Double Blaze. Triple blaze. Double kill. Five color. Raw. Wins. Team deathmatch. We are experts. Triple Blaze. Let's just roll. Market clearing order inbound. Come on, get up. We are surrounded by journalists. All due position. Drink 1. Strike 2, Activate. Go, Retriever. Market clearing order inbound. I see multiple journalists on the horizon. Standby, Founder. You're watching DBBS. Today is Friday. It's the day before Valentine's Day. 2026. That's right. We're live from the TVPN Ultradome Temple of technology. We should have mentioned Valentine's Day. Yeah. Earlier two months ago and then again one month ago. I think most of the audience is prepped for sure. But we have some ideas, some recommendations if you're looking for advice. This Valentine's Day, we of course, live from the TV pan ultradom. Temple of technology. The fortress of finance, the capital of capital. And here's an idea for Valentine's Day. Ramp.com this Valentine's Day, show her you care about your future together by putting all of your couple's spending on Ramp. Because nothing says I will provide for our family like pulling out a ramp. Card. Knows you handle business. That's right. Anyway, handling business. The big news. Anthropic has raised $30 billion at 380 billion post money valuation. We've all seen the revenue chart. 10x growth four years in a row. 100 million. A billion now. 14 billion. Will they do 100? That's the question. Will they be at $100 billion revenue run rate by the end of the year? They're growing on track to hit that, which is crazy and completely unprecedented. But again, they're going after all of SaaS, they're going after all of software, they're going after all of labor, all. Of white collar work and your job specifically. Yeah, it's not looking good for you. No, we're joking. Never doom. Never doom. There's plenty of opportunity. There are plenty of good potential outcomes. Dario has been on Duar Keshe Patel today and he did something else with Ross Douthit. And so there's a number of places where you can go to hear his latest takes on the good ending and what he's guiding towards Be interesting to follow. The question is, what happens to the companies that are currently under pressure with the Anthropic narrative? They have to answer this question of is Anthropic just going to steamroll you? What is your real source of strength? Yeah, not just Anthropic, but the labs. Every YC company that is building an AI native Any company that is, you know, slapping AI native on their website. Yeah, everyone's going after the opportunity. So we coined a phrase, we decided to coin something. Yes, it was time to coin out. And before we tell you the coinage, let me tell you about Cisco this Valentine's Day. Give her the gift of enterprise grade networking this Valentine's Day. So your home wi fi never drops during movie night because nothing kills the mood like buffering during a ROM com. Get on Cisco, head over to cisco dot com. So, yeah, we decided. So what is a phrase that you can generally apply to businesses that can survive and then hopefully thrive during this moment in time? Intelligence is too cheap to meter. Yeah. So the question, you know, earning cycle, last couple weeks, every CEO has gone on if basically, like if you had to answer the question, like what? Talk about the threat of AI. If you just had to answer the question. Yeah, like basically the companies that were just. The entire earnings call was just about generally about AI. You know, if you're like a core weave or something like that, that's a little bit more straightforward. But if you have to answer the question, do you have a durable moat? Right now with AI progress, your stock is probably going to sell off, but you know, either way, kind of however you answer it. But there's a second question which is like, are you a true beneficiary? So like, do you have a durable moat? And then are you a true beneficiary? So we decided to coin the phrase unsloppable. Unsloppable. So these are companies that we'll get into that have some type of moat in an era where it feels like more code could be written in the next 12 months than in all of human history. I was kind of running the numbers. It seems possible, specifically not. Okay, you're a company that has just spent 10 years writing a bunch of lines of code and it would take a startup a lot of time and money and they would have to hire a lot of engineers and write a lot of code to create a copy of what you have. No. So like, to rebuild Salesforce as a platform, you would have to spend billions of. Historically, you would have had to spend billions of dollars hiring thousands of software engineers to piece by piece build out all of the functionality. At Salesforce, of course you could build vertical solutions and get some amount of traction, but in general, the idea was like there was some effectively just an engineering moat and that there was a lot of code that you'd have to write to effectively compete. So I talked about in the newsletter Today set the table. First, what's going on in the market? Yeah, so software has undergone the largest non recessionary 12 month drawdown in over 30 years. It's minus 34% wiping out $2 trillion of market cap from the peak. This is JP Morgan as of a couple days ago. AI threat sparks historic Software Stock Crash Goldman Sachs warns of Newspaper like decline. I love the newspaper. What's wrong with newspapers? Still got it. Still got it. And then as of yesterday, over the prior eight trading sessions, 20% of the S&P 500 had a drawdown of 7% or more in a single session according to the compound. That's a lot. Quickly, before we continue, let me tell you about the New York Stock Exchange. This Valentine's Day I recommend flying to Manhattan, take her to the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, ipo, your company and ring the opening bell together. Great. Your love just went public. Good one John. So yeah, yeah. So continuing. So I wrote everything was great when we were disrupting manual workflows. But as we enter the software singularity, we are having the uncomfortable experience of disrupting ourselves. Assume the marginal cost of software development goes to zero. If you are a software company where the where you're moat was that a competitor would have to spend a billion dollars to hire a bunch of software engineers to write millions of lines of code to create a product and you have no other moats, it's going to be rough. Thankfully there are moats that are unaffected by coding agents and effectively zero cost software development. Peter Thiel PT outlined four key sources of monopoly power in zero to one back in 2014. These are proprietary technology, network effects, economies of scale and brand or you can think of as trust. Most of these still hold, but proprietary technology by itself is no longer sufficient. As a moat in some cases. If you have a patent to a GLP1 drug that is a proprietary technology that will give you pricing power probably for as long as the patent holds. And there are patents on certain pieces of technology that even if they can be cloned or rederived from first principles with your million geniuses in the data center, the first person to patent it gets to reap that value. And that's just the way our. And the issue with software, how many a bunch of designer friends of mine have like a design patent on a specific kind of can they enforce it workflow? Yeah, and it's cool to say that you have a patent, but it's not. Yeah, proprietary technology can just be okay, we have a big software system, but oftentimes it's more like we have proprietary, like something that's regulated, something that's a cornered resource, something that's, that's scarce and will remain scarce. But yes, if your proprietary technology is just. You're the only person with this particular Python script, that's, that, that's probably going away. But network effects aren't. And some of the economies of scale, some of the liquidity on these platforms is going to be durable. You can vibe code a. I was talking to Dara Khosrashari at Uber about this. You can vibe code a pickup app that, you know, looks like Uber has a map, lets you click the button, accepts payment. But if there's no one on the other side of that network to actually come and pick you up, your, your, your Uber, Uber clone is dead in the water now. Yeah. Or if a customer, if somebody does pick it up and the customer has a terrible experience, do you have the, do you have the resources to actually make it right? Yeah, but Uber works because they spend a bunch of money getting to scale and cloning that scale is difficult. Now the whole self driving car thing is separate because you bring clanker. Yeah, we're working on that one. That'll happen. But there is, there are a set of businesses that will have to contend with the, the clanker fication of the economy. But that's, that's so becoming unslappable means two things. First, your business actually has to derive its economic power from a moat that is unslobable. And second, you need to clearly communicate that to shareholders. Right now, if the market thinks you're just a bunch of lines of code, you're cooked. Tech companies we think of as unsloppable. You have hardware, Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Cisco, Broadcom, SK, Hynix, Western digital data centers. So neoclouds, things like Core Weave, Lambda social networks, YouTube, Instagram, X, LinkedIn, even thinking Roblox. Right. They can be not just they have the network and they can be a beneficiary of AI because if it's easier to make games, a lot more people will make games. Maybe you'll get more usage marketplaces, Airbnb, Uber, DoorDash, IP holders, Disney, Netflix, Warner Brothers. I think if you have a lot of IP right now and the cost to produce great content drops dramatically, you're going to benefit from that. And then platforms, things like YouTube and Spotify as well. I said it's been an incredibly rough couple of weeks for public market CEOs. Really disheartening on the show CEOs been putting up some great quarters and then you know, they're trading down between 7 and 20%. There are two main question everyone wants to know even if they already sold your stock to buy Adams. One, do you have a durable moat in the software singularity? Two, are you a true beneficiary of AI? Many CEOs are still struggling to answer number one, because it doesn't really matter what you say. Just having to answer the question equals a sell off. And two, this one can really only be answered in the numbers. You aren't an immediate AI beneficiary if revenue is not accelerating. Also separately, there are a bunch of crazy things happening in the broader economy right now. I think Besant went on CNBC at 4am it brought out the big dog. I haven't been able to catch it yet. It was 7:00am Eastern. Yeah, 4:00am Pacific. Very, very early for us. It's possible to be unsloppable, but not an obvious beneficiary. But you'll still likely sell off. As the market digests and interrogates the actual real world impacts of coding agents, some industries will be more resistant to change. Other industries will be revealed to have a secret source of market power that was underappreciated in the before times. What I was thinking was Nielsen. This company was, you know, in one way, Nielsen Ratings, Nielsen Data. A lot of consumer packaged goods companies use this. I'm sure Matina is looking at how is this Yerba Mate selling in this store? And you go to Nielsen, you pay them and they give you data and it just feels like an interface to sales data. But they have this whole network and you just have to pay for it. And it's not really something that you can just spin up. I don't know. What do you think? I mean, isn't that kind of like what Simile is doing? We had them on yesterday. They're like trying. Maybe you can kind of do like polls or something about how market will. That's more for simulating prediction. The bigger one is like, is like. Like I would want to know. Similarly would actually want that data to update their models. Yeah, like you want to know, okay, what stores are actually turning my product? Which store should I be doing promos in? Which stores should I be doubling down on running advertising in? Or what chains are working, should I push more into or even just, hey, I need to go to one chain and say I'm working. Like Target's working, so Walmart should carry me. They're not really going to Accept just a simulation of that data. They're going to want to know that an independent rating agency sort of rated. Gold Rock just bought unsloppable.com quickly. Before we move on, let me tell you about Applovin. This Valentine's Day, use Applovin's Axon AI to serve her hyper targeted ads for exactly the jewelry she wants. That way she'll be extra excited when she unwraps presents on the big day. Great call capping off the newsletter. I said a lot of the software market feels like the office equipment and imaging sector in the 90s, so companies like Sharp, Canon, Panasonic. Revenue was still up and to the right, but widespread adoption of the Internet, emails and PDFs was on the horizon. Even today you'll still find a fax machine in every doctor's office and many of the giants of that era are still around. But if you stayed in those names, you would have missed out on generational gains by simply being long PDF had to go long PDF. So yeah, if you look at these companies, you know, Panasonic still massive company and they've obviously adapted over time but, but you know, it's a, it's a. Shift from growth stock to value stock. Investors are less willing to pay for earnings that might come 10 years out because they're worried about those or 20 years out instead of they're asking what will my return on invested capital be this year? What will the dividend be this year? How much cash will you give me back if I invest for a one year time horizon or shorter or longer? Let me tell you about TurboPuffer this holiday Valentine's Day. Here's an idea. TurboPuffer store Vector Embeddings of every romantic moment you've shared in TurboPuffer. So you can do semantic search for that time in Paris and actually find it. Turbofish for a serverless vector and full text search. It's built from first principles and object storage. It's fast, 10x cheaper and it's extremely scalable. So no matter how many memories you're cramming in turbopuffer, you're good to go. You're good to go this Valentine's Day. Just do it anyway. It will be interesting. I think that there will be, that there will be a reckoning around who is able to reveal a true moat and help people, help the market understand what their source of strength is. Whether it's liquidity on their platform, the network effect, the ip. If they have real IP that's defensible but just Having a big bag of code right now is a little bit of a wait since you're seeing so many companies that are saying, well our software engineers aren't even writing the code anymore. Yes, we're advancing our products, but so many companies are going all in. It's also, it's pretty wild how long it's taken for the public markets to react to this kind of one shot in concept or this zero marginal cost code coding concept where we were having these Same conversations in Q1 of last year being like what are the implications when you can just put in the prompt box build me XYZ tool, right? And it took a while for the models to make progress, but even a year ago it was pretty obvious that you would get to some point where you could one shot a big platform. Of course, reliability still a concern, right? Security is still a concern. There's a lot of businesses where the potential risks of using a Vibe coded product far outweigh the cost of just paying for the product and having something that's reliable, trustworthy, battle tested and. But yeah, I mean there's still a ton of questions about how quickly disruption happens, how quickly market structures change. Some things go from monopolies to oligopolies. Some oligopolies are going to go to perfectly competitive. It's certainly a bull market for YC companies who can Vibe code something that's as good as a public company SaaS product and then go to those customers. And say maybe not as good but it's feature complete. It's feature complete or at least can compete a little bit faster and say hey, I'll come in with an offer that's 10x cheaper and move you over and that's just going to create some pricing pressure. The question is what's the rate limiting factor? Is diffusion a real factor? Is adoption a real factor? Do you need for deployed engineers to go help companies transform with agentic coding or will this happen inside companies and they'll be building their own platforms or will they want just a, a cheaper product from a new third party that has a different business model that's maybe more consumption based and something where if it goes down on a Saturday they don't need to even fire off a prompt. How long until these, these Vibe coded systems are like self healing in the way an enterprise platform is and has like a proper sla? What do you think, Tyler? I just have a question, like I'm curious, what do you guys think about this? So it's like if the market is just catching up now to like coding models being very good and vibe coding, all this stuff and they're basically like a year late. In one year, what do you think is going to be the thing that they're like, do you think they'll still be late? Is it going to be like, okay, actual white collar work is you actually can automate a lot of this stuff and only in a year that they're actually going to catch up to this. Yeah, that's a good question. The next, next thing. Tyler, if I knew the answer, we'd be on Wall Street. I think we'll be talking about it over the next couple, couple months. We'll need to see like glimmers of demos. I mean, yeah, the one thing is like coding never felt. Here's the thing. So in coding has been a white, is a white collar job, but has always felt a lot less fake than most white collar jobs. Like there's a lot of jobs like email jobs, laptop jobs where there's like six people on a call for an hour and like one person is doing like really doing the work and the rest of them are just saying like nothing from my end. Thanks. Right. And that's like their entire day. Whereas coding, like the best engineer years were actually just like grinding long, putting in the hours just. And so I think what's interesting, like as some of these like more broad knowledge work tasks get more easy to automate, do those people just like they're still going to be doing meetings like at some point these companies, I mean to date the AI job loss has just been primarily from companies I would say still processing the Twitter acquisition and saying hey, we just, we need 50% fewer people here. Yeah, this, this sell off is, is much, much more related to business model, competition, pricing pressure than, than automation and job loss. In my opinion, it's much more that there will just be more, more competition in enterprise software markets. And so you assume that margins will fall. That, that's my read on this. I do have another example, but I will tell you about Gusto first. The unified platform for payroll benefits and hr built to evolve with modern small and medium sized businesses. So my answer is the unclankerable company. So right now there are industries. Think about mining. Like I have a piece of land. There is gold in the dirt. There's another company that comes and they're specialization is finding where the gold deposits are on my land. There's a third company that shows up with tractors and people that dig the gold out. Then there's a fourth company that takes the Raw ore and refines it into gold. There's a fifth company that is a platform for selling that gold onto the market. Right. So you have like five different layers of the supply chain to get the gold into the market from the ground. Let's just use that. It could be oil, it could be any, any mineral. Does, does robotic labor too cheap to meter change the value of the land? Probably not. But if you have a robotic digging machine that can show up and dig the, dig the ore out of the ground, dig the gold out of the ground at a lower cost. Well, the company that's been set up where their moat was, they employed all the best miners and they had systems to know who's good, train them, make sure that they're doing it safely, train them on the tools, make sure that they have the right equipment to dig the ore reliably, work in shifts. All of that becomes attackable if you're like, well, all I have to do to start a company that competes in the gold mining business is place an order with a bunch of humanoid robots and go to the guy who has the land and say I want to dig the land. And I will give you a little bit more than what the other team that's using a bunch of human labor and a bunch of unautomated systems. So I would say that that's probably the next thing that the market would be processing and the ride hailing platforms. Dealing with the advent of this self driving car is probably one of these like clanker ification narratives. But that will come to a whole host of industries. The question is just on a five year timeline, on a ten year timeline, when will it be real and then when will the market price it accordingly? Because a lot of the pressure that you're seeing in the market is not showing up in the financials. Like the companies are still growing, they're still producing cash. The business hasn't changed, but the perception of the future is of the business has changed and the perception of the future of the market structure has changed. And so that might be the next thing if we're just to play out AI broadly anyway. Phantom cash. Fund your wallet without exchanges or middlemen and spend with the phantom card. Let's also pull up the linear lineup and take you through who's coming on the show today. Linear is the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise workspaces on Linear are using agents. Agents. It's Friday. We have a lighter show, but we got some great guests. We got Martin Shkreli coming on to talk about take a little victory lap about the quantum computing thing. Connor Hayes, the head of Threads, we hung out with him at Meta Connect. We're very excited to talk to him about the progress Brother Hayes that platform. Then Alex is coming on from DDN and Brett Adcock from Figures coming on to talk about humanoid robots. They launched a new one today. So finally on the show, this would be an interesting one. Clavicular has also been in the news. Oh yes, what happened? Let's see here. Streamer Braden Peters to Host boxing Match Billed as Test of Physical Dominance the Valentine's Day livestream pits two figures from the male self improvement Internet against each other. Braden Peters, the live streamer known as Clavicular, announced Thursday that he will host a boxing match on his Kick Channel this Saturday evening, February 14th at 7pm Eastern, directly opposite Valentine's Day festivities nationwide. The bout will feature two personalities from the online male aesthetics community, a figure known as ASU Frat Leader, an Arizona State University fraternity member who gained attention for his broad shouldered build, and a creator who goes by Andrew Jennick, a fitness influencer focused on hormone optimization and physical appearance. Promotional materials bill the event as a championship of skeletal frame superiority, essentially a contest to determine which man is more physically imposing. The announcement posted to X by the KICK affiliated account Kick Champ has drawn thousands of engagements and spawned a wave of commentary from users who noted the scheduling choice with amusement characterizing the event as a deliberate alternative to the holiday. The matchup represents the latest example of niche Internet subcultures, in this case communities organized around male physical self improvement and body image optimization crossing over into live entertainment. Mr. Peters, who has built his following around content related to physique and social dynamics, appears to be positioning himself as a promoter within the space. No official venue has been announced. The event is expected to stream exclusively on kick.com so will be interested to see how the news kind of reacts to the event over the weekend. Certainly this story has gone mainstream. You know it's funny that. So if you haven't been following these, we've been taking these viral kick clip posts and turning them into professionally written articles just as a joke. But Clavicular actually has a profile in the New York Times and it's written like that. And so I think our joke is like over because it's hit the mainstream. Joe Bernstein wrote something that sounds exactly like something that we were joking about. Braden Peters, known as Clavicular, has emerged as a beacon for a group of narcissistic status obsessed men. He wants to take his fixation with looks maxing mainstream. It's a wild piece. Clavicular is a 6 foot 2, he weighs 180 pounds and has a 31 inch waist. His biochromial width, basically the span of the clavicle from which the 20 year old streamer gets his name is 19.5 inches. He has a mid face ratio which is derived by dividing the distance from pupil to the mouth by the distance between the pupils of 1.07. His chin to philtrum ratio is 2.6 according to clavicular. These calculations make him handsome, just not as handsome as actor Matt Bomer. And then it goes on to explain the whole looks maxing phenomenon. And it was very funny watching this happen because Clavicular streams so much that he livestreamed the interview with Joe Bernstein. But of course, normally when you do an interview with a mainstream media journalist who's writing a profile, it's like under embargo and you don't know it's coming until it drops and like you don't even really talk about it and the chat is confused. This is a very popular, a very popular trend on social media these days and the New York Times is breaking it down. But anyway, there's plenty more there. Let me tell you about public.com investing for those that take it seriously. Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries and more with great customer service. Really, really wild time on the Internet. Anyway, let's go back to the Anthropic round, Matt Slotnick says LOL at the jockeying behind the scenes to land on this wording quote. We have raised $30 billion in Series G funding led by GIC and CO2, valuing Anthropic at 380 billion post money. The round was CO led by D.E. shaw Ventures, Dragonier Founders Fund, Iconic and MGX. Lots of folks getting in. A huge part of this raise is Claude Code, says Boris Czerny, who is the creator of Claude Code. Over at Anthropic weekly active users doubled since January. People who've never written a line of code are building with it. Humbled to work on this every day with our team. That is remarkable growth at this scale doubling. Kenneth having some humble pie or maybe, maybe showing just how early it is, he says. Still less annual revenue than AirPods. AirPods, last I checked were a $20 billion revenue business. 22 billion in 2024. That's a massive business. But Anthropic will be there in what, a week or two? They just broke top 20 in the app Store and now they're in the top 10, they're number seven. The consumer app Claude by Anthropic is climbing in the charts. ChatGPT is number one for free apps. Google Gemini is number two and Free Cash is number three. Threads is number four. And I wonder how much this is driven by momentum still, but definitely driven by momentum. There's so many people that have never. There's so many people that have never tried Claude and hadn't heard of it until recently. And again, we know they're putting a lot of paid spend behind the anti ads campaign. Sure. So that's going to be a factor. Metacritic Capital is pretty funny. Back in. In March of 2024, he said, I continue to be puzzled by Anthropic's $18 billion valuation. And then followed up and said, market is so stupid sometimes I have no words. But of course the market, the market was right on this one so far. This is. You can just see they were. Are we sure that he was saying it was overvalued? He could have been saying it's undervalued. No, I think he was saying it undervalued. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I think that's why he's taking the victory lap is because he was at the time, a year ago, he was like, why is Anthropic so, like has such a low valuation based on the market? This is almost two years ago. Oh, this is. Yeah, this is almost two years ago. So. Huh. I don't actually know. I don't know which way Metacritic was going. Cell phone asked Martin Shkreli who's coming on the show and. Oh, he responded. He said the puzzle meant I didn't understand why it was worth only 18 billion. Hmm. So always vague posts so that you can take either direction. You never push the ball into a corner. Let me tell you about Gemini 3 Pro, Google's most intelligent model yet. State of the art reasoning, next level vibe coding and deep multimodal understanding. I'm glad this chart is now public because it is bananas. It is ridiculous. It should not exist. Says Bruno F. The founder of Magna Digital. $5 billion in tokens, managed. Interesting. Yeah. What? Crazy? Crazy. Just another pod guy says Salesforce invests in anthropic. Colorized, I think when Mark was on he said they have about a point of Anthropic going into this round, if I remember correctly. What is this? It's a horse giving money to a car. The car goes and buys a rocket launcher. The car blows up the barn and the horse is sad. And that does feel like an apt analogy. It's very. And anthropic has been all over legacy media. Yeah. First, let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. Also fantastic Valentine's Day gift, this from this extraordinary piece in the New Yorker. Last summer, while Mark Zuckerberg was conducting hiring raids on other labs, Sholto Douglas, the anthropic engineer and TVPN guest, told me this journalist Gideon Lewis Kraus that a number of his colleagues, quote, could have taken a $50 million paycheck, but the vast majority of them hadn't even bothered to respond. Well, prediction. They are early at a $350 billion company and are clearly very optimistic. But it is funny to just Daniel. Money mog, money mogul. Daniel says. So wait, CLAUDE has seat based pricing? Does this mean they're disrupting themselves too? Of course, a lot of the concern has been around the seat based model, but it even feels like that is less of, that is less of a factor than just the overall threat of zero marginal cost software. Yeah. Why does Claude have seat based pricing? It's. It's essentially a consumption based product. But psychologically, if I'm rolling out CLAUDE to a company and I set up seats for a team, I know that there's individual rate limits, so no one individual is going to blow me up. Basically that's the idea. But this goes into some people are posting. If you're getting a job, you should ask what your term, but in this. Case it's not, this is claude. This is not the API, this is not claude. But when you fire up CLAUDE code, you can integrate your CLAUDE account. And so this essentially gives you credits to write code as well. There's this new meme of if you're going into a tech company, ask what your token budget will be, what's your inference budget? And so these can clearly skyrocket pretty quickly. There's debates over, oh, should I let my employees use the fast mode or the regular mode or pro? Is the work that they're doing really that valuable if they're spending thousands a month? If they're spending tens of thousands a month, at a certain point I need to make sure that they're not being wasteful. And so I think the seat based plan still achieves a little bit of that psychological security for managers. And then there's also an interesting. There's probably a pretty bimodal distribution in the value that or the actual cost associated with these plans. I would imagine that There's a portion of pro users that use 100% of their inference budget every month and they cap out and they're frustrated. They might have a second plan or they might go down to a free plan or limit their usage and then there's a whole bunch of folks who just have a seat and never use it or they use basically like very little inference or they're just asking things that can be answered by a free tier essentially but they just like let it ride. Zach in the chat says we have 150 corporate Claude users purchase by seed 50% max out in week one because of Excel token use. Yeah, there you go. Good data point. Let me tell you about Restream 1 livestream 30 plus destinations. If you want to multi stream go. To restream.com Dan Primack says working on newsletter may be shorter to list the VC firms not in the new anthropic round. It's a party round Josh says got. Grab at least one of the big labs load the many of the firms have sniped all three at this point. Sequoia Founders Fund CO2 is in a bunch. Andreessen's in multiple I think there's a variety of funds that have built stakes of various sizes in all the different labs. It seems like Josh Kushner is one of the few that has remained deeply loyal. Yeah, yeah, we do recognize we just had some technical difficulties, but it seems like we're back on. We are so back. Let me tell you about console consul builds AI agents that automate 70% of IT HR and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. Slow Ventures is taking the other side of the all in on AI. Bet they said Congrats to everyone who figured out that foundation models are infrastructure plays, not startups. Now let's talk about what happened when the picks and shovels phase ends and we're back to building actual products. And will Menaitis says nightmarish degrees of Coke. Yeah, Sam was always super bearish on the labs. He thought that they would commoditize. Was that what it was so they. Wouldn'T have pricing Effectively? Yeah, effectively. He said open source models are going to get really good. He was right. They have gotten really good. But I think maybe miss that the labs would turn into product companies and stop just being, you know, it is. It is sort of interesting. Like if you, if you wound back the clock and you were like my job is just to invest well in tech startup booms from 2005 to 2025 there's one world where you're like, okay, I'm going to go hunt for the Airbnb, the stripe, the YC companies, the Coinbases, all the like, application layer companies, the Instagrams, the Twitters, all of these different companies. But there's a different side where you're like, I'm going to buy like Broadcom, Cisco, Nvidia, amd and still do really well and maybe even better depending on when you got in, when you got out. But it's a. Yeah, it's a very like, just because it's an infrastructure play, even if that's true, that doesn't mean that it's not a good investment for an investor. There is a little bit of like, purist vibes from like a venture capitalist should or certain funds have strategies. And so they say, you know, I'm. Going to sit out slow as a seed Series A, but lean more early. And so by the time you're looking at some of these deals, investing at, you know, 5, 10, you know, 20, 30, 40 billion. Yeah. And there's start to be rough. Yeah. And there's a lot of, there's a lot of funds who have expanded and will invest in anything. Like you're a mining company. Great, let's do it. You're buying Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Like, okay, let's do it. There are a lot of funds that expanded what it meant to just be an asset manager. And there were some funds that stayed very focused and we'll see. But interesting highlights from the Dario Amade interview on Dwarkesh Patel. Jacob Rintamaki, friend of the show, has a question quote here. All my lawyers never want me to say the word monopoly. Dario. Dario says, I don't think that's true. I mean, I feel like we're in an economics class. Dwarkesh says, do you know the Tyler Cowan quote, we never stop talking about economics. Darius says, we never stop talking about economics. So, no, I don't think this field's going to be a monopoly. All my lawyers never want me to say the word monopoly, but I don't think this field is going to be a monopoly. You do get industries in which there are a small number of players, not one, but a small number of players. And so that feels like the, like where things are going with both the expressed viewpoints of the VC firms investing in multiple labs, that there's a variety of strategies to deploy intelligence, whether it's the best model and get deployment and traction, whether it's on the infrastructure side. I Do wonder how many more changes there will be in the horse race. It feels like there's a new hot model every couple weeks and then someone fires back and then they go back and forth and back and forth and with all the, with all the flow. Sa. Improvements do not seem to be. They seem much more like economies of scale and process power of being able to train at ever larger scales, marshal ever larger chunks of capital and do whatever it takes to get to the frontier and stay there. Let me tell you about Vanta Automate Compliance and Security. Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform. Why do we play this? Because the stream we're having issues again. We're working to get it back up. If you can hear US markets now see a 30% probability of a Fed rate cut by April, more than 80% of easing by June. Over on Calshi, we're still seeing the fed decision in March. 93% say maintains rate, no cut. So a cut would be a wild card at 7%, 9% for any sort of cut. So strong GDP growth, strong job numbers, you know, stay the course would be the logical thing, but we will continue to follow it. Let me tell you about Railway. Railway is the all in one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agent to deploy web apps, servers, databases and more while Railway takes automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring and security. Let's play this timeless clip of George Hotz and Nah, we don't believe in stealth. I'm a really open guy. You are pretty open. I mean, tell you everything I'm doing. Come on. Here's what I say, here's what I say. I'm gonna tell you what I'm doing and you could try to compete, but. I'll still crush you. Nah, we don't believe in stealth. It's so funny. Also, I don't know why that person cut that to be so widescreen. It looks very cinematic. But I like the quote here. You think the, you think the eggs. You think the ed. You think the eggs I lay are valuable. I am the golden goose. Meanwhile, I'm thinking, thinking people will steal your ideas if you share them is a sign of low iq. And I agree. We are in the era of agency and actually going and executing on the idea is the difficult thing you need to be charisma maxing. And there's still, there's still a lot of secrets. Every business, yes, CEOs can, you can, you can. CEOs can do 100 hours of podcasts and tell you a lot about what they're doing without telling you the one or two things that are actually important and it's very easy for somebody to come in and try to fast follow and ultimately just like kind of get it entirely wrong even though it looks like the right. And I think there was a huge incentive, I mean going back to the SaaS apocalypse, there was incentive for a long time for companies that wear their moat was not software. To say we're a software company, we need to hire the best software engineers, look at our open source projects, focus on all the cool tech that we're building when really it was a marketplace or really it was a liquidity provider or really it was a network effect. And if you're a network effects business, it can be sort of boring and honestly anti competitive to just be like look, we can do nothing and win. No one wants to say, no one wants to hear a CEO say that. But we're going to find out who can do nothing and win because we'll see it show up in the margins. Over the next couple financial years. Meanwhile, over on LinkedIn, George Hotz is posting. Amrit says George Hotz is the only thing keeping my LinkedIn feed good. He says, hello corporate participant. You are building the machine that will eat you. You think your fake money will keep you safe? It won't. You think your social climbing friendships will keep you safe? They won't. The only choice is to stop. Tell your friends, tell your neighbors, if you keep feeding this machine, it will eat you. The proposed revolutions will not be enough. A global scale nuclear conflict might, but even then I'm not sure. The problem was never AI itself. It's the collapse of trust in society. Apps and phones have snuck between every crevice of people and they are run by psychopaths. The AI will be a further wedge, just another lever to manipulate you. You will not be able to stand up to it and you will be discarded. The second you don't serve it like layoffs, you will die atomized and alone and you won't understand that. You did this yourself. Brutal. Nice little white pill. Nice little Friday white pill. He's such a white pillar. Well, here's a white pill. Figma. Figma make isn't your average vibe coding tool. It lives in figma so outputs look good, feel real and stay connected to how teams build, create code back prototypes and apps fast. But here is the real white pill. For just $33 million, you can have a private home on a remote resort in Utah. Can you guess where it is? Park City? Nope. It's at the Amman luxury Resort. It's in the Wall Street Journal. The residence is the first to hit the market at Amman in a in remote southern Utah. Amangiri Resort, a crown jewel in the Amman Hospitality Company's portfolio. They're doing residences. They're doing residences. Global. They have a portfolio of global hotels and residences. They're listing the first private home for $33 million. Located just over the Utah border from the small town of Page, Arizona, the hotel currently features 34 guest suites starting at 5,000 per night and 10 tented pavilions at its Camp Sarica, providing a temporary escape for travelers. But the newly built house on nine acres can be purchased outright. Designed by Los Angeles based firm Masa studio, the roughly 12,000 square foot residence has six bedrooms and fully furnished. It's the first of 12 planned private homes, which will be about half a. Mile from the resort, OTP says. But does it have a bunky? Does it have a bunch of bunky bed? Oh, a bunker. Bunker. Oh, we're going to get into bunkers. There's a whole piece in the Journal about how to secure a mega mansion. I know you've been asking. We have the answers. Until it's sold, the home is available to rent for $45,000 per night. Before we continue, let me tell you about Sentry. Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps it, helps them fix it fast. That's why 150,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working. So residents have been part Residences have been part of the Amangiri vision since the Resort opened in 2009. The decision to offer private private residences now was spurred by the success of the 2020 tented camp launch, rising demand globally for hotel branded residences, and a sense that the property was ready. Take that step. While future residences will share a cohesive aesthetic, each will be designed to respond to the unique contours of the specific site. In Page, the median sale price was $610,000 in August. There are currently around a half a dozen listings above 33 million, though all clustered further north near ski resorts Amangiri. Buyer interest has been strong, he said, particularly among Amman loyalists and North American clients. Additional residential plots price between 5 million and 12.5 million are under contract. And so let's get into Lambda. Lambda is the super intelligence cloud building AI supercomputers for training and inference that scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands. The mega rich are turning their mansions into impenetrable fortresses and we're going to tell you how to do it for yourself. Anxiety over high profile violence has the wealthy spending big on armed security bunkers, a bunky and even moats. They're building moats. I haven't heard of an alligator in the moat or shark in the moat, but people are in fact building moats. Being an alligator salesman I feel like is unsloppable. I think it could be clankable. Yes, still at the moment unsloppable. But you gotta build the humanoid robot that can go in the water to wrestle the alligator. And that might be. We'll ask Fred Adcock. Is it waterproof? Is it waterproof? Can it go wrestle an alligator or not? Because I don't want it just to do my dishes, do the laundry. I want it wrestling alligators in my moat. So British music producer Alex Grant was living in an under construction mega mansion in Los Angeles. One morning, shortly after 9am an intruder armed burst into the home, he said. Grant said he came in and we had a tussle. He was formerly known as Alex Da Kid. Grant managed to call his manager, who phoned the police. Soon officers and helicopters were on the scene. He briefly considered abandoning the project after the 2017 break in, but ultimately finished the 24,000 square foot home, which has eight pools, a car elevator and a nightclub. Wow. But he doubled down on security features, installing a guard house, tall gates and a security system with retina scanners that alert the homeowner to movement in the home. Later I found out he had these knives on him, grant said, who recently listed the mansion and a neighboring house for 85 million after moving to New York. In an era of high profile violence, including the suspected abduction of Savannah Guthrie's mother from her Arizona home just over a week ago. The wealthy are investing heavily in their personal security, particularly when it comes to their homes. Security measures once reserved for presidents and royalty safe rooms, biometric access controls, laser powered perimeter defenses. These are now mainstream items in luxury homes. Executive protection teams and armed guards patrol gated enclaves and suburban estates, while tech startups are rolling out predictive threat detection systems built for the ultra wealthy. The shift reflects a hardening view among the affluent. Traditional policing and communal safety are no longer enough. No security. So security is being privatized and customized. The new emphasis is reflected in sales data. Roughly 45% of luxury homes in 2025 included a reference to privacy or security, up from 38% the year earlier. So break ins at the homes of celebrities and professional athletes have been putting the wealthy on edge. A group of Chilean nationals was indicted last year for stealing items worth more than $2 million from sports stars including Kansas City chief players Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelsey this had something to do with the visa process with Chile where you could very easily get a tourist visa. So there was these like base the allegedly there were teams that would be permanently based in the U.S. yeah. And then they would be running kind of the operations. They'd be in the kind of war room and then basically tourists would come for two weeks, hit a bunch of houses and then bounce. Wow. And those were the only people that were actually exposed to or exposed meaning they were like carrying out the different ops. Well, the Miami Dolphins player to a tag of Viola. Viola I might be mispronouncing that said he hired personal security to monitor his house while he's on the road. He says let that be known. They're armed. So if you try to go inside my house, think twice. The homes like of celebrities like Brad Pitt and Nicole Kidman have also been broken into. Miami real estate agent Danny Hertzberg of Coldwell Banker said he began noticing an increase in emphasis on Security in 2020 when high profile executives were migrating from New York to Miami during the early days of the COVID pandemic. Pandemic. Private jet tracking websites have also been an issue. They send chills through the through the high net worth community. Corporations are taking note. Companies offering personal security benefits for CEOs increased by 10% according to Goldman Sachs. One entrepreneur capitalizing on this growth is David Weiderhorn who got into real estate after selling a tech company in 2017. I wonder what he sold. He recently built a heavily secured home in Scottsdale, Arizona and he in early December, Weiderhorn walked through the 8,600 square foot property pointing out 32 casino grade AI powered facial and vehicle recognition cameras. There's also a laser intrusion detection system around the perimeter. Pausing at a steel double gate in front of the house, he warned that the security system kicks in even before visitors reach the front door, which is fashioned out of 3 inches 3 inch thick solid steel and has 13 deadbolts. He said even the landscape was designed as a deterrent. Cacti Sour orange trees. There are sour orange trees with 4 inch spikes in concrete planters on the edge of the property and just beyond those trees separating the house and the street, a moat, gators. A moat, gators. If you try and run through that bush, it will be a bad day for you, he said. Should anyone get past the trees, lasers will detect motion and the system will call the police. Inside the house, three ear piercing alarms will go off. And this is an interesting thing, the fireplace surround, like around the fireplace in the great room, it will change colors, it's made out of crystallocortzite and it can change colors so it'll turn red. So you're sitting there and if there's anything detected on the property, your fireplace turns red above the TV to show you that something's going on. Very interesting. That's a visual cue. The home's most fortified feature lies behind a wood paneled wall, a reinforced concrete safe room with a 2,000 pound door and an air filtration system built to US Army Corps of Engineers standards. Weiderhorn declined to share specifics, but said it cost more than $10 million to build the house. About $1 million was spent on bullet resistant smart glass and the front entry security features cost more than $1 million. In Las Vegas, clients of luxury design firm Blue Herons are spending between $100,000 and $1.5 million on security features including safe rooms and bunkers. Blue Heron is now working on new ways to incorporate architecture with security, such as exterior window shades that could be closed with a touch of a button to protect the home's occupants. In Surfside, Florida, the developer of the Delmore, a planned 37 unit ultra high end condominium project designed by Zaha Zaha Hadid architects and with units priced at up to 200 million, has tapped a Washington D.C. based security firm to design the building. Security? The 200 million dollar condo. Yeah, that is crazy. But I mean, I guess from a security perspective, if you're in some massive building, you're sort of like diffusing the cost. There's more people that might notice something, there's more security guards. It's almost like a gated community in one building. I'm just, yeah, probably layers of access. Purely thinking you're effectively looking at $100 million a floor, right? That's crazy. A couple floors, maybe a few. It's up there. For a condo, that is huge. The firm is working to integrate technology like biometric access, facial recognition and iris scanning into the design of the project. For instance, when a resident or visitor pulls into the building's parking garage, their car will be scanned for license plate recognition. But facial recognition may also identify the car's occupants and their level of approval to access the building. That in turn triggers the security system to allow the person to unlock only the doors and elevators that they are permitted to pass through. Meanwhile, an AI powered security system will track movements captured on camera throughout the building looking for anomalies. Hertzberg said he recently had a client fly in a security consultant to evaluate a roughly $50 million house he had put on under contract. The consultant looked into the viability of installing a complex camera and laser system that could sense any movement on the perimeter of the property, including the water. So lots of interesting stuff. Let me tell you about Cognition. They're the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. If you go further down, they talk about San Francisco tech entrepreneur Kevin Hart said he and his high net worth peers in California are increasingly focused on security. Kevin of course has a home security startup. Yes. Hart said he co founded his own security company, Sauron, in 2024 after being spooked by an attempted break in at his home in San Francisco. The person first rang the doorbell before making his way around the house trying some of the doors and windows. When he couldn't gain access, he went to her next door neighbor's home where he tried to push through the front door. He was arrested by police. That could have been us, hertz said. The Soar on system, which has only been launched in beta across a few homes in the Bay Area, will differ from other security systems in that it includes deterrent strategies, not only response. For instance, if it senses an intruder, it could include a feature that automatically triggers sounds such as dogs barking or police sirens coming closer. Just the sound of dogs barking feels like a great feature. Just OTP in the chat was saying do none of these people have gold German shepherds? Yeah, German shepherds. Fun fact about German shepherds, you can like a purebred dog might be like single digit thousands, but there are companies out there that will train a German shepherd for like the military basically and then also train them to be pets so they have that level of training and then you can get up in like the 40, $50,000 range for dog which is hilar dog as much as a car. But dogs are typically it's a lot. Of money, but it's a lot of dogs. It's a lot of dog. It's the GT3Rs of dogs truthfully. But whenever you look at the list of like what's the most likely thing to eliminate home intrusion risk? Dogs are always at the top quickly. Let me tell you about another great Valentine's Day gift. MongoDB. Choose a database built for flexibility and scale with best in class embedding models and re rankers. MongoDB has what you need to build what's next and without further ado, we have Martin Shkreli in the restream waiting room. Let's bring in Martin to the TV bin. Ultra Martin. Good to see you again. How are you doing? Technology brothers, how are you? We're fantastic. How are you? It's great to see you. Excellent. Are you gearing up for the weekend? Are you excited? Caffeinated, ready to do more work? Fantastic. Locked in the great lock in. What's your daily caffeine stack? We talked with Huberman about this. You're the natural. Are you a microdoser or do you do 400 milligrams and then coast? I do coffee. Several coffee.

Earlier two months ago and then again one month ago. Most of the audience is prepped for sure, but we have some, we have some ideas, some recommendations if you're looking for advice. This Valentine's Day, we of course live from the TV pan Ultra realm, the temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. And here's an idea for Valentine's Day. Ramp.com this Valentine's Day, show her you care about your future together by putting all of your couple's spending on Ramp. Because nothing says I will provide for our family like pulling out a ramp car. Knows you take you handle business. That's right. Anyway, handling business. The big news. Anthropic has raised $30 billion at 380 billion post money valuation. We've all seen the revenue chart. 10x growth four years in a row. 100 million. A billion now, 14 billion. Will they do 100? That's the question. Will they be at $100 billion revenue run rate by the end of the year? They're growing on track to hit that, which is crazy and completely unprecedented. But again, they're going after all of SaaS, they're going after all of software, they're going after all of labor, all of white collar work. Your job specifically. Yeah, it's not looking good for you. No, we're joking. Never doom. Never doom. There's plenty of opportunity. There are plenty of good potential outcomes. Dario has been on Duar Keshe Patel today and he did something else with Ross Douthat. And so there's a number of places where you can go to hear his latest takes on the good ending and what he's guiding towards. Be interesting to follow. The question is what happens to the companies that are currently under pressure with the Anthropic narrative? They have to answer this question of is anthropic just going to steamroll, you know, what is your real source of strength? Yeah, not just anthropic, but the labs. Every YC company that is building an AI native, any company that is slapping AI native on their website, everyone's going after the opportunity. So we coined a phrase, we decided to coin something. Yes, it's time to coin out. And before we tell you the coinage, let me tell you about Cisco this Valentine's Day, give her the gift of enterprise grade networking this Valentine's Day. So your home wi fi never drops during movie night because nothing kills the mood like buffering during a rom com. Get on Cisco, head over to cisco dot com. So yeah, we decided. So how do you. What is a phrase that you can generally apply to businesses that can survive and then hopefully thrive during this moment in time. Intelligence is too cheap to meter. Yeah. So the question earnings cycle, last couple weeks, every CEO has gone on if, basically if you had to answer the question, talk about the threat of AI. If you just had to answer the question, basically the companies that were just. The entire earnings call was just about generally about AI. You know, if you're like a core weave or something like that, that's a little bit more straightforward. But if you have to answer the question, do you have a durable moat? Right now with AI progress, your stock is probably going to sell off, but you know, either way, kind of however you answer it. But there's a second question which is like are you a true beneficiary? So like do you have a durable moat? And then are you a true beneficiary? So we decided to coin the phrase unsloppable. Unsloppable. So these are companies that we'll get into that have some type of moat. In an era where it feels like more code could be written in the next 12 months than in all of human history. I was kind of running the numbers. It seems possible. Specifically not. Okay, you're a company that has just spent 10 years writing a bunch of lines of code and it would take a startup a lot of time and money and they would have to hire a lot of engineers and write a lot of code to create a copy of what you have. Yeah, no. So like to rebuild Salesforce as a platform you would have to spend billions of. Historically you would have had to spend billions of dollars hiring thousands of software engineers to you know, piece by piece build out all of the functionality at Salesforce. Of course you could build vertical solutions and get some amount of traction. But in general the idea was like there was some effectively just a, an engineering moat and that there was a lot of code that you would have to write to effectively compete. So I talked about in the newsletter. Today, set the table first, what's going on in the market? Yeah, so software has undergone the largest non recessionary 12 month drawdown in over 30 years. It's minus 34% wiping out 2 trillion of market cap from the peak. This is JP Morgan as of a couple days ago. AI threat sparks historic SOFTWARE stock CRASH Goldman Sachs warns of newspaper like decline. I love the newspaper. What's wrong with newspapers? Still got it. Still got it. And then as of yesterday, over the prior eight trading sessions, more than 20% of the S&P 500 had a drawdown of 7% or more in a single session, according to the compound. A lot. Quickly. Before we continue, let me tell you about the New York Stock Exchange. This Valentine's Day, I recommend flying to Manhattan, take her to the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, ipo, your company, and ring the opening bell together. Great. Your love just went public. Good one, John. So, yeah, yeah. So continuing. So, uh, I wrote everything was great when we were disrupting manual workflows, but as we enter the software singularity, we are having the uncomfortable experience of disrupting ourselves. Assume the marginal cost of software development goes to zero. If you are a software company where the. Where your moat was that a competitor would have to spend a billion dollars to hire a bunch of software engineers to write millions of lines of code to create a product and you have no other moats, it's going to be rough. Thankfully, there are moats that are unaffected by coding agents and effectively zero cost software development. Peter Thiel PT outlined four key sources of monopoly power in zero to one back in 2014. These are proprietary technology, network effects, economies of scale, and brand, or you can think of as trust. Most of these still hold, but proprietary technology by itself is no longer sufficient. As a moat in some cases. If you have a patent to a GLP1 drug that is a proprietary technology that will give you pricing power probably for as long as the patent holds. And there are patents on certain pieces of technology that even if they can be cloned or rederived from first principles, with your million geniuses in the data center, the first person to patent it gets to reap that value. And that's just the way our. And the issue with software, how many a bunch of designer friends of mine have like a design patent on a specific kind of workflow? And it's cool to say that you have a patent, but it's not. Yeah, proprietary technology can just be okay, we have a big software system, but oftentimes it's more like we have proprietary, like something that's regulated, something that's a cornered resource, something that's scarce and will remain scarce. But yes, if your proprietary technology is just you're the only person with this particular Python script, that's that that's probably going away. But network effects aren't. And some of the economies of scale, some of the liquidity on these platforms is going to be durable. You can vibe code a. I was talking to Dara Khoshari at Uber about this. You can vibe code a pickup app that you know, looks like Uber has a map Lets you click the button, accepts payment. But if there's no one on the other side of that network to actually come and pick you up, your Uber clone is dead in the water now. Yeah. Or if a customer, if somebody does pick it up and the customer has a terrible experience, do you have the resources to actually make it right? But Uber works because they spend a bunch of money getting to scale and cloning that scale is difficult. Now the whole self driving car thing is separate because you bring your client. Yeah, we're working on that one. That'll happen. But there are a set of businesses that will have to contend with the, the clanker fication of the economy. But that's, that's a. Becoming unslopable means two things. First, your business actually has to drive its economic power from a moat that is unslobable. And second, you need to clearly communicate that to shareholders. Right now, if the market thinks you're just a bunch of lines of code, you're cooked. Tech companies we think of as unsloppable. You have hardware, Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Cisco, Broadcom, SK, Hynix, Western digital data centers. So neoclouds, things like Core Weave, Lambda social networks, YouTube, Instagram, X, LinkedIn, even thinking Roblox. Right. They can be not just they have the network and they can be a beneficiary of AI, because if it's easier to make games, a lot more people will make games. Maybe you'll get more usage marketplaces, Airbnb, Uber, DoorDash, IP holders, Disney, Netflix, Warner Brothers. I think if you have a lot of IP right now and the cost to produce great content drops dramatically, you're going to benefit from that. And then platforms, things like YouTube and Spotify as well. I said it's been an incredibly rough couple of weeks for public market CEOs. Really disheartening on the show. CEOs been putting up some great quarters and then they're trading down between 7 and 20%. There are two main questions everyone wants to know even if they already sold your stock to buy Adams. One, do you have a durable moat in the software singularity? Two, are you a true beneficiary of AI? Many CEOs are still struggling to answer. Number one, because it doesn't really matter what you say, just having to answer the question equals a sell off. And two, this one can really only be answered in the numbers. You aren't an immediate AI beneficiary if revenue is not accelerating. Also, separately, there are a bunch of crazy things happening in the Broader economy right now. I think Besson Besant went on CNBC at 4am they brought out the big dog. I haven't been able to catch it yet. 7:00Am Eastern. Yeah. 4:00am Pacific. Very, very early for us. It's possible to be unslobable but not an obvious beneficiary. But you'll still likely sell off. As the market digests and interrogates the actual real world impacts of coding agents. Some industries will be more resistant to change. Other industries will be revealed to have a secret source of market power that was underappreciated in the before times. What I was thinking was Nielsen. This company was, you know, in one way Nielsen Ratings, Nielsen data. A lot of consumer packaged goods companies use this. I'm sure Matina is looking at how is this Yerba mate selling in this store? And you go to Nielsen, you pay them and they give you data and it just feels like an interface to sales data. But they have this whole network and you just have to pay for it. And it's not really something that you can just spin up. I don't know. What do you think? I mean isn't that kind of like what Simile is doing? We had them on yesterday. They're like trying. Maybe you can kind of do like polls or something about how market will. That's more for simulating, more for future. Yeah. Prediction. The bigger one is like, is like. Like I would want to know. Similarly would actually want that data to update their models. Yeah, like you want to know. Okay, what stores are actually turning my product? Which store should I be doing promos in? Which stores should I be doubling down on running advertising in? Or what chains are working? Should I push more into or even just hey, I need to go to one chain and say I'm working like Target's working so Walmart should carry me. They're not really going to accept just a simulation of that data. They're going to want to know that an independent rating agency sort of rated. Gold rock just bought unslavable.com. great. Quickly. Before we move on, let me tell you about Applovin. This Valentine's Day use Applovin's Axon AI to serve her hyper targeted ads for exactly the jewelry she wants. That way she'll be extra excited when she unwraps presents on the big day. Great call capping off the newsletter. I said a lot of the software market feels like the office equipment and imaging sector in the 90s. So companies like Sharp, Canon, Panasonic, revenue was still up and to the right. But widespread adoption of the Internet, emails and PDFs was on the horizon. Even today, you'll still find a fax machine in every doctor's office. And many of the giants of that era are still around. But if you stayed in those names, you would have missed out on generational gains by simply being long PDF. Had to go long PDF. So yeah, if you look at these companies, you know, Panasonic's still massive company and they've obviously adapted over time but, but you know, it's a, it's a. Shift from growth stock to value stock. Investors are less willing to pay for earnings that might come 10 years out because they're worried about those or 20 years out. Instead they're asking, what will my return on invested capital be this year? What will the dividend be this year? How much cash will you give me back if I invest for a one year time horizon or shorter or longer? Let me tell you about TurboPuffer this holiday Valentine's Day. Here's an idea. TurboPuffer store Vector embeddings of every ro romantic moment you've shared in TurboPuffer. So you can do semantic search for that time in Paris and actually find it TurboFish serverless vector and full text search. It's built from first principles and object storage. It's fast, 10x cheaper and it's extremely scalable. So no matter how many memories you're cramming in turbopuffer, you're good to go. You're good to go this Valentine's Day. Just do it anyway. It will be interesting. I think that there will be a reckoning around who is able to reveal a true moat and help people help the market understand what their source of strength is. Whether it's liquidity on their platform, the network effect, the ip, if they have a real IP that's defensible. But just having a big bag of code right now is a little bit of a wait since you're seeing so many companies that are saying, well, our software engineers aren't even writing the code anymore. Yes, we're advancing our products, but so many companies are going all in. It's also, it's pretty wild how long it's taken for the public markets to react to this kind of one shotting concept or the zero marginal cost code coding concept where we were having these same conversations in Q1 of last year, being like, what are the implications when you can just put in the prompt box build me XYZ tool. Right. And it took a while for the models to make progress but even a year ago it was pretty obvious that you would get to some point where you could one shot a big platform. Of course reliability still a concern, right? Security is still a concern. There's a lot of businesses where the potential risks of using a Vibe coded product far outweigh the cost of just paying for the product and having something that's reliable, trustworthy, battle tested. Yeah, I mean there's still a ton of questions about how quickly disruption happens, how quickly market structures change. Some things go from monopolies to oligopolies. Some oligopolies are going to go to perfectly competitive. It's certainly a bull market for YC companies who can vibe code something that's as good as a public company SaaS product and then go to those customers. And say maybe not as good but as feature complete. As feature complete at least can compete a little bit faster and say, hey, I'll come in with an offer that's 10x cheaper and move you over and that's just going to create some pricing pressure. The question is what's the rate limiting factor? Is diffusion a real factor? Is adoption a real factor? Do you need for deployed engineers to go help companies transform with agentic coding or do you? Or can you or will this happen inside companies and they'll be building their own platforms or will they want just a cheaper product from a new third party that has a different business model that's maybe more consumption based and something where if it goes down on a Saturday they don't need to even fire off a prompt. How long until these Vibe coded systems are self healing in the way an enterprise platform is and has a proper sla. What do you think, Tyler? I just have a question, like I'm curious, what do you guys think about this? So it's like if the market is just catching up now to like coding models being very good and vibe coding, all this stuff and they're basically like a year late. In one year, what do you think is going to be the thing that they're like, do you think they'll still be late? Is it going to be like, okay, actual like white collar work is you actually can automate a lot of this stuff and only in a year that they're actually going to catch up to this? Yeah, that's a good question. The next, next thing. Tyler, if I knew the answer, we'd be on Wall Street. I think we'll be talking about it over the next couple months. We'll need to see like glimmers of demos. I mean, yeah, the one thing is like coding never felt, here's the thing. So in coding has been a white, it's a white collar job, but has always felt a lot less fake than most white collar jobs. Like there's a lot of jobs like email jobs, laptop jobs where there's like six people on a call for an hour and like one person is doing like really doing the work and the rest of them are just saying like nothing from my end. Thanks. Right. And that's like their entire day. Whereas coding, like the best engineer years were actually just like grinding long, putting in the hours, just. And so I think what's interesting, like as, as some of these like more broad knowledge work tasks get more easy to automate. Do those people just like they're still going to be doing meetings like at some point these companies. I mean to date the AI, the AI job loss has just been primarily from companies I would say still processing the Twitter acquisition and saying, yeah, hey, we just, we need 50% fewer people here. Yeah, this, this sell off is much, much more related to business model competition, pricing pressure than, than automation and job loss. In my opinion. It's much more that there will just be more, more competition in enterprise software markets. And so you assume that margins will fall. That, that's my read on this. I do have another example, but I will tell you about Gusto first. The unified platform for payroll benefits and HR built to evolve with modern small and medium sized businesses. So my answer is the, the unclankerable company. So right now there are industries. Think about, think about mining. Like I have a piece of land, there is gold in the dirt. There's another company that comes and their specialization is finding where the gold deposits are. On my land. There's a third company that shows up with tractors and people that dig the gold out. Then there's a fourth company that takes the raw ore and refines it into gold. There's a fifth company that is a platform for selling that gold onto the market. Right. So you have like five different layers of the supply chain to get the gold into the market from the ground. Let's just use that. It could be oil, it could be any mineral. Does robotic labor too cheap to meter change the value of the land? Probably not. But if you have a robotic digging machine that can show up and dig the, dig the ore out of the ground, dig the gold out of the ground at a lower cost. Well, the company that's been set up where their moat was, they employed all the best miners and they had systems to know who's good, Train them, make sure that they're doing it safely, train them on the tools, make sure that they have the right equipment to dig the ore reliably, work in shifts. All of that becomes attackable. If you're like, well, all I have to do to start a company that competes in the gold mining business is place an order with a bunch of humanoid robots and go to the guy who has the land and say I want to dig the land. And I will give you a little bit more than what the other team that's using a bunch of human labor and a bunch of unautomated systems. So I would say that that's probably the next thing that the market would be processing and the ride hailing platforms dealing with the advent of this self driving car is probably one of these like clanker ification narratives. But that will come to a whole host of industries. The question is just on a five year timeline, on a ten year timeline, when will it be real and then when will the market price it accordingly? Because a lot of the pressure that you're seeing in the market is not showing up in the financials. Like the companies are still growing, they're still producing cash. The business hasn't changed, but the perception of the future of the business has changed and the perception of the future of the market structure has changed. And so that might be the next thing if we're just to play out AI broadly anyway. Phantom cash. Fund your wallet without exchanges or middlemen and spend with the Phantom card. Let's also pull up the Linear lineup and take you through who's coming on the show today. LINEAR is the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise workspaces on LINEAR are using agents. It's Friday. We have a lighter show but we got some great guests. We got Martin Shkreli coming on to talk about take a little victory lap about the quantum computing thing. Connor Hayes, the head of threads, we hung out with him at Meta Connect. We're very excited to talk to him about the progress Brother Hayes that platform. Then Alex is coming on from DDN and Brett Adcock from Figures coming on to talk about humanoid robots. They launched a new one today. So finally on the show it's going to be an interesting one. Clavicular has also been in the news. Oh yes, what happened? Let's see here. Streamer Braden Peters to host boxing match Billed as test of physical dominance the Valentine's Day livestream pits two figures from the male self improvement Internet against each other. Braden Peters the live streamer known as Clavicular, announced Thursday that he will host a boxing match on his Kick.com channel this Saturday evening, February 14th at 7:00pm Eastern, directly opposite Valentine's Day festivities nationwide. The bout will feature two personalities from the online male aesthetics community a figure known as ASU Frat Leader, an Arizona State University fraternity member who gained attention for his broad shouldered build, and a creator who goes by Andregenic, a fitness influencer focused on hormone optimization and physical appearance. Promotional materials bill the event as a championship of skeletal frame superiority, essentially a contest to determine which man is more physically imposing. The announcement, posted to X by the KICK affiliated account Kick Champ, has drawn thousands of engagements and spawned a wave of commentary from users who noted the scheduling choice with amusement, characterizing the event as a deliberate alternative to the holiday. The matchup represents the latest example.

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