Design and development teams build great products together. Let's see. SoftBank sells his entire stake in Nvidia for 5.83 billion. Quantian says no, they expect one of us in the wreckage, brother. Have we started the fire? Why? I don't understand how this links to what's happening here. Why? Who's in the fire? Like, how is this? How is this? I don't understand this. Do you understand this? I just like the line, they expect one of us in the wreckage, brother. Yeah, it's funny because it's from the Dark Knight Rises. Right? But, but like selling Nvidia, selling your stake in Nvidia. Like, are people mad about this because they think Nvidia is going to rip. Further or selling your stake in Nvidia. Yeah, to buy. To actually buy shares in a company that you've already marked a. You're, you're showing a gain on in the last quarter. Yeah. So basically SoftBank is booking profits. Sure. OpenAI profits. They are then selling Nvidia shares to fund the original investment of which they've already booked the profits on. And the number one driving force behind Nvidia's growth is OpenAI. Yeah. Is that true? I mean, how big is OpenAI as a customer of Nvidia? I mean, yeah, it's probably the biggest, but I mean, the rest of the hyperscalers still buying a ton of Nvidia, right? I don't know. I mean, yeah, I would say, like, indirectly they're a big customer, but like, obviously it's not like they're funding the data centers. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, so James Thorne says today we will get the SoftBank completely sold out of Nvidia. Fear from bears on mainstream media and Wall Street. Does anyone do objective research anymore? SoftBank initially bought its Nvidia stake through the vision fund in 2017, then exited completely in January 19th. They missed it. They lost patience. Not the first time. And so, yeah, when did they buy this latest slug? That's the question. SoftBank sold 32 million shares of Nvidia in October. Also sold part of its stake in T Mobile for 9 billion. It's not the first time they've cashed out of the chip maker. That's a funny way to put it. Despite the sale, SoftBank remains tied to Nvidia through its other ventures. Yeah, that makes sense. Anyway, let me tell you about Vanta. Automate compliance, manage risk, improve trust with AI. Vanta helps you get compliant fast. And they don't stop there. Our AI and automation powers everything from evidence collection to continuous monitoring and security reviews and vendor risk. Warren Buffett says he's going quiet the world's most famous investor warns against corporate greed as he prepares to hand over the reins of Berkshire Hathaway. There are a bunch of interesting posts, but there's also a story in the Financial Times. I don't think it hit the paper edition yet, but we can read the paper edition. Always lagging. So Warren Buffett has told Berkshire Hathaway shareholders that he is going quiet, quote unquote, as the world's most famous investor draws a line under a career that has shaped corporate American Wall street over the past six decades, as the British would. I'm going quiet, sort of, buffett wrote in a letter published Monday. The 95 year old will step back from day to day responsibilities at Berkshire at the end of this year when he retires from his role as chief executive. Craig Abel, of course, is coming in. Investors have long seen Buffett, often called the Oracle of Omaha, as a corporate folk hero, interspersing guidance on his portfolio company's performance with life and business advice, his frank manner with shareholders, both his annual letters and his marathon question and answer sessions during the annual meetings in Omaha has been a hallmark of his tenure. Buffett's letter to shareholders on Monday took the same tone, with warnings about corporate greed interlaced with calls for kindness. He noted, for instance, that requirements for executive compensation disclosures backfired as business chiefs engaged in a race to earn more than rivals. What often bothers very wealthy CEOs they are human, after all, is that other CEOs are getting even richer, Buffett said. Envy and greed walk hand in hand. Interesting. Buffett added that Berkshire should try to avoid future CEOs who are looking to retire at 65 or who want to become look at me rich or initiate a dynasty look at me rich. What an interesting turn of phrase. Yeah, it's very notable that Buffett has never been photographed doing a money spread wearing Balenciaga Rick Owens. Does he have any chrome hearts? Probably no chrome hearts. He's never been photographed with chrome hearts. With chrome hearts on it is cool. He's going to continue to do his thanks. Thanks. A letter every Thanksgiving. I love that. I thought that was Thanksgiving. Of course, one of the most underrated holidays. Yeah. So he took the pledge to give away to give away his wealth. And so it's going to be a pretty big changing of the guard and that's going to have a pretty significant. The thing I'm looking forward to seeing is how many what the attendance will be like, in the shareholder meeting next year. Like, is the, is, is the draw. Buffett or is it its own brand? Yeah, exactly. My expectation is that they will retain a huge amount of people because it's people that have been going every single year for a long time. And it's just like a kind of a meetup for people that have probably, you know, that have spent probably decades, at least some of them decades, visiting and being a part of it. Yeah. I also wonder to what degree can Greg Abel, like, actually pick up the torch? Because there's that interesting stat that like, if you go back 30 years ago, when Buffett was 65, he was, I don't think he was close to the richest man in the world. He, he compounded a ton. He, in his third 30 year run, like from 65 to 95, he had a particularly good run that, that made, that took him from like, pretty rich to one of the richest people in the world. And so it would be very interesting to see like, Greg Abel, what if he really goes on the run for 30 years and is just executing, executing, executing. It's very rare. We just don't see that many business executives or that many, like, people broadly where that's like the, the highlight of the career is 65 to 95. You think it's exciting, do you, do you think that, that he can be fearful when others are greedy? They're kind of acting like it right now, Right? Yeah. Like, I don't think it's quite half a trillion. I think it's more like under, under 400 billion of cash. But they will be getting, they will be getting calls, quite a lot of calls at some point for sure. And we'll see how they play it. Yeah. Before we react to some of the reactions on the timeline, let me tell you. Graphite.dev Code review for the Age of AI Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. So Howard Anglin is taking shots at Warren Buffett. So Warren Buffett's talking about his final letter. And Howard says Buffett has commissioned no plays, no poems, no symphonies, no operas, no ballets, funded no paintings or sculptures that will outlive him, endowed no theaters, orchestras built, no monuments, monasteries. Is this true at all? I feel like he has to have, I feel like Warren Buffett has to have given away enough money to endow at least one theater. Like, how do you not just get hit up by your local theater in Omaha once and say, sure, I'll send a check. Like, I would be shocked if he's never done anything. And also he's committed to giving away half of his wealth. So, like, some of the money is going to wind up with the opera. I imagine just because it's going to go out and get diffused amongst all the different charity efforts, it's not going to all go into one thing. So Howard agrees with him on this. He says he's right that greatness does not come about through accumulated great accumulating great amounts of money, which is what he is known for. But beyond that, it's fortune cookie level advice. It's not wrong, but that's about it. His partner Charlie Munger's contribution to architecture was to fund factory like college dorms in which a of the apartments don't have windows. Was that ucsb? Where is that? Yeah. Have you been to that dorm? Yeah. Did you live there? I'm trying to figure out which. We need to pull a photo of the Charlie Munger dorm. The Charlie Munger dorm at ucsb. It's Munger Hall. Munger dorm, ucsb. It is a wild picture. It's so funny. And it's like, no. So they abandoned. They didn't do it. Made the donation. Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's some reference to it on the campus, but they abandoned the plans to build a windowless dorm. So saying. It's so Soviet. It's extremely Soviet. I don't know why they want to. I thought there were fake windows and they were like TVs essentially, but they would show like outdoor scenes. It should be vertical TV windows that you can just put Sora on and just watch. He's like, you were complaining about the cost of housing. I gave you housing, and now you're complaining it doesn't have windows. Yeah. You give a mouse a cookie with these people. It is so funny. Apparently. It's also just so funny. Why are you so involved in this project? I thought he was a bigger donator to Stanford first and then also why. I feel like if I donate money somewhere, I'm like, okay, it's gone. You enjoy it and it's on you. Like, you are the one that takes care of it. To be in the weeds to the level of, like, deciding where the windows go is a wild move. Like, I thought you had other stuff to do. I would just be. I feel like if I was in this position, I would just be too. He does have other buildings on campus. Okay. With windows as a Monger residence. Okay. That do have windows. So I don't know. I mean, also, like, is it safe to Take the other side of this and just say that, like he was about to create the greatest lock in of all. I mean, what if he was basically saying, like, college students spend very little time in their actual dorms because they're out and about in the world, they're studying library, they're at events, they're really just using the dorm to sleep. Why don't we create common areas that have windows and outdoor areas that then. You go in your pod. Yeah, go in your pod. Almost like a cave. Yeah, it's like a cave. Because ucsb, the, the complaint from a housing standpoint is that, like, nobody has, like nobody shares a room almost all the way through. Everyone shares a room almost all four years. Oh, interesting. So you never move off campus. Yeah. And it's like, it's like one square mile that people really live. And yeah, there's super limited housing. And so I think Munger was coming at this, like, probably, like very pragmatically. And it's like, hey, you get. You're giving up windows, you're going to get your pod, but in exchange you get your own private space. People call it Dormzilla and they cancel it. They call it Dormzilla. I forgot about that. Did we find a picture of Dormzilla? I mean, the actual designs. I saw it for a second. It's so funny. Why can't we do a real examination of the rules that state every bedroom must have a window? This is. Eric Adams floated a similar idea to Munger, calling for stripping legislation that promises each citizen, each city citizen window access this past March. You don't need. You don't need no window where you're sleeping. It should be dark. He said. Wow, that's actually directly in the quote. That's this direct quote. That's from Munger. No, this is from Eric Adams, the New York. New York guy. Okay. I was like, that doesn't sound. That doesn't sound like that. It is a crazy. I put a. I put a picture of the floor plan in the chat team. If you guys pull this up. They should have called it the munger bug den 14,000. The cave. The Munger cave. I don't know. It's pretty. It's pretty funny. It's also, it's also just. I mean, maybe ucsb. When I think of ucsb, I think of like, you know, it's this beautiful, like so just amazing, like near the beach, beautiful sunlight. Like, you definitely don't want to be in a cave. Like, it's like I. I feel like I tore I tore. I kind of get the Soviet cave. The Soviet. Like the Soviet block era. Like, you know, big buildings. Because it's like, you don't want to. Gormzilla is so good. He was like, this is what I need to do. It's just like, also just like, can't you just give, like, a little bit more money and get the windows? Windows aren't that expensive. Right. It's such a wild. Such a wild thing. Anyway. So. So funny. So I don't know. Tyler, did you figure out if Buffett has ever commissioned one play, poem, symphony, opera, ballet, painting, sculpture, theater, choir, orchestra, monument, home, museum, church, monastery, chantry. Just at ucsb, to give him credit, he has the Charles Munger physics residence. Okay. Which is a beautiful, stunning building with windows. With many windows. There we go. And so, yeah, he decided to window Max on this one. Yeah, he's taking a barrel strategy. Some of the buildings have lost some. Of them, but obviously, that's. That's Munger. That's Munger. Yeah. This is Buffett. So, yeah. What did we learn about. Yeah, so I think basically all of his donations. He does do a lot of donations, but they're all. Basically, he just gives stock to people. So he's never, like, saying, I want this museum to be built in this way. He just gives it to a, you know, endowment or institution or some charity, and they, like, do it. And is that because he wants them to, like. Like, kind of try to 10x it again? Yeah, he wants bag holders. Yeah. But, like, I don't think he has very strong opinions on, like, should kids have windows? But can you find an example of. Of when he gave stock to an organization? Because if that organization went and commissioned an opera. I'm putting this in the Truth Zone. And I'm thinking that. I'm thinking that he did, in fact. Oh, the Munger Research center in Pasadena does have many windows. Credit where it's due. Thank you, Taylor. You can't commit to the Munger cave. Then you are really committed to delivery. He's given a lot to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Okay. That's sort of a circular thing. It doesn't make any sense to me. Anyway, let's move on from Warren Buffet. Let me tell you about Julius, the AI data analyst. Connect your data, ask questions in plain English and get insights in seconds. No coding required. We have a clip from Scott Besant on. What is this? Newsweek, abc. Abc. Newsweek, ABC this week. ABC this Week. Okay. I'm learning the $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms. Let's play the clip. It could. The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms in lots of ways, George. It just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the President's agenda, you know, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security deductibility of auto loans. So, you know, those are substantial deductions that are being financed in the tax bill. Tyler, do you feel like this? How is that going to help the day trading community? Yeah, I was like, I'm doing rampant speculation with this $2,000. What am I going to do now? You're actually, you're basically fully. You've already committed the funds, right? Yeah, yeah, I've already placed a ton of parlays. Yes. So like what am I supposed to do? I can't pay my parlay bill with a tax decrease on auto loans. Yeah. You're not looking for passive income. You're looking for massive income, bro. I'm looking for massive income. I'm looking for generative media on a platform for developers. I'm looking for fall, the world's best generative image, video and audio models all in one place. Develop and fine tune models with serverless GPUs, non domain clusters. Doomer says they should put a button on the IRS website that allows you to either receive the $200 stimmy check or if you press the button, you have a 50, 50 chance of getting either $4,000 or zero. I really think a lot of people would press that button. Absolutely. Absolutely. Wild. Certified Bangers X now has an account called Angers and it is an account that highlights the best bangers. They're testing something new. Certified. We want to recognize the very best posts that move the timeline ranked by authentic interactions. If your post is featured, you will get a certified banger badge on your profile for the month. Here are the top five bangers for October. Very cool concept. Very similar to a project that Jordi sort of incubated about 12 months ago, almost a year ago January. It was during the fires. I remember they were ripping. It was called Banger Archive. And Jordi would go and screen a post that had done very, very well and resurface it. And the findings were shocking. Do you want to break down what you learned from that project? Yeah. If you take any post that had gotten like a minimum of 3000 likes and you just screenshotted it and then posted the screenshot and said banger, it would immediately get usually more likes than the original post. It was crazy. There were some posts that had, I screenshotted them, they had like maybe 20,000 likes and then I posted on there to get like 150,000 likes and it's like millions of views. And some of it is like there's, there's a timelessness and there's just like a hot. It's just high quality content is high quality content. There's certain, certain sentences that just are always funny. They're just always funny. Some of them get funnier. Some of them, some of them did fall off. Some of them would flop. Even though they were a banger previously. There were a bunch of interesting findings from the, from the Banger archive, including. At least one person that was, that got mad. They were like, you could have just reposted it. Exactly. And the whole. But the issue is it doesn't work. Doesn'T archive it then. Because if they delete it then it doesn't stay. But they want the, they want the right to delete. So I understand where they're coming from. Bangers on Bobby. Bobby in the Cat says, don't care about a Donald Boat says don't care about a badge. They should come to your house and tattoo it on your body. Yeah. Having a badge for a month is. Yeah, I don't know. It's cool. I think it's interesting because it's also. I mean, so looking at the posts that they have here, they're just kind of random. Yes. So we were debating this. So first off, I think what is interesting about this is that it's not a new functionality in the X app. Like there are plenty of ways to surface popular posts, mainly in the Discover page on the Explore page with the little window glass. So you search there before you search, you see for you, you see trending topics, you see who to follow, business news. There's a whole bunch of things that are going on that are like, it's basically like new ui, new projects. Like they could have created like a separate tab or something like that. They didn't do that. They just created an actual account on X that's native and then they created an organization and they just give you the organization tag. Tag if you post a banger, which is, it's just a very interesting use of the, of like the, the X primitives. Like the code that's already there. Like clearly this did not require software engineering to do, which is just, just interesting way to like create some new content. On Zoom, Zoomer says, did you guys seriously not include this banger zoom? We honestly need to get Zoomer on the Show. I invited him because he's got some truly wild take. He has got to put him into roller coaster format. He's been. He's been on a roller coaster for sure. But yes. So we were debating, is the bangers account going to be teapot tech, Twitter, venture capital related stuff? Will you see naval in there? Will you see Mark Andreessen growing Daniel Roon posts? These posts that go super viral but within tech, or will it be more broad? Will we see something from basketball, Twitter or something from all sorts of different sub communities? And it was just an interesting way to check the pulse because I feel like we are in a little corner of X. But obviously there are folks that use X and they never interact with tech. Twitter, really, they're over in some other. They're talking about basketball or they're talking about football, or they're talking about the Oscars or they're in film Twitter or. There's so many different little sub pockets. Well, the result was that they went broad. A lot of the tech folks think it's slop, but some of these were kind of interesting. The first one that they highlight is from 0x45 and it says, can y' all please tell me the lore behind your profile picture pictures? And it got 285 million views. So people really enjoyed, quote, tweeting this. It got. It got 80 or it got 39. The challenge there is that in itself is not a banger. It just got a lot of reach. Yes. Because people were quoting it. Like, it has zero value as an individual post. Well, it starts a conversation. It creates more content. Like, it is sort of a viral seed of content in this weird way. In a way that there are special words in that post that lead it to generating more content than an average post. If you just posted, like, how'd you pick your profile picture? Not a banger. Yeah, this, the lore. It specifically worked and it obviously did get a lot of attention. But I agree with you that this is not something that, like, sparks thought, I suppose, or like laughter. I don't know. What is the lore, Tyler? What's the lore behind your profile picture? I think it was my Halloween costume. I was dressed up as Julius Caesar last year. That's fine. I thought that's just how you dressed back during your studies. Yeah, that's not exactly like deep lore, but. Okay. What's the lore behind your picture? It's just a picture of you, isn't it? Like a stock exchange or something? Yeah, there's not really deep lore, but I mean, I could tell a whole story about it. How it was at the New York Stock Exchange for the Klarna ipo and it was also the day Charlie Kirk passed away or was assassinated, which was horrible. So there's a lot of lore there. I don't know but it doesn't have the same like deep lore as I don't know what people expect. Who. Jordy, do you have any lore behind. Your Now I'm curious, who had the biggest quote tweet of this? Did anyone have a really, really great view post engagements, quotes? No one? Yeah, I'm not seeing anything. That was like wild. A lot of people did actually engage with this cold healing says their profile picture is their apartment in Peoria had a total ivy covered window that I really liked. One day in mid spring I took all the furniture out of my bedroom to take this photo. Huh. I mean the criticism here, the most common criticism has been, congratulations, you brought Reddit gold to X. It does seem a little bit like gold. It is even gold colored. How a Mathematician Sees the world I saw this going viral. I didn't realize this was this viral. 200 million views. What is this saying? Tyler, did you see this? Do you know why this went so viral? Just because. Is it funny? Specifically? I don't. It's just like they just drew a bunch of lines and like random math equations. Yeah. Like, is this actually how anyone sees? No, it was like everyone was quote tweeting it. Like how a podcaster sees the world. Yeah, I think we were just spinning off of it on different ways of. So it just became a good meme template. Yeah, that makes sense. What was the other one? When your AI girlfriend was on AWS US east one. 60 million views. That really shows you how big the like the tech community is. Or like the AWS like ball knowers. I think this one is closer to what we would describe as like a normal banger. Totally, totally. I mean netcap girl, one of the first posts we reacted to on this show. Great, great poster. Absolutely. A banger. The I'm I'm shocked that 60 million people have the context to enjoy a post about AWS US East 1. But I guess it is a dominant technology that lots of people interact with, so they must know. Or maybe there's enough context to enjoy it. Well, in other news. Yes, what else? There is a JP Morgan AI CapEx report and Max Weinbach says is a great way to put AI ROI into perspective to drive a 10% return on our AI on our modeled AI investments through 2030 would require 650 billion of annual revenue in perpetuity, which equates to $34.72 a month from every current iPhone user. In perspective, Ross hendricks says the AI math ain't math and two ways to fix it. 20x the revenue in the next five years or slash data center capex. I'll take the latter on 100 to 1 odds. So what does a capex pullback look like? There was another post here I think I thought was a solid. Hari Raghavan says annual US spend on software is 400 billion. Professional services is 2.8 trillion. Logistics labor is 1 trillion. Healthcare admin 1 trillion. Education labor, 1 trillion. That's 6 trillion. Globally is probably 3x. Every market is up for grabs, all of them. If you don't get that, you aren't ready for what's coming. 650 billion is a joke. So again, I think understand the concern, but when you put it in terms of every. Basically every iPhone user needs to spend $34 a month. Yeah, well, obviously. Yeah, yeah, no, I know, I know. But it's like if you're using Uber and on your phone and Uber is spending a dollar per user on AI inference just for fraud detection, like that counts, right? It's like, it's like, how much are you spending on cloud computing? Like, cloud computing is a huge market, but you don't think about it as like, oh yeah, everyone spends my household cloud budget. Exactly. It's like, no, there are some customers, some companies that spend billions and billions of dollars on cloud hosting and then you interact with services all over the place. And the broad cloud computing market is just bigger than the AI market right now and will be for a long time. When you look at the AI CapEx numbers, they're all smaller than just the traditional Capex numbers. Like the actual. Just building of a normal data center is still higher than building of an AI data center. And that's because they're actually monetizing cloud computing very effectively. Because everyone needs a database for something or other or a web hosting platform, something like that. Everyone needs turbopuffer search, every byte serverless vector and full text search built from first principles on object storage. Fast, 10x cheaper and extremely scalable. Where else did you want to skip ahead a little bit or you want to go back to the AI capex build out? It is very odd to put it in those terms. I remember someone putting Bitcoin in the same terms to me when Bitcoin was at like 10k or something and he was like, look, the Math is like, in order to have a stable price at the 100k price targets that people are talking, you would have to have, you know, billions and billions flowing in every day and stuff. And it's like. And somehow that just wound up happening. And I remember being very convinced by this by saying, like, yeah, that doesn't make any sense. Like, how could it possibly become an investment vehicle that is constantly seeing so much demand that it can justify such a huge, such a huge price and yet, like, it just did, because it just worked its way into like every single person's pension fund and like every single person's ETFs, like, have a little bit of bitcoin in them. And like. Yeah. And you stayed long even if you thought that that scenario was crazy because you were, you, you were like, well, I should have some exposure if it's at all within the realm of possibility. Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. There were more reasons to like stay long than. Than actually dip out. The most interesting point from the semi analysis segment yesterday was. Did you pick up on when he mentioned the. Tyler's standing up. Tyler's rocking the standing desk today. Give us a review. How is it feeling? You haven't been standing the whole time you've been sitting down. You need a. I like to move around. Yeah, stand up. Sit down. Yeah. Well, we need to get you one of the taller chairs. But there was in the semianalysis interview yesterday, our guest was talking about this idea of putting an H100 index on the stock market. That was something he kind of alluded to.

To shape our future, we change to feel the new IT foreign UAV online. Good morning everyone. You are watching TBPN Tuesday, November 11, 2025. We are live from the TVP and Ultradem. The temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. Ramp.com Time is money save both easy use, corporate cards, bill pay, accounting a whole lot more all in one place. That is right. Okay, more importantly than ramp, today's Veterans Day. It is, it is a holiday. Yes, it is an important holiday. Yes. And we would like to say thank you to everyone that has served. Of course. Yes. Thank you to everyone who served. Thank you. Missed missed opportunity to get the Secretary General back on the show. Yes, yes. I'm sure there are big events happening in D.C. and all over the armed forces community. We inadvertently did some defense tech day yesterday with Neros and Anduril. That was fun. Taking a little tour of both of those companies. And defense tech seems to be just cooking like just on a steady state. Yes, yeah, steady state. And I don't know, just much less muscle, much less froth, much less, you know, calls for. Is this the top of defense tech? It's more just like possible. We already passed the top of defense tech. Yeah. You know, well, I mean there had been some rounds maybe earlier this year that felt a little bit frothy. Oh, okay. But like the near nearest round yesterday, like feels like they're probably the best or one of the best teams. Let's focus on this problem. DJI can make tens of millions of drones a year. We cannot somebody, ideally multiple companies will work on that problem. So it feels like it's just a fair bet in the context of our national security. Totally. Yeah. And yeah, I mean we certainly haven't seen. There's just like way fewer top signals in defense tech right now. It feels like like there's no like, oh, crazy SPAC going out. That's like frothy memes, you know, around this stuff. It's, it's just a lot. It's. I mean it's still like a long way to deliver all the value there and really scale those companies. But overall I think like a lot of support. You know, I was kind of joking with Soren, like what's it like working in like a non controversial industry? And you were like doing a double take. But it is like a less controversial industry in my opinion than AI right now in terms of, than chatbots. Just in terms of like in tech. AI is controversial because of the adult content and the IP rights and the leverage and the debt and all that stuff. And then outside of tech, you have energy prices and politicization. Is the AI woke or is it too right wing or left wing? Is it going to be used to manipulate the election? I think if you actually went like just random person on the street, like you know, poll of popularity, like Palmer Luckey, who's for a long time been like a contrarian, a controversial figure. Right. It feels like he would pull more popular than Sam Altman or an AI lab director, AI Lab CEO. Even though he's like building weapons. Like the most controversial thing part of. It is like, how hard can you crush a Joe Rogan appearance? He did do well. Yeah, yeah. So maybe that's it. But just in general, it feels like the idea of like the American populace is not frustrated directly over weapons production right now a little bit, but not as much as people as it used to be years ago. The idea of like working with the military is much less of a, of a cornerstone issue, a hot debate than it was six years ago, eight years ago. And the conversation has moved on to job displacement, to energy production, to, you know, Internet addiction, that type of stuff. Anyway, to restream iO1 livestream, 30 plus destinations, multi stream, reach your audience wherever they are. I was noticing a pattern that everyone has 10 year AGI timelines right now. And it started, we started when Sam Altman put out that post. Like superintelligence is just a few thousand days away. And at the time it was kind of odd because when he wrote that post last year, everyone was like, AGI is one year away. AGI is two years away. It was like fast takeoff time. Everyone was very excited. And then he came out and was like, it's a few thousand days away. And if you do the numbers, I think Tyler has the clock. How long is a few thousand days? 3650 days. How many years is that? 10 years? 10? It's a decade. Puts us squarely in 2035. Right. And so Sam came out and you know, and he was kind of in his blog post of the superintelligence age, talking about, you know, maybe we're a decade away. Then Andrej Karpathy goes on. Dora Kesh, just a couple months ago, a couple weeks ago, says AGI is a decade away. And then Dwarkesh posts this probability density of when AGI will be achieved. There's a chance that America does it. There's a chance that China does it. And the median, the 50th percentile, was exactly 2035, exactly 2035, could have been 2030, could have been 2040, could have been 2050, but it was 2035. Then you know that chart, that like very schizo chart that says periods when to make money. Have you seen this around on X? And it's like it was created like I guess about 100 years ago. People reference it anytime. It actually aligns to events because it basically has years in which panics have occurred, years of good times, high prices and time to sell stocks and years of hard times, low prices and a good time to buy stocks. And so it's basically like astrology for stock picking. And what is it saying right now? 2035 is a year they're predicting is when a panic will occur. Oh, interesting. Well that certainly aligns with all these AGI timelines. There you go. The other one that we mentioned on the show yesterday was George Hotz, the founder of comma and generally regarded as like one of the sharpest hackers, computer scientists, AI developers. He was looking at the Tesla FSD data and projected that if the rate of improvement continues, you basically see a doubling in capability every year. You double it out the, if you're, if the benchmark is how many interventions happen per thousand vehicle miles traveled and you compare that to how many crashes happen when a human's at the wheel. He says Tesla's about eight years away, which puts him like squarely in the 2035 camp. 2033 I guess in his case. And then I was looking at meter and this one we'll have to debate a lot more. But meter has been tracking AI's ability to complete long tasks. So they've, so they've, they've, and it's growing exponentially. It used to be like six seconds, now it's like two hours. And you know, when you talk to anyone who's in the AI field, they'll tell you that the agents are getting more and more capable of handling longer, longer time horizon tasks. The question is I feel like humans don't have a time horizon. I feel like humans, they're just born and the goal is like survive, be fruitful, multiply, right? Yeah. And so I feel like if you're, if you're tracking the meter data, you need to get out to like 30 years, like a full career. Right. Like the prompt needs to be like go make money. And then it just goes and becomes a lawyer and you know, lives its full life and retires after, after 35 year run. And of course when you track out the doublings, one in 2035, the meter is projecting based on that log curve, that or that log, that log graph, that I will be able to have a time horizon in the, in the decades. And so you would, you would have it some, something similar to what a human would have. And so my, my read on the meter data is that, you know, AGI 20, 35, again, it's maybe the messiest, the least like definitive. And all of these predictions have different methodologies. Some of them are extremely quality, quantitative. A lot of some of them I'm like reading, really reading into some other people are just saying like, it's a decade away specific. But what's interesting is that it just feels like 10 years is this consensus right now. And there's much less diversity of opinion. There aren't that many people saying two years anymore. There aren't that many people saying 50 years anymore. Everyone's kind of saying 10 years. And I just wonder, let's put aside, let's try and accurately predict when this thing happens and let's just analyze it from a psychological perspective. And what does it mean when the tech community all has a consensus of something that's a decade. Like a decade away could just be what people say when they don't know. Like, if you ask me when flying cars are gonna happen, I'm gonna say a decade. If you're gonna say when quantum computing, oh, that'll be a decade. Oh, Mars, yeah, that's a decade. It's easy. It's like, it's optimistic. It's way. When I say a decade, I'm not saying it's not gonna happen, but I'm saying, like, you're not gonna be able to hold me to my bad take because you're not gonna be in one year and be like, he was wrong. Right? Yeah. It is funny, the quote. Most people overestimate what they can accomplish in one year, underestimate what they do what they can do in 10 years. And in this situation we're just like, yeah, we're estimating that we can just achieve AGI in 10 years. Somewhat a year is actually. So it's effectively like inverted. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. And so. But the other weird thing that I was grappling with was like, when I personally feel like about AGI, I'm convinced by these. I feel like AGI is 10 years away and I don't feel like I'm coping or doing some sort of mental logic jumps or something. It's just like if you actually forced me to put a prediction down, I probably would say About a decade. And I feel like I've been around there, been on the Kurzweil timelines, maybe, maybe I'm 2045, more like Kurzweil, but still like a decade, two decades. I feel like it's real. I feel like I do believe it's gonna happen. I don't feel like I'm like AGI never. I'm not in that camp. And so then I go to, well, how should I actually be changing my behavior if something big is coming in a decade? It feels like you should actually should not just be acting normally, but it feels like there's some sort of preference falsification going on. Everyone's saying a decade. How many people are actually acting like it's a dec. Like, what should you be doing in the intervening years if it's a decade away? Like, are you just supposed to like build technologies that are fun little dopamine rewards? Are you trying to like accumulate as much capital as possible before. I think. Well, yeah, so, so when, I mean, who plans around 10 years at all? Right. People tend to go for things that they want today. Yeah. In some ways. Right. So if somebody like, let's say they're in their 20s. Yeah. They're like, I want to own a home. Yeah. By the time, by 2035, they want that thing today. And so they, they. But they might understand. Okay. It's going to take some time to get there. Yeah. But actually making real changes in your life for this like, impending scenario, that's hard to predict entirely. It's very, very difficult. And I don't know that, I don't know that any. You know, it was maybe more popular earlier this year to joke about, you know, the golden retriever maxing. Right. Oh, yeah. We would talk about this. Right. But it feels like that dialogue has kind of changed. How so? Part of it goes back to the other, like, enduring meme. You know, you have one year to escape the permanent underclass. And then everyone woke up and like a few months ago and said, okay, maybe we actually have like longer, at. Least a decade now. Everyone's still just focused on escape. Whatever that means. Whatever their, whatever their number is. Yeah, it's a, it's an odd time. I'm going to tell you about Privy and then we'll get Tyler's reaction. Wallet infrastructure for every bank. Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rails, securely spin up white label wallets, sign transactions, integrate on chain infrastructure all through one simple API. Tyler, what do you think about my take? What do you think what do you agree with? What do you disagree with? I think it's definitely interesting that people seem to kind of align around this 10 year thing. I think there's also some sort of bias. Right. If you think AI is coming in three years, you're probably not just going to be like writing blogs like you're, maybe you're going to start a macro hedge fund. Maybe you're going to go work at one of the labs to like really try to influence how it's going to happen. If it's going to happen super quick. Yeah. So I think there's some sense of that. And if you really don't believe AGI is coming at all, then like you're also probably not going to be writing blogs about AGI. You're just going to be like doing your normal job or whatever. So I think there's some like confirmation bias there. Ten years, exactly the time of a venture capital fund life cycle coincidence. Tyler's probably the most AGI pilled person on the team and so it's interesting that you're. You kind of day to day act like everyone else on the team. Yeah, yeah. What's making me question your belief you've done? What's your biggest revealed preference? Hmm, that's hard to say. Maybe just hanging out on the show. Yeah, just hanging out. Podcasting instead of going to university is just like, yeah, nothing matters. I guess. I mean there's a little bit of that. Yeah, maybe AGI. It's just hard because like in the intervening years there's clearly like just incredibly like high leverage work to be done. It's so easy to pull forward. Like, okay, well the robots are going to be able to do X, so maybe you shouldn't spend the next 10 years doing X. But if in fact X is very valuable, then the next 10 years you can capture a ton of value as you leverage more and more technology right up into the point where you don't need to do it anymore because it's fully automated. Yeah, I think there's some sense of like, at least for me, it's like, okay, maybe I would be working at. Maybe I would have started some rapper company or something like that. But I'm more bullish on AI than I think most people are to where I think that stuff is generally not super kind of long term oriented. So maybe I think some sort of that kind of. Do you think, do you think we'll be podcasting in 2045? Yes, but I say yes because I think the podcast is to live. I agree I think it might be around way past AGI. I mean, I don't. I don't know. I think everybody, everybody wants to believe that. Like, I don't, but I don't know. I have yet to see. I don't know that mining is going to be around forever. I don't think people mine for the love of the game. I don't think people go in the coal mine and mine and they would do it if they didn't get paid. But I think people do play chess. Children yearn for the mine, and I. Think people podcast for fun. Children yearn for the mine. I don't think they actually realized. Game of Minecraft. Yeah, I mean Minecraft for sure. Playing games for sure. That's actually sort of where my take. Yeah, but imagine you have an army of robots and you just get to use a computer to control them to mine for minerals. That sounds like it could be pretty fun and fulfilling. Maybe. Maybe. I don't know. That sounds like a loophole. I was talking about actually swinging an axe in a mine shaft. Yes. Maybe there will one day be an AI agent for mining. We've actually talked to some folks who are doing AI for mining. If you're mining value in your code base, get on Cognition, the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. Yeah. Where I landed at the end of this was talking about this clip of Alex Wang that's sort of going viral. People are dunking on it because he recommends that kids learn to vibe code. And I just disagree with the haters. Like, I think the haters are wrong on this one. And I was thinking about, like, well, I have a kid, like, would I teach him to vibe code? And I was playing with Legos last night. I was assembling Legos and from what I've done vibe coding and what I've done, Legos, I'm like, this is going to be very fun and this is going to be an activity that we do together. And I'm super. I'm like super in agreement that I think learning to vibe code is good. What do you think, Tom? I think like, the point of view of like the people hating were that like, oh, your 13 year old should be like making B2B sass. Which is like, not. That's different than saying they should be vibe coding because vibe coding is just like, it's like basically playing a video game or it's like Minecraft mod or something. That's like, seems totally fine. Yeah. Some of the criticism Some of the criticism was like, you should just be doing really hard things. Okay. But then you have to ask is like, okay, should 13 year olds like only be hand coding? Like if you want to get them into maybe making, doing engineering work, is it, should they be doing it with a pen and like what is the alternative? Or should they just be just doing math problems or studying things? I had some sort of, I had some sort of advanced Lego thing, robotics thing that you could actually write software for and kind of make it drive in circles or you could program it to drive in a figure eight. Yeah, that was really fun. As a kid When I was 13, I was working on little iPhone apps. Yeah. And knowing the vibe coding tools that are available today, I would have been able to make way more progress. I would have had a lot more fun. Yeah, it would have been like having an expert like software engineer sitting next to me. Kind of like pair programming, right? Yeah. And so I just, yeah, I'm on your side. I think, I think people generally just don't like Alex because he's been wildly successful and people want to try to. He's basically the youngest, most successful person in the world, which invites a lot of criticism. Yeah. And also it's tough when you build a business that it's not like. I think when Evan Spiegel blew up with Snapchat, he was very much loved because people were like, I like Snapchat. I got a date on Snapchat. I met my girlfriend. Yeah, I use it all the time. Or I use it with my friends or my boys or whatever or like my, my group chats on Snapchat. So it's very easy to be like, yeah, he's rich, but I like the thing he made. Whereas with Alex Wang, he's like, yeah, he's rich. And I have no idea what the thing he, I don't interact with it at all. And so it's a lot harder. But yeah, I don't know, I feel like, I feel like a generic call to action to young people, to vibe code. To be entrepreneurial is good. I mean, I, I, I, you know, discovered entrepreneurship in some ways through Tim Ferriss, who had a similar sort of like the four hour work week was not some like deep understanding of how business and technology works. It was more just like, hey, you could set up a business and like it could be a really interesting life. And it's very different than like becoming a lawyer or becoming a doctor. Like when you're just like a blank slate kid, you're kind of offered A menu of options which is like, do you want to become a fireman, doctor, policeman, like construction work, construction worker and businessman. And yeah, you hear businessman, but you don't really know what that means. This man. And it's very different to be like, accountant. A businessman is an investment banker or a consultant. If you stay on the track and you're just like, I only. I always ask for permission. Right. I always go into the next thing. I always have a boss. Entrepreneurship is this like, sort of vague thing that's like hidden and it's nice when it's served up. Yeah. There's so many different flavors of it. Yeah. Yeah. So I enjoy a little serving of entrepreneurial insight. What do you think, Tyler? Fun fact. So in fifth grade in the yearbook, they asked like, what you want it to be. I put investor. Investor in fifth grade? Yeah. I didn't even really know what that meant. Are you sure you didn't put capital allocator you put in. I think that's what I meant. Yeah. I mean, in fifth grade they had a. It was like, bring in a mobile. Create a mobile for someone that you respect. And everyone in the class brought in like a picture of their dad and I brought in a picture of Bill Gates because I was like, it made the computer like, the computer's awesome. And everyone was like, what are you doing, dude? Stop deifying business people. I was like, I will never stop deifying business people. It's great. Ever since the fifth grade, I knew I wanted to get into asset management. Love it. I love it. Well, speaking of asset management, Masayoshi Sohn is back in the news. SoftBank's big profits jump this quarter came from OpenAI's increased valuation that SoftBank lifted higher by buying shares from employees and selling them at a higher price. And so there is question about is this too circular? It's unclear if SoftBank was really the price setter on this deal, but just Dario is certainly just Dario saying SoftBank. Books a capital gain on an investment it hasn't paid for and recorded in its assets yet. So I guess the narrative here is. Booked gains on OpenAI shares by designating Vision Fund 2 to underwrite the second investment tranche at 500 billion value that SoftBank Group cannot pay and created a forward derivative contract worth 8 billion. All gains out of thin air. How is this legal? I don't know. This doesn't seem that crazy. There's a scenario where you would do this if you were a company that invested in a fund. Yes. And it's called maybe Some capital, but not all of it yet. And so you can show that there's a gain even though you haven't paid actually paid in the capital yet. Yes, but I think the way in which Softbank is doing doesn't seem illegal, but I think it's non traditional. Sophie over on X says Softbank is selling its Nvidia stake to fund companies whose main expense is buying from Nvidia. But don't VC firms run into this all the time? And there's always a question about how they mark to market and if you're marking to market an asset that you invest twice and that's why a lot of venture firms don't want to do it's a little bit iffy to lead back to back rounds because at a certain point your LPs are going to start having questions. But it does happen and it's not the end of the world and as long as you get other buyers. Didn't Founders fund do ramp back to back or something like that, Right? Yeah, but then there was like a secondary transaction that came in pretty quickly and then eventually another firm came in and so once the other firm comes in that mark gets a lot stronger and then ramps actually like mark themselves to market multiple times. I mean, yeah, this is, I don't know the more important. I tried to slide off the camera to sneeze and the PTZ caught me. The more important thing here is that this is not the first time Masa has exited Nvidia. He exited in 2019 before the run up. He was then Nvidia's largest shareholder and he had a 5%, 5% stake in the company that he sold for 3.6 billion and it would now be worth over 200 billion. So this, this was ultimately one of the biggest. How much did he wind up investing? Totally. Because he must have made money overall. How much has. I don't know. I don't know exactly when he actually bought back in. Yeah, because if this was all from that initial slug, I feel like this 5 billion could be on a basis of like 500 mil or something. It's still relatively small for the size of SoftBank. But while that's cooking, let me tell you about Figma. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. Let's see. SoftBank sells his entire stake in Nvidia for 5.83 billion. Quantian says no, they expect one of us in the wreckage. Brother, have we started the fire. Why? I don't understand how this links to what's happening here? Why? Who's in the fire? Like, how is this? How is this? I don't understand this meme. Do you understand this? I just like the line, they expect one of us in the wreckage, brother. Yeah, it's funny because it's from the Dark Knight Rises. Right, but, but like, selling Nvidia. Selling your stake in Nvidia. Like, are people mad about this because they think Nvidia is going to rip further, or do you. Selling your stake in Nvidia. Yeah. To buy. To actually buy shares in a company that you've already marked a. You're, you're showing a gain on in the last quarter. Yeah. So basically, SoftBank is booking profits. Sure. OpenAI profits. They are then selling Nvidia shares to fund the original investment of which they've already booked the profits on. And the number one driving force behind Nvidia's growth is OpenAI. Yeah. Is that true? I mean, how big. How big is OpenAI as a customer of Nvidia? I mean, yeah, it's probably the biggest, but I mean, the rest of the hyperscalers still. Still buying a ton of Nvidia, right? I don't know. I mean, yeah, I would say, like, indirectly they're a big customer, but like, obviously they're not. It's not like they're funding the data centers. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, so James Thorne says today we will get the SoftBank completely sold out of Nvidia. Fear from bears on mainstream media and Wall Street. Does anyone do objective research anymore? SoftBank initially bought its Nvidia stake through the Vision Fund 2017, then exited completely in January 19th. They missed it. They lost patience. Not the first time. And so, yeah, when did they buy this latest slug? That's the question. SoftBank sold 32 million shares of Nvidia in October. Also sold part of its stake in T Mobile for 9 billion. It's not the first time they've cashed out of the chip maker. That's a funny way to put it. Despite the sale, SoftBank remains tied to Nvidia through its other ventures. Yeah, that makes sense. Anyway, let me tell you about Vanta. Automate compliance, manage risk, improve trust with AI. Vanta helps you get compliant fast. And they don't stop there. Our AI and automation powers everything from evidence collection to continuous monitoring and security reviews and vendor risk. Warren Buffett says he's going quiet. The world's most famous investor warns against corporate greed as he prepares to hand over the reins of Berkshire Hathaway. There are a bunch of interesting posts. But there's also a story in the Financial Times. I don't think it hit the I don't think it hit the paper edition yet, but we can read the money. The paper edition always lagging. It lags so Warren Buffett has told Berkshire Hathaway shareholders that he is going quiet, quote unquote, as the world's most famous investor draws a line under a career that has shaped corporate American Wall street over the past six decades. As the British would say, I'm going quiet, sort of, buffett wrote in a letter published Monday. The 95 year old will step back from day to day responsibilities at Berkshire at the end of this year when he retires from his role as chief executive. Craig Abel, of course, is coming in. Investors have long seen Buffett, often called the Oracle of Omaha, as a corporate folk hero, interspersing guidance on his portfolio company's performance with life and business advice, his frank manner with shareholders, both his annual letters and his marathon question and answer sessions during the annual meetings in Omaha has been a hallmark of his tenure. Buffett's letter to shareholders on Monday took the same tone, with warnings about corporate greed interlaced with calls for kindness. He noted, for instance, that requirements for executive compensation disclosures backfired as business chiefs engaged in a race to earn more than rivals. What often bothers very wealthy CEOs they are human, after all, is that other CEOs are getting even richer, Buffett said. Envy and greed walk hand in hand. Interesting. Buffett added that Berkshire should try to avoid future CEOs who are looking to retire at 65 or who want to become look at me rich or initiate a dynasty. Look at me rich. What an interesting turn of phrase. Yeah, it's very notable that Buffett has never been photographed doing a money spread wearing Balenciaga Rick Owens. Does he have any chrome hearts? Probably no chrome hearts. He's never been photographed with chrome hearts. With chrome hearts on it is cool. He's going to continue to do his thanks. Thanks. A letter every Thanksgiving. I love that. I thought that was Thanksgiving. Of course, one of the most underrated holidays. Yeah. So he took the pledge to give away to give away his wealth. And so it's going to be a pretty big changing of the guard and that's going to have a pretty significant. The thing I'm looking forward to seeing is how many what the attendance will be like in the shareholder meeting next year. Like is the is the draw Buffett. Or is it its own brand? Yeah, exactly. My expectation is that they will retain a Huge amount of people. Because it's people that have been going every single year for a long time. It's just like a kind of a meetup for people that have probably, you know, that have spent probably decades, at least some of them decades, visiting and being a part of it. Yeah. I also wonder, like, to what degree can Greg Abel, like, actually pick up the torch? Because there's that interesting stat that like, if you go back 30 years ago, when Buffett was 65, he was, I don't think he was close to the richest man in the world. He, he compounded a ton in his third 30 year run, like from 65 to 95, he had a particularly good run that, that made, that took him from like, pretty rich to one of the richest people in the world. And so it would be very interesting to see, like, Greg Abel, what if he really goes on the run for 30 years and is just executing, executing, executing. It's very rare. We just don't see that many business executives or that many people broadly where that's like the highlight of the career is 65 to 95. You think it's exciting? Do you think that, that he can be fearful when others are greedy? They're kind of acting like it right now. Right? Yeah. I don't think it's quite half a trillion. I think it's more like under 400 billion of cash. But. They will be getting calls, quite a lot of calls at some point for sure. And we'll see how they play it. Yeah. Before we react to some of the reactions on the timeline, let me tell you about graphite.dev, code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. So Howard Anglin is taking shots at Warren Buffett. So Warren Buffett's talking about his final letter. And Howard says Buffett has commissioned no plays, no poems, no symphonies, no operas, no ballets, funded no paintings or sculptures that will outlive him, endowed no theaters, choirs, orchestras, built no monuments, monasteries. Is this true at all? I feel like he has to have. I feel like Warren Buffett has to have given away enough money to endow at least one theater. How do you not just get hit up by your local theater in Omaha once and say, sure, I'll send a check. I would be shocked if he's never done anything. And also he's committed to giving away half of his wealth. So some of the money is gonna wind up with the opera, I imagine, just because it's gonna go out and get Diffused amongst all the different charity efforts. It's not gonna all go into one thing. So Howard agrees with him on this. He says he's right, that greatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, which is what he is known for. But beyond that, it's fortune cookie level advice. It's not wrong, but that's about it. His partner Charlie Munger's contribution to architecture was to fund factory like college dorms in which a majority of the apartments don't have windows. Was that ucsb? Where is that? Yeah. Have you been to that dorm? Yeah. Did you live there? I'm trying to figure out which. We need to pull up a photo of the Charlie Munger dorm. The Charlie Munger dorm at ucsb. It's Munger Hall. Munger dorm, ucsb. It is a wild picture. It's so funny. And it's like. So they abandoned. They. Oh, they didn't do it. They made the donation. Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's some reference to it on the campus, but they abandoned the plans to build a windowless dorm. So sick. It's so Soviet. It's extremely Soviet. I don't know why they wanted. I thought there were fake windows and they were like TVs essentially, but they would show, like, outdoor scenes. It should be vertical TV windows that you can just put Sora on and just watch AI. He's like, you were complaining about the cost of housing. I gave you housing, and now you're complaining it doesn't have windows. Yeah. You'd give a mouse a cookie with these people. It is so funny. Apparently. It's also just so funny. Why are you so involved in this project? I thought he was a bigger donator to Stanford first. And then also why. I feel like if I donate money somewhere, I'm like, okay, it's gone. You enjoy it, and it's on you. You are the one that takes care of it. To be in the weeds to the level of, like, deciding where the windows go is a wild move. Like, I thought you had other stuff to do. I would just be. I feel like if I was in this position, I would just be, too. So he does have other buildings on campus. Okay. With windows among residents that do have windows. So I don't know. I mean, also, like, is it safe to take the other side of this and just say that, like, he was about to create the greatest locket of all? I mean, what if he was basically saying, like, college students spend very little time in their actual dorms because they're out and about in the world. They're studying the library, they're at events. They're really just using the dorm to sleep. Why don't we create common areas that have windows and outdoor areas? But then you go in your pod. Yeah, go in your pod. Almost like a cave. Yeah, it's like a cave. Because ucsb, the complaint from a housing standpoint is that, like, nobody has, like, nobody almost all the way through. Everyone shares a room almost all four years. Oh, interesting. So you never move off campus. Yeah. And it's like one square mile that people really live. And yeah, there's super limited housing. And so I think Munger was coming at this, like, probably, like very pragmatically. And it's like, hey, you get. You're giving up windows, you're gonna get your pod, but in exchange, you get your own private space. People call it Dormzilla and they cancel this. They call it Dormzilla. I forgot about that. Do we find a picture of Dormzilla? I mean, the actual designs. I saw it for a second. It's so funny. Why can't we do a real examination of the rules that state every bedroom must have a window? This is. Eric Adams floated a similar idea to Munger, calling for stripping legislation that promises each citizen, each city citizen window access this past March. You don't need no window where you're sleeping. It should be dark, he said. Wow, that's actually directly in the quote. That's a direct quote. That's from Munger. This. No, this is from Eric Adams, the New York, New York. Okay. I was like, that doesn't sound like that. I put it. I put a picture of the floor plan in the chat team. If you guys pull this up, they should have called it the munger bug den 14,000. The cave. The Munger cave. I don't know. It's pretty funny. It's also just. I mean, maybe ucsb. When I think of ucsb, I think of like, you know, it's this beautiful, like, so just amazing, like, near the beach, beautiful sunlight. Like, you definitely don't want to be in a cave. It's like, I feel like I kind of get the Soviet cave, like the Soviet bloc era, big buildings. Because it's like, you don't want to. Gormzilla is so good. I love it. He was like, this is what I need to do. It's just like, also just like, can't you just give, like, a little bit more money and get the windows? Windows aren't that expensive, right? It's such a Wild. Such a wild thing. Anyway, so, so funny. So, I don't know, Tyler, did you figure out if Buffett has ever commissioned one play, Poem, symphony, opera, ballet, painting, sculpture, theater, choir, orchestra, monument, home, museum, church, monastery, chantry. So just at ucsb, to give him credit, he has the Charles Munger Physics residence, which is a beautiful, stunning building with windows. With many windows. There we go. And so, yeah, he decided to window Max on this one. Yeah, he's taking a barbell strategy. Some of the buildings have lost some of them. But obviously. That's Munger. That's Munger. Yeah. This is Buffett. So. Yeah. What did we learn about Buffett? Yeah, so I think basically all of his donations. He does do a lot of donations, but they're all. Basically, he just gives stock to people. So he's never, like, saying, I want this museum to be built in this way or anything. He just gives it to a endowment or institution or some charity, and they do it. And is that because he wants them to try to 10x it again? Yeah, he wants bag holders. Yeah. But I don't think he has very strong opinions on should kids have windows. But can you find an example of when he gave stock to an organization? Because if that organization went and commissioned an opera, I'm putting this in the Truth Zone. And I'm thinking that he did, in fact. Oh, the Munger Research center in Pasadena does have many windows. Credit where it's due. Thank you, Taylor. You can't commit to the Munger cave. Then you are really committed to delivery. He's given a lot to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Okay, that's kind of sort of a circular thing. It doesn't make any sense to me. Anyway, let's move on from Warren Buffett. Let me tell you about Julius, the AI data analyst. Connect your data, ask questions in plain English and get insights in seconds. No coding required. We have a clip from Scott Bessant on. What is this? Newsweek, ABC. ABC. Newsweek, ABC this Week. ABC this Week. Okay, I'm learning the $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms. Let's play the clip. The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms in lots of ways, George. You know, it could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the President's agenda. You know, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility of auto loans. So, you know, those are substantial deductions that are being financed in the tax bill. Tyler, do you feel like this? How. How is that going to help the day trading community. Yeah, I was doing rampant speculation with this $2,000. What am I going to do now? You're actually. You're basically fully. You've already committed the funds, right? Yeah, yeah, I've already placed a ton of parlays. Yes. So like what am I supposed to do? I can't pay my parlay bill with a tax decrease on auto loans. Yeah, you're not looking for passive income, you're looking for massive income, bro. I'm looking for massive income. I'm looking for generative media on a platform for developers. I'm looking for fall, the world's best generative image, video and audio models all in one place. Develop and fine tune models with serverless GPUs and on demand clusters. Doomer says they should put a button on the IRS website that allows you to either receive the $200 stimmy check or if you press the button, you have a 50, 50 chance of getting either $4,000 or zero. I really think a lot of people would press that button. Absolutely. Absolutely. Wild. Certified Bangers X now has an account called Bangers and it is an account that highlights the best bangers. They're testing something new. Certified Bangers. We want to recognize the very best posts that move the timeline, ranked by authentic interactions. If your post is featured, you will get a certified Banger badge on your profile for the month. Here are the top bangers for October. Very cool concept. Very similar to a project that Jordi sort of incubated about 12 months ago, almost a year ago January. It was during the fires. I remember, I remember they were ripping. It was called Banger Archive. And Jordi would go and screenshot a post that had done very, very well and resurface it. And the findings were shocking. Do you want to break down what you learned from that project? Yeah. If you take any post that had gotten like a minimum of 3000 likes and you just screenshotted it and then posted the screenshot and said Banger, it would immediately get usually more likes than the original post. It was crazy. There were some posts that had. I screenshotted them. They had like maybe 20,000 likes and then I posted on there to get like 150,000. Yes. Yeah, it's like millions of views and. Some of it is like there's a timelessness and there's just like a hot. It's just high quality content is high quality content. There's certain, certain sentences that just are always funny. They're just always funny. Some of them get funnier. Some of them did fall off. Some of them would flop. Even though they were a banger. Previously, there were a bunch of interesting findings from the Banger archive project, including. At least one person that got mad. Very like you could have just reposted it. Exactly. But the issue is it doesn't work. It doesn't archive it then. Because if they delete it, then it doesn't stay. But they want the. They want the right to delete. So I understand where they're coming from. Bangers on Bobby in the chat says, don't care about Donald Boat says don't care about a badge. They should come to your house and tattoo it on your body. Yeah. Having a badge for a month is. Yeah, I don't know. It's cool. I think it's interesting because it's also. I mean, so looking at the posts that they have here, they're just kind of random. Yes. So we were debating this. So first off, I think what is interesting about this is that it's not a new functionality in the X app. Like, there are plenty of ways to surface popular posts, mainly in the Discover page, on the Explore page with the little window glass. So you search there before you search, you see for you, you see trending topics, you see who to follow, business news. There's a whole bunch of things that are going on that are like. It's basically like new ui, new projects. Like they could have created like a separate tab or something like that. They didn't do that. They just create an actual account on X that's native and then they created an organization and they just give you the organization tag if you post a banger, which is. It's just a very interesting use of the X primitives, like the code that's already there. Clearly this did not require software engineering to do, which is just an interesting way to create some new content. On Zoomer says. Did you guys seriously not include this banger? We honestly need to get Zoomer on the show. I invited him because he's got some truly wild take. He's got to put him into audio format. He's been rolling. He's been on a roller coaster for sure. But yes. So we were debating, is the Bangers account going to be teapot tech, Twitter venture capital related stuff? Will you see naval in there? Will you see Marquis Andreessen growing Daniel Rune posts these posts that go super viral but within tech or will it be more broad? Will we see something from basketball, Twitter or something from all sorts of different sub communities? And it was just an Interesting way to check the pulse, because I feel like we are in a little corner of X. But obviously there are folks that use X and they never interact with tech Twitter, really, They're over in some other. They're talking about basketball or they're talking about football, or they're talking about the Oscars, or they're in film Twitter, or There's so many different little sub pockets. Well, the result was that they went broad. A lot of the tech folks think it's slop, but some of these were kind of interesting. The first one that they Highlight is from 0x45, and it says, can y' all please tell me the lore behind your profile picture Pictures. And it got 285 million views. So people really enjoyed, quote, tweeting this. It got 39%. The challenge there is that in itself is not a banger. It just got a lot of reach. Yes. Because people were quoting it. It has zero value as an individual post. Well, it starts a conversation. It creates more content. It is sort of a viral seed of content in this weird way. In a way that there are special words in that post that lead it to generating more content than an average post. If you just posted like, how'd you pick your profile picture? Not a banger. The lore, it specifically worked and it obviously did get a lot of attention. But I agree with you that this is not something that sparks thought, I suppose, or laughter. I don't know. What is the lore, Tyler? What's the lore behind your profile picture? I think it was my Halloween costume. I was dressed up as Julius Caesar last year. That's fine. I thought that's just how you dressed back during your studies. Yeah, that's not exactly, like, deep lore, but. Okay. What's the lore behind your picture? It's just a picture of you, isn't it? Like a stock exchange or something? Yeah. Mocked. There's not really deep lore, but, I mean, I could tell a whole story about it. How it was at the New York Stock Exchange for the Klarna ipo. And it was also the day Charlie Kirk passed away or was assassinated, which was horrible. So there's a lot of lore there. I don't know. But it doesn't have the same, like, deep lore as I don't know what people expect. Do you have any lore behind your. Now, I'm curious, who had the biggest quote tweet of this? Did anyone have a really, really great view? Post engagements, quotes? No one? Yeah, I'm not seeing anything. That was, like, wild. A lot of people did actually engage with this cold healing. Says their profile picture is their apartment in Peoria had a total ivy covered window that I really liked. One day in mid spring I took all the furniture out of my bedroom to take this photo. Huh. I mean the criticism here, the most common criticism has been, congratulations, you brought Reddit gold to X. It does seem a little bit like gold. It is even gold colored. How a mathematician sees the world. I saw this going viral. I didn't realize this was this viral. 200 million views. What is the. What is this saying? Tyler, did you see this? Do you know why this went so viral? Just because it's. Is it funny specifically? I don't. It's just like they just drew a bunch of lines and like random math equations. Yeah. Like is this actually how anyone sees. No, it was like everyone was quote tweeting it. Like how a podcaster sees the world. Yeah, I think people were just spinning off of it on different ways of. So it just became a good meme template. Yeah, that makes sense. What was the other 1 when your AI girlfriend was on AWS US East 1? 60 million views. That really shows you how big the tech community is. Or like the AWS ball knowers. I think this one is closer to what we would describe as like a normal banger. Totally, totally. I mean Netcap girl, one of the first posts we reacted to on this show. Great, great poster. Absolutely a banger. I'm shocked that 60 million people have the context to enjoy a post about AWS US East 1, but I guess it is a dominant technology that lots of people inter with, so they must know. Or maybe there's enough context to enjoy it. Well, in other news. Yes, what else? There is a JP Morgan AI CapEx report and there, Max Weinbach says is a great way to put AI ROI into perspective. To drive a 10% return on our AI on our modeled AI investments through 202030 would require 650 billion of annual revenue in perpetuity, which equates to $34.72 a month from every current iPhone user. In perspective, Ross Hendrick says the AI math ain't math and two ways to fix it. 20x the revenue in the next five years or slash data center Capex. I'll take the latter on 100 to 1 odds. So what does a Capex pullback look like? There was another post here I thought was solid. Hari Raghavan says annual US spend on software is 400 billion. Professional services is 2.8 trillion. Logistics labor is 1 trillion. Healthcare admin 1 trillion, education, labor, 1 trillion, that's 6 trillion globally is probably 3x. Every market is up for grabs, all of them. If you don't get that, you aren't ready for what's coming. 650 billion is a joke. So again, I think understand the concern, but when you put it in terms of every. Basically every iPhone user needs to spend $34 a month on. Yeah, well, obviously AI. Yeah, yeah, no, I know, I know. But it's like if you're using Uber on your phone and Uber is spending a dollar per user on AI inference just for fraud detection, like that counts. Right, Right. It's like, how much are you spending on cloud computing? Like, cloud computing is a huge market, but you don't think about it as like, oh yeah, everyone spends my household cloud budget. Exactly. It's like, no, there are some customers, some companies that spend billions and billions of dollars on cloud hosting and then you interact with services all over the place. And the broad cloud computing market is just bigger than the AI market right now and will be for a long time. When you look at the AI CapEx numbers, they're all smaller than just the traditional CapEx numbers. Like the actual. Just building of a normal data center is still higher than building of an AI data center. And that's because they're actually monetizing cloud computing very effectively. Because everyone needs a database for something or other, or a web hosting platform, something like that. Everyone needs turbopuffer search, every byte, serverless vector and full text search built from first principles on object storage, fast 10x cheaper and extremely scalable. Where else did you want to skip ahead a little bit or you want to go back to the AI Capex build out? It is very odd to put it in those terms. I remember someone putting Bitcoin in the same terms to me when Bitcoin was at like 10k or something and he was like, look, the math is like, in order to have a stable price at the 100k price that people are talking about, you would have to have billions and billions flowing in every day and stuff. And it's like. And somehow that just wound up happening. And I remember being very convinced by this by saying, like, yeah, that doesn't make any sense. How could it possibly become an investment vehicle that is constantly seeing so much demand that it can justify such a huge, such a huge price and yet just did, because it just worked its way into like every single person's pension fund and like every single person's ETFs. Like, have a little bit of bitcoin in them and like. Yeah. And you stayed long even if you thought that that scenario was crazy because you were, you were like, well I should have some exposure if it's at all within the realm of possibility. Yeah, yeah, exactly. There were more reasons to like stay long than actually dip out. The most interesting point from the semianalysis segment yesterday was this. Did you pick up on when he mentioned the. Tyler's standing up. Tyler's rocking the standing desk today. Give us a review. How is it feeling? You haven't been standing the whole time you've been sitting down. You need a. I like to move around. Yeah, stand up, sit down. Yeah. Well, we need to get you one of the taller chairs. But there was. In the semi analysis interview yesterday, our guest was talking about this idea of putting an H100 index on the stock market. That was something he kind of alluded to. And I feel like that would be pretty, pretty crazy. I don't even know how mechanically that would work. But if all of a sudden just. Treating it like a commodity. Yeah. But actually taking something from. Currently it lives on the balance sheets of neo clouds and hyperscalers and actually taking a product and just like making it, making it a commodity that you can just invest in directly is not really like. I don't think it's very simple. I think it actually is a complex process. But it certainly would potentially generate a ton more liquidity. Like there would just be a lot more investment dollars flowing in if, if there was like a way to like directly get in on the AI trade by just investing in like the underlying. AI Capex trade is betting on AI and then we need other people betting on the AI Capex. Yeah, yeah. I don't know. I don't know. I mean like derivative bets. Johnson, you're saying we're going higher. I mean that's certainly what semianalysis was saying. And it certainly, it just feels like the, it was foolish to. It is foolish or it was foolish to. To sound the alarm bells around the idea of like debt being used at all. It's like debt is fine, debt is good. The question is just like are we actually over levered? There's not like. So when I look at like oh, meta has like 4 billion of debt for this one little side project thing, I'm like, that's still a very stable business. Like that's not like, oh, they're super indebted. Like they, oh, how are they going to pay their debts? Like, like there's just a wild continuum on like how much leverage is in the system, what that leads to in terms of like risk. We're now, we're at a turning point where we might be going really heavy levered. We might be bringing in, you know, more ETF government guarantees. I don't even know if there's a NEO cloud in the S&P 500 yet. Like that is an interesting breakpoint because once you're in the S&P 500, there is way more liquidity because there are funds ETFs that just buy the S&P 500. And so once you're in the S&P 500, you sort of have like price support. You have extra investors that are like lining up and they're like, I'm riding with you no matter what as long as you're in the S&P 500. Yeah, I mean it's notable that Oracle has fully round tripped from before the OpenAI announcement. So leading up to the OpenAI announcement, they were at $241 a share. They're now at $235 a share. Yeah. And so the market is no longer giving them credit for the OpenAI deal. That is interesting. Yeah, well. Nebius is down 10% in the last five days. Coreweave is down 25% in the last five days and iron is down 17% in the last five days. So. So jitters to say the least. Microsoft can't power all of its AI chips as CEO. Satya Nadella this is from Zero Hedge. I don't know if you want to read through a little bit of this. But yeah, the thing that was notable here is coreweave on their earnings call yesterday was Core Weave was saying that they aren't power constrained, that that's not their problem. What are they constrained by? I mean they had a weaker forecast, which is part of why it traded traded. It's traded down dramatically today. But again they grew revenue 2x and they still traded down pretty dramatically. So there's more datacenter news from Joe Weisenthal. But first let me tell you about Google AI Studio. Create an AI powered app faster than ever. Get started. Gemini understands the capabilities you need and automatically wires up the right models and APIs for you. Get started at AI Studio Build. Joe Weisenthal is excerpting a Bloomberg News article that says two of the world's biggest data center developers have projects in Nvidia's hometown that may sit empty for years because the local utility isn't ready to supply electricity. In Santa Clara, California, where the world's biggest supplier of artificial intelligence chips is based Digital Realty Trust applied in 2019 to build a data center. Roughly six years later, the development remains an empty shell awaiting energization. Stack Infrastructure, which was acquired earlier this year by Blue Owl Capital, has a nearby 48 megawatt project that's also vacant while the city owned utility Silicon Valley Power struggles to upgrade its capacity. 48 megawatts. What are we doing here? That seems like that's child play. The data center for ants, that should. Be child's play, but they're not able to do it. What's going on? Byron Deer was responding to Elon Musk's post, saying Elon was agreeing that every AI application startup is likely to be crushed by rapid expansion of foundational model providers. Byron said, I don't buy it at all. No chance that four companies deliver all software value in the future, especially as the software Tam is growing 10x to include a labor component? Yeah, I think we'll have to see. Obviously the labs are extremely ambitious, but I tend to side more with Byron here that as long as the labs don't have as long as the labs are saying you can access our best intelligence vrapi, it feels like there's going to be durable competition while you have open source models lagging, but not lagging by very much at all. Yeah, my current way to think about this is that the labs are new hyperscalers as you've put it before, which means that they will compete in a lot of different categories and there will be matchups and ultimately will depend on the quality of the team. So the way I think about like browser base versus AWS's competitor is like, well if Paul at Browser Base goes up against the AWS project manager and works harder and is more creative and marshals capital and does the right deals and partners with the 1Password team for example, he can create a sustainable business. Sometimes that might be a duopoly, sometimes that might be total victim victory. And a lot of it depends on the nature of the market that they're going after. Is it possible that in 5 years OpenAI just gets completely destroyed on AI vertical video but AI vertical video as a category wins and that there's actually a different startup that cracks it and makes it great and grows it huge? I think absolutely that's possibility. It just matters on like there's a matchup that happens in every single category and I don't think it's fair to say that the foundation model labs will win every category by default or they'll lose Every category by default. It's like Google happened to win in email and Maps, but they lost in chat and they lost in social networking and in RSS feeds. They won in some places, they lost in others. And that's just the nature of these competitions. It's like if there's a particular team in place at one company and then there's a startup that's better than that team, then the startup wins. If the team inside the company is better than the startup, you get Paul Buchite at Google and he's building Gmail. I'm sure there were a lot of email founders out there that were trying to compete with Paul Buchite, but Paul Buchite smoked him and Gmail is what it is today. And so I still lean on like who are the actual folks working on the project? Are they are the best people inside the organization or outside the organization? Yeah. And that's how it over on the. App store charts, ChatGPT is still number one. Threads is number two. Shout out Connor Hayes. Number three is Go Wish your digital wish list. Create wishes and get inspired. Number four is Google Gemini. Number five is Sora. So Sora is sliding down the charts but still in the top five. We'll have to look if, if Fubo can overtake Sora, that would be a win for organic media. I am a little lost. Let me tell you about profound get your brand mentioned in ChatGPT. Reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover new products and brands. Do you want to did you go down? J Boltard one says Calm down people. Masa's son is a male Cathy woods him selling Nvidia today means Nvidia has plenty of upside left. It is, it is. I mean it just comes down to he will take he's selling Nvidia, he's going to give that money to OpenAI and then OpenAI is going to give it to Nvidia. Sold. We will see. Casey Hanmer who's coming on the show in 20 minutes says that remember we could automate 99.99% of air traffic control if it wasn't deliberately being used as a government funding canary. So we will have to ask him. He had another post earlier this week. Government or a month ago actually funding Canary or funded Canary. He said funding Canary. Casey Canary in the coal mine. What is a canary? Yeah, we have to ask him about this. I saw his other post which was interesting. I realized the doom graphics engine running on a pregnancy test CPU could handle all of North American traffic control. I'm going to sit down for a bit. This needs to be in the bangers. Get this man. The bangers tag. This is such a good. There's an article, I was curious. There's an article here from the Verge that says digital pregnancy tests are almost as powerful as the original IBM PC. That's insane. A lot of computer to read. An old fashioned pee strip. Yeah, that's what it does. You know that right? Like when you see those digital tests, it's literally just like basically pointing a camera at a test strip and being like, did it turn blue or not or did it turn. Turn red? No way. Yeah, no, that's how it works. So, so in. So basically they make a test strip and then it has a chemical in there and when the person like pees on it, it like the, the, the, the human sample interacts with the chemicals and turns a color. Yeah. And so normally you just look at it and you're like, oh, it turned the color. Like it's pink. So that means one thing or it's blue. That means another thing. But, but they like to make it digital. They just point a camera it and say like, what is it looking at? I'm pretty sure I might be wrong. Who knows? This is probably fake news and it'll go viral on Instagram as it always does. In other news, Yann Lecun. He's out. See ya. He's out. Out. He's out from Meta. He's gonna launch his own startup. Tyler, what's your reaction? I mean, this is pretty big news. I think people have kind of expected this for a while. Yeah. Basically since Alexander Wayne came in. Because Alexander Wang kind of in some sense like took over as like the chief AI person at Meta, which was. Not enough room in this town for two AI. Not enough room for chief scientist. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Not enough room in this town for two chief AI scientists. And so Yan is like very goated AI researcher. He's been in the game for like super long. Yes, he did. He. I think probably his most famous paper is like Lunette, which is like the original convolutional paper. Lynette. The Net. Well, I don't know, did he name it after himself? I think that's what people call it. I don't know what the actual paper is. That's awesome. It's like Alexnet. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's like not actually called Alex. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But yeah, it was like the OG Convolutional Neural Network paper. And then that kind of basically led him to deep learning. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then the main thing is, like, today he's, like, very much seen as being bearish on LLM. He doesn't think they can reason. He doesn't think they can, like, do novel tasks or whatever. So he's been, like, very outspoken about that. I think that's maybe part of the reason why he just has kind of a different vision from Zuck and Alexander Wang. But, yeah, I mean, this is pretty big news. Do you think he will raise a private credit fund, get into data centers? I'm no longer interested in research and the science behind it all. Well, I'm interested in finance. I'm interested in finance. I mean, he has. I forget exactly what it's called, but he has, like, another kind of path that he sees to AGI. He's. He's still a professor at nyu, which I think is where he does most of his research these days. So I think he'll probably just stay in academia. Does he have any active classes going on this semester? Because if he does, we should send you onto the campus to study, not just from the timeline, but in the classroom, and you can do a little on the ground reporting. Taylor in the chat says le credit. Has he taken a formal victory lap on scaling laws not holding? Because from your perspective, it's a preemptive. It would be a preemptive victory lap because I know Gary Marcus was sort of taking a victory lap with Richard Sutton after that Dwarkesh podcast. And then Andrej Karpathy sort of, like, confirmed that it might be a little bit harder to scale up the current paradigm. Yeah, I mean, I don't think anyone is saying, like, scaling up is going to get easier. Right. You just need to. You need bigger data centers. You need to, like, spend way more money. I don't think today you can just say that, like, pre training is dead, though. That's, like, definitely not true. Isn't. Isn't that sort of Yann LeCun's take, though, or Richard Sutton's take or. I think Yann Lecun is generally against all LLMs. He's not just saying that, like, LLMs were. They were very promising and then they kind of fizzled out. I think he's kind of always been against LMS as a way to AGI. Yeah. I think it would definitely be preemptive to say that he was, like, correct, though. Yeah. Okay. Don't want to cut you off, Tyler, but this is more important. OTP in the chat says Buffett is low key. A huge boxing Fan and I know at least one gym around his state that he has at least had a hand in funding. And I looked it up and he's a huge fan of Terence Crawford, the boxer. And he will go watch. He'll go, can see the fights and he likes the cheap seats because he can see he has a better. He feels like he has a better angle. That's interesting. I like that. I did not know. So he is, he's a patron of combat. We're not ready to say he's a patron of the arts, but in some way this is martial, kind of somewhat of a martial art. Never look down on Warren Buffett. This guy is amazing. Loves McDonald's, loves boxing, apparently loves allocating capital efficiently. You know, he stays in his lane. It's great. Do we have an update from Brian Johnson? He came back from his trip. He was on psychedelics. I feel like I'm expecting him to fall in love with at least one fast food restaurant. I want him to, to flip around on at least one and say, okay, yeah, I'm an in and out guy now. He's been quiet. I do wonder if he'll update on anything or if he's just like so, so powered through that it just will not affect him at all because like wasn't. He was kind of framing it as like, this is like a big deal. It seems like he got through it just super fine. Saw a very viral post of somebody saying, I don't think it's a good thing that billionaires can talk about taking Schedule 1 drugs publicly with no repercussions. It did seem that he was doing it. Like this seems like still such a gray area where you can get it prescribed by a doctor, but it's still schedule one. He posted an update on his experience. He also talked more about why he says there's potential. It's potentially a longevity therapy for psilocybin. Expands lifespan in mice. It can reduce inflation markers tied to aging. It can increase brain entropy, breaks rigid patterns and boosts long term cognition and flexibility. Yeah, I don't know. I kind of agree with that person who is, who is saying like they shouldn't be able to talk about it publicly. I feel like he should have a disclaimer or something because there's going to be, there's people. He has such a huge audience. There's going to be some people that just listen to. Early in the early podcast era, you had Tim Ferriss, who to his credit was like doing work on himself and would share what he was doing. But he would talk about doing things like ibogaine, which is like a crazy, super powerful psychedelic. And he wasn't directly saying, hey, I think you should go take this. But when hundreds of thousands of people follow Tim for health advice, it sort of is like an indirect, it's somewhat of an endorsement, even if it's not directly. No, no. I mean, I 100% think some people will see this and be like, oh, oh, looks like he had a good experience. Let me jump straight to exactly his protocol, which is clearly not accessible for the average person. Like, he has been building up a tolerance to this particular chemical for probably a decade. And so it's going to hit him very differently than it will someone who's not in the same place. We were joking yesterday about like, oh, if he wanted to really challenge himself, he would have been at like a crowded concert or something. And there are going to be people that see this post, wind up actually doing that and wind up in a very, very rough spot. I feel like there should be more, a little more disclaimers on this. Like, hey, I am running a crazy experiment on myself. Like, do not try this at home. He needs. It's the. You know, you ever watch Jackass back in the day? Remember it opened every, every episode opened with like, don't. Do not. These are stunt professionals. Like, they do this professionally. Like, yes, they just look like random guys. But like behind the camera there's a huge. They are stuntmen. Like, and, and even that was still, like, was like, okay. Kids were like, you know, trying to try to jump their skateboards down too many stairs and getting hurt. But it wasn't like that bad. But there was still like a Do not try this at home. I did see some people responding and saying, I took a similar dose to this and it ruined, basically ruined my year. It took me, you know, months and months to recover. Yeah. I would say stay off the psychedelics. Stay on linear. Because Linear is a purpose built tool for planning and building products. Meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects and product roadmaps. That's where you want to be. You want to be locked in, in linear. Yeah, I do. I do. Knockout. I, I have, I have joked in the past, it's like, is, is, you know, are psychedelics going to fix your life or just, just doing the tasks that you've been avoiding? Is that gonna make you feel relief? Is that gonna make you feel better about your life? It's like that meme of the anime ninja. If you're tired, do it Tired. If you're sober, do it sober. Right? Just do it. John Coogan if you're sober, do it sober. Well, if you want to help make history, AngelList is launching a new product to fund the most creative, creative, hard working, technical founders building the innovations that push humanity forward. AngelList is hiring a marketing lead to launch and scale this product. Eric over at angellist, a friend of ours and the chief legal officer over there says you don't need prior experience running a marketing function, but you do need to be scrappy, data driven and comfortable in a startup environment. You'll own marketing strategy across a variety of channels to build awareness and drive growth. Growth. I know what this product is. I'm very excited about it but I unfortunately can't share. But if you reach out to Eric, if you DM him on X and you're interested in the role, I'm sure he can share more. But excited for this one to come online in the next couple months. I thought this was good. Somebody found a post from Sam Altman in 2016. Oh, I didn't realize this is old. I thought he just posted this 2016. So almost 10 years ago. Digital addiction is going to be one of the great mental health crises of our time. And Blade says Unk had this thought and immediately was like how do I profit from this? The greatest to ever do it. DBH Hilarious. Hilarious. Of course ChatGPT wouldn't launch for many, many years. Yes. But in that same he what did. When did he write the merge? That was like around the same time. But also I don't know to be fair. Like I like there are lots of things that you could like if you're trying to like layer up like the OpenAI is bad like case like you don't start with like the product's too addictive. Like I don't think that's the claim. The claim is like it uses too much water or it like one shots people or it does erotica or it's like like AI slop. But very few people are saying like oh yeah, people are on their phones too much and it's because of OpenAI. Now people are like it's people are on their phones too much but it's because of Instagram and it's because of like social media actually not the AI because of Sora. Well I think it's a little bit too early to say that. I don't think, I don't think it's working. Certainly short, short form video. Have you ever been in like the gym or in a coffee shop and seen someone scrolling sora, like over shoulder. I haven't seen. I meant, I meant vertical video. Broadly. Totally. Totally. Which is, I guess, I guess like a good take here, which is like, how do I profit from this? I got to make an AI version of it. That's, that's probably like more of what they were thinking. But, but in terms of, in terms of actually profiting on, on like digital addiction, it doesn't seem like it's going very well. Yeah. 4.0 seems to be extremely addictive. So much so that for a very. Small amount of people, like, absolutely. Yeah. For sure. Yeah. And we don't know how many people. Yeah. You know what else is addictive? Doing your sales tax with numeral. Putting your sales tax on autopilot. Spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance. I'm also addicted to the Financial Times. The Financial Times has coverage of Sequoia Capital and what's going on with Roloff. Bota out. Both of these top lieutenants pushed Roloff out. That's what they say. Leadership duo prepare to chart a new course at Sequoia after ousting of Imperial Botha venture capital firms. Limited partners hope Grady and Lynn can boost strategy and bring super intense period to close. They want to become less intense. That is very interesting. I would not think that. Okay, let's run through, let's try and understand the level of intensity at Sequoia now and potentially in the future. So from this article, we'd love seeing Andrew Reed there. The Financial Times. Let's just say they had to find a picture where he was pushing. It looked like he was pushing. They're like, you know, we're going to tell a story about someone being pushed out. We need a picture of one of the lieutenants pushing as much as, as close as we can get to that motion because that's the story we're trying to tell. Let's, let's figure out what's actually going on. Sequoia Capital's Roloff Bota was ousted by top lieutenants who lost confidence in his ability to keep Silicon Valley's most powerful venture firm ahead of its rivals. Bota stepped down as managing partner of the group last Tuesday following an intervention from Alfred Lynn. Pat Grady and Andrew Reed said multiple people with knowledge of the matter. The trio of senior partners had the blessing of the wider firm. And Douglione, Sequoia's former managing partner, said the three of the people their move came on the back of concerns about Bota's management style and questions about Sequoia's artificial intelligence investment strategy and followed high profile clashes between senior figures at the firm. The People Financial Times spoke to 10 people close to the firm. It's a leaky bucket over there in Sequoia Capital. They got the Financial Times on speed dial, I guess, including investors. At least one of them was an lp. Yes. Also it says people close to the firm, not necessarily people that are actually at the firm. It's hilarious to be like, oh, sorry, I can't be on our all hands today. I have a call, but with whom? I'm going to the dentist, actually. I'm going to the dentist. Yes, I'm going to the dentist. You went to the dentist last week. Oh, yeah. I'm going again. You're going. I have another checkup. I just gotta. We just gotta give props for one second to Sean McGuire. Yes. For there being an article about Sequoia. I mean, round of applause. That's amazing. He's like, this is the first freedom. I'm not in the doghouse for one. Oh, thank goodness. I love it. Yeah. Props to Sean for staying out of the Dodging the bullets. You did it. They said it was impossible. Dodging the bullets. Okay, so investors who have worked with both the and institutions that bankroll sequoia, known as LPs. So the LPs are snitching. The LPs are snitching. His ousting was motivated by a belief that a new generation of leaders would better serve Sequoia's LPs. They said so. Yeah, I mean, typically, if there's a change in leadership, even a change in the GP structure at all, you would expect. Expect an email to go out to all the LPs. That's probably what they're leaking. But then a lot of the LPs probably got on the phone with people and then the Financial Times got on the phone with those people with those LPs. One of those described the removal as a revolt against both imperial style of leadership following a period of upheaval at one of Silicon Valley's most successful and enduring firms. On an IQ level, he is off the charts. Off the charts. They didn't say which way he's off the charts. Are they calling him 0 IQ, minus 1 negative 1 IQ. That would be terrible. No, they clearly mean he's very intelligent, he's 180, 200, 300 IQ, who knows? But the heart of the matter is that Roloff is one of these people who always needs to be seen as the smartest guy in the room. Interesting, interesting, the person said, adding that both his emotional intelligence did not match his intellect. Roloff is a legendary investor leader in human being, sequoia's new leadership team told the ft. I mean, it's possible he was using too much Claude. And Claude kept telling him after every meeting he would dump in like the meeting notes and he'd be like Claude, am I goated? Am I goaded? Yeah, you're definitely in the conversation. Absolutely goat. You're absolutely right. The reason Sequoia has stayed Sequoia for 53 years is they refused to cement themselves in hierarchy. Grady and Lynn will now run the firm while Reid and Grady will co lead Sequoia's funds investing in more mature startups. So Reed is going up to the growth stage. Lynn and another partner, Luciana Lysandru, will co lead the firm's early stage investment fund. So Alfred Lynn will be doing some seed stage investing. Early stage Bota, who's run its US and European businesses since 2017 and took over the whole firm in 2022, will remain as an advisor. The 52 year old grandson of Roloff Peake Botha, the last Foreign secretary under South Africa's apartheid regime and later a member of Nelson Mandela's first government, was hired by by PayPal to PayPal by Elon Musk. Early in his career he's led investments in Instagram, YouTube, MongoDB. Sequoia has returned more than 50 billion to its US and European investors. Despite those successes, partners decided Lynn, who has backed Airbnb, DoorDash and OpenAI, and Grady, who's behind investments in Snowflake, Zoom and ServiceNow, were better placed to lead Sequoia under both.

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