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EpisodeĀ 11-21-2025
Pro and nanobanana Pro. We have generated an image of the Aura Farm the world trying to understand a barnyard map. A barnyard sort of an AI market map, but through the lens of a barnyard, because that's really what is going on in AI these days. Let's see. I think we need to zoom this out just a little bit to get it to line up, but we can show and we can take you on a tour of our. Our farm based market map to explain what's happening in the state of AI in November of 2025. Tyler, do you want to take us through it? Sure, yeah. I mean, so we like to use a lot of animal idioms on this show. A lot of these you might recognize. But we've kind of expanded out to try to cover all the major players and, you know, so. Yes. So this was made with nanobananapro. Very extremely good model. But you will notice as you get more and more complex, it gets a little bit sloppy. There's some slop in some places. Okay. But broadly, I think it did a very good job. Had a lot of fun making this. Yeah. Before Nana Banana Pro was released, we would have needed to hire somebody that maybe illustrates children's books. And if they were an expert, maybe they could have whipped something together in a day. This took you far longer than that of prompting over and over and over. But I'm very pleased with the outcome. Yeah. Okay, so I guess let's just kind of go through each of the animals. Maybe let's just start with some of the more obvious ones, the ones we've talked about a lot on the show. So let's start over here with the piggies. So here we see the pigs at the slop trough. Who's there? And so this is probably. This is just label as meta. You can imagine a lot of people here. Right. You could see Sora here. Sure. Bill Peebles. Bill Peebles could be, you know, eating some slop. Yes. Meta vibes. Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, just like broadly, AI in general. Some people think basically all AI is slop. They do, they do. There's been a lot of criticism. Yeah. But I think that one's fairly clear. You don't want to be at the. You don't want to be the pig of the slop trough. Although sometimes maybe the profitability of being a slop farmer is underrated. Obviously, America has a lot of pigs that live at the trough. They eat from the trough. Eventually the pigs go to slaughter. They become bacon. They are sold into the economy you can make a good living as a farmer who maintains a truck. And then there's the Jeremy Geffon take, which is we hate slop now because we know that in a few years it will no longer be slop. Count out, don't count out the piggies yet. This is the sloppiest slop will ever be. That's true. That's true. Okay, who else is on this marketplace? So then let's move up. Let's see. We have the hen house here. Yes. And who's in the hen house is the fox. The fox. Right. And so this, you can say is kind of oracle in Saint Altland, right? Oracle is the hen house. Yes. They let the fox in. They're letting the fox in a little bit, potentially. Yeah. We'll see what ends up happening. But again, now that I'm looking at this image, the fox isn't actually in the hen house yet, but he's kind of circling it. Yeah, he's circling the hen house. And there's a question of, of how, how, how far into the hen house has the fox. And I think it's. It's notable that the chickens don't seem too disturbed yet. Yes, yes. Yeah, yeah, they're getting along because the fox could just be browsing, could just be stopping by. Could be friendly, friendly, friendly fox. Yeah, but, but of course it is. If you have a, if you have a lot of cash flow as a big company, if you have the ability to borrow billions or hundreds of billions in the debt market, you have to protect your hen house because foxes might come by and might want to use you to co. Sign a loan. Yep. Okay, so then we see the cash cow. The cash cow. This is Nvidia. The only profits in AI for a long time. I don't know if anyone has really unseated them. They're certainly the most profitable by far. I think for a long time they were making more than 100% of the profits across everything. Everyone else was losing money. Yeah. Now you're starting to see maybe some cracks with TPUs. Okay. But even then, I mean, they're still. It'S still a cash cow. We just saw. They just. Yeah, they just beat earnings. I mean, we have, we have an article here from the journal. Nvidia Results fail to quell AI worries. Not enough people are milking the cash cow. I think I gave you the perfect. Or maybe, maybe the cash. I gave you the perfect quarter. I know. And you still sold off 60 billion or something in revenue. Yeah, maybe the cash cow has Been overly milked and is out of milk. At this point, but I think it's still producing. I think it does seem like it's still producing. That looks like a healthy cow to me. That looks like a. The crown on the cow in particular definitely helps out there. All right, moving over. What do we have going on here? So here we have the bull in the China shop. The bull. And that's Elon. I think there's a couple ways you could read into this. So Elon, one is just kind of on the. Maybe the data center infrastructure side, where he's kind of the bull. He's. Imagine that you're a contractor and you're building data centers for these companies, and then you see Elon come in and he does it in eight months. What took you in a year and a half? Yep. He's kind of messing up your world, right? Totally, totally. He's like, oh, man, this bull, he's messing up my business. I need to be working way harder, way faster. Because he's also shipping features so fast. Like, before people could even have a discussion over adult content, it was like, boom, Annie here. Here it is, Valentine. So this is so fast. This is the other way you could say, is the bull. Because there's kind of this maybe unspoken. Unspoken rule between the model companies where it's like, okay, we don't want to go too hard into the. The companion space. There were companies doing that, but they weren't. It wasn't the opening eyes. It wasn't the anthropics, wasn't the Geminis. Yeah. And then now you. Now you see a frontier model actually moving into their. Also, you know, Grok is of course, the maximally truth seeking LLM. Just yesterday I was asking Grok who is the strongest CEO in tech, and it told me that Elon Musk is the strongest by far. And it actually compared him to a bull. It said he was stronger than a bull and that he could beat a bull in a fight if he went head to head. I believe it. With his bare hands. Absolutely right. Yes. Absolutely right. Right. What else is going on here? I bet Claude would agree. If you really pressed Claude on it, they'd say, yeah, you're absolutely right. You're absolutely right. Who else is gone? So let's move down here we have the lipstick on a pig, and I think you could say is Apple intelligence. Yes. Right. I mean, although I feel like this is actually almost flipped a little bit. Right. Because the pig is usually like the ugly thing and then you add the makeup to make it look nicer. Yeah, but. Well, I think that's what they did here, right? They took a bad model and they dressed it up and they said it was great and they said you should buy a new iPhone because of it. And the model was bad. And, and there's no amount of marketing that is, you could like change public perception once the product hit the market. You could also run the, the, the pig is the privacy focused iPhone ecosystem that is pretty difficult to just run in and throw AI on top of. Like Apple has been building a brand around. We don't access your data, we don't store your data. We would never train on your data. And, and that put them in an awkward position where they couldn't just snap their fingers and deliver a great AI experience. Whereas Google has been, hey, you know, we'll give you Gmail for free, but we'll also, you know, probably train on wherever you go on the web and try and understand and route ads to you appropriately. Meadow is in a similar position. And so those two companies were a little bit more equipped to just on day one go and go and deliver AI features. Apple had to put lipstick on their pig, which is their privacy focusing more. Of like an afterthought. It was more of a kind of shallow integration and then hopefully we'll see with marketing. The marketing for Apple intelligence felt like they were. It felt like a lot of makeup on top of something. It was not. A lot of. It was not a foundational rewrite of iOS in any way. Not a lot of substance. It didn't feel like an entirely new thing. It just felt like little lipstick all over the place. Yeah. And then before we go over there, let's go up here we have the rooster. Yeah, that's Jordy's cockatoodle do. This is Jordy calling the top every morning. Every morning. Every morning he wakes up and he comes on the show. 11:00am Sharpie calls the top. He says this is. It's actually over now. It's so over. It's never been done. You call the top every day. Eventually you'll get. Eventually you'll be correct. It's true. Eventually you'll be correct. Okay, what else do we have? So then we have the dark horse. The dark horse. And this is ssi. Okay. We're still yet to see anything really. From ssi Elia just charging around in the background. Yes. Yeah. Kind of this mysterious figure still hanging out there. It's kind of, I mean, like, so the big kind of departures from OpenAI. It was Mira Muradi and Ilia, you could say yes. And Miriam Roddy's company, Think Machines. I mean, they're. They're raising up rounds. They have. They have blog posts. Yeah, they do actually have a product. They do have a product. Let's hear it for. Why did you tell me earlier? Why. Why'd you bury the lead? They have blog posts. They're good blog posts. I like. So in a couple of years we could be seeing vibrels, Is that what you're saying? We could be seeing videos. So they do have a product. Right. It's like RL fine tuning. Watch your head. There's a hoof. The horse is really, really about to hit you. Okay. But I mean, they're not really dark horse. Like you can. They're a bright horse. I don't know if that's a phrase, but like, you can see what they're doing. A slide's tail or a beautiful style. They're a unicorn 50 times over. 50 times over. Yeah. We didn't put a unicorn on here. That's an animal. Maybe for the next video. After a certain point, I couldn't add any more. It would just. It would get too sloppy. Okay, what else do we have? What else is going on in the Aura farm? So here we see another horse. Yes. And there's two ways you could look into this horse. One is, is this phrase, look a gift horse in the mouth. Yes. Right. Do you want to explain this, John? Yes. So do you know this phrase? You don't know this phrase, looking at horse in the mouth. Okay, so looking a gift horse in the mouth is if someone gives like. A term that was thrown around in the 80s. Yeah, yeah. This is, this is back in my day. Back in my day. So obviously just giving someone a horse. A horse is a valuable asset today, but also hundreds of years ago, it's always been a valuable tool. On the, on the. And the way that you assess the quality of a horse, one way to assess whether it's been taken care of, whether it's healthy, is to look in its mouth. Always look a gift horse in the mouth. No, never look to get. Never look a gift horse. Oh. Because it would be offensive. It's offensive. If I show up after you get the gift later. Imagine after they leave. Imagine if I got you a GT3RS and you're like popping the hood and. You'Re like, okay, let me track this. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You're feeling the tide. Oh, I don't know about this. It's not that good. Oh, it Only has, it only has 2,000 miles on it. But they're around the Nurburgring. Exactly, exactly. That would be looking at GT3RS in the tread. You don't look in the tread because, you know, yes, if I gave you a horse, just be happy that I gave you a horse. You know, don't look, don't look in the mouth. Don't assess it. And so what's happening with that? Yeah, it's like you're not expressing gratitude. So I think this, these are just. The public market investors. Right. We've been given this gift of why. Are they selling their stocks right now? Why are they selling. They've been giving. They need to be buying this beautiful. Gift and they just don't want it. Yeah, they're selling their videos down. Yeah, they beat earnings, guys. Why are you not buying the dip? They need to be buying more. They need to be levering up. They need to be going further into the public markets with every dollar they have. Not financial advice at all, but instead. They are looking at gift horse in the mouth saying, oh, can. Can the. Can OpenAI afford the. All the different $1.4 trillion. The guy for the job is, Is. The Google, you know, is Google set up to, to actually take advantage of AI? They're digging in a little bit too much. They should just be happy that they've been given AI the next megatrend. Exactly. So also the horse could be a workhorse. A workhorse. Right. And so I think you could say this is Amazon. Yeah, it's a bit hard to define Amazon's AI strategy. Part of it is they're building data centers for anthropic. But they're definitely not getting overly ambitious. They're not like, you know, getting over their skis, but they're just doing the hard work. They're building the data centers. They're serving. Yeah, serving models. Maybe not fast enough. They might not be building the data centers fast enough. They might not be super aggressive. They're not, they're not, they're not show jumping. They're just, they're just dragging the plow. But they are consistently dragging all reliable Amazons cooking along. They're, they're, they're staying out of the, they're staying out of the slop trough. They're not doing a deal. Amazon has not done a deal yet with OpenAI for the agent to commerce thing. Maybe that changes. But for now, they're just plodding along. Who else we got here? Let's go to the black sheep. The black sheep so black sheep. There's also a lot of people that could fit in this. Yes, of course. But I think maybe Karpathy is one of them. Yeah, right. Some of these contrarian takes about. Maybe it's the decade of agents. To be clear, we're not calling him a sheep. He's not. It should be more of a black wolf. Black wolf. But the idea is that he's standing out A lot of people in his, in his class of, of ultra respected, you know, technologists, some of the, you know, most experienced. He's really been at Tesla. He's seen the AI wave. He's been working in it for decades. He's really worked on this. Printed. Yes, it. Yeah. He's done so much not sitting with the rest of them saying he broke. But he broke rank. Even though he's worked at Open Air, even though he's worked at Tesla, he broke rank. He went on the Dwarkesh Patel show and said, you know what, I think we're more. In a decade of agents, I think AGI might not be right around the corner. He took a contrarian stance at a very controversial time and he. But it was not. Yeah. And he popped the bubble with it. He basically popped the bubble with it. We'll see the bubble with it. Of course, the elephant in the room. The elephant in the room was, in my view, really more of the 1.4 trillion. Right. That was the question. That was the big question. That was what everybody wanted to talk about or at least understand better. Frad asked the question and it's been downhill ever since. Yes. And it is. Yeah. The elephant in the room is in every conversation, every, every financing round at this point. Exactly. Is, is this, is this deal predicated on a continuation of exponential growth in investment in everything. Like how much more, how risky is this relative to the amount of froth in the market? Yeah. Never ask a woman her age, a man, his salary, or a lab founder how they're gonna spend 1.4 trillion. Yeah. Or how they're gonna pay for it. Yeah. Yep. What else we got on here? So then in the top, right, we have the bird's eye view. Yes. Situational awareness. Yeah, this is situational awareness. This is Leopold. It's the perfect name. Right. He has the situational awareness. He's seeing everything. He's kind of the master of the board. Yes. He's taking his bets and he's been doing pretty well off them. Yes, yes, yes. Yeah, that one's pretty self explanatory. Yeah. Ok, so then we go down we have lion's share. The lion's share. This is Satya. Satya taken great position. I'll take. I don't know why, I'll take a third of the company and you can give me 250 billion and I'll take 20% off the top and I'll take. All the IP as well. Yeah, everything. Also take your chips and I'll make it my chip. Your chip is my chip. The entire chip is not your chip. The chip as me chip. The entire OpenAI Microsoft deal is basically could just be summarized in one line. I get the lion's share. I get the lion's share. And that's what he did. It's fantastic. Incredible, incredible dealmaker. So let's go down here and we. See and we can zoom out a little bit. Yep. What do we have? Monkey business. These are the podcasters. That's us. We're having fun. Yep. We got props. We got all sorts of stuff. Sound effects. We need some monkey sound effects on there. We have a bunch of animal themed sound effects we need to have more fun with anyway. And then maybe let's go into the pond. We have the sitting duck. Yes. The sitting duck is incredibly cute. So Reddit. Why was Reddit a sitting duck? Yeah, so I think they brought it. It's because whether or not you have a permit, you're getting like the hunters are going to get you. I think Alexis Ohanian sort of laid this out, saying that when Reddit did the deal to give the data to OpenAI, they didn't realize how valuable that data was going to be. And that relationship has grown, grown, grown. And so they were kind of the sitting duck just sitting there. They didn't really kind of got caught off guard. Maybe could have trained their own model on their data internally. Maybe could have, you know, maybe had something that was more, more of a valuable resource where they, they would have had more leverage if they'd waited a little bit. But it is crazy that core weave and Reddit are sitting at roughly the same market cap now. Very interesting. Yeah. Which one is more valuable over the next couple years? I don't know. Yeah, I mean, I feel like Reddit has mostly been, you know, they've kind of already gone out to the slaughter in a sense. Like every model company has trained on. You think so? But look at the market cap. It just keeps going up. Like Reddit's been. I mean, Reddit was sold for $5 million or something when it launched. Like, it's been. It was 10, it was 10. It was 10 to Conde Nast. 10 to Conde Nast. That's a crazy, crazy low valuation. And then eventually spun out. And then for a long time it was in the hundreds of millions and no one was thinking, this is a tens of billions. For a long time, like people, the narrative was not, oh, yeah, this will be orders of magnitude more than Snap. Yeah, no way. No way. And then. And then it just sort of finally came together. So then the headless chicken. Yeah, let's go down a little bit. And we have the headless chicken. This is perplexity. Perplexity. So I think perplexity, you know, they have a lot of different strategies. Some of them kind of seem opposed to each other. Right. Maybe they're doing a browser. Maybe they're doing a Bloomberg Terminal. Maybe they're rebuilding Yahoo Finance. Maybe they're building the browser. The browser. To their credit, I do see more positive reviews of their browser than any. Of the other AI browsers from independent folks or from. Yeah, independent, independent people. We've had a lot of investors come on the show and say, like, I love the browser, but it's hard to take that seriously. Every investor that's invested in a browser says their browser is the best browser. I don't listen to what they say, but I've just repeatedly seen people saying, like, the Perplexity browser is great. So, yeah, whether or not that means a win. But. But the headless chicken thing, going over and giving, you know, $400 million to Snapchat kind of, you know, I don't know. I think a lot of people. Good, good for Snapchat, maybe. There's just a lot of stuff going on. It's the Snapchat deal, the trying to buy TikTok, trying to buy Chrome, launching a venture fund, Bloomberg Terminal. It's like, are you competing with all of these? Really? You're going to be TikTok and Chrome and Bloomberg and the next thing and see the next great company. It is just a lot. It's a lot to process. Yeah. Like, headless chicken is kind of like a fun thing to watch. And then people, you know, love to talk about perplexity. They love to say, like, oh, we're all short Perplexity. That's true. Yeah. It's become consensus. Yeah. But let them cook. We'll see what happens. Yeah. So then if we go down a little bit, we have the snake and the grass. Have you guys ever witnessed headless Chicken? No, I haven't. Growing up in the country, I have. You grew up in the country? I Thought you grew up with the East Bay rationalists. I was born in Berkeley, but I grew up in wine country. Oh, okay. And I have fortunately, unfortunately, watched my father take one of the chickens. You know, every now and again a chicken needs to be. To move on to the next chapter. And as a child. You sound like you're firing the chicken. Very amicable split. I mean, we're wishing. We're wishing the chicken the. I mean, yes, it's. It happens. The next chapter. I will say that it is a real thing. They run for, you know, at least 20 seconds or so. And I'll never forget it. Well, before we move on, let me tell you about Cognition, the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. Okay, let's continue. Okay, so next we have the snake in the grass. Snake in the grass. This is the Chinese open source models, right? These are kind of lurking. I still don't really see that much coverage of Chinese open source models. Nobody wants, nobody wants to talk about. Well, no one has bags, so they can't pump them. Yeah, it's almost, it's a, it's a elephant in the room to some degree. So, so this is where I sort of disagree with you because snake in the grass feels like it's going to attack. Elephant in the room means we got to address it. It's totally possible that the entire open source LLM ecosystem is just like, yeah, there's like a $10 billion business there. It's sort of like, you know, a stalking horse. Another, another animal based analogy. But it's sort of a stocking horse for like hey, Gemini and, and anthropic. Like if you guys don't lower your prices, we will go to the open source option. And that's sort of what Linux, how Linux works. It's like that, that you can kind of bid the closed source models against the open source models. But for all like the doomer takes around like, oh, Chinese open source, like one day they're just gonna snap their fingers and all the Manchurian candidates are gonna activate in America. I think everyone's gonna be like, I. Didn'T realize I was using Quad. And now I believe that nothing happened on Tiananmen Square. I don't believe that. It's more of a threat to the, It's a, it's a very real threat to the business models of some of the closed source models. Maybe. I don't know. Again, it's certainly a pressure. Kimmy is hot on everyone's tails. I mean Brian Chesky, he was talking about. Yeah, Brian Chesky. The other thing is a soft power thing. Ask a Chinese open source model about Tiananmen Square. I just don't think that's going to be that big of a deal. Like, I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't see, those are two very different things. Like, one is like Brian Chasky inside of Open. Inside of Airbnb becomes a big deal. If they proliferate all over the world and it's. And, and I'm not saying it's the end of the world. No, no, no. What I'm saying is that with TikTok, if you're a business owner like Airbnb and you're like Brian Chesky at Airbnb, if. And you're deciding between, Kimmy, you know, some open source model, like deeper in the stack, like, you're not, you're not surfacing something that has like, cultural relevancy or like, or like some sort of like, you know, where American values come through. Like you're using it for like fraud detection or you're using it to like transform every Airbnb listing into like grammar check. Every listing that comes through, like spell check it all. Like you're doing something that's very commoditized and it's not, it's not this weird thing where you're going to inject the, the, like, the, the values of the Chinese people. I just see that as two separate things now. Now if you had a whole bunch. Of people that LLM be the new, are effectively globally going to be history books. And if you have some control. So that's true. Is the application layer at the application, at the application layer that matters. So I would be maybe more worried if it was like, oh, it turns out that OpenAI is going to just use deep seq now under the hood. That would even work. I'm even talking globally. A bunch of different application layer companies use these models because they're cheap and good and then they have a very specific point of view that's not necessarily aligned to the West. I just think that point of view is irrelevant in many, many automation use cases, for sure. I'm not worried about airbnb using Chinese models for, for like business process automation. Yeah, I also think you can, I think you can probably kind of fine tune a lot of that stuff out totally. Because like the, you know, back to. Perplexity, they did it. Did they do deep seq 1776 or something like that? Yeah. I also did that you did that. I did that actually, before then. So it's whatever. But it's whatever. Okay. Now we see it's personal. That's why you put perplexity there, because you got an axe to grind. Yeah, I did it before they did. But, like, the genuine square stuff is probably just to fine tune that they, like, made it more Chinese. Yeah, yeah. So you can just undo that. Yeah, exactly. I agree. One would assume anyway, but yeah. Okay, so we agree it's a snake in the grass, but unclear how poisonous the snake is. Unclear the size of that snake. Yeah. Anyway, let's move on. Let's move. Who's the early bird that got the worm? The early bird that got the worm. There's no sign here. That's kind of an artifact of the nanobanana Pro, but early bird that got the worm. This is Josh Kushner. I think so. Right. I like. He got the worm. The worm is OpenAI. Yes. He was very early investor. Early with size. Early with size. Doubled down many times. Yeah. He got the worm. He's the early bird. Incredible. Yeah. Okay. Why is anthropic Donkey work. Donkey work. I'm not 100% sure that this is, like, a real phrase, apparently. I was asking Tyler coinage. I asked GBT 4.5, and I asked Gemini 3 Pro. Okay. And they both said it was a real thing. Okay. It's boring or laborious. Part of a job. It's drudgery. Donkey work. Yeah. So I think there's a lot of ways you could do anthropic. Yeah. Anthropic's all over the place. So in this case, I think it's kind of that Anthropic has gone very hard on coding and API and enterprise. Okay. The laborious work. It's kind of laborious. Yeah. Yeah. They're not doing, like, the really hot, sexy. Like, they're not doing a browser. They're not doing solving science. Yeah. They're not doing consumer science stuff. Yeah. They're doing the donkey work. This is good. Okay. I think it's some of the more laborious stuff, but there's a lot of ways you could. Dario's sitting there being like, who's gonna take all the jobs? Who's gonna take all the jobs? But you could do anthropic as the scapegoat. Right. David Sacks really does not like anthropic. That's true. Right. They're kind of a scapegoat a little bit. They never get invited to the White House. Right. They're the lame Duck. Lame duck. Is that a no? Lame duck is when the president. Oh wait, it's the second term. Forget about ugly duckling. Ugly duckling a little bit. That's the one. I'm thinking there's a little bit of Chicken Little. The sky has fallen. Scaredy cats. Scaredy cats. They're worried about safety. There's a few of these, but I like donkey work that. That feels the most accurate for what they're doing. They're going after the entry level white collar workers. They're doing the donkey work. Yeah. Google just love this image. This is the last one. Google is the fat cat. Before we had Google search snail's pace, I think this would have been true maybe a year ago. Fat cat's so much funnier. Look at that cat. It's so fat. I love it. All the cash flow. All the TPUs. All the TPUs. They're GPU rich. They're rich in every sense. They have a ton of researchers they're releasing. I mean now they have the best image model, the best text model. Depending on what benchmark you look at. They're on top of the world. Yeah. Okay. Slightly concerned. We have a sign for golden goose. But there's no golden goose. Was removed. But the sign remains. Who stole the golden goose? Yeah. Who killed the golden goose? Or is there just no gold? If there's no golden goose in the AI barnyard, is that bearish? I think one take, maybe the golden goose. Wait. So first establish what the golden goose is. The golden goose is a goose that lays a golden egg. One every day. And in the parable in the story, the farmer kills the golden goose to get all of the gold inside. But it is revealed that by killing the goose, you no longer get the passive income from the golden eggs. So it's jack from the beanstalk. Studied. It's being a little bit too greedy. But we couldn't land on who the golden goose was. Maybe one take is the golden goose. They were the Neo clouds. And then the market is hurting, is taking the goose away. Core. We've not in the past what month they've been selling off Core Weave continues. To lay golden eggs. But the market got overheated and so that sort of killed the gains or something. And the gold is the GPUs. Subsidized GPUs. I don't know. In the data center. It's not quite. There's something with the bitcoin miners that just had a lot of energy that they had effectively prepaid for that. They're unlocking some value from. Oh, well. Oh, well. But I think that's all of them. I think this is. Yeah, this is a pretty. Now it's pretty clear. This helps you understand how AI is playing out. There's no more questions. No more questions. If you, if you can. If you can see this infographic, it really makes everything crystal clear. Crystal clear. That's great. Well, thank you for taking us through that. Great work, Tyler. And let me tell you about adeo, the AI native CRM. ADEO builds scales and grows your company to the next level. And get started. One company that didn't make the cut for our infographic was, of course, amd. And fortunately, there is a great profile in the Wall Street Journal.
At least 20 seconds or so and I'll never forget it. Well, before we move on, let me tell you about Cognition. The makers of Devon, the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. Okay, let's continue. Okay, so next we have the snake in the grass. Snake in the grass. This is the Chinese open source models, right? These are kind of lurking. I still don't really see that much coverage of Chinese open source models out there. Nobody wants to talk about it. Well, no one has bags so they can't pump them. Yeah, it's almost an. It's a, it's a elephant in the room to some degree. So, so this is where I sort of disagree with you because snake in the grass feels like it's going to attack elephant in the room means we got to address it. It's like it's totally possible that the entire open source LLM ecosystem is just like, yeah, there's like a $10 billion business there. It's sort of like, you know, a stalking horse. Another, another animal based analogy. But it's sort of a stalking horse for like hey Gemini and anthropic, like if you guys don't lower your prices, we will go to the open source option. And that's sort of what Linux, how Linux works. It's like you can kind of bid the closed source models against the open source models. But for all like the doomer takes around like oh, Chinese open source, like one day they're just going to snap their fingers and all the Manchurian candidates are going to activate in America. I think everyone's going to be like. I didn't realize I was using Quad and now I believe that nothing happened on Tian Square. It's like I don't believe it's more. Of a threat to the. It's a very real threat to the business models of some of the closed source models. Maybe. I don't know. Again, it's putting, it's certainly a pressure. Kimmy is hot on everyone's tails. I mean Brian Chesky he was talking about. Yeah, Brian Chesky. The other thing is a soft power thing. Ask a Chinese open source model about Tiananmen Square. I just don't think that's going to be that big of a deal. I don't see. Those are two very different things. Like one is like Brian Chasky inside of Open, inside of Airbnb becomes a. Big deal if they proliferate all over the world. And I'm not saying it's the end of the world. No, no, no. What I'm saying is that with TikTok, if you're a business owner, like Airbnb, and you're like Brian Chesky at Airbnb and you're deciding between Kimi, you know, some open source model, like deeper in the stack, like, you're not surfacing something that has like, cultural relevancy or like, or like some sort of like, you know, where American values come through. Like you're using it for like, fraud detection, or you're using it to like transform every Airbnb listing into like, grammar check every listing that comes through. Like, spell check it all. Like you're doing something that's very commoditized. And it's not. It's not this weird thing where you're gonna inject the, the, like the values of the Chinese people. I just see that as two separate things now. Now, if you had a whole. I just think that LLM will be the new. Are effectively globally going to be history books. And if you have some control. So that's true. Is the application layer at the application. I think at the application layer that matters. So I would be maybe more worried if it was like, oh, it turns out that OpenAI is going to just use Deep SEQ now under the hood. Sure. I'm even talking globally. A bunch of different application layer companies use these models because they're cheap and good and then they have a very specific point of view that's not necessarily aligned to the West. I just think that point of view is irrelevant in many, many automation use cases, for sure. I'm not worried about Airbnb using Chinese models for. For like business process automation. Yeah. I also think you can. I think you can probably kind of fine tune a lot of that stuff out totally. Because, like the, you know, back to perplexity. They did it. Didn't they do deepseek 1776 or something like that? Yeah, I also did that. You did that? I did that actually before that. So it's whatever. But it's whatever. Okay, now you see, it's personal. That's why you put perplexity there, because you got an axe to grind. I did it before they did, but. Like, the genuine square stuff is probably just a fine tune that they, like, made it more Chinese. Yeah, yeah. So you can just undo that. Yeah, exactly. I agree. One would assume anyway, but yes. So we agree it's a snake in the grass, but unclear how poisonous the snake is. Unclear the size of that snake. Yeah. Anyway, let's move on. Let's move to who's the early bird that got the worm. The early bird that got the worm. There's no sign here. That's kind of an artifact of the Nano Banana Pro. But the early bird that got the worm. This is Josh Kushner. I think so. Right. I like. He got the worm. The worm is OpenAI. Yes. He was very early investor. Early with size. Early with size. Doubled down many times. Yeah. He got the worm. He's the early bird. Incredible. Yeah. Okay. Why is anthropic. Donkey work. Donkey work. What does donkey work mean? 100% sure that this is, like, a real phrase. Apparently. I was asking. This is a Tyler coinage. I asked GPT 4.5 and I asked Gemini 3 Pro. Okay. And they both said it was a real thing. Okay. It's boring or laborious. Part of a job. It's drudgery. Donkey work. Yeah. So I think there's a lot of ways you could do anthropic. Yeah. Anthropic is all over the place. So in this case, I think it's kind of. That Anthropic has gone very hard on coding and API and enterprise. Okay. Okay. The laborious work. It's kind of laborious. Yeah. Yeah. They're not doing, like, the really hot, sexy. Like, they're not doing a browser. They're not doing solving science. Yeah. They're not doing consumer science stuff. Yeah. They're doing the donkey work. This is good. Okay. I think it's some of the more laborious stuff. There's a lot of ways you could do that. Dario's sitting there being like, who's gonna take all the jobs? Who's gonna take all the jobs? But you could do anthropic as the scapegoat. Right. David Sacks really does not like anthropic. That's true. Right. They're kind of a scapegoated a little bit. They never get invited to the White House. They're the lame duck. Lame duck. Is that a no? Lame duck is when the President is. Yeah, that's the second term. Ugly duckling. Ugly duckling a little bit. That's the one. I'm thinking there's a little bit of Chicken Little. The sky has fallen. Scaredy cats. Scaredy cats. Scaredy cats. Don't worry about safety. There's a few of these, but I like donkey work. That feels the most accurate for what they're doing. They're going after the entry level white collar workers. They're doing the donkey work. Google. I just love this image. This is the last one. Google is the fat cat Google is the fat guy. Before we had Google, snail's pace, I think this would have been true maybe a year ago. Fat cat's so much funnier. Look at that cat. It's so fat. I love it. All the cash flow, all the TPUs. All the TPUs. They're GPU rich. They're rich in every sense. They have a ton of researchers they're releasing. I mean, now they have the best image model, the best text model, depending on what benchmark you look at. They're on top of the world. Yeah. Okay. Slightly concerned. We have a sign for golden goose. But there's. Golden goose was removed. But the sign remains. Who stole the golden goose? Yeah. Who killed the golden goose? Or is there just no gold? If there's no golden goose in the AI barnyard, is that bearish? I think one take, maybe the golden goose. Wait, so first establish what the golden goose is. The golden goose is a goose that lays a golden egg. One every day. And in the parable in the story, the farmer kills the golden goose to get all of the gold inside. But it is revealed that by killing the goose, you no longer get the passive income from the golden eggs. So it's jack from the beanstalk. Studied. It's being a little bit too greedy. But we couldn't land on who the golden goose was. Maybe one take is the golden goose. They were the neoclouds. And then the market is hurting. Hurting is taking the goose away. Core, we've not in the past what month they've been selling off Core weave. Continues to lay golden eggs. But the market got overheated and so that sort of killed the gains or something. And the gold is the GPUs. Subsidized GPUs. I don't know. In the data center, it's not quite. There's something with the bitcoin miners that just had a lot of energy that they had effectively prepaid for that they're unlocking some value from. Oh, well. Oh, well. But I think that's all of them. I think this is a. Yeah, this is a pretty. Now it's pretty clear. This helps you understand how AI is playing out. There's no more questions. No more questions. If you. If you can. If you can see this infographic, it really makes everything crystal clear. Crystal clear. That's great. Well, thank you for taking us through that. Great work, Tyler. And let me tell you about Adeo, the AI native CRM. Adeo builds scales and grows your company to the next level. Can get started one company that didn't make the cut for our infographic was of course amd. And fortunately there is a great profile in the Wall Street Journal of Lisa Su, the CEO of amd. And let's pull this up because this is a fantastic picture minus a very. Weird reflection going on. Very weird reflection in the glass. And so if you zoom in on this, there's something that is right in her nose that looks like a bugger or something. It's a very odd choice of image. Of course, it's just a reflection on the glass, the photo, otherwise the way she's positioning herself, it's powerful. She did her job. Everything looks great from her perspective. She looks great, but the photographer just didn't quite catch that one reflection. And so it just gives a very odd look. But anyway, let's dig into the article the chip CEO staring down Nvidia and talk of an AI bubble At a board meeting in late 2022, Lisa Su, chief executive of chip designer AMD, announced that she was radically changing course. Quote. I'm going to pivot the entire company, she told the directors gathered around a boardroom table at the company's Austin campus. The rise of AI was a once in a lifetime opportunity, she said, and the company had to put a AI at the center of its entire product line. Three years later, the Santa Clara, California based company has nearly quadrupled in size, its market value rising from 90 billion to more than 3,35 billion. Despite a recent pullback, AMD strategy of positioning itself at the center of the global AI race has paid off handsomely, making sue into a billionaire and her company into one of the only viable designers of powerful chips needed to to power advanced AI models. In a market that has recently been completely dominated by Nvidia, sue is showing that there may be a place for a strong number two that can compete. Insane flow, by the way. Check this out. Yeah, look at that. She's 56 years old. She has a PhD in electrical engineering from MIT and a deep understanding of the physics behind her company's products. She developed a reputation as a giant slayer by out competing market leader Intel a decade ago to take the lead in producing central processing units or cpu. Now she's staring down the ultimate Goliath in Nvidia, the world's most valuable company and the foremost maker of the chips that power AI data centers. AMD will have to deliver on its promise to produce chips that are comparable to Nvidia's. Most of the Staring down her own cousin, it is true. Investors bid up AMD's stock price in October after the company announced a marquee deal with Oracle and OpenAI, which have both agreed to buy tens of thousands of AMD's newest generation of chips, known as the Mi 450. Micah says the Jensen Sue Thanksgiving must be wild. I wonder if they're, if they're close. Enough to actually have things their first cousins once removed. Yeah, I think at that point it. Just depends on how hard you go for Thanksgiving. Some people have, you know, how big is your Thanksgiving? Do you go home? I have a, I have a pretty. Small, I have a pretty small family too. My, my in laws, we're still doing, we're, we're talking 20 people maybe is like a typical Thanksgiving. But I know there are some people that are like, yeah, let's get 100 people together, let's turn it into Woodstock, which I'm down for, honestly. It's fun. Maybe you need, you know what you need to do this Thanksgiving? You need to get everyone who's cooking for your Thanksgiving dinner on Linear. It's the system for modern software development. It's a purpose built tool for planning and building products. The product you're building this Thanksgiving is a beautiful, bountiful feast. It's a feast folks, and you need Linear to help you plan who's doing what. Who's making the pumpkin pie? Who's making the cranberry sauce. Can you assign tickets? Can you close those tickets? Are you using AI agents? Are you using AI agents? I think that there's something here. Everyone wants to build coding agents, nobody wants to build FEAST agents and I think that's wrong. Get on Linear. I love it. The OpenAI deal turbocharged the roadmap, said Sue. It represents a huge vote of confidence in the MI4 450, which of course we've seen from semi analysis is performing very well and AMD has caught up a ton this year. They've just been on a tear, taking feedback from all over the tech industry, integrating it very quickly and actually outperforming Nvidia with certain models. And all of that's been chronicled by the folks over at Semianalysis in their inference Max model. So the growing AI market is a huge opportunity and we want to make sure that we have deep partnerships that enable to get us a big piece of that. The rest will handle itself. The deal making was on display again this week when the company said it would work with Cisco and Saudi Arabian AI venture firm and a Saudi Arabian AI venture firm to build a large cluster of data centers in the kingdom. Sue attended a black tie? I think so. Sue attended a black tie dinner for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman alongside other executives at the White House Tuesday, and AMD sent a representative to a US Saudi Arabia investment forum on Wednesday. Until now, data centers have mostly been entirely Nvidia's market. One tech analyst said AMD is in a position to take a more meaningful piece of that. So $1 trillion a year here. Let's get into it. At the heart of Sue's strategy is her belief that there is insatiable demand for computing power and that as the market for AI grows, the companies offering the best and most reliable AI infrastructure will thrive. She said she believes AI is not a zero sum game and that recent concerns about an overheated market for chips and data centers are exaggerated. In recent weeks, the massive spending on data centers have intensified concerns that an AI bubble is building. AMD stock, which had jumped nearly 60% in October, has fallen about 20% this month. I'm not concerned about an AI bubble, Sue said in the interview. I do think that those who are thinking that way are a bit too short sighted. They don't really see the power of the technology. It's actually only only down. I don't know exactly what this article is released, but 13¾ in the last. Month, yeah. Better than some others. This is not the time to stay on the sidelines and worry, hey, am I over investing? She said. It's much more dangerous if you underinvest than if you overinvest, in my opinion. Let's go. I love A year ago she predicted that the market for AI chips would hit 500 billion in sales annually by 2028. At investor presentation last week in New York, she was even more optimistic. The market for AI and data center computing, she said, will reach 1 trillion a year. It's, it's interesting that that she under predicted or seemingly under predicted because Jensen by himself is saying that he's that Nvidia has a line of sight to 500 in 2026. Half a trillion. And that's just for them. Revenue full year. Yeah, that is a lot of money. Well, very exciting. Well speaking of Nvidia, sue is also helping to capitalize on an inflection point in AI. Many executives in the chips industry, including Nvidia chief Jensen Huang, expect demand to shift from clusters designed to assist in large training runs to inference. And inference doesn't require chips with as much computing muscle as training does. According to the Wall street journal, as AI models like ChatGPT and Gemini become increasingly integrated into daily life and as companies design thousands of enterprise software tools that rely on AI models for inference functions, is about to go up by a billion times, wong said last month. Swong and sue and Wong are distant cousins, but they didn't meet until both were established executives. That's interesting. So I don't think they'll be hanging out at Thanksgiving together if they're, if they're, if they just met recently. But maybe, maybe. Unless that's just a story and they've their entire family. Both their family lines have been colluding to corner the AI chip market for generations. It does feel like a a storyline from Dune or something. AMD has a strong line of inferencing inference computing chips, but has struggled to design chips powerful enough to compete with Nvidia in training. Let's see, they go into a little bit of her backstory. She was Taiwan born, Queens raised. She worked for IBM where she focused on designing products according to the needs of big customers. When she took over as CEO of AMD in 2014, the company had a market value of less than 3 billion. It's up 100x since then. She did deals with Chinese partners that helped stabilize the company's finances and move the chip designer deeper into the processors that powered PCs and data centers. Capitalizing on Intel's weakness today, AMD sells an estimated 41% of data center CPUs, up from essentially 0% five years ago. What a run. It was that success that allowed AMD's board of directors to trust sue when she proposed in that fateful board meeting in 2022 to pivot the company to go head to head with Nvidia. One of the board members attended said told this story. She had a vision around our ability to be AI from endpoint to data center and everything in between, said Tal Walker, one of the board members who attended the meeting. She had the conviction of the need and the need to move fast. What do you think about vision Jordi? Is it good that she had vision? I think vision is still underrated. Pro vision, pro vision. It's a hot take. People some people don't like vision, some people are anti vision these days. I think I land on the side of provision. I think it's important. Sue was able to dispense with intel as a competitor because intel had self inflicted wounds at Daniel Newman, CEO of research firm Futurum Group. That's in sharp contrast to Nvidia, a company that's expected more than 200 billion in revenue next year that has gotten thousands of AI developers hooked on the proprietary software that Nvidia chips rely on. But Nvidia can't make enough chips to keep up with demand. And the OpenAI deal prove that large AI companies are eager to diversify their supplier base. We got some, we got some major, major update here on Lisa Su as a celebrity. As AMD has become a bigger player, she's begun to embrace the spotlight. Earlier this year at an industry summit in Paris, sue was treated like a celebrity with many young women asking her to take selfies and sign autographs. That's, that's amazing. We, Jensen Huang was signing autographs a couple, couple months ago. That was this year, maybe it was. Like five, six months ago. That, that one. Well, now she's, now she's also signing, also signing autographs. As, as the, as the industry grows, more and more celebrities are minted. Well, in July, sue attended an AI summit where Trump rolled out his AI strategy. When she addressed the audience, sue pulled out one of the company's chips out of her pocket and said it had 185 billion transistors and took nine months to make. Such chip contain can cost tens of thousands of dollars. Trump later mentioned her in his speech as one of the notable executives in attendance. She was still in the shadow of Wong, however, who Trump asked to stand while the crowd applauded. What a job you've done, the President said to the Nvidia CEO. So he's like, he's like, thanks for Lisa Sud for being here, but let's give it up for Jensen Wong and he's given it up too much for Jensen. He's not having, you know, balanced approach. Well, I don't think it's necessarily his. Job to, well, ten times the market cap. Ten times the applause, perhaps. That's right. Market cap weighted by applause. Let's see. Over the next decade, AI will transform every industry, every business, every product, every interaction. Our chips are enabling this massive new revolution. Well, very, very interesting. I'd like, I would like to learn more about Lisa Su as a celebrity. I want to see more, more deep dives, more page six style writing is what I'm looking for. Maybe a New York Post cover. Exactly. A lot of, A lot of caught on the street out of like, you know, like, what type of coffee does she like? That's what we know we need to get, we need to get her in the Mansion section. Should we do some Mansion section? We do. We should. There's a big question in the Mansion section today. First, let me tell you about graphite.dev Code review for the Age of AI Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. The question I know everyone has been asking is, is 200 million the new $100 million in luxury real estate? What do you think? Many people have been asking that. So there's a $200 million house in Indian Creek, a $250 million house in Bel Air, a $300 million house in Aspen and a $205 million house in Palm Beach. And this is funny because I we have, we've reviewed like almost all of these houses. We've actually gold rock says Lisa Su on Hot Ones. That would be great. Maybe on Theo Vaughn as well. A surge of ultra rich buyers has pushed asking prices to new extremes. Yet many headline grabbing mega mansions languish on the market or trade for a fraction of their debut numbers. Just a decade ago, the 100 million price tag was still considered a new frontier for luxury real estate. The first nine figure home sale occurred in 2011. Wow. By 2019, there had been about 20 sales recorded at that price point. Now real estate insiders say a new price pricing benchmark is setting the tone for the high end market. 200 million. Since 2025, at least five major US properties have listed for 200 million or more, mostly concentrated in South Florida on Indian Creek, a private island near Miami Beach, Florida, often called the Billionaire Bunker, cosmetic surgeon Dr. Aaron Rowlands and his wife Marine Rowlands listed their unfinished waterfront estate for 200 million earlier this month. About 70 miles north in Palm Beach, a circa 2005 mansion once owned by the late Frank and Maureen Wilkins is asking 205 in Aspen, the longtime home of California billionaire Stuart and Linda resnick. Listed for 300. The listings raise the question, is this aspirational pricing or as the ranks of the global billionaires expand at a rapid clip, is it possible that the market, that the top of the market has actually doubled? I would say yes, it's totally possible. Look at the run up in the stock price. The assets are more valuable than ever. There's going to be a massive wave of wealth created from the AI boom. And I would not want to be in the market for a single family home within 20 square miles of OpenAI. Yeah, there was some post. I don't know if it made it in the timeline, but there was some post about there's like five, 40 people that are looking for houses in the five to $7 million range in North San Francisco and there's none for sale because all cash offers, I'm sure, from the. From the liquidity. Also, Porsche allocations are going to be pretty rough out there. You think so? I expect it. Did you see the electric in the chat? Says Lisa Su is a car enthusiast, drives a metallic blue graphite Porsche. Ooh, I like that. She apparently names them after her, after her chips. So she has cars. Ryzen, Epic and Radeon. That's cool. That's very fun. Yeah. This Resnick, this Bel air House, the 250. I remember digging into him and he was part of the telecom build out in 2001. And so even though his company went bankrupt, he still wound up with a fortune that allowed him to buy a huge house. You could think about the same thing happening in the AI world. Here's another note. AMD sponsors the Mercedes AMG F1 team, which has a new co owner, the CEO of CrowdStrike. So all eyes on George's team this weekend. We'll see how they do with their new co owner. Before we move on to our next story, let me tell you about FIN AI, the number one AI agent. AI that handles your customer support. The number one AI agent for customer service, Silicon Valley estate sells to mystery buyer. I want you to guess who it is, Jordy. I don't know. I want you to make wild guesses. Wild guesses. In California Silicon Valley, a roughly 12 acre estate designed in classical Italian style has sold for more than. Sold for $56 million. You can see that. There we go. Known as Via del Plato, the property is located in Portola Valley, one of the country's wealthiest towns. The sellers are venture capital investor Bandel Carano and his wife Paula Carano, who built the estate after buying the land in 2013 for 13.625 million, property records show. Hmm. Have you looked up Bandel Carano and what deals he did to be able to afford such a wonderful house? I would love to know the story of his venture capital work. The Koranos put the home on the market for $85 million in February. The most recent was asking price was 65. It went for 56. It's the priciest home to sell in Portola Valley to date. The prior record was 35 million for a 13 acre estate. The buyer, who currently lives in San Jose, searched for several years before purchasing the Portola Valley property, but they didn't want to name the client. The Kharanis didn't respond to request for comment. Massive mess. You gotta get. Andel Carano was an investor in Polycom Inc. The Polycom. No way. That's amazing. Well deserved. One of the most iconic conference call phones. We used to have one. We used to have one on our desk. It's probably in the studio. It was a prop that we used for a long time. I think it's in the back. You got to bring it back. We never actually used it. We wanted to have it. How long until somebody creates like an AI Polycom? I don't know. Yeah, we. That's so crazy. He, he, he did the deal in Polycom and made a bag. I love it. Listing agent said okay. They built after raising an old home, completing the project in 2021. In addition, the roughly 23,000 12,300 square foot main house property also has a pool, a pool house, and then another unfinished 5,000 square foot building has a ballroom and a wine cellar. Wow. There we go. They designed the property. He's a general partner at Oak Investment Partners, a venture capital firm with offices in Winton, Wilton, Connecticut, Menlo Park. In 2024, the Karanos listed a nearly 2,000 acre ranch outside of Bozeman, Montana. Portola Valley had a median sale price of 5.5 million. Interesting. What else is in here that we wanted to look at? So there is some articles on San Francisco. What's going on there? San Francisco is back after pandemic related struggles and growing up affluent young families demanding space have elevated the 94127 zip code which is anchored by the walkable West Portal Village center and encompasses desirable residential neighborhoods such as San Francis Wood. This west side pocket reliably offers a rare San Francisco luxury detached single family homes with yards. The suburbia in the city lifestyle has recently propelled the zip code to rival historically more expensive city enclaves. In October, its $2.5 million median listing price was second only to the 2.7 million dollar median price in Premier Address Pacific Heights. Interesting. So there are a bunch of shops, people are moving in. The median price per square foot is $952 and the houses are moving. 37 days on the market is all it takes for the median house to find a new buyer. Pretty good. Let me tell you about profound. Get your brand mentioned in ChatGPT. Reach millions of consumers who use AI to discover new products and brands. Should we let AI ruin the em dash? I think the game's over. It's over. I think AI has already ruined the EM dash. I think it's ruined. I think we have to move on from it entirely. But Joel Stein at the Wall Street Journal has another take. Joel says don't let AI ruin the EM dash and writes a defense of the newly controversial punctuation mark. So it's so funny because EM dashes are not even the way that I first identify a lot of AI writing. Like it's often the it's not this, it's that that hits way harder, Joel says. A few weeks ago, my 16 year old son Laszlo, a student journalist, received a tip for his school newspaper. A source had told him that the administration, which had banned all use of AI, had used it to write an email to parents. The email in question was certainly boring enough to be written by ChatGPT, but it was also boring enough to be written by a school administrator. We ran the text through two AI detection tools and both determined that there was a zero percent chance a computer wrote it. I don't know how a computer figures out if it's dealing with another computer, but I'm guessing it asks which of nine photos are motorcycles. So why did this source think AI had written it? Because the email contained EM dashes. The EM dash of punctuation mark, a bit longer than a hyphen that denotes a long pause, has become the black light on the hotel sheets for AI shamers. A sign that black light on hotel. Sheets is a good turn of raise. A sign that an essay, a letter, or any kind of written work was written by a machine and not a human. Yeah, the EM dash is now a GPT ism. It is not advisable unless you want people to think your writing is an output of an LLM. Yep. On Instagram, the beauty influencer Lux Gen warned that if people don't want to be accused of using AI, they should take out the ChatGPT hyphen. They just call it the Chat. Last week, OpenAI CEO posted on X the following brag, small but happy win. If you tell ChatGPT not to use EM dashes in your custom instructions, it finally does what it's supposed to do. It's interesting that they just didn't release an update that eliminates it. Like they seem to think it's a feature, not a bug. And they're asking people to kind of opt out of it by doing custom instructions, which I'm sure like 1% of the user base actually uses. Yeah, it's weird that they couldn't just have a custom instruction that goes over all of ChatGPT that just says like you don't need to not never use the M dash. Just let's turn it down by 90%. Yeah, all this M dash shaming has been upsetting because I, a professional writer, love, Love, love an em dash. A lot of em dashes in my writing. The ChatGPT. ChatGPT tells me I use 11 em dashes every thousand words. Wow. Other professional writers use them a lot too. 4.4 times more than the average person. These numbers, upon investigation, could be highly inaccurate since I got them from ChatGPT, which explains one reason why my son schools bans it. But the point is, EM dashes are loved by professionals. This is starting to make a lot more sense. What is ChatGPT trained on? A lot of professional writing. They literally have a deal with the Wall Street Journal. And so if it's used 4.4 times more than in everyday writing, it's just gonna come up a lot. Yeah. I mean, if you tried to. But you have to give it some direction on like, where this is good writing, sound like. Yeah. And if it just winds up being like, yeah, make it sound like a, like a Reddit comment, it's like, okay, well that could go all over the place. That could be very, very weirdly worded and it just would not be very consistent. Yeah. So the point is, EM dashes are loved by professionals. Why? Because more than any other punctuation mark, the EM dash is deeply human. It's the breath marks of Emily Dickinson, the stream of consciousness of Virginia Woolf, the head clogging maximalism of David Foster Wallace, or the self aggrandizing asides of Joel Stein. It's also the mark of discretion when Holden Caulfield tells his writer that he loves it. When his classmates digress during a presentation, he says, I don't like it when somebody sticks to the point all the time. The boys that got the best marks in oral expression were the ones that stuck to the point all the time. I admit it. And he admits it naturally with an EM dash. Large language models consume a lot of the best writing out there, which is why they use EM dashes. Unlike most people today who think a period is a rude way of screaming, AI believes in punctuation. If there's anything to take away from the EM dash scare, it's that we should use more of them. Because while most people can't find one on their keyboard and wouldn't know when to use it if they did, that's pretty funny. The EM dash requires more nuance than a thumbs up, a heart, or an eggplant. It's less jarring than parentheses, but a bigger interruption than commas. It's the length of an EM which sets it Apart from the boring shorter EN dash in the men's locker room for writers, we make fun of EM dashes. Interesting. Most of all, we should use EM dashes because they are a declaration of humanity in the face of AI's onslaught. If only ordinary people would learn how to use them. Do you see this link? Shorter en-for some reason it linked to en-dot in and that website just goes nowhere. En-I don't know why. On an Indian domain. I don't know. That's just like a mistake or something. They should correct that because en-.in doesn't go anywhere. Yeah, I have never really used em dashes. I also, I like this take. I mean, I agree with this. This makes sense. He should defend the. Defend the castle. Maybe the bigger tell to your earlier point is around that contrastive parallelism. That it's not this, it's that. That's what that's called. And that contrastive parallelism. I was wondering about that. And I went through a bunch of the old scripts that I'd written for YouTube and I couldn't find a single example of ever using that, that style, that structure. I've written a lot about a lot of different tech companies and I'd never said, you know, I've made a whole video about Nvidia in my Nvidia video. I never say Nvidia isn't just a GPU company. Google isn't just a search company. I've never, I never said holding company of the future. Yeah, yeah. I don't know. I don't know how that got baked in. I think that's maybe from marketing, from, like, marketing lingo, because I was trying to run the benchmark of. Does this contrastive parallelism creep in. More. When you ask the. Let's see, what is it? It's antithetical parallelism or contrastive construction or correlative conjunction pairs. This is the term. I learned this from them. But that antithetical parallelism, it's not this. It'S that we're not writing a story. I never use it. And it just. It has a sound that sounds like marketing. It sounds like it sounds like marketing. Like, I feel like you could probably go through the New Yorker or the Wall Street Journal and you'll see a lot of EM dashes, but you won't see a lot of antithetical parallelism. And so I feel like the antithetical parallelism is an even bigger tell. And Tyler, what do you think? I also think it's interesting. Like you would imagine That a lot of these like GPT isms would be. They would only be like with one model. Right. It's like just 4.0 does that. Totally, totally. But it's like not that at all. Yeah. It's also not just like OpenAI models. Yep. Like yesterday I tried the Gemini 3 Pro and I asked write an ad for a GT3RS. Yeah. And then. So I'll just read the start. Listen to this. There's a moment at 9,000 rpm where the world stops. The noise isn't just sound. M dash, it's frequency. The vibration isn't just an engine M dash it's a heartbeat. Like it's like the exact same. It's very similar. It's the very similar. It's very strange. I wonder like, why this is like. There's a case, you could say that models are just like training off each other, but it seems that seems like not something that they're doing. Yeah. I don't know. It's just kind of landed in this zone where that is what is seen as good or something. I don't know. It's just like sort of decided that antithetical parallelism is the greatest thing. So. Thank you to Joel Stein at the Wall Street Journal for writing this article. I will support you in your fight to keep the EM dash, but I want to hear your take on contrastive construction. Actions speak louder than words, John. Are you gonna just rip like 20 em dashes in your next essay? So the problem is that I have never. I'm the guy. I'm the one who doesn't know how to find it on my keyboard. I'm who he's talking about. Just hit dash, dash, space, find it. On your keyboard and wouldn't know when to use one if they did. I don't know when to use it. I don't know where to find. Wasn't taught to me in English class. I just never learned. I'll teach it. I'm teaching it to you right now. Go on your keyboard, hit dash, dash, space on imessage and it will create it for you. Okay. But when doing shift, option dash, shift, option dash. I don't know. I think you can't teach old dogs to. I don't think you can teach an old dog new tricks. I don't know. I don't know if it's possible to teach me to use an EM dash like reliably. I think I might just throw them in randomly. What if I start using like two EM dashes next to each other? Just throw people off. No one would expect that, right? It's completely unexpected. So you'd be like, oh, well, this looks like AI, but it's something weird. It would be a really bad model. Whatever model he used was terrible. GPT2 for this. Anyway, let's move on. Let's do some timeline and then I think we can come back to this article and solve and see if we have more time. But first, let me tell you about TurboPuffer, serverless vector and full text search built from first principles and objects used. By cursor notion, linear anthropic, 10x cheaper, extremely scalable. I like when we're talking over each other during the ad reads. That's really the flavor we want to bring through. I love it. Okay, so there's a major shakeup going on at TBD Labs. Augustus Odina is out and I'm giving him a follow for this. He's going. He's going independent free agency. Yesterday, I resigned from TBD Labs. Meta AI. I wasn't there for very long, but I think I got a few useful things done. Nice. Impressive group of people. And it's especially impressive that it got assembled as quickly as it did with such a high talent bar at a large company. Quote, unquote, founder mode is real and good. I will certainly miss my coworkers there. I think now is an unusually high leverage time to pursue ambitious new projects at the intersection of AI and other technologies. Please reach out to me if you're interested in that sort of thing, and I expect I will have something more detailed to share in not too long. Is that the sound of a thousand venture capitalists writing term sheets with blank numbers on them? I messaged him yesterday and he said fan of the show, would be honored to be on the show when he's ready to talk about it. Yeah. So looking forward to that. Bernie Sanders. Okay, what's happening with Bernie? Firing shots. He's taking shots of the AI oligarchs. He says, here are some of the most powerful AI oligarchs in the world enjoying a private dinner with a dictator who murders his own citizens with a bone saw. Whoa. Does anyone really believe they want to wipe out poverty or improve life for ordinary Americans? I don't. And he's sort of mogging Greg Brockman here because he leaves Greg Brockman's net worth. He doesn't even try and estimate it. He just says question mark, question mark, question mark. Guess. Bernie Sanders. Age 75. Guess again. 78. Guess again. 77. Guess again. 80. Guess again. 82. Guess again. I have no idea. 84. 84. Oh, he's up there. He's up there. Oh, wow. Okay, so grandpa is pissed. He's pissed. He's absolutely. But what does that do with him not being able to look up Greg Brockman, the CTO of Stripe? Do a back of the envelope. What's Stripe trading for in the private markets? Call some secondary brokers. Get. If you're Bernie, you just need to call a bunch of secondary brokers. Understand where Stripe is trading, then work backwards from what his, what his Stripe stake is. Then call Satya Nadella, ask him based. On he could have used. Are you marking OpenAI at 500 or do you think you should market more at like 400 or maybe 600? Are you bullish on that? All of that goes into the DC spreadsheet and then you would have a fair market valuation for Greg Brockman's net. Worth and you wouldn't need to use chat. Got pretty close. 83, 85. Good work. But you know, if he really wanted to stick it to these American AI oligarchs, he could have used like Kimmy to do the kind of analysis that you were talking about. He would have gotten a lot closer. Yeah, I think we need, I think we probably need to do more to define oligarch in the AI era. Right. Does a billion dollar. I thought people would use Plutarch. Plutarchy. Plutarcy. Plutarch is a person. But what's the plutocrat? There's one that just means technocracy. Technocracy. There's one that specifically means wealth. That's like wealth where the plutocrats. That's it. Right. Plutocracy is, I think plutocracy is plutocracy. But also, I mean, does Bernie not realize that? Greg Brockman, Government by the wealthy is plutocracy. Oligarchy is something else that's just ruled. By a few, I think. Ruled by a few. Interesting. A small people, a small group of people having control of a country, an organization or institutions. Well, you know what Bernie's got to do? He's got to start a lab, start a foundation, model company and compete in the free market. I like it. I like that. Active retirement. Yes. And then start trading on public.com investing for those who take it seriously. Multi ass investing. Trusted by millions. Yeah. I don't blame Bernie for being a little bit salty at this point because he's never on those charts of the best political traders in history. Right. He's been having to sit there and watch Nancy Pelosi Run it up. The most insane run. And he's just missed out. The FOMO must be crazy. Every day he's opening up and Nancy's up another mill, and he's just sitting there like, ah, I missed it, I missed it. The trade of the century. Sam 3d. Meta, we talked about this a little bit. What? Yeah, Atharva is hyped on Meta's new model, SAM3D. I forgot about this. So this was purposely released at the perfect time because we were just earlier accusing Meta of slopping it up at the slop trough with Meta Vibes. And there's a little bit of a narrative that was emerging which is like, okay, you know, Zuck did this whole talent war. He acquired a ton of talent, clearly invested crazy amounts, huge gigawatt five gigawatt plan. Hyperion, Prometheus. He's going all in and on AI and then the first thing that he came out with was like, Meta Vibes, this sort of like sloppy TikTok AI clone that didn't really break through and just kind of frustrated everyone in the timeline did not appreciate it, did not like it. And so at that point, I think everyone was calling for, okay, you got to deliver something that's actually solid. You got to deliver something that's useful, that's valuable. Maybe it's a contribution to open source. Maybe it's even just an API for coding that's really good, or a model that does something unique, special, or just. Free ASI for everyone. That would also be acceptable. Yes, that would definitely reset the narrative on is Meta slopping it up at the trough. But this is an example of them not slopping up at the trough. This feels elevated, this feels useful. I'm very excited for where this gets implemented all over the place. This feels like a very serious organization. Like the work of a serious organization, the work of a group that's taking their work seriously and not just trying to, you know, score points, go viral, just make a couple extra bucks. They're actually doing some real research. So I was excited about this. What was your take? Yeah, I mean, this is really cool. I think people have probably just over indexed too much on Vibes because, like, I don't even really think of Vibes as being like an Alexander Wang project. It's not like they trained a new model that's not their model. It's just totally project Manager create a new app. So I think there's still like a ton of really good researchers. I'm very excited to see what they actually put out because I assume that it's going to be great. It's hard to know without actually knowing the usage of meta AI. You can look into it a little bit by just looking at the app store charts and seeing the kind of tracking they have. But I think in hindsight they would have just been much better off not releasing that or not making it a moment. Dude, you're telling me you don't like meta vibes Dog, what are you doing? That is Trump in an orange and rainbow suit dancing. I thought we had ptz. I thought we could zoom in on this. Yeah, I mean there's some golden stuff. You know what I was actually thinking about was they kind of, it's kind of a do nothing win situation. Right. Because I feel like at least this year the vast majority of AI slop will be consumed on Instagram. Like no matter even if it gets made in the Sora app, like it's coming over to Instagram if it's going to do well and it's going to be distributed on the other platforms. And so I would be very closely watching the actual user minutes, the time on site. But I would imagine that the amount of Sora generated content, the user minutes is like 100 times on Instagram than on the actual Sora app. Just because it's such a bigger, bigger audience. And so even though it's made by Sora, it's distributed elsewhere. Anyway. Yeah, let's check in with the what's. Going on App store chart. Genius. Sora is still number nine in the charts. Capcut and Temu Shop like a billionaire are sitting just ahead alongside. Go wish your digital wish list. Well, let me tell you about numerl.com let numero worry about sales tax and VAT compliance. Compliance handled so you can focus on growth. Luxury watch guy is concerned on the about the bitcoin sell off because he says there are going to be so many effing APs on the market. Facepalm. Oh no. Flooding the aftermarket. So we'll see how that nets out. But the cryptocurrency industry certainly has been known to enjoy an AP. Yeah, Google's Genius. By not selling TPUs, Google allows Nvidia to maintain high GPU pricing, which in turn props up price of inference. Google then captures that inference price Premium by running TPUs for inference on GCP. This is a conspiracy theory by Dave 3 and 30 Tepper. I'm not sure how real that is. Yeah, there's also they are going to sell TPU just because you have two players in the market doesn't mean you can sort of have a you know what happens in the soda industry. Right? But effectively like GLP1 market there's just a lot of demand. You don't need to cut prices that. And you also understand that you can get in there can be reason not to get in a race to the bottom dynamic and effectively have a gentleman's agreement to keep prices in a certain range. Of course that can go too far. Well, let me tell you about Vanta Automate Compliance and Security. Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform. Do you mind doing some timeline while I quick break? Pier from Cal.com says shower thought why is no one doing outbound for pizza? Hey this is Gigi from Gigi's Pizza calling. You ordered last week. We have a pepperoni pizza ready and could deliver it in 10 minutes. Are you hungry? Tech Sales Guys has trillion dollar idea and of course it goes viral again. Some ideas and bangers are evergreen Morgan Housel yesterday was saying I think the majority of societal problems right now are all downstream of housing affordability. Austin asks how would you fix housing affordability? The current admin has suggested 50 year mortgages. We'll see how much of we'll see if those go through and how much of an impact that they have. But Morgan Housel says build more homes, plenty of demand, plenty of capital, mostly a local zoning issue and that certainly, certainly tracks living here in California. John Palmer, dear friend of the show and somebody that we are actually working on a little project with, says this might sound crazy but they should pivot. He's talking about Sunday Robotics which make the cute new robots with with fantastic little hats. He says this might sound crazy but Sunday should pivot to a consumer app where you just tele operate your own memo which is the name of the robot and meet up with your buddies and do fun stuff as robots. I agree. I would love to meet up with the lads in the real world in robot form. I think he might be onto something. There was a story coming out earlier this week. An investigation from the Lever found that a PE firm is buying hockey rinks and banning parents from recording and taking photos of their kids games. Based this story broke because they tried enforcing the rule on the wrong person. US Senator Chris Murphy so a little excerpt here. As the $40 billion youth sports industry comes under private equity control, Corporate owned facilities and leagues from hockey rinks to cheerleading arenas have begun prohibiting parents from recording their own kids sports games. Instead, parents are forced to subscribe to these companies exclusive Recordings streaming service, which can cost many times more than the streaming costs for professional sporting events. That's so funny because I was thinking about how, how like I, I'm such a gear nerd that oftentimes when I'm watching my four year old play soccer, I'm like, one of these days I'm gonna bring out these like PTZ cameras out here and like get the most cinematic footage. And they're gonna have to go up against me. I'm gonna be fighting them. Yeah, every kid's sports team should have a dad or a mom. That's the CTO and their job is just to rig the entire field with cameras and then provide crazy edits for each kid after. Even if they lose. It's like the one, the one moment that they had, you know, they finessed someone. You still think this is based. Tyler, you still saying hello base department? I mean. My mind's. You appreciate value creation. How else, how else do you expect private equity firms to make money? Yeah, how else do you expect them. To make hard working private equity firms? They need to make, build, you know, afford their interest payments. In some instances, parents have been threatened that if they chose to defy the rules and record the game, they may end up on a blacklist that punishes their kids. Well, what they need to do is they need to form some sort of like union. Basically where they all say we all are gonna film or none of us are gonna attend and we're gonna take our business elsewhere. Those threats were even reportedly made to a sitting U.S. senator. I was told this past weekend that if I livestream my child's hockey game, my kid's team will be penalized. And lo the standings said Chris Murphy at a public event. Why is that? Because a private equity company has bought up the rinks. So this. He was trying to live stream his himself. Like he was just trying to set up a camera and live. Like how does that like at some point. At some point. I think the obvious solution here is parents can take as many pictures as they want. If I'm a parent, I'm going to take some pictures, but I would probably still get the recording. I would probably still subscribe so that family members could watch. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It doesn't have to be all or. Not competing the free market. Let us both film. Whoever gets the better vibreal, whoever gets the craziest edit out of it is going to be able to sell it. And if I can out edit you and I bring better gear than your private equity backed videographer. I'm not paying. I'm not paying for it. Let me tell you about figma. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. You can get started. Triple glaze. Every time OpenAI says anything, it gets turned into a headline. These days, the latest one is that. The keywords start using sign language headwinds. But I guess even that would still potentially get turned into a. A headline. Yeah, I don't know. It's. Sam is very tricky. Something to pg. I feel like people use. I feel like if you went through. If you went through a variety of like earnings call transcripts from plenty of public companies. CEOs say the word headwinds all the time. They're like, oh, yes, like this particular thing, the tariffs, that's a headwind. Oh, this is a headwind. Interest rates might be a headwind. That might be a headwind. Competition might be a headwind. Like people throw this out all the time. Yeah. If you say as a business that we don't have headwinds, you're not going to be taken seriously. Yeah, yeah. But OpenAI has somehow wound up in a situation where they're so priced to perfection that even just admitting that there might be more competition is like a massive news cycle. Now, it's pretty remarkable, but the actual quote here is that Sam Altman warned of headwinds from resurgent Google. This, of course, is a story that we've all been tracking through JEP3, some. Temporary economic headwinds for our company. Economic headwinds is pretty wild. Didn't have to say, put that part in. I wonder how that's going to manifest. Are people going to be unsubscribing from ChatGPT, going over to Gemini as an app, or are they going to. Is this on the API side? The API side seems a little bit more like easy to slide around from one to the other. It feels like OpenAI certainly caught up very quickly with. With Codex. They were behind for a while, then they caught up. But now Google's sort of out in front. Although Anthropic is doing very well. It's all just like a variety of horse races. Some of the revenue should be stickier than others, but when the goal is 100 billion in revenue so fast with this series of competition, it is very difficult. He also said, ChatGPT is AI to most people and I expect that to continue. Continue. So brand that is 100% accurate. Powerful element, but not enough to eliminate all competitive threats. Okay. He added, I don't want this to be. No, to be a downer. We are doing remarkably well as a company and I expect that to continue. Yes, yes. Let me tell you about Julius AI, the AI data analyst that works for you. Join millions who use Julius to connect their data, ask questions, and get insights in seconds. What is this story of the FBI raising a bounty for a former Olympic snowboarder who turned alleged drug kingpin? We love these stories. We covered this guy on the show before. Okay. His name's Ryan Wedding. Ryan James Wedding. He's married to the game, is he? Ryan Wedding. Oh, Ryan Wedding. Okay. Yes, he's married to the drug dealing game, I suppose. He's a former Olympic snowboarder from Canada. He represented Canada at the 2002 Winter Olympics in men's parallel giant slalom. After the Olympics, it is alleged that he became a transnational drug trafficker and orchestrated the murders of various witnesses. Whoa. And he's only 44, so he's kind of just kind of hitting his stride. He was added earlier this year, March 6, to the FBI 10 Most Wanted. So he's in the top 10. They have any idea where he is? I wonder how he'd hunt this guy down. And they're saying he's running one of the largest drug trafficking operations and is believed to be the dominant cocaine distributor in Canada. So from the Canadian Olympic team to the Canadian narcotics trafficking MVP status, the hard thing is when they talk about because drug kingpins have just been the stars of so many different great television TV shows and movies. Pam Bondi said he's the modern day iteration of Pablo Escobar. Somebody was about to turn him in, but they hear that and they're like, oh, he's too cool to turn in. Can't do it. It's not worth it. I just gotta be friends with this guy. Living through history. Oh, wow. So after the 2002 Winter Olympics, he moved back to Vancouver and attended university. He got into bodybuilding and started working as a bouncer. After two years in university, he dropped out and began to speculate in real estate, which he financed by growing marijuana in a massive warehouse. He eventually expanded his operation and joined up with Iranian and Russian smugglers. And in 2010, he was convicted of attempting to buy drugs from a U.S. government agent. And he went to prison for it. There are so many startups these days that are going after Palantir's market, competing in enterprise software, enterprise AI for deployed engineers. It's all a bunch of memes. Everyone's keying off of the Palantir strategy. I think if you're trying to play in that market, you gotta take down a most wanted fugitive. You get the 15 million, that's your seed round and you use this as marketing the company that finds this guy. I'm gonna believe that your model's pretty good. Whatever you're doing, if you can find this guy, I'm gonna be like, yeah, yeah, that's a good. That's enough of an eval for me. You pass the benchmarks. I don't care. Your mmlu. Tell me, how many fugitives have you you checked off the FBI Top 10 Most Wanted list? That's what I want to see. Well, there's a documentary series in the making titled Snow King From Olympian to Narco. Okay. Yes. Based on a Rolling Stone investigation. Okay. Jack Altman says, I heard the term forward deployed VC meaning investor who's helping a company. And now I'm logging off for the rest of the year. What's funny is there used to actually be forward deployed VCs. What's that? Genentech story, right? Who is the VC in Genentech? It was. Who was it? I don't remember. Robert Swanson, a venture capitalist, met with biochemist Herbert Boyer in 1976. There was, I think it was either Sequoia or Kleiner Perkins, but one of. Bob Swanson I believe was at Kleiner Perkins. Okay, Is that right? There was one example of a VC who basically was in the office of the company every Friday and was basically just like their financial back office the entire time because the team was a bunch of scientists who understood the technology but did not really understand how to build the business. And the forward deployed VC did really go in. That's a lost art because we are in the era of founder friendly. Let the engineer figure out everything. Let them hire like kind of hands off from the venture capital community. So I'm actually okay with the term forward deployed vc if it's actually forward deploying like like you can't just be like helpful. You need to be like actually in. The office show who's like basically like probably doing like actually 20 hours a week for one of his portfolio companies and has been for years. I would give him the Ford deployed. Vc but he would never call himself. Yeah, it would be a very bad matters. How about for deployed Privy? Because Privy helps you build on crypto rails, securely spin up white label wallets, sign transactions and integrate on chain infrastructure all through one simple API. Peter Reinhardt is in the news. This article might be a little bit too long, so we might tell you to go read it. But Peter Reinhardt says, my lobbyists are very nervous about me posting this. But overregulation is working against us all. The costs are astronomical to us all. But hidden, there's one excerpt that I'll read. Yes, this is the CEO of Charm Industrial and he has been going viral with a new article about overregulation. And so he's giving an example. So as one example, one state agency asked Revoie to do certified engine testing to prove that the Revoie doesn't increase emissions of semi trucks. Trucks. And that Revoy must do this certification across every single truck engine family. It costs $100,000 per certification and there are more than 270 engine families for the nine engines that our initial partners use. That's 27 million for this one regulatory item. And keep in mind that this is to certify that a device whose sole reason for existence is to cut pollution by 90% and which is done so across nearly 100,000 miles of testing and operations is not increasing the emissions of the truck. It is a complete waste of money for everyone. So the Revoie system attaches to the truck and adds as an extra battery pack. It's a way to retrofit a gas powered truck to include an extra electric engine. There's something where I guess if your claim is that you're reducing emissions, I don't have that much of a problem of you trying to certify that you're not increasing emissions because that's the base level for your claim. Like your marketing claim. You're claiming that you're reducing emissions. If you're increasing emissions, then you're doing the opposite of your claim. So there is something about whatever claim you're making, you should be able to back it up. But the main thing is that $27. Million, any type of system that requires you to spend $27 million just to get in the game. Yeah. When you're, you would think that there'd. Be a better way to understand the actual impact of this. I mean, there's so many maybe more efficient ways to deal with this. Whether it's just like, okay, how widely deployed are these? If they're making $100 million a year, take the taxes, do some independent analysis, pay for it yourself, and then decide. Okay, also the question in this case is why does it cost $100,000 per certification? Is there like a monopoly in the certification market? Absolutely. It's the government. The government's the one that does the certification. But yeah, well, oh, oh, I thought it was an external I thought it. Was an external partner. But even then, it's hard to imagine that there's like $100,000 of sort of services that goes into this. You should be able to cut that cost pretty dramatically. Before we move on, let me tell you about adquick.com out of home advertising made Easy, measurable plan Buy and measure out of home with precision. Casey Hanmer has a big post here. Should we run through some of this or. Oh, you want to skip down to this one? Okay, here we go. Got another one off cockroach. The private credit cockroaches have been scuttling around this time. Private lenders are swapping debt for equity in distressed 4840. I am logging into Bloomberg's.
In the real world in robot form. I think he might be onto something. There was a story coming out earlier this week. An investigation from the lever found that a PE firm is buying hockey rinks and banning parents from recording and taking photos of their kids games based this story broke because they tried enforcing the rule on the wrong person. U.S. senator Chris Murphy. So a little excerpt here. As the $40 billion youth sports industry comes under private equity control, Corporate owned facilities and leagues from hockey rinks to cheerleading arenas have begun prohibiting parents from recording their own kids sports games. Instead, parents are forced to subscribe to these companies exclusive recordings and streaming service which can cost many times more than the streaming costs for professional sporting events. That's so funny because I don't think this is. I was thinking about how I'm such a gear nerd that oftentimes when I'm watching my four year old play soccer, I'm like, one of these days I'm gonna bring out these PTZ cameras out here and get the most cinematic footage. They're gonna have to go up against me. I'm gonna be fighting them. Yeah. Every kid's sports team should have a dad or a mom. That's the CTO and their job is just to rig the entire field with cameras and then provide crazy edits for each kid after even if they lose. It's like the one, the one moment that they had, you know, they finessed someone. You still think this is based. Tyler, you still saying hello base department? I mean my mind's. You appreciate value creation. How else, how else do you expect private equity firms to make money? Yeah, how else do you expect them. To make hardworking private equity firms. They need to make ends meet, build, you know, afford their interest payments. Yeah. In some instances parents have been threatened that if they chose to defy the rules and record the game, they may end up on a blacklist that punishes their kids. Well, what they need to do is they need to form some sort of like union basically where they all say we all are are going to film or none of us are going to attend and we're going to take our business elsewhere. Those threats were even reportedly made to a US sitting. A sitting US Senator. I was told this past weekend that if I livestream my child's hockey game, my kids team will be penalized and lose a place in the standings, said Chris Murphy at a public event. Why is that? Because a private equity company has bought up the rinks. So this. He was trying to live stream his himself. Like he was just trying to set up a camera and live. Like, how does that. Like, at some point. At some point. I think the obvious solution here is parents can take as many pictures as they want. If I'm a parent, I'm gonna take some pictures, but I would probably still get the recording. I would probably still subscribe so that family members could watch. Yeah, yeah, yeah. If you're competing the free market, let us both film. Whoever gets the better vibreal, whoever gets the craziest edit out of it, is going to be able to sell it. And if I can out edit you, and I bring better gear than your private equity backed videographer. I'm not paying. I'm not paying for it. Let me tell you about Figma. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. You can get started.
Reaching to feel the new. Tripping, please. Journalistic was headed towards you. Stand by. Market clearing order Inbound. You're watching TVPN. Today's Friday, November 21, 2025. We are live from the TVPN Ultra Dome, the temple of technology, the fortress. Of finance, the capital of capital. We got to ring the size gong for Eli Lilly. Big pharma getting bigger. Big pharma getting bigger. $1 trillion. That's the new market cap for Eli Lilly. They're a $1 trillion company. Normally you got to be selling ads, you got to be a tech company, or you got to be an oil company to get to the one trillion club. But people did say back in the day, whoever creates a cure for obesity is going to be a trillionaire. Yep. And they did the meme. They did the meme. They did the meme. Eli Lilly just became the first one trillion dollar pharma company in history. I want to see the CEO Dave Ricks. You know, he went on the Cheeky Pint podcast. I want to see him post. You know how to run a 13 figure business? Give me a thread. Give me a thread. Nobody's done that 13 figure business, man. I'm a 13 figure businessman and I'm on Instagram giving you some advice. Teach a course. Come on. Tell me how you do it on that playbook yet. But it is a fascinating business. It's one that I'm not super familiar with. And so I wanted to understand exactly how the weight loss market's playing out. Earlier in the year, maybe a year ago, we looked into GLP1s. We talked about them, we read about Novo. Of course there laughed a little. We laughed a little when Novo failed to renew one of their patents. Yeah, that was crazy. And I think it cost. I'm gonna look it up. But it was something like that. Yeah. So what's been fascinating to me is the lack of importance of intellectual property here. Normally when I think about developing drugs, all pharma, I think about it as like, you get a bunch of scientists in a lab, they, they discover something and then they patent it. And you have a complete monopoly on that for years. It's like you have the patent on the intellectual property. If I have Mickey Mouse. You can't use Mickey Mouse for decades until it enters the public good, the public square. But that's not exactly how this is playing out. So Novo was originally the one getting all the attention for kicking off the GLP1 boom. But over the past few years, Lilly has caught up. It's sort of a Google story. It's sort of like the Google narrative. Novo sort of raced to market. Basically everyone was working on diabetes drugs. Then they figured out that these could be used for weight loss. And everyone rebranded, ran a few more studies and then brought the drugs to market. So now the name of the game is making American GLP1s. Eli Lilly's building a massive new plant in North Carolina to support what's now a $72 billion market. The revenue numbers are really crazy. It feel like an AI story, but in this case, AI stands for appetite inhibitor. I guess that's right. Long term forecasts get really massive. Eli Lilly's currently expected to generate $63 billion across their entire portfolio. But by 2034, they're expected to sell over 100 billion just in weight loss. So this new business line is going to be bigger. Yeah, rest of the. Exactly. It's going to be, it's going to be basically twice as big as their existing as everything they are now. And they're already a big company. So I was surprised that there was not of an exclusivity period here. I wanted to dig into it. We were wondering, like, is it some sort of deal? Are they working together, Novo and Eli Lilly? In fact, they are. Historically, they did. No, really, they were accused of working together. Oh, and, and that would have been illegal and they would have been colluding. They are bitter rivals. Going back 80 years, they've never worked together. They, they do not work together. They in fact are fighting over this market completely. And so what actually wound up happening was that the first, you know, the first drug that kicked us all off was Novo Nordisk. They patented Semaglutide, which was marketed as Ozempic and then Wagovi. And to my point earlier, referencing the Canadian market, this happened around five months ago. Novo Nordisk actually lost Canadian patent protection on Ozempic and WeGovy in Canada because a few years ago they didn't pay the very nominal maintenance fee on their patent. That's crazy. Which will ultimately cost them billions. Well, don't do that. Instead, get on ramp. Time is money. Save both easy use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place. So back to GLP1s. No one can patent a biological mechanism. You can only patent a particular chemical, a particular structure. You can't just, you can't patent the idea of inhibiting, mimicking GLP1, which is what all these drugs do. They mimic the GLP1 hormone. And that's what's important. So Novo patented semaglutide. Lilly had Tirzepatide already in the works. Again, they were working on diabetes, not on weight loss, something else. But it was already kind of predicted to be a big market. So they both have products, and then as soon as Novo is able to pivot to weight loss, Lilly's able to run the same playbook very, very quickly. And accidental discoveries and quick rebrandings are nothing new in pharma. Viagra was Init created by Pfizer as a heart medication. They gave it to both men and women, I believe, but male subjects obviously had a particular side effect, and that unlocked an entirely new market. And then that discovery came out of left field completely. So they had a true. Pfizer basically had a true monopoly for five years before Cialis came to the market. This is obviously different because both companies were working on the underlying structure. Adderall also had a really odd path. Amphetamines have been around for over 100 years. They were used by Sol in World War II, so obviously you can't patent them. In the 1970s, they were sold as weight loss drugs. And so there was a drug. It was an appetite suppressant. Yes, yes. So it was called Obitrol and Obitrol was sold as a weight loss pill. In the 90s, a company bought Ovitrol, renamed Adderall Meth. Yeah, it's a great weight loss drug. Try it today. It's actually so crazy, I imagine, that it didn't really take off as a weight loss drug because it had crazy side effects. I don't actually know. I would imagine it was effective, but probably just very risky to use. Yeah. But in the 90s, a company purchased, overall, rebranded it Adderall and then marketed it for adhd. And they didn't have the patent on the chemical. Remember, you can't patent the chemical amphetamine because it's been around for so long. So what they were able to do is develop a brand. And Adderall is a product that the brand name, somehow it just completely broke through in a massive way. And it's just synonymous with adhd. Yes, yes. It's actually broken through in such a way that it's synonymous with adhd. It's synonymous with, like, study medication, even. Yeah. And so it's been wildly successful. They actually did wind up getting a patent later on for Adderall xr. So Adderall XR is a bunch of beads in a capsule and they were able to patent the delivery. Exactly. Form factor. Exactly. And so even when you don't have the patent on the underlying tech. You can still patent things around it, patent the biosimilars. There's a bunch of different things you can do. And so it is a shame that the Gila Monster never is not really getting any upside any of these weight loss drugs, because that really is the origin. Right. They really should do that. They should do like 1% for the Gila monster and just 1% off the top. They should donate it to Gila Monster. Maybe a foundation of sorts. Yeah, yeah, a foundation. A nonprofit. A nonprofit that just makes the Gila Monster live in absolute luxury. That's right. As a thank you. So Eli Lilly will be fighting this endless battle with every other world. And to be clear, for those that don't know, it was Nova Nordisk that figured out what was happening in the Gila Monster, which is the Gila Monster. I don't remember. Yeah, it is. It's the Gila Monster because there's two. Yeah, there's the Komodo dragon too. And I often get those two creatures researchers confused. But yeah, it's the saliva in the Gila Monster, I believe, that uses the same pathway, the GLP1 hormone. So basically over the next couple of years, we're going to see this interesting dynamic where Eli Lilly, Novo and basically every pharmaceutical company, they have to get it on the action because it's such a big market. Obesity is a massive disease. It really is that trillion dollar opportunity. It's been that for a long time. There's, you know, hundreds of millions of obese people. Everyone who has that, you know, doesn't want that. There's. The market is so, so broad. And so what's interesting is that the patents haven't resulted in a perfect monopoly where it's not this winner take all situation where Novo is just gonna run away with it, or Eli Lilly's just gonna run away with it. What's actually happening is that they. It's a duopoly right now, but demand is so high that they still have high margins. So they're in like a price war. But the price war. And that's even with the competitive dynamics of the compounders, companies like Hims, which are creating a ton of different GLP1 products, you know, just in their own facilities. And so the price has fallen 3x. And normally, you know, if the price of your good is falling 3x, you're charging 3. If you're selling a $50,000 car and then a couple years later you're selling it for 15, like that's not great. Still cost something like in the same range to produce. And so you're just getting massive margin compression but the growth is so insane that it hasn't really mattered. Yeah, exactly. So the market is growing so so much margins have fallen from 80% to like 60% but the mass adoption just completely offsets that. And so they're making way, way more dollars in total. And so the next race now you know Eli Lilly's trillion dollar company, what do they have to do next? And make it a pill. They're going to try and make these weight loss products in pill form and there's a whole new battle duking it out between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk again and some other players. But it's a fascinating time and there's a lot of. They have their own little barnacle economy. There's a lot of analogies to the AI race, trillion dollar companies and high margins and all this. But at the end of the day, what matters in the GLP1 market is just the actual supply. Like you have to go and build a massive facility and once you get the facility up, people will buy it because just the demand is so high that if you can make it, you will be able to sell it and you'll be able to sell it at a good, good margin. Anyway, let me tell you about Restream 1 livestream 30 plus destinations. If you want to multi stream go to restream.com There was some interesting news in the SEO world. Adobe is buying SEMrush for $1.9 billion. Should we do size gong for SEM? I think so. I think so, yeah. Fantastic, fantastic outcome. It was notable to me because obviously we've been tracking the generative Engine optimization space and there wasn't really a great comp for a lot of those. I remember we were talking about it and it's not like you hear a lot of SEO companies getting acquired in that range. And so anyways, the geo market is still highly, highly, highly competitive. Obviously we work with Profound, which has been the clear leader in the market to date. But I would expect this to drive even more companies to come in and compete. And ask any VC they're getting pitched companies in this category multiple times a week still. So people are just piling in and that's interesting. I wouldn't think of Semrush as a, as a geo. No, it's not. It was the SEO leader. Yeah. That being said, I would expect them to also want to play in geo. It's not like they're going to Completely ignore. I would almost be thinking about Semrush having their own build versus buy conversation. Yeah, it's sort of unclear what it would take them, how much data they have, how they can, how they can jump into the geo market. Obviously a lot of companies have been able to get something up and running very, very quickly. Yeah. And so, and they, they do already have a tool. It's called SEMrush AI visibility. But, but again there's so much demand for this, for this kind of new product because every single company is, you know, spending a lot of time thinking about how they're appearing in different LLM queries. So still up for grabs. Reportedly SEMrush did $250 million in revenue back in 2022. Probably grown a little bit since then. Founded in 2008. True overnight success. At overnight success, almost 20 years to get on to the next thing. Massive with Adobe. Speaking of Adobe, I need to push their tools to the limit at this point. They were so behind in terms of generative AI and their models. They were training their own models. But eventually I saw a demo where Nano Banana was in Photoshop and I feel like that is really, potentially a really, really big unlock just for workflow. We've seen so many different examples of this in AI where the models are incredible. But having the harness and having the wrapper, whether that's a product that was introduced five years ago, 10 years ago, 50 years ago, like they're all getting better. Adobe works with fall so they can integrate pretty much any model in the world and inference it. So I expect them to. It is funny that whatever it was two years ago, every single player felt like they needed their own models and now I think the narrative is really flipped. Well, speaking of fall, build and deploy AI video and image models with fall trusted by millions to power generated media at scale. And also Gemini 3 Pro, Google's most intelligent model yet. State of the art reasoning. Next level vibe coding, deep multimodal understanding. We've been having a ton of fun with Gemini 3 Pro and Nano Banana Pro. We have generated an image of the Aura farm the world trying to understand a barnyard. A barnyard sort of an AI market map, but through the lens of a barnyard because that's really what is going on in AI these days. Let's see. I think we need to zoom this out just a little bit to get it to line up, but we can show and we can take you on a tour of our farm based market map to explain what's happening in the state of AI in November of 2025. Tyler, do you want to take us through it? Sure, yeah. I mean, so we like to use a lot of animal idioms on this show. A lot of these you might recognize. But we've kind of expanded out to try to cover all the major players. And so. Yes. So this was made with nanobanana Pro. Very extremely good model. But you will notice as you get more and more complex, it gets a little bit sloppy. There's some slop in some places. Okay. But broadly, I think it did a very good job. Had a lot of fun making this. Yeah. Before nanobanana Pro was released, we would have needed to hire somebody that maybe illustrates children's books, and if they were an expert, maybe they could have whipped something together in a day. This took you far longer than that, prompting over and over and over, but I'm very pleased with the outcome. Yeah. Okay. So I guess let's just kind of go through each of the animals. Maybe let's just start with some of the more obvious ones, the ones we've talked about a lot on the show. So let's start over here with the piggies. So here we see the pigs at the slop trough. Who's there? And so this is probably. This is just label as meta. You can imagine a lot of people here. Right. You could. You could see Sora here. Sure. Bill Peebles. Bill Peebles could be, you know, eating some slop. Yes. Metal vibes. Yeah. I mean, just like broadly, AI in general. Some people think basically all AI is slop. They do, they do. There's been a lot of criticism. Yeah. But I think that one's fairly clear. You don't want to be at the. You don't want to be the pig of the slop trough. Although. So sometimes maybe the profitability of being a slop farmer is underrated. Obviously, America has a lot of pigs that live at the trough. They eat from the trough. Eventually, the pigs go to slaughter. They become bacon. They are sold into the economy. You can make a good living as a farmer who maintains a trophy. And then there's the Jeremy Giffon take, which is we hate slop now because we know that in a few years, it will no longer be slop. Don't count out the piggies yet. This is the sloppiest slop will ever be. That's true. That's true. Okay, who else is on this marketplace? So then let's move up. Let's see. We have the henhouse here. Yes. And who's in the Hen house is the fox. The fox. Right. And so this you can say is kind of oracle in Saint Mautland, right? Oracle is the hen house. Yes. They let the fox in. They're letting the fox in a little bit potentially. Yeah. We'll see what ends up happening. But again, now that I'm looking at this image, the fox isn't actually in the henhouse yet, but he's kind of circling it in the hen house. And there's a question of how far into the henhouse has the fox. And I think it's notable that the chickens don't seem too disturbed yet. Yes, yes. Yeah, yeah, they're getting along because the fox could just be browsing, could just be stopping by. It could be friendly, friendly fox. Friendly fox. But of course it is. If you have a. If you have a lot of cash flow as a big company, if you have the ability to borrow billions or hundreds of billions in the debt market, you have to protect your henhouse because foxes might come by and might want to. Might want to use you to co. Sign a loan. Yeah. Okay. So then we see the cash cow. The cash cow, the only profits in. AI for a long time. I don't know if anyone has really unseated them. They're certainly the most profitable by far. I think for a long time they were making more than 100% of the profits across everything. Everyone else was losing money. Yeah. Now you're starting to see maybe some cracks with TPUs. Okay. But even then, I mean, they're still. It's still a cash cow. We just saw. They just. Yeah, they just beat earnings. I mean, we have, we have an article here from the journal Nvidia. Results fail to quell AI worries. Not enough people are milking the cat. I gave you the perfect. Or maybe, maybe the cash. I gave you the perfect quarter. I know you still sold off 60 billion or something in revenue. Yeah, maybe. Maybe the cash cow has been over overly milked and is out of milk at this point. But I think it's still producing. I think it does seem like it's still producing. That looks like a healthy cow to me. Yeah, that looks like a. The crown on the cow in particular definitely helps out there. All right, moving over, what do we have going on here? So here we have the bull in the china shop, the bowl, and that's Elon. I think there's a couple ways you can. Could read into this. So Elon, one is just kind of on the. Maybe the data center infrastructure side where he's kind of the Bull. He's. Imagine that you're a contractor and you're building data centers for these companies and then you see Elon come in and he does it in eight months. What took you in a year and a half? Yep. He's kind of messing up your world, right? Totally, totally. He's like, oh, man, this bull, he's messing up my business. I need to be working way harder, way faster. Because he's also shipping features so fast. Before people could even have a discussion over adult content. It was like, boom, Annie, here it is, Valentine. So this is the way. So fast. This is the other way you could say he's the bull because there's kind of this maybe unspoken rule between the model companies where it's like, okay, we don't want to go too hard into the companion space. There were companies doing that, but they weren't. It wasn't the Openais, it wasn't the anthropics, wasn't the Geminis. Yeah. And then now you. Now you see a frontier model actually moving into their messaging. Grok is of course the maximally truth seeking LLM. Just yesterday I was asking Grok who is the strongest CEO in tech and it told me that Elon Musk is the strongest by far. And it actually compared him to a bull. It said he was stronger than a bull and that he could beat a bull in a fight if he went head to head. I believe it. With his bare hands. Absolutely right. Yes, Absolutely right. What else is going on here? I bet Claude would agree. If you really press Claude on it, they'd say, yeah, you're absolutely right. You're absolutely right. Who else is going? So let's move down here. We have the lipstick on a pig and I think you could say is Apple intelligence. Yes. Right. I mean, although I feel like this is actually almost flipped a little bit. Right. Because the pig is usually like the ugly thing and then you add the makeup to make it look nicer. Yeah, Well, I think that's what they did here. Right. They took a bad model and they dressed it up and they said it was great and they said you should buy a new iPhone because of it. And the model was bad. That's. And there's no amount of marketing that is like change public perception once the product hit the market. You could also run the pig. Is the privacy focused iPhone ecosystem that is pretty difficult to just run in and throw AI on top of. Like Apple has been building a brand around. We don't access your data, we don't store your data. We would never train on your data. And. And that put them in an awkward position where they couldn't just snap their fingers and deliver a great AI experience. Whereas Google has been, hey, you know, we'll give you Gmail for free. But we'll also, you know, probably train on wherever you go on the web and try and understand and route ads to you appropriately. Meadow is in a similar position. And so those two companies were a little bit more equipped to just, on day one, go and go and deliver AI features. Apple had to put lipstick on their pig, which is their privacy. It was more of like an afterthought. It was more a kind of shallow integration and then hopefully, we'll see with marketing. The marketing for Apple Intelligence felt like they were. It felt like a lot of makeup on top of something. It was not a lot of. It was not a foundational rewrite of iOS in any way. Not a lot of substance. Yeah. It didn't feel like an entirely new thing. It just felt like little lipstick all over the place. Yeah. And then before we go over there, let's. Let's go up here. We have the rooster. Yeah, That's Jordy's cock a noodle. New. This is Jordy calling the top every morning. Every morning. Every morning he wakes up, he comes on the show, 11am sharp, he calls the top. He says, this is. It's actually over now. It's so over. It's never been. Call the top every day. Eventually you'll be. Eventually you'll be correct. It's true. Eventually you'll be correct. Okay, what else do we have? So then we have the dark horse. The dark horse. And this is ssi. Okay. Of course, we're still yet to see anything really from ssi Elliot just charging. Around in the background. Yes. Yeah. Kind of this elusive figure still hanging out there. It's kind of. I mean, like. So the big kind of departures from OpenAI was Miriam Roti and Ilya, you could say. Yes. And Mirati's company, Think Machines. I mean, they're. She's raising up rounds. They have blog posts. Yeah, they do actually have a product. They do have a product. Let's hear it for. Why did you tell me earlier? Why'd you bury the lead? They have blog posts. They're good blog posts. I like them. So in a couple of years, we could be seeing vibe reels, is that what you're saying? We could be seeing launch videos. So they do have a product. Right. It's like RL fine tuning. Watch your head. There's A hoof. The horse is really, really about to hit you. Okay. But I mean, they're not really dark horse. Like, you can. They're a bright horse. I don't know if that's a phrase, but, like, you can see what they're doing. A slide or a beautiful. They're a unicorn. 50 times over. 50 times over. Yeah. We didn't put a unicorn on here. That's an animal. Maybe for the next video. After a certain point, I couldn't add anymore. It would just. It would get too sloppy. Okay, what else do we have? What else is going on in the Aura farm? So here. Here we see another horse. Yes. And there's two ways you could look into this horse. One is. Is this phrase, look a gift horse in the mouth. Yes. Right. Do you want to explain this, John? Yes. So do you know this phrase? You don't know this phrase, looking at gift horse in the mouth. Okay. So looking a gift horse in the mouth is. If someone gives you. This is like a term that was. Thrown around in the 80s. Yeah, yeah. This is back in my day. Back in my day. So obviously, just giving someone a horse. A horse is a valuable asset today, but also hundreds of years ago, it's always been a valuable tool on the farm. And the way that you assess the quality of a horse, one way to assess whether it's been taken care of, whether it's healthy, is to look in its mouth. Always look a gift horse in the mouth. No, never look to gift. Never look a gift horse in the mouth. Oh. Cause it would be offensive. It's offensive. If I show up after you get the gift later, after they leave. Imagine if I got you a GT3RS and you're like, popping the hood and. You'Re like, okay, you track this. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You're feeling the tire. Oh, I don't know about this. It's not that good. Oh, it only has. It only has 2,000 miles on it. But they're around the Nurburgring. Exactly, exactly. That would be looking at GT3RS in the tread. You don't look in the tread because, you know. Yes. If I gave you a horse, just be happy that I gave you a horse. You know, don't look. Don't look in the mouth. Don't assess it. And so what's happening with that? So, yeah, it's like you're not expressing gratitude. And so I think that these are. Just the public market investors. Right. We've been given that gift of why. Are they selling their stocks right now? Why are they selling, giving. They need to be buying this beautiful. Gift and they just don't want it. Yeah, they're selling their videos down. Yeah, they beat earnings, guys. They need to be buying the dip. They need to be buying more. They need to be levering up. They need to be going further into the public markets. Every dollar. They have not financial advice at all. But instead they are looking at gift horse in the mouth saying, oh, can. Can the. Can OpenAI afford the. All the different $1.4 trillion. The guy for the job is, is. The Google, you know, is Google set up to. To, you know, actually take advantage of AI? They're, they're digging in a little bit too much. Yeah. They should just be happy that they've been given AI. Exactly. The next megatrend. Exactly. So also the horse could be a workhorse. A workhorse. Right. And so I think you could say this is Amazon. Yeah, it's kind of cooking around. Hard to define Amazon AI strategy. Part of it is they're building data centers. Philanthropic, but they're definitely not getting overly ambitious. They're not like, you know, getting over their skis, but they're just doing the hard work. They're building the data centers. They're serving. Yeah, serving models. Maybe not fast enough. They might not be building the data centers fast enough. They might not be super aggressive. They're not, they're not, they're not show jumping. They're just, they're just dragging the plow. But they are consistently dragging the plow. All reliable Amazons cooking along. They're staying out of the slop trough. They're not doing a deal. Amazon has not done a deal yet with OpenAI for the agentic commerce thing. Maybe that changes. But for now they're just plodding along. Who else we got here? Let's go to the Black Sheep. The Black Sheep. So Black Sheep. There's also a lot of people that could fit in this. Yes, of course. But I think maybe Carpathy is one of them. Yeah, right. Andre Karpathy. Some of these contrarian. Contrarian. Takes about maybe just a decade of agents. To be clear, we're not calling him a sheep. He's not. It should be more of a black wolf. Black wolf. But the idea is that he's standing out. A lot of people in his class of ultra respected technologists, some of the most experienced. He's really been at Tesla. He's seen the AI wave. He's been working in it for decades. He's really worked on this. He's printed. Yeah. He's done so much. He's not sitting with the rest of them saying he broke, but he broke rank. Even though he's worked at OpenAI, even though he's worked at Tesla, he broke rank. He went on the Dwarkesh Patel show and said, you know what? I think we're more in a decade of agents. I think AGI might not be right around the corner. He took a contrarian stance at a very controversial time. But it was not. Yeah. And he popped the bubble with it. He basically popped the bubble with it. We'll see the bubble. Of course, the elephant in the room. The elephant in the room is, was in my view really more of the 1.4 trillion. Right. That was the big question. That was what everybody wanted to talk about or at least understand better. Frad asked the question and it's been downhill ever since. Yes. And it is. Yeah. The elephant in the room is in every conversation, every financing round at this point. Exactly. Is this, is this deal predicated on a continuation of exponential growth in investment in everything? Like how much more, how risky is this relative to the amount of froth in the market? Yeah. Never ask a woman her age, a man, his salary or a lab founder how they're going to spend 1.4 trillion. Yeah. Or how they're going to pay for it. Yeah. What else we got on here? So then in the top right, we have the bird's eye view. Yes. So situational awareness. Yeah, this is situational awareness. This is Leopold. It's the perfect name. Right. He has the situational awareness. He's seeing everything. He's kind of the master of the board. Yes. He's taking his bets and he's been doing pretty well off them. Yes, yes, yes. Yeah, that one's pretty self explanatory. Yeah. Okay, so then we go down, we have lion's share. The lion's share. This is Satya. Satya taken great position. I'll take. I don't know why he's on the third. I'll take, I'll take a third of the company and you can give me 250 billion and I'll take 20% off. The top and I'll take all the IP as well. Everything. I'll also take your chip and I'll make it my chip. Your chip is my chip. The entire contract is not your chip as me chip. The entire OpenAI Microsoft deal is basically could just be summarized in one line. I get the lion's share. I get the lion's share. And that's what he did. It's fantastic. Incredible. Incredible dealmaker. So let's go down here and we. See and we can zoom out a little bit. Yep. What do we have? Monkey business. These are the podcasters. That's us. We're having fun. We got props, we got all sorts of stuff. Sound effects. We need some monkey sound effects on there. We have a bunch of animal themed sound effects we need to have more fun with anyway. And then maybe let's go into the pond. We have the sitting duck. Yes, the sitting duck is incredibly cute. So Reddit. Why was Reddit a sitting duck? Yeah, so I think they brought it. It's because whether or not you have a permit, you're getting like the hunters are going to get you. I think Alexis Ohanian sort of laid this out, saying that when Reddit did the deal to give the data to OpenAI, they didn't realize how valuable that data was going to be. And that relationship has grown, grown, grown. And so they were kind of the sitting duck just sitting there. They didn't really kind of got caught off guard. Maybe could have trained their own model on their data internally. Maybe could have, you know, maybe had something that was more, more of a valuable resource where they, they would have had more leverage if they'd waited a little bit. But it is crazy that core weave and Reddit are sitting at roughly the same market cap now. Very interesting. Yeah. Which one is more valuable over the next couple years? I don't know. Yeah, I mean, I feel like Reddit has mostly been, you know, they've kind of already gone out to the slaughter in a sense. Like every model company has trained. You think so? But look at the market cap. It just keeps going up like Reddit's been. I mean, Reddit was sold for $5 million or something when it launched. Like, it's been, it was 10, it was 10. It was 10 to Conde Nast. 10 to Conde Nast. That's a crazy, crazy low valuation. And then eventually spun out. And then for a long time it was in the hundreds of millions and no one was thinking this is a tens of billions. For a long time, like people, the narrative was not, oh, yeah, this will be orders of magnitude more than snap. Yeah. No, no way. And then, and then it just sort of finally came together. So then who's the headless chicken? Yeah, let's go down a little bit. And we have the headless chicken. This is perplexity. Perplexity. So I think perplexity. You know, they have a lot of different strategies. Some of them kind of seem opposed to each other. Right. Maybe they're doing a browser. Maybe they're doing a Bloomberg Terminal. Maybe they're rebuilding Yahoo Finance. Maybe they're building the browser. The browser. To their credit, I do see more positive reviews of their browser than any of the other AI browsers. From independent folks or from. Yeah, independent, independent people. We've had a lot of investors come on the show and say, like, I love the browser, but it's hard to take that seriously. Every investor that's invested in a browser says their browser is the best browser. I don't listen to what they say, but I've just repeatedly seen people saying, like, the Perplexity browser is great. So whether or not that means a win. But the headless chicken thing, going over and giving $400 million to Snapchat kind of. I don't know, I think a lot of people good for Snapchat, maybe there's. Just a lot of stuff going on. It's the Snapchat deal, the trying to buy TikTok, trying to buy Chrome, launching a venture fund, Bloomberg Terminal. It's like, like, are you competing with all of these? Really? You're going to be TikTok and Chrome and Bloomberg and the next thing and see the next great company? It is just a lot. It's a lot to process. Yeah. Like, headless chicken is kind of like a fun thing to watch. And then people, you know, love to talk about perplexity. They love to say, like, oh, we're all short perplexity. That is true. Yeah. It's become consensus. Yeah. But let them cook. We'll see what happens. Yeah. So then if we go down a little bit, we have the snake and the grass. Have you guys ever witnessed headless chicken? No, I haven't. Growing up in the country, I have. You grew up in the country? I thought you grew up with the East Bay rationalists. I was born in Berkeley, but I grew up in wine country. Oh, okay. And I have fortunately, unfortunately, watched my father take one of the chickens. You know, every now and again, a chicken needs to be. To move on to the next chapter. And as a child. You sound like you're firing the chicken. Very amicable split. But, I mean, we're wishing the chicken the price. I mean, yes, it happens. It's the next chapter. I will say that it is a real thing. They run for, you know, at least 20 seconds or so, and I'll never forget it. Well, before we move on, let me tell you about cognition. The makers of Devin, the AI software engineer, Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. Okay, let's continue. Okay, so next we have the snake in the grass. Snake in the grass. This is the Chinese open source models, right? These are kind of lurking. I still don't really see that much coverage of Chinese open source models out there. Nobody wants to talk about it. Well, no one has bags so they can't pump them. Yeah, it's almost an. It's a elephant in the room to some degree. So this is where I sort of disagree with you because snake in the grass feels like it's going to attack elephant in the room means we got to address it. It's totally possible that the entire open source LLM ecosystem is just like yeah, there's like a $10 billion business there. It's sort of like you know, a stalking horse. Another, another animal based analogy. But it's sort of a stocking horse for like hey Gemini and, and anthropic. Like if you guys don't lower your prices we will go to the open source option. And that's sort of what. But Linux, how Linux works. It's like that, that you can kind of bid the closed source models against the open source models but for all like the doomer takes around like oh Chinese open source, like one day they're just gonna snap their fingers and all the Manchurian candidates are gonna activate in America. I think everyone's gonna be like I. Didn'T realize I was using Quad and now I believe that nothing happened on Tian Square. It's like I don't believe that's more. Of a threat to the. It's it a very real threat to the business models of some of the closed source models. Maybe I don't know. Again it's putting. It's certainly a pressure. It's Kim.