LIVE CLIPS
EpisodeĀ 8-27-2025
Some. If you're doing satellite R D, got to get a Redmond off an office. If you're doing launch stuff. You want to head out to South Texas because they do seem pretty friendly out there. At the end of the SpaceX stream, the announcer kind of like thanked all the different parties, like thank you to the county where Starbase is because Starbase is like this chartered city within the county. And thank you to the people of Texas and the people of this and that. Well, they got a stock exchange now. They do yesterday got nicee Texas, Nice E Texas. Something. Something down. Something happening in the. In the Lone Star state. Yeah, I haven't been to Texas in years. Last time I actually went was for David Center's thing. Really? Yeah. Other than that I don't find a lot of random time to go there. It's been a lot of New York, a lot of sf, Little Miami, but. I have been a bunch. When was the last time you went? Last year, I think I went three or four times for different portfolio companies. Yeah. Great place, great place. Do we have the video of the SpaceX explosions over time? They have this montage reel. I'd love to play that if you can find that. As I tell you about graphite.dev Code review for the Age of AI Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. All right, I'm throwing it in the timeline. This is go to graphite started that I could find. We will be talking about venture debt and what's going on in that market, but in the meantime I believe we have a video of SpaceX's launches.
Are a blueprint for low tier games. These techniques climb the stack for tentpole events. More AI in the truck, more GPUs at the edge in cloud trans code farms. Hyperscale. Capex is the real lever here. Aws, Google, Microsoft, Meta, they fund the compute behind all of this. Imagine 2026 CAPEX guides that going through the roof over we're going to be in hundreds of billions of dollars just supporting the Swifty demand for NFL content powered by immersive. Exactly. And so all this is going to translate into earnings of course. Showcases durable broad based inference demand in media and ads. Exactly the vector analysts want to see as the AI cycle tilts from training only to training plus always on inference. So that's what the Taylor Swift engagement means for Nvidia's earnings today. Groundbreaking. Gabriel says this is the music that Keith or Boy listened to in 2019 while doing a thousand burpees. And right before logging on to reply wrong to a political scientist posting about Pete Buttigieg's South Carolina polling results. Can we play this video? This video is hilarious. In the meantime, while they're pulling it up, I'll tell you about numeral sales tax on autopilot. Spend less than 5 minutes 5 minutes per month on sales tax compliance numeralhq.com and you know who's going to need to use numeral? Travis Kelsey's new American Eagle line. If you buy some American Eagle, they said Inside Travis Kelce's new American Eagle line an ad with athletes including Suni Lee and Keon Anthony the day after it was revealed that Travis kelce put an 8 carat engagement ring on Taylor Swift's finger. American Eagle had announced it had a limited edition clothing line with its sportswear brand True Colors AE X True Colors by Travis Kelce will launch in two drops today and on September 24th. So get ready and make sure you that you're paying your sales tax on True hp. Michael Miraflor says nothing is sacred. Monetize everything. Let's pull up the DJ that the. Video is going to be bad. Almost impossible to find. Okay, it's deep in the oh, they got it. They did it. Let's pull it up. Let's play this. Get the audio. Get the audio. The audio's key. Let's go full screen on this. This is like so annoyingly. I don't know. I was not a fan of this. Did you listen to this? You think it's good? Very Reddit coded. Yeah, but this I can't believe there's so many people in this, putting up with this Mario song. What. What event is this? It doesn't, it doesn't inspire me. You know what we need? Like Reddit drop. We need. We need this. You see the, the. It's like they blow this fog around. Look at this. Yeah, those like CO2 canyon cannons for sure. Like that to blow. Okay. We got something good out of this. Ben, we need the CO2 cannons. Whatever. Yeah, whatever those DJ equipment are. Yeah. During the lightning round when we're interviewing. And Nick, can you look into the health impact of being in a studio space with. With CO2 cannons? Regardless, this is very David Solomon coded. Yes. You have to be a Mario fan to understand. Yeah, I get it. I don't know if this would be for me in a big crowd, but who knows? Maybe. Maybe it's fun. It seems like they had fun and I'm happy for them these days. Not big into paying to be in a crowd. Yeah. Or pay to avoid one. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's rough. Anyway, let's go to Willmanitis. He says, hard to think of a piece of writing that's had a greater impact on my life than John Ludig's index mindset in 2021. This Pro Index tendency, writes John Ludig, pervades the private tech markets, startups, and even our culture through what I call the index mindset. A focus on preservation over creation, optionality over decisiveness, general over specific. Public companies are an obvious thing to index, but the index mindset manifests in many domains. In wealth, you instead of risk seeking expansion, you focus on steady compounding preservation. In venture capital, instead of concentrated bets, you focus on deployment pace and irr. In public markets, instead of active funds like hedge funds, which we'll talk about later in the show, you focus on passive funds and diversification. In employment, instead of four plus four to five year 10 years and being focused, you focus on one to two year 10 years portfolio building, lots of logos on your resume. In research and development, instead of being radical and innovative, you focus on being incremental and defensive. And in your personal life, instead of spiky and committed, you focus on being well rounded and committal. Internet software companies are far less.
Pre and post processing in cloud workflows. Sports production is going to modernize. Autonomous cameras analytics are a blueprint for low tier games. These techniques climb the stack for tentpole events. More AI in the truck. More GPUs at the edge in cloud trans code farms. Hyperscale Capex is the real lever here. Aws, Google, Microsoft, Meta, they fund the compute behind all of this. Imagine 2026 CAPEX guides that going through the roof over we're going to be in hundreds of billions of dollars just supporting the Swifty demand for NFL content powered by immersive. Exactly. And so all this is going to translate into earnings of course. Showcases durable broad based inference demand in media and ads. Exactly. The vector analysts want to see as the AI cycle tilts from training only to training plus always on inference. So that's what the Taylor Swift engagement means for Nvidia's earnings today. Groundbreaking. Gabriel says this is the music that Keith Roy listened to in 2019 while doing a thousand burpees. And right before logging on to reply wrong to a political scientist posting about Pete Buttigieg's South Carolina polling results. Can we play this video? This video is hilarious. In the meantime, while they're pulling it up, I'll tell you about numeral sales tax on autopilot. Spend less than 5 minutes 5 minutes per month on sales tax compliance numeralhq.com and you know who's going to need to use numeral? Travis Kelsey's new American Eagle line. If you buy some American Eagle, they said. Inside Travis Kelce's new American Eagle line, an ad with athletes including Suni Lee and Keon Anthony. The day after it was revealed that Travis kelce put an 8 carat engagement ring on Taylor Swift's finger, American Eagle had announced it had a limited edition clothing line with its sportswear brand True Colors AE X True Colors by Travis Kelsey will launch in two drops today and on September 24th. So get ready and make sure that you're paying your sales tax on True Colors. TK Michael Miraflor says nothing is sacred. Monetize everything. Let's pull up the the DJ that the video. The video is going to be bad. Almost impossible to find. Okay, it's deep in the. Oh, they got it. They did it. Let's pull it up. Let's play this. Get the audio. Get the the audio. The audio is key. Let's go full screen on this. This is like so annoyingly. I don't know. I was not a fan of this. Did you listen to this? You think it's good. Very Reddit coded. Yeah, but this, I can't believe there's so many people in this putting up with this Mario song. What. What event? It doesn't. It does inspire me. You know what we need like drop. We need. We need this. You see the, the. It's like they blow this fog around. Look at this. Yeah, those like CO2 can cannons for sure. Like that. To blow this. We got something good out of this. Ben, we need the CO2 cannons. CO2 whatever those. Yeah, whatever those DJ equipment are. Yeah. During the lightning round when we're interviewing. And Nick, can you look into the health impact of being studio space with CO2 cannons? Regardless, this is very David Solomon coded. Yes. You have to be a Mario fan to understand. Yeah, I get it. I don't know if this would be for me in a big crowd, but who knows? Maybe. Maybe it's fun. It seems like they had fun and. I'm happy for them these days. Not big into paying to be in a crowd. Yeah, that's pay to avoid one. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's rough. Anyway, let's go to Willmanitis. He says, hard to think of a piece of writing that's had a greater impact on my life than John Ludig's index mindset in 2021. This Pro Index tendency, writes John Ludig, pervades the private tech market, startups, and even our culture through what I call the index mindset. A focus on preservation over creation, optionality over decisiveness, general over specific. Public companies are an obvious thing to index, but the index mindset manifests in many domains. In wealth, you instead of risk seeking expansion, you focus on steady compounding preservation. In venture capital, instead of concentrated bets, you focus on deployment pace and irr. In public markets, instead of active funds like hedge funds, which we'll talk about later in the show, you focus on passive funds and diversification. In employment. Instead of four plus four to five year tenures and being focused, you focus on one to two year ten years portfolio building, lots of logos on your resume. In research and development, instead of being radical and innovative, you focus on being incremental and definitive.
Workloads and an Nvidia sweet spot. They have Merlin for recommendations of ads and Triton for serving ads. Stream quality is going to be an arms race. The women, the Swifties. They're going to demand 4K feeds. Platforms are going to race to improve video. They're going to need to accelerate this with Cuda. This means more GPU accelerated pre and post processing in cloud workflows. Sports production is going to modernize autonomous cameras. Analytics are a blueprint for low tier games. These techniques climb the stack for tentpole events. More AI in the truck, more GPUs at the edge in cloud Transcode farms. Hyperscaler. Capex is the real lever here. Aws, Google, Microsoft, Meta, they fund the compute behind all of this. Imagine 2026 CAPEX guides that are going through the roof over we're going to be in hundreds of billions of dollars just supporting the Swifty demand for NFL content powered by immersive. Exactly. And so all this is going to translate into earnings of course. Showcases durable broad based inference demand in media and ads. Exactly. The vector analysts want to see as the AI cycle tilts from training only to training plus always on inference. So that's what the Taylor Swift engagement means for Nvidia's earnings today. Groundbreaking. Gabriel says this is the music that Keith Roy listened to in 2019 while doing a thousand burpees and right before logging on to reply wrong to a political scientist posting about Pete Vooda judge's South Carolina polling results. Can we play this video? This video is hilarious. In the meantime, while they're pulling it up, I'll tell you about numeral sales tax on autopilot spend less than 5 minutes 5 minutes per month on sales tax compliance numeralhq.com and you know who's going to need to use numeral? Travis Kelce's new American Eagle line. If you buy some American Eagle, they said. Inside Travis Kelce's new American Eagle line an ad with athletes including Suni Lee and Keon Anthony the day after it was revealed that Travis kelce put an 8 carat engagement ring on Taylor Swift's finger, American Eagle had announced it had a limited edition clothing line with its sportswear brand True Colors AE X True Colors by Travis Kelsey will launch in two drops today and on September 24th. So get ready and make sure that you're paying your sales tax on True Colors. TK Michael Mayor Flor says nothing is sacred. Monetize everything. Let's pull up the the DJ that. The video the video is going to be bad Almost impossible to find. Okay. It's deep in the. Oh, they got it. They did it. Let's pull it up. Let's play this. Get the audio. Get the audio. The audio is key. Go full screen on this. This is, like, so. Annoyingly, I don't know. I was not a fan of this. Did you listen to this? You think it's good? Very Reddit coded. Yeah. But this. I can't believe there's so many people in this putting up with this Mario song. What. What event is this? It doesn't. It doesn't insp. You know what we need, like, Reddit drop. We need. We need this. You see the. It's like they blow this fog around. Look at this. Yeah, those like CO2 canyon cannons for sure. Like that. To blow this. We got something good out of this. Ben, we need the CO2 cannons. Yeah, whatever those DJ equipment are. Yeah. During the lightning round when we're interviewing. And Nick, can you look into the health impact of being in a studio space with. With CO2 cannons? Regardless, this is very David Solomon coded. Yes. You have to be a Mario fan to understand. Yeah, I get it. I don't know if this would be for me in a big crowd, but who knows? Maybe. Maybe it's fun. It seems like they had fun and. I'm happy for them these days. Not big into paying to be in a crowd. Yeah. Or pay to avoid one. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's rough. Anyway, let's go to Willmanitis. He says, hard to think of a piece of writing that's had a greater impact on my life than John Ludig's index mindset in 2021. This Pro Index tendency, writes John Ludig, pervades the private tech markets, startups, and even our culture through what I call the index mindset. A focus on preservation over creation, optionality over decisiveness, general over specific. Public companies are an obvious thing to index. But the index mindset manifests in many domains. In wealth, you instead of risk seeking expansion, you focus on steady compounding preservation. Venture capital instead of concentrated bets, you focus on deployment pace and irr.
Follows attention incremental audience Especially for the new female demos. This is going to pull premium dollars to sports ads budgets. This pushes ad tech, recommender systems ranking, creative optimization, frequency control. These are among the most compute hungry inference workloads and an Nvidia sweet spot. They have Merlin for recommendations of ads and Triton for serving ads. Stream quality is going to be an arms race. The women, the Swifties. They're going to demand 4K feeds. Platforms are going to race to improve video. They're going to need to accelerate this with Cuda. This means more GPU accelerated pre and post processing in cloud workflows. Sports production is going to modernize autonomous cameras analytics are a blueprint for low tier games. These techniques climb the stack for tentpole events. More AI in the truck, more GPUs at the edge in cloud Transcode farms, Hyperscaler Capex is the real lever here. Aws, Google, Microsoft, Meta, they fund the compute behind all of this. Imagine 2026 CAPEX guides that are going through the roof over we're going to be in hundreds of billions of dollars just supporting the Swifty demand for NFL content powered by Exactly. And so all this is going to translate into earnings of course. Showcases durable broad based inference demand in media and ads. Exactly the vector analysts want to see as the AI cycle tilts from training only to training plus always on inference. So that's what the Taylor Swift engagement means for Nvidia's earnings today. Groundbreaking. Gabriel says this is the music that Keith Raboy listened to in 2019 while doing a thousand burpees and right before logging on to reply wrong to a political scientist posting about Pete Buttigieg's South Carolina polling results. This video. This video is hilarious. In the meantime, while they're pulling it up, I'll tell you about numeral sales tax on autopilot spend less than five minutes five minutes per month on sales tax compliance. Numeralhq.com and you know who's going to need to use numeral? Travis Kelsey's new American Eagle line. If you buy some American Eagle, they said. Inside Travis Kelsey's new American Eagle line an ad with athletes including Suni Lee and Keon Anthony. The day after it was revealed that Travis kelce put an 8 carat engagement ring on Taylor Swift's finger, a man American Eagle had announced it had a limited edition clothing line with its sportswear brand True Colors. AE X True Colors by Travis Kelsey will launch in two drops today and on September 24th. So get ready and make sure that you're paying Your sales tax on True Colors. TK Michael Miraflor says nothing is sacred. Monetize everything. Let's pull up the. The dj that. The video. The video is going to be bad. Almost impossible to find. Okay. It's deep in the. Oh, they got it. They did it. Let's pull it up. Let's play this. Get the audio. Get the audio. The audio's key. Let's go full screen on this. This is, like, so annoyingly. I don't know. I was not a fan of this. Did you listen to this? You think it's good? Very Reddit coded. Yeah. But this. I can't believe there's so many people in this putting up with this Mario song. What. What event is this? It doesn't. It doesn't inspire me. You know what we need, like, drop. We need. We need this. You see, the. The. It's like they blow this fog around. Look at this. Yeah, those, like, CO2 canyon cannons for sure. Like that. To blow this. Okay. We got something good out of this. Ben, we need the CO2 can. We need whatever. Yeah, whatever those DJ equipment are. During the lightning round when we were interviewing. And Nick, can you look into the health impact of being in a studio space with CO2 cannons? Regardless, this is very David Solomon coded. Yes. You have to be a Mario fan to understand. Yeah, I get it. I don't know if this would be for me and a big crowd, but who knows? Maybe. Maybe it's fun. It seems like they had fun, and I'm happy for them these days. Not. Not big into paying to be in a crowd. Yeah, that's. Pay to avoid one. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's. That's rough. Anyway, let's go to Will Menaitis. He says, hard to think of a piece of writing that's had a greater impact on my life than John Ludig's index mindset in 2021. This Pro Index tendency, writes John Ludig, pervades the private tech markets, startups, and even our culture through what I call the index mindset. A focus on preservation over creation, optionality over decisiveness, general over specific public companies are an obvious thing to index.
I want to pull up this chart on polymarket of SpaceX Starship fully reusable in 2025. Of course, yesterday was a major market mover. It does not look like anyone had any inside information because the market spiked right as the launch was successful. It jumped from 11% chance that Starship is fully reusable in 2025 to 71% now. The market's hovering at 40%. And the the rules here are. On February 28th, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. The market will revolt, resolve to yes, if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2025. Otherwise the market will resolve no starship. So you are riding on SpaceX and Elon's comms, which of course will be hotly debated. And obviously there's not a pure binary in terms of what reusability means. Clearly this rocket came down and exploded. They need to rebuild it. But even when it comes down, they still need to swap out parts and fix things. They were saying that during this last SpaceX flight they deliberately took off a bunch of tiles just to see if they could do it, what would happen. And so like you can tell as the rocket comes down like a lot of those tiles got roasted and so they might have to, you know, swap those out. There are elements that aren't reusable, but. You'Re definitely gonna swap out the stuff. That was flying around, all the insulation or something. That was one of the wildest, wildest bits that I've seen. Anyway. Well, we have this chart here. Yeah, we have a chart on. We love to trust the experts on this show. We are specifically trusting the experts on the White House int. Intel deal. If you haven't been paying attention, living under a Data center, the U.S. government is now the proud owner of 10% of intel shares. You, you, the U.S. taxpayer now have a small slice of intel, which also means you have a smaller slice of Figure Robotics because apparently intel capital invested in Figure Robotics. So if you were worried that you didn't have exposure, you can. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you can, you can, you can, you can send the, the layered SPV emails that you've been getting to the archive and just be riding with Uncle Sam on that one. But we did a little whirlwind tour of who is saying what about the White House intel deal. Semi analysis seems pretty bullish. Gave the latest the last. It gives the US the last US chip maker, an actual chance to catch up spur the domestic sector. The bid here is that the intel story with the government is not going to stop here and that there will be some sort of pressure or incentive applied to other American tech companies to buy from Intel. Jordan Snyder, friend of the show over at Chinatalk is also bullish. He says it's Intel's only chance is government support. The US needs domestic chip fabrication capabilities and this is a good path. Ben Thompson has a slightly positive bias. He pulled out the steel man term and kind of steel manned it. He said national security and the economy concerns are too accurate, too acute to not keep Intel Foundry viable. Although there he does cite Scott Lincecombe who's extremely bearish and this says this will lead to widespread inefficient capital allocation in the chip sector. That of course is the fear. The Wall Street Journal is also somewhat bearish. Pitting essential US partners Samsung and TSMC against a government owned competitor is a bad idea. I was talking to a few other folks that both they predicted this but they didn't think it's necessarily the good. Yeah it has ripple effects if other companies are getting the are getting strongly encouraged to use Intel's services. Yeah it could make those companies less competitive potentially. The Asianometry was constructive on the deal said could make the deal work by using intel as an Nvidia second source and of course this could potentially hurt Nvidia's margins because the CPUs that Nvidia makes I believe at TSMC are probably high margin. If they have to pay intel their margin will fall. But this is a small piece of Nvidia's overall business and so it shouldn't shouldn't completely upend the amazing business they built. Of course Nvidia is reporting.
Doesn't sound like it doesn't sound like Elizabeth Holmes is giving up either, but she seems to be a big Elon Musk fan. I have been shocked by the out of Home campaign. Have you seen this? Which is not by her. Someone is working on a redemption arc for Elizabeth Holmes and justice for Theranos. I think it's a promotion for the new company of some sort. But it's all over. Yeah, there's a new company I think they're out raising. But the, the, the, the, the billboards are all over LA and they've been up for a long time. Like months and months and months. It's been crazy. Anyway, Ben Gilbert says if you think your app needs more polish, always remember Google Maps. Shift maps without Europe. That's awesome. That is a crazy screenshot. It's crazy that they didn't. Crazy. Yeah. They didn't even think to put like the rough outline of Europe, you know, and be like we don't have details on it. But instead it's just like you can zoom out and you only see America, the States and England. And we got Ireland in there. Of course. Got to keep Ireland in there. Well, if you're building the next Google Maps, get on Linear. Linear app Linear is a purpose built tool for planning and building products. Meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects and product roadmaps. Travis Kelce, right after the announcement launches American Eagle Collection. Yes, and Michael Miraflor says nothing is sacred. Monetize everything. Let's see. Let's check in on the American Eagle stock. It is up another 9% today. So they're just on an absolute terror. Yes, everyone in tech has been focused on the Taylor Swift wedding, particularly what it means for Nvidia earnings. I have a little thesis here. So obviously Taylor Swift getting engaged, that's going to draw a ton of attention towards the NFL. We've already seen the NFL had a measurable swift effect from 2023 to 2024. They saw 9% gain in female viewership year over year. And game level spikes like a 63% jump among women 18 to 49 for a Chiefs game. So imagine this, NFL and streamers. They lean in broadcasters if they escalate, moment capture, more shoulder programming, alternate feeds, multi language clips, real time highlight reels. What do you need? You need real time media. It's an AI problem. Y. You need clipping, scene detection, player id, small object tracking. All of this is going to run on Nvidia GPUs Globalization. You need translation at the edge. Another Classic speech AI billion for Jensen text to speech translation. That's an Nvidia product right there. They have a product Riva that does that. Creators pile in. UGC explodes reaction videos, podcasts, shorts, consumer AI effects, noise removal, eye contact correction, studio voice, increasingly GPU tensive workloads. People are going to be running RTX PCs with Nvidia broadcast software to get to get this stuff. Ad dollars also follows attention incremental audience especially for the new female demos. This is going to pull premium premium dollars to sports ads budgets. This pushes ad tech recommender systems, ranking, creative optimization, frequency control. These are among the most compute hungry inference workloads and an Nvidia sweet spot. They have Merlin for for for recommendations of ads and Triton for serving ads. Stream quality is going to be an arms race. The women, the Swifties, they're going to they're going to demand 4K feeds. Platforms are going to race to improve video. They're going to need to accelerate this with Cuda. This means more GPU accelerated pre and post processing in cloud workflows. Sports production is going to modernize autonomous cameras. Analytics are a blueprint for low tier games. These techniques climb the stack for tentpole events. More AI in the truck, more GPUs at the edge in cloud Transcode farms, Hyperscaler. Capex is the real lever here. Aws, Google, Microsoft, Meta, they fund the compute behind all of this. Imagine 2026 CAPEX guides. They're going through the roof over. We're going to be in hundreds of billions of dollars just supporting the swifty demand for NFL content powered by immersive. Exactly. And so all this is going to translate into earnings of course. Showcases durable broad based inference demand in media and ads. Exactly. The vector analysts want to see as the AI cycle tilts from training only to training plus always on inference. So that's what the Taylor Swift engagement means for Nvidia's earnings today. Groundbreaking. Gabriel says this is the music that Keith Raboy listened to in 2019 while doing a thousand burpees. And right before logging on to reply wrong to a political scientist posting about Keith Buttigieg's South Carolina polling result.