NEWSMAX

You got to give him. 1.75. Okay, can we. Can we pull up the screenshot? Yes. Is this because the other, the other. Debate. The other debate was just around the actual size of the pints? Yes. Is there some of them? They. Look like full pint glasses. So. So it. Yeah, if you go to. Those look like full size pint glasses. Another. Another photo of Elon holding the pint. Yes. Three down. You gotta pull that, pull that up. Tyler, put. It in the production. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no, it's here. This is really important. Yeah, you see this and. It'S like, okay, that looks. Pretty small in his hands. And then. And then let's click over to Timothee Chalamet. Timothee Chalamet. I mean, he's a smaller person, but it looks the same size to me. I think these are fair pint glasses. I think these are accurate. I'm not seeing anything. That's so. Timothy Chalamet is 5 10, Yvonne is 6 2. So slight height difference, but I mean, I don't. I feel like. Yeah, Elon. Is really mauling that. Maybe. Yeah, I think, I think they're just potentially wider. I think they. And this is. The kind of hard hitting analysis that you can really only get on this show. No other, no other technology media is really breaking down. I'm going pint analysis. I'm going normal sized pints on this. But it is, it is an interesting optical illusion. Yeah, this one looks incredible. It's a little bit of. An optical illusion. It's close, it's close. I mean, either way. I know, but we don't know. Even if it's a half pint. John drank four, so that's two full pints. Even if it's a half pint, you know, I think these are full pint glasses. I'm going full Pinterest.

So the merchants basically said, hey, you know what? We will pay your interest. Cool. I want to get right talk about fintech broadly. It's been an absolutely wild week in the markets. I think everybody's been looking at PayPal just wondering how can a business with this kind of user base this much. Effects you, you know, licenses heavily regulated. All these different things. It doesn't obviously there's management component to. It, last thing you'd vibe code. And yet it feels like it's part of that software SaaS apocalypse. But how have you been processing sort of like the AI craziness narrative? It feels like we were saying, like maybe people are giving a little bit too much credit to the AI labs as disruptors. But how have you been processing it? I don't know if. If I would throw the PayPal baby with the AI bathwater. Yeah, if you will. I think the. It is always very dangerous to comment on what the market's really saying. Market's not human. It all sorts of things, but short term, it's a voting machine. So I think the PayPal thing is really not a commentary on software is cheap, software is free. Like if you look at the strategy of the outgoing CEO, who I know pretty well and respect greatly, he's a real bonafide product guy and I should go one since I think myself one of those. His strategy was very much build more software, expand the footprint of PayPal into all kinds of really interesting directions. And so if, and obviously I was not even a little bit privy to any decisions taking place or why did they choose to change management. But if the company believed that software is better, cheaper, easier to build, they wouldn't have changed horses because the previous guy was absolutely beating the drum of let's build software. I don't know why and what they'll do next, but I do agree with you as it is my first child, you're a little bit sad. But I do compete with it now with my second child. So bad. Yeah, I guess. I guess. What do you. So there's a lot of AI opportunity with.

Inflation adjustment here. The Apollo program cost something like 25 billion. Yeah. Also putting it into perspective, France announced an initiative earlier this week. They want to lead in AI research. So through their France 2030 program, they have invested more than 30 million euros in this initiative. Uh, Macron says science has found its home. And Sean Frank says France is investing 30 million in this new AI initiative. That's how much Google will spend in 90 minutes. No joke. Every 90 minutes. Google will spend 30 million on CapEx this year. One company. Wow. One company. They can hire Ilya for like, an hour. An hour. One hour. Consulting call. Yeah. He's got to get on, get an intro. Hit up Brad. Vibe co. Where? D2C Brands, B2B startups and AI companies at.

First of all, ideally they don't use it at all. A lot of disagreement in the timeline. But do you understand what I'm saying? If you were a human or robot, artificial general robotics, would you use tools or reinvent tools? The answer obviously is to use tools. And so now do the digital version of that. If you were a artificial general intelligence, would you use the tools like ServiceNow and SAP and cadence and Synopsis, or would you reinvent a calculator? Of course you would just use a calculator. Okay, Tyler. Okay, I'd like. Completely disagree. So, like, if you're. Yeah. If you're robot, you'll use the calculator, right? Like, you'll just build the calculator if it costs you a lot of money to use the calculator. Yes, yes. So, like, I think, like, you know, digital that, like, agents will, like use Salesforce. Right. But if Salesforce becomes like very expensive, if it's. It's already fairly expensive. Yes, It's. At some point it becomes cheaper to just build it themselves and then you run. Yes, yes. Yeah. Especially when they're like, I can work the equivalent of 2,000 lifetimes today. Yeah, yeah. Like, obviously there's use for tools. Right? Yeah. OpenAI doesn't, like, will write out Python script to run some big math problem. Right. It's not going to use tokens to. At some point, if a single prompt can say, build me a clone of this software and re platform me and onboard all my customers and employees to the new vibe coded version of the software and maintain it for free. Yeah, you have a problem. But as long as the cost to re. Implement the software and re platform and. Transition over John Palmer in the X chat and Deepak in the YouTube chat, say, would you watch TPPN or reinvent it? Would you invent a new podcast or listen to a podcast? Kanner in the chat was talking about trains. The indomitable will of trains or the unstoppable force of trains. Just being extremely bullish on trains. I don't know. Just trains. It was just like a very random train anecdote. Yeah. I just like that there was a hype train for trains in the chat. Schmozbe says, you met me at a rather illiquid period of my life. It's rough out there. Yeah. I mean, going back to Jensen. It'S. In Jensen's interest for the economy, for the markets not to collapse. Even if he doesn't necessarily believe this. Even if Tyler's take is right. Yeah. It's all a matter of timelines, I think. Yeah, like the models are expensive to actually go and reimplement something very, very large and re platform when the current thing is working. Do you see?

And then the FDA did issue a warning letter to himss back in the fall when the shortage ended, telling them to stop mass compounding. So they have commented on this before, but their level of enforcement has been lacking. I think the stark difference with what happened yesterday is that the Wegovy pill has a specific technology called SNAC that they actually paid $2 billion for the IP specifically for that technology to allow for you to be able to actually absorb the peptide and have the drug be effective. And hims explicitly I say that they didn't use that technology and said they're using liposomal absorption, which maybe works, maybe it doesn't, but there's certainly not. Well, then it's just like insane. You're insane. You're selling a drug that you claim works, that has no approval. Approval testing. Right. There's zero studies, zero approval. So this is where it's super different from the injectables, where they weren't changing the formulation. Right. It was very similar to the branded drug. We can talk about the challenges of IP and a bunch of things, but it's different in the sense that here there's no evidence that this drug works at all. And so the most likely scenario is they're selling a, you know, a $50 drug that doesn't work, that still has a bunch of side effects because it still has the drug that just doesn't get absorbed through your gi. So it's, it's, it's very different. It's not an IP issue. It's really an efficacy and safety issue, which is why I think you saw the FDA come out much faster in a much more explicit way pretty immediately after the launch yesterday. Why would himss do something that seems completely nonsensical and bad for patients? And bad. Well, I have a quote here from them. Compounding is a safe, legal and long recognized practice within the American healthcare system. So that's their stance. Okay. But ignoring the fact that they're inventing a new delivery mechanism via liposomal and are selling it as a product, claiming. That'S why they're getting pushback. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think the situation is you have a $5 billion market cap company where half of their revenue is these compounded GLP1s, where that market is quickly contracting on them. They're doing a bunch of buybacks. They've invested a ton in incremental capex. It's like a recipe for disaster. If that revenue starts to fall away and it feels. Do they think the pill, the pill is just going to do is the expectation that the pill is going to effectively eat the injectable market. Because a lot of people would rather take a pill than, you know, have, have to do an injection even if it's once a week. Yeah, I think if you look at the archetype of who I believe to be the HIMS customer, they're buying the injectable because it was the cheapest place to get it. Now you have a branded drug that's half the price of their injectable. I think it's partially the route of administration. I think partially that it's just half the price. And so it's hard to imagine that they're not going to have a significant issue with churn and people switching from the injectable partially because of the ease of use, but also it's just literally half the price which was their entire value. Prop. Novo is not expecting. Are they able to mass produce this already? They have no shortage issues. They've been ramping up production for quite some time. I think they were quite prepared for the launch. And so you have none of the shortage dynamics. And frankly pills are exponentially easier to manufacture than they are injectable pens specifically, which is where the shortages came from. So there's no similar rationale. I think it's also comparatively reasonable that you don't want to force a bunch of patients off the injectable product. So there is a reasonable safety argument that that has to be like a very thoughtful and calculated wind down. I think they're onboarding new customers so it doesn't totally hold water compared to the behavior. But in this instance it feels more like a financial Hail Mary given I think what the market dynamics are going to do to them over year the next.

Becomes to blend into like well Research with Google vs Research with Gemini did the same thing. Y which sort of brings me to I think there's quite, quite a bit of industry pearl clutching around ads and chatbots. Oh my God. I think that's the best thing that's going to happen to this industry. Like everyone is holding their breath around. On the one hand will AI kill software or software eats off or whatever. This is like well will we be able to afford this giant build out so these models can get smarter? Guess what? We make most of the money on the Internet. Not us, but most of the rest of the Internet makes money with ads. And so ads in the single fast growing piece of the Internet wouldn't be such a bad thing for people that need a lot of capital. So I for one welcome the ads and bots so long as clearly delineated ethical considerations, all that stuff. But of course I think, I think it's coming fast and I think so far most people have under predicted the pace of these changes. So I, I'm not going to claim that it's going to be 10% by the end of the year, but it won't shock me. Yeah, that would be sort of my high boundary.

So there's a lot of AI opportunity with a firm. The opportunity one people just understanding more about the financial products that they use in their everyday life and start to choose products that don't have all the fine print. Obviously efficiency in the business is a whole other one. I'm sure that you're getting a lot out of that. But when people ask you about the AI risk to affirm anything on the risk side and then payments companies as well, what is your answer? So I think I have a fairly basic framework. How I think about sort of AI changes everything. It doesn't change that much. Sort of very broad categorization here. If you're in the business of owning cash flow producing assets, or better yet, manufacturing cash flow producing assets, you're probably going to be okay. Like today, if you're making things that create cash flow, you're probably using software. If you're not, you're not doing it right. And so if you are and you're using software making software to create cash flowing assets, it's about to get really, really cheap and much faster and a lot more efficient. And we're certainly taking full advantage of that idea at the firm. And that's what we do. We make cash flow producing assets. They're known as affirm loans. There are about 40 odd million of them made every quarter and growing quickly. It is difficult to roll out of bed and say let's vibe code that because you can vibe code some of the code. But before you get to our scale or our revenue, you have to convince the enormous number of outmarkets partners you need to process on the order tens of billions of dollars of loans. We're not a bank, we're not lending from our own deposits. That means someone downstream is financing these loans. And so those are relationships, not vibe coded. And they can't happen overnight. You can't vibe code a relationship, a real one. You cannot with payments. You have the whole regulatory side too. If you're going in, you're like in your dorm room and you're like, hey, I built PayPal. And you go to say like okay, now I should probably get some money. Transmitter licenses. I expect at some point regulators to say like okay, what is, what does your operation look like? Do you have any compliance experience? And all these things. And so at some point, and then what you're saying is the capital markets is probably even a bigger challenge. Let's say you can somehow get the licenses, the licenses, then are people going to trust you with billions of dollars? Exactly. Another sort of way of cutting the whole AI accelerates everything. Some things are still taking about as long as they can.

Yeah. What is, what's your software buying framework these days? What do you, what do you mean? Like, what do you decide? Like what, when, when you're evaluating, hey, we, there's a job to be done. Or should we, should we go and find a vendor that can do this? Should we do it ourselves? How do you, what's, what's your line? Yeah. Look. I. Know that the cool thing is to say this following. It's like, guys, why would we buy software anymore? Like, you can just vibe code everything. I think anybody who says that generally is not in the business of actually using software in production. Like, it's like build is easy, maintaining and sustaining it. It's hard. I think the short answer is in a world if I can, I much rather buy and build. Right. Like, that's just the reality of it. The, the problem though is you need, you have such unique needs right now. And so if I look at it and see that the gap between what I can get off the shelf. And. What I need is really huge, then I have to look at do I really want to depend on another vendor for kind of being able to like, how business critical is it for me. So as an example, much of the things that we're doing to overhaul field engineering at Databricks to say, how do we use AI to accelerate it? There's nothing off the shelf that gives us what we need there. Right. If there's a piece, I'll use it as a component, but we have to go build it because for me, it's like I'm iterating really, really fast to figure out what the job to be done is, how to deliver it. So we have our own development team. But on other things like my CRM or something like that, that is not something that if I can help it, I'm looking to build internally. Like I'm happy to use something externally given that I imagine my needs are similar to many other ones and there should be things that could meet that needs pretty quickly. Yeah. How big is AI Agent adoption, broadcast.

Factory behind the world's leading AI teams. We got a bunch of breaking news to show out. With breaking news, Hobbit Inspired startup becomes first New bank green lighted 2.0 One of the most insane headlines. That one is for Trevor Palmer and the whole team. Erebor founder Palmer Lucky was one of the tech industry's early Trump supporters and he's known for pension, for Hawaiian insurance. They're really focusing on Palmer's like non banking relationships here. Palmer is a banker now everyone. Erebor will cater to startups and high net worth individuals. On Friday it became the first newly created bank to receive a national charter under the second Trump administration. Launching with $635 million in capital, it says it will occupy a hole in the market left by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The bank is the brainchild of Palmer Luckey, one of the tech industry's earliest supporters of Donald Trump. Its funders include lux Capital, Andreessen Horowitz 8VC, a lot Gill and Founders Fund has lined up a handful of potential defense and industrial tech focused clients, including ones with Tytello and other investors who say they are eager to do business with a bank that understands their needs. You can think of us like a farmer's bank for tech, said Lucky, who will serve on Erebor's board but will not have an operating role. I think most farmers banks won't claim they are the best bankers in the world, but they do understand farmers. Chris Power's in here. He said, is a local bank going to lend against you? No, he said, if you have less than $10 million in revenue and you're struggling to secure a loan from a traditional bank, investor expectations are high. Arabor was valued at about $2 billion in a funding round last year, over seven times its book value, according to investor pitch Deck. A subsequent round valued Erebor at 4 billion. So off to the races. The timeline, the pace from the team getting this done, obviously there's, you know, the regulatory side but there's actually the execution to get here. I remember talking to Trevor last year, Trevor over at Airborne and he was telling me the timeline and I was like, yeah, that sounds great. Like let's see, let's see how it actually turns out. And that, you know, incredible pace. So yeah, we'll have to have Palmer on the show to talk more about it. Real bank. We have another gong hit for Jennifer Garner's Once again.

Products to kind of actually delivering outcomes. We do both. Okay. And then best practices. Pretend I'm CEO of AI Lab who will remain nameless and I'm trying to hire 700, a couple thousand consulting type for deployed sales engineering roles. What are best practices? How fast can you actually spin someone up to become an effective for deployed engineer? What are the pitfalls? Yeah, lots of questions embedded in there. So look, I think first and foremost what you're looking for today for people is they need to do two things. One, they actually have to be able to build hands on. I think you end up in the solution engineer space getting a lot of what I call like the slideware demos. Like hey, I'm a walking dictionary, I can tell you about things I can build a deck. It just doesn't really cut it anymore. So one, there's much more that what people say is come show me rapidly prototype. But they have to be able to build and they have to be able to use AI tools to build otherwise they're going to be slow. The second thing is you can't just go get engineers. They have to be able to talk to customers because like the most important thing is if I go walk to your basically CEO or cio, I have to be able to say what's your business problem? Understand why it matters and decompose that into technical pieces. So you need people who have both of those. So you have to screen from it. It's different than what the, what I would call the traditional solution. Engineering interviews are in terms of how fast to get somebody ramped up. Look, you're hiring smart people generally to get familiar with all the tools. We'd say three months is fast, six months is when they're operating at full steam. It doesn't mean that you can't drop them in front of customers, you know, in the first couple of weeks, but that's the amount of time that they get set. Like where are the most common problems? What's the most efficient way? How do I navigate an organization? And you can hire a lot, but absorbing too many people too fast just means you're also going to candidly degrade culture and skill set.

Now everything's going to change, at least from what we're seeing. Yeah. So talk about your forward deployed engineers, whatever you call them, like implementation, how you like to work with companies. And then I want to compare and understand what it might look like at the labs as they sort of dip their toe into the FDE model. Yeah, look, I think so. I think that there's two things a lot of places when they talk about forward deployed engineers. So this is the cool term right now, I guess to use is this concept that says go to ask people, what is it that you want? What's the outcome that you want to drive? You want to do revenue forecast optimization, you want to do demand forecasting, and then I'll build something for you. The problem is many of the organizations just candidly that talk about that are kind of like, okay, I'll build something custom for you, I'll get it fast. But then the hard part is, is that scalable? Is it open? How does that work? So databricks is probably a little bit different than the rest of them because we've got an actual platform and product that's used by over 20,000 people. But I think right now, when you look at it in the AI world, what works for us at least is we go in and some organizations right now are saying, help me with a specific problem. Like I want to do, you know, let me get my data in order, which is important for AI. Or let me kind of do a migration or let me set this up. And then we have the same set of somebody says, come help me like transform, like Fox News, if you know Fox Cletus, the sport sports app that they have that you can ask questions like that one. They were like, come. Paul. At Fox is a good buddy, I don't know. So. He'S. Like, come build it. Soup to nuts for that. And that was one that we did everything end to end and deliver something that works.

And expert human data label box is the data factory behind the world's leading AI teams. We got a bunch of breaking news show out with breaking news. Hobbit Inspired startup becomes first New bank greenlighted 2.0 One of the most insane headlines. Boom. That one is for Trevor Palmer and the whole team. Erebor founder Palmer Lucky was one of the tech industry's early Trump supporters and he's known for pension for Hawaiian shirts. They're really focusing on Palmer's non banking relationships here. Palmer is a banker now everyone. Erebor will cater to startups and high net worth individuals. On Friday it became the first newly created bank to receive a national charter under the second Trump administration. Launching with $635 million in capital, it says it will occupy a hole in the market left by the collapse of Silicon Valley bank. The bank is the brainchild of Palmer Lucky, one of the tech industry's earliest supporters of Donald Trump. Its funders include lux Capital, Andreessen Horowitz 8 VC Elad Gill and Founders Fund has lined up a handful of potential defense and industrial tech focused clients including ones with Tyill and other investors who say they are eager to do business with a bank that understands their needs. You can think of us like a farmer's bank for tech, said Lucky, who will serve on Arabor's board but will not have an operating role. I think most farmers banks won't claim. They are the best bankers in the. World but but they do understand farmers. Chris Power's in here. He said is a local bank going to lend against you? No, he said if you have less than $10 million in revenue and you're struggling to secure a loan from a traditional bank, investor expectations are high. Erebor was valued at about $2 billion in a funding round last year, over seven times its book value according to investor pitch deck. A subsequent round valued Airborne 4 billion. So off to the races. The timeline, the pace from the team getting this done. Obviously there's you know, the regulatory side but there's actually the execution to get here. I remember talking to Trevor last year, Trevor over at Airbor and he was telling me the timeline. I was like yeah, that sounds great. Like let's see how it actually turns out. And that, you know, incredible pace. So yeah, we'll have to have Palmer on the show. Real to bank more about it. Real bank. We have another gong hit for Jennifer Garner's Once Upon a Farm. Ipoed Today shares popped 17% in public market debut. It's on the New York Stock Exchange. Baby. There we go. Interesting. I wonder how they.

We got a bunch of breaking news breaking the show out with breaking news. Hobbit Inspired startup becomes first New bank greenlighted 2.0 One of the most insane headlines. Boom. That one is for Trevor Palmer and the whole team. Erebor founder Palmer Luckey was one of the tech industry's early Trump supporters and he's known for pension for Hawaiian shirts. They're really focusing on Palmer's like non banking relationships here. Palmer is a banker now everyone. Erebor will cater to startups and high net worth individuals. On Friday, it became the first newly created bank to receive a national charter under the second Trump administration. Launching with $635 million in capital, it says it will occupy a hole in the market left by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The bank is the brainchild of Palmer Luckey, one of the tech industry's earliest supporters of Donald Trump. Its funders include lux Capital, Andreessen Horowitz 8VC, a lot Gill and founders Fund has lined up a handful of potential defense and industrial tech focused clients, including ones with Tyill and other investors who say they are eager to do business with a bank that understands their needs. You can think of us like a farmer's bank for tech, said Lucky, who will serve on Erebor's board but will not have an operating role. I think most farmers banks won't claim they are the best bankers in the world, but they do understand farmers. Chris Power is in here, he said. Is a local bank going to lend against you? No, he said. If you have less than $10 million in revenue and you're struggling to secure a loan from a traditional bank, investor expectations are high. Arabor was valued at about $2 billion in a funding round last year, over seven times its book value, according to investor pitch Deck. A subsequent round valued Arabor at 4 billion. So off to the races. The timeline, the pace from the team getting this done, obviously there's, you know, the regulatory side, but there's actually the execution to get here. I remember talking to Trevor last year, Trevor over at Airbor and he was telling me the timeline. I was like, yeah, that sounds great. Like let's see, let's see how it actually turns out. And that, you know, incredible.

Really beyond a model. Yeah. Oh, this is, by the way, this is my final steaming hot take in Claude code. The reason why you should actually pay attention so much is because this is the first time image models essentially always gain share. Video models always gain share. Like Studio Ghibli moment. And then obviously chatgpt. This is the first new moment. It's a new modality being the agent and it's actually kicking off. Yeah. I mean, how important do you think the Cowork, like a desktop app, mobile functionality is to that? Because like the, like you could have. You can have truly Magic. Chad has some insight. A lot of people using Grok Video to compete for a $1 million content. Oh, that's right. Free money. Free money. Free money. Okay. Yeah. So it's free. Cash and then free money. The top two apps in the top three give you cash. That is a good fact check. Thank you, Chat. But yeah, my question about can you have a Studio Ghibli like moment if you have to open up a terminal just because there are so many normies that just will never open the terminal, no matter how magical the AI God is behind the terminal. It's just too much to go type one line of command. That's why Cowork and Codex are going to probably be what actually happens. I think it's really fun to play around in the whatever 1% adopter and I'm really enjoying it, but I just don't think. Yeah, it's going to be Coworker Codex. And Codex is actually pretty good. Codex is, I think, a slightly more polished experience than Coworker. Yeah. Last question for me.

Hyperscalers reaction was the number two low. Yeah. Bearish. Yeah. They're not taking it seriously. Yeah. 200 billion was crazy. That was crazy to me. Okay. Why? Yeah, that was really shocking. You know, we do a lot of data center tracking and we do a lot of accelerated tracking and we were too up. Okay. Are they trying to play some sort of hype game where they're throwing out the biggest number and. And they're not actually even going to be able to buy enough equipment to spend it, even if they are signaling the market. We're going to be hearing like, well, we wanted to buy this many Nvidia chips, but we couldn't get them. Or we have a delay at this data center because of regulation. And so they're just trying to project strength because they're sort of behind on the AI narrative a little bit. They don't have the big position that Microsoft does in OpenAI. They don't have a DeepMind level team. And so they're saying, we're going to go biggest on the dollar front, but then maybe they don't deliver on it. Or do you think at the end of the year we'll be like, yeah, they spent 200 billion? I think at the end of the year they're going to be like, yeah, they spent 200 billion. Let's go. They are the single biggest provider of power in the entire world. I think, like the incremental and the AWS like supply chain can ramp a lot quicker than anyone else. And every example that we track in the data center, like the data center team, they are on time and can scale to like, levels that are crazy. Yeah. Like, Rainier's ramp is just like, out of this world fast compared everyone else. Every other gigawatt project is essentially delayed and they're gonna be like, ish on time. Wow. So isn't that extremely just like, good for Amazon? Like, they're properly positioned, they're properly transitioning. Like, they. Yeah, like, who knows what happens to the rest of it? Part of it is. But eventually this thing is just like, part of the. We were talking earlier, like, Jassy didn't exactly paint this, like, incredibly exciting vision and share, like, hey, we. You guys are actually underestimating demand still. Even if you're bullish on AI, you're underestimating demand. And we're in a position to actually try to get a more accurate read here. And that's why we're investing. Yeah. And it's funny because they could have said one thing that would have made the AWS call better. And they'd be like, yeah, we see high 20s and like, the stock would have ripped. But they're like, we continue to project to see this level of growth. What percentage of the.

Nice. Total reversal. Classic AI narrative. Just day by day. Complete switching of the narrative. Talk about the NPM downloads. Because you said that you're now scraping them every day trying to understand how many commits on GitHub are related to Claude code. And the pushback from Rune was that this counts NPM downloads as authoritative when Claude code numbers are hugely inflated. Because GitHub Actions does automatic Claude code download every time. Continuous integration CI runs versus Codex compute cloud. So maybe it's not apples to apples. What's more, nuance on the fast takeoff of Claude code? Because honestly, when you said 20% of commits by the end of the year, I was like, that feels extremely low. I would expect like 70% and I would expect Codex to be at 30% and no more human commits because it's working. So I wanted to make sure we have like a high standard, like a high 95% plus. Sure. I don't think, like, sure. If it continues to grow on a week. On week basis. Like, yeah, it's like 100% by June or something like that. Well, there's also the fact that you could be writing code and still just almost be using cloud code as your linter or your interface to GitHub. And if there's an abstraction layer there that people adopt, you're going to see the commits go through the roof, even if there's still a human in the loop meaningfully. Look, I'm not going to pretend the cloud code commits thing is the cleanest way ever. There's a lot of ways to fuck the data up. For example, people who use who you could just say, don't do this and won't do it. Number two, like, private on a ratio is like five times bigger. Sure. That matters way more. And then, like, I also think that, like, the way you consume it, like this doesn't count for cursor. People have been clearly using AI for like a long while. It doesn't show up. Yeah, this is just the example. I can like say, hey, chart goes up really quickly. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's still cool. It's not perfect. Yeah, I. It's. It's a data set that I create. No. In a relatively short amount of time. Yeah. Seems pretty cool. Yeah, yeah, no, it is. We talk about Amazon.

Yeah. And then obviously like it swapped over. So I still think OpenAI is like the cognitive referent. And honestly, 5.3 cooks. Yeah. Faster or just better or both? Faster and better. Faster and better. Okay. Talk about 5.2 token efficiency. Rune was pushing back on the article saying you're making the assertion that 5.2 token efficiency ruins long horizon planning and yet 5.2 tops the meter chart for long horizon planning half baked. What's the explanation there? Didn't someone completely mock that argument? But he's kind of a. He's like, sorry, I got to find the guy. But it's like, I don't know what task is being done here. Like is true. Are they the same hardness? Yes. Did you just spam it to infinity and like you finish like a sufficiently long task to completion versus like, like, okay, let's just say we have two kids taking the SAT and one does a better job and finishes first and one does like almost as good of a job and took seven times as long and you're like, wow, that one's a smart kid. Yeah. No, dude, that doesn't make any sense. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, that makes sense. Yeah, yeah. An elegant solution delivered faster is uniformly better. Yeah, 100%. That makes sense. Yeah. And so if you spam more tokens and you win and you're like, oh look, I mobbed them and it's like, dude, what if you just use less tokens? I think the benchmark is supposed to be for. They have a reference class of projects that are supposed to take X amount of time. They would take a human developer six hours. And then they have all the models compete. And if you can compete the six hour task, then you get put at the six hour mark. It's not did you run for six hours? Ok, that makes sense. So it could be like implement a CRM product or you know, write a very complicated, you know, database or something. It would take, you know, a talented software developer six hours, two hours, one hour. And they have different tasks and then you're trying to climb that hurdle. Oh yeah. And then it's okay, it climbs higher and higher. I think, I think that's loosely. It's because obviously you could just say, okay, just reasoning, count to 1 billion and just go as slow as. And it works for days. And that's not impressive. I think the meter. Yeah, I mean, it's okay. So yeah, you're right. The different, the scaling thing. But like, okay, so one, the other thing I was doing, like now that we have vibe coding available to everyone. You can just have it do the same task and do like abc. I've been doing like a lot of internal benchmarking. Like, everyone could benchmark guys. Like, dude, Codex 5.2 took so long and just never build for me. Oh, interesting. And it's like all the Codex hype during, like, it just never worked for me, man. It never one shot projects like Opus 4.5 did. And I'm just like, this feels like complete FUD. But that being said, Codex 5.3 cooks. I think I take everything back about 5.2 for 5.3. Nice. Total reversal. Classic AI narrative. Just day by day.

Like, yeah, it's going to be coworker Codex. And Codex is actually pretty good. Codex is, I think, a slightly more polished experience than coworker. Yeah. Last question for me. Take me on the journey of what's going on with Microsoft. What you predicted, how that's changed, how their strategy has changed. Give me the proper way to understand Microsoft these days. Yeah. Microsoft's not in the race, bro. Why? I know, but they're getting owned. They have all of the ip. I agree with you. I don't understand why it's not like, oh, 5.3 launches, Microsoft's announcing it the same day and it's actually integrated and people are using it on day one. It takes time. Yeah. It's a skill issue. Yeah. It's clearly something's going on. And honestly, the thing that makes me most bearish, that is the fact that Satya is like, I'm not the CEO, I'm the product manager of Copilot because I'm so boned if I don't get this figured out. Yeah. Like, you can argue it is the moat. It is now existential. He's decided, like, hey, my CEO job is getting this one thing right, otherwise we're screwed. And that is kind of worrying. It does feel like they could potentially also. Also, the pullback at the beginning. Of last year, kind of the, the. The. The quick pause is now looking silly in the context of it was Amazon coming in now and saying, yeah, where everybody's on board now. Yeah. We'Ll see. Yeah, we'll see. I think they have the most to lose. What about gaming?

Amount of supply chain that's, like, locked up. It's, it's, it's Nvidia. Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. Can you get Macron a free semianalysis plan? Because he came out this week with his big new initiative, 30 million euros for AI research. France is going to be the home of research. How do you think all the hyperscalers will respond? You know what's crazy is people have been trying to do a lot of work in France for a long time because they have this giant nuclear. Nuclear power plant. Yeah. It's kind of stranded and no one uses it. And, like, everyone wants to be like, dude, I can get a gigawatt here. And then they, like, try to start building and they're just like, yeah, this is never going to happen. I'm just going to go back to the United States. Even though United States is, like, all fucked up, it's like, I can start there. And they're like, no, no, no, no. We'll start in, like, five years. And I can think of two specific projects that essentially did the same thing, where it's like, oh, my God, all this France data center power. And then, like, they started. Never mind. Yeah. Why do you think.

Companies and, like, the stock would have ripped, but they're like, we continue to project to see this level of growth. What percentage, what percentage of the 200 billion do you think will actually flow to Nvidia? Because Nvidia is rallying today. That's why we're wearing white suits. But it didn't rally immediately, in after hours. I think. A meaningful amount. I definitely cannot disclose what somebody else is thinking thinks, but I think they're going to run out of trainium. And the answer is, what's the biggest amount of supply chain that's locked up? It's Nvidia. Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. Can you get.

Context. Rod is real. Yeah. So. But how fast is it getting better? Because it feels like we're seeing the meter graph. Scary fast, scary fast. Scary, scary, scary. So I started vibe coding with Claude 4 and it just wasn't or, sorry, Opus 4 on Claude code. And it just could not one shot websites in the way that 4.5 and 4.6 can. And if it just marginally improves from here, it feels like why would I pay for any kind of UI UX if it's just going to be generated at a good enough quality. Yeah. How did you process the new models this week? Four, six, five, three. What's the review?

How many likes does that have? That's a banger. 4050. 4000. That's great. Let's go over to the Guinness tally. Tyler has it. He counted it up, he sat down, he studied the Dorkesh Patel cheeky pint crossover episode with Elon Musk, and he counted three pints for Elon, four pints for John, and three quarters of a pint for Dwarkesh. But there's a suspicious refill. Yeah. So, I mean, it's a bit hard to really tell because so if you're tracking Dwarkesh's volume right throughout the episode, it kind of goes down and he's at maybe like 80% full. And then it goes back up. That's like a refill. But it's like a direct. So it's after a. There's like an ad read and then it goes back up. So the question is like, during the, you know, whatever happened during the ad read? Right. Did he just like slam it true filled back up all the way, or is it just kind of a partial fill? I think you got to give them 1.75. Okay, can we, can we pull up the screenshot? Yes. Is this the other, the other debate? The other debate was just around the actual size of the pints? Yes. Is there some of them? They look like full pint glasses. So, yeah, if you go to. They look like full size pint glass. Another photo of Elon holding the pint. Yes. Three down. You gotta pull that, Pull that up. Tyler. Put it in the product. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no, it's here. This is really important. Yeah, you see this and it's like, okay, that looks pretty small in his hands. A little small. And then, and then let's click over to Timothee Chalamet. Timothee Chalamet, I mean, he's a smaller person, but it looks the same size to me. I think these are fair pint glasses. I think these are accurate. I'm not seeing anything that's. That's so Timothy Chalamet's 5 10. Elon is 6 2. So slight height difference, but I mean. I feel like, yeah, Elon is really mauling that maybe. Yeah, I think they're just potentially wider. I think they. And this is the kind of hard hitting analysis that you can really only get on this show. No other technology media is really breaking down pint analysis. I'm going normal sized pints on this, but it is, it is an interesting illusion. Yeah, this one looks incredible. It's a little bit of an optical illusion. It's close. It's close. I mean, either way. I know, but we don't know. Even if it's a half pint, John drank four, so that's two full pints. Even if it's a half pint. You know, I think these are full pint glasses. I'm going full pint. Okay. You know who else is going full pint? John. Who? The founder of crypto.

To dirty soda. Dirty soda. We gotta talk about the Utah. Had you heard of dirty soda? I'd never heard of dirty soda before. Have you heard of this? Yeah, yeah. This is big in Utah. This is big in Utah. Yeah, yeah. Have you been to Utah? No. How do you know that it's big. In Utah, then exposed. My friends, like send it to me on Instagram. They're like, look at this. Okay, all right. What is dirty soda? You have friends who live in Utah. It's like soda and they put like cream in it and stuff. Right. Okay, well, we'll dig in. I think we'll let the Wall Street Journal get the facts straight. But first I'll tell you about phantom cash. Fund your wallet without exchanges or middlemen and spend with the phantom card. A mom with five children ages 6 to 16 in St. George, Utah, Nicole Tanner didn't realize she was onto something with dirty soda. That's what the creator of the chain Swig calls spiking Coke, Mountain Dew or Dr. Pepper with fruit purees and flavored cream served in plastic cups stuffed with pebble ice. Microplastic nightmare. Nightmare. Really? I didn't know pebble ice was at risk. No, no, no. I'm talking about. I'm just saying plastic. Oh, the plastic cup. Her business took off a few years ago when pop star Olivia Rodrigo was in Utah filming the TV series High School Musical and posted an Instagram photo holding a cup from Swig. Now dirty soda is the hashtag big chains want in. McDonald's recently tested Sprite with lemon vanilla syrup and dragon fruit Taco Bell swirls. It's teal colored Baja Dream freezes with vanilla cream and calls it a Mountain Dew Baja Blast. Dirty Freeze. We forgot to ask Sam Altman if he's going to issue a Baja Blast because he did the code red. It's time for a Baja Blast. It's time to Baja Blast. He's back to this top. Maybe that's what the super bowl had. Codex. Oh, that would be Baja Blast. Kodak Collab campaign for the builders. Yes. TGI Fridays last year started offering a line of dirty sodas and could be amped up with shots of Jack Daniel Hennessy. That sounds. When I hear dirty soda, I feel like it's spiked with alcohol. But apparently just. Dirty Sprite. That's like, yeah. Oh, yeah. That's right. To the future. And drive in chain Sonic has encouraged customers to make it dirty by ordering creamer and mix ins with their sodas. While the heart of dirty sodas may still be Utah and the Mountain west states. Swig has expanded to around 100, 140 locations across 16 states. That's fast. This is insane to me. To me, this feels like a really tough business to be in long term because if, if the product becomes popular, everyone has it. Everyone has it immediately. You have no real ip. Yeah. Right. Because you're just using sodas off the shelf. Sure. So yeah, I'd be interested to see what happens to these 140 locations even though the product is a hit. Yeah. Tanner's main investor, Family investment Office. Larry H. Miller Co brought in a professional chief executive who has taken other companies public. And he is talking of an eventual initial public offering for the chain which had around 100 million in sales last year. Tanner. I mean these must be incredibly simple to run. It's literally a box. You have soda and creamer. So I could see even they don't. Sell food or anything here. This is like such a simple. We're doing what Starbucks did for coffee, but for soda, said Swig CEO Alex Dunn. So Alex Dunn says pull up here 6am on the way to the gym. Grab a big soda. I feel like you'd need more caffeine if you really wanted to displace Starbucks. People will really just stop at a dedicated place just to get a tasty soda. That's a crazy thing. Gabe is sharing a quote from Future. Dirty soda and a Styrofoam. Spend a day to get my mind blown. Oh, L.H. miller was the owner of the Utah Jazz. Interesting. Tyler, did you have more context here? Well, I was just gonna say on the caffeine thing, isn't the whole point that it doesn't have. It's like not caffeinated. Right. Because you're Mormon. Oh, okay. So it's a Utah thing. I think so, yeah. Okay. Okay. At least originally. Or there's like a little caffeine. But you can probably do caffeine free Coca Cola or something. I started. I did something recently that felt. It felt really wrong, but the result was good. I mixed a Yerba with a Mexican Coke. Ooh. Okay. And it was fantastic. Mata Ina. Yeah. And Mexican Coke. It's fun. Gemini 3 Pro. Google's most intelligent model yet. State of the art reasoning. Next level vibe coding. Deep multimodal understanding. Tanner grew up on an Idaho dairy farm. The fifth of eight children. She got her associate degree in office education. That is a sweet degree. Wow. Who runs office education here? Office education. We need some. Maybe. Maybe we do. Here's how you use Claude code and. Started working in Marketing for a library system software company. Let's give it up for library system software company. I bet you, I bet you this is more durable business. Thanks out there. She got married and by 23 started family. Tanner started working for Mary Kay selling makeup and skin care products and eventually building a team of 18 consultants. Let's give it up for MLMs. Yeah, I think they would just suit that. Right? Yeah. Anytime you. They don't like the pyramid scheme term, but I don't know, maybe I'll. Multi level marketing I think is just a Strategy. Right. In 2007, the Tanners moved with their five children to St. George from Colorado. She was a 38 year old mother of five, craving caffeine and tired of watered down fountain soda. Okay. So when she decided to turn her cravings into a business in 2010. Oh, wait, overnight success. So coffee wasn't a choice. Tanner's Mormon and adherence typically traditionally abstain from coffee. But you could have caffeine in. In soda. I didn't realize that that seems like a loophole. This is, this is. I love this. Tanner and her husband use savings to avoid taking out a business loan to buy a 700 square foot commercial building in St. George with a big parking lot. It's like people are like, oh, I moved to San Francisco and I had a mattress on the floor. I have so much conviction. Okay, buy a building for your untested with soda company with all your savings. That's real conviction. Lever up, get the mortgage. Her idea was to serve super cold soda with a twist like lime, fruit or purees. Tanner initially leased a fountain machine from Coca Cola. When she asked PepsiCo for the same, Tanner said the company took a pass. So do rivals typically push restaurant chains to stock their products exclusively? So Tanner bought two liter bottles of Pepsi and Mountain Dew from grocery stores. I love seeing your face when you ask for a diet Coke on a plane and they say is Pepsi okay? And you just say absolutely not. After about a month, Pepsi relented. She said she started with limes, lemons and six flavor shots. She recruited her eldest daughter and niece to work in the store. Her 15 year old son held up signs outside advertising that job, going away, signs spinning. I've been getting so many signs spinning reels with the you broke my heart. That's just one guy, but I see all of his reels and it's just like him being like I don't have a job. And then he'd be crazy. He can actually spin that into an interesting digital ad business because he could Just do the signs, whatever's on something online. Because the video. I honestly never see what's on the sign though, because it's spinning so fast. No, I know. But use that as a lead in. Sure. And then promote ramp. Yeah. Good. Tanner, in the beginning, price your drinks at a dollar for any size. That's crazy. I didn't know you could get anything for a dollar in this country anymore. Helping draw students from nearby Utah Tech University in 2013, local news broadcast found customers waiting to get a mango puree, Mountain Dew or Big Al soda. That's interesting. I saw the. I don't know if this is a Big Al soda or Big AI soda. So they said. They said a few years ago, Olivia Rodrigo promoted it and it went viral. I thought this business was only a few years old, I guess. No, it's an overnight success. It started overnight success. That's pretty remarkable. Yeah. 20 after customers started referring to Swig's Dr. Pepper and Cream combination as dirty soda, Tanner latched onto the phrase encouraging customers they got to pay future royalty. I won't stand by this. They should get future as an influencer. That'd be good. Yeah. He's like, when I said dirty soda, I meant promising. By 2017, Swig had grown to more than a dozen stores. The staff was spread thin, and Tanner realized she lacked the expertise to grow further. She and her husband separated in 2020. RIP and is no longer involved in SWIG. And I hate when I'm just like reading this incredible story of entrepreneurship and then they kind of interrupt the flow there. In 2025, she married Greg Robinson and they continue to live in Utah. It was held together with some duct tape and hairpins, said Andrew Smith, a Utah based investor whose Savory fund invests. Oh, they took a majority stake. Interesting. They bought that. Very cool. In recent years, Swig has gotten a boost from the cast of the Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, a reality TV show chronicling a group of Utah based TikTok influencers. Interesting. We're at Swig, so I can tell you exactly what my Swig order is. It's sparkling water, sugar free pineapple, sugar free peach, sugar free vanilla raspberry puree with a fresh lime. That's crazy. So over the top. Anyways, what a cool story. Yeah. Tanner says we're in extreme high growth mode right now. The company estimates it serves over 2,000 drinks in a single conference. The White House.

Death match. We are experts. Triple blaze. Let's just roll, right? Market clearing order. Inbo. Come. Get up. We are surrounded by journalists. Hold your position. Strike 1. Strike 2, Activate. Go, golden retriever. Market clearing order inbound. 5. I'll see multiple journalists on the horizon. You're watching TVPN. Today is Friday, February 6, 2026. We are live from the TVPN Ultra Realm Temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the king capital of capital. It's a white suit day. The market's up for the rally. Don't check what the market did yesterday, check what it's doing. You never doubted, did you? Never doubted when the fear and greed index was full. And now fear scared for its life. This happens ramp.com time is money save. Both easy use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting and a whole lot more all in one place. We have a great show for you today, folks. We have Doug O' Laughlin from Semianalysis joining to break down Claude code. T.J. parker's hopping on. We got Max Levchin, part of the PayPal mafia, co founder and CEO of a firm. And we're bricked up. We're going into databricks territory. It's gonna be fantastic. We also might have a surprise guest for you folks. Anyway, linear, of course, is the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise workspaces on LINEAR are using agents. Get on there, folks. Big week. Bottlenecks, bottlenecks. I mean, we're going to talk about the cloud code moment to the cloud code psychosis, sort of the software singularity. Doug o' Laughlin is coming on to talk about his experience, why he thinks this is a key inflection point. Tyler Cowen was talking about this with the 5.3 launch Opus 4.6 launch. Like, there's clearly signs of a takeoff. It feels like a slow takeoff, but there's a whole bunch of sort of recursive compounding elements that are starting to form. Recursive, you say recursive. Literally recursive. Like you like the models feedback into themselves, give them more tasks. We saw this with Gastown. There's a whole bunch of stuff going on in orchestration that's interesting. And so I wanted to sort of reflect on like, if there's going to be a break, if there's going to be a damper on the party, if someone's going to pull away the punch bowl, who's it going to be, the semiconductor industry or the energy industry? At the start of this year, I said it was gonna be the year of energy. I still Think it's important to think about energy because that it will be a bottleneck. But this year and not even just. Because of AI, just for overall human flourishing. Totally, totally. Yeah. And yeah, so we had some great conversations this week. Sam Altman, we talked to Dylan Patel, we talked to Sholto, we talked to. We reviewed what Ben Thompson was saying. Dwarkesh interviewed Elon. So there's a lot of new data points about how people are thinking about the trade offs between semiconductor fab capacity and energy production capacity. So I wanted to sort of like crystallize like where I think the debate and consensus is right now. So first I'll tell you about Okta. Okta helps you assign every AI agent a trusted identity. So you get the power of AI without the risk. Secure every agent, secure any agent with Okta. So there's been this like TikTok going back and forth in the AI supply chain. What's the key bottleneck to growth? It does feel like only if you. You have to work at an AI lab to really feel the bottlenec. Most people, they're just like, I open the chat app, probably chatgpt. I ask it a question, it gets back to me in a reasonable amount of time. I'm not really hitting rate rate limits. The rate limits come when there's big moments the studio give people that have. Always felt the rate limiting is very real with using anthropic products. Yes. If you're. If you're. Which is why I asked Schultz yesterday, what are free limits going to? That's why you asked him that. What's that? It was just random that you asked. Well, I was also interested in the. Completely in the context. Yes, it was completely in the context of compute. No, but they've consistently been compute constrained. At least they've talked about it more than most and users have talked about it quite a lot. So I'm just quite curious, what is the free experience going to be like Sunday? If somebody downloads the app, sees the ads, they're like, I want LLMs without ads. Even though no other popular LLM actually has ads yet. But I do wonder. Yeah. About the Claude app experience. They're pretty upfront with you about the fact that if you're on the opus model, like you'll hit your rate limits faster and even just a couple prompts deep, it will take a second and kind of compact the conversation so it can keep talking to you. I know they're increasing the token context window, but it feels like it works fine. But it is a smaller user base Although I'm very interested to see where it goes in the App Store. ChatGPT is still at number one. Grok is oddly doing incredible in the App Store. Way higher than Axe, the social networking app store. Yeah. For no obvious reason. I mean, there's just not a lot of hype about Grok. Like, they're doing okay on benchmarks. Obviously. Elon has a very solid playbook for, like, scaling and how. To me, I don't care as much about hype. Yeah. When it comes to the App Store, there's plenty of apps on the App Store charts that have no hype. Yeah. One of the top. One of the top is called Free Cash. Free Cash. It's number two. But that one above Gemini, I understand. Why that is Free Cash. Get paid real money. Yeah. Hot on ChatGPT's heel. Yeah. Well, let me tell you about Figma. Figma make isn't your average vibe coding tool. It lives in figma, so outputs look good, feel real, and stay connected to how teams build. I would say back prototypes. As part of. We have the OpenAI Elon lawsuit as part of that. What if part of the settlement agreement is OpenAI has to give4.0 to Grok? I mean, they might just wind up. Yesterday was seriously one of the craziest experiences if you weren't watching our Sam interview live. And honestly, the entire show. Yeah. There was thousands of messages from people from 4O soldiers saying, Keep 4 oh, yeah. Keep 4 oh hashed. Throwing hashtags. You don't see hashtags no. That much anymore, but they were throwing hashtags around. Keep 4.0. Yeah. So I think maybe if Elon can negotiate for that. So thank you to the TVPN army, the Day Ones. We will never switch up on you. We'll never let the money change us. We'll never forget where we came from. Yeah. Bobby was going to. You guys in the chat were doing overtime work, keeping things somewhat sane. There's not much you can do in that situation. Interestingly, a lot of people were saying, oh, is it bots? Because there is this world where, okay, if you're playing really, really dirty, you could be a different lab and you could say, okay, this 4.0 thing, maybe it's a little bit of a deal, but I could amplify it with some fake bots that post more, generate extra content. It's very easy to generate a slop post that sounds like a 4.0-deranged person, and then you could just amplify it and it would all of a Sudden look like, oh wow, there's millions of people that are affected by this. But I don't think they were bots in the chat. Like the messages looked human to me. They weren't copy paste. We get spam in the chat every once in a while we get this spam for a company that wants to route us to a specific URL to buy stream viewers. Basically fake our account. And so that bot knows go around and find live streams all over Twitch and pitch the Twitch streamers. Fake bots that will watch the stream to help them climb the charts. Right. So that business model makes sense for those people. You have to do like seven other steps to get to the point where like, okay, you're a rival lab and you don't like OpenAI and you're trying to create a headache for them. So you create all these bots and then you have to have the bots ready to rock on a YouTube chat that you had an hour notice for, like, that's pretty hard to set up all these YouTube accounts. It's not like the say you're not. Say you're not open claw pill. Okay, okay, maybe it's possible, but it didn't feel like they were bots and I think the chat agrees. For hours they were telling these people, save me. Yeah, so there was a Reddit group that shared the streamlinks. So they all came here. There were some bots, but it felt pretty crazy. And yeah, it'll be interesting to see 4.0 is fully going offline. It's already very hard to reach. You have to go into turn on legacy models and the. It's going offline right around Valentine's day. I think February 13th and I don't know how they'll respond. In truth, it feels odd to me because it does seem like you can get the 4.0 experience elsewhere with a fine tuned open source model or prompt engineering. But the 4.0 fans really care about that. Specifically. I think there's some sort of parasocial relationship even with the ui, with the app, with everything that's going on. They feel like it's not something that's perfectly replicable elsewhere, which is just like, it's just a fascinating, weird time that I don't think we've ever seen because people were upset when Facebook launched the feed and they were like, we want to go back and they made these groups and the groups got a lot of implication. Ironically, some people were upset when Microsoft stopped investing as heavily into Clippy. That's true. That's True, but. But I was never logging onto a Twitch stream and saying, I got bring back Clippy. And Yeah, the notable thing is they didn't seem to be able to process that it wasn't just a show about Sam. Yeah. Even after Sam had left, they just kept going. Yeah. Which was very, very strange. Yeah, yeah. Anyways, I hope all of those people to find peace and hopefully help in real life. Yeah, yeah. Very odd. Anyway, back to the bottleneck. Back to someone that's helping unblock the bottleneck. Railway. Railway is the all in, all in one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agent to deploy web apps, servers, databases, and I got to. Issue a slight correction. Automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring and security. I think railway is actually contributing to the. Potentially, to the demand. Potentially. But that's, you know, it's important work. Anyway, so right now it feels like chips are the more important piece of the bottleneck to talk about. Sam Altman put it this way. I asked him, like chips versus energy, what's the bigger bottleneck right now? He says it goes back and forth, but right now it's chips. It's different at different times. It may get solved on its own, normal capitalism may solve it. But I think somehow deciding as a society that we are going to increase the wafer capacity of the world and we're going to fund that and we're going to get the whole supply chain and the talented people who make that happen would be a very good thing to do. And so why do we have a chip bottleneck to begin with? Semiconductors have been doubling and we've been on this Moore's Law curve. What's interesting is that the semiconductor industry should be better equipped to avoid a bottleneck because it's already been on an exponential, whereas energy production has been like flat, sort of like a malaise for a long time. Getting on, getting that unstuck is hard, but I think that's a problem for 2027, potentially. So the chip bottleneck comes down to consolidation. Power plants, data centers, cooling technology. There's a bunch of suppliers in each of these industries and you can parallelize them and you can steer resources from adjacent areas to focus on AI projects specifically. Even a company like Boom Supersonic can turn into a turbine manufacturer, and there's a lot of other industries that are able to move over. And Dylan Patel gave us some extra context there. So he said the semiconductor industry is used to doubling the amount of transistors made every year or two. Part of that is more advanced nodes, part of that's more Capacity, whereas the energy industry in America wasn't built for that kind of growth. So initially people weren't creative. They were like, let's build these combined cycle gas plants. But now we've realized, yes, there are three main manufacturers of turbines. And for dual combined cycle, you've got IGTs, but you've also got medium speed reciprocating engines. Turns out Cummins can make about a million diesel diesel engines a year and those can generate electricity. I don't if I don't care about aesthetics and I put them in West Texas easy. And so there's all these different areas where you can reallocate. You can't just take an Intel CPU and do anything useful in AI with it. It's just like Elon. Also on Cheeky Pint with Dorkash and John Collison. John talked about the Tesla team adapting. He thinks they'll have to actually make turbine blades because they can get a lot of the other components, but they may have to actually make those. Yeah. So back to the leading edge fabs. It's a completely different beast. These fabs cost tens of billions. 30, 50, 75, 80 billion I've seen to build. And it takes three, four, sometimes five years to go from breaking ground to actually getting up to producing volume. And we have like the perfect example of this because TSMC announced a plant in Arizona in 2020. And in 2025 it's still not producing at volume. It's doing really well. It's great, but that's five years. And it's not just like, oh yeah, it's as effective as what's in Taiwan. And so ASML is the only viable producer of EUV lithography machines. And so there's this bottleneck within the chip bottleneck which is the TSMC supplier ASML. And they ship around 50 EUV machines per year, maybe 50, 60. Each one costs $350 million. And leading edge fabs need dozens. So if you want to build a bunch more fabs, you need a bunch more tool makers. And ASML has its own supply chain for different lenses and glass and all sorts of stuff. They work with Zeiss Trump, whole bunch of different companies. And that supply chain is not very diversified. So you have another bottleneck even deeper in the supply chain. And so all these vendors are highly specialized. And then even after you get the fab built, there's still at least a year of processing, engineering, maybe 12 to 18 months, where you actually work to get to high yield production. We're seeing that in TSMC Arizona. And TSMC just has decades of intellectual capital locked in the heads of engineers that they can't easily transfer or parallelize. And so this has made TSMC the real bottleneck. Hyperscalers are pushing capex numbers into the hundreds of billions of dollars. Talk about this more in the show. But the supply curve for leading edge wafers is relatively inelastic. There's also this bullwhip effect when during COVID we weren't shipping cars. So a bunch of people cut back on demand. And so that pulled things back. And it takes years for these to work through. Then you get overcapacity, everyone demands way more and then you over expand and then you collapse and it's this constant. And the further out you are in the supply chain, the more the bullwhip affects you. So TSMC controls 90% of the advanced node market with Samsung and Intel far behind. And this is why Ben Thompson, aside from the geopolitical concerns about tsmc, is really urging tech companies to wake up. And so he says the reality that hyperscalers and fabless chip companies need to wake up to, however, is that avoiding the risk of working with someone other than TSMC incurs new risks that are both harder to see and also more substantial. So there's a huge risk if you say, you know what, I'm going to go and place a huge order with Samsung or Intel or I'm going to take a huge risk and be the anchor customer of their new cutting edge leading edge fab. But Ben Thompson saying there's a risk to not doing that. And he says, except again, we can see the harms already foregone revenue today as demand outstrips supply. Today's shortages, however, may prove to be peanuts. If AI has the potential these companies claim it does. Future foregone revenue at the end of the decade is going to cost exponentially more surely a lot more than whatever is necessary expense wise to make Samsung or Intel into viable competitors for tsmc. You really got to wonder what conversations are like between Jensen and TSMC right now, given that it just doesn't feel. I mean Taiwan is. TSMC is not. They're certainly not going out and making kind of going risk on, right? They're staying relatively probably more conservative than some of their downstream customers would like. Pop quiz. Do you know where TSMC is listed? The New York Stock Exchange. Want to change the world? Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. Just do it. Just be like TSMC. Just build a $1.5 trillion semiconductor company. That would be nice we need more of these. We do anyway. Let's move on to the hyperscalers compound. 248 says poor Jassy. Andy Jassy. He's going to learn something about Amazon today. When Google announces a crazy number, it's because it's playing offense. But when Amazon announces a crazy number, it's because it's playing defense. Ipso facto. So Amazon said it will spend $200 billion this year on AI build out. This is from Bloomberg. But this is worrying investors that the company's colossal bet on artificial intelligence will pinch profits while it waits for the investments to pay off. The shares fell in extended trading. The company reported spending $130 billion on property and equipment in 2025. Analysts expect those expenses would reach 150 billion this year. But Amazon's saying we're going to 200. We're going all in. So the stock's down maybe 8% in after hours trading. Likely back up today because things are going better, but we'll see. How is Amazon doing today? Not as down but not as violently as it was after hours last night after earnings. So over the last month it's sold off 15%? Yep. And a lot of frustration from Amazon shareholders. Obviously they had the fastest growth in 13 quarters and the stock is still down 10%. Amazon looking back over the last five years to early 2021 only up 23% over five years. So of course you did quite a lot better if you bought after the overall ZURP sell off. Yeah, just not as sexy as a narrative as the rest of the hyperscalers. Zuck obviously is a huge beneficiary of advancements in AI. We see that with the accelerating ads market. Microsoft, even though, yeah, it's getting beat up a little bit now they have that massive position in OpenAI that feels like they fully in solid place. They got the ip, they got, you know, a real hold on the AI question. Google's obviously in a fantastic place. Nvidia clearly. But Amazon's had a little bit rougher. Yeah, yesterday was just such a strange day. Reform trader says software stocks are cooked for not investing in AI. Mag7 stocks are cooked for investing heavily in a. I hope that helps. It is crazy. You need to do both invest and don't bother and don't invest. Oh, this is the image. I love this image. What is this from Matt Damon in which one? I don't know. In Rounders. Oh, that's Rounders. Last night we were just talking about this. That's rounders. I thought good will Hunting for some reason, but same era. So this is a summary of the 2026 CAPEX numbers from the hyperscalers. Google is going to do 175, 185 billion versus 120 estimated. Meta is doing 115 to 135 relative against 110 estimated. Tesla's going to 20 billion from 11 billion estimated. And Amazon, they were estimating 145, but they're going to do 200. And so they're going all in. One of the top comments here is very funny. It says, what exactly is Meta buying? They don't do anything with AI. That's not true. Open up reels. It's AI. They are recommending all of sorts. Sorts of stuff. Yeah. So much inference. LA purchaser says he could. Talking about somebody says is English Jassy's first language. Ripping off the headphones and they say he could just say this is a generational investing opportunity. That TAM is an order of magnitude bigger than anyone is contemplating. We are the market leader, we are investing to be the cost leader. What we did in retail, we are doing here. The more money we spend, the more excited we get about the opportunity. There is a very tangible roi. We see it. You're going to see it in the numbers. You are seeing AWS accelerate. It will keep accelerating. He says. Instead, we got a word salad where you can pick your own conclusion. Yeah. It wasn't. It wasn't nothing about the earning. Like people can feel the emotion and the energy. Right. There wasn't. They can. There wasn't anything to like, obviously the business is doing great, but there wasn't anything to like, rally around and get really excited by. Right. There's zero vision. And yeah, even in the Cheeky Pint Elon episode, Dwarkesh and John are pushing Elon on the data centers in space thing. And I thought that Elon could have done more to really get people. Basically the same thing. The TAM is an order of magnitude bigger than anyone is contemplating and we are investing for that future. Right. It was a lot of like trying to just justify. Yeah. Putting it up there. Yeah. Yeah. When. When they were saying, like, hey, there's a lot of land in the us we can blanket the US with solar panels. We do a lot here. And so again, I think people are getting kind of caught up in the details when. If you're going to spend, you know, you would hope. AWS making this kind of investment. Yeah. That they have more conviction than Tyler does on the opportunity. Right. I don't know. If that's. I don't know if that's possible. He's in the white suit. He's looking, looking good, Tyler. Yeah. Round of applause. Round of applause for Plaid Plaid Powers. The apps you use to spend, save, borrow and invest securely. Connecting bank accounts to move money, fight fraud and improve lending. Now with a Bubble Boy. This is a classic Elon thing where you know, he will lay out a vision that takes 10, 20, 30 years, but he says it's going to take 10, 20, 30 months. And so you have to sort of grapple with the short term, but still you can't lose sight of like the long term because like we did get rockets that land and we did get space Internet and whatnot. Yeah. I think he said like 36 months is his estimate for like when we start getting like computing space, like probably 30 months, I think. But then, so there's like kind of the. That's like the shorter term thing. But then he did talk about fair amount of time, like terawatts in space. Right. So like the US is currently like half a terawatt, but we're going to be putting terawatts in space of computer. He's sort of like falling back to first principles and just talking about. Yeah, he keeps putting like, oh, if you just look at like physics. Yeah, but it's kind of this catch all term uses when he doesn't really know what to say. It seems like. Yeah, well, yeah, it just seems like it's like the physics, it all checks out from the physics calculations. But when you map that to the economic realities, the human capital and financial capital realities, you're just looking at a very long timeline. And he doesn't like talking about thinking in decades, even though it's very clear that he does think in decades. He just doesn't articulate things in decades. Because it seems like the short term bull case for space data centers is basically just like regulatory. Right. It's just going to be way too hard to find this to find the actual land. Yeah. Didn't Will Menitis post something about that? He said that it's going to become really, really difficult to build any data centers in the United States, although you can certainly go to other countries with that. I'm sure there's plenty of countries that would love the jobs and the taxes. You see India already saying, hey, we'll just take a slice in 20 years. That's how AGI pilled they are. They're like, come build a data center here. You can be tax free for 20 years. But then we're going to be making money in, what, 2046. They're ready to rock quickly. Graphite code review for the age of AI graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software. Best. You wanted to talk about Magnus in the chat. None of you nerds, no physics. They were feeding him drinks. Chill out. It is actually crazy. I mean, we've never seen a Cheeky Pine episode where they actually drank. They did drink on this one. That was the main feedback from last year. Everyone's like, hey, great show, cool concept, great guests. Well, they were filming a lot of them, like during the workday with people in San Francisco. So it was somebody who would like, pop over, film an episode, and then you got to go back to work. So you don't necessarily want to be chugging pints, but it is, it is funny. Yeah. It feels like Elon took down three pints or four pints or something. You did the math. Right? So we'll talk about this later. There's some posts, but, you know, they seemed a bit smaller than normal pints maybe so is it really. But I counted three, like full glasses. The other thing. So Sam was obviously quite bearish on space data centers. In the near term, it is worth calling out that there was a rumor last year that they were kicking. He was kicking the tires on Rocket Lab. Remember that? So I think long term, I'm sure he'll want to have his own space. Company, but I think he would rather. If there's a hype cycle, he doesn't need it to be about him. He can let this one pass by and focus on the other things that are going on with the business. Because there's so much going on with the business. If you add too many narratives, it can actually confuse things. The, the. The x x AI SpaceX combination is crazy, but the space data center thing actually does sort of streamline the narrative, in my opinion. What do you think, Tyler? Yeah, I mean, I think Elon Orcash asked a question about this, which is like, oh, it's so crazy that, like SpaceX, they have this super ambitious mission, but they keep seeming to find these, like, good businesses on the way. Right. So first it's like Starlink with Falcon and then with Starship, it's like, I mean, can you. Do we really need that many starlinks? But if you can get space data centers. Yep. If you're putting up terawatts of compute, then like, yeah, you need like massive. You know, OTP in the chat says, dude just turned 21. And he can already I he's been studying the last week. What did bubble boy said? $660 billion of capex this year on AI data centers. To put a number like that in perspective, this is more than what we spent on the US Interstate Highway System. 630 billion more than what we spent on the Apollo moon program. 257 billion more than what we spent on the International Space Station. 150 billion. It's more money than Walmart's revenue last year. 650 billion. It's about 25% of all military spending globally. It's equivalent to buying 50 Gerald R. Ford aircraft carriers. It's the equivalent of spending $1.8 billion a day. $750 million an hour or $1.2 million a minute this year alone is without a doubt the biggest project in the history of capitalism. And we are spending it all. We're spending all of it in one year. God's Bubble boy did do the inflation adjustment here. The Apollo program cost something like 25 billion. Yeah. Also putting it into perspective, France announced an initiative earlier this week. They want to lead in AI research. So through their France 2030 program they have invested more than 30 million euros in this initiative. Macron says science has found its home. And Sean Frank says France is investing 30 million in this new AI initiative. That's how much Google will spend in 90 minutes. No joke. Every 90 minutes Google will spend 30 million on CapEx this year. One company company. They can hire Ilya for like an hour. An hour. One hour. Consulting call. Yeah, he's got to get on, get an intro. Yeah, intro. Hit up Brad Vibe Co where DTC brands, B2B startups and AI companies advertise on streaming TV, pick channels, target audiences and measure sales. Just like on Meta. Take him is breaking down the Nvidia news. The Stock is up 6.22%. Nvidia shares barely moved in after hours trading last night. Yeah, this is what I said. I was like Amazon just announced that hey, we're going to spend $200. What are they going to buy with those? I mean they will buy Trainium and Inferentia, but they're going to buy a lot of Nvidia. You know it take him said you all know I was already insanely bullish on Nvidia's NVL72 super cycle this year. These Capex numbers from Google and Amazon blow away even my most optimistic expectations for Nvidia's main and consumer market. And we also saw from Greg Brockman. That GB200 is off to the races. The Blackwell chips are now in full force over at OpenAI powering 5.3. There's a little bit of debate over whether that was train involved in training or inference, but it doesn't really matter. Blackwell's here and it's going to improve things, so. And that's probably good for chip designers, which Nvidia is obviously one of. Let me tell you about Lambda Lambda is the super intelligence cloud building AI, supercomputers for training and inference that scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands. Steven over at Lambda was the one who sent me that post from France originally. Yeah, he was. You were not kind. You were making fun of him. But it's a good post. Going all in on AI with $30 million. It's really like the. It has the. The 1 billion, $1 million because you're not aware of inflation because you've been frozen for 50 years or something like that. Let's go over to the Wall Street Journal. Yes, Behind Disney's search for a lasting successor to Bob Iger Company's succession committee reviewed information on over 100 candidates before the race was narrowed to two. This seems crazy. I guess you got to be thorough. If you were reviewed, you gotta put it here. So the trio, which is Bob Iger, Josh d' Amaro and Dana Waldron. They were meeting in Disney's executive dining room. Trio sat in a private room with panoramic views of Disney studio lot and surrounding San Francisco Valley, where Iger discussed scenarios the board of directors was considering. Could damarrow. We got a. Is it d' Amoro or Demoro demuro? Doug demuro. Is he related to Doug demuro? D', Amaro, chair of Disney's experience business, including theme parks and consumer products. Walden, co chairman of the entertainment business, lead the company together. What about with one in charge and the other as deputy? D' Amaro and Walden, who by that point were the finalists to succeed Iger, said they were open to all the scenarios. Disney's board of directors was scheduled to meet in the same building and hold its final vote on who the next CEO would be. The following Thursday, people close to the company predicted d' Amaro would be given the top job with Walden elevated role to ensure she stayed. The only surprise, it turned out, was the timing. Keenly aware of the intense public anticipation, Disney's 10 directors, including Iger, voted unanimously Monday to make Damaro CEO and Walton president and chief creative officer. We were ready to go and I didn't like sitting there with the news, board chairman James Gorman, who led the succession process, said in an interview. That was really fast. That was extremely fast. Rumors hit the various outlets and then it was like confirmed immediately. It's live. That was smart. At an employee town hall, d' Amaro described the moment as surreal and said he was initially embarrassed by his reaction. I got a little choked up when they let me know because it's a big responsibility. It is a big responsibility. His ascension will save for any unexpected snafus. Mark the end of a decade plus search for a lasting successor to Bob Iger that has been marked by delays, missteps and reversals. Employees said they are happy to have the biggest question about the company's future finally resolved and anxious about what a former parks leader running the company with a veteran television executive as his topic deputy will mean for Disney's let's give. It up for veteran television. So Gorman had previously run a leadership succession project at Morgan Stanley. He took over Disney's process in 2024 after joining the board, he said. The succession committee reviewed information on more than 100 candidates and homed in on several outsiders along with four Disney executives tomorrow, Walden Entertainment co chairman Alan Bergman and ESPN chief Jimmy Pitaro. Gorman said the board interviewed the candidates formally and in intimate lunches. They conducted 360 interviews with Disney executives, talking to subordinates and colleagues as well as bosses. By last summer, the race had narrowed to two candidates. Demaro and Walden traveled to Orlando in August to present their visions for Disney's future at the A board meeting. The Wall Street Journal previously reported this. In ensuing months, they met with board members in a less formal setting. Both executives talked to Iger frequently about what it took to run a company like Disney. Employees noticed and gossip was rampant. Staffers speculated about whether demaro's background in parks would hurt him, given that Bob Chapek had also run the company's theme park before his short lived tenure as CEO. Yeah, that'd be wild. Hey, we had a misstep with a Parks guy. No more Parks guys, yeah. Disney's leaders wanted the succession process to be as clean as possible without runners leaving the company. Given the Chapek fiasco, we wanted to get this right, said Gorman. As a result, few were surprised that Walden was named president, a position no one has held at Disney in 20 years. With a recommended retention bonus worth 5.3 million, Walden's creative officer position is a new one for Disney. Some in the company's movies division are nervous about what Walden's rise will mean for their business. Which she hasn't worked in before now. Which she hasn't worked in before. And now she oversees it. But there she is with the Founders Award at the International Emmys, New York, getting an award. A few company leaders founders Podcast Award. I don't know what the Founders Award of the International Emmys is for. Like, it's not for a founder because. Never heard of it. It's a prestigious honor bestowed by the International Academy of Television Arts and Sciences to individuals or organizations making a significant impact on global television. Okay, founders. Anyways, let's move on to Dirty Soda. Dirty Soda. We gotta talk about the Utah. Had you heard of Dirty Soda before on Dirty Soda? I'd never heard of Dirty Soda before. Have you heard of this? Yeah, yeah. This is big in Utah. This is big in Utah. Yeah, yeah. Have you been to Utah? No. How do you know that it's big in Utah? Then exposed. My friends, like, sent it to me on Instagram. They're like, look at this. Okay, all right. What is Derby Central? You have friends who live in Utah. It's like soda and they put like cream in it and stuff. Right. Okay, well, we'll dig in. I think we'll let the Wall Street Journal get the facts straight. But first I'll tell you about phantom cash. Fund your wallet without exchanges or middlemen and spend with the phantom card. A mom with five children, ages 6 to 16 in St. George, Utah, Nicole Tanner didn't realize she was onto something with dirty Soda. That's what the creator of the chain Swig calls spiking Coke, Mountain Dew or Dr. Pepper with fruit purees and flavored cream served in plastic cups stuffed with pebble ice. Microplastic nightmare. Nightmare? Really? I didn't know pebble ice was at risk. No, no, no, I'm talking about. I'm just saying. Oh, the plastic cup. Her business took off a few years ago when pop star Olivia Rodrigo was in Utah filming the TV series High School Musical and posted an Instagram photo holding a cup from Swig. Now, hashtag Dirty Soda is the hashtag big chains want in. McDonald's recently tested Sprite with lemon vanilla syrup and dragon fruit Taco Bell swirls. It's teal colored Baja Dream freezes with vanilla cream and calls it a Mountain Dew Baja Blast. Dirty Freeze. Oh, we forgot to ask Sam Altman if he's going to issue a Baja Blast because he did the code red. It's time for a Baja. Time to Baja Blast. He's back to this top. Maybe that's what The super bowl ad codex. Oh, that would. Baja Blast Kodak Collab campaign for the builders. Yes. TGI Fridays last year started offering a line of dirty sodas and could be amped up with shots of Jack Daniel Hennessy. That sounds. When I hear dirty soda, I feel like it's spiked with alcohol. But we're currently just. Dirty Sprite. That's like. Yeah. Oh, yeah, that's right. There's a future and drive in chain Sonic has encouraged customers to make it dirty by ordering creamer and mix ins with their sodas. While the heart of dirty sodas may still be Utah and the Mountain west states, Swig has expanded to around 140 locations across. This is insane to me. To me, this feels like a really tough business to be in long term because if. If the product becomes popular, everyone has it. Everyone has it immediately. You have no real ip. Yeah. Right. Because you're just using sodas off the shelf. Sure. So, yeah, I'd be interested to see what happens to these 140 locations even though the product is a hit. Yeah. Tanner's main investor, Family investment office Larry H. Miller Co brought in a professional chief executive who has taken other companies public and he is talking of an eventual initial public offering for the chain, which had around 100 million in sales last year. Tanner. I mean, these must be incredibly simple to run. It's literally a box. You have soda and creamer. Yeah. Yeah. So I could see even they don't. Sell food or anything here. This is like such a simple. We're doing what Starbucks did for coffee but for soda, said Swig CEO Alex Dunn. So Alex Dunn says pull up here. Yes. 6Am on the way to the gym. Grab a big soda. I feel like you'd need more caffeine if you really wanted to displace Starbucks. People will really just stop at a dedicated place just to get a tasty soda. That's a crazy Gabe. Gabe is sharing a quote from future. Dirty soda and a Styrofoam. Spend a day to get my mind blown. Oh. L.H. miller was the owner of the Utah Jazz. Interesting. Did you have more context here? Well, I was just gonna say on the caffeine thing, isn't the whole point that it doesn't have. It's like not caffeinated. Right. Because you're Mormon. Oh, it's. Oh, okay. So it's a Utah thing. I think so. Yeah. Okay. At least originally. Or there's like a little caffeine, but you can probably do caffeine free Coca Cola or something. I started I did something recently that felt. It felt really wrong, but the result was good. I mixed a yerba with a Mexican Coke and it was fantastic. Mata Yena. Yeah. And Mexican Coke. Gemini 3 Pro. Google's most intelligent model yet. State of the art reasoning. Next level vibe coding. Deep multimodal understanding. Tanner grew up on an Idaho dairy farm, the fifth of eight children. She got her associate degree in office education. That is a sweet degree. Wow. Who runs office education here? Office education. We need some education. Maybe we do. Here's how you use Claude code. I started working in marketing for a library system software company. Let's give it up for library system software company. I bet you. I bet you this is more durable business than some of the other sass out there. She got married and by 23 started a family. Tanner started working for Mary Kay selling makeup and skin care products and eventually building a team of 18 consultants. Let's give it up for MLMs. Yeah, I think they would just shoot that, right? Yeah, anytime you. They don't like the pyramid scheme term, but I, I don't know, maybe multi. Level marketing I think is just a strategy. In 2007, the Tanners moved with their five children to St. George from Colorado. She was a 38 year old mother of five, craving caffeine and tired of watered down fountain soda. Okay, so when she decided to turn her cravings into a business in 2010. Oh, wait, overnight success. So coffee wasn't a choice. Tanner is Mormon and adherents typically traditionally abstain from coffee. But you could have caffeine in soda. I didn't realize that. That seems like a loophole. This is, this is. I love this. Tanner and her husband use savings to avoid taking out a business loan to buy a 700 square foot commercial building in St. George with a big parking lot. It's like people are like, oh, I moved to San Francisco and I had a mattress on the floor. I have so much conviction. Okay, buy a building for your untested with soda company with all your savings. That's real conviction. Love her up. Get the mortgage. Her idea was to serve super cold soda with a twist like lime, fruit or purees. Tanner initially leased a fountain machine from Coca Cola. When she asked PepsiCo for the same, Tanner said the company took a pass. So do rivals typically push restaurant chains to stock their products exclusively? So Tanner bought two liter bottles of Pepsi and Mountain Dew from grocery stores. I love seeing your face when you ask for a Diet Coke on a plane and they say, is Pepsi okay? And you just say, absolutely not. After about A month. Pepsi relented, she said. Now she started with limes, lemons, and six flavor shots. She recruited her eldest daughter and niece to work in the store. Her 15 year old son held up signs outside advertising that job going away signs. I've been getting so many spy sign spinning reels with the you broke my heart. That's just one crazy. You know that one guy, but I see all of his reels and it's just like him being I don't have a job and then crazy. You can actually spin that into an interesting digital ad business because he could just do the signs, whatever's on the sign, something online. Because the video, I honestly never see what's on the side because it's spinning so fast. No, I know. But use that as a lead in. Sure. Yeah. Good. Tanner in the beginning, price your drinks at a dollar for any size. That's crazy. I didn't know you could get anything for a dollar in this country anymore. Helping draw students from nearby Utah Tech University in 2013, a local news broadcast found customers waiting to get a mango puree, Mountain Dew or Big Al soda. That's interesting. I saw the I don't know if this is a Big Al soda or Big AI soda. So they said. They said a few years ago, Olivia Rodrigo promoted it and it went viral. I thought this business was only a few years old, I guess. No, it's an overnight success. That's pretty remarkable. Yeah. After customers started referring to swigs Dr. Pepper and Cream combination as dirty soda, Tanner latched onto the phrase encouraging customers. They got to pay future royalty. I won't stand by this. They should get future as an influencer. That'd be good. Yeah. He's like, when I said dirty soda, I meant promote. By 2017, Swig had grown to more than a dozen stores. The staff was spread thin, and Tanner realized she lacked the expertise to grow further. She and her husband separated in 2020 rip and is no longer involved in swig. And I hate when I'm just like reading this incredible story of entrepreneurship and then. And then they kind of interrupt the flow there. In 2025, she married Greg Robinson and they continue to live in Utah. It was held together with some duct tape and hairpins, said Andrew Smith, a Utah based investor whose Savory Fund invests. Oh, they took a majority stake. Interesting. They bought that. Very cool. In recent years, Swig has gotten a boost from the cast of the Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, a reality TV show chronicling a group of Utah based TikTok influencers. Interesting. We're at swig so I can tell you exactly what my swig order is. It's sparkling water, sugar free pineapple, sugar free peach, sugar free vanilla raspberry puree with a fresh lime. That's crazy. So over the top. Anyways, what a cool story. Yeah. The Tanner says we're in extreme high growth mode right now. The company estimates it serves over 2,000 drinks at a single conference. The White House has posted biggest period bowl, period, run, period ever, period starting period. Did they post this? Did they post this? Scroll down. Yeah. No. So they're sharing a fake screenshot from True Social. Where do you. Donald Trump says let the gains begin. I mean he really did call the. Bottom at least a local bottom of veracity and truth. No, I'm just saying like if you bought, if you bought Nvidia. If you bought Nvidia when this fake. Post was shared by the real account. But is White House Posts is not even the real account. Right. That's just a fake 14,000 follower account. Everything about this is fake. Everything about and then follow up. I highly recommend you follow White House grandpa. It's like what are we doing here? Very strange. Absolutely. Well do your own research and get on public.com investing for those who take it seriously. Not from fake news on a podcast. Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries and more with great customer service. That isn't fake news. Goldman Sachs is tapping Anthropic's AI model to automate accounting and compliance roles. Embedded Anthropic engineers have spent six months at Goldman building autonomous systems for time intensive high volume back office work. My first one of my first jobs. Bull market and forward deployed engineers for Anthropic. Yeah, yeah. Like it will be funny if, if like True diffusion requires two decades of just millions of consultants working with businesses of all size to implement AI systems. Yeah, probably. I mean the task horizon, every time I see it, six hours. That's amazing. And you were making the comment of like, you know, how many times do you really sit there and spend six hours working autonomously? But there's a different frame which is like a consultant can come in with the, with a goal and work pretty much autonomously for like months. And so there is a world where you know to, to not have an afford deployed engineer in the loop. You need the task horizon to be like years basically. Yeah, yeah. Building a company like takes your whole life. Exactly. Yeah. So keep the doubling going. Which I think puts us back overnight. 2035 word. I think it puts us at like 2035. It's about a decade until you get to like the task horizon is a lifetime is like the average life expectancy of a human. Pull up this article from the Wall Street Journal. Okay, what are we looking at? Which one Anthropic Aura Farm the Journal this week? This is one of the most insane headlines. It's the weak Anthropic tanked the market and pulled ahead of its rivals. Once a distant second or third in the air race, the company is moving to the front with a focus on caution, coding and business clients. Well, they didn't fully oriform because the Journal sort of takes a shot here says Anthropic once appeared as an also RA in the chaotic race for AI supremacy. This week the sophistication of the startup's products upended the stock market. A simple set of industry specific add ons to its CLAUDE product, including one that performed legal services, triggered a days long global stock sell off from software to legal services, financial data and real estate. Then Anthropic unveiled Super bowl ads that taunt rival OpenAI last on Thursday, Anthropic unleashed its most advanced model yet, capable of synthesizing data and analysis, running teams of coding assistants and functions akin to product management. Shares of software companies including Salesforce, Intuit and others fell again Thursday, although less precipitously than earlier in the week. The viral moment for Anthropics models is, quote, the most important thing happening in AI since ChatGPT's launch, said Dean Ball, a senior fellow at the foundation for American Innovation. Who I know Ball, you know him? Everyone knows Ball on this show who writes an artificial intelligence newsletter. Quote it's infinitely interesting. Industry prognosticators and AI evangelists have spent months foretelling the toll Anthropic and others and other sophisticated AI tools would take on software as a service companies that were darlings of the previous Internet era. Tools made by companies such as Workday, Monday.com and Adobe have become the digital backbone for American corporations. Anthropics tools, however, which include agents that can act autonomously to carry out increasingly complex user requests for hours, have have offered a preview of the threat sophisticated AI models pose to entire companies. It's a good, it's a good article. I mean obviously we'll see how fast the diffusion happens. Some of these systems have have things that you cannot simply vibe code. We'll talk to Max Levchin about Is it possible to vibe code a financial software product? A global payments network? Payments network? Can you vibe code a bank charter or money transfer license and I think more and more companies will emerge and there might be a divergence between companies that have moats that are, you know, that are resistant to software based disruption, but then maybe they should trade at a different multiple. So there's sort of a reevaluation of the market broadly. Yeah, you also can with the payment stuff. Again, I'm super excited for us to talk with Max, especially on this week when PayPal is obviously in the news. But you can imagine a world where it does become possible to technically vibe code a global payments network. But various regulators just say like, hey, we're not like we're going to start having requirements. You need to be at least have 100 people on your team. Right. Things like that. That's interesting. You know, basically if you're getting inundated with a bunch of requests of somebody that's like, hey, I started this company a week ago and now I want to be able to process payments state by state, globally, et cetera, people are just going to be like, hey, this is probably not responsible. Let me tell you about Gusto, the unified platform for payroll, benefits and hr. Built to evolve with modern small and medium sized businesses. I want to vibe code a payments platform where when it's payday, a humanoid robot comes around and just does a money spread in your face and just says, here's your cash. That's the future. You don't need to. None of this money transmitted a license. None of these recordings. Money spread. Yeah. Oh, Tyler's got the money spread. Money spread. You're actually quite amateurish at your money spreads. From what I've seen on Instagram, you could. There are levels and you are on level one. You need to learn all the different ones. The money count spread. That's not bad. That's not for anyone watching. But I want to see it. I want to see it go all the way down your arm in an S. Okay. Do not break. Not exposed. Exposed. First time Money spread. Future would be mocking. Rookie Money spread. Rookie claims. Claims to. Claims to love. Claims to know all about dirty soda. Never been to Utah. Never been to Utah. Claims to be able to money spread. Can't do a money spread. Can't do a money spread. Future. Wait, Jordan, do you have like 20 bucks on you? I actually do. Oh, he got you. You're supposed to say, that's what I thought. Yeah, that's what I thought. That's what I thought. He can't even hold his mic now. He can't hold the mic button. Turbo puffer. Serverless Vector and full text search builds from first principles and object storage. Fast 10x cheaper and extremely scalable. Take him at a funny take, he said. Y' all are clowns. Clowns. The Anthropic Legal plugin uses software, it doesn't replace it. In fact, the Cowork legal plugin uses Microsoft 365, Jira, Slack and Box software to accomplish its tasks. No one in Anthropic has replicated any of these applications with ones coded by the company's cloud code agent. Wait, what is this axe that you can put up there? New feature, exit out feature? Yeah. Yes, yes. There are plenty of situations where the token cost of regenerating the software is much lower than just using the software and so people will use the software. Jim Cramer said Anthropics power is so daunting that all they have to do is say they are going into cybersecurity and that's the end of the group. I don't want to be against them, but they are not the all powerful firm that they think they are. Well, we'll talk to Doug o' Oughlin about exactly how powerful Anthropic is and whether he has vibe coded everything in his life or if he is still using an operating system at this point. Who knows? Let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents. Joe Weisenthal shared yesterday. Silver down 19% anthropic must have launched a Silver extension. Yes, it's just chaos in the markets. It's just absolute chaos everywhere. One of the most chaotic weeks of my adult life. Yeah, but it's been lots of green shoots, lots of interesting projects, lots of interesting applications and progress all over the place. Derek Thompson said, for me, the odds that AI is a bubble declined significantly in the last three weeks and the odds that we are actually quite under built for the necessary levels of inference usage went up significantly in that period. Basically AGI pilled. I think AI is going to become the home screen of a ludicrously high percentage of white collar workers in the next two years. And parallel agents will be deployed in the battlefield of knowledge work at downright Soviet levels. And Kevin Roos over at the New York Times, host of the Hard Fork podcast, says this is why everyone was freaking out about Claude Code over winter break. Once you see an agent autonomously doing stuff for you, it's so instantly clear that you all computer based work will be done this way. This is why my serious AI policy proposal is to sit every member of Congress down in a room with laptops for 30 minutes and have them all build websites. Yeah, get a vodka. So we were joking about this yesterday with Sholto. Like, we maybe need more long weekends for AI adoption, but I wouldn't be surprised for a big company to actually do something like this, which is like, hey, we're going to have like a. We're going to have the next Thursday, Friday off. Hackathon. Yeah, basically Congressional hackathon. I mean, Congress is a whole other thing. You got to go to Congress, sit all the Congress people down and get them. Get them vibe coding. What would they build? I feel like they don't use a lot of software, so there's not that much to build. Like, they're so abstracted away from it. It's all lunches and phone calls and dinners and. And meetings. Like, there's not that much that. Actually, this is the thing with, like, openclaw, there's some people asking, like, what are you actually using it for? And people are realizing, like, a lot of my day is not interactive. You know the thing that I wish I could automate? What? My mail at home. Okay, you can do that. Have you seen Earth class mail? There are a few of these virtual mailboxes. It sends it. It sends it. So basically, you forget your home address. You don't share it anywhere on the Internet. You never put it anywhere. You only use this other address. Mine was like, 830 Market street in San Francisco. All of the mail would go there. If it's addressed to me, it gets opened by a robot, scanned, and then you have a web dashboard. But also it just goes to your email, and then you can actually say. So they've been AGI pilled for decades. Decades. No, it was really important. When you set up a business, you use a fake address or one of these virtual mailboxes, and then you can actually click a button, send this to me physically. If it's like a magazine or gift or something, you can say, like, keep this, or you can say, like, shred it. And then you have a virtual representation of it forever. And you could run an agent over it. So maybe that's the next thing you pick up, is a virtual mailbox. That would be good. How does that work, though? There are certain situations where you need your ID to match your utility bill. So you just still. I guess you just still use your home address for utilities, but use anything else or passport. Like, there's usually other ways to Prove residency besides the bills. But also, I don't know if you can actually get the utility bill to not go where the utilities are. Yeah, that's what I was saying. But hopefully the utilities don't leak it. I'm talking about, like, the broad. Like, you know, your address gets on the Internet and then it's just like spam and like, credit card offers and stuff like that. I'm just saying I never want to open up a physical piece of mail again. I want it to come someplace. Have an AI agent like, you know, you get a. You go on a toll road, just pays it automatically, stuff like that. Optimus opens it for you, takes a. Picture, does a money spread. Does a money spread, walks to the post office, mails the next letter, mails the check. This is the Future. Powered by MongoDB. Choose a database built for flexibility and scale. Built with best in class embedding models and re rankers. MongoDB has what you need to build. What's next. It does. Michelangelo drawing just sold for 27.2 million. Let's hit the gong for that. Over 13 times its asking price. We're bringing down the gong. The Renaissance master earned a record. Sound like this sketch of a foot. Let's bring down the gong. Let's hit the gong for the Michelangelo painting. And then we will. Give it a clean hit. Team is. Let's give it up for the team for really dialing in the special effects. Congrats to Michelangelo. Overnight success. Truly Angelo. What do you think, Tyler? Overvalued. Undervalued. 27.2 million. I think I'm gonna have to go with Tyler Cowan. I'm pretty sure on. On Marginal Revolution. I saw this earlier this week. He said way overvalued. Way overvalued. Whoa, whoa. What was. What was the. What was the thesis? I mean, it's not. I'll give you the bear thesis. Look at the picture. It's just like a. Yeah, it's a foot. It's not even like a painting. It's just like a sketch. I think we know what's going on. There's people that are into this stuff. I'm not gonna judge, but it's not me. Not for me. We discovered Michelangelo drawing of a foot sold for 27.2 million at Christie's on Thursday. A record for any work created by the Renaissance master. In a sale likely to kick the art market into high gear, previously unknown red chalk sketch is one of only a handful of Michelangelo's surviving studies still left in private hands. My AI diffusion model could do this. That's the new phrase. My kid couldn't do this, but my AI diffusion model certainly could. This is not that impressive. Not a 27, maybe at 5. Give me a break. The 5 inch drawing depicts the right foot of the Libyan Sibyl, a blonde prophetess from wearing a creamsicle gown painted onto the tribal ceiling of the eastern end. Let's get the feet off of the stool. Feet out of here. Moving on, back to business. Citrini says in response to Opus 46. I have not shied away from buying scary dips. Neither has been on our team. Producer Ben always buys the dip. Buying tech in 2022 is scary. Yes. As it's. It's really good that buy the dip is like so like the back people have. It's really the backbone because freak out and sell everything would really be bad for our capital market. Yes, yes. Okay. So buying tech in 2022 is scary, as were banks. After SVB, I bought plenty of stocks when Covid seemed like potentially the end of the world. But this doesn't really seem like an overreaction in software. If anything, it's delayed. It's a rational response that isn't even trying to front run the capability improvement. The capability is here. I respect anyone who is actually smart enough to know who survives and thrives. I just don't think I can foresee that far ahead right now. And Gary Basin has a devil's advocate. I think the bottleneck will still be knowing the details, what to build, which depend on what your customers need, not even necessarily what they say they want. I use these tools daily to close to close to their full power. And they're amazing. But the flashy demos are all examples of extremely precisely specified tasks in example rich domains, build a compiler, build a web browser, et cetera. These have very specific rules on what success entails. And I've seen like the Gastown, one of the big demo projects was like re platforming some open source software to Rust. And it's like, that's pretty verifiable from start to finish. If you're looking at like build a new social network, it's like, okay, how do you get distribution? Distribution is still really, really important. Like you can vibe code stuff, but driving traffic is harder than ever. What do you think, Tyler? I just need to clear something. So before I said Tyler, Cowen was talking about Michelangelo. Yeah, Michelangelo. That was incorrect. He was actually talking about a Rembrandt. Oh, a sketch. Okay, it was 20 million. 20 million. But that one. Okay. Okay. Thank you for the. Thank you. Thank you for the fact check really quickly. Restream 1 livestream 30 plus destinations. If you want to multi stream go to restream.com Wall Street Logic right now says Chris Camillo. Punish big tech for wasting capex on AI. Punish SaaS because AI will replace them and punish GPU manufacturers for selling the chips that power the waste. Sell everything. Sell your dollars. Remember to lock up your capital in late stage. Private companies at the tops. Says base 316Z that I think. I think it's been deleted. I can't see it but I can see the screen. Really good post. Anyway, the Fear greed index is at 5 out of 100. Extreme fear. Extreme fear. Yeah. I mean good timing. Freak out and sell everything. This is Lindy. He posted this last night. Yeah, 4,000 got a rally. I think this might have turned the tide. This might have turned it. He did it anyway. Cisco Critical infrastructure for the AI era unlocks seamless and real time experiences and new value with Cisco. Thoma Bravo Managing partner Holden Spat says, I just finished a week of board meetings with several of our portfolio companies and their strong results in growth and profitability seem to be, in my view, another piece of evidence against the overwrought headlines that AI is eating software. Anaplan bottom line, Coupa Dayforce and Jeppesen Foreflight are navigating the AI transition quite well with Q4 bookings, growth of 22% on average and high margins. Let's go. These are large companies operating $1 billion revenue scale, not small startups. And the growth numbers look to be accelerating, not decelerating. That kind of growth doesn't square with the notion that enterprise customers are cutting software spend so they have more money for new applications. We don't view our portfolios companies as being caught in an either or zero sum competition like that. They're building and integrating AI functionality into their products and customers are voting with their dollars. Systems of transitioning, systems of record with powerful AI and agent capabilities built to enterprise requirements and workflows have shown themselves to be quite capable of profitable growth. And I believe the value of profitable growth will endure in the face of technological change. Let's go. Not biased at all, but I think this is what we want to see, right? 6 months ago Google was considered disrupted. Now it's accelerating. Today SaaS is considered disruptive. Now SaaS is accelerating. Let's see. Certainly not time to take your foot off the gas. If you're building a SaaS company, you got to figure out how to survive, how to thrive in the age of AI. Can't be asleep at the wheel. You got to be building, you got to be innovating. You got to know your value, you got to know you want to know what really makes your company valuable. Tom Dale says, I don't know why this week became the tipping point, but nearly every software engineer I've talked to is experiencing some degree of mental health crisis. I saw another post in the same vein from somebody saying, well, at least we're getting it over with before everyone else, right? Software engineers might be prepared for a new reality just because they're probably closer to the beginning of the wave. Justine Moore has the other side of it. She says, I love how everyone is saying SaaS is dead. Like you're going to get the Fortune 500 to ditch Salesforce for a CRM vibe coded by a 13 year old. And Matt Levine says, what's kind of funny is that people on this website have internalized, quote, you hire McKinsey for air cover and a throat to choke if things go down go wrong, but they haven't internalized you higher. Salesforce, Workday and Atlassian for very similar, albeit not identical reasons. And there's some disagreement. Montag says that's not even remotely true and Matt Levine says wrong. This is the other Matt Levine, by the way. This is not the Bloomberg writer. This is a software guy with some finance thrown in. He's been at a 16Z and JP Morgan. Let me tell you about console.com consul builds AI agents that automate.

Accomplish its tasks. No one in Anthropic has replicated any of these applications with ones coded by the companies called Code Agent. What is this X that you can put up there? New feature. Just X it out. New feature. Yeah. Yes.

We're bricked up. We're going into databricks territory. It's gonna be fantastic. We also might have a surprise guest for you folks. Anyway, linear, of course, is the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise workspaces on LINEAR are using agents. Get on there, folks. Big week. Bottlenecks, bottlenecks. I mean, we're gonna talk about the Claude Code moment, the Claude Code psychosis, sort of the software singularity. Doug o' Laughlin's coming on to talk about his experience, why he thinks this is a key inflection point. Tyler Cowen was talking about this with the 5.3 launch Opus 4.6 launch. Like, there's clearly signs of a takeoff. It feels like a slow takeoff, but there's a whole bunch of sort of recursive compounding elements that are starting to form a. Recursive? You say recursive? Literally recursive. Like you like the models feedback into themselves, give them more tasks. We saw this with Gastown. There's a whole bunch of stuff, stuff going on in orchestration that's interesting. And so I wanted to sort of reflect on like, if there's going to be a break, if there's going to be a damper on the party, if someone's going to pull away the punch bowl, who's it going to be, the semiconductor industry or the energy industry? At the start of this year, I said it was going to be the year of energy. I still think it's important to think about energy because that it will be a bottleneck. But this year, and not even just. Because of AI, just for overall human flourishing. Totally. Totally. Yeah. And yeah. So we had some great conversations this week. Sam Altman, we talked to Dylan Patel, we talked to Sholto, we talked to, you know, we reviewed what Ben Thompson was saying. Dwarkesh interviewed Elon. So there's a lot of new data points about how people are thinking about the trade offs between semiconductor fabrication capacity and energy production capacity. So I wanted to sort of like crystallize like where I think the debate and consensus is, is right now. So first I'll tell you about Okta. OKTA helps you assign every AI agent a trusted identity. So you get the power of AI without the risk. Secure every agent, secure any agent with Okta. So there's been this like TikTok going back and forth in the AI supply chain. What's the key bottleneck to growth? It does feel like only if you, you have to work at an AI lab to really feel the bottleneck for most people they're just like, I open the chat app, probably chatgpt. I ask it a question, it gets back to me in a reasonable amount of time. I'm not really hitting rate rate limits. The rate limits come when there's big moments. The Studio Ghibli moment. Have always felt the rate limiting is very real with using anthropic products. Yes. If you're. If you're. Which is why I asked Schultz yesterday. Yeah. How. What are. What are free limits going to. That's why you asked him that. It was just random that you asked. Well, I was always interested in the context of. Yes, it was completely in the context of compute. No, but they've consistently been compute constrained. At least they've talked about it more than most, and users have talked about it quite a lot. So I'm just quite curious, what is the free experience going to be like Sunday if somebody downloads the app, sees the ads, they're like, I want LLMs without ads. Even though no other popular LLM actually has ads yet. But I do wonder. Yeah. About the. About the Claude app experience. They're pretty upfront with you about the fact that if you're on the Opus model, like, you'll hit your rate limits faster and even just a couple prompts deep, it will take a second and kind of compact the conversation so it can keep talking to you. Like, I know they're increasing the token context window, but they're like, it feels like it works fine, but it is a smaller user base. Although I'm very interested to see where it goes in the App Store. ChatGPT is still at number one. Grok is oddly doing incredible in the App Store. Way higher than Axe, the social networking app store. Yeah. For no obvious reason. I mean, like, there's just not a lot of hype about Grok. Like, they're doing okay on benchmarks. Obviously. Elon has a very solid playbook for, like, scaling and hype. Yeah. But to me, growing, I don't care as much about hype. Yeah. When it comes to the App Store, there's plenty of apps on the App Store charts that have no hype. One of the top is called Free Cash. Free Cash, it's number two. But that one above Gemini, I understand why. That one is Free Cash. Get paid real money. Yeah. Hot on ChatGPT's heel. Yeah. Well, let me tell you about Figma. Figma make isn't your average vibe coding tool. It lives in Figma, so outputs look good, feel real, and stay connected to how teams build. I would say Code back prototypes and apps. It's part of, you know, we have the OpenAI Elon lawsuit as part of that. What if part of the settlement agreement is OpenAI has to give4.0 to Grok? I mean, they might just wind up. Yesterday was seriously one of the craziest experiences if you weren't watching our Sam interview live. And honestly, the entire show. Yeah, there was thousands of messages from people from 4O soldiers saying, Keep 4O. Keep 4. Zero. Yeah. Keep 4O throwing hashtags. You don't see hashtags no. That much anymore. But they were throwing hashtags around. Keep 4.0. Yeah. So I think maybe if Elon can negotiate for that. Thank you to the TVPN army, the day ones. We will never switch up on you. We'll never let the money change us. We'll never forget where we came from. Yeah. Bobby was going to. You guys in the chat were doing overtime work, keeping things somewhat sane. There's not much you can do in that situation. Interestingly, a lot of people were saying, oh, is it bots? Because there is this world where, okay, if you're playing really, really dirty, you could be a different lab and you could say, okay, this 4.0 thing, maybe it's a little bit of a deal, but I could amplify it with some fake bots that post more, generate extra content. It's very easy to generate a slop post that sounds like a 4.0-deranged person. And then you could just amplify it and it would all of a sudden look like, oh, wow, there's millions of people that are affected by this. But I don't think they were bots in the chat. The messages looked human to me. They weren't copy paste. We get spam in the chat every once in a while. We get this spam for a company that wants to route us to a specific URL to buy stream viewers, basically fake our account. And so that bot knows, go around and find live streams all over Twitch and pitch the Twitch streamers. Fake bots that will watch the stream to help them climb the charts. So. So that business model makes sense for those people. You have to do, like, seven other steps to get to the point where, like, okay, you're a rival lab and you don't like OpenAI, and you're trying to create a headache for them. So you create all these bots and then you have to have the bots ready to rock on a YouTube chat that you had an hour notice for, like, that's pretty hard to set up all these YouTube accounts. It's not like the Fred and bot. Say you're not, say you're not open claw pill. Okay, okay, maybe it's possible. But it didn't feel like they were bots. And I think the chat agrees. Four hours telling these people, save me. Yeah. So there was a Reddit group that shared the streamlinks. So they all came here. There were some bots, but it felt pretty crazy. And yeah, it'll be interesting to see 4.0 is fully going offline. It's already very hard to reach. You have to go into turn on legacy models and the. It's going offline right around Valentine's day. I think February 13th. And I don't know how they'll respond. In truth, it feels odd to me because it does seem like you can get the 4.0 experience elsewhere with a fine tuned open source model or, or prompt engineering, but the 4.0 fans really care about that specifically. I think there's some sort of parasocial relationship even with the ui, with the app, with everything that's going on. They feel like it's not something that's perfectly replicable elsewhere, which is just like, it's just a fascinating, weird time that I don't think we've ever seen. Because people were upset when Facebook launched the feed and they were like, we want to go back and, and they made these groups and the groups got a lot of application, ironically because some. People were upset when Microsoft stopped investing as heavily into Clippy. That's true, that's true. But I was never logging onto a Twitch stream and saying I got bring back Clippy. And people. Yeah. The notable thing is they didn't seem to be able to process that it wasn't just a show about Sam because even after Sam had left, they just kept going. Yeah. Which was very, very strange. Yeah, yeah. Anyways, I hope all of those people are to find peace and hopefully help in real life. Yeah, yeah. Very odd. Anyway, back to the bottleneck. Back to someone that's helping unblock the bottleneck. Railway. Railway is the all in one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agent to deploy web apps, servers, databases, and I gotta issue a slight correction. Wow. Automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring and security. I think Railway is actually contributing to the. Potentially, to the demand. Potentially. But that's, you know, it's important work. Anyway, so right now it feels like chips are the more important piece of the bottleneck to talk about. Sam Altman put it this way, I asked him like chips versus energy what's the bigger bottleneck right now? He says it goes back and forth, but right now it's chips. It's different at different times. It may get solved on its own, normal capitalism may solve it. But I think somehow deciding as a society that we are going to increase the wafer capacity of the world and we're going to fund that and we're going to get the whole supply chain and the talented people who make that happen would be a very good thing to do. And so why do we have a chip bottleneck to begin with? Semiconductors have been doubling and, you know, we've been on this Moore's Law curve. What's interesting is that the semiconductor industry should be better equipped to avoid a bottleneck because it's already been on an exponential, whereas energy production has just been like flat, sort of like a malaise for a long time. Getting on, getting that unstuck is hard, but I think that's a problem for 2027, potentially. So the chip bottleneck comes down to consolidation. Power plants, data centers, cooling technology. There's a bunch of suppliers in each of these industries and you can parallelize them and you can steer resources from adjacent areas to focus on AI projects specifically. Even a company like Boom Supersonic can turn into a turbine manufacturer. And there's a lot of other industries that are able to move over. And Dylan Patel gave us some extra, extra context there. So he said the semiconductor industry is used to doubling the amount of transistors made every year or two. Part of that is more advanced nodes, part of that's more capacity. Whereas the energy industry in America wasn't built for that kind of growth. So initially people weren't creative. They were like, let's build these combined cycle gas plants. But now we've realized, yes, there are three main manufacturers of turbines. And for dual combined cycle, you've got IGTs, but you've also got medium speed reciprocating engines. Turns out Cummins can make about a million diesel diesel engines a year and those can generate electricity. I don't if I don't care about aesthetics and I put them in West Texas easy. And so there's all these different areas where you can reallocate. You can't just take an Intel CPU and do anything useful in AI with it. It's just like Elon. Also on Cheeky Pint with Dorkash and John Collison. John talked about the Tesla team adapting. He thinks they'll have to actually make turbine blades because they can get a lot of the other Components, but they may have to actually make those. Yeah. So back to the leading edge fabs. It's a completely different beast. These fabs cost tens of billions. 30, 50, 75, 80 billion I've seen to build. And it takes three, four, sometimes five years to go from breaking ground to actually getting up to producing volume. And we have like the perfect example of this because TSMC announced a plant in Arizona in 2020. And in 2025 it's still not producing at volume. It's doing really well. It's great. But that's five years. And it's not just like, oh yeah, it's as effective as what's in Taiwan. And so ASML is the only viable producer of EUV lithography machines. And so there's this bottleneck within the chip bottleneck, which is the TSMC supplier ASML. And they ship around 50 EUV machines per year, maybe 5060. Each one cost $350 million. And, and leading edge fabs need dozens. So if you want to build a bunch more fabs, you need a bunch more tool makers. And ASML has its own supply chain for different lenses and glass and all sorts of stuff. They work with Zeiss Trump, whole bunch of different companies. And that supply chain is not very diversified. So you have another bottleneck even deeper in the supply chain. And so all these vendors are highly specialized. And then even after you get the fab built, there's still at least a year of processing engineering, maybe 12 to 18 months, where you actually work to get to high yield production. We're seeing that in TSM Arizona. And TSMC just has decades of intellectual capital locked in the heads of engineers that they can't easily transfer or parallelize. And so this has made TSMC the real bottleneck. Hyperscalers are pushing capex numbers into hundreds of billions of dollars. We'll talk about this more in the show. But the supply curve for leading edge wafers is relatively inelastic. There's also this bullwhip effect when during COVID we weren't shipping cars. So a bunch of people cut back on demand and so that pull things back. And it takes years for these to work through. Then you get over capacity, everyone demands way more. And then you over expand and then you collapse and it's this constant. And the further out you are in the supply chain, the more the bullwhip affects you. So TSMC controls 90% of the advanced node market, with Samsung and Intel far behind. And this is why Ben Thompson, aside from the geopolitical concerns about TSMC is really urging tech companies to wake up. And so he says the reality that hyperscalers and fabless chip companies need to wake up to, however, is that avoiding the risk of working with someone other than TSMC incurs new risks that are both harder to see and also more substantial. So there's a huge risk if you say, you know what, I'm going to go and place a huge order with Samsung or Intel or I'm going to take a huge risk and be the anchor customer of their new cutting edge, leading edge fab. But Ben Thompson saying there's a risk to not doing that. And he says except again, we can see the harms already foregone revenue today as demand outstrips supply. Today's shortages, however may prove to be peanuts. If AI has the potential these companies claim it does, future foregone revenue at the end of the decade is going to cost exponentially more surely a lot more than whatever is necessary expense wise to to make Samsung or Intel into viable competitors for tsmc. You really got to wonder what conversations are like between Jensen and TSMC right now given that it just doesn't feel. I mean Taiwan is. TSMC is not. They're certainly not going out and making kind of going risk on. Right. They're staying relatively probably more conservative than some of their downstream customers would like. Pop quiz. Do you know where TSMC is listed? The New York Stock Exchange. Want to change the world? Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. Just do it. Just be like TSMC. Just build a $1.5 trillion semiconductor company. That would be nice. We need more of these. We do anyway. Let's move on to the hyperscalers compound. 248 says poor Jassy. Andy Jassy. He's going to learn something about Amazon today. When Google announces a crazy number, it's because it's playing offense. But when Amazon announces a crazy number, it's because it's playing defense. Ipso facto. So Amazon said it will spend $200 billion this year on AI build out. This is from Bloomberg. But this is worrying investors that the company's colossal bet on artificial intelligence will pinch profits.