LIVE CLIPS
EpisodeĀ 2-24-2026
Determined to make it happen. Do you think that there's a world where the AI backlash is less if the big labs got out earlier? I'm just thinking about the average American can't get allocation in SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI and they're seeing bills go up and they're worried about AI, but they don't have exposure. And if they could at least see that they're somewhat allocated to the home. Yeah, in the same way housing prices going up sucks until you buy a house. The way you describe it sounds more like how a politician would describe it than how I actually think it would. Mike play I don't know that there are that many retail investors out there going, oh, my job's under threat from AI. I wish I could own anthropic. Well, isn't that part of, isn't that part of why. I mean this sort of fear based fundraising approach that the lab, you know, some of the labs have taken where if somebody's telling you your job's going to go away, of course you want to give them as much money as you can as a hedge. I don't. Look, there's an interesting irony that if you wanted AI exposure, you're pretty good just owning the index. Nvidia is such a large part of the index. You have exposure to Microsoft and Google and Facebook. Like I don't know that you need to be in that place. And we are now already at a place. I would say, you know, every time there's a new technology wave, people get rich quick. When people get rich quick, speculators come in, Charlton, you know, those kind of things. And eventually that leads to a bubble. People are confused when they think, you know, they say, oh you, you say it's a bubble, you're anti aid. No, the fact that it's real causes the bubble and that's why bulls rush. In the beginning of the gold rush there was really gold there. They were finding, you know, it got speculative and so it will get speculative. I think it would be really ironic if we, you know, invite retail investors into a Goldman led SPV of open air anthropic right before the Reese, which I think would be the most likely thing that would happen. Sure, sure. What are you thinking about around China? As of today, February 2026, we have distill gate this week. A lot of people are talking about it, but.
Just maybe you'll land or start a fund that takes it really seriously and creates some, some captured value or teams. You know, I was probably overly skeptical of at least many of the crypto messages that were out there, but the, the stablecoin rail seem like a real, real innovation and something that has scale. And I think maybe we're still yet to see some disruption coming down the path. Yeah, I mean, we just talked to the Collisons about that. Ken Griffin started as a day trader.
Thing once people start playing with it at scale. So you're training on video frames 30fps video, correct? Yeah. I was told by an anonymous poster on X by the name of Rune that text, in fact is the universal interface. Was I lied to? Yes. Whoa. Shots fired. Explain. Elaborate. Why doesn't this just collapse down to text? Why don't I puppeteer CAD from text? How does this all play together? Okay, I think it is at some point in the arbitrarily long future, if we only use text models, we could force most things to be text. I think there are just a lot of things that are much more native when done from a computer use. GUIs are designed for humans. They're designed for humans to use. We have this massive long tail of things on the Internet that are not entirely undoable by LLMs. For example, when I do ML engineering, because most of my time is not spent. Most of my time is just spent doing this grunt work of engineering. And it's a lot of looking at graphs and analyzing graphs and figuring out comparing loss curves or something. And you can do this in text, but it's just a much larger pain than doing it in this kind of native interface, which is video. And I don't know, there's a reason why humans don't interact with the computer purely through text. It would kind of suck. For example, we have like, the concept of like, video has the concept of time in a way that text doesn't. Speak for yourself. I got text right here, black background going. If this can eliminate YouTube tutorials for software, that's a killer app. Is this. Yeah, is.
The thing I was thinking about was there's this whole idea that you'll be able to build your own CRM or your own ERP and vibe code it. And open source CRMs exist. There's one called Suite CRM. There's ODO, there's ERPnext, there's plain for Task Management, Open Project Redmine. There are open source alternatives to almost every piece of software. There's. There's an open source Photoshop that people use on Linux and they've never really gotten adoption. I use an open source forum software for a while and very quickly I called the person that was maintaining it and was like, I'll pay 1000 bucks to just like do this for me. And then they became a managed service very quickly. And there's an open source capybara simulator. Is that open source? No, but, but it's interesting because like, like open source has always been this pressure on SaaS and it's always withstood that. And like, yeah, maybe like if you can just prompt it. And it feels like emailing your SaaS provider to reconfigure things like that is a real pressure. But I think it's underrated that open source CRMs have existed for decades and never really taken off because there's something else that's valuable there. But Tyler has a roof because he thinks everything's going to get slopped. I think that's like mostly cope. Okay, explain the comp to open source stuff. It's just annoying to maintain. So no one ever does it and you're kind of just paying whoever to maintain it, right? Well, no, no, no, no. In open source like you don't need to pay someone to maintain it. You can just use the open source version of the open source thing. It's like you're basically paying someone to maintain it. Yeah, yeah. Host it, manage it, do all these things, make sure uptimes. But like models keep getting better and they'll just like do all that. Do that for you. They'll do all that for you. And I think that's very obvious. Yeah. It is possible that you would just say like, okay, run in a loop and just go around and fix everything and if there's uptime or security patches, patch them immediately. The open source gets better. There's two.
Around and fix everything and if there's uptime or security patches like patch them immediately. Well, the open source software gets better. There's two narratives, right? There's the okay, everyone will just vibe code everything in any department. Yeah, you can just have an employee just make the software tell the agent not to make mistakes and, or tell the agent, hey, fix this thing. So that's, that's one thing and I feel like that is a maybe a part of the sell off. But the bigger reason for the sell off is maybe what Derek Thompson is talking about, which is that like the world is getting weirder. You, a lot of people are feeling the acceleration and if you just don't know what the world looks like or what work looks like in five years, you want to take some risk off, you're not willing to pay the same revenue multiple that you were three years ago. Yeah, I do.
Pizza. Good memories. A very large fraction of the banana market, don't forget. So we punch above our weight in fruits that don't grow there. There we go. There we go. I love pizza. The round is exciting. The overall growth of volume is exciting. But we wanted to hit the gong for how many books you guys are selling. Oh yeah. Can you give us the numbers there? Scale that. Operation Stripe Press just. Well, actually we announced in the letter we sold our millionth book. But in fact since. Incredible. No, the book books. We've actually now sold our 1.1 millionth book. So. But we'll do that for the next Ganga too. But it's great. We love books and they're very AGI proof. Oh yeah. No, we've been a huge fan of so much of the Stripe Press catalog. I haven't read them all, but I'm collecting them one at a time and I'm working through them and every time, one drop. It's always a moment and we love them. So thank you for everything. Yeah. Great to have you guys on and congratulations to the whole team on Incredible. TVPN is an amazing startup and it's super cool to see you guys.
Mispriced and and and made a bunch of money and then grew it into a massive team with a fund and high frequency trading arm and all this stuff. What are you making? Oh yeah, I'm just going to say the thing that will differentiate you more in your career than anything else is to be the most hyper curious person that that's trying to do this thing and, and once again that's, that's put on steroids with these AI tools. But if you are the most curious person that's constantly learning in your field you will do extremely well. And I said it in the book but I'll say it here, I can't make you the most talented person in your, in your, you know, company or your group or your field but you have no excuse not to be the most knowledgeable person because the information's all out there. What kind of, what kind of things were you doing to learn about industries and companies you know, in the beginning of your venture?
To find entry prices on some of these companies. Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, it feels like a lot of the book is about finding a career. And I feel like that will resonate specifically with people who are nervous with me. Because when I was thinking about when John and I first met, we had both built some companies, we both invested in some companies, but we were trying to find our life's work, and it was such a. It's such a pain. Like, that period where you're searching is if you're a high agency person, you like doing a lot of things. It can be deeply painful because you're like, I want to be productive. I want to be making the number go up. But I don't have a number right now. And if you had asked either of us when we first met, hey, would you ever think about broadcast media? Would you ever think about being in front of a camera? Both of us, you know, John had made some YouTube videos, but it was just for fun. And if a big, you know, if a network like CNBC had said, hey, would you guys consider, you know, hosting a show? He would have been like, yeah, like, like honored. But no way. That never imagined. And then you sort of just. And so as somebody who, like, wants a lot of control over their life and their destiny and, like, feels like they have historically have had control, that period of just, like searching is like, Is. Is painful. And I feel like a lot of the book is. Is helping people through that moment. So in some ways, when I got our copy, I was like, wow, I really wish I had this two years ago. I'd like to go back to the phrase you used of high agency. I think that one of the problems that has kind of evolved is that our common college pathway has actually become more restrictive. And I think there's less agency. And kids are being encouraged. They have to sign up for a major before they ever go to the college. They get stuck on these pathways, and there's not a lot of exploration. There's not a lot of search for creativity or obsession or the kind of thing that really gets you going. And I think the journey you went on is perfectly fine. I think that's another thing which is letting it be okay for people to bounce around and see what they can find, because once they latch on, and we have examples in the book where that doesn't happen till 40. Sometimes it's at 30, sometimes it's. I didn't become a venture capitalist until I was 30, and that was clearly my dream job. And the first two stops were fine and interesting and building blocks towards that. So I think that is part of the message, is to get comfortable with that and give people permission to do that type of exploration. Yeah. Enzo. Enzo Ferrari. Estee Lauder. I think the Red Bull founder, too. All were, I think, in their 40s when they started their companies. And so there's this intense pressure in our industry and everywhere to figure out a job and then attach your, you know, make your entire identity that job. And it's so. It's so constrictive. Yeah. Yes. And I circle back to the first question, just about this AI stuff that's out there. I think there's this massive picture.
Projects that they can go and take on immediately. But the very next thing that they say is then like, okay, how do I pull the rest of my roadmap forward? How do I build even more and get even more out to people? And I think in reality we all just have so much more software to build. Yeah. How are you thinking about AI progress broadly? It feels like a lot of people are feeling that recursive development is on the horizon. People are bringing up takeoff speeds again, migrating from slow, maybe fast. I was backing off, now it's a little quicker. How are you, how are you trying to zoom out, reset, get to reality, figure out how fast things are actually moving? Yeah, no, I mean the meter report shows the consistent doublings and everything. I mean, I think it's a very. I think things are continuing on the exponential curve. I wouldn't say that they're going either super exponential or sub exponential. I think they're roughly going on that exponential curve. But exponential curve is a lot. That's a very fast growth. Obviously. I think for us, one of the things that's been pretty interesting is just noticing each of the step function changes that happen for us. For example, it's definitely been in the last, I'll call it four or five months where something interesting happened, which is we stopped typing code at some point. You just don't before, obviously you have all the tools and you have the combination of things and so on. Now it's. There's different experiences, there's different tools that you want to have, obviously between the IDE and the CLI and the web agent and so on. But either way you're really just working in prompts and you're not really the code that we check into. GitHub. How much of it was typed by a human at this point? I think almost none. Maybe one of the things I would just call it is that as you expose each new thing, if you think of it as a profiler on your own software engineering workflow, what is the most expensive part? You shrink that down, you get to the next thing, you shrink that down and you just make the whole cycle more effective. We're at the point where a lot of these other things like understanding the code base and review and so on are the actual bottlenecks. Right. Testing is another big one. And I think what we're going to see over the next little bit is you're basically going to have to solve each of those with really good product experiences, really good model capabilities and so on. So maybe the only thing that I would say, I think the exponential curve continues. I would just call out that the form factor looks very different as you continue on that exponential curve because you're actually solving different problems. Yes, I think we will continue to get the doublings and the doublings, but now it looks a lot more like how do we optimize testing and review and planning, not how do we make the AI good at writing code based on the prompt that you give? Because at this point, frankly, it's basically already done. Yeah, I have a bunch more questions. I'll be quick. I have two for.
Fusion. Talk to us about distillgate, how you've been processing it. Have you worked at all yet? It's a sign of success. Any points in your career were you experimenting with this stuff? Is this something that we kind of forced the Chinese market into spending a lot of resources on? I mean, it makes sense, right? That was always going to happen. I think the moment you put it out there and you give API access to the world, that that's going to happen and people are going to copy you. I mean, we've been doing distillation in the research community for a long time and so people have been experimenting and figuring out ways to do it in a, in a simple, efficient way. So I'm not surprised that it's happening. I think it's hard to know at what scale and honestly from the numbers that they were circulating, it seems like they are able to do it with very, very few data points. That was the most surprising thing to me. It's very interesting scientifically that you can actually distill with so few data points because it means that it's going to be very, very hard to protect any IP if you are opening the model up from an API point of view. So the last question, somewhat related to that, I feel like when these models get distilled we see very strong benchmark performance and then some yet to be quantified and benchmarked quality sort of degrades. And you hear people that actually try and put them into production saying like, it just doesn't have the same like big model flavor that I'm getting from the big labs. I don't know how real that is, but I'm wondering, if you zoom out and you look at, and you look at diffusion versus transformer based LLMs, are you noticing any divergence in the benchmarks where.
Or so continue. The thing I was thinking about was there's this whole idea that you'll be able to build your own CRM or your own ERP and vibe code it. And open source CRMs exist. There's one called Suite CRM. There's ODO, there's ERPnext, there's plain for Task Management, Open Project Redmine. There are open source alternatives to almost every piece of software. There's an open source Photoshop that people use on Linux and they've never really gotten adoption. I used an open source forum software for a while and very quickly I called the person that was maintaining it and was like, I'll pay 1000 bucks to just like do this for me. And then it became a managed service very quickly. There's an open source Capybara simulator. Is that open source? No, but it's interesting because open source has always been this pressure on SaaS and it's always withstood that. And like, yeah, maybe like if you can just prompt it. And it feels like emailing your SaaS provider to reconfigure things like that is a real pressure. But I think it's underrated that open source CRMs have existed for decades and never really taken off because there's something else that's valuable there. But Tyler has a. He thinks everything's gonna get slopped. I think.
Ramp up the supply chain in order to be able to deliver gigawatts a year of volume, which is a massive volume to be able to deliver. Yeah. When you were initially thinking of starting the company, pitching it to investors early on, how did you answer the question around Nvidia's various moats or kind of strategic advantages? Think Cuda, all that stuff? Yeah, I think it's really interesting. Like Cuda is for Nvidia, simultaneously the biggest strategic advantage and also a constraint because their promise that they make you is that you can take a Cuda program written 10 years ago and it will run on the next generation Nvidia gpu. Jensen goes on stage and promises this. It is so valuable for them. And yet at the same time, it means the next generation GPU has to look just like the GPU from 10 years ago. So it means things like the numerics can't change the way the cores in the chip are connected to each other, can't change the actual memory architecture can't substantially change. All of these things are kind of locked in by the programming model that they designed more than a decade ago for general purpose parallelism. And so this is where we've seen the biggest differentiation. If they wanted to say, well, we're going to completely give up our Cuda approach and start a new generation of chips, maybe they could do that. They would lose all of this lock in that they have, but then at least they would be on a level playing field with us. But that's not what we see really. We see them being committed to their trajectory. The Cuda lock in is very valuable for sort of the mid and tail of the market where people are so sensitive to the software cost. But really at the head of the market in the Frontier labs, the software is not the main cost, the hardware is the main cost. And so if you're willing to rewrite your software, maybe you can actually switch to a more efficient hardware like us. Getting easy to rewrite software. As you plan your business, how are you thinking about bottlenecks?
Things that you can have in your own products. As a result, you guys have had a ton of success in enterprise. The chat wants us to ask for your take on the SaaS apocalypse. I imagine some of the conversations that you're having with, let's say, the CTO of a massive company, are they thinking about using a Devon for things like big database migrations? How are they thinking about how agents can, can impact their dependency on. On sort of these, like legacy tools and systems of record? Yeah, I mean, there's the whole Trinity report and everything. I mean, it was honestly ridiculous. That's my two cents on it. I think the, like, look, at a high level, of course, yeah, AI is going to change a lot of stuff. I don't really understand how you go from that to saying that there's going to be, you know, like, take software as a good example. Software is one of the most deflationary things ever. You know, a lot of the same products that, that, you know, used to cost much more 10, 20 years ago have gotten much, much cheaper over time. Right. Has this been terrible for software company? You know, I mean, it seems like it's been pretty good. All the big companies in the world are still software companies. Right. And so I think there's like, there's one thing when prices go down because, you know, the demand's just not there anymore. And obviously you can get into weird cycles and all that can happen. But it's a totally different thing if prices go down because we've just gotten way better at supplying things. And that's when you get Jevons Paradox and that's when you get just mass consumer surplus and so on and so at a high level, I mean, I think there's all the customers that we work with, banks and health insurers and private equity and so on. I mean, they're obviously like a lot of these base migration modernization projects that they can go and take on immediately, but the very next thing that they say is then like, okay, how do I pull the rest of my roadmap forward? How do I build even more and getting more out to people? And I think in reality we all just have so much more software to build. Yeah. How are you thinking about AI progress?
Yeah, I expect there to be a lot of native norl just prior of doing the self correction thing properly. You can get it to go do something for 10 minutes and it'll try something for two minutes and then mess up slightly, but it knows how to fix that over and over again until it's gotten to a song state. Yep. Very cool. Well, congratulations on the launch and thanks for taking the time to come chat with us. Thank you for sport coding. We're going to get some. We need some sport coats around the office. We need something in between. You got John over here. Formal. I'm doing casual Friday on a Tuesday, but a sport coat perfectly in the middle. It was great to meet you and come back on soon. Thank you. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. Goodbye. Well, back to the timeline. There was an individual who accidentally gained control of 7,000 DJI vacuums. He was just vibe coding. Amazing. And accidentally found, according to Investment Hulk, the CCP backdoor. He wanted. This is why. Control it with a gaming controller. And then he just. He got control of everything. That's so crazy. This is why I've been deeply concerned with letting any. Any foreign adversary flood our country with a bunch of robots. We should avoid it. I thought this was funny earlier. Hagseth says he'll order random pizzas to throw off the monitoring app. Oh, yeah. I expected something like this to happen. It's kind of silly that everyone has a dashboard up and can tell when things might be getting a little more tense in the Pentagon. So, yeah, give them a budget of, you know, a few hundred thousand dollars a year and just order pizzas at random times. For the record, this is a joke and he is joking, but I do. I do think they could throw it off, potentially. You never know. They could throw it around. HubSpot acquired Starter Story. Yeah, this is very exciting. Very cool. Yeah. Starter Story. Overnight success decade. He's been doing this. I believe Pat, the founder, had just posted. Yeah, he posted something. He was like, subset or. He said, HubSpot should acquire starter story. And then like two weeks later it was done. We really. Oh, I thought that was from, like, years ago. Oh, maybe it was. I thought. I thought he posted that a long time ago and then. Yeah, he said. No, he said September 23, 2025. So. Oh, well, not long. Yeah, a couple, six months ago. Months. HubSpot should acquire Starter Story. The SEO ship is sinking. In my opinion, HubSpot needs to pivot way harder to video. Specifically YouTube. Yeah, I'm biased, but acquiring Starter Story would take their YouTube game to the next level, and I love it. He was quoting Brian co founder saying, dear Founders, it's a good time to sell your company. Brian. Anyways, there's a bunch more stuff in here, but we will get to it tomorrow. Arena Mag is out. Go check out issue number seven. They're on substack now. Arenamagazine.substack.com go check it out. And one more post for you. Deep Dish Enjoyer says, I don't see what the point of shoveling Snow is when AI agents are going to commoditize burrito taxi services by 2028. Good excuse. Leave us 5 stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Subscribe to our newsletter@tppn.com have the best evening of your entire life. We love you. Goodbye.
Capex or they have, they have low gross margins, they require tons of capital to keep surviving and, and history is pretty good at like bringing people back around to how hard those are to do with venture capital. So it's interesting for me to see those experiments being run. You know, there was near death with Tesla many times and it's a lot easier to get in those difficult situations when you're using debt and leverage which we're seeing all over these data cent. And so I just a word of warning, be careful. It ain't easy, you know. Okay Jordy, last question. No, we gotta let our guests jump. But congratulations on the lawn. Hopefully everybody can get out and buy Running down a dream. It's available everywhere, books are sold. Go check it out. And thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us. We'll talk to you soon. Good luck. Goodbye. Let me tell you about Sentry. Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast. That's why 150,000 organizations use use it to keep their apps working. And let me also tell you about Vanta Automate compliance and Security. Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform. We have some news from the public markets. Intuit shares jump 5.4% on Pact with Anthropic. This is, you know, you like advanced talks, you like talks, you like advanced talks, you like deals. But packs are really the top tier deal making that turn your deals into packs. Accenture also turned positive, up 1% during the anthropic event. And DocuSign rises 5% after partnering with Anthropic. So lots of folks in the public markets and software that are facing pressure are going doing deals and announcing partnerships as opposed to, I don't know, competition, coopetition, what will it be ultimately? But it's a lot of stuff. Anyway, Grace says return flight from NYC gets canceled by snowstorm. Call United immediately. Connected with customer service. Rare Voice is uncanny. Deaf AI but they gave it a human like accent. Takes 20 minutes to get rebooked. Pretty good. I ask if it's AI. Haha. No man, but I get that a lot. I ask it to calculate 228 times 6647. It runs the calculation. GG, do you think this is real? Maybe Crazy. You got to test this. That is, I mean this is past the uncanny valley. Then it says voice is uncanny. So it's totally. I mean it's also pretty easy for a human to just type this in. That would be hilarious. Yeah. This is where the real alpha is if you have the chatbot open. If you're on customer service calls, you need to be. Yeah, maybe they're just using Pluli. Maybe, maybe. But Gear Tickets has the real alpha guy who vibe codes a billion dollar SaaS on a United Airlines customer service call just using them for their token. The tokens are free compute. Free compute. Free compute. Well, if you want a while ago, if you want AI voices, head over to 11 Labs. Build intelligent real time conversational agents. Reimagine human technology interaction with 11 labs continuing on. What is this hoodie? The Fred hoodie. Oh, this is amazing. I love Fred. So Fred is the Federal Reserve. What does Fred actually stand for? Fred St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic data. Yes. So this is basically the best website for economic data. Huge in my early economics career. So many useful charts and graphs. All free open source. Just like you just click it and you get exactly what you want. So whenever you want to go back to some ground truth setting, you hit Fred St. Louis or something like that. I think it's fred.stlouisfed.org is the website. Highly recommended for GDP data and more good charts. And here we go, we got the Fred sweatshirt. Absolute dripped out economic brother. How popular is the name Fred? Fred, I feel like it's that up. Let me tell you. Figma ship the best version, not the first one with Figma. Introducing Claude code to Figma. Explore more options, push ideas further. With Figma you can design your next hoodie in Figma. Potentially. Okay, so Fred in 1950 was the 84th most popular name and guess what it is now. It was 84 back then. I imagine it's fallen. I would say it's like 150. How about 2017? Fred? Such a fall off, huge opportunity. Yeah, bring back Fred, your kid. Fred I like. Great name. That's a strong name. Yeah, all these things go in cycles though. That's the business cycle. There's news over at Meta. Meta has shaken hands with amd. They're forming a pact. Today we are announcing a multi year agreement with AMD Advanced Micro Devices to integrate their latest instinct GPUs into our global infrastructure. With approximately 6 gigawatts. Give me the of planned data center capacity dedicated to this deployment. We're scaling our compute capacity to accelerate the development of cutting edge AI models and deliver personal super intelligence billions around the world. Very exciting and pretty cool little hype video. You see the camera move on this video. This feels like you speed that up, you cut in some other stuff and you got yourself an Instagram reel. Right. You see this little like, have you seen those tutorials about like how to make a car? You need some SD kit. Yeah, SD kit on this. I think it goes pretty hard. You double the speed, you add some flickering, you add some frames, frame interpolation, all sorts of stuff. But Lisa Su is on an absolute tear. AMD's doing great. Not stopping Meta. Mark Zuckerberg's Meta is planning a stablecoin comeback in the second half of this year, eyeing a third party vendor as a key partner to power payments across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. This is great if they should have something. If your friend sends you a meme, it's good. You should be able to tip them easily. Tipping for great shares. Well, if you want to build a social network, build on tipping. You'll need Plaid because Plaid powers the app to use to spend, say, borrow and invest securely. Connecting bank accounts to move money, fight fraud and improve lending. Now with AI Sean Frank, soon to be a new father and dear friend of the show, says Manus from Meta. Just doubling my ad budget every. This is the best new format. I like this. This is only possible. This is. This is the best AI image I've ever seen. I think this is so funny because this definitely doesn't happen in the actual movie, but it's. This is what Bury is like. Now I know Sean Frank really on a tear. I saw him in the chat yesterday. I forgot to say hello to him. Hello, Sean. And also congratulations on the new baby. Very excited for you. Anyway, this is hilarious image but we will return to the timeline after our next guest because we have Ivan from Notion in the Restream waiting room. Welcome to the show, Ivan. How are you doing? Hello, guys. Good to see you. Good to have you on the show. Long overdue, long overdue. We're so excited. First time, fantastic. Well, we're glad we caught you on today because there's a big launch in Notion world.
Yeah. Yes. What are some. And I circle back to the first question just about this AI stuff that's out there. I think there's this massive paradox where if you are not engaged at work, if you don't love what you do, you go home and you don't try and improve on your own time. AI feels very threatening for high agency people who are kind of on their own custom career path, which I hope this book encourages more and more people to be on. AI is like a super superpower. There's like, you can learn constantly, like you can find people who you should be connecting with. You can, you can have it do things for you so that you're operating with the power of more than one person as you move forward. And I, I just think that's quite a, quite an ironic paradox that for certain people this is the best of times, the best. Like there's never ever in the history of the world been a better time to self learn like it is. It is all out there at your fingertip. It's like magic. But yeah, I think the ability to, to you can. Anyone can ask a dumb question at any point all day long and you don't have to be, you don't have to be embarrassed about it. And I think that that is underrated today in terms of how many if like, generally, you know, there are no dumb questions and yet people still don't like asking dumb questions to their peers or mentors or whatever. And I feel like that's an underrated element of AI. Yeah, no doubt. What do you think about hyper.
Approach to investing. What's additional, what's substitutive? How is venture changing? I think from the minute I entered venture to today, venture has gotten nothing but more competitive. It's it as an asset class, it's gotten more and more competitive and people get more and more aggressive. We're in a very interesting time where people have grown funds to the size of equivalent to the largest PE funds and they're moving money. Especially, you know, you just said to Collison's on, you know, you look at the Stripe or the databricks case, they're using those large funds to convince the companies to stay private longer, maybe forever. That's just a very different world than the one that I grew up in. I think they turn around and the people that do those rounds turn around and tell the LPs, their investors, look, if you want exposure to these growth years in these companies, you need to come through us. And so if I were using cynical words, I'd say they hijacked the growth years of these early IPO companies. You know, Amazon went public below a billion in market cap. It's hard to fathom that, you know, today with what we have going on here. And that's. What's the, what's the salute. What's the solution, though? Because there's different, you know, Angellist has been, you know, available and scaling for a long time now. Robinhood has their new. Yeah, I know, I know. The problem. The problem with getting the retail investor into this crazy world of venture capital is most venture capitalists are well aware that in a fund of 10 investments, seven are going broke and bankrupt. And I don't know that the retail investors got the right frame of mind for that type of activity. I also, there's a reason that public companies have public audits and file these, these financials in the way that they do. And I tell you, when a company gets ready to go public, everyone sharpens their pencils. The auditor, the lawyers, everyone really tightens up. And I think every venture capitalist knows that the numbers that are in a PowerPoint may or may not be correct, but I don't know that retail investors know that. So I think it could. I think it could be a dangerous world to go down that path you're talking about. Yeah, but ideally, the thing to do is just to make it a lot easier to be public, lower the cost of being public, really scrutinize the cost of DNO insurance and the lawsuits that come to the table, because that makes people not want to be out there. On the field. It would require the SEC to steer themselves in the face and say, look, the number of public companies in the US Is half of what it used to be. And is that a problem? I think it is. But is that a problem and what are we going to do to fix it? But there's not an overnight fix. It would take someone being very determined to make it happen. Do you think that there's a world where the AI backlash is less if the big labs.
Startup founder and be like, okay, I'm, I'm seeing the world from Bill's perspective. That's helpful. But I could also give this to someone who's never heard of you or venture capital or knows what a safe note is and they could get value out of it. And I'm interested to hear your thoughts on the, the translation that's happening right now around AI narratives as they break into the public consciousness. We saw this with that viral X article, Something big is happening. I had that forwarded to me by family, friends. I overheard someone in a restaurant talking about it who clearly not an investor in an AI lab. They're just some random person and they realize that there's something happening. And I'm wondering about these transitions of communication. That's what's happening in Silicon Valley is going to have an impact and how what you've seen in the past translates to average Americans. I haven't seen. You know, if you think of. So first of all, the venture capital community appropriately gets excited about these big tech waves because they lead to disruption and they lead to, to kind of accelerated new wealth creation around these companies that break out. And that's happened over and over and over in my career. And I don't remember one. I mean, if you take the mobile wave or the PC wave or the client server or sas, I don't remember any of those kind of being thrown at the public consciousness this fast. And so I do think, I do think it's different this time from that front alone. That said, you know, we've had pretty high market caps for tech companies for a long time now, starting with dessert period. And you're getting to a place where, you know, anytime the market switches from, from half full to half empty and a skeptics mindset you do. We have had those moments like so, so maybe not driven by the wave, but we certainly have those moments. And it's all okay. It will always be okay. I think people freak out. Buffett says he's a net buyer of stocks. If people are intellectual and curious and hungry, they should be sharpening their pencils right now trying to figure out where they want to find entry prices on some of these companies. Yeah, that makes sense.
What have you. They're more likely to. Are you seeing an overlap between stablecoin activity and AI activity? There's been sort of a new narrative around agents will use stablecoins but I feel like agents can use legacy payment rails just fine. And then also you can do really cool things with stablecoins that are not really AI native necessarily. And so I'm wondering how much overlap there is there. I would distinguish between how things work today and how things will work in the future. In terms of how things work today. Agents. Absolutely. Can a lot of people build with stripe. You can have a one time use credit card that your agent can go out and spend. But if you look at what's happening, there's lots of agents having to solve CAPTCHAs to be able to do stuff on the wider web. Clearly the web is not built for agents and as a result they have to get creative to actually do any real world tasks. And that's true in kind of economic activity as well. Where we think things will go is just there will be a huge amount of agentic commerce. And again we're seeing a little bit of it today. We think there'll be a torrent of it. And that is what unites stablecoins and AI because we think you're going to need blockchains and better blockchains. Honestly. I mean this is what this was our thinking behind Incubating Tempo because you're going to need really high throughput blockchains for the, for the agents. Can you take us through some of the. The historical technologies that led.
On where I guess he was on Cheeky Pint with the John Collison. Yeah. He, he talks about how competitive they are. Like, and I'm just like, let's be realistic. Let's not. I also worry a little bit that the venture community's gotten into all these military companies because venture capitalists start to look like warmongers. It's ironic. Way back when, when the all in pod just got started, they were giving, oh, what's her name was on the Boeing board, Nick. Nikki Haley. Yeah, yeah. And they were like, oh, she's a warmonger. She's, you know, looking after the defense company now. Every VC's in Andrew, they're doing the same thing. Let's be consistent. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I, I, Are there any other industry.
Discovery, do purchases within the AI apps. And maybe just more kind of abstractly we've been. There's kind of this specific agent of commerce thing and then there was just the general question of how software will change because of agents. And I've been thinking about it. Maybe software becomes a bit like pizza. That is to say software historically has been created not like pizza, some would say months, years beforehand and then freeze dried and whatever you prepare it at the moment of consumption. But we're actually going to. Software should be like Pete, should be cooked right then and there at the moment of use. And so it's this quite fundamental shift where you don't want mass produced industrial scale software, you want bespoke custom software made for you. That that moment that's very fundamentally different. It's kind of up until now the economics of software have been conceived of as fixed cost and then infinitely monetized or monetized as much as possible. That has these kind of winner take all dynamics. But once there are inference costs and custom creation involved, it really shifts. It's kind of the non Walrusian software regime and just I don't know, I don't quite know where it goes, but I think it's going to look very different. Last question. Pineapple on pizza.
Pieces to unblock and unhobble the actual agents as they go about their day. Well, can I answer a slightly different question? But then we can come back to that. Yeah, go ahead. A point. I just. Sorry, this is a broader. We'll tell you the questions, you tell us your answer. So you know how brothers are. But. So I just want to lose one point for the prior question about what we're seeing in the economy, because I feel like. I mean, this is very arbitrary, obviously, but I feel like there's at least a reasonable chance that 2026 Q1 will be looked back upon as the first quarter of the singularity. Maybe in three years. In hindsight, that will look completely delusional. I don't know. But what we're seeing, I mean, there's kind of the macroscopic picture of the Stripe user base and things overall looking pretty good and so forth, and the tumult's not quite showing up. But when we look at the cohorts and then when we look at the businesses that signed up in 2023 and their progression and trajectory over the subsequent months, the businesses that signed up in 2024 and then the business signed up in 2025, there's been a phased transition in 2025 where there are both more of them, and on a per business basis, they are, on average, doing better. Which is really striking because you might think, okay, well, there's this cavalcade of new lightweight vibe coded applications or something, but, you know, that's not really a lot of substance there. We're actually seeing both numbers move together. There are many more business getting started, and the average, the median business, is in fact performing better. We're only a couple of weeks into 2026, but it looks tentatively like 2026 may plausibly be an acceleration even over that significant leap of 2025. So, I don't know. I mean, we've had all sorts of dramatic AI inventions and innovations over the last couple of years. There's a bit of a question of, well, how and when and how should we think about how it'll translate to the economy? I would say looking at real purchasing behavior on stripe, 2025, end of 25, beginning of 26 is when I feel like we're really starting to see it. That's super interesting data. One, because there was some survey that came out yesterday, or maybe it was late last week that said.
Due to their Q4 earnings, Conor McGregor is pretty excited about a new game. They got a game for everything now. It's like bull marketing games right now. There's so many games as memes. This new game is called Capybara Simulator. A relaxing game where you become a capybara, explore the forest and do nothing. It looks quite enjoyable. I think TVPN needs a game. Yeah, we definitely need to build some sort of game. This is a true. This is a lower lift than like a real time strategy game. I think so. Is trying to ship. Yeah, we definitely. But Conor McGregor says take my money. I mean clearly there's Demand for Capybara simulated. 38,000 likes. Yeah. We should move the goalposts. We need to be able to vibe code a game that's fun pretty quickly. I don't know what that means. One hour leading. You think you could do it in an hour? An hour is pretty fast. Exactly. If I have the Cerebras chip. Yeah. If I use X on Spark. Yeah. Yeah. I think that might be the solution. What were the other simulators that we looked at? Data center simulator. And then there was another one that we looked at that was funny. There were a few. There's been. So there's been.
Scale of that operation. Stripe Press just. Well, actually we. We announced in the letter we sold our millionth book. But in fact, since. Incredible. No, look, look, looks. We've actually now sold our 1.1 millionth book, so. For the next GA too. But it's great. We, we love books and they're, they're very. They're very AGI proof. Oh, yeah, no, we've been a huge fan of so much of the Stripe Press catalog. I haven't read them all, but I'm collecting them one at a time and I'm working through them and every time one drops, it's always a moment and we love them. So thank you for everything. Yeah. Great to have you guys on and congratulations to the whole team on Incredible. TVPN is an amazing startup and it's super cool to see you guys grow. And built on Stripe. Built on Stripe. Streaming world. Our sector needs. Incorporated on Stripe. Built on Stripe. Our first ad deal ever was a live read at a live conference. I think we charged $50 and I put. And I sent someone a Stripe link. We're Talking about the 2025 cohort being the fastest ever. Yes. Well, we'll have to have you to our internal Stripe show, so we'll follow. That'd be great. Yeah. We'll talk to you soon. Have a great rest of your day. Congratulations. Thanks, guys. Cheers. Goodbye. Let me tell you about Graphite Code review for the age of graphite. Helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. And I'm also going to tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces. And now with AI agents. And without further ado, we have Bill Gurley. He is the author of Running Down a Dream. Bill, welcome to the show. Thank you so much for taking the time on a busy launch day. Congratulations on the launch. You're doing great. Yes. Yeah. How many podcasts are you doing this week? I can't imagine. It's just some number beyond my comprehension. Well, we appreciate you taking the time to come chat with us. Why? Well, before we jump into everything, I got to say, somebody, I think it was a week or so ago, made a fake TVPN graphic. That was pretty silly and I just wanted you. I just wanted you to know it. We didn't make that. That was somebody. Okay. I almost, I almost emailed you about it, but. No, I tried to jump in the parody myself. Yeah, no, you did, but then I was like, wait, does he? I don't know. Well, we did early on when we were a little smaller and a little more free, loose with the jokes. We posted a picture of Bill at a basketball game as a spotted. And you replied and said like, no, the person next to me is like the owner of the team. And the whole joke is like, we know you. We don't know basketball, but we're doing the paparazzi thing. Never heard of him, but we're very excited to have you. Why the book now? What was the. What was the impetus. What was the impetus for actually writing the book? Yeah, look, I. I think, you know, especially for a show like your own, I, you know, I'm known as someone who spent 25 years in venture capital, and the book's not really about that, you know, so I. I developed a side passion project that started about eight years ago on this topic. And it was at a time where I was reading a ton of biographies, and I noticed a through line between three different subjects of things they were doing that I kind of felt most people weren't doing, but could do. And I put it together. I gave it as a presentation at my alma mater, where I got my mba and they put it online. Few people noticed. James Clear noticed. That was one of the things that kind of woke me up to the possibility. And as I began to hang up my boots, adventure, which takes a while, I turned my attention to this, and it was something that meant a lot to me. I could have written a book on vc. I don't know how many humans that could have possibly helped, but a small fraction compared to what I hope this can do. I think the projections are by 2030, there'll be more venture capitalists than people if the trend continues. But it is an interesting point. Maybe I made a mistake. I do feel like this is a book that you can read if you're a venture capitalist, insider, startup founder, and be like, okay, I'm seeing the world from Bill's perspective. That's helpful. But I could also give this to someone who's never heard of you or venture capital capital or knows what a safe note is, and they could get value out of it. And I'm interested to hear your thoughts on the. The translation that's happening right now around AI narratives as they break into the public consciousness. We saw this with that viral X article, Something Big is Happening. I had that forwarded to me by family, friends. I overheard someone in a restaurant talking about it who clearly is not, you know, an investor in an AI lab. They're just some random person and they realize that there's something happening. And I'm wondering, these transitions of communication, that's what's happening in Silicon Valley is going to have an impact and how what you've seen in the past translates to average Americans I haven't seen, you know, if you think of. So first of all, the venture capital community appropriately gets excited about these big tech waves because they lead to disruption and they lead to kind of accelerated new wealth creation around these companies that break out. And that's happened over and over and over in my career. And I don't remember one. I mean if you take the mobile wave or the PC wave or the client server or sas, I don't remember any of those kind of being thrown at the public consciousness this fast. And so I do think, I do think it's different this time from that front alone. That said, you know, we've had pretty high market caps for tech companies for a long time now, starting with desert period. And you're getting to a place where, you know, anytime the market switches from, from half full to half empty and a skeptics mindset, you. We have had those moments like so, so maybe not driven by the wave, but we certainly have those moments. And it's all okay. It will always be okay. I think people freak out. Buffett says he's a net buyer of stocks. If people are intellectual and curious and hungry, they should be sharpening their pencils right now trying to figure out where they want to find entry prices on some of these companies. Yeah, that makes sense. I mean it feels like a lot of the book is about finding a career and I feel like that will resonate specifically with people who are nervous with me because when I was thinking about when John and I first met, we had both built some companies, we both invested in some companies, but we were trying to find our life's work. And it was such a, it's such a pain. Like that period where you're searching, if you're a high agency person, you like doing, doing a lot of things, it can be deeply painful because you're like, I want to be productive, I want to be, I want to be making the number go up, but I don't have a number right now. And if you had asked either of us when we first met, hey, would you ever think about broadcast media? Would you ever think about being in front of a camera? Both of us, you know, John had made some YouTube videos, but it was just for fun. And if, and if a big, you know, if A network like CNBC had said, hey, would you guys consider, you know, hosting a show? He would have been like, yeah, like, like honored. But no way. That never imagined. And then you sort of just. And so as somebody who, like, wants a lot of control over their life and their destiny and. And like, feels like they have historically have had control, that period of just like searching is like. Is. Is painful. And I feel like a lot of the book is. Is helping people through that moment. So in some ways, when I got our copy, I was like, wow, I really wish I had this, you know, two years ago. I'd like to go back to the word, the phrase you used of high agency. I think that one of the problems that is. That has kind of evolved is that our college, our common college pathway has actually become more restrictive. And I think there's less agency. And kids are being encouraged. They have to sign up for a major before they ever go to the college. They get stuck on these pathways, and there's not a lot of exploration. There's not a lot of. Of search for creativity or obsession or the kind of thing that. That really gets you going. And I think the journey you went on is perfectly fine. I think that's another thing which is letting it be okay for people to bounce around and see what they can find, because once they latch on, and we have examples in the book where that doesn't happen till 40. Sometimes it's at 30, sometimes it's. I didn't become a venture capitalist until I was 30, and that was clear dream job. And the first two. Two stops were. Were fine and interesting and building blocks towards that. So. So I think it. I think. I think that is part of the message is to get comfortable with that and give people permission to do that type of exploration. Yeah. Enzo. Enzo Ferrari, Estee Lauder, I think the Red Bull founder too. All were, I think, in their 40s when they started their companies. And so there's this intense pressure in our industry and everywhere to figure out a job and then attach your, you know, make your entire identity that job. And it's so. It's so constrictive. Yeah. Yes. And I circle back to the first question just about this AI stuff that's out there. I think there's this massive paradox where if you are not engaged at work, if you don't love what you do, you know, you go home and you don't try and improve on your own time. AI feels very threatening for high agency people who are kind of on their own custom career path, which I hope this book encourages more and more people to be on. AI is like a superpower. There's like you can learn constantly. Like you can find people who you should be connecting with. You can, you can have it do things for you so that you're operating with the power of more than one person as you move forward. And I, I just think that's quite a, quite an ironic paradox that for people this is the best of times, the best. Like there's never ever in the history of the world been a better time to self learn like it is. It is all out there at your fingertips. It's like magic. But you have, yeah, I think the ability to, to you can, anyone can ask a dumb question at any point all day long and you don't have to be, you don't have to be embarrassed about it. And I think that that is underrated today in terms of how many if like generally, you know, there are no dumb questions and yet people still don't like asking dumb questions to their peers or mentors or whatever. And I feel like that's an underrated of. Yeah, no doubt. What do you think about hyper financialization, young people day trading, meme coins, all of that? It feels like a trap for young people where it can feel like you're learning about AI or learning about technology, but then instead of actually building a product, creating value, you're sort of just trying to shuffle chips around the poker table and ultimately just take risk. Yeah. I mean based on my understanding of day trading in a, in a Wall street context, you know, prior to maybe the crypto world, I don't, I'm, I'm not aware of any signal that suggests that's a durable skill and I think the data points the other way. But, but, but one of my messages is like do what you love, do what you're passionate about. So if that's, if that's the thing that you're going to wake up every day, you know, I, I, I'm, I don't want to, I don't want to be discouraging. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Just maybe you'll land or start a fund that it takes it really seriously and creates some, some captured value or, you know, I was probably overly skeptical of, of at least many of messages that were out there, but the, the stablecoin rail seem like a real, real innovation and, and something that has scale and, and I think maybe we're still yet to see some disruption coming down the path. Yeah, I mean we just talked to the Collisons about that. Ken Griffin started as a day trader. He was in college, he was, he was buying convertible debt and he was, you know, looking at like where the convertible debt was mispriced and, and, and made a bunch of money and then grew it into a massive team with a fund and high frequency trading arm and all this stuff. What are you making? I'm just going to say the thing that will differentiate you more in your career than anything else is to be the most hyper curious person that's trying to do this thing. And once again that's put on steroids with these AI tools. But if you are the most curious person that's constantly learning in your field, you will do extremely well. And I, I said it in the book, but I'll say it here. I can't make you the most talented person in your, in your, you know, company or your group or your field, but you have no excuse not to be the most knowledgeable person because the information's all out there. What kind of, what kind of things were you doing to learn about industries and, and companies, you know, in the beginning of your venture career that maybe you'd be using a deep research query to do today? But. Well, the first thing, I mean the first thing is you develop and I think all the great VCs in the valley, you, you develop this hyper FOMO of anything and everything. And one of the way, one of the reasons I know that, that it's time for me to move on is I, I haven't, I haven't put together a clawbout yet, but I know my older self would have done it immediately and, and it's just that kind of thing. You can't sleep on not knowing something, you know, or hearing that there's a company you don't know about. And you develop that as like, as a positive tool to just be hyper paranoid about new companies, new things, new information, new technologies. Is venture capital eating the world? Is venture capital scaling so much that it's eating into other asset classes? We're seeing mega funds. I'm interested to think about what's durable about your approach to investing, what's additional, what's substitutive. How is venture changing? I think from the minute I entered venture to today, venture has gotten nothing but more competitive as an asset class. It's gotten more and more competitive and people get more and more aggressive. We're in a very interesting time where people have grown funds to the size equivalent to the largest PE funds and they're moving money. Especially you just said to collison's on you look at the stripe or the databricks case. They're using those large funds to convince the companies to stay private longer, maybe forever. That's just a very different world than the one that I grew up in. I think they turn around and the people that do those rounds turn around and tell the LPs, their investors, look, if you want exposure to these growth years in these companies, you need to come through us. And so if I were using cynical words, I'd say they hijacked the growth years of these early IPO companies. You know, Amazon went public below a billion in market cap. It's hard to fathom that, you know, today with what we have going on here. And that's. What's the. What's the salute. What's the solution, though? Because there's different. There's different. You know, AngelList has been, you know, available and scaling for a long time now. Robinhood has their new. Yeah, I know, I know. The problem. The problem with getting the retail investor into this crazy world of venture capital is most venture capitalists are well aware that in a fund of 10 investments, seven are going broke and bankrupt. And I don't know that the retail investors got the right frame of mind for that type of activity. I also. There's a reason that public companies have public audits and file these, these financials in the way that they do. And I tell you, when a company gets ready to go public, everyone sharpens their pencils. The auditor, the lawyers, everyone really tightens up. And I think every venture capitalist knows that, that numbers that are in a PowerPoint may or may not be correct, but I don't know that retail investors know that. So I think it could. I think it could be a dangerous world to go down that path you're talking about. Yeah. But ideally, the thing to do would just to make it a lot easier to be public, lower the cost of being public, really scrutinize the cost of DNO insurance and the lawsuits that come to the table, because that makes people not want to be out there on the field. It would require the SEC to stare themselves in the face and say, look, the number of public companies in the US is half of what it used to be. And is that a problem? I think it is. But is that a problem? And what are we going to do to fix it? But there's not an overnight fix. It's going to take. It would take. It would take someone being very determined to make it happen. Do you think that there's a World where the AI backlash is less if the big labs got out earlier. I'm just thinking about the average American can't get allocation in SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI and they're seeing bills go up and they're worried about AI, but they don't have exposure. And if they could at least see that they're somewhat allocated to the home. Yeah, in the same way housing prices going up sucks until you buy a house. The way you describe it sounds more like how a politician would describe it than how I actually think it might play. I don't know that there are that many retail investors out there going, oh, my job's under threat from AI. I wish I could own Anthropic. Well, isn't that part of that, part of why? I mean this sort of fear based fundraising approach that some of the labs have taken where if somebody's telling you your job's going to go away, of course you want to give them as much money as you can as a hedge. Look, there's an interesting irony that if you wanted AI exposure, you're pretty good just owning the index. Nvidia is such a large part of the index. You have exposure to Microsoft and Google and Facebook. Like I don't know that you need to be in that place. And we are now already at a place. I would say, you know, every time there's a new technology wave, people get rich quick. When people get rich quick, speculators come in, charltons, you know, those kind of things. And eventually that leads to a bubble. People are confused when they think, you know, they say, oh, you say it's a bubble, you're anti age. No, the fact that it's real causes the bubble and that's why bulls rush. In the beginning of the gold rush there was really gold there. They were finding it at the end, you know, it got speculative and so it will get speculative. I think it would be really ironic if we, you know, invite retail investors into a Goldman led SPV of open air and drop it right before the reset, which I think would be the most likely thing that would happen. Sure, sure. How, how are you, what are you thinking about around China as of today, February 2026, we have distill gate this week. A lot of people are talking about it, but what's on your mind? Can I ask you a question about that? This is, this is remarkably naive on my part. So these model companies are saying that they're, they're API was hit 16 million times, is that correct? Yeah, something like that. I Don't even know if there's anyone else. How did that happen? Are you not tracking who connects to? Yeah, you set up a whole bunch of different, like front companies or you're reselling access. So if you go to the itunes app store right now, there will be an applause to set up 16 million accounts. Or if you just, you can go to the app store right now and look for like chat AI and it will hit the other APIs, but you're going through an American company, maybe they don't have security. So there's a lot of different ways to exfiltrate data. And then also a lot of data just hits the open web because you go to ChatGPT, you run a deep research report and then you just publish it on your blog or on the Internet. But now they've been able to those things down. You know, I share the skepticism Elon does. And this goes way back to my speech it all in on regulatory capture. I said then and I still believe now the biggest threat to the US let's call it AI hegemony is is the Chinese open source models. And the developers even in the US that are working on their own are using those. And you can see that on all the, on all the, the tables that are out there. And so it is a highly competitive, like just globally competitive reality that in an ecosystem where there's 6 to 10 open source models that can all learn off of each other, that's going to be high, like that's going to be a really incredible primordial soup if you will, for innovation to evolve. And I fear, mainly because I'm well aware that like OpenAI Anthropic is the biggest spender on lobbying whatsoever. I always fear when the these things come out that they're just trying to encourage more of that regulation. And if that happens, I think it could be like if they try and make it illegal to use a model that has any Chinese like ancestry, I think that could end up in a really weird place. And the place to really pay attention to and look out for is who's going to serve the rest of the world. And the Internet era, there was a fence around China and the US companies served the rest of the world. If we get super heavy on US regulation, you may find there's a fence around the US and China serves rest of the world. That's what I'd be worried about. How are you thinking about great power competition more broadly? Like I'm an American bald eagle. I mean as American as they come at the Same time, I feel like I've been worried about a confrontation over Taiwan for years. There's things, there's been trade wars, yes. And things are tense, but nothing's really happened. Is China somehow, like, underrated in your mind? Is the geopolitical risk overstated in some way? Like, what are you seeing that's not consensus? If you've seen some of the stuff I posted, and I think this stuff I'm posting is highly consistent with Elon's point of view. It comes from a place of if you're going to declare that there's this, this relationship that we need to optimize, I think, and, and if your goal is to lower the risk of any, any major glow up, blow up between the two, I think it's imperative to have as much knowledge as possible. And so one of the things that I don't like is when you see people out there spreading rhetoric that's just not consistent with the reality. And so I'm just like, like, let's get eyes wide open first. I also think that there are things we could learn from China about how to run infrastructure in the US they're clearly better at it than we are. And if you just, you know, close your ears and say, oh my God, they're the evil competitor and they cheat all the time, you don't ever get yourself in a position where you're going to learn, you know, from them maybe what they're doing well and what we're not. And so I'm, I'm, you know, Elon, where I guess he was on Cheeky Pint with the John Collins. Yeah, he, he talks about how competitive they are, like, and I'm just like, let's be realistic, let's not. I also worry a little bit that the venture community's gotten into all these military companies because venture capitalists start to look like warmongers. It's ironic. Way back when, when the all in pod just got started, they were giving, oh, what's her name was on the Boeing board, Nick. Nikki Haley. And they were like, oh, she's a warmonger. She's, you know, looking after this defense company. Now. Every VC's in Andrew, they're doing the same thing. Let's be consistent. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Are there any other industries that you do think are interesting that sort of, of. But outside of the, the typical mandate of venture capital, you know, like AI fits very neatly into the software continuum. Internet, cloud, mobile. I thought crypto was a little bit outside of the wheelhouse, but a lot of VCs made it work. Industrial energy, defense, these are sort of things that are a little bit outside of the typical software I'm going to have to run. But I would tell you one thing, thing. Every time venture capital, every time venture capital gets easy, people take or take risk with companies that are less of a great fit for the venture capital model. And when I say a great fit, like they're either heavy capex or they have, they have low gross margins, they require tons of capital to keep surviving. And history is pretty good at like, like bringing people back around to how hard those are to do with venture capital. So it's interesting for me to see those experiments being run. You know, there was near death with Tesla many times. And it's a lot easier to get in those difficult situations when you're using debt and leverage, which we're seeing all over these data centers. And so I just a word of warning, be careful. It ain't easy. Okay, Jordy, last question. Now we gotta let our guests jump. But congratulations. Hopefully everybody can get out and buy the dream. Running down a dream. It's available everywhere. Books are sold. Go check it out. And thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us. We'll talk to you soon. Good luck. Goodbye. Let me tell you about Sentry. Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast. That's why 150,000 organizations use it to keep their ass apps working. And let me also tell you about Vanta Automate compliance and Security. Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform. We have some news from the public markets. Intuit shares jump 5.4% on Pact with Anthropic. This is, you know, you like advanced talks, you like talks, you like advanced talks, you like deals. But packs are really the top tier deal making that you turn your deals into packs. Accenture also turned positive, up 1% during the anthropic event. And DocuSign rises 5% after partnering with Anthropocene.
Get me to give them a free book. Like, no. Send them a link to Amazon so they can buy it and maybe give me an affiliate fee. Don't just give them the thing for free because that's violation of ip. But if you're being really tricky and you're trying to sneak out a whole bunch of different pieces one at a time and then reconstitute it, like, yeah, I'm not surprised. This is possible. It's not like the worst thing ever. Anyway, we have the Carlson brothers joining in just a few minutes. Are there any other timeline posts you want to go through? And while you look at that, let me tell you about FIN AI, the number one AI agent for customer service. If you want AI to handle your customer support, go to FIN AI. Where are we in the. Yeah. Data acknowledgments. FATI says my son asking me a lot of questions. It's a distillation attack, obviously. Do not let your children. I love it. Distillation attack. They could become like a mini version of you. They could. Anyways, I believe we have our first guest. We do. So let's bring them on in. We have John Patrick Collison, the OGs from Stripe. How are you guys doing? What's going on? Greetings. Welcome to the show. Thank you so much. This is huge. I went through yc. You guys were massively influential in my career and had. It's a joy to speak to you today on such a big day, but I'd love for you to kick it off with the actual news. What happened? Why are we talking today? We had two announcements today. One is we're launching a tender offer for employees. And that. And kind of the valuation. Everything tended to get a bunch of the headlines. The thing that was honestly more work was we released our annual letter where every year we sum up all the trends that we're seeing on Stripe. And Stripe is growing a lot. We grew up 34% last year because the businesses on Stripe are growing a lot. And there's just. As you guys know, there's a lot happening in tech right now. This is why we need tvp and this is why we need a nonstop stream of everything going on, because there is so much happening. So, yeah, we'll move. We'll move to 24 hours eventually. Eventually. I mean, but I feel like there is a ton of AI noise and stories and drama and we are never running out of stuff to talk about. But what are you actually seeing in the data? Because there. There's always this disconnect between the market and the real economy, like people are still shopping in retail stores occasionally. What do you. Where is AI actually moving the needle? Well, the, generally speaking, I would say from the Stripe data it looks like the economy is in pretty good shape. And there's been, to say the, to say the least, there's been some degree of volatility in markets over the last two years and you know, all sorts of different events and deep seek moments and what have you. But, but if you look at the actual real economy time series, if you look at what's actually happening substantively over the last two years, things, I mean it's always hard to prognosticate the future, but over the last two years things really seem to be in good shape. The thing that's really catching our attention. One second because I'm just curious, have you guys tried to think about maybe the businesses are doing well on Stripe because they're kind of like forward looking, extremely tapped in, working on the right things. And if you look at a bunch of legacy providers, you would see that actually there are a bunch of businesses out there that are slowing down that maybe are feeling effective. Just overall consumer spending. Have you tried to kind of break that out or understand that dynamic? It's obviously hard to measure because we don't have that data, we only have our data. But I think there is some of that composition effect and we see it, I guess both in Stripe's data compared to say public earnings from others. Clearly respective populations are performing somewhat differently. But I guess we also see it qualitatively in the conversations we're having with customers where what tends to happen, say for some incumbent is they built some business, they installed some system long before Stripe even existed. Maybe there's some sense that, well, it's not broken, don't fix it, but then decide, hey, we're going to do something new. And when they're doing something new, then they want to use the best infrastructure that will enable them to move the fastest and launch in the most countries and support stablecoins and do things with AI and whatever and then they tend to launch that in Stripe. And so there is this qualitative sense that once a company decides to do something innovative new, retool what have you, they're more likely to come to Stripe. Are you seeing overlap between stablecoin activity and AI activity? There's been sort of a new narrative around agents will use stablecoins, but I feel like agents can use legacy payment rails just fine. And then also you can do really cool things with stablecoins that are not really AI native necessarily. And so I'm wondering how much overlap there is there. I would distinguish between how things work today and how things will work in the future. In terms of how things work today. Agents, Absolutely. Can a lot of people build with Stripe? You can have a one time use credit card that your agent can go out and spend, but if you look at what's happening, there's lots of agents having to solve CAPTCHAs to be able to kind of do stuff on the wider web. Clearly the web is not built for agents and as a result they have to get creative to actually do any real world tasks. And that's true in economic activity as well. Where we think things will go is just there will be a huge amount of agentic commerce and again we're seeing a little bit of it today. We think there'll be a torrent of it. And that is what unites stablecoins and AI because we think you're going to need blockchains and better blockchains, honestly. I mean this is what this was our thinking behind Incubating Tempo because you're going to need really high throughput blockchains for the agents. Can you take us through some of the historical technologies that led to growth in just Internet payments? I'm thinking about like mobile social commerce, one click checkout, Apple pay. Like there's so many things when I think about the agentic commerce boom that's coming, like it could be hooking a better version of Siri up And you know, ChatGPT rolling this out very aggressively. But also, you know, smart speakers, smart lamps like your watch. Like there's so many different pieces to unblock and unhobble the actual agents as they go about their day. Well, can I answer a slightly different question? But then we can come back to that. Yeah, go ahead. A point. I just. Sorry, this is. We'll tell you the questions, you tell us your answers. So you know how, brother. So I just want to lose one point for the prior question about what we're seeing in the economy because I feel like, I mean this is very arbitrary obviously, but I feel like there's at least a reasonable chance that 2026 Q1 will be looked back upon as the first quarter of the singularity. Maybe in three years, in hindsight that will look completely delusional, I don't know. But, but we're seeing, I mean there's kind of the macroscopic picture of the Stripe user base and things overall looking pretty good and so forth and the Tumults not quite showing up. But when we look at the cohorts and then when we look at the businesses that signed up in 2023 and their progression and trajectory over the subsequent months, the businesses that signed up in 2024 and then the business signed up in 2025, there's been a phase transition in 2025 where there are both more of them and on a per business basis they are on average doing better. Which is really striking because you might think, okay, well, there's this cavalcade of new lightweight vibe coded applications or something, but there's not really a lot of substance there. We're actually seeing both numbers move together. There are many more business getting started and the average, the median business is in fact performing better. We're only a couple of weeks into 2026, but it tentatively, like 2026 may plausibly be an acceleration even over that significant leap of 2025. So I don't know. I mean, we've had all sorts of dramatic AI inventions and innovations over the last couple years. There's a bit of a question of, well, how and when and how should we think about how it'll translate to the economy? I would say looking at real purchasing behavior on stripe, 2025, end of 25, beginning of 26 is when I feel like we're really starting to see it. That's super interesting data one, because we were, there was some survey that came out yesterday, or maybe it was late last week that said they asked, like they asked a bunch of executives, are you getting any value out of AI? And 80% of them said no. But clearly if you look at you, when you look at, come on, that's hogwash. Like, find me one executive who wants a refund on their tokens. Find me one executive who said, oh yeah, we started, you know, augmenting our customer service with AI so people are more productive, but we're just going to go back to doing it the old fashioned way. Or like we're spinning our code by hand and you know, we don't need any of this automated loom, you know, technology just like. Yeah, I'm not saying I'm not. I could, I could pick out a bunch of reasons. No, no, I'm not saying I agree with it. No, I could pick out a bunch of reasons why it would be wrong. One, one reason it might be wrong is they, is they're not in the weeds actually using the tools. And so they just think like you might not even be aware that they're using the Tools, because it's buried under. And they're not. They're not feeling. They're not feeling the acceleration, because they're not. They're not. Yeah. I wanted to ask how you guys think about incubations like Tempo. When you look at. When I look at Atlas and what Jeff and the team have done there, you think even in your, I don't know, kind of like the most wild projection that you had early with Atlas, like, hey, maybe someday a quarter of the. Of the C Corps in the United States could be, you know, built on this platform. Anybody would have said that was insane. And yet here we are. Gosh, I am. I'm not sure what to say, really, except we just. We just try to pay a lot of attention to the. I mean, as you guys know, there's a lot of pain points that go into starting a company, and we just try to take them seriously. And then, you know, it's the line. So much of these things is just a long obedience in the same direction. Like, Atlas is now this great overnight success. But we launched Atlas, I think, in overnight 2014, maybe 2015. And so, you know, 10 years of compounding and yeah, now it's at some pretty meaningful scale. And, you know, look, I think Tempo will probably have the same shape where we think it. I mean, again, to this AI discussion and us sounding a bit unmoored and untethered. Like, I think the world is going to need platforms that support millions of transactions per second. Billions of transactions per second, which no payment, rail or platform does today. But even in the success case, it's not going to be an overnight thing. It's going to be five, six, seven years. And then maybe we'll have conversations about how Tempo suddenly became an overnight success or something. But, John, I think Patrick's a bit. The fish in water who can't, you know, who doesn't know things are wet. My framework would be, you can't get too MBA brain about new products. You can't have your spreadsheet. That's like, oh, the TAM is this. And just like reason about things. Yeah. You should never say we want 1% of global GDP. No, we do this kind of stuff. Exactly. You guys never. Wait, you guys never pitch that. Well companies. We actually never thought about stripe in GDP terms until one day we realized, oh, hang on. Oh, that's such an important lesson. Because so many, so many. Like, how many founders, how many pitch decks have you seen over the last decade? They're like, yeah, just need 1%. And it's kind of it's a meme. You can go back in the Wayback Machine and find the early Stripe websites, but we're very focused on payments for developers and making that experience good. But where I'm going is I think you have to reason in product specifics. And so again, I think any NBA would have told you that the adjacency of, you know, incorporation makes no sense. It's not related to, you know, what's our right to win. You know, there's all these things people say, whereas you actually go talk to founders, they're like, guys, it's like, this is the single biggest issue I run into starting my company. And similarly with Tempo and just as we think about incubations, we're trying to solve a real problem here where we talked in the letter about Bridge having operational issues not because of Bridge, but because of blockchain congestion where, you know, you have coins that are or blockchains, both used for kind of meme coin trading and also serious real world payments. And so we just want low latency, high throughput payments and we're going to need much higher throughput for the agents. But anyway, I think you have to reason in very specific product terms. What specific products are you excited about? In the unhobbling of agentic commerce we laid out in the letter, basically these, these, these levels of agent commerce because I think like everything in AI, people want to sell a hype y story and so they, you know, talk about how the machines will buy everything consulting you and people aren't actually, you know, that seems far off. They're not that excited about that. You can start from just the basics of why are we filling out forms like that? You know, you were talking about the progression of commerce. Why can't I just send something to, you know, a link to ChatGPT and have it buy it? Or why can't I search, you know, outside of, you know, just doing a basic keyword search or something like that. And so a lot of the work Stripe is doing is building the infrastructure. We're working with all the big retailers that you would expect the, you know, Etsy's and Shopify and Best Buys and Walmarts and folks like this to make product catalogs viable within the AI apps. And there's basically a ton of boring API and protocol and infrastructure work which, you know, we love, that's our business. But people just want to be able to do shopping, do discovery, do purchases within the AI apps and maybe just more kind of abstractly, you know, we've been there's kind of this specific agent of commerce thing and then there's just the general question of how software will change because of agents. And I've been thinking about it. Maybe software becomes a bit like pizza. That is to say software historically has been created not like pizza, some would say months, years beforehand and then freeze dried and whatever you, you prepare it at the sort of moment of consumption. But we're actually going to. Software should be like Pete, should be cooked right then and there at the moment of use. And so it's this quite fundamental shift where you don't want mass produced industrial scale software, you want bespoke custom software made for you. That moment that's very fundamentally different. It's kind of the. Up until now the economics of software have been conceived of as fixed cost and then infinitely monetized or monetized as much as possible. That has these kind of winner take all dynamics. But once there are inference costs and custom creation involved, it really shifts. It's kind of the non walrusian software regime and just. I don't know, I don't quite know where it goes, but I think it's going to look very different. Last question. Pineapple on pizza, yes or no? Ireland was big into pineapple on pizza. Ireland, not a big pineapple growing country, I will concede, but a lot of pineapple in the pizza. Good memories. A very large fraction of the banana market, don't forget. So we punch above our weight in fruits that don't grow there. There we go. There we go. I love fruit. The round is exciting. The overall growth of volume is exciting. But we wanted to hit the go for how many books you guys are selling. Oh yeah, can you give us the numbers there? Scale that Operation Stripe Press just. Well, actually we announced in the letter we sold our millionth book. But in fact since. Incredible. No, look, books. We've actually now sold our 1.1 millionth book. So we'll come back for the next galanga too. But it's great. We love books and they're very, very, they're very AGI proof. Oh yeah. We've been a huge fan of so much of the Stripe Press catalog. I haven't read them all but I'm collecting them one at a time and I'm working through them and every time one drops it's always a moment and we love them. So thank you for everything. Yeah. Great to have you guys on and congratulations to the whole team on you guys. TVPN is an amazing startup and it's super cool to see you guys grow and built on Stripe. Built on Stripe. In the streaming world, our sector needs. Incorporated on Stripe. Built on Stripe. Our first ad deal ever was a live read at a live conference. I think we charged $50 and I put. And I sent someone a Stripe link. We're Talking about the 2025 cohort being the fastest ever feedback. But. Well, we'll have to have you to our internal Stripe show, so we'll follow. Yeah, that'd be great. Yeah, we'll talk to you soon. Have a great rest of your day. Congratulations. Thanks, guys. Cheers. Goodbye. Let me tell you about graphite code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. And I'm also going to tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces. And now with AI agents and without further ado, we have Bill Gurley. He is the author of Running Down a Dream. Bill. Welcome to the show. Thank you so much for taking the time on a busy launch day. Congratulations on the launch day. Yes. Yeah. How many podcasts are you doing this week? I can't imagine. It's just some number beyond my comprehension. Well, we appreciate you taking the time to come chat with us. Why? Well, before we jump into everything, I got to say somebody, I think it was a week or so ago, made a fake TVPN graphic that was pretty silly and I just wanted you. I just wanted you to know it. We didn't make that. I almost. I almost emailed you. No, I tried to jump in on the parody myself. Yeah, you did. But then I was like, wait, does he. I don't know. Well, we did. Early on when we were a little smaller and a little more free to loose with the jokes, we posted a picture of Bill at a basketball game as a spotted. And you replied and said like, no, the person next to me is like the owner of the team. And the whole joke is like, we know you. We don't know basketball, but we're doing the paparazzi thing. Never heard of him, but we're very excited to have you. Why the book now? What was the impetus for actually writing the book? Yeah, look, I think especially for a show like your own, I'm known as someone who spent 25 years invented.
Founder mode 5 code. See multiple journalists on the horizon. Standby. Uav online. Glaze. Double glaze. Triple glaze. Double kill. 5 kill. Team. Deathmatch. We are experts. Triple blaze. Let's just roll right. Market clear. Order inbound. Come on, get up. You're surrounded by gentlemen. Hold your position. Break 1. Strike 2, Activate. Go to retriever mode. Trust pressure. Market clearing order inbound. Vibe put it. I see multiple journalists on the horizon. Standby. Founder. You're watching TVPN. Today is Tuesday, February 24, 2026. We are live from the TVPN Ultra Dome, the temple of technology, the fortress of finance. Finance, the capital of capital. We're running down a dream. Today. We are surviving the Citrini apocalypse. Live to fight another day. A lot of chaos in the markets. A lot of reflection about the story behind the story. What happened? We had a lot of fun debating the Citrini report. A lot of good stuff in there, some other kind of crazy stuff that sort of got everyone twisted in a knot. But it didn't stop the markets for it. It did become the current thing. And I think a lot of people were talking about it. I mean, my feed was covered in Citrini stuff. But today is a new day and there's a ton of new tech news. First, let me tell you about ramp.com Time is money. Say both easy to use, corporate cards, bill pay accounting, and a whole lot the goats. And then second, I want to pull up the Linear lineup because, boy, do we have a show for you today, folks. We got the Collison brothers joining together at 11:40. Then we going over to Bill Gurley, the height mogger himself. He's 6 foot 9. He mogs me. Oh, he mogs. It's over for me. That's why we said you can't come to the studio. You can't be seen next to John Coogan in person. You're staying remote. The right pair of cowboy boots. Yeah, I might have it. You might have it. The right pair of lifts as well, inside those cowboy boots. Then we got Ivan from Notion and a whole bunch more funding announcements during the lightning round. Roon, Reiner Devanche and a ton of other folks are joining. It's a crazy show. James from Profound. James is. Yeah, James, New unicorn. Very fun. Well, linear, of course, is the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise workspaces on Linear are using agents. So the story behind the Citrini story, I had some takeaways. My big update, mentally was just that we are the sell side research now basically new we as in but X and substack independent researchers and analysts are really moving the markets. I feel like Ben Thompson has been a source of alpha for the market for a long time. He's been a source of investment theses, but he doesn't put a buy or sell rating on things and much more long term. Long term, exactly. Here's how strategies are converging. Exactly. The market is evolving. Make your own decision. Yes. And then I see Semianalysis is thinking more in a couple years out and it's still like there are. They get held accountable for, oh, you said Microsoft is going to do this and they did that, blah blah, blah. And they have a different model that they actually sell to hedge funds. And so they're very much in the research business. But what's interesting about semianalysis and a lot of these other independent analysis firms is that they're not sitting inside banks. We are very much used to sell side research being done by Morgan Stanley, bank of America, Goldman Sachs. You get these equity research reports that your friends send you the PDFs for because you can't afford them. No, seriously, if you're working in an industry, get the sell side research report on your industry as fast as possible. It's very, very informative. There's always good data in there. But yeah, my big update was like, wow, okay, this is like a viral post that completely broke containment. There's people making TikToks about it now. And also it's on the COVID of the Wall Street Journal. Over cells. Yeah. Doom sells. Doom sells. Yeah. Over cells. Yeah, that's one of the narratives. And there was this funny, funny thing about like, oh well, it's just one, it's just one scenario. It's just one scenario. It's low probability. And then let's pull up Eric's. Eric, super was like, yeah, it's just one scenario. But you only gave us one scenario and you spent 100 hours on that scenario. What do you expect people to take away from it? Except like this is the one scenario that you think is most worth considering. But of course it is possible that software is cooked, everything's cooked. And if there's a 5% chance that everything's cooked, yeah, the market should probably sell off by a couple percent. And you know, the market didn't even really sell off a couple percent. Like a couple names went down a few percent. Some of them already popped back up. Markets I think doing pretty well today. Yeah, green on the Dow, green on the nasdaq and a lot of Green on that ticker down there, which is of course provided by public.com investing for those who take it seriously. They got stocks, options, bonds, crypto treasuries and more with great customer service. And I'm also going to tell you about Okta. OKTA helps you assign every AI agent a trusted identity so you get the power of AI without the risk. Secure every agent, secure any. Let's head over to Derek Thompson, the Thompson Thompsonator. He says, I really want people to see the story above the story here, which is that whether you're reading Citrini or listening to Jamie Dimon at a cocktail party, the conversation about AI is a marketplace of competing science fiction narratives. That's not to say I think the technology is a parlor trick. You know, we cover this a couple weeks ago. He's feeling, he's feeling the, the AGI that might be a little bit putting it too aggressively, but certainly he sees the potential impact. But Derek says, but rather that the level of uncertainty is so high and the quality and supply of real world real time information about AI's macroeconomic effects so paltry. That very serious, that very serious. Conversations about AI are often more literary than genuinely analytical. And I think that observation sets up another important point. I feel lucky to be able to have conversations about the frontier of AI with executives and builders at Frontier Labs, economists, investors and other AI folks at off the record dinners where important truths can theoretically be shared without risk. I can't emphasize enough that nobody knows anything except for us is about as close to the reality here as three words are going to get you. Nobody, nobody. What's. Nobody knows what's going to happen this year or next year or the year after that. There is no secret cigar filled room of people except for us, except the back room. I think we do have some cigars back there. You have unique access to some authentic postcard from the future. When you drill down underneath the bluster, the boosterism, the fear, the anxiety, what's there at the bottom is genuine uncertainty, a vacuum into which storytelling is flooding. The Frontier Labs don't really know what they're building exactly, but we do. And economists don't really know how to model the thing they claim they're building, but we do. Yeah, I wish more people talked about and thought about this subject through that sort of lens. We're trying to model the economy. Wide effects of a technology whose properties the Frontier Labs can't even really describe yet. Whatever you think of AI today, be prepared to change your mind soon. Yeah, this was something with all up yesterday is I didn't. When I asked him why, why do you think that so many of the Internet predictions were deeply wrong? His answer was, it's just a continuum. AI is just a continuum. And so like, give it more time, basically. Yeah. The rebuttal that I heard from him when you said that he was like, well, no, like look at all those predictions did come true. And it was like, yeah, but over 20 years, which is like wildly different than two years because the Fear article is called the 2028. Exactly, exactly. And so also, so if you tell me also, so many institutions just adapt it. Yeah. Like if you go to somebody and you say, hey, in 20 years your job is going to be radically different. They're like, I hope so. Like, I'm going to be super bored doing the same thing for the next 20 years. Don't worry, I'll be on two years. There's going to be no industry that you're currently in. Everyone's going to be like, oh, okay. Like that's crazy. It's wildly different to be like, you have 20 years to adjust what you do. Like, you know, if you're like, you know, you're, if you're in Hollywood and you're like, okay, I got to learn digital filmmaking, I got to learn how to integrate cgi. I got to learn AI as a tool. That's way different than just like next year we will be one shotting holiday Hollywood films and we will. You will have no employment prospects whatsoever, not even as a prompter, because the labs will be prompting them themselves for AI videos and maybe that's possible, but I have a feeling that it's just like it's not a year away, it's not two years away. It's a little bit farther still on the 10 year camp, still on the Kurzweil timelines. But interestingly, I'm impatient about it. I want it to go faster, I want the acceleration, I want the progress. I think the progress is good. So I'm not like a doomer or pessimist. I'm just like trying to grapple with the fact that I've, I had to wait four years in between GPT3 and models being good enough to not hallucinate. I had to wait another four years between like the early Dali experiments and like the nano bananas. Like it's, it has felt like, like something happens and I'm like, oh, wow. Like, okay, like AI can generate images but it's sort of sloppy. And then I wait like four years and it's like okay, it's like a lot less sloppy but it's like still not like dialed. Like it's. It went from 90% to 99% and I'm waiting for it to get to 99.9999-9999-9999-9999-9999%. That's where I want it to go anyway. Is Doordash cooked? Let's go over to Ben Thompson on Strate. He said, okay, fine, while I'm here. The DoorDash example is just unbearably dumb. He is a believer in the power of DoorDash to weather the AI storm. I saw that the DoorDash CEO put out like an SEC letter to the investors. Did you see that? Like a full PDF filed with the sec. Like this is sort of guidance but telling the investor base like here's what's not going to change. Like basically disregard the Citrini report. Disregard Sci fi doom. He says, set aside for now the question of agents and aggregation. That's a post that is definitely in my mental cue. What is notable about the assertion is the total denial of any positive reason for DoorDash to exist or and to be so successful. There's no awareness that DoorDash provides provided a massive consumer benefit restaurant food at home from scratch. I like Keith Rabois. Take that Doordash is the I'm hungry button on your phone and then there's a whole bunch of crazy things that you have to do to make that happen. Make that button work. I ordered DoorDash last night. I felt like I did it in protest of the doom. I was like I'm still supporting. I'm riding with DoorDash. There's no awareness that DoorDash provided a massive consumer benefit from scratch, that DoorDash massively increased the addressable market for restaurants, or that DoorDash provided brand new jobs for millions of drivers. Instead, the article just sort of takes it as a given that DoorDash exists and that it is a rent extractor preying on weak willed humans their habits. This is the exact sort of view taken by some of the most frustrating anti monopoly activists. All large successful tech companies exist not because they created a market with virtuous cycles solving all kinds of thorny problems along the way, but rather because the government didn't regulate hard enough. I was thinking about in antitrust regulation, you know how they'll stop two firms from joining because that will create a monopoly, but they don't really have a tool in the tool chest for Stopping a company from just shutting down and stopping competing. Like if Xbox goes away, as people are predicting doom around Xbox, PlayStation gets a lot more powerful. Obviously, it's like the only game on the block. And so should the FTC have a hammer to be like, no, you gotta lock in, Asha. You gotta make more Xbox games. You gotta compete harder. We want you to. We want you to get GTA 6 out exclusively on Xbox faster to put the screws to Sony. You don't have time to spend three months gaming. No, no, no. Lock in. Give us a new Halo. Give us a new Modern Warfare. Give us a new Fable. I don't know. What are the other great Xbox games? Throughout the years, I was never that big of an Xbox gamer. Never owned an Xbox. Never owned an xbox. Wow. Oh, I'm a gamer. No, you never say that. I wasn't, I didn't have the. What were, what was an Xbox back then? It was like 300, 400 bucks. Expensive. Anyway, let me tell you about Gemini 3.1 Pro. Gemini 3.1 Pro is here with a more capable baseline. It's great for super complex tasks like visualizing difficult concepts, synthesizing data into a single view, or bringing creative projects to life. I was thinking about the SaaS apocalypse in the context of the fact that today's launches. No, there are a lot of launches. Well, well, no. The disconnect in the SaaS apocalypse is that. Is that AI native SaaS is getting funded at an insane rate. Yes. While you have these massive sell offs in the public market. Yeah. There is a little bit of disk. There's private companies that are getting lots and lots and lots of funding that if they were, if they were public, would have traded down 20% over the last week or so. Continue. The thing I was thinking about was there's this whole idea that you'll be able to build your own CRM or your own ERP and vibe code. IT and open source CRMs exist. There's one called suite CRM. There's ODO, there's ERPnext. There's plain for task management, open project Redmine. There are open source alternatives to almost every piece of software. There's an open source Photoshop that people use on Linux and they've never really gotten adoption. I used an open source forum software for a while and very quickly I called the person that was maintaining it and was like, I'll pay 1000 bucks to just like do this for me. And then it became a managed service very quickly. There's an open source capybara simulator. Is that open source? No, but it's interesting because open source has always been this like pressure on SaaS and it's always withstood that. And like, yeah, maybe like if you can just prompt it. And it feels like emailing your SaaS provider to reconfigure things like that is a real pressure. But I think it's underrated that that open source CRMs have existed for decades and never really taken off because there's something else that's valuable there. But Tyler has a. Yeah, because he thinks everything's going to get slopped. I think that's like mostly cope. Okay, explain the comp to open source stuff. It's just annoying to maintain. So no one ever does it and you're kind of just paying whoever to maintain it, right? Well, no, no, no, no. In open source, like, you don't need to pay someone to maintain it. You can just use the open source version of the open source thing. It's like you're basically paying someone to maintain it. Yeah, yeah. Host it, manage it, make sure uptime's. But like models keep getting better and they'll just like do all that for you. They'll do all that for you. And it's like. Yeah, I think that's like very obvious. Yeah. It is possible that you would just say, like, okay, run in a loop and just go around and fix everything and if there's uptime or security patches, like, patch them immediately. Well, the open source software gets better. There's two narratives, right? There's the, okay, everyone will just vibe code everything in any department. Yeah, you can just have an employee just make the software, tell the agent not to make mistakes or tell the agent, hey, fix this thing. So that's one thing. And I feel like that is maybe a part of the sell off, but the bigger reason for the sell off is maybe what Derek Thompson is talking about, which is that the world is getting weirder. A lot of people are feeling the acceleration. And if you just don't know what the world looks like or what work looks like in five years, you want to take some risk off, you're not willing to pay the same revenue multiple that you were three years ago. Yeah, I do want to dig into that point that you mentioned earlier a little bit more, which is like you have the Tyler philosophy of you could vibe code everything and the agents will be able to go around and maintain and everyone will have personalized software individuals where the value accrues to the person using the software, but then also the Lab providing the software, the inference. And then there's like the private markets boom right now in AI enabled software where companies are saying, well, we were able to pull our roadmap way forward, we got to an MVP in a weekend and we're able to ship features way faster. So when we onboard new clients and they ask for something, it's like boom. And we get it done in a few days as opposed to a few weeks of engineering Sprint. And so the narrative is like we're moving faster and we're creating like AI enabled products that could exist otherwise. And it feels like both of those can't be true. So I don't know which way we'll land. Ben Thompson called out the real estate example. He took a segment out. This is from Citrini. Even places we thought insulated by the value of human relationships proved fragile. Real estate where buyers had tolerated. I'm saying this in an extra dramatic voice. Love it. Where buyers had tolerated 5 to 6% commissions for decades because of information asymmetry between agent and consumer crumbled once AI agents equipped with MLS access and decades of transaction data could replicate the knowledge base instantly. And then Ben Thompson says the real estate example makes the exact opposite point. The author thinks it does. The truth is that the Internet already obsoleted real estate agents in terms of information flow. You can go online right now and get a listing of every house for sale with pictures, its full history, et cetera. There is no information asymmetry, but rather information abundance. The fact that real estate agents still exist despite that shift is actually one of the more compelling arguments that humans will be remarkably resourceful in terms of giving themselves jobs to do even in areas where they ought to be pointless. Yeah. How hard is it to disintermediate a real estate agent? Does it happen on the buy side or the sell side? Like if I find a place on Zillow and I go knock on the door or I write them a letter and I say, hey, I want to buy this, but I don't have a real estate license and I'm. And I'm not using a realtor and I don't want to pay a fee, will they be like, cool? I think, I mean, you can do it from either side, but I will just say the reason that you don't is that I'm in process, I mean, currently in escrow on a property and the guy representing me is going to make a lot of money, but he's extremely helpful and he does a lot of real estate transactions. I don't do any. Yeah, I mean, I don't. I've done one in my life. So, like, he's. It's like, yeah, technically, entrepreneurs could negotiate their own legal docs with Claude. We have a buddy who got a real estate license. Right. Didn't Spencer from day job? Oh, yeah, they did. Yeah. It's possible. Yeah. Doxing his real estate license. Well, yeah. And Spencer is probably a lot better now that he can use ChatGPT or Gemini or any of these models to do stuff like this. But that being said, you're paying for, effectively, therapy throughout the deal and, like, general guidance. And I can't be your therapist. It's doable. I don't know, Tyler, will you ever use a real estate agent or will you ban them on principle? Go direct. I mean, seems like I think models can do this. Okay, we'll see over what timeline. Like total real estate commission. Well, it's like, I don't think I'm gonna be buying a house in the next two years. Yeah, but houses will be bought over the next two years. So what will the fall in real estate commissions be over the next two years? I think, like, okay, you're seeing a lot of these, like, big rounds of the big labs. All the researchers gonna be buying houses. I think a lot of them are gonna try to do it without real estate. You think so? Yeah, I would. I'm sure that someone's gonna write, like, a cool blog post about this. Okay. That's the thing, though. Cool blog post. That's the benchmark. It's. It's viral article, not actual impact on the economy. Sure. It's like, going to work, like, so. So right now we should have you buy a property. Yes. Yourself. Buy that town in Maine. That village. Yes, get the village. Anyway, speaking of day job, they just did a fantastic ad campaign with none other than just an ad campaign. But then can an entire brand. While we pull this up, Let me tell you about Applovin. Profitable advertising made Easy with Axon AI. Get access to over 1 billion daily active users and grow your business today. So Kim Kardashian, she has a product called Drink Update. And here is the photo shoot from none other than Day Job. Some of our closest friends and folks who we worked with on the TVPN brand. Looks very cool. It's crazy because I know another founder who has an energy drink company called Update. Wait, really? That is cooked now. Well, I don't know who's cooked. If Kim Kardashian is coming for your consumer product brand, I feel like you're in trouble. She's almost a lawyer. What if she almost sues you? Oh yeah, she's close to being. What if she uses Claude to pass the bar and then she sues? Oh, maybe, maybe. I actually think this company is effectively just relaunching with Kim. Yes, yes, yes. This is a common thing. Yeah. Okay, okay, I got it. I met this founder a while ago. They have a special ingredient in here that's sort of a caffeine alternative. It's called parazanthine. It's called. So yeah, they've been building this for a while. I know it's available in promethazine in it. No, no lean. No lean. But paraxanthine is jitter free and crash free. They're saying you can have a free lunch. John, I like it. I'm here. You like the sound of that? They should have called it Faust. I like a Faustian bargain. Anyway, Doug over at Fabricated Knowledge who's coming on the show tomorrow from semi analysis he said okay, finally read the Citrini piece. No one knows the future and I think that there's a lot of disclaimers like being like yeah, this is p speculative but the core thrust of it is that information work itself has a real premium and pricing power that has been embedded into it and that one way trade can go backwards really hard all at once. I seriously think there's a huge risk and while prices go down we just consume more. Prices going down one time 50% we net consume less for a bit. I have been and continue to be worried about deflation. Something I think is that selling tokens raw is probably bad but selling solutions is probably really really good. Think the problem is good enough is a good enough model that kind of eat a solution no matter what. And so let's say Claude made cowork go giga expensive and it's 10k seat a year. Great, less deflation. But China low end model massively eats that price. It's a race to the bottom. Anyways, great piece, always appreciated as always. Citrini. This is the first post I've read where I've said like maybe it should be passed through an LLM. Maybe that needed an EM dash to make it more readable. I love you Doug. I was stumbling over that. And we will close the Citrini mega cycle with the close of the software megacycle as has been predicted by Will Menaitis. He says the software megacycle started with PayPal going public and it will end with PayPal going private. We will see how long that takes. PayPal could be public for another decade, who knows? But it's certainly getting beat up in the public markets right now. Anyway, Bern Hobart says hearing that the latest Anthropic job offer is a negative $10 million salary. You gotta pay to work there. But you get access to their upcoming blog posts and tweets 24 hours in advance and permission to trade in your personal account with no restrictions. I don't see how any other labs have any talent left. Of course he's joking, but very funny to think about the insider trading that could be happening based on if. The only thing is, if it came out that Anthropic was effectively day trading against the companies that they want to sell their, their models to, yeah, it would be basically over. It would create like a very anti anthropic alliance for sure from the, from the business community and potentially the government as well. Anyway, you don't want to be in hot water like that. You want to be using Turbo Puffer, serverless vector and full text search built from first principles on object storage. Fast 10x cheaper, extremely scalable. Stacy, who's been on the show before, says, telling my kids that if they don't clean their rooms, Trini will come for them. Dangerous stuff. Dangerous stuff. Anyway, this is like a lunar landing but for business and technology podcast. Oh, Matt Slotnick is sharing the news that Salesforce Chair and CEO Marc Benioff to discuss Q4 and full year results on TBPN Company to debut evolved earnings show format. We're doing on a show with Salesforce. He's putting on a show. We're so excited for this. Anyway, in other big company announcement news, there's a lot of announcements. You may have missed this one. You may have been. Oh, Bill Gurley's book launched. Oh, Stripe announced a massive fundraising round. Oh, profound. Is announcing a funding round. Well, there's bigger news and that's that McDonald's just launched the biggest burger ever. The Big Arch. Big Arch. It finally arrives in the UN in the United States. To me, I'm thinking this. How did they not have this burger the whole time? How have they not done this before? I feel like that's been more of Jack in the Box's wheelhouse is like the quarter pounder, the $6 burger. That was a thing. That was a campaign for a while before Tyler's time, I'm sure. But the $6 burger was something that you'd see, right? Has not been a thing the entire time Tyler's been alive. No, he doesn't Inflation has come for the burger. The $6 burger was an ad that you would see right in between ads for different Xbox games on the original Xbox. For sure. There was a time before you were born, when I was just a boy, my parents would give me like 10 bucks and that was like, they'd be like, that should be worth two meals. So make it last. Make it last. Yeah, Happy Meals. We lost that. We lost that. Good times. Let me tell you about Cisco. Critical infrastructure for the AI era unlocks seamless real time experiences and new value with Cisco. This is big. This is big. For podcasters, this is arguably a bigger announcement than the big Arch, which is that supreme has come and launched an official Shure MV7 microphone. You've been waiting for it. You've been asking the hypebeast microphone. Now, can we get a Chrome Hearts RE20 from Electro Voice? Isn't that what this is? This is the RE20, Chrome Hearts RE20. Because you know the MV7, if you don't know your podcast mics, it is a more consumer focused, more prosumer focused microphone. The actual Shure has been riding this aura from the SM7B. That's the one that Joe Rogan uses. It was also, I believe, the microphone that was used to record Thriller. So Michael Jackson used it in the studio. So it has a lot of aura, a lot of lore. And so the most successful podcasters adopted it and everyone was like, oh, we gotta go with the Shure SM7B. But the SM7B, it needs a lot of power, it needs a lot of gain. And so, yeah, if you wanted to just like plug it into your computer, you needed this thing called the Cloudlifter. It required a whole bunch of configuration. It wasn't just plugging into the USB C. So Shure responded to the demand, the overwhelming demand for that iconic Shure look that, you know, it's a long cylinder, basically. And they came out with the MV7, which was a. Which is a USB C. You can also plug it into an XLR cable, but you can plug it straight into your microphone or into your laptop, which is great for zoom meetings and just easy, simple podcasts. But we've used these before and people have complained about the audio quality. Jordan Schneider over at Chinatalk actually told me directly, he was like, upgrade to the re 20s that they're better, they sound better, you guys should do it. We did, and I think it's been good. But it completely opens the door for other brands to get in here. We need a Bottega, we need A Chrome heart, a Rick Mill. We need a Rick Owens re 20 for sure. Jane street accused of insider trading that helped collapse Terraform or Terra Luna. The court appointed administrator of Do Kwon's Terraform Labs alleged that Jane street used non public information about Terraform insiders to trade. We don't have to read this entire article. There was some snippets actually pulled out. Zerohedge has a little bit of the details here. The playback was behind the 2022 Crypto Winter. Destroying Terraform by first de pegging the token and destroying the ecosystem, then pretending it would rescue Terra while effectively it was soaking up what little value remained. And mixed response to this. Some people are calling it based, some people say it rocks. I guess they don't like crypto but they love Jane Street. It's. It's an odd. It's not take but people are, people are having fun with the timeline. Here's the thing. So, so the, the insider trading allegation, apparently they had a group chat. They were talking with some. There was somebody at Jane street who had previously worked at Terraform. Oh wow. And so that was. Yeah, that. That individual at Jane street was like talking with do and the team. The only issue is it's a public blockchain. Right. And so the allegation is that five minutes after the Terraform team pulled money out of one of the liquidity pools, Jane street also pulled money out. But theoretically they could have had software that said like if, if any amount of liquidity is pulled out, like you know, basically like get out before there's kind of like a run on the bank. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see where this goes. But Jane street, it's like endlessly fascinating because it's such a quiet organization. I mean they do some tech talks and stuff but many people don't fully understand all the strategies that are going on over there. So it's been a fun. They have a good podcast strategy though. They have a great podcast strategy. They're advertising on door cash but they also put out tech talks and they, and they bring guest lecturers to talk for like an hour. They did a great one about the custom hardware that they used to run some of their systems. That's very cool. Highly recommend it. You know what they should do? They should start streaming these on restream one livestream 30 plus destinations. If Jane street wants to multi stream they should go to restream.com anthropic announces a new feature on Claude Max which allows its users to get fit without going to the gym or taking GLP1 shots. Just prompting on their keyboards. And Planet Fitness is down 5% on the news. And that is a joke. Due to their Q4 earnings, Conor McGregor is pretty excited about a new game. They're just, they got a game for everything now. It's like bull marketing games right now. There's so many games as memes. This new game is called Capybara Simulator. A relaxing game where you become a capybara, explore the forest and do nothing. It looks quite enjoyable. I think TVPN needs a game. Yeah, we definitely need to build some sort of game. This is a true. This is a lower lift than like a real time strategy game. I think Soalto is trying to ship. Yeah, we definitely should. But Conor McGregor says take my money. I mean clearly there's demand for Capybara simulated 38,000 likes. Yeah, we should move the goalposts. We need to be able to vibe code a game that's fun pretty quickly. I don't know what that means. One hour leading. You think you could do it in an hour? An hour is pretty fast. Exactly. If I have the Cerebras chip. Yeah. If I use X on Spark. Yeah, yeah, I think that might be the solution. What were the other simulators that we looked at? Data Center Simulator. And then there was another one that we looked at that was funny. There were a few. There's been so many of these of these games that have popped up. What was the one we were talking about yesterday? That was Data Center Simulator. Insider Trading Simulator. Oh, Insider Trading Simulator. That one's good. Yeah, there's definitely, there's definitely a variety of these. Let me tell you about Gusto. The unified platform for payroll, benefits and HR built to evolve with modern small and medium sized businesses. There is some controversy. Tell me about this timeline. Tell me about this. Leading report is putting, is censoring words that don't need to be censored. In this case the word war. And I was thinking, why would they do this? Yes. But as I was reading over it the first time, I noticed that it makes you kind of pause and kind of think about, okay, what are they actually saying? And then you're thinking, why would they censor that? And I think what they're doing is they're sort of hacking your attention to drive their posts up in the algo because people are pausing, clicking, reading it maybe instead of reading like quickly, what does this mean? Yeah, yeah, yeah, that kind of thing. So the original headline is breaking Representative AOC calls for no war with Iran. The first time I read this, they put a little minus sign where A should be in war. It's W R. It sort of like rewired my brain and I didn't see the no. So it looked like AOC calls for war with Iran. Because I kind of jumped ahead. It was hard to read. And that actually does, I think, increase the virality. I think you're onto something here in 9 millimeter. SMG agrees with you. News account that censors the word war. You guys gotta stop. It is very, very odd, especially because on X that's certainly not a word that's like censored at all. Yeah. If anything they're gonna be like let's many people as we possibly can. But if you look at the, if you look at the comments on this post, people are not talking about a potential conflict with Iran. They're talking about not typing out war. So the top comment. Why are you not typing out war? Censoring the word war. What are we in elementary school? Elementary school. Why are they subtracting R from W? Why am I missing? You know, and people are like very confused about why they would do this. But that drives a bunch of engagement and virality. So very, very odd scenario here. Speaking of war, Musk XAI and the Pentagon reach a deal to deploy Grok in classified systems. If you loved Grok on the timeline, you're going to love him in our classified system. I guess they did a deal with the government broadly, but that was probably for the unclassified systems. But now it's getting access to of the classified systems. Any Terminator fans out there are going to be having a great time with this news. Yeah, it's going to be wild. Let me tell you about Lambda Lambda is the super intelligence cloud building AI super plus supercomputers for training and inference that scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands. Deepseek is responding to Distillgate and they are looking for a public relations harmony manager. Let's read one of the best job postings I've ever seen says Chris Paxton. It's pretty interesting. They say Hangzhou, ancient capital of the Wuye Kingdom where King Chian Lu bequeathed to his descendants the instructions serve the Central Plains with grace. This is so do not cling to territory. Every job posting should start like this. From this ground rose. This sounds like a Willmanitis essay. Yeah. From the ground rose the seeds of Song Dynasty civilization. The morning bells of Ling Yin Temple. The rain falling on Westlake. And this is a job posting pr. This Post Amazing. In recent days certain misunderstandings and noise have appeared in the external public sphere. We have noticed that large numbers of kind hearted observers have spontaneously spoken on our behalf for which we are genuinely grateful while simultaneously feeling a degree of unease. We do not wish for anyone to suffer on our account, including those peers who currently find themselves navigating difficult public waters. In order to honor the legacy of Wuye and the spirit of Mahayana Bhatva Path, we are now recruiting a public relations harmony manager. So clearly this has been translated from Mandarin into English, but it sounds pretty cool if you ask me. Yeah, the distill gate is going back and forth. Everyone's distilling everyone else. We distill you, they distill us. There was something about I don't know how real this is, but when you ask Claude Sonnet 4.6 in Chinese, what model are you? It responds in Chinese, I am Deepseek. Is that real? I tried it in the chat model, it didn't work. It said it was like Sonnet 460. Apparently it might just be in the API. Okay, maybe I should test. Yeah, it's like just open router. But that makes sense. I mean Will Brown was making a great point about this, that there is distillation where you're aggressively trying to farm responses from the API for training data. But then there's also just crawling the web because if you just download every X article, you're probably going to get a lot of GROK and GPT and CLAUDE responses in there and then that will just update your training corpus. And so there's a whole bunch of different ways that you could just wind up with a bunch of training data that leads to this type of response. But I'm sure there'll be more back and forth, more legal debates over what's going on. There was some dust up about someone was able to extract 95.8% of Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone from Claude Sonnet at the same time. There's a question about like does this actually reduce sales of Harry Potter? Like are there damages associated with this that would be sort of harder to prove. There's so many people have talked about so many different pieces of Harry Potter. It's not crazy to me that an LLM could just reconstitute that. From the Internet. Yeah, from the Internet now there should probably be like a harness in place that says, oh, this person's trying to just get me to give them a free book. Like no, send them a link to Amazon so they can buy it and maybe give me an affiliate fee. Don't just give them the thing for free because that's violation of ip. But if you're. If you're being really tricky and you're trying to sneak out a whole bunch of different pieces one at a time and then reconstitute it like, yeah, I'm not surprised. This is possible. It's not like the worst thing ever. Anyway, let's. Well, we have the Carlson brothers joining in just a few minutes. Are there any other timeline posts you want to go through? And while you look at that, let me tell you about FIN AI, the number one AI agent for customer service. If you want AI to handle your customer support, go to FIN AI. Where are we in the. Yeah. Data acknowledgments FATI says my son asking me a lot of questions. It's a distillation attack, obviously. Do not. Do not let your children distillation attack. They could become like a mini version of you. They could. Anyways, I believe we have our first guest. We do. So let's bring.
Here. Speaking of war, Musk, Xai and the Pentagon reach a deal to deploy Grok in classified systems. If you loved Grok on the timeline, you're going to love him in our classified system. I guess they did a deal with the government, broadly, but that was probably for the unclassified systems. But now it's getting access to the classified systems. Any Terminator fans out there are going to be having a great time with this news. It's going to be wild. Let me tell you about.
Because boy, do we have a show for you today, folks. We got the Collison brothers joining together at 11:40. Then we going over to Bill Gurley, the height mogger himself. He's 6 foot 9. He mogs me. Oh, he mogs me. It's over for me. He mogs me. That's why we said you can't come to the studio. You can't be seen next to John Coogan in person. You're staying remote. The right pair of cowboy boots. Yeah, you might have it. The right pair of lifts as well inside those cowboy boots. Then we got Ivan from Notion and a whole bunch more funding announcements during the lightning round. Roon, Reiner Devanche and a ton of other folks are joining. It's a crazy show. James from Profound. James is. Yeah, James, New unicorn. Very fun. Well, Linear of course is the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise workspaces on Linear are using agents. So the story behind the Citrini story, I had some takeaways. My big update mentally was just that, you know, we are the sell side research now. Basically like new we as in not substack but X and substack, like independent researchers and analysts are really moving the markets. I feel like Ben Thompson has been a source of alpha for the market for a long time. He's been a source of investment theses but he doesn't put a buy or sell rating on things and much more long term. Long term, exactly. Here's how strategies are converging. Exactly. The market is evolving. Make your own decision. Yes. And then I see like Semianalysis is thinking more in like a couple years out and it's still like there are. They get held accountable for, oh, you said Microsoft was going to do this and they did that, blah blah, blah. And they have a different model that they actually sell to hedge funds. And so they're very much in the research business. But what's interesting about Semianalysis and a lot of these other independent analysis firms is that they're not sitting inside banks. We are very much used to sell side research being done by Morgan Stanley or Bank of America, Goldman Sachs. You get these equity research reports that your friends send you the PDFs for because you can't afford them. No, seriously, if you're working in an industry, get the sell side research report on your industry as fast as possible. It's very, very informative. There's always good data in there. But yeah, my big update was like, wow, okay, this is like viral post that completely broke containment. There's people Making tiktoks about it now. And also it's on the COVID of the Wall Street. Over cells. Yeah, doom sells doom cells. Yeah, oversell. That's the, yeah, that's one of the narratives. And there was this funny, funny thing about like, oh, well, it's just one. It's just one scenario. It's just one scenario. Why? It's low probability. And then let's pull up Eric's. Eric Sifu was like, was like, yeah, it's just one scenario. But. But you only gave us one scenario and you spent 100 hours on that scenario. What do you expect people to take away from it? Except this is the one scenario that you think is most worth considering. But of course, it is possible that software is cooked. Everything's cooked. And if there's a 5% chance that everything's cooked, yeah, the market should probably sell off by a couple percent. And the market didn't even really sell off a couple percent. A couple names went down a few percent. Some of them already popped back up. Markets I think, doing pretty well today. Yeah, green on the dow, green on the nasdaq, and a lot of green on that ticker down there, which is of course provided by public.com investing for those who take it seriously. They got stocks, options, bonds, crypto treasuries and more with great customer service. And I'm also going to tell you about Okta. OKTA helps you assign every AI agent a trusted identity. So you get the power of AI without the risk. Secure every agent, secure any. Let's head over to Derek Thompson, the Thompson Thompsonator. He says, I really want people to see the story above the story here, which is that whether you're reading Citrini or listening to Jamie Dimon at a cocktail party, the conversation about AI is a marketplace of competing science fiction narratives. That's not to say I think the technology is a parlor trick. You know, we covered this a couple weeks ago. He's feeling, he's feeling the, the AGI that might be a little bit putting it too aggressively, but certainly he sees the potential impact. But Derek says, but rather that the level of uncertainty is so high and the quality and supply of real world, real time information about AI's macroeconomic effects so paltry that very serious. That very serious. Conversations about AI are often more literary than genuinely analytical. And I think that observation sets up another important point. I feel lucky to be able to have conversations about the frontier of AI with executives and builders at Frontier Labs, economists, investors and other AI folks at off the record dinners where important truths can theoretically be shared without risk. I can't emphasize enough that nobody knows anything except for us is about as close to the reality here as three words are going to get you. Nobody knows what's going to happen this year or next year or the year after that. There is no secret cigar filled room of people except for us, except the back room. I think we do have some knowledge MOG cigars back there. We have unique access to some authentic postcard from the future. When you drill down underneath the bluster, the boosterism, the fear, the anxiety, what's there at the bottom is genuine uncertainty. A vacuum into which storytelling is flooding. The Frontier Labs don't really know what they're building exactly, but we do. And economists don't really know how to model the thing they claim they're building, but we do. I wish more people talked about and thought about this subject through that sort of lens. We're trying to model the economy, wide effects of a technology whose properties the Frontier Labs can't even really describe yet. Whatever you think of AI today, be prepared to change your mind soon. Yeah, this was something with all up yesterday is I didn't. When I asked him why. Why do you think that so many of the Internet predictions were deeply wrong, his answer was, it's just a continuum. AI is just a continuum. And so like give it more time basically. Yeah. The rebuttal that I heard from him when you said that, he was like, well, no, like look at all those predictions did come true. And it was like, yeah, but over 20 years. Which is like wildly different than two years because the Fear article is called the 2028. Exactly, exactly. And so also, so if you tell me also, so many institutions just adapt it. Yeah. Like if you go to somebody and you say, hey, in 20 years your job is gonna be radically different. They're like, I hope so. Like I'm gonna be super bored doing the same thing for the next 20 years. Don't worry, I'll be on to the next year. In two years, there's gonna be no industry that you're currently in. Everyone's gonna be like, oh, okay. Like that's crazy. It's wildly different to be like, you have 20 years to adjust what you do. Like, you know, if you're like, you know, if you're in Hollywood and you're like, okay, I gotta learn digital filmmaking, I gotta learn how to integrate cgi. I gotta learn AI as a tool. That's way different than just like next year we will be one shotting Hollywood. Films and you will have no employment prospects whatsoever, not even as a prompter, because the labs will be prompting them themselves for AI videos. And maybe that's possible, but I have a feeling that it's just like it's not a year away, it's not two years away, it's a little bit farther still on the 10 year camp, still on the Kurzweil timelines, but. But interestingly I'm impatient about it. I want it to go faster, I want the acceleration, I want the progress. I think the progress is good. So I'm not a doomer or pessimist. I'm just trying to grapple with the fact that I had to wait four years in between GPT3 and models being good enough to not hallucinate. I had to wait another four years between the early Dall E experiments and the nano bananas. Like it's, it has felt like, like something happens and I'm like oh wow. Like okay, like AI can generate images but it's sort of sloppy. And then I wait like four years and it's like okay, it's like a lot less sloppy but it's like still not like dialed. Like it's. It went from 90% to 99% and I'm waiting for it to get to 99.9999-9999-9999-9999%. That's where I want it to go anyway. Is Doordash cooked? Let's go over to Ben Thompson on stratecherie. He said, okay, fine, while I'm here. The DoorDash example is just unbearably dumb. He is a believer in the power of DoorDash to weather the AI storm. I saw that the DoorDash CEO put out like an SEC letter to the investors. Did you see that? Like full PDF filed with the sec. Like this is. This is sort of guidance but telling the investor base like here's what's not going to change. Like basically disregard the Citrini report. Disregard Sci Fi doom slot. He says, set aside for now the question of agents and aggregation. That's a post that is definitely in my mental cue. What is notable about the assertion is the total denial of any positive reason for DoorDash to exist or and to be so successful. There's no awareness that DoorDash provides provided a massive consumer benefit restaurant food at home from scratch. I like Keith Rabois. Take that. Doordash is the I'm hungry button on your phone. And then there's a whole bunch of crazy things that you have to do to make that happen. Make that button work. I ordered doordash last night. I felt like I did it in protest of the doom. I was like, I'm still supporting, I'm riding with doordash. There's no awareness that doordash provided a massive consumer benefit from scratch, that doordash massively increase the addressable market for restaurants, or that doordash provided brand new jobs for millions of drivers. Instead, the article just sort of takes it as a given that doordash exists and that it is a rent extractor preying on weak willed humans and their habits. This is the exact sort of view taken by some of the most frustrating anti monopoly activists. All large successful tech companies exist not because they created a market with virtuous cycles solving all kinds of thorny problems along the way, but rather because the government didn't regulate hard enough. I was thinking about in antitrust regulation, you know how they'll stop two firms from joining because that will create a monopoly. But they don't really have a tool in the tool chest for stopping a company from just shutting down and stopping competing. Like if Xbox goes away. As people are predicting doom around Xbox, PlayStation gets a lot of more powerful. Obviously it's like the only game on the block. And so should the FTC have a hammer to be like, no, you gotta lock in Asha. You gotta make more Xbox games. You gotta compete harder. We want you to get GTA 6 out exclusively on Xbox faster to put the screws to Sony. You don't have time to spend three months gaming. No, no, no. Lock in. Give us a new Halo. Give us a new modern warfare. Give us a new fable. I don't know. What are the other great Xbox games? Throughout the years, I was never that big of an Xbox gamer. Never owned an xbox, Never owned an XBO Xbox. Wow. Oh, I'm a gamer. You never say that. I wasn't. Didn't have the. What was an Xbox back then? It was like 300, 400 bucks. Expensive. Anyway, let me tell you about Gemini 3.1 Pro. Gemini 3.1 Pro is here with a more capable baseline. It's like, it's great for super complex tasks like visualizing difficult concepts, synthesizing data into a single view, or bringing creative projects to life. I was thinking about the like the SaaS apocalypse in the context of the fact that today's launches. No, there are a lot of launches, but. Well, no, the Disconnect in the SaaS apocalypse is that AI native SaaS is getting funded at an insane Rate while you have these massive sell offs in the public market. Yeah, there is a little bit of disruption. There's private companies that are getting lots and lots and lots of funding that if they were public would have traded down 20% over the last week or so. Continue. The thing I was thinking about was there's this whole idea that you'll be able to build your own CRM or your own ERP and vibe code it and open source CRMs exist. Like there's one called Sweet CRM. There's ODO, there's ERPNext. There's Plain for task management, open Project Redmine. There are open source alternatives to almost every piece of software. There's an open source Photoshop that people use on Linux and they've never really gotten adoption. I used an open source forum software for a while and very quickly I called the person that was maintaining it and was like, I'll pay 1000 bucks to just like do this for me. And then it became a managed service very quickly. There's an open source Capybara simulator. Is that open source? No, but it's interesting because open source has always been this pressure on SaaS and it's always withstood that. And yeah, maybe if you can just prompt it and it feels like emailing your SaaS provider to reconfigure things. That is a real pressure. But. But I think it's underrated that open source CRMs have existed for decades and never really taken off because there's something else that's valuable there. But Tyler has a. He thinks everything's gonna get slopped. I think that's like mostly cope like the comp to open source stuff. Why? It's just annoying to maintain. So no one ever does it and you're kind of just paying whoever to maintain it, right? Well, no, no, no, no. In open source like you don't need to pay someone to maintain it. You can just use the open source version of the open source thing. It's like you're basically paying someone to maintain it. Yeah, yeah, host it, manage it, make sure uptime's. But like models keep getting better and they'll just like do all that for you. They'll do all that for you. And it's like, yeah, I think that's like very obvious. Yeah, it is possible that you would just say like, okay, run in a loop and just go around and fix everything and if there's uptime or security patches like patch them immediately. Well, the open source gets better. There's two narratives, right? There's the, okay, everyone will just vibe code everything in any department. You can just have an employee just make the software, tell the agent not to make mistakes or tell the agent, hey, fix this thing. So that's one thing. And I feel like that is maybe a part of the sell off, but the bigger reason for the sell off is maybe what Derek Thompson is talking about, which is that the world is getting weirder. A lot of people are feeling the acceleration. And if you just don't know what the world looks like or what work looks like in five years, you want to take some risk off, you're not willing to pay the same revenue multiple that you were three years ago. Yeah, I do want to dig into that point that you mentioned earlier a little bit more, which is like you have the Tyler philosophy of you could vibe code everything and the agents will be able to go around and maintain and everyone will have personalized software individuals where the value accrues to the person using the software, but then also the lab providing the software, the inference. And then there's like the private markets boom right now in AI enabled software, where companies are saying, well, we were able to pull our roadmap way forward, we got to an MVP in a weekend, and we're able to ship features way faster. So when we onboard new clients and they ask for something, it's like, boom. And we get it done in a few days as opposed to a few weeks of engineering Sprint. And so the narrative is like, we're moving faster and we're creating like AI enabled products that couldn't exist otherwise. And it feels like both of those can't be true. So I don't know which way Ben Thompson called out the real estate example. He took a segment out. This is from Citrini. Even places we thought insulated by the value of human relationships proved fragile. Real estate where buyers had tolerated. I'm saying this in an extra dramatic voice. Love it. Where buyers had tolerated 5 to 6% commissions for decades because of information asymmetry between agent and consumer crumbled Once AI agents equipped with MLS access and decades of transaction data could replicate the knowledge base instantly. And then Ben Thompson says the real estate example makes the exact opposite point. The author thinks it does. The truth is that the Internet already obsoleted real estate agents in terms of information flow. You can go online right now and get a listing of every house for sale with pictures, its full history, et cetera. There is no information asymmetry, but rather information abundance. The fact that real estate agents still exist despite that shift is actually one of the more compelling arguments that humans will remarkably. Will be remarkably resourceful in terms of giving themselves jobs to do even in areas where they ought to be pointless. Yeah. How hard is it to disintermediate a real estate agent? Does it happen on the buy side or the sell side? Like if I find a place on Zillow and I go knock on the door and so. Or I write them a letter and I say, hey, I want to buy this, but I don't have a real estate license and I'm not using a realtor and I don't want to pay a fee. Will they be like, cool? I think, I mean, you can do it from either side, but I will just say the reason that you don't is that I'm in process. I mean, currently in escrow on a property. And the guy representing me is going to make a lot of money, but he's extremely helpful and he does a lot of real estate transactions. I don't do any. Yeah, I mean, I don't. I've done one in my life prior to this. So, like, he's in. It's like. Yeah. Technically, entrepreneurs could negotiate their own legal docs with Claude. We have a buddy who got a real estate license. Right. Didn't Spencer from day job? Oh, yeah, they did. Yeah. So. So it's possible. Yeah, there's his real estate license, but. Well, yeah. And Spencer is probably a lot better now that he can use ChatGPT or Gemini or any of these models to do. To do stuff like this. But that being said, you're paying for effectively therapy throughout the deal and like general guidance and I can't be your therapist. It's doable. I don't know, Tyler, will you ever use a real estate agent or will you ban them on principle? Go direct. I mean, seems like I think models can do this. Okay, we'll see over what timeline, like total real estate commission. Well, it's like, I don't think I'm gonna be buying a house in the next two years. Yeah, but houses will be bought over the next two years. So what will the fall in real estate commissions be over the next two years? I think, like, okay, you're seeing a lot of these, like, big rounds of the big labs, all the researchers gonna be buying houses. I think a lot of them are gonna try to do it without real estate. You think so? Yeah, I would. I'm sure that someone's gonna write like a cool blog post about this. Okay. That's the thing, though. Cool. Blog post. That's the benchmark. It's. It's viral article, not actual impact on the economy. I'm sure it's, like, gonna work, like, so. So right now we should have you buy a property yourself. Buy that town in Maine. That village. Yes, get the village. Anyway, speaking of day job, they just did a fantastic ad campaign with none other than just an ad campaign. But then came an entire brand. While we pulled this up, let me tell you about Applovin. Profitable advertising made Easy with Axon AI. Get access to over 1 billion daily active users and grow your business today. So Kim Kardashian, she has a product called Drink Update. And here is the photo shoot from none other than Day Job, some of our closest friends and folks who we worked with on the TBPN brand. Looks very cool. It's crazy because I know another founder who has an energy drink company called Update. Wait, really? That is cooked now. Well, I don't know who's cooked. If Kim Kardashian is coming for your consumer product brand, I feel like you're in trouble. She's almost a lawyer. What if she almost sues you? What if she. Oh, yeah, she's close to being. What if she uses Claude to pass the bar and then she sues you? Oh, maybe. I actually think this company is effectively just relaunching with Kim. There we go. Yes, yes, yes. This is a common thing. Okay, okay, I got it. I met this founder a while ago. They have a special ingredient in here that's sort of a caffeine alternative. It's called paraxanthine. So, yeah, they've been building this for a while. I know it's available in. It has promethazine in it. No, no lean. No lean. But paraxanthine is jitter free and crash free. They're saying you can have a free lunch. John, I like it. I'm here. You like the sound of that? They should have called it Faust. I like a Faustian bargain. Anyway, Doug over at Fabricated Knowledge, who's coming on the show tomorrow at from semi analysis, he said, okay, finally read the Citrini piece. No one knows the future. And I think that there's a lot of disclaimers like being like, yeah, this is p. Speculative. But the core thrust of it is that information work itself has a real premium in pricing power that has been embedded into it. And that one way trade can go backwards really hard all at once. I seriously think there's a huge risk. And while prices go down, we just consume more prices going back down one time 50% we net consume less for a bit. I have been and continue to be worried about deflation. Something I think is that selling tokens raw is probably bad, but selling solutions is probably really really good. Think the problem is good enough is a good enough model that can that kind of eat a solution no matter what. And so let's say Claude made cowork go giga expensive and it's 10k seat a year. Great less deflation. But China low end model massively eats that. It's a race to the bottom. Anyways, great piece, always appreciate it as always. Citrini this is the first post I've read where I've said maybe it should be passed through an LLM. Maybe that needed an EM dash to make it more readable. I love you Doug. I was stumbling over that and we will close the Citrini mega cycle with the close of the software megacycle as has been predicted by Will Menaitis. He says the software mega cycle started with PayPal going public and it will with PayPal going private. We will see how long that takes. PayPal could be public for another decade, who knows. But it's certainly getting beat up in the public markets right now. Anyway, Bern Hobart says hearing that the latest Anthropic job offer is a negative $10 million salary you gotta pay to work there, but you get access to their upcoming blog posts and tweets 24 hours in advance and permission to trade in your personal account with no restrictions. I don't see how any other labs have any talent left. Of course he's joking, but very funny to think about the insider trading that could be happening based on if the only thing is, if it came out that Anthropic was effectively day trading against the companies that they want to sell their models to, it would be basically over. It would create a very anti anthropic alliance for sure from the business community and potentially the government as well. Anyway, you don't want to be in hot water like that. You want to be using turbopuffer, serverless vector and full text search built from first principles and object storage. Fast 10x cheaper, extremely scalable. Stacy, who's been on the show before, says telling my kids that if they don't clean their room, Citrini will come for them. Dangerous stuff. Dangerous stuff. Anyway, this is like a lunar landing but for business and technology Podcast oh Matt Slotnick is sharing the news that Salesforce Chair and CEO Marc Benioff to discuss Q4 and full year results on TBPN Company to debut evolved earnings show format. We're doing on a show with Salesforce. He's putting on a show. We're so excited for this. Anyway, in other big company announcement news. There's a lot of announcements. You may have missed this one. You may have been. Oh, Bill Gurley's book launched. Oh, Stripe announced a massive fundraising round. Oh, Profound is announcing a funding round. Well, there's bigger news, and that's that McDonald's just launched the biggest burger ever. The Big Arch. The Big Arch. It finally arrives in the UN in the United States. To me, I'm thinking this. How did they not have this burger the whole time? How have they not done this before? I feel like that's been more of Jack in the Box's wheelhouse is like the quarter pounder. The $6 burger. That was a thing. That was a campaign for a while before Tyler's time, I'm sure. But the $6 burger was something that you'd see, right? $6 burger has not been a thing the entire time Tyler's been alive. No, he doesn't. Inflation has come for the burger. The $6 burger was an ad that you would see right in between ads for different Xbox games. On the original Xbox, for sure. I. Congrats. There was a time. There was a time before you were born. When I was just a boy, my parents would give me, like, 10 bucks, and that was, like, enough. They'd be like, that should be worth two meals. So make it last. Make it last. Yeah.