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At this point, Michael had a very funny interaction where he got banned for OpenAI for cyber abuse. He had no idea what he did. He pasted the ban notice into Codex, which I don't know how he was still using Codex if he was banned, but he said he asked IT to figure out what triggered the ban. Codex found that it had asked for an API key to his own server. Codex wrote the appeal, submitted the appeal a few minutes later. The appeal was auto approved by an AI at OpenAI. So he was banned by AI, convicted by AI, defended by AI and pardoned by AI in about 10 minutes. What a funny, funny round trip in the world.

It and we can move on. Do you want to tell us, did you know, did you know, John, that Love island is suddenly driving a surge of women to the prediction market? Cal Sheet. I feel like we predicted this. I feel like this was something we talked about a year ago or something. But it's not surprising to me. But it's interesting to see it show up in the data. But tell me more. Yeah, I would have expected the first kind of breakout like media property in that would really be driving net new people into platforms like this would have been the turnt it down cinematic universe. Right. Bet on that. Betting. Did he turn it down? And if so, how much did Big Boogie. Yes. How much did he turn down? Right. 15, 10, 5. And then you could also bet on. Well, how long did they want him to be there? Was it actually a decade? Was it actually a decade? Right. Was it a standard quarter term? And so there's a lot of markets there. But the show Love Island, a reality dating competition where singles live together in a villa, couple up, get eliminated, and compete for a cash prize, has become an unusually active trading category. According to Barron's, the current season drove 106% increase in weekly active female mobile users of Kalshi between June 8 and June 28, compared with a 54% increase among men. Love island markets have now generated roughly 52 million in trades. And they have three times as many female traders as male traders. The show's format, format makes it almost perfectly designed for this. Episodes air six days a week, are released close to real time. Six days a week. How many episodes in a season? I would assume it was once a week. Wait, so they're airing it in real time? So it's close to live or close to real time? I think there's a new episode every day and it's like six or eight weeks. Whoa. And how many, how many seasons do they do a year? I think it might be every, like season. It's either like summer and winter or summer, winter, fall, spring. We're clearly experts on this. There's different locations around the world. Okay, Okay, I need a market on how long until there's an insider trading scandal on Love island for sure. And like, because there's no, no contact to the outside. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But what happens when somebody, you know, airdrops facility, you know, skyriding over that carrier pigeon. Yeah, I need my emotional support pigeon. And then you find out that they're writing. I. Yeah. And it's like you can just tell, like if somebody was, you know, Potentially a high potential candidate. They could tell their family. Bet everything. Bet you know, I'm, I'm going to look great until I don't even know the plot of this show. I just know that people are coupling up and getting eliminated. But I'm going to take it all the way. And then in the final second, I'm going to, I'm going to just fall apart. Right. And so there's there, I think almost certainly there will be an insider trading scandal on the Love island prediction markets by the end of the 2027 is my prediction. Okay, so there's one Love Island USA season per year, but there's also two. Like the original show is the British version and there's two of those per year. So that's three. Says production staff has their phones. It's just the contestants that don't. So the production staff could do it. Yeah. Interesting. It'll happen. Well, did you know that Chris Williamson was on Love Island 2015? Was that how he broke out? I mean, it was like a big moment for him. How did he do? Broad scheme. I don't know how he did, but you can pull up. Should he be running a Love island hedge fund? Prediction markets? Hedge fund, maybe. Maybe. What happened? The former club promoter and model was dumped from the villa on day 19. Since his reality TV stint, he's become one of the UK's most successful podcasters. Now he went on a generational run with Modern Wisdom. He entered the 2015 series as an original cast member on day one. During his time in the villa, he had a brief coupling arrangement with Danielle, Lauren, Richardson, Zoe. Ultimately, he failed to form a lasting romantic connection and was voted out by his fellow islanders on day 19. Reflecting on his. There you go. I put another photo in the timeline. That's wild. Reflecting on his time on the show in later interviews, Williams described it as a slightly surreal and and boring experience. He noted that the environment forced him to confront his need for external validation and made him realize he didn't belong in the party boy Persona he was portraying. And of course, he's done a fantastic job with Modern Wisdom where inspiring fans. Very, very interesting. Oh, this is interesting. Yeah, not that. Look at Chris call sheet prediction market on his body fat. Percentage bars have started treating Love island like a live sporting event, including Tom's Watch Bar in Sacramento where one watch party reportedly generated $30,000 in a single night during an otherwise slow sports season. The Love Island USA finale airs Sunday, July 12. In two days, we'll see if call she can keep up. Yeah. It does feel like there's an opportunity in, in sports bars for reality tv, now that the category is so mature, people are betting on it. Well, yeah, the, the, the. One of the big issues that I would have thought there would be with an idea like that is just like, if a show is only airing once a week and someone's only into one, you know, like, is there enough content? Whereas, like, there's something happening in sports pretty much all the time, but clearly plenty of content.

And I want to do an analysis. This is something we gotta look at. I want to know who has the bulkiest security guard. Because a lot of people are focused on the billionaires, the tech titans who are making a statement at Sun Valley. They all look great. Everyone's lost weight. GLP1s are flowing, but nothing impresses having an absolute mass monster flanking them up. Exactly. It's a new status symbol. And so whoever is pictured with the bulkiest, largest security guard. Security guard. Hasn't won at least the Arnold a couple times. I think. I think that's the new status symbol. Everyone shows up on the exact same private. Oh, really? Another Gulf stream. Cool. Yeah, the whole parking lot's filled with Gulf streams. It's all Gulf streams. But how do you differentiate? You defer. You differentiate with the mass that your bodyguard is carrying around. You want a big guy. I was surprised to see Ishowspeed doing. Doing a whole stream from. From Sun Valley, but. But he's really on the rise. I can see it. I can see it.

Who went to Sun Valley, but they were photographed elsewhere. Ovitz, you know, the Sun Valley photos are starting to trickle out on Alamy stock. Getty Images, and I want to do an analysis. This is something we got to look at. I want to know who has the bulkiest security guard, because a lot of people are focused on the billionaires, the tech titans who are making a. Making a statement at. At Sun Valley. They all look great. Everyone's lost weight. GLP1s are flowing, you know, but nothing impresses like having an absolute mass monster. You line them up exactly. It's a new status symbol. And so whoever is pictured with the bulkiest, largest security guard. Security guard. Hasn't won at least the Arnold a couple times. I think. I think that's the new status symbol. Everyone shows up on the exact same private. Oh, really? Another gulf stream. Cool. Yeah, the whole parking lot's filled with gulf streams. It's all gulf streams. But how do you differentiate? You differentiate with the mass that your bodyguard is carrying around. You want a big guy. I was surprised to see Ishowspeed doing a whole stream from Sun Valley, but he's really on the rise. I can see it. I can see it. What is this? Cheeseburger Arbitrage. Did you put this in here? Tyler, what's going on with this? You can arbitrage cheeseburgers at the.

What is this? Cheeseburger arbitrage. Did you put this in here, Tyler? What's going on with this? You can arbitrage cheeseburgers at the Barcelona airport. Oh, that's because the Double cheeseburger is five. You can just get two and stack them. You can just get two and Stack them. You should just get two regular cheeseburgers for $1.70 each and then be set up there. Selling them each. Yeah, just set up a stand outside. What they don't show you is what's to the left. Because there's something psychological about setting the middle option high. You see this at a lot of movie theaters. The small popcorn will be $3, the large popcorn will be $7, and then the medium popcorn will be $6.50. And so you're like, oh, well, I really just want a medium, but it's $6.50. For $0.50 more, I'll get the large. And sometimes they don't even stock the medium size. If you actually order the medium, they'll just say, oh, we're out of mediums. I'm just going to upgrade you to a large and charge you the medium price. But psychologically, they got you thinking that $7 for a large is cheaper. So it's possible that there's a triple cheeseburger there for 5.25, and they're getting tons of people to upgrade to a 525 triple cheeseburger and skip the more affordable single cheeseburger entirely. I mean, I. I know from experience that both of these items are real. They're real. Yeah. Which one did you buy in the past? Yes, I think I've had both. I mean, you've had both. You felt the real alpha is, is that you can actually, there's a different item called a mcdouble, which is a double cheeseburger, but there's only one piece of cheese. Only one piece. This is way cheaper. Yeah, that's just some alpha for all the everyone in chat crazy.

Bloomberg report says FIA's mobile extension is firing without any FIA interaction at all. So give this to me in horse terms. So you go from horsereviews.com over to Clydesdale's Direct. You merely have FIA install as an extension. You don't check any. You don't know that FIA has been a part of the interaction at all. You don't know. You just click through. But you have all of the software running in your browser that is inserting a effectively attribution for fear without you knowing. Stealing potential revenue from horserviews.com yes. And horserviews.com probably had to run ads on Google to get people to horserviews.com exactly. To educate them on the horse market, to get them to Clydesdale's direct to get them to close. And so they're sitting here being like, hey, we did all this work to get clydesdalesdirect.com a new customer and we're not being compensated for clydesdalesdirect and say, well, normally I'm sending a check to horsereviews.com I guess I'm sending a check to FIA now. Whatever. As long as I'm getting customers, I'm fine. Ari? Yes, the world champion of the chat today says, okay, this is like old school ad fraud. So one of the concerning things here is that I think this had been running since like January or December as the article said. And so they had some software update that was pushed, this started happening. So it's been happening for let's say around six months. And you would assume that they would have figured this out, that, hey, if it genuinely was an error and corrected it, right? Yeah, but maybe it's possible that it, I don't know a lot of. I mean, it's not the biggest scale. I think the number is 12 million plus in sales driven. So the commission on that is like $1 million. That's sort of like missing. And it's so diffuse across so many different E commerce providers. I guarantee you, as someone who's run multiple E commerce sites, I would not notice if a couple hundred dollars moved from one affiliate to another because I'm one of a million sites that were affected by this. So it rolls up to a big number, 12 million plus in sales driven. But the actual commission might be 3%. So you might be looking at like 300k or something like that of actual money that moved to the wrong place. Bloomberg's not actually alleging a particular crime if the facts are accurate. The. The behavior appears far beyond mere rudeness. Though affiliate network contracts generally require a genuine user referral and often require shopping extensions to stand down when another publisher supplied the consumer. You're not supposed to override the supplier of the consumer. Google expressly prohibits background links injection background affiliate link injection and replacing tracking without a related user action. Apple also requires Safari affiliate redirects to be disclosed. Civil theories such as deceptive practices, unjust enrichment, interference with contracts and unauthorized attention alteration of tracking data are therefore quite plausible. Deliberate forced click cookie stuffing can even become wire fraud. The Justice Department has prosecuted people for receiving commissions on sales they didn't generate but that requires proof of intent and other facts we do not have yet about fia. The fair bottom line not proven criminal. But if Bloomberg accurately describes an intentional revenue mechanism rather than a bug this looks like like potential unlawful affiliate fraud. Now everyone on the timeline was preying on Phoebe's downfall way before this. Way before this. People people.

I'm interested in the fact that they have not talked a lot about text generation for ad copy. Like, there are clearly people that are sick of the turns of phrase used by LLMs, broadly, the. You're absolutely right. All the claudisms. And then ChatGPT has the. It's not this, it's that, or did until they. They sort of work that piece out and then a new one pops up every couple weeks and people get annoyed by it. And it seems like there's actually an opportunity for Meta to create an LLM that's just really good at writing advertising copy. And it's not necessarily as focused on deep research reports or agent decoding, but it's super powering the ad platform and figuring out should they be using emojis, how many emojis should they be using. Bullet points, when and rl. Yeah. And if you're going after business customers. Yeah. Why not build something that your business customers would use and love? And I'm sure that every ad, every business that's running ads on Meta right now is going to ChatGPT and Claude and saying, generate me 50 different lines of copy that I can use for my ads. Obviously they're doing this, but if Meta can outperform them at that, because the big labs are not really focused on copy that converts or like landing page optimization. Right. They're focused on. I know where you're going with this. What are you thinking? Zuck drops an E Commerce mastermind course to help fund the capex. Yeah. I love it. $5,000. I'll teach you everything I know about E Commerce. Give it away for free. You're gonna spend a lot more than that. But yeah, the Zuck course generates billions. Yeah, it would. It would. Anyway, let's move on to our next story, but first, let me tell you about Railway. Railway is the all in one intelligence.

Mm, that's real. Okay, let's go over to movies. Hollywood's horror meme gold rush is minting millionaires. We talked about this with backrooms. The originally 4chan creepypasta that wound up being a viral YouTube channel and then a full Hollywood movie That made over $100 million, I believe. But there are many more pieces of intellectual property in the horror meme genre and they're all getting scooped up. And that was Hormozi, by the way. It did look like Hormozi. It did look like Hormozi. So the creator of a monster called Siren Head scores a rich deal as studios hunt for the next backroom style hit in the Wall Street Journal. Trevor Henderson drew a faceless monster called Siren Head eight years ago. That's pretty creepy. I'm not a fan eight years ago. And watched it spawn YouTube films, knockoff, Amazon.com merchandise and video games. But he never made a penny from his creation. Interesting. He just sol spawned this horrific meme and then hadn't profited on it until now. So he's a 40 year old illustrator and he told he sold the Siren Head movie rights to Warner Brothers for more than a million dollars. Pretty cool that he just illustrated this weird thing and then made so much money. According to people familiar with the matter, the deal was part of a new Hollywood gold rush to find concepts and talent online that could fuel the next horror hit like Backrooms and Obsession. I wasn't seeing any financial benefit from Siren Head for years and I just made peace with that idea, Henderson said from his home in Toronto. So the last few weeks have been disorienting. Since the 2000s, the movie business has been dominated like franchises like Marvel, Harry Potter, Jurassic World, which are owned or controlled by major studios. But Backrooms was based on an Internet meme, and Obsession is an original film from a director who became famous online. Chris says, that's the 5G cell tower in my backyard. That is. Maybe there's describe the 5G tower as a indie horror film character. Yeah, maybe there's something of like, why do people find this disturbing? That they've psychologically learned to be afraid of cell phone towers or cell phone towers have infiltrated their neighborhoods and so they have an aversion to this. Naturally, studios are trying to find the next potential horror hit that already has proven its appeal to gen Z on YouTube, Reddit, or this is interesting, Roblox. So people that make Roblox games might wind up selling the rights to to Hollywood studios. The chair co chair of Warner's Motion picture group. Michael DeLuca said, We're seeing them as a resource for adaptations the same way we look at books and other media. The race for hot digital properties resembles the kind of dog fights for buzzy scripts that used to be common in Hollywood during the 80s and 90s. Eleven studios recently bid on the film rights to the psychological horror YouTube series the Mandela Catalog. Amazon owned UTA, Amazon owned United Artists and Steven Spielberg's Amblin Entertainment ultimately agreed to pay millions of dollars and let the video's 22 year old creator, Alex Kister, direct the movie. That's very interesting. Daniel says, what's the obsession with horror? There's something wrong with you if you're into that. Totally agree, Totally agree. I walked outside this morning at 5am as I'm getting in my car, I realized there's two massive coyotes 20ft from me in my yard. If I was a horror movie enthusiast, I would be probably thinking like, it's over. It's been a good run. Two massive. And would you be excited because you're like, I'm in a horror movie. This has been my dream. Maybe, maybe. But instead I just looked at them and I saluted. I gave them a whistle. You put your rare set of skills to work. You didn't start snapping necks and doing cut through everything you've learned from watching UFC Headlock for the coyote. There was clearly like a level of mutual respect that was. That was special to be a part of. I just looked at them salute, nod. One of them actually just climbed over the fence, just fully climbing that. That was a little, kind of creepy. I was like, I didn't know dogs could climb like that. But it was good. My theory growing. I never gravitated to horror movies, but my theory was always, if I don't watch them, I will not. I won't be afraid. Walking, Walking at night. Like I grew up in the country. I grew up in the country. You know, teenager in the country. You know, you're going around on adventures, stuff like that. The team has made a or found. No, this is a real movie. This is real movie. Coyotes. Watch this, you're going to be terrified. Oh, take it down, take it down. You're scared. It's called Sleep is the Enemy. Sleep is the Enemy. Don't fall. See, there you go. If you're a coyote. I woke up this morning, oh, there's another video, another movie. Horror film about coyotes eat the rich. That sounds crazy. Yeah. Jack said there were just three dogs this morning, not two coyotes and a man. My take is. Well, first, what about. What's it called? Immersion therapy. If you are afraid of heights and you go and you expose yourself to heights often, you won't be afraid of heights anymore. Do you not believe in immersion therapy? Jordi? He's locked in. I was just looking at the video. I did take a couple videos of the coyotes. That was fine. Immersion therapy. You're not a believer? No, I just. I wasn't going to do something I didn't enjoy doing that I felt like had very little. I always had a fear of snakes. I was the Indiana Jones growing up, and then my roommate in college had a snake, and I'd play with it and it was fine, and then I sort of got over it. Still don't love snakes, but it's not a mortal fear. It's not like you think of what I'm thinking. No, you're gonna do that thing where you, like, snatch this in the office. You've seen those pranks where they take the rubber snake and then they clip it onto the person's jacket. Gone. Go, hit the. Go. Hit the gong. Go, hit the gong. And then, alas.

Of fun. The other filmmaker who's in the news is Uwe Bol, and we have to revisit him. He has a very controversial film that's panned by critics but apparently loved by audiences. But what is interesting about this filmmaker is that although he has been panned critically many, many times, In, I believe, 2004, he challenged any. Any journalist who had written a negative review about his movies to fight him physically in a boxing ring. Sounds ridiculous. Sounds like, oh, that's just him throwing out some crazy claim. Certainly no one's going to take him up on it. Especially not a film writer who doesn't even really care about this director and doesn't have any boxing experience. Well, five of them showed up and Uwe Boll defeated them all. He. He invited them. He gave them a free trip to Vancouver where they will enter a boxing match against him. This does not end well. Excited for the documentary heckler. And we can play a little bit of this because do we have sound on the Blood Rain and Alone in the Dark. His movies are bad. They're terrible, they're awful. They're hypnotically bad. But they're so bad on such a gigantic, huge operatic scale. Such a operatic scale. And he actually got sponsored. There's a gambling website that sponsored this whole event. And everyone's having a very rough time. I don't know what they were thinking. Apparently he promised to give them some sort of training beforehand, and he didn't. And they were upset about that, but they still got in the ring with him and got completely destroyed. It's an absolutely insane, insane story. Very, very fun.

Very, very interesting. There's another interesting thing. Paul Graham was sharing a chart from a Brown professor at Brown University. He gave his students a take home midterm exam. After suspecting many cheated using AI, he made the final in person. The orange dots are the midterm scores and the gray dots are the final scores. Looks like all three cheated on the midterm. And you got to zoom in here because there's a person at the top. Midterm, 95.5 final exam score. 95. Clearly just very talented, didn't cheat. But then you go down to student number 22, 55 on the midterm, 59 on the final. Dumb as rocks, but doesn't cheat. That person's going some places they know they got a grind and they improve their score by 4%. They did better on the final than the midterm and they're the only person that actually improved. And then you gotta also hand it to students 57 and 58. 100% on the midterm, at the very bottom, 100% on the midterm, zero on the final. Just didn't learn a single thing the entire semester. Maybe they're just AGI peeled. Yeah, maybe. Maybe they're like, I don't, why would I ever not have access to ChatGPT? I always will have access, therefore I don't need to learn anything. It's so brazen to cheat that much. At least some of the, some of the midterm cheaters, you know, they're putting up 95s, they're getting 33s on the final, very, you know, reasonable. They learn something. But to actually put up the 100 on the midterm and walk into the final, know that, I mean, you had some advance notice that the final was in is in person. Probably you didn't study at all. You couldn't put up one point on the board. Absolutely savage.