LIVE CLIPS
EpisodeĀ 4-7-2026
Unexpected. I didn't think anyone would do this. We were joking about it, and they just went and did it. We stopped doing ads. But NASA. NASA's doing carrying torch. Okay, let's see. Is that a Scorch Daddy or something? Yes. Scrub Daddy. Yes. That's the viral infomercial product, right? Yes. And then a liquid death as well. Is there a liquid death? This is. This has to be fake, right? The Taco Bell thing? This is a joke. I can't tell. Is the Nutella's in here. These are. Seems to be real. Nutella AI Generator or something. Yeah, Grok wanted me to tell you it's real. I don't know. It does seem like people are having fun with this, but. Yeah, very, very funny. All right.
Be careful up there. Have you seen this image of the Instagram growth guru? This goes viral constantly and normally it's like a reels reaction video. But someone took that this exact message and put it on X and it went mega viral with 130,000 likes. Instagram growth gurus are so funny. He can't use his laptop because he's holding a drink. He can't drink because he has a cigar in his mouth. He can't smoke his cigar because both hands are occupied. I think this is surmountable though. I think you can actually hold the cigar with the martini or something. But it is true. Like peak performative growth guru. Very, very funny. But I'm sure it had its intended purpose. Chase Passive Insub says, that's my mentor you're talking about. He makes multiple eight figures in passive income and only charges $25,000 for a full day. Boot camp mastermind to teach me his strategies. Delete the.
Triple glaze. Double kill. 5 cup. Raw. Cup is butter glaze. Team deathmatch. We are experts. Triple plays. Let's just roll right. Market clearing order inbo. Come on, get up. You're surrounded by gentlemen. Hold your position. Strike 1. Strike 2. Activate. Go. Golden retriever mode. Trust. Market clearing order inbound. Five. Founder, You're watching TVPN. Today is Tuesday, April 7th, 2026. We are live from the TV panel to home. The temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. Let's pull up the lineup because we have a great show for you today, folks. We have Riley Walls, the jester of Silicon Valley. You had a different name for him when he came on. There was something else. Internet Rascal. Internet rascal. That was it. He is a rascal. He's coming on to talk about the auction to name a street in San Francisco. We have a whole bunch of funding news. Aditya Bandy from noon. Zach Schorr from Hermeus is coming on. Wang Wei Lu from Mapadin is coming on. And then Zach Kukoff and Thomas Lafont are joining us live in person in the TVPN ultradome. Well, there is a whole bunch of news to run through. The first story is that Meta employees are apparently token maxing and competing on an internal leaderboard called Clawdonomics for status as a token legend. This is from the information. Over a recent 30 day period, total usage on the dashboard topped 60 trillion tokens. And this sparked a huge debate over how much is Meta actually spending with Anthropic. Of course the other big news is that anthropic just passed 30 billion in run rate revenue with one of the probably the steepest revenue growth chart in human history. Absolutely legendary. Yeah. This chasing status as a token legend reminds me of maybe it was a year ago at this point you were saying will tokens ever become like eyeballs? The way eyeballs were during the. Yeah, during the dot com era. Yeah, right. Just optimized for eyeballs. Obviously not every eyeball visit to a website is created equally, but people were optimizing for eyeballs. And now you know, I don't. The reaction to this I think has been generally, at least online, like been, I guess, reassuring. A lot of people are saying Gary Basin says you. Why? Marty says Goodhart's law. When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. And so who knows what's actually going on internally. But we do know Zuck is pushing the entire company to be as AI native as possible. And this guy loves Spending money too. Right. I have a crazy bull case here that I will run through. Let's get through some of the story first. We gotta pull up this comic from XKCD in the comments here. When a metric becomes a target, it ceases to be a good metric. It's right under the leading post. There we go. And the other counterparty says, sounds bad. Let's offer a bonus to anyone who identifies a metric that has become a target. It is good. I don't think that's what's going on here. Lighter was texting a friend at Meta and sent the post we just discussed on token maxing and said true. And the person said, yes, it's pretty sad, but I mean imagine Meta has been. There's been rumors of metal layoffs for a while now. Sure. Unclear how many, if any, if any have happened. But if you're sitting there, the company Zuck is saying like we need to get AI native. Boss is saying we need to get AI native. And then suddenly there's a Token leaderboard. Yeah, you do not want to be at the bottom of the list. I will say that. Right? Yeah. You know, you don't want to be the, you don't want to be the guy who's having to explain like, no, well, I've actually getting the most out of each incremental token and the other guys just like set up a. Set up an agent that just counts 12 million single line over and over and over or something. Yeah, yeah. I mean you have to measure the actual output, the impact on the business. I mean, fortunately Metta has been a huge beneficiary and a huge winner of AI. The ads are getting better targeting, they're seeing, they're delivering more ads and, and the quarterly earnings have been strong. The headline number here that, that sort of took everyone by surprise is that Meta's staff used. This is from the information Meta's. The story claims that meta staff used 60.2 trillion tokens over 30 days, which would pencil out to about a third of anthropics. ARR was the number that was thrown out. But both of these claims are pretty questionable. And so Tyler did some back of the envelope math to show that the 1/3 revenue estimate is way, way too high. And I don't know, do you want to take us through some of the reasoning there and the number we can talk about the knock on effects of all this. Yeah. Okay, so 60.2 trillion tokens is the number like we can just assume that's true. So basically I'm going to assume that all the employees are basically just using Opus 4.6. So then there's basically three numbers you need to look for in the API cost. So there's like, input, there's cached input, and then there's output. Sure. So for Opus 4.6, it's $5 per million tokens on input. It's $0.50 per million tokens on cash input, cashed, and then it's $25 on output. Yeah. So if you multiply that 60.2 trillion tokens at the highest possible rate, $25 per million tokens, then you do get like $1 billion. Yes. Which is crazy. That's not what's a crazy number. But like, you have to think about it like, you know, if you're using like Claude code or any of these coding agents, you know, the vast, vast majority of the of the tokens used is input. Yeah. Because like, so imagine you're working on some, you know, coding file, right? Yeah. There's a thousand lines of code in the file. Maybe the model is only changing like, like 10 at most. Right. So that's a very small percentage. So the output tokens are going to be, you know, a very small percentage of the total tokens going in, right? Yeah. So Open openrouter publishes like a lot of this data, so you can kind of use those ratios to figure out what is actually, like, what are the actual numbers of, of the, you know, input versus cache versus output. Yep. So this is just to get sort of like market standard averages, like baseline benchmarks. Now, Meta could be using these tools differently, but if we are to assume that they're the shape of their agent, decoding efforts are similar to the average. This is what the numbers look like. So maybe there is like some, you know, bad incentive where people are just saying to the model, like, count up to a billion and then do it again. So then it's like totally skewed. But if you. They're doing it relatively normally. Yeah. So on OpenRider, it's about 98.9% of all tokens are input input, and that's including dashed ones. Right. Because you're stuffing the context window with all your code base or a huge amount of context. It's going. That's not changing every time. So you can cache it. Yep, yep, yep. So that's like 1.1% as output. So basically, if you basically get all the numbers, that means like the kind of mean token, the million tokens is going to be $2 and around 26 cents. So that'll get you to something like $136 million a month for the 60 trillion tokens. Right. So that's like way less than the 900. So that would be 1.6 billion a year. Like run rate still huge. That's a lot. But that is still in the max. Yeah, that's like. I'll talk about this assuming they're in the top. Yeah, that's assuming that open router, the kind of breakdown of how they're using the tokens is the same as open router, which I think it's not. But if we assume that that's like $4,500 per engineer. If there are, I think 30,000 engineers at Meta. Yeah. Every month. $4,500 on tokens. $4,500. That's actually in line with what I've heard a lot of other people spending in terms of their token budgets. $5,000. That's not like absurd. Absurd if you're trying to incentivize people to use them. Yeah, yeah. No, not at all. But so. So you can actually see the breakdown on OpenRider of how people are using tokens. So 17. The biggest plurality is OpenClaw, which is 17.6%. Yeah. And then Claude Code is 16.8. Sure. So I think if you think about CLAUDE code, you would imagine that like in cloud code, there's the kind of percentage of cash tokens is going to be higher than in Open Claw. Yeah. So I think Meta's usage is actually going to be more heavily based on the cash tokens. Sure. So if you do it just based off like cloud code usage, you'd actually see a higher percentage of the input tokens of the total tokens. So it's only like 0.8% is the output. So then if you get all those numbers through again, it's only like 55 million a month, which would be 669 million a year and each engineer would be like $1,800. Yeah, yeah. That's actually pretty low. Which is like, I think, very reasonable. John Chu over at Khosla says plenty of my Meta friends told me folks have been building bots that just run in a loop burning tokens as fast as they can due to this policy. It is an app, it's an absolutely stupid policy. And it's similar to how Meta uses lines of code to measure engineering output. Managers are supposed to use it as a proxy and dig in to understand where complexity. But plenty of managers are lazy and just don't. That was in response To Christina over at Linear, saying ranking engineers by token spent is like me ranking my marketing team by who spent the most money. Yeah, we may not have hit our KPIs, but Joe spent 200,000 on a branded blimp that only flies over his own house. So he's getting promoted to vp. I'm pro branded blimps, though. I like that idea. So my take on this was that, yeah, it sort of ties to what Jensen Huang was talking about at GTC. He was saying that an engineer that's making $500,000 might soon command something on the order of $250,000 a year in token budget. Andhra Karpathy had a similar line. He said it's all about tokens. He said on a podcast last month, what is your token throughput and what token throughput do you command? And so Meta actually has two different harnesses internally. They have a version of openclaw called My Claw. And then they also, of course, acquired. But it appears that they're running Claude, maybe Opus, under the hood to actually generate the tokens that come through those harnesses. The interesting thing is that at 250k AI budget per engineer, you're at like 20,000amonth. And so, based on Tyler's math, this feels like, okay, there's going to be another maybe 4x to get to Jensen's prediction. The. The baseline that was going viral around, oh, Meta spent like maybe $1 billion last month with Anthropic, that would work out to like $83,000 a month, which is absolutely insane. And I don't think anyone's really thinking that that's what's. What's going on here. But this felt a lot of people were saying, like, this is, you know, there's a lot of. The other thing is like ARR is, is the annualized run rate version. Right. Which, which does come down. We don't know how they calculate it. Sure, sure. Yeah. I'm assuming they're not choosing like a Saturday. Yeah, like multiplying that. Right? Sure, sure. But the bigger question is, like, a lot of people, you know, John Chu there is saying that, you know, oh, this is like a bad metric and maybe it is, but I think it makes clearer the strategy with Meta Superintelligence Lab, because if you're looking at, you know, it's clear that they're spending hundreds of millions of dollars on this just for internal code gen tooling, like running their business. They are going to spend an inordinate amount of money on frontier inference. And so training A model there they will be able to amortize the training cost of the next model that they build. Not just over can they get a product out that goes viral and becomes its own standalone chat app that people pay for. Or maybe it's ad supported just on the internal usage. They could be running a multi billion dollar token bill that they would have to pay another lab. And so if they develop that internally, it's pure vertical integration. And then you also have everything that's happening on the actual ad targeting and content delivery side. And when you add up all of those, all of a sudden the big question has been like, does matter? Is Meta going to be able to launch an entirely new AI product like Vibes or something like that? And this is a data point that to me says they don't need to because just from a pure vertical, vertical integration story, the investment in MSL can pencil out. Are you ready? I just want you to get to your schizo theory. What's the schizo theory that you. That, that this, this, this whole like token maxing is like a barrage while they distill the model. Oh, oh yeah, yeah. I mean there is a world where if you're running, if you're generating trillions and trillions of a frontier model like Meta is really like burning through a lot of tokens and you have generated everything. Oh, we're just token maxing. Yeah. I mean there's another story about distilling we'll get to later in the show. But there is a question about if I, if I have a, if I write an essay and then I have a model rewrite it. Those tokens, they are from that model provider. I buy them, they become mine. Can I train on them? That's probably out of terms of service. So you would think no. But you sort of wind up in this ship of Theseus world where if Meta pays Anthropic $100 million or $1 billion to go rewrite every line of code, every email, every slack chat, every internal message, like basically map the entire organization, rebuild it. They wind up with an incredible training corpus that they can use for their next model. But I would imagine that they can't. And I imagine that the enterprise contracts go both ways. The lab can't train on the corporate information that's standard in all of the enterprise contracts. And I would imagine that the opposite is true as well. Although it is this fuzzy ship of Theseus world where if you're using coding agents to upgrade your infrastructure and then you want to run and train Some model on your infrastructure, do you have to pull out the tokens that were revised by the AI lab that you don't have the right to train on? It's all very interesting. Apparently startups that have gone out of business are able to sell their corporate histories for something like a million dollars to data brokerage firms and AI labs now. Have you heard about this? Yeah, heard about it. I'm skeptical. I mean, I mean certainly there's a market for it, but basically all the code needs more data. Company built over a few years, maybe they raised code but also usage within different enterprise. Yeah, all sorts of different stuff basically like an RL environment or something that can help whatever business process they were doing. So if you're you could imagine a data broker buying the data set from a startup that has their go to market motion that can be RL'd on and then also their code base that can be folded into training on how to write better code and all of their marketing messages and basically everything that they did on internal, external columns, everything is tracked. Maybe they've been using granola or something. They have very detailed notes of everything about how they built the business. Even though it wasn't successful. There's going to be a lot of lessons there that can be folded it into the next training of the next thing. Anyway, in other news. Yes, intel is joining Terrafab. Yes, let's intel is proud to join the Terrafab project with SpaceX, Xai and Tesla to help refactor Silicon Fab technology. Intel says our ability to design, fabricate and package ultra high performance chips at scale will help accelerate terrafab's aim to produce one terawatt a year of compute to power future advances in AI and robotics. And throwing up a post of hanging with Mr. Musk himself. Intel up on the day up almost 3% unsurprisingly and just continues continues to be on a terror up almost 15% in the past month and 167% over the last year. Let's go through the Wall Street Journal's coverage of this. Elon Musk is partnering with intel on his ambitious Tarifab project, which aims to build specifically designed chips for SpaceX and XAI as well as for Tesla. In an announcement Tuesday, intel said it would work with the companies to design, fabricate and package ultra high performance computing chips at scale. The company shared a photo of Chief Executive Lip Bhutan shaking hands with Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla. The partnership is a win for Tesla, which has struggled in recent years. Intel, which has struggled in recent years, leading the company to cut production capacity when demand was surging for data center chips and when competitors like Nvidia and AMD have thrived. That was always a just such a tough pill to swallow. When you would talk to the ASIC companies like Cerebras and you would say like you're doing something new. You're not, you're not doing Nvidia chips. Is there any way you could get off of tsmc and they're like, no, like we still need to be in Taiwan. Obviously there's a huge geopolitical component here, we can get into all that. But last year the Trump administration reached a deal to acquire an equity stake in intel for around $9 billion. To help secure the American chip makers business, the US government held 8.4% of Intel's shares outstanding in as of March 20, according to securities filings. The figure doesn't include warrants that could increase the government's equity stake in Intel. So that as you mentioned, intel shares gained 3% in Tuesday trading. Terrafab represents a step change in how Silicon Logic memory and packaging will get built in the future, Lipoutin said. On x Tesla and SpaceX confirmed the partnership in posts on X In March, Musk unveiled the plans for a single facility in Austin, Texas to make chips to be used by SpaceX and X AI, which merged in February, as well as by the publicly traded Tesla. He pitched the project as an opportunity to quickly experiment on chip design by designing and manufacturing the chips in one facility. The FAB will make chips for use in Tesla's Robotaxis, which they're already fabbing I believe at Samsung, although they do have Nvidia Dojo chips I think that are tsmc. So they've been doing using both of those fabs. But Optimus will also need chips and they are planning to use intel for that as well. So these are two areas of priority for the electrical vehicle maker as it shifts its focus to artificial intelligence enabled products. It will also make chips optimized for use in space, where SpaceX is planning to deploy huge numbers of satellites capable of handling AI computing tasks. Yeah, so who, who else do you think they need to get involved here? Because just the two of these, the two of these guys, you know, intel and Tesla coming together, it's good to have more involvement. But still I think the entire project, we've seen a few of those like AI leader gatherings in D.C. where you see Tim Cook and Sundar and Sam Altman and Dario and all the leaders are Together. And I was always hoping that at one of those dinners they would say, okay, everyone's gonna try and say the biggest number, but this time it's gonna be how much you're committing to intel and how much you'll buy from them if they come online with a competitive product. Because the demand side has always been a big problem for intel, that they have the capability, they have plans to build the 2 nanometer, 3 nanometer plant like a frontier plant, leading edge fabric. But every other company has been so tied to tsmc, but we, I think everyone now acknowledges that TSMC is not investing super heavily in CapEx. They're not going, you know, they're not scaling up as much as the industry would like them to. And so lots of folks have sort of signaled towards a chip bottleneck coming in the next few years. And intel has the opportunity to communicate that. This seems like the first step in that, in that chain. So companies including Tesla often design their own semiconductors but need a supplier to actually make the so called, make them in a so called chip fab. Musk companies have sourced chips from a wide range of suppliers, including Nvidia, Samsung, Taiwan Semiconductor. I got it. Musk said that Terrafab is needed because his company's demand for chips is slated to far outstrip the supply it gets from partners. I was listening to Chuck Robbins from Cisco talk about data centers in space and the heating issue came up and he was like, yeah, I don't really have like a solid answer for that yet. But I do think that if you are bullish on data centers in space, you have to start with the fact that Starlink works in space currently because it is doing compute. It's not possibly put, let's be honest John, we couldn't possibly put a computer up there. Yeah, like there are computers with like they don't, they can't inference frontier models, they can't, you know, it's not gigawatts in space yet, but there are, I believe across the entire Starlink cluster, megawatts of compute in space with solar panels. And they do heat up because you are running a chip that routes packets across the Internet from one satellite to the next to get you your Internet via Starlink. And so it's not that it's a solved problem, it's that is that we are actually, we are on a path to, you know, deploy some level of compute in space. Tyler. Yeah, I mean we, we've seen like Philip Johnson, like there are chips in space right now, like there are GPUs I think aren't there? He said there were like 5 or 6h1 hundreds, right? Yeah, yeah. So like they do work. It's like. Yeah, I think most people's problem with space data centers is that it's like economically doesn't make any sense. Well, so yes, that is the correct angle, but a lot of people are that it's like, no, no. There is a whole conversation about like, like it is impossible and you need to like move past that into the economic equation, which then gets you into timelines and actually thinking about what needs to happen to dissipate that heat. But clearly, yes, you can. I mean you can put humans in space on the ISS and cool that we have created ways to move heat around in space for decades. It's obviously a new challenge, but I think starting with the baseline of like there is compute happening in space right now, we're going to try and I mean Elon wants to like 1000 exit, hundred thousand exit, million exit. I don't even know what the scale is, but orders of magnitude. And so there's new engineering challenges. At the very least it's, it's worth, it's worth acknowledging that there is computation happening in space at scale with the Starlink cluster. Anyway, speaking of space, looks like Elon is going to use SPC X as ticker for the SpaceX IPO, which he had to acquire from Matt tuttle, hence the ETF's ticker change shown below. Eric from Bloomberg says we predicted this could happen in a December Note. Nice catch by Will, who famously gave the meta ticker to Zuck. I did not know that Will Hershey had the meta ticker previously. So we know somebody that spots on who had the meta ticker, a guy named Will Hershey. Oh, interesting. There's a company called Roundhill, but we know somebody who's Matt Ball. We had somebody here come in outside of show hours and say that they were squatting on a bunch of tickers and the idea seems. So I think what might be the reality is that you actually, it needs to be, it needs to be further along than just reserved. I don't know. I think so having it, you can go, if you're a startup today, you can go reserve your ticker today. But I'm not sure that actually gives you enough leverage to when, when Elon comes knocking, ready for an ipo, you actually have priority over. I think you have to actually be doing something with it. So if I have it correct, I'm looking it up to make sure that I have the facts straight. But the Matthew Ball started an ETF based on the Metaverse, which was. He wrote a whole book about the Metaverse and had a series of blog posts outlining the broad trend and the various companies that would benefit from that. And so ticker squatting. Ticker squatting. The team does not like. Oh, okay. Roundhill squats on lots of tickers. That's interesting. I don't know. Apparently metamaterials was in that ticker for a little bit. There's been a few others, but I. Roundhill creates ETFs. ETFs. Well, I think if you have an active ETF, that's a lot different than just having a reservation. Although, I don't know, maybe you do get paid off. But so this fund, it was only like $10 million. So it's very small. So you actually could, like. Yeah, Yeah. I mean, $10 million is still like, you know, not. You know, it's still a fair amount, but you could potentially launch an ETF with 10 million of. Yeah, like. Like, if you have a really good ticker. Yeah, you know, you could. You can definitely make an argument that, like, yeah, it's worth over $10 million, and you can somehow marshal enough capital to. To do something with it. There was a YouTube influencer who launched an ETF, and it sounded so good on paper because it was like, wow, his audience came together and put $10 million into this ETF, but it was generating something like three basis points of fees or something. So regardless of how it was, like, regardless of what the fund did, like, the actual flow would be, like, less than what he was earning in YouTube ad revenue. Like, a few thousand dollars a month would be, like, the net gain from the. From the ETF effort. And I think it was something that got wound down pretty quickly. Anyway, I had a broader take on Elon and Intel. So back in 2022, I was trying to imagine this divergent path, the road not traveled, of Elon buying Intel because Intel. Yeah, we talked about this before, that there was a moment where people were tracking, like, Intel's corporate jet. Yeah, Elon and Global Foundries, too. But. Yeah, yeah, and it seemed. But I think it ultimately ended up just being election related. Yeah, yeah, I think so. Yeah. They happened to be at Mar a Lago, maybe at the same time. But it was. It was such a cool idea because Elon had, you know, I mean, he'd run PayPal and stuff. He had some experience in, like, software, but he hadn't run a social network. So there was A lot of, there was a lot of questions about like, what would happen to Twitter, Would he be able, would he need to change the business model. He wound up doing subscriptions. It wound up being a good exit because he rolled it into Xai, which rolled into SpaceX. So everyone did fine. But there was a lot of like, okay, $44 billion for Twitter, which after the ZIRP era ended, all of those companies traded down 60% or something. So there was a lot of chatter around, is, is this a good deal? Is this a good use of his time? He's known for running incredibly intense engineering operations, making self driving electric cars, rockets that land themselves. Like, like semiconductor fab. Feels more like that than social network. Feels like rocket factory. Right. It is a factory at the end of the day. And so I was trying to work backwards from like, could that actually have happened? I don't know. The numbers I had was, were. So at the end of 2022, intel was a $110 billion market cap company. Like that' huge company still, even though it had been beaten up in the public markets. But Elon had just put together 44 billion to buy Twitter. And the Chips act had put in 2022, had just put together 280 billion, including 53 billion specifically for U.S. semiconductor manufacturing. Also just think about where intel would trade if Elon had been able to own it or roll it in. I mean it would be like just Putting together the 44 billion was Herculean effort and there was a ton of debt and there were all these different parties. Yeah, just a much, much different business. 110. And it's not like you can just go buy the company at its lowest possible value. You have to make an offer that all the shareholders will approve of and potentially be higher than the, than, than what the market cap is. Because if you're, if you're an intel shareholder and you're looking at $110 billion market cap, you would imagine that it could go up and it did. It's now over what, 200 billion intel market cap. What are they at right now? 260. So like if you were a shareholder in 2022 and you were at 110, you probably are happy that you didn't get bought out at that time. But it was possible. It wasn't that much of a stretch to imagine something happening there. Four years ago we didn't wind up on that path. But you know, my hope is that this is the first step on the long road to generate enough demand for domestic chip manufacturing. To really move the needle because I'm rooting for intel and I'm rooting for American semiconductor supply chain. Tyler went over to the TSMC plant in Arizona. It seems like it's going well. Yeah, it's huge. It's huge. They didn't let me in. They didn't let you in, but we need more very clearly. And intel is working on that, fortunately. All right, we got to talk about a corporate retreat that went badly wrong. Okay. Technology company plex took its 120 employees to Honduras for a week long bonding experience. It was a disaster. From the moment they arrived, senior executives at the tech company Plex were eager to treat their 120 fully remote staffers to a week long corporate getaway in a tropical paradise. Pop quiz. Tyler, do you know what Plex is? I don't know, but no. Have we seen Plex before? I don't know either. So we all failed. But now it's your job to figure it out. I will continue. The plan for the Honduras trip was simple. Company meetings and team building company by powdery, soft beaches during the day and island fun at night. At a cost of roughly half a million to the company. They'd build the trip around a Survivor theme with teams and challenges. But it'd be fun, not too physically grueling. The CEO of Plex, a free streaming platform, would play a role similar to that of Survivor host Jeff. Perhaps the executive should have taken it as a sign that just as the first bus of staffers pulled up to the resort, the chief executive was already in his hotel bathroom experiencing the initial waves of violent stomach infection. What followed was a comedy of errors, including military drills that outpaced anything this group of office workers had in mind. A rogue porcupine, stranded airplanes, and one syringe to the butt of an employee. Corporate retreats are generally assumed to be torture, or at least a semi stressful chore. Or what with their forced fun activities and hybrid workplay environments that leave workers confused about boundaries. Is that like the industry standard? That seems wild. I don't know. I don't think I've ever been on a corporate retreat. I've been on some like founders fund events, but those aren't really retreats. Those are more just like conferences. But I don't know, corporate retreat seems, I don't know, unexplored territory for me. It's no wonder. The new season of Jury Duty, a comedy series that tricks an unsuspecting non actor into believing believing his off the wall fictional circumstances are actually happening, is set At a corporate off site. But in real life, Plexcon 2017 beats anything on TV. Here's the story of an all staff company getaway told by six people who were there. A trip where most everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Nearly a decade later, they're still working together and still talking about. It's crazy that they. It was bonding experience. Yeah, well, yeah, it's crazy that this is now now coming out. So. Sean Ha, 42, founder of Moniker Partners, an independent corporate retreat agency that planned the trip. About three weeks before we arrived in Honduras, we got an email from the hotel's general manager that said, I will be departing. I wish you the best with your retreat. I knew something was off. Three days later, another email. The head chef was no longer going to be at the hotel. Scott, 52, chief product officer and Plex co founder. We get there, we've got to take the bus from the airport. Dirt roads, you start getting closer and there are guard towers around the property, people with machine guns and stuff. A lot of people were like, where are we going? Keith, the CEO of Plex54, we usually go a day early and we set up. If there's any little thing, we have to get it right just so the employees have the best experience possible. Keith woke up the day that people were coming in Sunday morning and he is sick as a dog. Everyone there is fried. Basically. People are telling me, don't eat the vegetables, don't eat the fruits, don't eat the vegetables. That's like the same thing. No, no, no. Because they clean it, they wash it in water. It's usually not filtered water, right? Cause it would just be kind of crazy to. Yeah, yeah, here it is. So I've got to have a salad. Just one salad. So I got E. Coli, which may be the worst thing you could get possibly ever. Just as people were arriving on the buses, I was like, I had lost eight or ten pounds. They had a doctor come to me, which apparently is pretty standard. They nailed an IV bag to the bedpost. Just nailed it. People are arriving for a party that night. The next day is survivor themed kickoff. There's not one person on the planet more excited about Survivor theme. And Keith and his wife, they have watched every single episode. My wife and I met Jeff, the host of Survivor. What I wanted is when everybody shows up, I do it. Jeff, welcome to the island. Here's the theme for the week. But Scott got to do it. The opening Survivor thing was a contest where people on their different teams open up a platter you have to eat what's on the platter. Sean. Sean, who's the plex? Head of business development. Yeah, somebody is. Somebody is cold texting me, pitching me their. Their startup and they've called me a bunch of times today. Wait, is it actually them or is it their AI agent? I wish I could pick up. It's just like a little bit. Yeah, but yeah, cold texting somebody, like getting their number. I don't think that's the new meta. No, it's, it's bold. We heard from an executive in tech that they are getting dozens of emails every single day trying to recruit them. And every email comes from a new Gmail account that's like unregistered, brand new, but it's all like LLM written very different, doesn't really do all the research, but has a few keywords in there and it's clear that someone is, is building sort of like a next gen recruiting agency that's basically just a lot of spam. Feels like the end result will be like a return to relationship building and not like broad top of. I should read the cold text from this morning and I have nothing against cold, cold email and just being bold. But I did read this out loud to you, John, so I'll read to everyone. So I got a text from an unknown number today at 7:00am all right, Jordy, good news or bad news? First this is blank and I'll leave the name out and then I just get a PDF of a deck and then a text. All right, Jordy, the bad news is this was an unplanned introduction and on the surface, probably lukewarm outreach. The good news is that there's zero doubt you're now in touch with the founder with the most grit of anyone you've interacted with the past 12 months and likely anyone you'll interact with over the next 12 months. 50,000 seed round passes over the past 10 months here to make 50,000 in one. So. So you know, you should be coming in being like, I've been passed on 50,000 times. Yeah, I'm hoping this is the one that gets that. Seems like a rough estimate though. Every months of feedback and iterations have made us better. So you're seeing more quality, a more quality presentation than rejection. 10,000. Looking forward to your message. The chat wants the builder to pitch. They want you to hear this out. Everyone's in favor of this. Wait, wait, pitch who? The chat wants you to get on the phone with them. Do it live. I mean, they wanted to do live. I Don't know if you should do live, but you should take the call and get to the bottom of it. I will take the call. I will take the call. But. But let's go back to the corporate retreat. Okay, so they hire a former Navy SEAL to basically haze the team on the beach. And you can pull up a picture, an image here. The quote is, this is not a super fit group in general. One of our biggest mistakes was hiring a former Navy SEAL to pump the team up. As I'm in my room dying, I could hear them out there doing all the drills and yelling. And so I'm in here thinking, this is terrible, but it sounds terrible out there too. We're doing army crawling on the beach. It was 100 degrees. I bailed out partway through. I went into the ocean just to cool off. I went in probably on all fours because I was tired. It's not a fit group. Not a super fit group in general. The ex Navy SEAL is like, we can tone it down, no problem. We get up there and it's hot and humid and people are passing out. I don't think he'd ever seen quite such an unfit group. We ended on, I guess, what's probably a golf course course. On command, everyone had to hit the grass. Everyone's silent. We're pretending we're Navy SEALs, but I happened to land in the wrong spot. I'm just like, oh God, what is happening? I was sitting on a fire ant hill. I was wearing shorts. I jumped and had my hives and bumps from the bites. This is ridiculous. Someone saw an alligator on the golf course. Sounds like a ridiculous. There was a porcupine that fell through one of the ceilings. This is like a fire festival for festival of corporate retreats. It's fun that this porcupine is horrifying. Wow, look at this guy. Rick Phillips discovered this in his room shower. The hotel pretty much just got the porcupine and left. I guess for me it was a good thing because being a non talkative software engineer, I got some notoriety. It's a beautiful resort. There are sand fleas. They had to fumigate every day. What a weird quote. We did a nice dinner down by the beach and everyone got bit by the sand fleas that weren't supposed to be there. We all got matching tank tops. Real life. Real life episode of the Office. Anyway, you can imagine Michael Scott. There is some breaking news. Anthropic is set to preview powerful Mythos model to ward off cyber AI threats. The AI company is partnering with Amazon, Microsoft and others to offer the new model to find and patch software bugs. This is from the Wall Street Journal. Anthropic is taking steps to arm some of the world's biggest technology companies with tools to find and patch bugs in their hardware and software. The company is making a preview of its new AI model called Mythos, available to about 50 companies and organizations that maintain critical infrastructure, including Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, owned Google and the Linux Foundation. Cybersecurity researchers and software makers worry that artificial intelligence becoming so good at exploiting vulnerabilities that it could cause widespread online disruption. Security experts have predicted that AI models will discover an avalanche of software bugs and the effort is set to help companies stay one step ahead of cybercriminals and other threats. This feels like a very good rollout strategy generally, both because we've seen a huge amount of cyber attacks and hacks and accidental releases. Like even if it's not, you know, there's been we had a member of the security team from Crowdstrike on the show last week talking about the rise in cyber attacks broadly and so getting the most frontier models in the hands of big companies early. Great from that perspective and then also just great as a product demo which will get the entire organization excited about deploying the technology broadly. So very good as a B2B go to market motion. This makes a ton of sense when measuring the dollar cost to find a bug. Mythos claims to be about 10 times as efficient as previous AI models. Details of Mythos capabilities were previously reported by Fortune. While Anthropic has no immediate plans to release Mythos, other models will likely match itself its bug finding capabilities within the next few years, Graham said. We basically need to start right now preparing for a world where there is zero lag between discovery and exploitation. So very carefully rolling these out. The Claude Opus 4.6 found more high severity bugs in Firefox in two weeks than the rest of the world typically reports in two months. And so good good news there for cybersecurity. There is some some news yesterday in the New York Times. Shots fired at Indianapolis councilman's home after boat that was backing a data center. No one was injured, but Councilman Ron Gibson called it deeply unsettling. This broke on X yesterday and Alex writes in the New York Times bullet hits. Bullets hit the home of an Indianapolis city councilman early Monday morning, leaving shattered glass and holes through the front door and a handwritten note reading no data center was left under the doormat. The councilman Ron Gibson was among the city's leaders who voted 6:2 last week to approve a rezoning measure that would allow Metro Blocks, a Los Angeles company, to build a data center on the northeast side of Indianapolis. Local residents had protested the proposed data center for months, citing concerns about environmental impacts and changes to a historic neighborhood. Dozens of people filled the City Council chambers, City County Council chambers last week before the vote, holding signs and speaking in opposition to the data center, the station reported. Gunfire at his home crosses a line, Mr. Gibson wrote in an emailed statement. I understand that public service can bring strong opinions and disagreement, but violence is never the answer, especially when it puts families at risk. So very, very dark situation. Mr. Gibson wrote that he and his 8 year old son were awakened by the gunshots between 12:45 and 12:50am Monday and he rushed to reassure his son that he was Safe. He said 13 rounds were fired at his home with bullets striking just steps from the dining room table where his son had played with Legos the day before. Incredibly, incredibly dark, Rune says. Just so everyone is clear this is evil, you were justified in thinking it's morally bad. Tons of apologetics happening for bad people. If you think behavior like this is just desserts for the tech industry due to some hobby horse you have, you've gone insane. And Noah Smith says we may still be underrating how big of a political issue AI is going to be. And there's a video here from cbs. We can, we can put the sound on. Oh yeah. Just days after voting in favor of building a new data center in Indianapolis, local council member Ron Gibson says he woke up to the sound of gunfire overnight. Gibson said 13, 17 rounds were fired at his home while he and his 8 year old son were asleep, some of those bullets landing just steps from their dining room table where his son was playing with Legos the day before. When he stepped outside, he says he found this handwritten note reading no data centers under the doormat. There are real benefits tied to this development. Construction is expected to support roughly 300 jobs over a three year period. While some counselors argued the data center will bring revenue and jobs, there was pushback from residents over environmental and quality of life concerns. The vote to move forward passed six to two. Indianapolis police are calling this an isolated and targeted incident and police have yet to identify a suspect. And one group that protested that data center last week released a statement today saying in part, violence has no place in our community or in our advocacy. The FBI now assisting in the investigation. Tony Chanel, thank you for Noah Hirschkill in the chat says people have Gone insane. It is, it is extremely disheartening to see. I mean, I would hope that the case to be made for data centers is much more complex than 300 jobs over three years. Like the ratepayer protection pledge, the environmental concerns, all of that needs to be addressed and communicated. Not because of this, this is, you know, horrible, but just in general from the, from the public that has pushback and reticence about the data center development. Yeah. Local tax revenues. Yeah. And it should be, it should be a boon to every community. And the, every community should feel like the, the net benefit is truly positive. And I feel like people, many, many community members do not feel like it's in their favor. And so there's a lot to do on that front. In some other more positive news, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google are uniting to cop to combat model copying in China. This is a bigger discussion around AI safety. We've talked about this. You look at that. Some who knew faith in Christ, who knew that you could get along. Yes. I mean, I'm sure people in the chat have seen the New Yorker article where there's just tons and tons of quotes from various AI leaders all upset with Sam Altman. And the inter AI drama has been bubbling up since the dawn of OpenAI. Like OpenAI was started as a reaction to Google and then Anthropic leaves and teams up with Google and then Elon doesn't like Anthropic and then Ilya Sutskever and Mira leave, but they don't join Anthropic. And so there's been so many personalities and so many disputes. I feel like the takeaway is that this is all extremely high stakes. There's a technological, you know, transition happening, a huge amount of money on the table, a huge amount of influence on the table. And so everyone is sort of clamoring for their share and it's creating a lot of, a lot of friction. But my overall takeaway from the, from the New York article was a lot of that had been already reported out. A lot of that was, you know, we sort of knew that there were rivalries and, and a lot of hurt feelings between different members of the AI community and nothing was particularly shocking to me. But if you have more comments, please leave them in the chat. Let's go through this. Pull it up. What's actually going on with this model copying in China? Question. So rivals OpenAI, Anthropic, PBC and Alphabet Inc's Google have been gunned, have begun working together to try and clamp down on Chinese competitors extracting results from cutting edge US artificial intelligence models to gain an edge in the global AI race. The firms are sharing information through the Frontier Model Forum, an industry nonprofit that three tech companies founded with Microsoft in 2023 to detect so called adversarial distillation attempts that violate their terms of service. According to people familiar with the matter, the rare collaboration underscores the severity of a concern raised by US AI companies that some users, especially in China, are creating imitation versions of their products that could undercut them on price and siphon away customers while posing a national security risk. And so I was trying to square this question of distillation and model commoditization with the news that anthropic has reached 30 billion in run rate and has an agreement with Google and Broadcom for multiple gigawatts of TPU capacity. Like clearly there is insatiable demand for frontier tokens. Frontier models, they're incredibly expensive to train. We saw in the Wall Street Journal that these expected training costs from. Yeah, it was training and inference, but it was hundreds of billions of dollars. And so the hope is that you is that you're able to amortize that over at least a couple of years, a long time. Ideally, the shelf life of a model after you train it is pretty limited if you're being commoditized and copied. If you're being distilled, it's even faster. At the same time, just staying on the frontier clearly leads to an incredible ramp in revenue. So is commoditization a real problem? It feels like it's almost just more of a problem from an AI safety perspective because you can't have the geopolitical conversation like what Bernie Sanders is proposing around different labs, working together, potentially pausing or slowing down or just even adding more constraints and reviews before models get released. It's harder to do that if you have a different country that's racing ahead and moving much faster and trying to close that gap. Now, if the model is delayed in America and their whole strategy is to distill the model, well, then they're still three months behind, even if we take three months off in America. So maybe that's not an issue. But it was an interesting, it was an interesting development. So the like, as models get bigger and more powerful, hopefully it becomes easier to track distillation efforts, I would imagine. So what is the canonical example of the distillation question? Was that originally deep seek? Tyler? I mean, I don't know if it's very hard to prove. Right, sure. Because it's like, how do you know you don't. If you just look at the weights, there's no way to really tell. It's just like you just ask the model, you know, who are you? And then it says, I'm Claude. Yeah. It's like, okay, yeah, that's the smoking gun. But that doesn't always happen because you could remove all references to Claude. People were saying when, you know, Deep Seek first, like, came on, everyone's like, oh, wow, this is so good. Yeah. People at OpenAI were saying, like, okay, they've distilled on us. Yeah. But like, was there any, like, proof? Not really. Really. Maybe just like vibes. If you talk to models a lot, you see that they kind of respond similarly. Yeah. Compared to other models. And, and I mean, the smart strategy if you are a distiller lab would be to generate a bunch of tokens from Google Anthropic and OpenAI, mix them together so that maybe every once in a while it says Claude, but only one third of the time because you have a whole bunch of other tokens from other models and it all blends together. So that actually underscores the need for the Frontier model forum and the three companies working together. I do wonder how you like actually combat this, because it seems very hard unless you basically just say the only people that can hit the API are like, trusted enterprises and you have to sign these big contracts before, which I think is there's a good case we made for, for that being like the way forward. I mean, it doesn't seem that crazy to do like varying levels of KYC for varying levels of token spend or enterprise contracts. So if you are. If all of a sudden it's like you're doing meta level inference, well, let's make sure that it's meta. That's actually the one on the other side of that contract and that they're not vending the frontier tokens into another, like reselling them basically in some way. So you need the chain of know your customer. But in theory, you should be able to have, you know, a $200 pro plan that only that does not ever deliver the level of tokens to fully distill the model. And then as someone ramps up on the API and they're spending 5,000amonth, okay, you do a little bit more of a check, then they're spending $100,000, then they're spending $10 million. And once they get up, like every lab must know, okay, to distill this, you probably need to spend $100 million $10 million, whatever the number is, set the KYC threshold there, but it's going to be cut in a third because it's going to happen across all of these labs. So whatever their threshold is for. Okay, it's really time to go and do the proper kyc. You. You sort of need to divide that by three because you have to assume that it's happening across all three. And then it's also probably happening across multiple smaller organizations that are, you know, essentially fronts and are harder to kyc. But I don't know. Let's do a lightning round of timeline posts. Okay, what do you got? Reed Wiseman, he's an astronaut. Yeah, he's on Artemis 2. Yeah. December 7, 2016. He posted at 8:47am Dreamt I was in lunar orbit last night. Been in that post. Vivid dream that wasn't real. Funk all morning. And yesterday he made it real. Wow. I saw this post and I was like, oh, like that's just like some random poster. Like, okay, cool. Like, yeah, like cool story. Like, yeah, anyone can have that dream. I didn't realize that it was actually the almost 10 years. The astronaut who is now on around the moon and making his way back to Earth. There was another cool video from the moon mission. Astronaut Victor Glover discussed what it means for him and the entire Artemis 2 crew to be observing Easter Sunday from space during their historic mission. We should pull this video up. It's on X. It's about a minute long. Let's see if we can play this. I think these observances are important. And as we are so far from Earth and looking at, you know, the beauty of creation, I think that for me, one of the really important personal perspectives that I have up here is I can really see Earth as one thing. And you know, when I read the Bible and I look at all of the amazing things that were done for us who were created in. You have this amazing place, this spaceship. You guys are talking to us because we're in a spaceship really far from Earth. But you're on a spaceship called Earth that was created to give us a place to live in the universe, in the cosmos. Maybe the distance we are from you makes you think what we're doing is special. But we're the same distance from you. And I'm trying to tell you, just trust me, you are special in all of this emptiness. This is a whole bunch of nothing, this thing we call the universe. You have this oasis, this beautiful place that we get to exist together. I think as we go into Easter Sunday Thinking about, you know, all the cultures all around the world, whether you celebrate it or not, whether you believe in God or not. This is an opportunity for us to remember where we are, who we are and that we are the same thing and that we got to get through this together. I love it. Powerful stuff. Great mission Creatine cycle. Having a GF is insane because it's literally unlimited chat with no tokens bent. What did sucks say is three weeks too young to give my baby retatrue tide not trying to raise a fat porky butterball. Yes, it's too young. Be careful up there. Have you seen this image of the Instagram growth guru? This goes viral constantly and normally it's like a reels reaction video but someone took that, this exact message and put it on X and it went mega viral with 130,000 likes. Instagram growth gurus are so funny. He can't use his laptop because he's holding a drink. He can't drink because he has a cigar in his mouth. He can't smoke his cigar because both hands are occupied. I think, I think this is surmountable though. I think you can actually hold the cigar with the martini or something. But it is true. Like peak performative growth guru. Very, very funny. But I'm sure it had its intended purpose. Chase passive insult says that's my mentor you're talking about. He makes multiple eight figures in passive income and only charges $25,000 for a full day Boot camp mastermind to teach me his strategies. Delete this high yield Harry. Dialing into our morning meeting. Morning stocks are down slightly after Trump announced a whole civilization will die tonight. Really dark over on absolutely crazy social today and hoping. Yeah, it's on the COVID of the Journal today. Trump stirs fear in Iran over talk of attack. President says the US military could take out the entire country in one night. President Trump said Monday that the US military could take out the entirety of Iran in one night. And Iranian officials have told mediators now trying to reach a last ditch ceasefire deal that they, that they fear Trump will follow through on a massive attack Tuesday night. So we are, we are continue to hope, hope for a resolution to the geopolitical conflict. It's very, very frustrating and yeah, it would be so much better to refocus on problems at home and opportunities at home. Anyway, moving on. What is pirate wire saying about Citrini? And analyst number three Ryan writes, our newspapers used to put reporters in active war zones. They've stopped, so new media is picking it up. Last week Research firm Citrini put a man in the Strait of Hormuz to figure out what is going on in the oil world. Citrini's quadrilingual employee, referred to only as Analyst 3, packed a bag with 15 grand in cash, some zins and cigars before shooting over to Amman. After managing to to finagle his way onto his speedboat, Analyst 3 reported from the water just 18 miles away from the Iranian coast while smoking a Cuban. In a world where the New York Times is calling NATO the North American Treaty Organization, we've got live financial reporting from Iran. Yeah, this. This was just absolutely an insane story and insane story of you can just do things. Totally. Yeah. I'm talking to Satrini about coming on the show later this week. Obviously he's been working incredibly, credibly hard with his team to report and publish this and turn things into analysis. And there's a whole deep dive that you can read on Citrini and just what a fantastic piece of reporting. Truly unexpected. I didn't think anyone would do this. We were joking about it and they just went and did it. We stopped doing ads, but NASA. NASA's doing ads carrying a torch. Okay, let's see. Is that a number? Yes. Scrub daddy. Yes. That's the viral infomercial product, right? Yes. And then a liquid death as well. Is there a liquid death? This has to be fake, right? The Taco Bell thing. This is a joke. I can't tell. Is the Nutellas in here. There seems to be real Nutella AI generator or something. Yeah, Grok wanted me to tell you it's real. I don't know. It does seem like people are having fun with this, but. Yeah, very, very funny. All right. Andrew Huberman says 93 years and 231 days old and Isil Stin dead hangs for 2 minutes and 52 seconds. That is insane. To set new world record. We tried this this morning. Yeah, we did this this morning. 2 minutes and 52 seconds is truly an eternity. I don't know if that's in the cards for us. Maybe. Maybe we can get there. What is Carpa at five minutes? Something. Yeah, Carpa is at around five minutes. Absolutely insane. Yeah. These numbers don't sound big, but you start hanging and it is absolutely brutal. So congratulations to Ant. Yeah. What a feat. What a feat. Well, we have Riley Walls in the waiting room. Let's bring him into the TV Fin Ultradome. Riley, how you guys doing? Hey, guys. Are you. We are good. Are you where I think you are? Introduce yourselves. Explain where you are.
Well, there is a whole bunch of news to run through. The first story is that Meta employees are apparently token maxing and competing on an internal leaderboard called Clawdonomics for status as a token legend. This is from the information. Over a recent 30 day period, total usage on the dashboard topped 60 trillion tokens. And this sparked a huge debate over how much is Meta actually spending with Anthropic. Of course the other big news is that anthropic just passed 30 billion in run rate revenue with one of the probably the steepest revenue growth chart in human history. Absolutely legendary. Yeah, this chasing status as a token legend reminds me of kind of. Maybe it was a year ago at this point you were saying, will tokens ever become eyeballs the way eyeballs were during the. Yeah, during the era. Yeah. Right. Just optimized for eyeballs. Obviously not every eyeball visit to a website is created equally, but people were optimizing for eyeballs and now, you know, I don't. The reaction to this I think has been generally, at least online, like been, I guess, reassuring. A lot of people are saying Gary Basin says U. Yeah. Marty says Goodhart's Law. When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Who knows what's actually going on internally. But we do know Zuck is pushing the entire company to be as AI native as possible. And this guy loves spending money too. Right. I have a crazy bull case here that I will run through. Let's get through some of the story first. We got to pull up this comic from XKCD in the comments here. When a metric becomes a target, it ceases to be a good metric. It's right under the leading post. There we go. And the other counterparty says, sounds bad. Let's offer a bonus to anyone who identifies a metric that has become a target. It is good. I don't think that's what's going on here. Lighter was texting a friend at Meta and sent the post. We just discussed on token maxing and said true. And the person said yes. It's pretty sad. But I mean imagine Meta has been. There's been rumors of Meta layoffs for a while now. Sure. Unclear how many, if any, if any have happened. But if you're sitting there, the company, Zuck is saying like we need to get AI native. Boss is saying we need to get AI native. And then suddenly there's a token leaderboard. Yeah. You do not want to be at the bottom of the list. I will say that. Right? Yeah.
Working on that, fortunately. All right, we got to talk about a corporate retreat that went badly wrong. Okay. Technology company plex took its 120 employees to Honduras for a week long bonding experience. It was a disaster. From the moment they arrived, senior executives at the tech company Plex were eager to treat their 120 fully remote staffers to a week long corporate getaway in a tropical paradise. Pop quiz, Tyler. Do you know what Plex is? I don't know about? No. Have we seen Plex? I don't know either. So we all failed, but now it's your job to figure it out. I will continue. The plan for the Honduras trip was simple. Company meetings and team building company by powdery soft beaches during the day and island fun at night. At a cost of roughly half a million to the company. They'd build the trip around a Survivor theme with teams and challenges. But it'd be fun, not too physically grueling. The CEO of Plex, a free streaming platform, would play a role similar to that of Survivor host Jeff. Perhaps the executive should have taken it as a sign that just as the first bus of staffers pulled up to the resort, the chief executive was already in his hotel bathroom experiencing the initial waves of violent stomach infection. What followed was a comedy of errors, including military drills that outpaced anything this group of office workers had in mind. A rogue porcupine, stranded airplanes, and one syringe to the butt of an employee. Corporate retreats are generally assumed to be torture or at least a semi stressful chore, what with their forced fun activities and hybrid workplay environments that leave workers confused about boundaries. Is that like the industry standard? That seems wild. I don't know. I don't think I've ever been on a corporate retreat. I've been on some like founders fund events, but those aren't really retreats. Those are more just like conferences. But I don't know. Corporate retreat seems, I don't know, unexplored territory for me. It's no wonder. The new season of Jury Duty, a comedy series that tricks an unsuspecting non actor into believing his off the wall fict circumstances are actually happening, is set at a corporate off site. But in real life, Plexcon 2017 beats anything on TV. Here's the story of an all staff company getaway told by six people who were there. A trip where most everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Nearly a decade later, they're still working together, still talking about it was bonding experience. Well, yeah, it's crazy that this is now Coming out. So, Sean Ha, 42, founder of Moniker Partners, an independent corporate retreat agency that planned the trip about three weeks before. Before we arrived in Honduras, we got an email from the hotel's general manager that said, I will be departing. I wish you the best with your retreat. I knew something was off. Three days later, another email. The head chef was no longer going to be at the hotel. Scott, 52, chief product officer and Plex co founder we get there, we've got to take the bus from the airport. Dirt roads, you start getting closer, and there are guard towers around the property. People with machine guns and stuff. A lot of people were like, where are we going? Keith, the CEO of Plex54, we usually go a day early and we set up. If there's any little thing, we have to get it right just so the employees have the best experience possible. Keith woke up the day that people were coming in Sunday morning, and he is sick as a dog. Everyone there is fried. Basically. People are telling me, don't eat the vegetables, don't eat the fruits, don't eat the vegetables. That's like the same thing. No, no, no. Because they clean it. They wash it in water. It's usually not filtered water. Right. Because it would just be kind of crazy to. Yeah, yeah, here it is. So I've got to have a salad. Just one salad. So I got E. Coli, which may worst thing you could get possibly ever. Just as people were arriving on the buses, I was like, I had lost eight or ten pounds. They had a doctor come to me, which apparently is pretty standard. They nailed an IV bag to the bedpost. Just nailed it. People are arriving for a party that night. The next day is Survivor theme kickoff. There's not one person on the planet more excited about Survivor than Keith and his wife. They have watched every single episode. My wife and I met Jeff, the host of Survivor. What what I wanted is when everybody shows up, I do it. Jeff, welcome to the island. Here's the theme for the week, but Scott got to do it. The opening Survivor thing was a contest where people on their different teams open up a platter. You have to eat what's on the platter. Sean. Sean, who's the Plex head of business development? Yeah. Somebody is cold texting me, pitching me their startup, and they've called me a bunch of times today. Is it actually them or is it their AI agents? I wish I could pick up. It's just like a little bit too much to. But yeah, cold texting somebody, like, getting their number. I don't Think that's the new meta? No, it's bold. We heard from an executive in tech that they are getting dozens of emails every single day trying to recruit them. And every email comes from a new Gmail account that's like unregistered, brand new, but it's all like LLM, written very different, doesn't really do all the research, but has a few keywords in there. And it's clear that someone is building sort of like a next gen recruiting agency that's basically just a lot of spam. Feels like the end result will be a return to relationship building and not broad top of. I should read the cold. The cold text from this morning and I have nothing against, nothing against cold, cold email and just, you know, being. Being bold. But I did read this out loud to you, John, so I'll read it to everyone. So I got a text from an unknown number today at 7:00am all right, Jordy, good news or bad news? First, this is blank and I'll leave the name out and then I just get a PDF of a deck and then a text. All right, Jordy, the bad news is this was an unplanned introduction and on the surface, probably lukewarm outreach. The good news is that there's zero doubt you're now in touch with the founder with the most grit of anyone you've interacted with the past 12 months and likely anyone you'll interact with over the next 12 months. 50,000 seed round passes over the past 10 months here to make 50,000 in one. So you should be coming in being like, I've been passed on 50,000 times. I'm hoping this is the one that gets through, that gets there. That seems like a rough estimate though. Months of feedback and iterations have made us better. So you're seeing more quality, more quality presentation than rejection. 10,000. Looking forward to your message. The chat wants the builder to pitch. They want you to hear this out. Everyone's in favor of this. Wait, wait, pitch who? The chat wants you to get on the phone with them. Do it live. I mean, they wanted to do live. I don't know if you should do live, but you should take the call and get to the bottom of it. I will take the call. I will take the call. But let's go back to the corporate retreat. Okay, so they hire a former Navy SEAL to basically haze the team on the beach. And you can pull up a picture, an image here. The quote is, this is not a super fit group. In general, one of our biggest mistakes was hiring a Former Navy SEAL to pump the team up. As I'm in my room dying, I could hear them out there doing all the drills and yelling. And so I'm in here thinking, this is terrible, but it sounds terrible out there too. We're doing army crawling on the beach. It was 100 degrees. I bailed out part way through. I went into the ocean just to cool off. I went in probably on all fours because I was tired. There's not a fit group, not a super fit group in general. The ex Navy SEAL is like, we can tone it down, no problem. We get up there and it's hot and humid and people are passing out. I don't think he'd ever seen quite such an unfit group. We ended on, I guess, what's probably a golf course. On command, everyone had to hit the grass. Everyone's silent. We're pretending we're Navy SEALs. But I happened to land in the wrong spot. I'm just like, oh God, what is happening? I was sitting on a fire ant hill. I was wearing shorts. I jumped and had hives and bumps from the bites. This is ridiculous. Someone saw an alligator on the golf course. Sounds like a ridiculous. There was a porcupine that fell through one of the ceilings. This is like a fire festival for corporate retreats. Festival of corporate retreats. It's fun that. This porcupine is horrifying. Wow, look at this guy. Rick Phillips discovered this in his room shower. The hotel got. Pretty much just got the porcupine and left. I guess for me it was a good thing because being a non talkative software engineer, I got some notoriety. It's a beautiful resort. There are sand fleas. They had to fumigate every day. What a weird quote. We did a nice dinner down by the beach and everyone got bit by the sand fleas that weren't supposed to be there. We all got matching tank tops. Real life. Real life Episode of.
And train some model on your infrastructure? Do you have to pull out the tokens that were revised by the AI lab that you don't have the right to train on? It's all very interesting. Apparently startups that have gone out of business are able to sell their corporate histories for something like a million dollars to data brokerage firms and AI labs now. Have you heard about this? Yeah. Heard about it. Skeptical. I'm skeptical. I'm skeptical. I mean, I mean certainly there is a market for, for it, but basically all the code that a company built over a few years, maybe they raised code, but also usage within different enterprises, all sorts of different stuff, basically like an RL environment or something that can help whatever business process they were doing. You could imagine a data broker buying the data set from a startup that has their go to market motion that can be RL'd on and then also their code base that can be folded into training on how to write better code and all of their marketing messages and basically everything that they did on internal, external columns, everything is tracked. Maybe they've been using granola or something. They have very detailed notes of everything about how they built the business even though it wasn't successful. There's going to be a lot of lessons there that can be folded into the next train run of the next thing anyway. In other news, intel is joining Terra.
Yeah, I don't really have like a solid answer for that yet. But I do think that if you are bullish on data centers in space, you have to start with the fact that Starlink works in space currently because it is doing compute. It's not, you couldn't possibly put, let's be honest, John, we couldn't possibly put a computer up there. Yeah, there are computers with like, they don't, they can't inference frontier models. They can't, you know, it's not gigawatts in space yet, but there are, I believe across the entire Starlink cluster, megawatts of compute in space with solar panels. And they do heat up because you are running a chip that routes packets across the Internet from one satellite to the next to get you your Internet via Starlink. And so it's not that it's a solved problem, it's that is that we are actually, we are on a path to, you know, deploy some level of compute in space. Tyler? Yeah, I mean we, we've seen like Philip Johnson, like there are chips in space right now, like there are GPUs. I think he said there were like five or six H1 hundreds, right? Yeah, yeah. So like they do work. It's like. Yeah, I think most people's problem with space data centers is that it's like economically it doesn't make any sense. Well, so yes, that is the correct angle, but a lot of people are not that it's like physically, but no, no, there is a whole conversation about like, like it is impossible and you need to like move past that into the economic equation, which then gets you into timelines and actually thinking about what needs to happen to dissipate that heat. But clearly, yes, you can, I mean you can put humans in space on the ISS and cool that we have created ways to move heat around in space for decades. It's obviously a new challenge, but I think starting with the baseline of like, there is compute happening in space right now, we're going to try and I mean, Elon wants to like thousand exit, hundred thousand exit. Million exit. I don't even know what the scale is, but orders of magnitude. And so there's new engineering challenges, but at the very least it's worth acknowledging that there is computation happening in space at scale with the Starlink cluster anyway.
Using like a Saturday. Yeah, like multiplying that, right? Sure. But the bigger question is like a lot of people, you know, John Chu there is saying that, you know, oh, this is like a bad metric. And maybe it is, but I think it makes clearer the strategy with Meta Superintelligence Lab. Because if you're looking at, you know, it's clear that they're spending hundreds of millions of dollars on this just for internal code gen tooling, like running their business, they are going to spend an inordinate amount of money on frontier inference. And so training a model there, they will be able to amortize the training cost of the next model that they build. Not just over can they get a product out that goes viral and becomes its own standalone chat app that people pay for. Or maybe it's ad supported, like just on the internal usage. They could be running a multi billion dollar token bill that they would have to pay another lab. And so if they develop that internally, it's pure vertical integration. And then you also have everything that's happening on the actual ad targeting and content delivery side. And when you add up all of those, all of a sudden the big question has been like, is Meta going to be able to launch an entirely new AI product like Vibes or something like that? And this is a data point that to me says they don't need to because just from a pure vertical integration story, the investment in MSL can pencil out. Are you already laughing? I just want you to get to your schizo theory. What's the schizo theory? That this whole token maxing thing is like a barrage while they distill the model. Oh, oh, yeah, yeah. I mean there is a world where if you're.
Of AI, the ads are getting better targeting, they're seeing they're delivering more ads, and the quarterly earnings have been strong. The headline number here that sort of took everyone by surprise is that Meta's staff used. This is from the information Meta's. The story claims that meta staff used 60.2 trillion tokens over 30 days, which would pencil out to about a third of Anthropic's ARR was the number that was thrown out. But both of these claims are pretty questionable. And so Tyler did some back of the envelope math to show that the 1/3 revenue estimate is way, way too high. And I don't know, do you want to take us through some of the reasoning there and then we can talk about the knock on effects of all this? Yeah. Okay, so 60.2 trillion tokens is the number. Like we can just assume that's true. So basically I'm going to assume that all the employees are basically just using Opus 4.6. So then there's basically three numbers you need to look for in like the API cost. So there's like input, there's cached input, and then there's output. Sure. So for Opus 4.6, it's $5 per million tokens on input. It's $0.50 per million tokens on input cached, and then it's $25 on output. Yeah. So if you multiply that 60.2 trillion tokens at the highest possible rate, $25 per million tokens, then you do get like a billion dollars. Yes. Which is crazy. That's not what's happening. Crazy number. But you have to think about it like, you know, if you're using like Claude code or any of these coding agents, you know, the vast, vast majority of the of the tokens used is input. Yeah, because like, so imagine you're working on some, you know, coding file, right? Yeah. There's a thousand lines of code in the file. Maybe the model's only changing like 10 at most. Right. So that's a very small percentage. So the output tokens are going to be, you know, a very small percentage of the total tokens going in, right? Yeah. So OpenRouter publishes like a lot of this data, so you can kind of use those ratios to figure out what is actually like what are the actual numbers of the input versus cache versus output. Yep. So just to get sort of like market standard averages, like baseline benchmarks. Now Meta could be using these tools differently, but if we are to assume that the shape of their agent decoding efforts are similar to the average this is what the numbers look like. So maybe there is like some, you know, bad incentive where people are just saying to the model, like, count up to a billion and then do it again. So then it's like totally skewed. But if they're doing it relatively normally. Yeah. So on Open router, it's about 98.9% of all tokens are input input, and that's including cached ones. Right. Because you're stuffing the context window with all your code base or a huge amount of context. What's going on that's not changing every time. So you can cache it. Yep, yep. So that's like 1.1% is output. Yep. So basically, if you basically get all the numbers, that means like the kind of mean token, the mean million tokens is going to be $2 and like around 26 cents. So that'll get you to something like $136 million a month for the 60 trillion tokens. Right. So that's like way less than the 900. Yep. So that, that would be 1.6 billion a year, like run rate still huge. That's a lot. But that is still in the max. Yeah, that's like I'll take. Assuming they're in the top. Yeah, that's assuming that Open Router, the kind of breakdown of how they're using the tokens is the same as Open Router, which I think it's not. But if we assume that that's like 40 $500 per engineer. If there are I think 30,000 engineers at Meta. Yeah. Every month, 40, $500 on tokens, $4,500. That's actually in line with what I've heard a lot of other people spending in terms of their token budgets. Yeah. That's not like absurd abs, trying to incentivize people to use them. Yeah, yeah. No, not at all. But so. So you can actually see the breakdown on OpenRider of how people are using tokens. So 17. The biggest plurality is Open Claw, which is 17.6%. Yeah. And then Claude Code is 16.8. Sure. So I think if you think about Claude code, you would imagine that like in cloud code, there's the kind of percentage of cash tokens is going to be higher than in Open Claw. Yeah. So I think Meta's usage is actually going to be more heavily based on the cash tokens. Sure. So if you do it just based off like Claude code usage, you'd actually see a higher percentage of the input tokens of the total tokens. So it's only like, 0.8% is the output. So then if you get all those numbers through again, it's only like 55 million a month, which would be 669 million a year, and each engineer would be like, $1,800. Yeah, that's actually pretty low, which is, like, I think, very reasonable, John Chew.
To an. Yeah. What a feat. What a feat. Well, we have Riley Walls in the waiting room. Let's bring him into the TVP ultra dome. Riley. How you guys doing? Hey, guys. Are you. We are good. Are you where I think you are? Introduce yourselves. Explain where you are. We are at the alley. We're live at the alley. Live at the Alley. This is. This is the street right here. Yeah, life is good. This is my friend Patrick. We worked on the alley together. Yeah, this has been a really fun project. We. Yeah, it's been a blast. Give us the full history of the alley, how you guys came to own it, and then we'll get into this project. Basically, we learned that this alley was foreclosed on. It's kind of a long story where this woman accidentally bought it, thinking that she was buying this house right here, which is. No, it is this one. Oh, it is. Which is worth, like, a million dollars. She bid 25k on it, thinking that she was getting the steal of a lifetime. She won. And is this the kind of thing she didn't. She didn't want to tell anyone, like, because she was like, okay, this is, like, probably thought it was too good to be true, but then, like, maybe it was real. So she didn't want to tell anyone if she. Apparently she knocked on the doors because this is an apartment building, and she knocked on the doors and told the tenant she was not raising the rent. So she was. She really thought she owned this, and then she realized she didn't, and then there was a whole new story about her mistake. And then we. We eventually reached out to her and negotiated for a little while, and we bought it for a little more than she actually bought it for. So she got bailed out, and we were able to do a nice thing and still do this crazy project. So did you find this alley from the news article? Is that how this all started? Yeah, we. We had the. Patrick and our friend Theo and I, the three of us, we had been talking for, like, a while before that about buying a different alley in San Francisco, but we couldn't end up buying that one. But we saw this news store. We were like, oh, this is perfect. And we tried to email her to get us the offer, but Riley had to send a letter in the mail. And she got the letter physically? Yeah. Physical sale mail works okay. So it transfers to you. You own it. And then what rights are you entitled to? Because clearly, it's not.
To send a letter in the mail? Physically, yeah. Physical sale mail works. Okay. So it transfers to you. You own it. And then what rights are you entitled to? Because clearly it's not the house next door, but you own something. What exactly do you own? We spent a good amount of time with lawyers to figure out what actually is allowed. There's actually a car driving right at us right now. We move out of the way. If you need to move, you can. You can show us wherever. What neighborhood is this, by the way? This is in the Sunset, which is like 24th and Kirkham. Yeah, 24th and Kirkham. Okay. Sort of middle Sunset. Live. Live on air. There's a car coming. Car coming down the alley. Okay, so it's a. So this is actually. This is actually a great question because we. We. Yeah, live demo here. We. So we. We legally can't block the alley, so we are obliged to move. That is actually in tandem with the question you guys just asked. Yeah, we can't block it. Cars have the right to drive down it because there's easements here. But we do have the right to paint anything on the surface of the street. And we also can give the alley a name. So. Yeah. Is there already a sign? Does the alley have a name? Has it historically had a name? No. So Google Maps calls it Dirt Alley. We think that some editor randomly added that a couple years ago, but it's nowhere else. Okay. It says that name. No official name. And then is there any square footage that anyone could build on, or is it just the actual road? It's just the road. Yeah. It's literally like 8ft wide and nothing else. So. So do you have the signs put up? The signs and the aura of, you know, if you become the owner of this. Of having an alley named after you in the great city of San Francisco? Yeah. So, yeah, take us through the process to actually auction this. Set up the website, draw, demand. How did all this play out?
But in real life, Plexcon 2017 beats anything on TV. Here's the story of an all staff company getaway told by six people who were there. A trip where most everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Nearly a decade later, they're still working together, still talking about. It's crazy that they. It was bonding experience. Well, yeah, it's crazy that this is now now coming out. So. Sean Hoff, 42, founder of Moniker Partners, an independent corporate retreat agency that planned the trip. About three weeks before we arrived in Honduras, we got an email from the hotel's general manager that I will be departing. I wish you the best with your retreat. I knew something was off. Three days later, another email. The head chef was no longer going to be at the hotel. Scott, 52, chief product officer and Plex co founder we get there, we've got to take the bus from the airport. Dirt roads, you start getting closer and there are guard towers around the property, people with machine guns and stuff. A lot of people were like, where are we going? Keith, the CEO of Plaques 54 we usually go a day early and we set up. If there's any little thing, we have to get it right. Just so the employee.
Five code. We are experts. Founder. Five coded. I see multiple journalists on the horizon. Standby. Uav online. Glaze. Double glaze. Triple glaze. Double kill. Bico.