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EpisodeĀ 5-21-2026
Sometimes. Anyway, son Al Gheeb says, can someone check on Gary February 23, 2026? He said, turns out, Jenny, I was a scam. I had to check the date on this because this seems like something he would have written in like 2024. And I would have been like, ah, okay, yeah, maybe the usages are a little limited. Maybe where there is some sort of wall here, the data wall or you know, maybe we won't be able to, you know, maybe we will need new, new paradigm. But to Write this in 2026 when we're in like the acceleration in terms of actual value from these models is pretty, pretty remarkable. I'm interested to see where he goes from this. Is he going to double down? Is he going to stick with this? It has been a couple of months since I think, I think there's, I think, I think the, the entire crypto boom and NFTs in particular just broke a lot of people's brains. Yeah, NVR metaverse too. Metaverse. Another thing that was Metaverse. And under delivered Metaverse. Yeah. Potentially even more. Yeah, yeah, yeah. There was a lot of discussion about this will destroy Hollywood, this will destroy movies, like everything but the metaverse. There was never, there was never a moment where you could use a product and have a mind blowing experience. Well, without paying for it. Like you had to buy. No, no, I'm just saying, I'm just saying like period. No, no, no. The Apple Vision Pro demo. Like there was a day you called me and you were like, why is everyone losing their mind on the timeline over the Apple Vision Pro? Do I need to buy one of these? And I was like, it's kind preview. It's not like perfectly there. I like it. But it's. I don't even think I. But there was, I don't think you're remembering correctly because there was no moment where I wanted to buy one. No, no, no, you didn't want to. But you recognize that it was the current thing. When the Apple Vision Pro launched for like that week when everyone got them delivered and they tried them, there were a lot of people, they had Vision Pro psychosis. Vision Pro psychosis. A lot of people had NFT psychosis. All sorts of psychosis. We'll see how the AI psychosis develops. It goes both ways.
And Peter Hague says, just reading the SpaceX SEC document, one thing that sticks out is the capital spend on AI is 3x that on space. It's an AI company with some rockets, which is a wild, wild pivot. At the last. It's the 11th hour. You know, this has been a rocket company for 20 years or 15 years. Then an Internet company with Starlink, but that was still so tied and so clear and so quick to get to, like a logical link. Like, you needed the launch capacity, capacity to build Starlink. And so you had this new capability, satellite Internet. It was amazing. And it went from idea to launching the satellites to consumers actually using it when they're traveling, camping off the grid, real. And then showing up in planes and all sorts of different applications. It became very, very relevant, very real very quickly. And the, the Colossus X, that felt like a different company because it was, it felt like a different initiative, but it has just become so, so, so big so quickly. Yeah. And looking back at the plays Elon and his investors have made around this over the last year, right there was. That felt like somewhat of a coordinated effort at the. Was it beginning of this year, late last year, when suddenly everyone started talking about space data centers. Very suddenly. Remember Gavin Baker? Yeah. Started coming out. That's around the time when they sort of floated the. I believe it was December of last year. Started floating. Floating the idea of, like, what the potential valuation would be. Started building that AI narrative. Started, you know, made a play for Cursor, you know, partnered with Anthropic, even though, you know, only a few months ago they were much more combative. Yeah. Name calling. So, yeah, he, you know, I think this is why Elon has been able to accumulate so much capital. Is like, he is pretty much the best in the world at just making plays. Yeah, Making plays and doing whatever it takes. Yeah. So.
Has had a couple interesting takes. People are going back and forth. Overall, the reception has been the S1 is an extremely enjoyable read. Kevin Kwok says it's the most enjoyable S1 read in a long time. Reads so easy like sci fi or fiction. And it's kind of the perfect post or just regular. Because if you're pro tech, you like space, you're excited about space, that could be a positive. Yes. But if you're, if you're a bear, you can say it reads almost like science fiction. Pure fiction. Science fiction, of course. The best TAM slide ever. Probably the best TAM slide ever. Sawyer Merritt has the screenshot here. SpaceX and IPO filing we believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history. We estimate that our Quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion, consisting of 370 billion in space from space enabled solutions, 1.6 trillion in ConnectIV, 870 billion in Starlink broadband and 740 billion in Starlink mobile, as well as additional opportunities in enterprise and government. 26.5 trillion in AI across, 2.4 trillion in AI infrastructure, 760 billion in consumer subscriptions, 600 billion in digital advertising. That's massive. Well, is that for X? I don't know the idea. So so. And 20 everything else is more believable. Everything else is more believable to me than X getting meaningful digital advertising penetration. Yeah, I guess the time matters here because a lot of these markets aren't this big currently, I think. I don't know. But I guess over time, if you think about the next 25 years, the next hundred years, I don't know if these are inflation adjusted, but there's lots of things that could happen for illustrative purposes of sizing our addressable market. SpaceX excluded China and Russia from global estimates. I feel like you might want to put in China and Russia over the next couple decades. Who knows, maybe we become best buds with both companies, with both countries, you know, anything can happen.