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You're watching TVPN. Today is Friday, December 12, 2025. Just 13 days till Christmas. We're live from the TVPN Ultradome. The temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. Ramp.com, baby. Time is money. Save both easy use, corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place. That's right. The Death Star post. Now it makes sense. It all makes sense. It all makes sense. It wasn't a vague post.

Team deathmatch. You're watching TVPN. Today is Friday, December 12, 2025. Just 13 days till Christmas. We're live from the TVPN Ultradome. The temple of technology. The fortress of finance. The capital of capital. Ramp.com, baby. Time is money. Save both easy use corporate cards.

Of a conservation minded buyer. What's the process if you acquire a piece of land, actually build on it? We're based here in California and the process is absolutely insane. I live in Malibu. If there's a property that you might look at, it might be reasonably priced, but you're looking at maybe six years to actually develop.

Like it's, you know, it's like insurance companies making these bets. So it's a little bit longer term capital. Yeah, but. Is there anything in the economy right now that gives you the same sort of jitters that you had during your famous interview with Sam Bankman Fried, where it felt like at the time you were clocking? Like, this just doesn't make sense. The math doesn't math. Like it feels like we're frothy, where everyone kind of goes around saying like, yeah, we're in a bubble. But at the same time it feels like it's a bubble that's built on some real stuff, even the prediction market stuff. It's like I can at least trace the cash flows. I might think that sports betting isn't the greatest thing, but at least I know that the businesses are going to make money. Right. AI sort of replaced crypto as the sort of darling of a lot of investors. But the consumer product is very tangible. The crypto stuff, it was all like, oh, I'll make tokens that other people can trade for more tokens. Wait, that actually sounds like AI too, because I make, I make anthropic tokens. I sell them to you. You make cursor tokens. The circularity is. If you want to be troubled by the circularity, it's a little weird. But the difference between that and crypto, where no one like, the thing about Sam Bankman Fried that was obvious at the time was that he didn't care about crypto. He wasn't like, oh yeah, this is a world changing product. It was like, oh yeah, this is a casino where people will give me money. And like AI is. There's a lot of people who are true believers in it. And again, they've like rolled out consumer products that Disney's gonna license its characters. Right. I mean like, there's a real sort of. There are many real obvious use cases. And so like there's a lot of value being created. And then the question is like, is it commensurate with the $10 trillion of debt that's being incurred? And it's not obvious, but it's like there's something there. How much would I have to pay you for you to agree to not use any AI for the next year? I'm kind of a lot of.

No, there's plenty of areas where people pay their debt obligations on time. How have you processed the. Is Nvidia holding up the global economy? Is OpenAI going to blow up the entire global economy? Those types of Cassandra esque narratives that have kind of spiraled and maybe are coming back down to earth now. Yeah, I don't know. I mean it's fascinating that insurance companies investing in investment grade debt are ultimately underwriting a stream of payments from startups. Right. I mean, kind of what is happening here? Deeply unprofitable startups. Yeah. But also a lot of it is like people underwriting a stream of payments from Facebook, which like, you know, is very profitable. Yeah, yeah. Like the Blue Owl data center for Meta superintelligence. One gigawatt. The Hyperion thing. Like it's like Meta's going to pay that bill. At least I think so. Right. And if you had made like an equity bet on like, if you, if there had been a way to make an equity bet on like Meta's pivot to the Metaverse, like you would have lost all your money. But like, like, yeah, presumably they paid their supplier bills for that. Right. Like, oh, totally. Like there's a, there's like a difference there. Right. If you're like underwriting these like hyperscalers, like mostly, you know, these are very investment grade, very cash flowy companies that, you know, could, could turn off the Capex if they needed to. But. Right. I mean, you're underwriting a lot of, you know, fixed payments on Capex and it's, it's, It seems a little aggressive for a credit investor, but they're all like, when the private credit is like it's not going to blow up the economy, like it's, you know, it's like insurance companies making these bets. So it's a little bit longer term capital. Yeah. But I don't know. Is there anything in the economy right now that gives you the same sort of jitters that you had during your famous interview with Sandbank?

Response from the Tubi team. Did you see this? Sorry, did you see this chart? Crime from Ry. This is from Riley. Riley says, put this on a shirt. So OpenAI launched a merch store called supply.OpenAI.com Very fun. Bunch of shirts in there. You can get basketball, you can get a bunch of cool stuff. But then Riley's sort of dunking and saying like, put this on a shirt. It's like how crazy the financials are over at OpenAI. And I get it, like merch store, probably not the biggest priority while you're in code red on your core product. Like, that's a legit concern. But the Financial Times. What are we doing with this chart? This is a crazy, crazy chart. So first off, this says OpenAI's estimated balance sheet. But then it has revenue on here and revenue doesn't go on the balance sheet. So what are we doing? And it's like, I'm just so confused by this. And so total cost of cloud compute. That's the purple bar down there. Cogs also don't go on the balance sheet. So both of those don't belong there. Then the red dots are new equity fundings that they're planning to do. And that should go on the balance sheet because that's assets that come in, but then free cash flow, that comes from the cash flow statement. So it's just like this is such a chart crime from anyone who has respect for the three statements. This is the financial. This is the Financial Times. I have a lot of respect for the Financial Times. I love the Financial Times. But I was just very shocked. I mean, it's more like OpenAI estimated financials. I don't know, it's sort of an interesting chart. It's also just very weird how there's like bars and dots and it's like, what does the bar mean? What does the dot mean? Like, it's like the dot feels like it's more of like, I don't know, it's a very confusing chart. It does tell an interesting story though, which is that they're projecting revenue increasing while costs also increase and they're going to have to raise more money and eventually they're going to, you know, they're going to lose a lot of money. There's going to be negative free cash flow for a number of years. Then eventually they will turn positive. I don't know. It seems like it's a bold five year plan. We've heard about this. It's funny to see it laid out like that. But ultimately they they're, you know, like, whether or not they deliver is sort of immaterial to their. To their merch efforts. Anyway. What opening.

Is in the news. Is there anything else we should cover? There's some news around Substack. I guess Substack changed their how much you can read without installing the Substack app. They're really pushing the Substack app. Gergli Orzoz is. Orzoz is upset about this. He says my paid subscribers cannot even read my email without installing the Substack app. Eric Newcomer says, wtf Bullish for Substack if they get everyone to install their app, obviously. D like yeah. And Max Child is there saying, I was wondering if this was a growth hack. And Eric Newcomer says for Substack. Yeah, it's for their app would be very interesting. I don't know if this is. Yeah, this is subscribe. Tvpn.com, you should drop your email. You get a free newsletter. We don't have a paid version. I don't know if this affects us. We'll have to figure it out. We'll have to talk to Brandon. I'm sure it affects us. The newsletter is pretty long. And again and so it's not sending. The full thing in the, in the email. You continue reading in the app. Which is just, it's, it's, it is this, this kind of decision. I like Substack as a business, but this decision is good for Substack and it's not good for the reader and it's not good for the, the, the person sending. Right. I don't. They could argue that it'll have a long term benefit because people might be more engaged in the app. They might be more likely. But again, when you look at the data, at least for us, like 95% of readers are reading it in their email. They're not reading it in the Substack app yet. Substack wants to change that, but I can see why people would be frustrated here. And this is why the traditional email platforms have pushed back on Substack and said like, look, they want to become a social network. They want to build a garden. They're building a garden, then they're going to put some walls up. Right now it looks like this beautiful garden. You can just come in and I. Mean if they get the app cooking, they're gonna put ads in that thing and they're gonna print. It's gonna be a great business. On the flip side, we are big fans of being in the big social media feeds. Like we have not like we love X, love Instagram, love YouTube. These are algorithmic platforms. If there were two, if substack were to become an algorithmic long post app, basically like Twitter, with more words. I think we would be. The long trough. Yeah, the long trough. We would be okay with that. I mean, we would certainly be the first ones because we have no paid subscribers. Yeah. But the whole premise of Substack and you look back at all the marketing materials is like, own your audience, have a direct relationship with your reader, don't be disintermediated by the platforms, and sort of come out and make a product decision like this. And you see where this goes. Feels at odds with everything that the company is built on. Yeah, yeah. I mean, at the end of the day, for me, it's about like, can our business model flourish in the long form written text and whether it's delivered? Like, there are a certain amount of people that read our newsletter in their email. If we can get them all to read in the app, like it's kind of six in one and half a dozen of another. To me, like, it is sort of neutral. And the bull case is that by going into the app, our stuff can go more viral and we wind up getting more views on average per post. But you live and die by the content, just like we do on YouTube, just like we do on Instagram, just like we do on Axe, just like we do anywhere else. It would be a unique thing. And every time that a feed switches from subscriber enforced to algo, creators always hate it. This is what happened to YouTube. YouTube, the default homepage used to just be your subscriptions. And then people realized that you could just bomb the subscriptions feed with a million videos and you'd get tons of impressions. And eventually they went algofeed and they show you a single video from Mr. Beast or whoever you're subscribed to. Maybe you're subscribed, maybe you're not. Maybe they just know that you'll like it. And you could see that same thing happening with newsletters. You open up the substack app and it says, hey, look, today TVPN put out a fantastic newsletter. Here you go. Other days it wasn't good, so we're not showing it to you. And that's weird because that's not the substack model, that's not the email model. I think people would revolt. But there is a world where being in that feed, being able to go viral within the Substack app is actually a net positive. It's sort of a. It's like a Darwinian survival scenario. Like you really have to. You have to thrive. You have to fight it out. You have to earn every view, earn every impression. But we'll see. We will assess. Yeah, I mean, it is notable. I don't think Chris or Hamish have responded to any of the criticism. Maybe they're responding on substack, Maybe over there. Maybe. Maybe we should have another show, debate it more. I don't know. It's interesting. But anyway, that concludes our show for the day. Have a great weekend. Merry Christmas.

As well as to those investment grade buyers. You know, back to what you were talking about from the tech standpoint, it's remarkable how Bozeman's exploded as really an emerging market in that tech industry. We're seeing a lot of tech people, high net worth tech individuals relocating in Montana, relocating in the Rocky Mountains in general, as well as buying large properties. You know, we're tied by a lot of NDA documents and NDA contracts. But there are a number of high net worth individuals that are relocating out here for a number of reasons. One is from a safety standpoint, they see Montana as very safe. They see the Rocky Mountain west is very safe. As you see the crime rates in some of these urban areas, that regardless of your political affiliation, there's concern about it. And I think as there continues to be concern about that, we're going to continue to have people that are driven to this market seeing as a safe, secure place to raise their family, to have their kids, to have their family, a family compound where they can gather at what kind of opportunities are there to actually monetize and generate yield?

Hemisphere when it particularly, particularly where it intersects with Chinese and Russian influence on our hemisphere. That being said, what I'm most concerned about over the next five years and beyond is what is the conventional balance of power in the Indo Pacific region? Because what I've been saying now for a decade is that Xi Jinping is serious when he talks about taking Taiwan by force. And all these operations, whether in the Middle east or whether they're in, you know, off the shores of Venezuela or in the Caribbean, will look like child's play compared with a major naval war with China over Taiwan. The scale is almost hard for us to imagine because we just haven't fought a war on that scale since World War II. Really, since the battle of Leyte Gulf in World War II, we haven't seen something of that scale. And I think one of the disadvantages, I almost hate to call it, that, that we have, is that in a, in a republic like ours, in a democracy like ours, we're very sensitive to casualties. Rightly so. We have an all volunteer military. We don't want to spend lives uselessly. Right. I mean, the American people won't stand up for that in a, in a dictatorship, in a Marxist Leninist system like that in China. I don't think Xi Jinping cares if he loses 10,000, 20,000, 50,000 PLA soldiers to achieve his lifelong ambition. This is actually a lesson that endures from the last time we fought the communists on the battlefields of Korea, on the Korean peninsula. They were just far less sensitive to casualties. So I only bring that up to say there are certainly lessons that are relevant across the world, but there are certain things peculiar to the nature of the adversary we face in China that I don't think is we. That I think makes it a much harder problem to deal with than Venezuela, if that makes sense. Yeah, completely. While what's up with the gong, can I.

Columbia class submarine, you know, the Constellation class frigate, the littoral combat ship prior to that. So all that is to say, for the first time in a long time now in the Trump administration, under the leadership of Secretary Phelan, the Navy is taking advantage of some money that was appropriated by Congress for non traditional bets on leveraging AI and autonomy and applying to shipbuilding and bringing in Palantir in this specific case, to turbocharged production in key shipyards, both public and private yards, and 100 key suppliers. So this is $448 million over two years. It's based on pilot work that we've already done at various shipyards and suppliers, the results of which have been incredibly promising. At one shipyard, we saved over 100 or 200 planning days, 20 planning days a week. You may ask yourself. There's only seven days in a week, but that's because there's four people whose full time job it is. They spend 160 working on Mandraulic processes. Now with our software, it takes 10 minutes. At another supplier process that used to take 200 hours for manufacturing, bill of materials is now down to 12 seconds. So just by modernizing the underlying software, leveraging AI, it's our belief that we can maximize production at the shipyards and then link the suppliers to the shipyards and all of that, what's called the maritime industrial base, to the Navy itself. So key Navy officials in general and the Secretary of the Navy in particular can look at the maritime industrial base and understand what's going on in real time and make critical allocations, decisions. Because a lot of what's happening at the yards, particular public yards, is just simple decisions about what do I buy now, what do I not buy now? And there's really no, like, there's no, there's no source of truth to make a sophisticated judgment on that. And that's what causes us to waste money and time. So this is all about maximizing production, getting more ships in the water, and ultimately fulfilling that geopolitical need for a bigger and more lethal Navy. Are there sailors that don't have boats right now or are we.

The G money bomb. Really? Yeah, that's right. My entire like eight years in Congress was devoted to this question of how do we enhance deterrence with respect to China. And if you look at it like there are things we need to do in the short term. Killer robots, a lot of the stuff. Anduril's building long range precision fires. But over the long term, if you just look at a map of the Pacific, we need a bigger navy. Right? We had a four structure assessment that called for a 355 ship Navy. When I was a freshman member of Congress in 2017, we made it the official policy of the United States to get to a 355 ship Navy as quickly as possible. As quickly as practically possible was the language. And then the size of our fleet continued to shrink. It's on track to bottom out at 279 Ships in 2027, which happens to be the year that Xi Jinping has set for having his military ready to invade Taiwan should he make the decision to move. So if for no other reason than if you look at geopolitics in the most fundamental sense, the collision of geography and politics, we need a larger navy to preserve the peace. We need to start cranking out ships. We have the high low mix of ships now. The reason we haven't been able to do that I think is a combination of factors, right? We have had.

On Demand Clusters. Up next, we have Matt Levine in five minutes. But let's go back to the timeline and clarify something with Augustus Darico. He says, am I tripping or did TBPN used to stand for Technology Brothers Podcasting Network? He says, Technology Business Podcasting Network. Did we get gentrified? Bros? What happened? Jordy, break it down for. I mean, I think real one. I think real ones will always know what the TB and TVPN stands for. We actually never refer to TVPN as like four words. It's just always the initials. Always the initials. Yes. You leave it up to the audience to interpret. Yes, it's becoming a thing. But it is actually on our website. It is spelled out on our website. It says Technology Business Programming Network. I still get that wrong often. I say Production Network. It's not production, it's Product Programming Network. Of course. It's a nod to espn. Of course. Technology and business is what we talk about. And so that made sense. And Technology Brothers TB always remains. Yes. In our hearts. Eternal. Eternal. Bar Epsilon. What's up with. What has Rivian been up to this week? We should play this clip.

Shame. Sa. Team deathmatch. You're watching TVPN. Today is Friday, December 12, 2025. Just 13 days till Christmas. We're live from the TVPN Ultradome, the. Temple of technology, the fortress of finance. The capital of capital. Ramp.com baby. Time is money save Both easy use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place. That's right. Death Star post. Now it makes sense. It all makes. It all makes sense. It wasn't a vague post. It was, it was, it was just early. A preview of a deal that would take shape four months later. Right. That's what was happening. Sam Altman, of course. What Was this? On GPT5 day, August 6, he posted a picture of the Death Star rising on the horizon. Very confusing post at the time. Now we understand. Now we get it. He was saying, hey, one day we're going to have rights to Star wars property through this deal with this Darth. Of course, Darth Sama. People did not like this post at the time. Nikita, people were saying, you should delete this. Just delete it. There's time to delete this. And the timing was really funny. It implied that they were about to release something, you know, so all powerful. Yeah. It was easy to read it that way. Yeah. You could also read it as like maybe they're going on the offensive against the Death Star, the Empire, which is Google. They're going to attack Google. There were a number of different ways to read into it, but it was. It felt confusing, it was confusing. And then it was. I feel like people were somewhat let down. Yeah, right. By GPT5. Yeah. People were expecting remarkably, qualitatively different. That's not, not what people got. And so the end result was people just remaining confused. We had a bunch of different takes on it. We think it makes sense now, but now it's even more clear with the Disney deal. But you wrote about the Disney deal. You dug into the deal and you kind of crystallized your take. So take me through it. Yeah. So some of the stuff I talked about yesterday, but I wrote about it for the newsletter today. TVPN.com I wrote 127 days. That's the gap between Sam's the Star Wars Death Star vague post and yesterday's announcement that Disney is investing $1 billion into OpenAI and giving them a three year license that allows users to generate AI photos and videos of the most popular 200 Disney characters. Most notably, OpenAI is guaranteed a one year exclusive on the IP. And while the post and the deal are probably not connected. I think it's funny to imagine that they are. Right before the deal was announced, Disney sent Google a cease and desist letter claiming Google had been violating Disney's intellectual property by allowing users to generate a variety of Disney characters. Many people outside tech seem shocked that Disney would license their IP in the first place, given their history of ruthlessly protecting it. There's a number of examples of Disney coming after kids birthday parties or at least that's how they positioned it. Of course these are businesses that are using, effectively using Disney characters to monetize. I read your draft and I was like, wait, they sued a child for having a Disney themed birthday party? There's two notable examples. One, one is coming after basically a birthday party service company, like a business. That sells and we will do your birthday party. And then they were selling and it'll be princess theme. Well, so what they, it wouldn't, they wouldn't directly call the characters that you could like rent the same names. It wasn't like Elsa. Okay. But it was clear in the reviews what Disney noted in the reviews. People would call the characters by the Disney name. One of their proof points. And there was also a story of a father who like wanted to do a spider man tombstone for his like very young son. That passed. And, and I think it was the effectively got blocked. It wasn't necessarily directly by Disney, but anyways, Disney has long standing policy of not letting other people PR nightmare. If your legal team comes to you and says like we want to sue. A dead person, like no, it was just like it wasn't a lawsuit or. Maybe it was a tombstone company. They were just saying like no, you can't make a spider man. Sure. Anyways, many people outside of tech seem shocked that Disney would license their ip, but Bob Iger knows that AI generated Disney will happen with or without the company's blessing. So partnering with OpenAI today while setting up negotiations with Google and other players makes a lot of sense. Again, I just expect this like cease and desist is the start of a negotiation process in order to get the same type of IP and capability ultimately into Gemini, but in 2027 not. Yeah, well, and maybe not. Right? Like one question I have is they have a one year exclusive after that period. Does Disney say, okay, you can keep having the exclusive, but you need to pay us like $1 billion a year. And at least Google's at the table. Negotiate? Is that what you mean? Yeah, exactly. So the strategic significance of this deal for OpenAI has been broadly underappreciated. Mainly because for a company that frequently talks in the trillions, Disney's investment, a paltry 1 billion, just isn't enough to turn heads. But the advantage this deal gives OpenAI from a product and distribution standpoint is extremely significant. Per the most recent reports, OpenAI has 20 to 30 million paid users out of a total of 900 million global globally. Disney, on the other hand, had 140 million people visit Disney parks in the last year and 128 million paid subscribers to Disney Plus. If you're an adult spending thousands of dollars to take your kids to Disneyland or a Disney plus subscriber, surely you'll pay an incremental amount to OpenAI to extend and personalize your Disney experience as a parent. Some of the most magical moments with AI that I've had are simply generate. I've talked about this before. I take a real photo of me and my son and I turn into dinosaur mode, generic design source, Dino mode. It really brings us both a lot of joy. I love these photos. It's his reaction to the picture that I'm getting joy from because he just like absolutely loves it. I had a similar experience where I would like take a picture of like, we would create a scene of toys and then we'd say like, make these LEGO versions of this or something. But the models got so good at a certain point that I was just like, okay, I made his toys look like toys and it just looks exactly like what I made. I need to just take a photo. I need more creativity to come up with something remarkable. So anyways, I think people, my household is not into the Disney world yet. The kids are just young. But I can imagine how excited if you're a Frozen superfan, an Avengers super fan, being able to put yourself, your kids into their world I think is gonna be pretty exciting. So having a license to generate high quality images and videos of 200 of characters creates a temporary but very real differentiation for tons of current and future ChatGPT users. Creates a real catalyst to pay, right? Like, my kids want more outputs. I'm assuming you'll get a handful for free and then you'll have to upgrade and it creates and it's just going to be super viral, right? These videos are going to be going into family group chats, they're going to be shared online. I think old. I think it's hard to imagine another Studio Ghibli moment in the way that that happened. But you could imagine that this will be getting a lot of attention. Knowing Sam and Josh They've likely negotiated to get Sora ChatGPT broad exposure across Disney properties both online and offline. And we already know that select Sora videos will be featured in Disney plus. I think they're going to be taking really making sure they're hand selecting those. Because I wonder what that means. I wonder if that means the Apple TV app or the Disney plus app on the phone because on an iPad, on a phone it feels a little bit more natural. But I mean just in terms of the Star wars property, like there's there are, there are the original Star wars films and then there's young Jedi Adventures which is Star wars for kids. The, you know, there's even less violence. It's more G rated than a PG13 rated. Even with Bluey, very popular children's show on, on Disney. On Disney plus there are full episodes that are like a full episode might be, I want to say like eight minutes long but then there's minisodes that are even shorter. So like the short formification is happening within the Disney app already. But I think a lot of parents would have a sort of negative reaction to just a feed. A feed? Yeah, an endless scrolling feed of short form Sora content. That's going to be really tricky. It needs to be some. It needs a twist. It needs curation. They said that there's already going to be curation but I wonder how that's. Going to roll out curation. But it could still very well be infinite. Yeah, well it doesn't need to be infinite. Well I just imagine it could be. Every like you could have, you could truly have like a monthly contest everyone prompts to create the most incredible Sora videos with Disney IP allow the most. Careers to bet on. Yeah, they definitely have to gamble on it for sure. That's a done deal. But, but you could, you could essentially have like a, like a film festival that's running and kids submit their generations. And then those film festival of seven second videos. I'm sure Hollywood will love that. Back in the, back in the vine days like the creative skill ceiling was incredible. People were doing remarkable, remarkable things with that, with that technology, that short form video. They would loop and do all sorts of stuff. I still believe that there's some really interesting things that you can do with generative systems with generative AI and I imagine that we will see some cool stuff come out of the Disney partnership. But I don't know that I'd want a kid sitting there watching Endless Slob. That seems rough but I mean at the same time A lot of parents. Are like, the trough comes forever. That's great because there are parents out there who are like, no, I'm actually just in the market for something that. Will keep their attention today. Right now I want them to stop talking. I need five minutes to do this. Thing or just need a babysitter. Anyway, I finish it out by saying my long held assumption is that over time, everyday consumers won't pay for lms. There will be great ad and commerce supported alums that provide the monetization to serve great models. But OpenAI's challenge is that even with future hall of Famers like Fiji Simo and Denise Dresser on board, Denise is of course the former CEO of Slack who's now the CRO at OpenAI. They can't massively scale monetization of the free product overnight. They can't just say, hey chat, CBT agent. Yeah, create a massive ad platform, don't make mistakes. And I said I don't expect those business lines to really begin ramping until the second half of next year and they need to show continued revenue growth now. Hard to think of a better time for this deal to get done than 11 days into OpenAI's code red. And right as Sora was about to fall out of the app store's top 25. I looked earlier this week, they were sitting at around 24. And again, as this new IP actually rolls out to users, I expect it to go right up back to number one. I said, will the functionality be immediately abused? Yes. Will it create uncomfortable moments for Disney's leadership? Yes. Is it a smart move for Disney? Yes. Will OpenAI have to shell out billions to maintain exclusive access over the long run? Yes. Will it be worth it? Quite possibly. I want to tell you about Julius AI, the AI data analyst that works for you. Join millions who use Julius to connect their data, ask questions and get insights in seconds. Second, I want to debate you on this idea that it will be abused immediately. I think it's actually really, really hard to abuse these systems. Like there was the whole, the first Gemini model where people would say make a, you know, a soldier from the 1940s and it would be a Nazi, but it would be a black Nazi. And so that people very upset about that because it was like just made no sense. But I think that the models and the more importantly like the reasoning chains that happen, like it's very clear that when you go to nanobananapro and you say take this image and make it Christmassy, it's unpacking that using Gemini as a LLM first. And it's hydrating it into something that it's actually reasoning about what you asked. Even if you just say, Christmas mode, Studio, Ghibli Mode, you know, like, you give it two words, and it actually is clearly hydrating it to a much. To a much broader degree. And I think that that reasoning step happens before, and I also think it happens after, so that even if it accidentally generates Mickey Mouse or, you know, someone doing something that they shouldn't be Mickey Mouse holding a gun or something, then it will detect that and actually turn that off. Like, it's been very hard, the whole, like, oh, jailbreak it. I got it. To say something crazy. Like, that's like. It's just like. Seems like a thing of the past. What do you think? I just. I just trust that the Internet immediately will figure out if you have. Yes. But hundreds of millions of people trying to jailbreak it. They will pull it off course. But the other thing that will happen is people using different models that are, like, already don't have the same guardrails and making it look like they're sore outputs, even though they're insane. Oh, totally, Totally, Totally. I'm just saying, like, open source model that's completely unrestricted. You do something crazy and then you throw the SORA watermark on it just to take a shot at. Stick it to Bob and Sam. It'll psyop. What do you think, Tyler? Yeah, I was gonna agree with Jordy. Like, I think, hey, what's this? What's this? Oh, yeah, I've just been, you know, I got double jaw surgery. Double jaw surgery and a little bone smashing. I've been bone smashing a bit. Yeah. Just trying to get my looks. You're looking fantastic. This is remarkable. I really. I really can't. Hats off to the production team. This is. This is a fantastic new feature to allow Tyler to look like the absolute look. Like, how I do every day. Yes. How you do every day. Sheesh. I love it. Yo, Chad's loving it. Okay, but I was gonna say, like, yeah, day one, there's gonna be people on X that, like, easily jailbreak it. I can't look at it. I can't take you seriously. Just look at us. And then they're just gonna post it, and then it's gonna go super viral, and then you'll have parents. Chad. No, it says Chad. Chad podcast. I love it. Banta Automate Compliance and Security AI that powers everything from evidence collection and continuous monitoring to security reviews and vendor risk. Okay, tell me Your actual take. Okay. Yeah. So. So I think like day one. Oh, what? What? What happened? Day one. There we go. There we go. Okay. Day one, you have people who jailbreak it. Even if it's like one person, then it goes super viral next. And then it's like, oh, Mickey Mouse, like shooting a gun. Yeah. Then it goes viral. Parents see it and they're like, okay, my kids aren't gonna be on this because even if it's like mostly like, you're gonna have a ton of backlash. Where it'd be bad, goes super viral. On CBS News or whatever. Yeah. Nah, I don't buy that. I think, I think, I think it, I think it will be very magical and I think that they'll immediately be getting shared in family group chats and, and you know, between friends and I think we're maybe underestimate the adult Disney audience as well. That could go two ways. Adult Disney. Okay, easy, John. Yeah, it is notable adult mode and the functionality are at around the same time. But the Pikachu getting barbecued, is that a violation? Is that something that they want to stop? If you're Bob Iger and someone shows you that Pikachu getting barbecued video, would you say, no, no, no, I don't want any videos out there of Mickey Mouse getting barbecued. What do you think? Do you think that crosses the line? I think Disney execs, if they saw that in a pre IPO world, would send a cease and desist. Wait, what do you mean pre ipo? Sorry, Pre AI world. Pre deal world. Okay. Like, I think that I would imagine that anybody that's been creating content like that. Yeah. They come after them in the same way that Ferrari. If Ferrari sees you like paint your like Ferrari some crazy color and do donuts, they'll just send you a cease and desist. Even though that. Even though you own the car. Yeah, right. They care. I'm just wondering, like, internally, where do you think the line is? So you think that they would. You think that, that, you know, whenever this rolls out, maybe it's already out. It might be out soon, but let's just assume it rolls out. January, you go to Sora, you can generate, you know, Luke Skywalker fighting with Spider man, because those are two Disney properties. Can you have Luke Skywalker cut Spider Man's arm off? Because Luke Skywalker does cut off people's arms. In the PG13 rated Star Wars, Spider man does not ever get cut. He never gets his arm cut off because he's more of a PG character. Right. So how do you blend those two together? And I'm just wondering, like, where is the line for the Disney execs? Like, where would they draw the line? How do they even think about a framework for holding, upholding the brand? I think we'll know it when we see it. You think so? I think it'd be a funny scenario where they only allow violence on Warner. Brothers characters, but they don't have the rights. But it's just like, oh, yeah, like you can. Well, they do that in Hollywood. There's some actors who have it in their contracts that they never will lose a fist fight. Basically they'll say, like, you know, you can cast me in this movie, but if we're. If I'm fighting up as somebody, I don't lose. We can tie, basically. So you know how you watch a lot of like Jason Statham and the Rock and like Fast and Furious and they're like bashing each other through walls for like five minutes, like this crazy action scene and then at the end you're like, oh, neither of them won't. It's like, that's because it's in the contract. They don't want to be. They don't want to be depicted as like losing. They want to be Aura Farm. They don't want to be Aura Farm. Exactly. They want to use graphite dot dev instead. Code review for the age of AI graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. Justine Moore has taken a victory lap. She's been on this case for a long time. She said, I got roasted by the anti ag. I crowded for suggesting that IP holders might want their characters in sora. They insisted that real entertainment companies would never willingly allow their characters to be used in AI Slop. Two months later how the times have changed. Fantastic prediction, Justine. Great work. I completely agree with this take. I think it is interesting how there is just the reality that if you hold ip, you need to exist in the world. You need to exist a lot. You can't just stay on the shelf. You can't be the Humphrey Bogart. And yesterday when Dylan from Puck was here, he was mentioning a bunch of old Hollywood references and I was laughing to myself because I know you have not seen Casablanca and you have no idea what he means by get on the plane or Rosebud or any of these references. You're just like, yeah, totally, dude. Yeah, yeah, give me another movie to watch this weekend. Because you tried to get me to. You got me to watch the Fugitive. And it was good, right? I delivered okay. Movies might be underrated. Movies are underrated. You heard it here first. Movies, underrated. At least in my household. Scroll down here. Because I wanted to show another post from Olivia Moore, who said, has Anyone else noticed VO3 has no IP constraints? Prompt Mickey Mouse welcoming you to Disney. Look at this, John. Sorry. Yes, I'm pulling up my movies. My movies list, which I will read to you in full. Anyway, so this was going back. This was going on back June 16th. What's crazy is that this somehow looks. This looked so good at the time. And I was like, oh, it's over. It's so over. They can fully do it. And yet this, now, looking back, this looks washed out. It doesn't have. It's, like, overly saturated or something. It looks like a green screen. Yeah, it doesn't actually look that good to me anymore. And it's because the goal posts have moved, as they always do. Anyway, let me tell you about our daily newsletter. Tech analysis and news Daily. Get our daily op ed, top headlines and best posts from the timeline. Every something, every day in your newsletter. It still cuts off. We're working on it. I'm just messing with the team here. Anyway, numeral.com, compliance handled numeral worries about sales tax and VAT compliance so you can focus on growth. Numeral. Bill Peebles is fired up. Do you want to hear. Do you want to hear my full movie? Okay, this is the full list. You can pick. And Tyler, you can play along, too. First up, the Godfather. Have you seen it? No. Wow. Okay. Taxi Driver? Never heard of it. Star Wars. You've seen Star Wars? Seen at least a couple. Raging Bull? No. Scarface? Yes. You've actually seen Scarface? Yes. Okay. Full Metal Jacket. But I didn't study it. I watched it, but I didn't take notes. Full Metal Jacket? No. Die Hard? Maybe die hard, like 10 years ago. You gotta see Die Hard. Goodfellas? No, you gotta watch Goodfellas. This is so good. Reservoir Dogs. Maybe. Falling Down? Never heard of it. Falling Down's a good one. Pulp Fiction? Seen it. Okay. Heat? Heard of it. Haven't seen it. Casino? Never heard of it. Braveheart? Heard of it. Haven't seen it. You've never seen Braveheart? Wow. Okay. Hackers? No. Apollo 13? No. Contact? No. The Fifth Element? No. Saving Private Ryan? No. You haven't seen Saving Private Ryan? Wow. Fight Club. Seen it? You've seen some Fight Club. Thank goodness. The Matrix? Seen it. American Psycho? Seen it. Gladiator? No. See, now we're in the 2000s. So we're more likely. But the fact that you haven't seen Gladiator, I mean, that's a good, fantastic film. You got to watch Gladiator. Lord of the Rings. At least one. What do you mean, at least one? You mean at least once? You've watched the full trilogy at least once? No, I'm saying I don't think I've. Watched the full trilogy. You just watched a random movie in the trilogy. Probably the first one. The first one. It's a. It's Act One. You didn't finish the Lord of the Rings. It's the three act structure. You can't just watch one and call it. Call it. I guess I can. It's ridiculous. Minority report? No. 300? No, you didn't see 300. That's crazy. Troy, the Departed, the Prestige. You're just. I'm not making things up. No country for Old Men. I think I've seen that one. The Dark Knight. Seen it. Iron Man. See, now this is. This is now we're getting into. We've passed, you know. Yeah. I've only seen three now. Yeah, I've seen a handful, but. A few handfuls. Sicario. Have you seen Sicario? No, but I. Okay, that's good. I like the. Gotta watch the car. I like the. I know the memes from it. Yeah, we gotta. We gotta run through the rest. The chat is. Chad's getting angry. There's so many good ones here. Iron Man, Gran Torino, Inception, the Social Network, Tron Legacy, the Town Drive, Enemy, Wolf of Wall Street, American Sniper, Edge of Tomorrow, John Wick, Interstellar, Nightcrawler, Mad Max, Fury, Road Ex Machina, the Martian, Sicario, the Revenant, Dunkirk, Blade Runner, 2049. I was Ad Astra, Joker, tenant, Dune. I have seen John. I've seen John Wick. I have seen John Wick. Funny story. I was on a flight back from London. Yeah. And it was like, effectively 3am the whole plane's dark. And Keanu Reeves just walks by my seat. Wait, in the actual plane? Yes. That's wild. Just walks by and it was like. Wait, and you were watching John Wick on the seat? No, I wasn't. Oh, okay. Okay. Yeah. But it's not. But he walks by and imagine seeing, like, Keanu, like, you're on an overnight flight, it's dark in the plane and he just, like, walks by. I think he was using the restroom and I ended up watching it after that. Yeah. To be. To be fully immersed. Anyways, I think Sicario would be the pick. If you have one movie to Watch tonight. I would say Sicario. It's a great one. I know that you're gonna like it in the same way that you liked the Fugitive with Harrison Ford. Great big Bill. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design development teams build great products together. Bill Peebles. Sora meets Disney is going to be pure magic. Dream come true to be working with them. Let's give it up for Bill Peebles. Yeah, seriously, what a great partnership for him. Especially because there's a lot of people that have been pointing to Sora falling out of the App store charts. Sora is not doing that well. And it's like, that might be true, but Sora is still the number one generative AI video app. Right. It's kind of like winning by default. So it's not like you should cut your losses. It's not like you've been beaten. It's clearly still a category that you want to go after. And so why not go get a big partnership? Why not keep iterating to get to breakout success, to get to product market fit? The model's going to get better. You know, the research team's working on that and now you have more IP and then the actual implementation of the app is going to get better. So congrats to Bill Peebles on the partnership. Job's not finished. Yeah, it's already. I mean, it's back up to 15 already, probably just based on the news, even though I don't know that all this functionality is actually available yet. More importantly, Hero Thousand Presents says 5.2. How about 5.2 cold ones with the boys? It's a beautiful Thursday night, folks. It's hilarious. This latest model is state of the art on Beer Bench, which is if I crack it open, it makes a fizzy sound and I go, hell yeah. Very good. Tyler Cowan says chat GPT 5.2 also knows exactly which are the best Paul McCartney songs. And it can write a poem in Spanish as good as the median Pablo Neruda poem. Tyler Cowan loves the GPT models. He's obsessed. Have you ever. He's the most obsessed. And I. Yet I've never seen somebody make the claim that he was one shot. That's true. That's true. He's pretty elite. He's using responsibly. He's using responsibly. Yeah. I haven't really had a chance to play too much with the new model. Is it already rolling out? Yeah, I am on 5.2 already. 5.2 pro I was working through. I hit 5.2 pro with a question because I wanted to know. So it does feel like OpenAI is a little bit of the coming out of the trough of disillusionment potentially. The vibes have been really bad with the 1.4 trillion, but the global economy has not collapsed and the market is rallying. And there were in fact not an Enron scenario. None of the big, big tech companies blew up. Like we've moved on now maybe it happens but in general it seems like expectations have sort of reset and now we're going into 2026. It's kind of a new game. But you know, OpenAI still has a really dominant consumer business and it what looks like it's shaping up to be an oligopoly in the enterprise side or the B2B side. And so nothing is a five alarm fire. They're in the Code Red. But if you it feels like they will emerge stronger from it. The big question is how will Sam Altman be perceived? Will he be one of the greatest founders of all time? Founders, CEOs and I was trying to benchmark him. Let's say that he lands the plane, gets out of the Code Red Baja, blasts his way into the public markets and he winds up being this founder CEO of a multitrillion dollar consumer tech company. He's in the Mag seven, It's, it's the Mag eight. How will he be remembered? And I was, and I was, and I was thinking about how unique his ownership structure would be because for most CEO, founder CEOs if they get the company out into the public markets at a trillion dollars or something like that, they typically own a ton. Steve Jobs is notably at various times not a major shareholder. At one point he owned 5.5 million shares out of almost a billion shares. So he had half a percent or 0.6% in 2011. That's reported here. Bill Gates on the other hand, absolutely an absolute dog. 13.7% ownership of Microsoft. So you know, at a trillion dollars that's 137 billion. That's a lot of ownership. Alphabet, Google, obviously both of them became some of the richest people in the world Today. The economic ownership is only around 3% but still significant. Jeff Bezos is at 14% with Amazon. Jensen is at 3.7%. 3.77% of Nvidia. Of course, it's been a 30 year trip. Elon Musk almost 20% at Tesla, 19.7% Meta. Well, it's interesting the things at 13.5. Given, given how much dilution OpenAI has had to take and all the shareholders. Starting as a nonprofit. There's well that. But there's a world where if the company had just been formed as a C corp back in the day in 2015 and they had just raised a bunch of rounds rounds back to back to back and there was a bunch of co founders initially, would Sam actually have, it's rumored what he's going to get something like 7% was a proposal, sure. Would he have less than that in that scenario? Obviously he could get topped up, but I don't think in the fullness this will end up working out that badly for Sam. Yeah, yeah it is interesting because just like being founder CEO of a trillion dollar consumer tech company that usually is good enough to get you $50,100,000,000,000. But we'll see where it lands. I'm not quite sure what will happen. Did you want to run through this post from Greg? I'd love to, but first I'm going to tell you about Profound get your brand mentioned in ChatGPT reach millions of consumers who use AI to discover new products and brands. Greg Kamrat, who of course is the president of arkprize and the creator of some fantastic TVPN trading cards that he's been printing out. That he's been printing out. We were shocked by this. Thank you Greg for the tireless work on that project. It's very fun, very cool and you have such an important day job. We were shocked when we found out that you were making something cool on the side. But he says the jump to reasoning models will be studied for years. They are still wildly underrated. ARC AGI1 has been out for six years. GPT 5.2 is a five order of magnitude scale up and yet it still lands at 12%. Add a bit of reasoning and performance immediately jumps. And so you can see the Arc AGI1 leaderboard. GPT 5.2 is only at 12%. But when you get to low, medium high, extra high over in the reasoning models or you switch to the pro models, you're getting up to 90% on ARC AGI. Of course, the test of that any human can do and yet AI has struggled with for a long time. Not for long. AI is starting to make headroom or make headway on the ARC AGI leaderboard. Very impressive results. Opus 4.5 didn't do too poorly either. Grok 4 of course is also doing well. Who else is? And has Gemini not benched on this yet or have they not been focusing on this? I'm not exactly sure but I'm excited to see what happens with Arc AGI V3. It feels like we're not even showing those scores yet because I think that none of the models are scoring at all yet. They're not even finishing. And I think it's an optimization problem to get the least number of moves. But it is interesting because the model card that Sam shared had a caveat around the OpenAI models. I sent this to Tyler last night asking him about this because. So Sam Altman shows OpenAI GPT 5.2 thinking versus GPT 5.1 thinking. And there's huge step ups across SW bench, GPQA, Diamond Frontier Math, AIME RKGI 1, RKGI 2, GDP, VAL. Like there's jumps of various sizes all over. And then there's also Anthropic and Google, Gemini 3 Pro and Claude Opus 4.5 are also benchmarked there. And of course, when you read into it, OpenAI's GPT 5.2 thinking wins on almost all these benchmarks, except for the advanced mathematics tier one through three and tier four, where Gemini 3 Pro wins, actually. But down at the bottom there's a little caveat and it says OpenAI models were run with maximum available reasoning effort. So these models now have the ability to reason for longer. You can just throw more time at them. But I was asking Tyler. It's weird because this makes it look like OpenAI is cheating and Anthropic and Google are doing more of a by the book approach to their benchmarking or whatever. But Tyler was sharing that actually all the labs now run their models at maximum reasoning effort because they all want to maximize the benchmarks. Well, yeah, I mean, you're going to run on your best model. Yeah, it's just, it's just weird to put that caveat for you and not your enemies. Isn't that weird? Yeah, I don't know. That's just like standard practice. Like they're not going to benchmark on the, on their worst model. No, no, no, no, they're not. But, but, but if anything you would. Want to just, just you would want to say for all the different. All the labs, all the labs are running on maximum available reasoning effort. We're just like that. I don't know. Yeah, we should build a model that reasons for 100 years. What happened? Oh, he's back in chat mode. Missing it. This is insane. You didn't even. You didn't notice the difference? No, I didn't. Because when, when I'm talking to Tyler, I look at him as I look at his face. I know. Don't look at the screen. I'm going to jump in here. So, Jay. Yeah. J Boll T A R D over on X says Oracle is a train wreck. How did they not disclose these delays on the call two days ago? And Bloomberg is reporting that Oracle delays some data center projects for OpenAI to 2028. Oracle has pushed back the completion dates for some of the data centers it's developing for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027. The delays are largely due to labor and material shortages, said the people asking not to be identified. Oracle has been working to deliver over on a $300 billion contract to supply the computing power necessary to train and run OpenAI's models since it was inked this summer. Even with the delays, the timelines for the project in the US remain ambitious for sites that are set to become some of the largest in the world. I remember when this news broke we talked about how Oracle was basically saying like we're going to build AWS in two years and that just felt like applaud the sort of ambition. But I think some of these delays, labor shortages, et cetera, were predictable. Bloomberg says our take on Oracle's massive bet on AI. Oracle's AI bet has fast become a bubble barometer. Little bub talk. Oracle spokesperson said in a statement that the company remained confident in its ability to meet its obligations and future expansion plans. There have been no delays to any sites required to meet our contractual commitments and all milestones remain on track. Site selection and delivery timelines were established in close coordination with OpenAI and they said we have ambitious achievable goals for capacity delivery, yada, yada, yada. The whole market's down today. I wanted to wear a white suit, but it is not the day for that. Did you see Broadcom? We celebrated yesterday? It seemed like they beat earnings, but. And they revealed their mystery $10 billion customer, Anthropic. Didn't people think it was OpenAI? I think at the time everyone thought it was OpenAI, but Broadcom is selling off significantly down 10%. Really, really bad. Really, really bad news. Yeah. So Broadcom revealed during a September earnings call that it had signed a customer that had placed a $10 billion order for custom chips. Tan said yesterday that Anthropic had placed an additional $11 billion order with Broadcom in the company's latest quarter. So at the time, originally in September, Broadcom didn't say who it was. But yesterday, Hock Tan revealed. So anyway, so it's selling off because. Of Questions about Broadcom sales forecasts, contracts backlog and anticipated future margins. Despite reporting a record $18 billion in sales and strong profit growth. That's what we latched onto from that hilarious post of the crying bear. Well, the bear's not crying now. The bear is wretched because the bear was short. The bear is. The bear is excited. Margins appear to be one area of concern. Chief Executive Hawk Tan said Broadcom's fast growing AI business has lower gross margins than other areas. Its forecast for non AI revenue in the first quarter was flat. So the revenue mix is changing, the margin mix is changing. And so some analysts cast the stock move as an overreaction and noted it came after a 75% run up this year so far. We can expect it to recover, wrote a team from Citi Research that reiterated its buy rating on the stock, saying that upside from the AI business will continue to push up earnings estimates. I wonder why the AI business is so much lower margin like we've seen like over the past few years. Nvidia has actually expanded margins and grown their market, their gross margins significantly during the AI boom. Broadcom doesn't seem to have the same leverage as Nvidia and so they've been struggling, unfortunately. Meanwhile, Apollo, according to Compound248 casually predicting zero returns for the S&P 500 over the coming decade. They put this out yesterday, a note on expected returns in public equities over the coming years. The historical relationship between the S&P 500 forward PE ratio and the subsequent subsequent 10 year annualized returns show that investors should expect to get zero return in the S&P 500 over the coming decade. They have a chart below. They're like, hey, can we interest you in some private credit opportunities where or. You know, the other option. What's the other thing you want to invest in? When the stock market isn't looking so. Good, puts Land, Land, Land. And we have Mike Swan on the show landmaxing, the owner of Swan Land company. We saw him at advertising some land in the Wall Street Journal. We said we gotta get him on the show and we did. So we're very excited to talk to him in 15 minutes all about Land and his business. I've talked about this. Land I think is the most criminally underrated asset by new generation of investors. Nobody wants to make steady returns. Landmaxing. They want to hit the thousand x meme coin. They want to hit the 1% poly market, whatever it is. Well, let me tell you about Adeo, the AI native CRM. Adeo Builds scales and grows your company to the next level. There is. The timeline has been in turmoil over Klein and some posts are getting deleted. So I don't even know if we're going to be able to pull these up. But here's what happened. Yeah. Break it down. Somebody at Klein commented on a picture from a hackathon. Yes. And said, imagine the smell. Yes. People thought he was making. They thought it was like a racist comment. Yes. People started piling on. Yes. The CEO initially defended him and said, I'm like, I know I can vouch for this guy. He's fine. People kept piling on. The CEO ended up turning around and said, actually, we've let this guy go. Yeah. And then now the CEO is getting even more. More hate on from letting the guy go. And then now he's deleting the post and so. And so maybe the guy maybe ends up rehiring. Feels like damage is pretty done at this point, I'd imagine. You know, I'd imagine this. This engineer that was formerly a client finds a new. It'd be hard to imagine him saying, like, going back and saying, like, I'm actually going to rejoin the team that just. I have a brief screenshot saved a little bit. I think I can. I think I can read it, some of it. This is the CEO of clients says a few days ago a tweet from our head of AI offended a lot of people and it definitely offended a lot of people. There's an article in the Hindustan Times in India. Like, this is like, newsworthy in India. Well, I don't believe his original tweet was intended to be offensive. His response, refusing to apologize does not reflect my position or Klein's. We recognize this caused real pain and that deserves blah, blah, blah. And so the rest is cut off. Lulu says this stinks. She's not a fan of it. Yeah. She says re calms mistakes, everyone makes them. Sometimes things fall flat. It's happened to me and it also happens to people much smarter. But betraying people or principles is in a different category. It's more preventable and less excusable. Cowardice doesn't happen by accident. In the case of Smell Gate, it could be argued that Posh made the first kind of mistake, overlooking how the joke could be interpreted. But then the CEO inarguably made the second kind of mistake, and that one, to me is much worse. Nat Eliason posted Friend of the show I'm not sure if he's in the chat today. Said considering the unanimous reaction to the CEO's post saying that he will fight that they let go of the engineer. Nat says will he fire himself now? Only seems fair. So I don't know. I don't know if it'll get that. Far, but certainly the entire company gets fired. Fireception just everyone gets fired. No, the funny thing is that the only reason I know about this joke is from a bunch of Indian friends who seem to have been making it on anonymous accounts years ago in some sort of funny attempt to reclaim the the formerly racist joke. But Lulu says when you cave to the mob instead of standing by your employee and now people are more mad at you than before and she quotes, your worst sin is that you have destroyed and betrayed yourself for nothing. Yeah, it's really odd because it feels like although it was going viral, like this just feels like something that would have blown over at least like take a breather, take a week or two. Just like, you know, take some time off to think about the action. It feels very reactive to do it like within a 24 hour news cycle which like can just amp up so quickly and then fall out. Okay, I guess the Hindustan Times is not very serious. It's the Gawker of India apparently, so don't worry about that. I guess I'm wrong on that. Thanks for fact checking me. Siraj Frank says is responding. Trump in an interview yesterday said that he would consider eliminating taxes on gambling winning. Frank said prediction markets be like, nevermind, it is gambling. It is gambling because they always use trade. They always use like it's not, it's not bat. You trade on future trade, trade on. Sports, trading on this. Wait, actually. And yeah, it is interesting to think about, you know, creating taxes. Taxes on tips. I remember that was like a thing during the, during the election. Did that ever go through? Because I remember we were joking. We're like, oh, we're gonna tip everyone here. I think everyone made that joke at some point. Apparently it is a glorified tabloid. So, you know, don't. If you're an American CEO and the Hindustan Times is putting you in the truth zone, let it be known that maybe take it with a grain of salt. Anyway, this just feels like a whole series of people. It's like Trump likes being edgy and funny, making jokes and he says I'd consider it. And then watcher guru takes it and turns it into a viral thing and then somebody dunks on it and they get viral points and it all feels deeply unserious and not really like it's going to reshape the market anytime soon. But it certainly is a funny headline. Yeah, I think a lot of people would hope that he'd be like, no, we're not going to create tax incentivized gambling in this country. But he didn't. Stranger things have happened. Stranger things have happened. What is this classical theist says increasing the incentive to gamble as an answer to the affordability crisis is nothing short of diabolical. That is. Yeah, very, very rough. I don't know. Yeah, seems like the thing you should tax extremely highly. Seems like the best thing to potentially tax. Arthur Pigou in shambles, the Pigouvian tax creator. Are you familiar with Pigouvian taxes? No. It's basically this idea that like you can use taxes to shape behaviors, incentives. So like if you don't want people to drive gas guzzling cars, you just increase the tax on gasoline. Instead of, instead of trying to make something illegal or promote something or incentivize something, you just shift the tax to be tax on tobacco. People will smoke less, in theory, of course. Cigarettes, they're addictive. I mean, California's done done this so aggressively with gasoline in the state and arguably it's worked. I mean there's a ton of electric cars in California. Like there really are less gas guzzling cars. So if that was the goal, mission accomplished. It kind of worked. What do you think? I was going to say, isn't that like the idea behind the land value tax? Yes, a little bit. It's not quite the same. Land value tax is more because you're. Incentivizing people to develop the land. Yes, yes. But I think Pigou via in Texas more is like the opposite, like the negative. Like it's a way to disincentivize negative externalities, like negative behavior. But I suppose it works both ways. Anyway. Yeah, this was interesting. This scoop from Alex Cantrowitz. Did you see this? So Alex Cantrowitz from Big Technology. What a great name. He says Scoop. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman gathered news leaders for lunch in New York City on Monday. He told them enterprise AI will be a massive priority for OpenAI in 2026. And Greg Brockman says, yeah, enterprise AI is going to be a huge theme for 2026. What's. And this tracks with hiring Slack CEO as CRO, right? Totally. Yeah. Yeah. The question is what, what, what does this actually look like? Right. I think a lot of people are using ChatGPT at work. They're using a variety of LLMs. There was another going after Harvey. That's the big question. Harvey seems to be doing really well. And I think of law firms as enterprises and I think of law firms as potential targets for an OpenAI Enterprise Plan. Am I crazy? Yeah, I don't think you're crazy. Okay. There was a funny post here from Peter Gurness. Not a super serious post, but I think it's worth reading. He says, last quarter I rolled out Microsoft copilot to 4,000 employees. $30 per seat per month. 1.4 million annually. I call it digital transformation. The board loved that phrase. They approved it in 11 minutes. No one asked what it would actually do, including me. I told everyone it would 10x productivity. That's not a real number, but it sounds like one HR. Asked how we'd measure the 10X, I'd said we'd leverage analytics dashboards. They stopped asking three months later. I checked the usage reports. 47 people had opened it. 12 had used it more than once. One of them was me. I used it to summarize an email I could have read in 30 seconds. It took 45 seconds plus the time it took to fix the hallucinations. But I called it a pilot success. Success means a pilot didn't visibly fail. The CFO asked about our roi. I showed him a graph. The graph went up and to the right. It measured AI enablement. I made that metric up. He nodded approvingly. We're AI enabled now. I don't know what that means, but it's in our investor deck. A senior developer asked why we didn't use Claud or chatgpt. I said we needed enterprise grade security. He asked what that meant. I said, compliance. He asked, which compliance? I said, all of them. He looked skeptical. I scheduled him for a career development conversation. He stopped asking questions. Microsoft sent a case study team. They wanted us to feature. They wanted to feature us as a success story. I told them we saved 40,000 hours. I calculated that number by multiplying employees by a number I made up. They didn't verify it. They never do. Now we're on Microsoft's website. Global Enterprise achieves 40,000 hours of productivity gains with Copilot. The CEO shared it on LinkedIn. He got 3,000 likes. He's never used Copilot. None of the executives have. We have an exemption. Strategic focus requires minimal digital distraction. I wrote that policy. The licenses renew next month. I'm requesting an expansion. 5,000 more seats. We haven't used the first 4,000, but this time we'll drive. Adoption. Adoption means mandatory training. Training means a 45 minute webinar. No one watches. But Completion must be tracked. Completion is a metric. Metrics go in dashboards. Dashboards go in board presentations. Board presentations get me promoted. I'll be SVP by Q3. I still don't know what Copilot does, but I know what it's for. It's for showing we're investing in AI. Investment means spending. Spending means commitment. Commitment means we're serious about the future. The future is whatever I say it is. As long as the graph goes up and to the right. 134,000 likes on that one. What a long post. You go, that's fantastic. I was thinking about the fact that we now have a data point for Agent Force revenue and we also have a data point for. Okay, you have to take that with a grain. You have to take that with a grain of salt because Salesforce is or they are the greatest to ever do enterprise sales. And we do know that they're selling AgentForce as like an add on. Yeah. And I'm going with this. Okay. But first I'm going to tell you about Restream one livestream, 30 plus destinations. If you want a multi stream, go to restream.com. okay. So my point was you can actually get to a dollar per token because we've also seen that leak of how many tokens they're generating. Remember? And everyone was like, oh, Benioff's like not generating that many tokens. And so you can see that he's probably making the most dollar per token of anyone in the industry because you can look at other companies and see how many tokens they're generating their rough revenues. And we can work through all the math. Tyler, have we done this with Anthropic or OpenAI? Because we were looking at rough revenue token how much they've done it. Yeah, I think I tried doing this at some point. It's just so hard because they, they don't like break it up in a nice way. Like I think at some point Demos said they're doing like over a quadrillion a month. Sure. But then what is the revenue? We don't know. Yeah, we don't know for. And then for OpenAI like we, I think we knew their API token count. Yeah. And then the, the revenue was leaked, but it was overall revenue wasn't broken up. Yeah. So you can maybe estimate it based off subscription percentage. Still. Still. I feel like we got to, we got to put together the Agent Force numbers to figure out Agent Force must. Be because I mean I think the leaked like 3 trillion or something. It was a Very low amount and. They'Re making like half a billion dollars. So they're, they're printing. And that must be like 99.999% margin too, right? Like, how much does it cost to generate a trillion tokens? Like 10 bucks or something? I don't know. Well, yeah, I think we also calculated this too because we wanted to get on the OpenAI. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So if you do the batch tokens and like the 4.0 model, it's like 20 bucks. Can you imagine Betty officer sitting there like, yeah, COGS 10, $10, I made half of a billion. I don't know. Yeah. Tokens are the new page views, the new eyeballs. But we should actually get both of those numbers in a spreadsheet and see if there's any other numbers we can pull through because I would love to see them. In the meantime, let me tell you about Gemini 3 Pro. Google's most intelligent model yet. State of the art reasoning. Next level vibe coding and deep multimodal understanding. What are you laughing at? A post went very viral a couple days ago. Someone saying, come on now, because Tubi has a movie out called the Grinch that Stole Bitches. And to be responded. To be responded. Tis the season. Incredible, incredible response from the Tubi team. Yeah. And did you see this? Sorry, did you see this chart? Crime from. This is from Riley. Riley says, put this on a shirt. So OpenAI launched a merch store called supply.OpenAI.com, very fun. Bunch of shirts in there. You can get basketball, you can get a bunch of cool stuff. But then Riley's sort of dunking and saying, like, put this on a shirt. It's like how crazy the financials are over at OpenAI. And I get it. Like merch store. Probably not the biggest priority while you're in code red on your core product. Like, that's a legit concern. But. But the Financial Times. What are we doing with this chart? This is a crazy, crazy chart. So first off, this says OpenAI's estimated balance sheet. But then it has revenue on here and revenue doesn't go on the balance sheet. So what are we doing? And I'm just so confused by this. And so total cost of cloud compute, that's the purple bar down there. Cogs also don't go on the balance sheet. So both of those don't belong there. Then the red dots are new equity fundings that they're planning to do and that should go on the balance sheet because that's assets that come in. But Then free cash flow that comes from the cash flow statement. So it's just like this is such a chart crime from anyone who has respect for the three statements. This is the financial, this is the Financial Times. I have a lot of respect for the Financial Times. I love the Financial Times. But, but I was just very shocked. I mean it's more like OpenAI estimated financials. I don't know. It's sort of an interesting chart. It's also just very weird how there's like bars and dots and it's like what does the bar mean? What does the dot mean? Like it's like the dot feels like it's more of like, I don't know, it's a very confusing chart. It does tell an interesting story though which is that they're projecting revenue increasing while costs also increase and they're gonna have to raise more money and eventually they're gonna, you know, they're gonna lose a lot of money. There's gonna be negative free cash flow for a number of years. Then eventually they will turn positive. I don't know. It seems like it's a bold five year plan. We've heard about this. It's funny to see it laid out like that. But ultimately they're, you know, like whether or not they deliver is sort of immaterial to their merch efforts. Anyway, what OpenAI is not going to like the post I read after you talk to me about cognition. Cognition. The team behind the AI software engineer Devin Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. What post are you pulling? Jacob Elordi says he has no tolerance for AI and finds the whole conversation around it so effing boring. He would not like the show. He says I would much rather kiss on the beach and read a novel and be sunburned. Most pick me moment of It's a. Crazy line of the year. It's a crazy line but it resonated 91,000 people agree. This is hilarious. Yassin made who makes technical deep learning tutorials says yo Jacob, come on my live tomorrow we're going to be review this paper. It's almost as good as the stuff you mentioned. See you tomorrow buddy. And it's a surprising effective of negative reinforcement and LLM reasoning. That's a very very funny. Okay, one more post before we start. Landmaxing sucks says God blessed us again. Shocker. A thousand year American empire and open source intel is reporting a major deposit of rare earth and critical minerals has been uncovered in Utah which the Wall Street Journal calls the most significant critical mineral reserve in the U.S. okay, we did it again. We did it again. If you're a nation without, you know, a lot of critical minerals, it's probably a scale issue. This is actually a good transition to our next guest, Mike Swan. Before we bring him in, let me tell you about Privy. Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rail securely spin up light label wallets, sign transactions, integrate on chain infrastructure all through one simple API. We will bring in Mike Swan, the managing owner of Swan Land Company. Mike Swan, how are you doing? Welcome to the show. Doing well. Gentlemen, how are you? Merry Christmas. Thank you so much for taking the time to come talk to two. I don't know, probably random people. What was the timeline here? We saw the ad. Was it Monday? Yeah, it was. In the weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal in the special mansion section, we saw the Swan Land Co. Advertisement and we were like, we've wanted to invest in land. We think that there's a lot of people in our audience. I've talked on the show that I think the new generation of investors, they want to buy crypto coins, they want to be trading options, they want to do NFTs, all this stuff.

Take a shot at. Stick to Bob and Sam. What do you think, Tyler? Yeah, I was gonna agree with Jordy. Like, I think. Hey, what's this? What's this? Oh, yeah. I've just been. You know, I got double jaw surgery. Double jaw surgery. And a little bone smashing. Bone smashing a bit, yeah. Just trying to get my looks. You're looking fantastic. This is remarkable. I really. I really can't. Hats off to the production team. This is a. This is a fantastic new feature to. To allow Tyler to look like the absolute gigachad. Looks like how I do every day. Yes. How you do every day. Sheesh. I love it. Yo, Chad's loving it. Okay. But I was gonna say, like, yeah, day one, there's gonna be people on X that, like, easily jailbreak it. I can't. I can't look at it. I can't take you seriously. Just look at us. And then. And then they're just gonna post it, and then it's gonna go super viral. And then you'll have parents. Chad. Chad. Podcast. I love it. Banta Automate Compliance and security AI that powers everything from evidence collection.