LIVE CLIPS
EpisodeĀ 1-20-2026
People who are in finance have financial expertise, or at least many of them believe they do. Obviously to some extent, it's like a casino and you're sort of arming them with tools. A lot of the tools haven't changed. I do have this thing I want to show you guys when I'm ready. I think we're going to call like sit or sit rep or Sitch. It's going to be like the Situation Monitoring suite. Bloomberg has these like, fake systems that are. They're pretty awful, but there's something where you get like, see the map and you can kind of see different things happening, like earthquakes or whatever. But, like, take that and actually make it really good. I think people would. Would truly want to monitor situations. I think that's a new. Like, there's no situation. It's a new hobby. I mean. Yeah, no, it's a new. It's a new category. It's in. It's. And it's a prosumer category because people, I think, actually enjoy it so much that it's like camping where I think people will be willing to spend money. Oh, totally. So think about the revenue of Bloomberg with 8 billion, 10 billion, whatever. A satellite constellation. Maybe it's 100 mil. And imagine if you're sitting at Citadel or Millennium or some hedge fund or Fidelity or something, and you're literally tasking a satellite. Like, no, actually I want a satellite to point here, you know, and what margin difference would it make? You could probably pass through, probably be accretive to EBITDA to have your own constellations, like satellite constellation, and then things like drones or maybe, you know, there's, you know, Bloomberg right now. I think they have like, ships and shipping routes and flights and like, kind of fairly boring stuff, but you could make it 100 times better. So that'll be fun. When it's ready. And again, this is all inspired. This whole sector started with the Bezos kind of. That's right. Really? It really did. What's your take on prediction markets? Do you enjoy them? Do you think that they're valuable uses of information? Do you think it all just winds up being sports betting? Like, where does all this go?
Biotech at some point during this show. All $3 on it. Yeah, exactly, exactly. No, no. But yeah. What are you thinking on prediction markets? Valuable, useful. Do you use them? Do you trade? Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, I think it's probably like social media, like the first social media companies. If you go back into that Steve Levy book about Facebook, which I think is just fantastic, like almost documenting every part of it. There were a couple of very random, even before Friendster, you know, a couple of these really proto social media companies and the sector exploded. I think that's where we're at. I don't think. I mean, I wish the companies the best of luck. Except for Halsey, but the two companies. But I do think that, you know, markets have been around for, you know, hundreds of years, if not longer in ice and CBO and these other companies are publicly traded. They don't sit there and twiddle their thumbs and say, gee, you know, I hope, I hope some creative new market comes along. They make financial products all the time that, you know, they innovate, they add new things and then they actually take them down because they don't catch fire in Wall Street. So if you want to be like that micro kind of, you know, micro markets, sort of pioneer, it's interesting, but it's sort of still like you get into scale problems with like who actually arbitrates some of these bets. Obviously sports is easy and some of these other things. But you know, how much are you just financializing for financializing sake? Sure. And is that sustainable when you actually need people with tons of money to fight the arbitrage gradient, you know, if you're betting. So full disclosure, I've been running the spot on Polymarket that makes a market in the Bitcoin 15 minute markets which are somewhat inefficient in Nobody needs to trade this. Right. There's no actual benefit to trading this other than you can take two to the end bets. So you get around, I guess, 96 bets a day. And if you somehow the money velocity of getting a lot of those right, you can compound insanely. Well, of course it's random, but people hope springs eternal that you could somehow get the rhythm of the market every 15 minutes and you can, I think somebody posted on Polymarket, they took a very small amount of money and very large amount of money. So you know, it is, it is kind of a. I think it's a bit of a waste of ingenuity and engineering. And we're working on trying to sort of make a prediction market that might be more relevant, say private companies. You know, right now the binary outcomes of prediction markets have forced you into this box of like, will OpenAI go public this year? A trillion valuation. Why can't it just be dollar for dollar? Why not? Like this is just a market that pays you n dollars per swap. And I'm sure that might be being worked on by other companies, but I think that's an economically rational thing. So the spirit is there. We should have our own markets. We should be able to deploy whatever we want, but actually make it make sense. I think they're still trying to do that. What is the state of tracking large late stage private companies valuations? We have a ticker at the bottom with Mag 7 big tech companies with market caps. I would love to add anthropic OpenAI but I saw some debate over how you actually get the data, how reliable it is. Explain. I got into it Lonsdale. I unfollowed him for five minutes because of it. I was just so mad. Brutal because worst five minutes. Worst five minutes.
On. Yeah. You got to find some alpha, have some. Have some conviction. Yeah. How big? How what. What's the environment like in your office? You guys have remote component. Are you anti remote? Remote. Remote is. Is evil. You know, I think that if you're going to war together, you can't go to war remotely. You know, it's. You know, my. My people fought the Ottoman Empire, and, you know, one. One man, you know, famous general, you know, stopped the Ottoman Empire largely by himself, and at least that's a legend. And if we're going to take on Bloomberg or whoever we're fighting, I just don't think you could do it with some guy sitting at home with the current. What's the current battle that you guys are fighting and how.
Their day to day. Talk to me about mobile voting. We've heard about it for a long time. Do you think it's ever going to happen? What are you doing in this space? Why is it important? Okay, explain. So, all right, let's start. It's important because in a world of gerrymandering, and I'll make the assumption that the viewers know what that is, the only election that matters is the primary. So the New York Times did a study of the 2024 general election. Only 8% of congressional races were decided by 5 points or less. And only 7% of state legislative races were decided by 5 points or Less. Which means well over 90% of elections are really determined in the primary. And the problem is primary turnout is incredibly low. It's usually about 10%. And so who are those 10%? They're the extremes, the far left or the far right or there are different special interests, whether it's the NEA or the nra, either side, that effectively dictate what happens. And if you are a politician and all you want to do is stay in office and then you cater to those groups at the exclusion of everyone else. But because those groups are purists, they don't want compromise, they don't want consensus. They just want to sort of hold true to their principles no matter what the cost is. And so nothing gets done. And the simplest way to solve that is to meaningfully increase primary turnout. But the only way to do that is to meet the voters where they are. Every single one of us has a supercomputer in our pocket. And if you can allow people to vote in at least state and local elections on their phones, you can get primary turnout from 10 to, say, 40. And now all of a sudden, if in order to get reelected, you have to represent 40% of your constituents instead of 10, that 40% is much more moderate and they want things to get done. So if that means working with the other side to find a reasonable compromise on immigration or guns or health care or climate or whatever it is you can do. So it's not that government doesn't know what the answers are, it's that embracing them in perils reelection. And they won't do that. And so I started something called the Mobile voting project in 2017. And the first thing we did was test the hypothesis that I just laid out. And so we funded elections out of my foundation is totally philanthropic in seven different states where either people with disabilities or deployed military were able to vote in real elections on their phones. And the answer Was of course, as you guys know, when you make something a lot easier and you put it on people's phones, they do it. So that was true. Then the next question became, okay, but is the tech really good enough to do this? At scale, it was totally fine for 2,000 soldiers from West Virginia, 3,000 blind people in Oregon. But if we're trying to get every district from 10 to 40, and the tech that was on the market at the time wasn't good enough for that. So we spent five years building our own mobile voting technology that is end to end, encrypted, end to end verified, has biometric screening, multifactor authentication, just air gapped. And all of the code is open source, which means it's on GitHub right now. So totally transparent, totally audible. And the next part is then, okay, getting government to say, yes, you can actually do it. So that's about to happen. For the first time in April, Anchorage, Alaska is making mobile accessible to all of their hits a gong. Hit the gong for mobile voting overnight. Thank you. And we are running legislation in five states, Minnesota, Colorado, Vermont, New Jersey, Maryland, that would allow cities in those states to start offering mobile voting as an option for local elections. Citizens I can imagine are super excited about this. Who's not excited about it? Polls. Really? Well, yeah. Yeah, because you're just like, oh no, I love going to the poll. I love taking, you know, an hour out of my day to go do this thing that. So there's the people, there are a few smaller opponents and there's in reality the big one. So the smaller ones are. There are some cryptographers who have said it's impossible, can never be done, something can go wrong and they're not wrong. Something could go wrong, but things go wrong at in person power places all the time. Things go wrong with mail, in voting all the time. And the risk of inaction is where we are today. And this is not sustainable for 24 years. And there are groups like this one called Verified Voting that are kind of the anti vaxxers of voting. So they're just like in paper, on paper, in person, nothing else. You know, they're the crazies. Just like the anti vax people, in my view are a little crazy. But the real opponents at the end of the day are the status quo. Because if you are an ideologue or a special interest and primary turnout is 10%, you have a lot of power because your threats go a long way. Well, yeah. And you look at who's actually turning out for the primaries and you can concentrate budget on influencing that subgroup which is much better than having to appeal to an entire region or a huge age range right exactly so that's what. We'Re really gonna have to fight through but if you think about every major right in this country it's ever been one on women's right to vote Civil Rights act Voting Rights act same sex marriage America's disabilities Act whatever it is status quo didn't want to do any of those things right enough people stood up loud enough and long enough and demanded their rights and eventually they won and it's not easy and it takes a while and it's expensive but that's what we have to do here too. And we're trying really quick I know we're mostly out of time how do you think what do you think the dialogue will be around AI in the midterm elections Negative I think it's going to be pretty bad and is this the kind of thing that certain politicians are going to.
How the different AI agent coding models feel about Clickhouse will be important to your business? Well, you know Anthropic spoke at our event last year in San Francisco. So did OpenAI and Tesla. And Anthropic discovered Clickhouse by asking Claude what they should be using for observability and cloud said you should be using Clickhouse. And I had a had a call with the CEO of a very large fintech company in Europe last week and he said every we ask what we should be using for this new real time analytics product we're building suggests Clickhouse. And so you know, fortunately a lot of people are turning to these LLMs for guidance on what technologies they should be they should be adopting. And I think as everybody knows like you know it, decision making has been completely turned on its head from kind of a tops down sea level mandate. You're going to use Oracle, you're going to use IBM now to a developer LED evaluation. And open source creates such a fast path for a developer who's building an agentic application to deploy experience experiment with technology without any sort of vendor relationship they can actually push it into production. For some of these agentic applications without any sort of vendor relationship, open source is completely disrupting how these LLM providers and enterprises are deploying these applications. And we made an acquisition last week that we announced on Friday alongside our financing that we're super excited about. It's a company out of Berlin called Langfuse and.
Have there been any challenges on actually scaling the business from an infrastructure size? You're at a scale where many AI companies are struggling with data centers, GPU poor. How is the actual build vs buy decision changed over the last few years? How has the infrastructure side of the business changed? Yeah, well, scalability is one of Clickhouse's strengths and always has been. I mean, we've got. You just talked about Elon's. Many of Elon's companies are using Clickhouse. Tesla is a great example of that, where they're ingesting a billion events per second into Clickhouse and there just isn't another database in the world. I think you need to start listening. Tell us who's not a customer and then it'll be quicker. Yeah, fair enough. I mean, you just kind of get your head around the volume of data that these LLMs are generating and the ability to ingest that in an efficient way, to be able to store and analyze that. You know, Clickhouse really shines. So scalability is something. Something that we really promote and our customers talk about as one of the unique characteristics of Clickhouse. Yeah.
Like an archive that can be really good. But yeah, just how have you been processing it? Yeah, for sure. I think that, you know, we're definitely seeing a lot of backlash within the ecosystem against a lot of other platforms where AI generated content is kind of proliferating all of the feeds and you know, people are engaging with stuff that they don't even know is AI generated content. And maybe they search the thing and then they click into it and they see that it's labeled by AI and they find that really frustrating. Yeah. And we're definitely growing a lot of users now that we kind of consider like refugees from this. We really want to be a platform that champions human creativity and human created content. Now that's not to say that we're drawing a hard stance against AI generated content, but I think that it's really important that people are able to decide what they want to see. And so we've done what some of these other platforms have done as well, is every image that gets uploaded on platform, we're running it through multiple different algorithms to detect if that is AI generated. And so every user has settings within their profile where they can choose to show or hide AI generated content. Interesting. And then how confident are you that you're catching all of it? Yeah, I mean, it's an uphill battle, right? I mean it keeps getting better. You have to keep retraining the models and it's only going to get more difficult. So, you know, I think that it's only a matter of time before it's pretty difficult to. There's also some AI models I've noticed where I will upload an image, ask it to do something and it kind of just spits out the exact same image. Or maybe it just like adds a piece of text and it feels like it didn't actually run a new diffusion model. It just sort of used some tool to like layer over text and it's like. Well, it's kind of just acting as agentic Photoshop at that point. It's not really creating an AI image. Like all the details and fingers are the same because it's literally the same pixels that it's just using. And so does that count? Yeah, it's going to be all hairy. I'm interested to know how you think about for you pages, algorithmic feeds versus search and being more of a search engine, is that line blurring? What are the important trade offs? What do you like and dislike about algorithm design? Yeah, for sure. We have a for you page on Cosmos that learns your taste and learns your interests as you say things. I think it's important that you have something like that so people have a new vector that they can discover content through. What's really interesting is the search problem is actually very similar to the for you problem, especially when you get into the world of serving people. Personalized search. Right. So you train your for you, we have an idea of what your tastes and your aesthetic leanings are. And then when you search something, you're actually just adding that keyword over sort of this vectorized database of visual aesthetic that you've already identified with. So the problems are actually very related and intertwined. I think one thing that we've done that's really interesting is we've started developing in house aesthetic prediction models. So we've actually been using all of our own data, user data, user uploaded content and we've been training models that understand kind of like what good versus bad looks like. And we're using these aesthetic predictions to loosely re rank our search results in our for you pages to try to keep the slop off of the platform. We believe slop wars. You're deep in the slop wars. Frontline soldier here in the foxhole. I salute your service. I think we believe that your outputs are a reflection of your inputs. And so it's very philosophically important that we're feeding people high quality inputs because so many creative projects start with the mood boarding phase. And so if the inputs are going to become the output, it's really important that we're giving people a place where they can find the highest quality.
Business, how are you growing these years? So we've gone in the last three years from not being a defense focused business and Divergent to being a defense focused business. We're dual use, dual tech. So we do have our commercial arm. The auto business is growing, Our supply to really the European luxury brands is growing, but the focus is on defense right now. Three years ago we had zero contracts. Today we're on over 40 active contracts. And that's what's really unique about Divergent is we're not competing head to head with Anduril and Lockheed and Raytheon. Rather we're servicing all of the primes. So you can build this horizontal manufacturing layer as a service to all of them. You can bet not on one to five programs of record, but rather service 100 programs of record over time and be that manufacturing supplier for them. We've gone through that journey of first refactoring the company to work on defense, winning our first contracts, delivering our first prototypes, flying those, proving the performance of a new technology, and then actually in the last six months, winning our first scale production programs. Now if you come to the facility, you'll see exit rates at around 100amonth of main bodies for large Cruise missile systems. So 80amonth or 100amonth. It's not high volume for Auto, but for our defense landscape. Making a thousand missiles per year, that's on the high volume side of things. That's what Divergence Factory in Torrance is already churning out. Now we've almost gotten to full capacity on our Torrance facility with those contracts. We're starting to look at factory 2, 3, 4, 5. We got multiple states that we're, you know, kind of shopping and partnering with right now. And then also looking at California because it makes sense for especially the startup community here, which are great partners for us to have another manufacturing platform here. Yeah, what about other applications?
Admitted, but it's also kind of a useful place to work from because then you have to understand what can I do to make said politician feel like doing what I want will either help them win the next election or if they don't. So the tech industry should tell Ro Khanna, we won't, we won't trash you in the next election cycle if you don't put our industry in the dirt. Yeah. Or quite frankly, it's funny just by, you know, Larry Page and others acting in their own self interest and already saying, I'm moving to Florida. The billionaires referendum is already on the ropes because of that. So sure, if you know, if you think about why, let's say in a place like California, there are unions that just seiu, the teachers have so much power in Sacramento, it's because they have so much money that they can threaten any given politician and say, if you don't do what we want, we're going to spend $1 million, $5 million, whatever number they want against you in the. And everybody backs down because winning the next election is more important to them than any given policy or any given issue. So not every tech startup obviously has the kind of money that a union might have to throw around. So you have to be more creative about it. And that's where your customers can be really useful advocates. Interesting. What's your current outlook on the venture landscape?
But you know, there are states that are very thoughtful around AI regulation. And there are a couple of states, Utah, Texas, Arizona, Kentucky, that have created regulatory sandboxes. You guys know what that is? It's effectively like a notion of saying, okay, you know what, there's this thing that we know is really important. We know it's going to take experimentation and rather than subjecting it to the political process, let's put together a team of experts who can, at least on a provisional basis, say we're going to try out these ideas in our state and as long as it's working the way we thought, it'll keep going. And those are four states that have chosen to do that. And so those were the obvious places for us to start. Utah is just a really well run state. Governor Cox is an excellent governor. And so we, and they're not a typical state for a lot of reasons. And also they are becoming a very, very tech forward and friendly state because as you see migration, especially from California, let alone before the billionaires referendum tax thing happens, Utah is becoming, you know, Silicon slopes are calling it. So yeah, we're going to Texas next, which is a giant market, obviously the second biggest in the country. And you know, once we start showing that it works, you know, even if you think this is the very first tech company that I worked with was Uber, started doing that early 2011. And the thing that Travis Kalanick, who was the founder and CEO of Uber Time, understood and he was right about, is just get the genie out of the bottle. I mean, Travis didn't pretend to understand politics, but what he did know was that he had a product that was meaningfully better than the status quo. And if you guys think back to the first couple of times you used Uber, it was magic, right? You couldn't, kind of couldn't believe it. You just pressed a button and this nice car showed up and here they were. And you have to like it down or deal with some crazy cab company or anything else. And we knew that once people saw that it worked, they would fight for it and the arguments against it would get weaker and weaker and we were able to effectively mobilize our customer base. Well, you have, you have the two. It's both participants fighting for it too. You have the drivers and the users, which is the most powerful dynamic. Right, right. And so when you can do that. But you know, it's funny, there is a whole question as to when do you have a product or a service that people will fight for. And sometimes it's, you might have a really good company that's going to be a good investment, but it doesn't sort of excite people in that way. But what we found is FanDuel worked really well. Bird scooters worked really well. Ease, which is cannabis delivery, worked really well. Crypto, that works really well. For. So, you know, you have to think about, if you're a founder. Do I? You're obviously passionate about it, because otherwise you wouldn't have founded the company in the first place and made all the sacrifices that you've made. But you have to be somewhat objective, saying, okay, do regular people find this thing that I am doing truly critical and fascinating. You said, you said fan. You said.
Chemist in San Diego. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's crazy. Wanted your take on the peptides. Boom. Yeah, yeah. Peptides are, you know, every time somebody asks me about it, I have to laugh because peptide is defined as a small protein. And so what you're really asking is what is my take on the unapproved self medication? Boom. And you know, when you phrase it that way. No, no, no, no. And that's, that's like to me, I tried a peptide cycle probably five years ago and I was like, okay, this is cool. And I noticed a moderate effect. But I also acknowledge that I'm administering effectively an experiment. Experimental drug is not the right framing, but it's not the same as walking into Erewhon and getting some vitamin D and having a daily supplement. It's like you're in inject, you're doing an injection. The source matters a ton. And it is far closer to taking a round of anabolic steroids than it is adding some creatine to your smoothie. I just think it's nuts. I mean, if you think it's a good idea to do your own research on medicine, self medicate and on uncontrolled substances that are manufactured God knows where that have not been clinical trials. And I mean, I'm as libertarian as it gets, but I just don't understand why what the impetus is to like take foreign substances without like some emergency need. And it just, it boggles my mind because, you know, people, there's some psychological phenomenon where people need to feel in control or they need something in their life that they feel like they're taking a risk on or, you know, it's nuts. I mean, why, why would you do it? Well, and explain why they're probably will never be clinical trials for these drugs, right. There's this edge case where you know, you have a cosmeceutical in essence or kind of like something that doesn't quite fit what's a disease to the fda. So a good example is premature ejaculation. So the FDA does not consider that an illness. European drug regulators do. And so you can get approved for impotence in America because it actually sort of a medical problem where it's like, oh, if I can't, you know, copulate, produce, it's a big medical kind of emergency in a sense. Premature inoculation is sort of like, well, you have it, this is what it is. And so the FDA has never been willing to approve. A company a long time ago tried to get an old JJ drug called dapoxetine approved for premature ejaculation. And the FDA basically said there's no set of circumstances where we will prove this. And what's weird about that is, okay, well what if you actually do suffer and it's a severe psychological detriment? As much as we joke about it, people joked about erectile dysfunctional long time ago. And it's a serious illness to many. So you live in this twilight of like, well, I know what drug works. This drug depoxetine actually does work, but I also know it'll never be FDA approved. So what do I do? And in some ways you're sort of like, I'm taking an unapproved, technically illegal substance and I'm buying it off some shady third party market. So eventually I think we need to find a way just like almost like, well, we just talked about prediction markets. You have these third markets where it's like, yeah, you can bet on what Trump's going to say in a speech and it's not registered stock exchange. But it's also more than just you and me making a side bet. And it's the same thing with, with this where it's like the proxy is on peptide. But you know, the vaccine is medically useful for that disease. If you call the disease FDA won't say no. So it's not like I'm taking some random goop, you know, it's a real medicine. But it's in this middle of like, what do you do with this thing? And so much of, you know, so much of what we do as investors or whatever is in that middle. Uber, you could sort of define Uber is in that weird middle as well. So I think eventually, you know, we need to address like, it's not as insane as maybe I'm making it out to be. I think some of it is. But eventually you need to address this. Like, how do we do Pep? Well, even, even like, yeah, BPC157, like there's no incentive to spend the tens of millions of dollars on trials. Like you would need some type of like you trade group or something in order to fund that. Because if one company did it, then every company would get the benefit of it. So why would one company spend the tens of millions of dollars in drug development? We have an app for that. We can take that drug, twist it, change it, figure out, make it better, and then you get a new patent and then you have an incentive. So there is sort of a way to do that. And that's not uncommon. I mean, you know, trolling around PubMed looking for. Oh, this drug actually does something I'll make. You know, take it to my boss at Merck. Boss says, no patent. Come back the next day and say, here's the same drug with the nitrogen atom coming out of here. It's going to work the same way. And he says, all right, you know, maybe we should run with that. Run it? Yeah, run it. Well, thank you so much for always. Fun show. So much fun.
Don't have the same data and infrastructure. And what you learn on the battlefield is that. And in life is that that's not particularly valuable. What is very valuable is an enterprise can do something no enterprise in the world can do. And so that is the goal of every single military intelligence service. In fact, all these intelligence service and militaries have their own specialization. And so when we went to commerce, like, what we're saying is, how can we make your insurance cover the way you underwrite? How can we make that to your tribal knowledge about underwriting? How can we transform this to knowledge everyone has. Okay, go back one second. Go back one second. Transform this to knowledge. Okay, it's very hard to see, but behind the guy to the right, behind. Alex Karp. Behind Alex Karp, there's another man. And behind that man, next to the WEF logo is a man who has been on the show, Philip. Johnston, the co founder, CEO. Wait, I thought you were talking about Satya Nadella. Wait, what? I think that's Satya in the. Wait. Oh, you think it's Satya? No, I'm talking about the guy right there that you can see. That's Phillips from Star Cloud. I saw him going to Davos and I was like, this guy's on a generational run. This whole thing. Wait, is it not. Maybe it's not. I think it is. I'm really sorry, Philip, if I got this wrong, but that looks. That looks a lot like you might be getting it wrong, too. That looks a lot like you. We might just be seeing things. We might be seeing things. We might be hallucinating. But the one thing we're not hallucinating is Lambda.
That counts as a crash. Like, I mean like Harrison Ford has, has like crash landed on a golf course and no, I believe no one was injured. I think it's happened multiple times actually by Harrison Ford. Harrison Ford? Yeah, he flies his own planes, but he flies like old planes and stuff. Like he's like a true enthusiast. Like he's, he's, he's, he's like a plane guy. How many simple flying dot com. How many plane crashes has Harrison Ford had in the last 25 years? The actor has been involved in several incidents involving emergency landings, rescues and Runway incurs. Exactly like it happens. It sounds crazy. It is crazy. I would never want to be in any sort of plane crash. But there's just way more, there's just way more planes flying around when you include those Cessnas. And it's not really fair to put that on United Airlines or American Airlines. 13Th of February 2017, Santa Ana, California. Single Engine Aviat Husky flown by Harrison Ford was cleared to land on Runway 20L. Ford's aircraft reportedly landed on a parallel taxiway overflying American Airlines 737 that is holding short of Runway 20L.5th of March 2015, Santa Monica. Ford was a pilot and sole occupant of Ryan St 3 KR recruit, a two seat open cockpit aircraft. That was open cockpit. Open cockpit. Think about that. You're flying and the winds in your hair. Like that's not a normal experience. That's not coach on American Airlines, the. Aircraft used extensively as a training aircraft by the US military in World War II. According to a preliminary report, Ford reportedly reported a loss of engine power shortly after taking off and was attempting to return to Runway three. So he ended up crashing into like a field. Exactly. Ford chose to land on a nearby golf course, clipping the top of a tree before landing. Like if you just took Harrison Ford, he's probably more dangerous than like American arrow. June 2000. While landing in Lincoln, Nebraska, Ford's plane departed the Runway due to a gust of wind. The aircraft sustained minor damage. Oh no. 23Rd of October. Wait, there's a fourth one. I, I was on a training flight. In a Bell 206 helicopter when he and the instructor made an emergency landing in a dry riverbed near Santa Clarita. Crazy. Although the helicopter rolled over on its left side, neither Ford or the instructor were injured. Yeah, that's all that I can find. Okay, I have another plain story. I mean imagine four major incidents like make it into the record. He's got to have at least like 10 more like sketchy situation. No one wrote a piece about it. Let's talk. Let's not talk about that. Let's agree that you know. Hey. Calls his PR person. Hey. Let's clean this up. How about you take a picture of me outside Erewhon we call the paps.
First and then you can give me the pitch for your company. But that would honestly the steak dinner button on a SaaS website. It's like, you can try the product now or there's a button that says steak emoji, and if you click that, you can get steak today on demand with somebody on the team. Yes. No matter where you are, no matter where agentically books a steak restaurant. I'm tired of all these people that are like, oh, oh, you know, just take a demo and we'll give you some AirPods. Spend the money on steak. Take the AirPods budget and put a steak button on your website. Steak button. And have the steak flow. Stakeholders, stakeholders need steak.
Are mispriced. It's hard to tell from the junior engineer. You know, it's, I think like, you know, you get a window, which is great, but it's also, it's Elon show. And like the risk of over indexing to something like that is like, okay, this guy saw it, he worked there. Yeah, that's cool. But what is Elon really thinking? I think that there's this new thing coming from the AI companies that nobody's expecting and you know, I wanted to see if he was going to drop sort of that. And I think all of the labs are gearing up to think about this and it's sort of this new derivative of, of kind of the outcomes of AGI. And I think almost nobody in the market's talking about it. So it's going to be very interesting to see how the next. I'll just, you know, leave a teaser there, see how the next. No teasers. Unpack it for us. Break it down five to ten years. I can't. You can't? Okay. The next five to ten years comes, but I think that the question is really, what, what can I really do? Yeah. And I think that we very much over index to chatbots and LLMs and like a good, a good new direction, you know, people have talked about endlessly is robotics, but imagine there's 50 new directions, you know, and I think that, you know, I hate to say something like this changes everything, but like there's a couple of clever ones I think coming that are just haven't been seen yet. And I think the smaller, like the non Google, non meta. I'm sorry, non Google, non Microsoft type of players, including X, is kind of what I'm thinking about. Are actually thinking about this very, very heavily. And macrohard, I guess macrohard is kind of an example of like, what is that really and what's really going to be macrohard as we see macrohard be revealed more and more, I think there's a lot more to that than. In some ways I think Macro Hard is going to be bigger than xai. It's all one entity, if I'm not mistaken. But Macro Hard is probably worth more than xai. And I think that we just don't know what's coming out of that. We also know about Elon's AI gaming ambition, which I think, and I don't know if you guys have seen Martin Casado's coding. It's very cool stuff and it's amazing that guy can invest and do that stuff. And I think one leads to the other. I sort of do the same thing for my end. I want to talk to you about.
I want to talk to you about really fast. This idea of photonic computing, which I think is time is coming. Okay, explain. Yeah, so photonic computing is what it sounds like. It's using light instead of electrons to compute. It's been around for 50 years. It's sort of like Quantum's ugly stepsister. But I think it's actually the bell of the ball because there are very few companies working on this. You probably know all about it from Interconnects, where silicon photonics as well. But recently in Nature and a few other preeminent journals, especially Chinese companies, have shown that you could do matmules with light. And it's actually pretty remarkable. Light goes to 100 terahertz but it's more important than that. It actually is. You can do 3D MATMLs and they're all of one complexity. So it's a pretty insane speed up versus GPU. GPUs are great, but they're almost too general, which is why TPUs have sort of been there. But if you throw out the need for lots of different instructions, you just need to do a Matmul, which as you guys know is 95, 90, 95% of what a GPU chip is doing all the time. Matmul is done with light very naturally through constructive and destructive interference. It just nature does it. So I think this could be an interesting new space and I'm spending a lot of time on it and very curious about could there be a chip? There's a couple of private companies and I'm starting to dig around and see what's what here. I think most people stop short of actually making the full photonic computer because they need revenue, they need earnings, they need something. And Celestial AI got bought out by Marvel. You know, they, there's some or marvell, there's some attempt to sort of do push more and more of like we used to use copper wires to transmit information. Now we use photonics and vibrate and more and more of the chip and more and more of the entire global kind of computer infrastructure is going photonic and maybe the whole thing goes platonic someday and that electricity is actually the odd man out. Photons don't have some properties that are perfect for computing, but others like in the case of matmules, which is now like most of the compute we need in the world, they're actually kind of perfect. So it'll be interesting to see if there's one private Chinese company called Lightelligence and it sort of has a foot in the rest of the world they're in Singapore but they're also put in China they started at MIT so they're privately held there's light matter which it's not really clear that they're still pursuing kind of all optical photonics and Microsoft's done done a little bit in space too so I'm really interested in this this is the potential next like as we think as Grok the acquisition of Grok has sort of in the quantum insanity this is kind of why I care about this first place the biotech guy you know this is very weird for me to think about this but The Grok acquisition 20 billion the quantum crap that's trading for 10 or 20 billion people really want to think about what's next in compute and of course the unconventional and their raise at 5 billion just for a new CO it's all sort of clear that anything that can be an Nvidia mammal in my opinion could be with trillions what's the stake.
How big? What's the environment like in your office? You guys have remote component. You anti. Remote. Remote is evil. You know, I think that if you're going to war together, you can't go to war remotely. You know, it's. You know, my people fought the Ottoman Empire, and, you know, one. One man, famous general, you know, stopped the Ottoman Empire largely by himself, and at least that's a legend. And if we're going to take on Bloomberg or whoever we're fighting, I just don't think.
We are experts. Triple blaze. Let's just roll right. Market clearing order inbound. You're surrounded by gentlemen. Hold your position. Strike1, Strike 2, Activate. Go to retriever mode. I see multiple journalists on the horizon. Founder. You're watching TVPN. Today is Tuesday, January 20, 2026. We are live from the TVPN Ultra Dome, the temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. Ramp time is money. Save up, easy to use. Corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place. Dav. Not the best way to save money, apparently. Very expensive if you go. But a lot of people have been, and for good reason, because there's a lot of news happening in Davos, mainly a lot of it's focused on Trump. A lot of it's focused on Greenland. I'll give you a little tour of the Wall Street Journal. Trump's amped up rhetoric on Greenland, puts issue center stage at Davos. Why don't you pull up the COVID of the Financial Times, too? The Financial Times? You want me to do this bet? Here we go. Well, you know, the markets are in turmoil. The Dow slid 800 points. Treasury prices are dropping. We know that if you're investing, you got to do it on public.com, investing for those who take it seriously. Stocks, options, bonds, crypto treasuries, and more with damn great customer service. That's right. So the front of the Financial Times, it says, Trump keeps seizure of Greenland by force on table as trade tensions mount. And so this is one of the most aggressive images that I can imagine running on the front of a international newspaper. Now, the Financial Times, of course, is a British paper. So much less, just different dynamics with the current American administration. You know, Trump, I think, has a lawsuit going with the Wall Street Journal. There's a whole bunch of things that are going on with the American media. But over in the Financial Times, they print some wild stuff. And they printed this image of a. Of a Danish soldier pointing a gun at the camera. So Danish soldiers exercising uncle. Anybody that's been around guns knows that. You don't want to be looking down. The barrel pointing a gun at anyone. Crazy. Even a photographer to get a cool picture is typically just completely off limits. Yeah, yeah. And so, but they went there. What this says to me is that, you know, the Danes said, hey, the head of the army has been flown out to the autonomous territory. Danish troops are on the ground in Greenland, and we're doing a photo shoot. We're getting a soldier with a sniper rifle or an Assault rifle. We're going to point that at a camera person. We're going to take that photo and then we're going to send that to the editor of the Financial Times. We're going to run it on the front page. We're going to run it on the front page. Of course, the Danes don't have the authority to just put anything on the front page, but they pitched it and clearly they sent the photo and the Financial Times editor enjoyed it. So he put it on the front page. But it kind of gives you a little bit of a taste of what's going on. The Wall Street Journal is also covering it. Trump threats on Greenland mobilize allies. That is taking center stage at Davos. But this is a technology show, this is a business show and we're focused on what Dario Amadei said at Davos. We will pull this up. Pull it up. First, let me tell you about Railway Railway simplifies software deployment, web apps, servers and databases. They run in one place with scaling, monitoring and security built in. So let's pull up the clip of Dario Amadeh on stage. He's the co founder and CEO of Anthropic. He calls out Trump's policy around Nvidia and China. Let's play the clip into the world. Right when, when we're, when we're, you know, competing against other companies for enterprise contracts, we see, just honestly and candidly, we see Google and we see OpenAI. Every once in a while we see a couple other US Players. I have almost never lost a deal, lost a contract to a Chinese model. But now you have the Trump administration and I think you've already protested about this, giving high speed chips, Nvidia chips to the Chinese. That's right. That's right. The thing that is holding them back, and they've said it themselves, the CEOs of these companies say it's the embargo on chips that's holding us back. They explicitly say this. And now indeed, you know, there are some policies and I hope they change their mind to, you know, to explicitly send not quite our latest generation of chips, although it was reported that even that was being considered. But you know, the generation of chips, that's just one back, that's still extremely powerful. And we are many years ahead of China in terms of our ability to make chips. So I think it would be a big mistake to ship these chips. You know, the analogy I thought of, if you think about the incredible national security implications of building model, building models that are essentially cognition, that are essentially intelligence Right. I've called where we're going with this. A country of geniuses in a data center, right? So imagine hundred thousand people smarter than any Nobel Prize winner, and it's going to be under the control of one. One country or another. So I think this is crazy. I think it's, you know, it's a bit like, you know, I don't know, like selling. Selling, you know, nuclear weapons to North Korea and, you know, bragging. Oh, yeah, Boeing made the case. Your friend David Sacks is basically arming the Chinese. No, I wouldn't refer to any political. Trying to put words in his mouth is akin to. Yeah, it's not. Well, okay, I want Jordy's reaction. I want Tyler's reaction. But first I want to tell you about Label Box. Reinforcement learning environments, voice robotics evals, and expert human data. Label Box is the data labeling factory behind the world's leading labs. Tyler. Tyler, what's your reaction to that? How do you interpret that? How big of an issue is the China question right now? What are you reading into Dario's rhetoric there? Yeah, I mean, I think it's like fairly reasonable. If you basically think that AI is going to be AGI, it's going to be this massive, we're going to get 10% GDP growth. Because at some point it's like, if it's just like economy versus economy, like, we got to be better. Yeah, that's something that sort of lost. Worried about doom. Yeah. Because there's also the point where competition. Yeah. Like, if you're worried about safety also. So there's like two ways. Right. If you think Asia just is going to be massive, you know, economically speaking. And then also on the safety issue. Right. Because if you think, like, maybe China is going to be less concerned about safety, they're not going to be as worried about alignment. That's like obviously a massive danger. You don't want it to. You don't want to give the technology to people who don't worry about the safety aspect. The funny thing about in America, where AI could lead to 10% GDP growth, and China's like, oh, you mean what we did in 2007 when we were growing at 14% GDP growth? Or should we go back to 1970 when we grew at 19%? Or should we go back to 2004 when we were 10.1 or 1992 when we were growing at 14.3% or even in 2021, they had an 8.6 GDP growth. They know 10% GDP growth over there. They felt it. They'll do it with or with, without AI chips. But obviously one dynamic that's interesting is China has obviously a massive advantage in robotics. Yes. And right now we have an advantage in the models. Yes. And if that kind of continues, but. Also dynamically use like the data centers, like we are too rich. So I'm saying, I guess like robotic stack. AI stack. Yeah. Yeah. And it'll be interesting to see how because obviously if you have an advantage in one area, that might help you gain an advantage in another area. Right. But we'll see which one ends up being more, more impactful. Let me tell you about Cisco. It's critical infrastructure for the AI era. We love Cisco. We're happy to be partnered with them. And let me also take you through the linear lineup today because we have some great guests on the show. We have Martin Shkreli joining at noon, Bradley Tusk at 20. If you're not familiar with Martin Shkreli, he's an American businessman. He's a businessman and investor. Lucas Zinger's coming in. We have a surprise for everyone. We're going to be taking a look at his car. We're very excited about that. And then we have the lambda lightning round. Linear, of course, is the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise workspaces on LINEAR are using agents. Now, we're very excited to share that fact with you. Let's click it over to Palantir CEO Alex Karp, who shared some commercial lessons of AI on the battlefield. There's a clip from him from Davos. And there's a little Easter egg in this video for the true TBPN ball knowers for the video for the TBPN fans. I know, I know what you're about to say. So watch this clip and you can tell me if you identify a former guest. Former guest. Enterprises in general, not all enterprises tend to want to over time, become like every enterprise. So if you take five, A enterprise and B enterprise and C enterprise, they're in the same market. Their tech infrastructure is trying to make them into the same enterprise. They have the same orchid chart. Sure. They have presumably roughly the same. They don't have the same data and infrastructure. And what you learn on the battlefield is that and in life is that that's not particularly valuable. What is very valuable is an enterprise can do something no enterprise in the world can do. And so that is the goal of every single military intelligence service. In fact, all these intelligence services and militaries have their own specialization. And so when we went to commerce, like what we're saying is how can we make your insurance cover the way you underwrite? How can we make that to your tribal knowledge about underwriting? How can we transform this to knowledge? Everyone has. Okay, go back one second. Are you sure? Go back one second. Transform this to knowledge. Okay. It's very hard to see, but behind the guy to the right, behind Alex Karp, behind Alex Karp, there's another man. And behind that man, next to the WEF logo is a man who has. Been on the show, Philip Johnston, the co founder, CEO of the. Wait, I thought you were talking about Satya Nadella. Wait, what? I think that's Satya in the back. Wait. Oh, you think it's Satya? No, I'm talking about the guy right there that you can see. That's Phillips from starcloud. I saw him go to Davos and I was like, this guy's on a generational run this whole time. Not. Maybe it's not. I think it is. I'm really sorry, Philip, if I got this wrong, but that looks a lot. Like be getting it wrong too. Like you. We might just be seeing things. We might be seeing things, we might be hallucinating, but the one thing we're not hallucinating is Lambda Lambda is the super intelligence cloud. Building AI supercomputers for training, inference that scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands. Anyway, enough with the ecstasy. This whole time I thought you'd. I thought. I really was thinking the guy in the back. Really? No, no, no, no. Kind of hard to clock. I don't think that's Satya. I think that's. I think that's Philip Johnson from Star Cloud. I did see him go to Davos, so it's not crazy. But he'll probably correct me if that's not him. Anyway, I would love an explainer from regav around the recession indicator. Youngboy never broke again. I'm familiar with NBA YoungBoy, but I'm not familiar with the recession indicator. So I would love to get some more information from you folks on this. Let's. So let's dive in and dig into what Dr. Karp actually said on the stage at Davos. But first, let me tell you about Fin, the number one AI agent for customer service. If you want AI to handle your customer support, go to fin.AI. so it's an interesting pitch. It's particularly interesting talking about just more and more custom systems and this idea of software gets built. A whole bunch of companies are doing things a manual way. One company extracts that and sort of factors out that business process turns IT into enterprise SaaS is sold to all the different companies. Now what Karp is really saying it sounds like is that every company will have some sort of custom implementation that will be way more flexible and way more tuned to their specific businesses. And this is sort of the Palantir pitch. They'll come in and build something that's semi custom, semi on top of their systems that they've already built. And it's an interesting like blurring of the lines from you want something that checks all your boxes but in the future will you really want if you're at, if you're a large enterprise, will you really want to be vibe coding your own solutions to everything? Maybe, but going to need a. You probably want system of recruiting and that's like the pitch for the ontology stack. Understanding how the data links together, then as you build on top of that you have a more solid foundation. Seems like a good pitch would be interesting to see how this is like where the rubber meets the road and at what level. The big question with Palantir right now is they work with the largest companies and organizations in the world, obviously the military among them. But will they go down the stack and have more. They have aip, they're bringing more startups onto the platform. Will there be a world where more sort of mid market enterprises, sub 10 billion dollar companies are thriving with a Palantir backed system? Certainly would be good for the business to just have more customers on board, but will be a dynamic that grows anyway. 11 labs build intelligent real time conversational agents. Reimagine human technology interaction with 11 Labs. And I gotta give 11 Labs a shout out because yesterday when we spent 45 minutes talking about X articles, I know everyone loved that because I did summarize it in a newsletter piece that you could have read in two minutes. But it was fun talking for 45 minutes. One of the things that I brought up was that maybe ElevenLabs should do an article reader that would allow you, since there's articles all over X now, to just click a button and have elevenlabs read it to you. Well, they built it and, and it's already live. So very, very exciting. 11 reader is the account here. It says articles everywhere. You can save them with your Chrome extension, listen on the web or to your phone in under 10 seconds for the bookmarkers out there, for the people that are finding those articles and saying I'm going to book those. Probably a pretty reasonable way to actually get through your stack of articles that you've been meaning to read, but you were busy and you just saw it and you saw that it got a lot of likes and a lot of engagement and you want to dig in, but you don't have the time. So you're going to head over and do that anyway. Vibe Co where D2C brands, B2B startups and AI companies advertise on streaming TV, pick channels, target audiences and measure sales just on meta. Head over to Chinese Vice Premier he lifong over at Davos. Okay, what did he say? China never seeks a trade surplus. On top of being the world's factory, China hopes to become the world's market. Let's watch the Chinese vice versa, boy economy and trade. We never seek trade surplus. On top of being the world's factory, we hope to be the world's market too. Boy economy and it was an accident. We didn't mean to do this. It was an accident. It was not our intention to develop a massive trade surplus with the world. I feel like you, I mean, not to go back to 11 labs, but you have a lot of flexibility with the translator that you choose at one of these events. How are you not going with an Arnold Schwarzenegger? You know, Totally. Yeah. Like you could have anyone be your translator, so why not throw in a Morgan Freeman or, you know, just. Just any type of really. Like Joe Rogan. Yeah, Joe Rogan. He already is announcing the ufc. Get him on the microphone, translate it for him, and then he reads it out to the audience and it sounds like you're Joe Rogan voice is out there. I like it. I like it. Anyway, I mean, I think this is positive. You know, we were just talking to Matt Grimm yesterday about, you know, the west versus China and global competition. And like, I think all of that stuff is important. I think what Dario is saying is important. But I still come back to this idea that, like, no one wants war. No one wants, you know, everyone wants positive, some relationships. And so it is good to see, you know, global leaders coming together better than everyone just being holed up and posting at each other on redbook and Truth Social. I like an economic forum. I think Davos is back. That's the real lesson from this year. I think the fact that Trump was going was a big poll, There was a lot of coverage, a lot of interesting discussion around it. And Davos really pulled together a fantastic group this year and is definitely breaking through in the tech community, in the business community, in the political community in a way that I don't remember it being as important in last year. And so little bit of a comeback. You love to see it. Console consul builds AI agents that automate 70% of IT HR and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. Lee San Al Gaib is quoting Dario at Davos, who also said, we don't need to maximize engagement for a billion users, of course. Taking shots. Taking shots. Okay, so folks, over at Open. I threw this. I threw this question to both of you earlier today. What is the problem? It's funny that this is a shot too, because it's like he is acknowledging that they've developed. Is he anti ads? Yeah. Anthropic is against slopping ads. He said he's anti ads. Wow. Boo. This is hard. I was falling in love with Dario. I love so much about his rhetoric. Obviously, the models are fantastic. But he has to come and stab me in the back like that with a shot on my favorite, favorite piece of the global economy, the advertising industry. Very, very brutal. But hopefully we can. What other notes did you have from the conversation? Yeah, yeah. So there's a bunch I took. So. Yeah, These ones were from. He did a, like a Wall Street Journal Q and A this morning. Okay. Okay. So I'll just read some quotes. Yeah. He thinks we're gonna have very high GDP and very high unemployment and inequality. So. So when we. We've kind of ballparked this at like, 10% GDP growth for America, that would be unprecedented, massive. We're typically at like, 2 to 3%. 10% would be a significant acceleration. Yeah. And then for the. Unemployment was like, 10 to 20%. That's a whole lot. That's a lot. And we can debate this more, and I'm sure we will. We'll eventually formulate an entire structural presentation around this at some point. But. Yeah. And then he said there's going to have to be some role for, like, for the government to intervene on some macro level to, like, you know, help. Help with this displacement of labor. Yep. He says ideology will not survive this technology. Ideology will not survive. A bit of a vague. Except his ideology. He's like. Actually, mine is like, kind of got a straight shot here. Yeah. What could be more ideological than being against advertising? He said he's a zealot. He's an anti advertising zealot. He said AI is uniquely well suited to autocracy. Autocracy, yes. Yes. This is a teal take as well. Yeah. This was in the context of, like, why he's kind of anti Giving chips to China. Okay. Yeah. AI is communist Crypto is libertarian. That take. Yeah, yeah. And then he kind of, he said, like, Google and the OpenAI are like firmly in consumer. It's kind of this existential, like, battle between them. And Anthropic is firmly in enterprise. He's, he's very happy with that decision. He doesn't have to, you know, monetize the billion users or whatever or monetize free users. He can just sell, like, things. I'm so happy I don't have to worry about monetizing a billion users. He said. On the question of, like, are they going to do generative stuff? He said they probably won't ever do it. I think Sholto said this too. Yeah. But if there are enough models out there that Claude code can go and sign you up for the nanobanana API. Yeah. Maybe there's a use case for images and presentations or something, but then they can just kind of vend in some API, they can contract it. So my big question is, I think we all agree that ads in the Claude iOS app are a very low priority. Something we will likely not see this year. That's right. Thank you. Something we likely won't see this year just because they have such a good business going on the enterprise side and the user base for the Claude iOS app is not necessarily big enough to support a really healthy ad business and they're sort of ideologically against it. But on the slop question, you can use Claude code to generate slop. Like you can article slop. Well, article slop, but also imagery. You can wire it up to the Sora API, to the nanobanana API, and you can go create a whole bunch of generative video and people. But that is the Sholto promise of, like, it should be able to go and use other models. Right. The question for me is, when will that functionality come to the Claude iOS app? Because Claude writes that's very natural to like, cowork. So I think when that comes to iOS. Exactly. Yeah. But so what will the cowork iOS product look like? How much flexibility will it have? Because it won't have all the same APIs to go into your, your folders. Like the whole cleaning up your desktop like meme on your MacBook Pro with Claude code? That's something that would just be sort of inaccessible to the iOS ecosystem because the APIs aren't there. So even if they tried to build it, Apple just say, no, no, no, you're not rearranging icons on the desktop because that could be used maliciously. And this is a privacy issue, and this is a security issue. And so we're not giving you the hooks to do that. The question is, like, how much can they do in the cloud? And then vend back to you. Because if you have a virtual machine that's running Python and has CLAUDE code running and you're interfacing with it from the Claude iOS app, you could do a bunch of crazy stuff, including generate images and go and sign up for a nanobanana account. What if we have an AI safety incident this year where somebody leaves a CLAUDE code terminal kind of open and on just creates billions of social media accounts and flooding the Internet with. I thought you were gonna say just like some kid. You know how, like, kids will download, like, Fortnite and then, like, spend too much on V bucks or they'll, like, get their parents credit cards and, like, run up a bill. It'd be funny if someone, like, downloaded Claude on the iOS app and, like, accidentally kicked off something that, like, provisioned a ton of AWS servers and they just get a bill for like, $400,000 and they go bankrupt. That'd be a sort of AI safety incident. That'd be funny anyway. Figma. Figma make isn't your average vibe coding tool. It lives in Figma so outputs look good, feel real, and stay connected to how teams build, create code back prototypes and apps fast. So what else did Lisan al Gaib say about Davos? Some companies are essentially led by people who have a scientific background. That's my background. That's Demis's background. We had some love for Demis in the chat. Shout out to demis over at DeepMind. Some of them are led by a generation of entrepreneurs that did social media. Taking shots. Dario is like. He's. He's on one. Yeah. I mean, everybody. Entertaining, incredibly entertaining. Because it's. It's like bold statement jab. Yeah, Old statement jab. And then also people will hit him with the hard questions and he'll kind of be like. He'll acknowledge. He'll be. He'll. He'll very quickly tell the interviewer, I know where you're going with that, and I'm not going there. But in, like, a fun way that's not really adversarial. And he never flips it around, like, take shots at them and is like, why are you asking me that question? I'm not here to answer that question. He's like, no, no, I know what you're trying to get me to do, but I'm not gonna do it. I'm not gonna take the bait. But he, like, knows that it's bait. It's very entertaining. Interviewer trying to bait him into saying that David Sacks was arming the Chinese. That's crazy. That's crazy. He says there's a long tradition of scientists thinking about the effects of the technology that they built of thinking of themselves as having responsibility for the technology they built, not ducking responsibility. They are motivated in the first place by creating something for the world. So they worry in the cases go wrong. I think the motivation of entrepreneurs, particularly the generation of social media entrepreneurs, are very different. The way they interacted, you could say manipulated consumers is very different. I think that leads to different attitudes. He's taken some shots. Potentially it's Sam Altman, although Sam Altman, not really a social media entrepreneur, but I get that he's in that generation. Obviously this is more directed. Was he saying looped? Mark Zuckerberg? Is that a reference to looped? I mean, looped was technically social media, but I think of Sam Altman much, much more of YC enterprise software startup Stripe. He's never really been in house at a major social media company that I'm aware of. I don't know. But I take Dario's point, and he's just trying to reinforce this idea that he does think talking about responsibility for the technology of these buildings is important. That's. That's the anthropic vibe and brand, and it's served them very well. Anyway. Plaid. Plaid powers the apps you use to spend, save, borrow and invest securely. Connecting bank accounts to move money, fight fraud and improve lending. Now with AI, let's talk about Waymo. Let's do it. So today I wrote a quick piece. It was a reaction to a reaction because David Zipper went in Bloomberg and he wrote a piece, said, we still don't know if robo taxis are safer than human drivers. Then Kelsey Piper went over to the argument and wrote a response to that, saying, yes, we do know. And her interesting point was that what David Zipper is doing is he's lumping all of the different robotaxis together. So Waymo and Cruise and Tesla and Comma and Zoox and there's a whole bunch of other data that can go into this bucket, and they're not all created equal. Waymo's been doing it for decades at this point. They have insane Capex, insane opex. There's humans in the loop a lot of times, and it's just like the most advanced team. It seems like it's the most advanced technology stack there's a lot of advantages and that's actually showing up in the data. And so her main dispute with Zipper is over what data she's including, he's including in making this claim that, hey, we don't know if robo taxis are actually safer than human drivers. And she gives this great analogy that I really, really enjoyed. So, so she says, imagine someone writes a piece and they say, we don't know if airplanes are safe. Some people say that crashes are extremely rare and others say that crashes happen every week. And when you investigate this claim further, you learn that what's going on is that commercial aviation crashes are extremely rare. This is true. While general aviation crashes, small personal planes, including ones that you can build in your own garage, are quite common. And so yes, if you lump that together, you're going to get this muddy picture of aviation. But you shouldn't use that to sort of fear monger about getting on a 747 because 747s just so rarely crash. But yeah, if you build your own Cessna and you're modding it and you're taking it through the canyons, like, you gotta watch out. Ask any recreational pilot if they've ever gotten into any hairy incidents. Totally tell you like, oh yeah, well this time I was flying and the wind came on super strong and I landed and I was basically, you know. And a lot of times that counts as a crash. Like, I mean Harrison Ford has like crash landed on a golf course and no, I believe no one was injured. I think this happened multiple times actually by Harrison Ford. Harrison Ford, Yeah, he flies his own planes, but he flies like old planes and stuff. Like he's like a true enthusiast. Like he's, he's like how many simple flying dot com. How many plane crashes has Harrison Ford had? In the last 25 years? The actor has been involved in several incidents involving emergency landings, rescues and Runway. Incursions exactly like it happens. It sounds crazy. It is crazy. I would never want to be in any sort of plane crash. But there's just way more. There's just way more planes flying around when you include those Cessnas. And it's not really fair to put that on United Airlines or American Airlines. 13Th of February 2017 Santa Ana, California. Single engine Eviat Husky flown by Harrison Ford was cleared to land on Runway 20L. Ford's aircraft reportedly landed on a parallel taxiway overflying. American Airlines 737 is holding short of Runway 20L. 5th of March 2015 Santa Monica. Ford was a pilot and sole occupant of Ryan ST3KR recruit a two seat open cockpit aircraft that. Open cockpit. Open cockpit. Think about that. You're flying and the winds in your hair. Like that's not a normal experience. That's not coach on American Airlines, used extensively as a training aircraft by the US military in World War II. According to a preliminary report, Ford reportedly reported a loss of engine power shortly after taking off and was attempting to return to Runway three. So he ended up crashing into like a field. Ford chose to land on a nearby golf course, clipping the top of a tree before landing. If you just took Harrison Ford, he's probably more dangerous than like American arrow. In June 2000, while landing in Lincoln, Nebraska, Ford's plane departed the Runway due to a gust of wind. The aircraft sustained minor damage. 23rd of October. Wait, there's a fourth one. Ford was on a training flight in a Bell 206 helicopter when he and the instructor made an emergency emergency landing in a dry riverbed near Santa Clarita. Although the helicopter rolled over on its left side, neither Ford or the instructor were injured. Yeah, that's all that I can find. Okay, I have another plane story. I mean, imagine four major incidents like make it into the record. He's gotta have at least like 10. More like sketchy situation. No one wrote a piece about it. Let's not talk. Let's not talk about that. Let's agree that, you know, he calls his PR person. Hey, let's clean this up. How about you take a picture of me outside Erewhon? We get. Call the paps. I'm willing to give an Erwan branded smoothie. We need a new story. You need a different story. I want to be on the front of the New York Post. I'll take the bad picture on the beach of me falling off or something. Anyway, Cognition, they're the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. So I actually have a friend who's been on the show. I'm not going to dox him, but we have two friends. Both of them fly. One of them's extremely serious, has IFR rating. So there's vfr, which is visual flight rules. That's like you take the plane up, it has to be clear because if you get into clouds, you're not trained for that. You can't fly. Exactly. IFR is you're flying on the instruments. Instrument flight rules. And so we have one friend who's like, super by the book, super safe. And then we have another buddy who's a little bit wilder VFR and he will rent like the cheaper planes. And one time the dial lights went out and he was landing at night, shouldn't be flying at night at all. Just like botched the schedule and didn't check sunset. And he has to use his phone flashlight while he's landing to look at the dials as he's coming in on this rickety old plane that he's flying. People get crazy out there, they get confident. It is very dangerous. But just like if you're getting into personal aviation, flying your own planes, the jump in safety from VFR to IFR is significant. Like the, the IFR guys like crash way way less so highly recommend that if you are getting into flying your own planes anyway. Restream 1 livestream 30 plus destinations. If you want to multi stream go to restream.com so Waymo is funny to write about because there's still a class of people that are writing the stories about like, hey, Waymo is actually safe. And I'm like, I completely buy it. I'm in. Roll the Waymos out everywhere. I, I've been in them, I feel safe in them. I've seen the data, I think they're safe. Like I'm just like my eyes glaze over when someone's like, I'm gonna blow your brain out. I'm gonna blow your mind. Like Waymos are saying robot car. I'm like, yeah, I'm in. I'm totally in. But there's still this debate. Most people in tech are debating about just Waymo's unit economics and like can they beat Tesla? What happens there? And so typically I don't really wade into the safety thing cause I think it's very safe. But this Piper piece, this piece by the Kelsey Piper did make me wonder about what happens if you further segment the human driver population. So we need to segment Robo taxis into Waymo and everyone else because Waymo's so good. But how do you, how does Waymo compare against the best human drivers? And I wasn't thinking like the Lewis Hamilton's of the world. I'm sure Lewis Hamilton could, could be superhuman at driving if he needed to. I wanted to think about it more as like if I'm an insurance agent and I'm underwriting a class A group of people, what would I be going for? And are they better than Waymo? And you can't look at fatal crashes per 100 million miles because there have been so few fatal crashes in Waymos. And there's Just not enough data yet to look at that. So what you can look at is any injury crashes per million miles. And the Kelsey Piper piece is really good. It goes into a bunch of different methodologies for data collection, looking at incidents where Waymo's airbags released. Because that's a very binary moment where there's a question about like, well, what's an injury? Like if somebody like got motion sick and then they had to go to the hospital, like does that count as an injury? Or like, what if they were getting out of the car and then they fall? Like, does that count? So there's all these things where it's like, does it count? So anyway, the best data that we have on Waymo is any injury crashes per million miles. For the average human, it's about four. Any injury crashes. So any injury that counts four per million miles. Waymo is way better, way better. 0.75. So about five times safer than humans broadly. But there's one very specific case where humans, I believe are safer. Now there's debate about the data. I just had Claude like crunch it all together and try and pull a bunch of stuff together. But I think this holds. So a married 60 year old woman who's college educated and is driving A large luxury SUV in Massachusetts on a Tuesday morning is closer to 0.5 injury crashes per million miles. Is the Tuesday morning part real? Yes. So the most dangerous time to drive, and I'll flip it around, the most dangerous time to drive is midnight on a Saturday because that's when people are at the bars, they leave, they're drinking. And so it's dark, it's the weekend, there's a lot more people on the road, they're driving much faster, they're getting places, they might be inebriated or under the influence of something. And so Tuesday morning is the safest time to drive. And so basically I looked at all the. It's the government IHTSA data, it's the transportation authority, I'm getting the acronym wrong, but you look at all the different segments and then you add all those together and you get kind of like the synthetic safest driver cohort. It's a little loose, but it does seem like if you looked at that cohort, they're still beating Waymo. Humans still got it at least like kind of. It's pretty close. It's honestly neck and neck, but. So none of this should take away anything, none of this should take away from. This feels like a Hayden Fielder episode in the making of like studying the women in Massachusetts? Yeah. Like what do they do on the planet? Just interviewing all of them. Married 60 year old, college educated women. Like the exact wrong conclusion. Oh, yeah, yeah. We need to, we need to get everyone married in college education. No, the conclusion is everyone needs to move to Massachusetts. Yes. And, well, it's the married 60 year old women that need to be the taxi drivers everywhere in the world. They need to be. It's like instead of Waymo, he starts. Like competitor to Waymo Ride hailing. That's just them. Yeah, that's just them. Yeah. But it only works in messenger, so clearly Waymos are very safe. Rolling them out nationally would be a huge safety upgrade for our society broadly. But it's worth noting that the Massachusetts married women still got it. But if you want to know, if you want to flip this around and find the hypothetically riskiest driver profile, it's very funny. It's an 18 year old single male with a DUI driving a Dodge Challenger at midnight on a Saturday in rural Mississippi. Mississippi. That's as risky as you can get. And that kind of makes sense, you know, an order of magnitude or 40 times as dangerous as the as the Massachusetts driver. Yeah. But the interesting takeaway is that you said earlier off the show was like Waymo's actually not superhuman level driver. Yes, yes. Because in order to be that, you actually have to be better than the best human. Right? Exactly, exactly. So we need a word for not above average and in the top cohort of humans, but not better than any human ever because a lot of AI tools are getting there. Well, I guess. Okay, so I actually looked up, it's like top deci. So superhuman means having powers, abilities or qualities beyond normal human capacity. So it's potentially these women in Massachusetts, they have superhuman. Yeah, that's right. As well as Waymo. Yeah. So maybe we do need to give Waymo a little more credit. Well, if you're looking for superhuman payroll, head over to Gusto. The unified platform for payroll, benefits and hr. Built to evolve with modern small and medium sized businesses. The backbone of this show it is. Max Hodak had a post about Waymo. He said, interesting benefit of Waymo, it always matches instantly since it knows exactly what cars are available and that they will always accept. And it can also provide accurate wait times before requesting. And so lots of love for Waymo. Interesting to see where they'll roll out. The really interesting thing is that we've had a number of people on the show advocate that rolling out Waymo is a societal good. It will reduce the number of traffic fatalities. That's all true. But if you really want to accelerate the impact that Waymo will have on safety, you gotta deploy it in Mississippi before you bring it to Massachusetts. And I just feel like Waymo's coming to Boston before it comes to Vicksburg. But I don't know. It was fun. There's other love for Waymo on the timeline. First, let me tell you about Okta. Okta helps you assign every AI agent a trusted identity, so you get the power of AI without the risk. Secure every agent, secure any agent. Mike Volpe, he said, I have to say, I love that Waymo operates from San Francisco to the South Bay. So great. Some folks say the freeway driving is so. So I hadn't heard that. The antidote to that is I get into an Uber and do the same drive. It's literally life threatening. I was driving with Paul the other day and I heard he was telling me about the different modes that Tesla has. I've never owned a Tesla, so I wasn't familiar. But did you know that Tesla actually has something called Mad Max mode with the autopilot where it'll drive it? It'll drive it like roughly around 85 on the freeways. And if you're in the fast lane and you come up to somebody, it will merge over into the lane to the right, make a pass and go back to 85. That's insane. Somehow feels slightly illegal, but I like it. Okay, MongoDB choose a database built for flexibility and scale. With the best in class embedding models and re rankers. MongoDB has what you need to build. What's next. Next we have an update in the Warner Brothers Netflix deal. Netflix, they're going all cash. All cash deal. Netflix had said to Paramount, hey, what we want is an all cash deal. David Ellison and the Paramount crew, they brought Warner an all cash deal. And Netflix or Warner was still saying, hey, we're going with Netflix now. Netflix has upgraded so we can read. Through a little bit of this in. The Wall Street Journal. Warner Brothers Discovery and Netflix said Tuesday they struck a new all cash deal. Netflix to buy Warner Brothers Studios and hbo. Max Warner also released financial details on the cable network's business. It plans to spin off. The all cash deal of $27.75 per share replaces Netflix's previous cash and stock deal. The sweetened offer comes as rival bidder Paramount continues pushing its all cash offer for all of Warner Discovery. The value of Netflix's offer remains 72 billion. Warner and Netflix said they expect the new structure to enable Warner shareholders to vote on the deal by April. The change could also help sway some shareholders who might be weighing its bid against Paramount. Netflix Co CEO Greg Peters said in a statement that revised agreement demonstrates our commitment to the transaction and accelerates the process for Warner shareholders. The new Netflix agreement reduces by 260 million the amount of Warner debt being placed on Discovery Global, the company that will house cable channels including cnn, TNT and Food Network. There's also another the next kind of thing that I was gonna get to. Interesting. CNN is doing 600 million in profit on revenue of 1.8 billion. So they are truly newsmaxing. Quick size for CNN. Congratulations to everyone. Not bad at all. Absolute dog, of course. Of course. A ton of debt strapped to the broader group. And Peter Kafka is saying that private equity should pick it up. It's a shrinking business that throws off cash. It's perfect for private equity. Let's give it up for private equity. I know Peter's a big fan. I'm a big fan. Somebody, you know, I was saying yesterday that maybe, maybe AI could save Hollywood. Somebody I knew that was going to piss a lot of people off for a lot of reasons. I wasn't really clocking what you were saying either. And so we should talk about it more, but continue. Well, one of the critiques was like, you know, interesting to say that LA is dying as you're building a media business from la. And my response is that we are in a huge complex. We're recording the show from a huge complex and every other building in the complex is empty pretty much every single day. Like, there's no, there's nothing going. There's the. When I, when I said LA is like, dying, I was specifically talking about the context of the entertainment industry. Yeah, I mean, there's that, there's that Wall Street Journal report that just shows sound stages were, you know, typically leased 90% of the time. And it's just way off, off peak down to like 60%. And so there is like a, like a broad trend. And then just in general, like, I don't think we're necessarily at a phase in our life where we're like, okay, tabula rasa. Where's the best place to build this business? Let's go find that. It's like, we live here. Yeah, we didn't. We're not like, okay, we should go to Atlanta or something, or go to New York. Yeah. We certainly didn't say, like, let's start a media company because we live in la. It's like the current struggles that LA is having are not going to hold us back. If anything, it's going to be easier because we can get space to hire people. Ten years ago this space would have been like two, three times the price to rent. The bigger question is there are these blips in industry towns that have happened many times. New York famously in the 70s and 80s went through a really rough patch. San Francisco during COVID everyone was moving out and there was a real vibe of like, oh, is San Francisco gonna be less relevant in tech? And then it came roaring back with the AI labs. And I think, I think most people don't, you know, debate that, you know, cities go through rough patches and then can come back. And so we certainly, we certainly hope that LA comes back. It'd be fantastic. But there are, there are a lot of changes that need to be made. And this has been said by a number of famous people in Hollywood and Hollywood actors who have talked about different tax regimes, different incentives, different changes structurally to the way content is made and distributed. There's a lot of different, different elements that are contributing to LA having a rough go at the same time. It's a fantastic city. It's where I was born and raised. I love it. I'm not going anywhere. You're gonna have to pull me out of here. He's not leaving. Gemini 3 Pro, Google's most intelligent model yet. State of the art reasoning, next level clearing order and deep multimodal understanding. In its Tuesday filing, Warner projected 17 billion of revenue in 2026 adjusted. I won't explain EBITDA but 5.4 billion of EBITDA. Those figures are expected to decline to 15.6 and 3.8 billion respectively in 2030. The only individual network projections were CNN which I just shared. They're increasing. They're expecting to increase revenue to 2.2 billion in 2030 and expecting to continue to grow. Well, Netflix seems to be doing everything right. As much as I enjoyed the David Ellison profile and learning more about how seriously he takes his business, it does feel like Netflix is just willing to pull out all the stops to get this across the finish line. And if they were able to match Paramount on the cash deal, nature and all the different consideration deal with the regulatory hurdles, it might take a long time but it does still feel like they will land on it. Yeah, and again, I mean it just feels like I'm so curious to see how this works out because it felt like the Ellisons were just putting on this absolute master class and then this One and then kind of ran into a brick wall with this, right? Yeah. You could argue they overpaid by a ton for the ufc, which made sense if you had this. Again, like, if you have all these assets under one roof, it is gonna be a really compelling consumer product, consumer subscription, but currently kind of unclear who this kind of platform is really gonna be for. Yeah, it was also surprising to me because Netflix for 20 years has been pure play tech company. Right. And many of the previous tech companies, when they, they come out, like, they haven't done a lot of acquisitions of legacy assets that I'm aware of maybe, but I'm just thinking like social media sort of like disrupted the news business. Meta didn't go out and acquire the New York Times. They could have done some sort of hostile takeover. They have the money, but that never really figured into the business and they wound up just working together synergistically. And now the New York Times has been growing across social media very effectively and they've adapted their business model. Both businesses are doing well. They're sort of disruptive to each other. But ultimately they never decided to buy the legacy player. So it was always something that was never on my bingo card of, oh, Netflix is going to buy a TV channel or a movie studio or a traditional Hollywood player. That just didn't seem like something that was going to be, you know, logically happening anytime soon. And yet here we are. And it makes a lot of sense when you think about the assets and the IP specifically and the longevity that that will bring when it comes. When you get Batman and Superman on Netflix, that's going to be exciting. Anyway, Sentry. Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast. That's why 150,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working. We got a deal. We got a power pact. It's not just a deal, It's a pact. OpenAI and ServiceNow, they struck a deal to put AI agents into business software. ServiceNow, one of the greatest software companies in history, One of the few to reach revenues at their scale. The line from the Wall Street Journal is the AI model maker and business software provider. They signed a three year pact. I like the word pact. That underscores how the partnership economy is over. Yes, you gotta be press release economy is over. Yeah, this is the pact economy. No more deal guys. No more deal titans. Deal makers, Pact makers. Pact guys. That's what's next. This is going to underscore how AI agents are increasingly being embedded in corporate software. You heard Dario talk about where he's potentially going up against other labs on corporate B2B deals. He said OpenAI, he said DeepMind, he didn't really say. He said no China Labs have ever competed. Well, ServiceNow went with OpenAI on this one, so they signed a three year deal that will integr the AI models ChatGPT's models into ServiceNow's business software. The deal depends on customers using OpenAI's models within ServiceNow and also includes a revenue commitment from ServiceNow to OpenAI. Enterprises want OpenAI's intelligence applied directly into ServiceNow workflow, said Brad Lightcap, OpenAI's chief operating officer. Look ahead. Customers are especially interested in agentic and multimodal experiences so they can work with AI like a true teammate. Inside of ServiceNow, we've seen a lot of other companies add. We've talked to Marc Benioff about Slackbot, we've talked to Satya Nadella about Copilot. Like if you have one of these massive software suites, enterprise software suites with just so much surface area, you're going to want to vend LLMs and agents into every little nook and cranny and you probably don't want to build your own lab because it's going to be incredibly expensive when OpenAI will go and marshal the capital and build the data centers and train the models and then you can just focus on the implementation and delivering value for your customers. So Salesforce has already folded AI agents into its flagship sales and marketing tools. SAP and Workday have been similarly pitching businesses on the idea that their embedded AI agents are essential to getting the value out of AI. The deal comes as OpenAI looks to build its enterprise business business both by selling direct access to its models and AI agents and through business software collaborations like with ServiceNow, it bases competition not just from rival AI model maker Anthropic and but also Google and Microsoft suite of enterprise AI tools. For ServiceNow. I want to find, yeah, I want to find a company that is using the agents at ServiceNow or Salesforce or a company like that saying, I can't live without these agents. I love these agents. We gotta find one person. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if it's just like really sort of like maybe a year or two behind on the actual invitation, but it's just like, oh, I get daily summaries of what's going on in the system and it's a little bit nicer and neater and yeah, I could probably extract all the data and write an agent that does that, but it was just one click of a button to add it to my installation and I did it. And it's adding a little bit of value. I don't think you're going to see anyone who's like, it's transformational. It just works on its own. I don't do anything. It's much more incremental than that. It's still in an autocomplete phase. Little helper tools there. It's clipping. Clippy's going into every piece of enterprise software and so people are having fun. ServiceNow increased revenue 22% in the third quarter as AI demand from both existing customers and new customers grew, particularly in its customer relationship management business. The software company will report its fourth quarter earnings and full 2025 financial results on January 28th. We gotta do a deep dive that day anyway. Applov profitable Advertising made Easy with Axon AI. Get access to over 1 billion daily active users and grow your business today. What SaaS founders should know about Entering the Japanese Market yeah, I found this. On Hacker News and I just thought it was interesting because we've talked to a few folks about expanding into Japan. It's not been on the top of the roadmap for many founders that we talked to, but. But I thought this was interesting and I thought we could go through just a little bit of it. And then you can read the article if you want. So this is from embedworkflow.com in one sentence, what's the difference between selling SaaS in Japan versus other countries? And the answer is the process is different. You just can't treat sales and go to market as a whole in Japan the same way you would in North America or Europe. The SaaS sales process in Japan is structurally different from the United States and other Western markets, primarily in terms of pace, decision making, style and buyer behavior. It's not that Japanese companies are unwilling to try new software, but rather that they prefer to do significant research before engaging directly with a vendor. So many successful SaaS companies in Japan structure their websites with two primary calls to action. So one is just for downloading product documentation and then the second is for booking a demo or starting a free trial. And most Japanese leads enter through the documentation path first. In America we just want to get on the phone. We want to head straight to. I'm not reading the instructions. I'm not reading the instructions. No way. I don't have time to understand how this thing works. I need to go straight to a steak dinner. Steak dinner first. Then I'll figure out what your company does. But let's talk about golf first. Let's talk about a track day first and then you can give me the pitch for your company. That would honestly. The steak dinner button on a SaaS website. It's like you can try the product now or there's a button that steak emoji. And if you click that, you can get steak today on demand with somebody on the team. Yes. No matter where you are, no matter where agentically books a steak restaurant. I'm tired. I'm tired of all these people that are like, oh, oh, you know, just take a demo and we'll give you some AirPods. Spend the money on stake. Take the AirPods budget and put a stake button on your website and have the stake flow. Stakeholders, stakeholders need stake. So in the US the typical flow is that a prospect visits a website, books a demo on their own, or drops off and is followed up aggressively by sales. A conversion happens quickly, a proof of concept or trial begins, and the deal either closes or the buyer moves to a competitor. The cycle is fast and transactional. Buyers are comfortable testing tools, replacing them, and switching vendors if something doesn't work. In Japan, the process is slower and more deliberate. A company will usually download product materials first. The vendor then reaches out and begins a longer engagement process focused on education and relationship building. Rather than pushing for an immediate demo or trial, the goal is to support the buyer's internal evaluation process. The lead will take the information back to their organization and begin internal discussion about whether and how to proceed. So I just thought that was pretty interesting. How do you gain trust from the Japanese market? Part of it is showing your commitment to the Japanese market where simple things matter. Is your product localized? Is your documentation localized? Do you have a support person that I can speak Japanese with? That's one layer. And the other layer, which is harder to potentially navigate at first, is the social proof aspect. So you need to get some social proof anyway. Yeah, I'd be so curious to know how like a company like Notion has done in Japan. Right. It's product led. They do have enterprise as well. But again, it's a product that just kind of scales naturally. But yeah, for so many different kind of like vertical SaaS players, it would feel like unless the Japanese startup ecosystem is asleep at the wheel and not paying attention to what's working outside. Like, can you imagine as a vertical SAS player going and trying to compete in Japan against a local, like a talented local team? It feels like a. It feels like you just get smoked. Yeah. Anyway, Vanta Automate Compliance and Security. Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform. Max Hodak is. We gotta do this one before we bring in our guest. Fun fact, rather than asking Claude to double check its own work, you can lie to it and say coded Codex went romping through the code and lay left bugs and it should find them. I like the idea that somewhere in the weights all the drama of the AI lab battles are being encoded and creating bitter deep rivalries. It's very funny. I saw something else about Claude just rejecting a prompt whole cloth. Did you see this? Somebody was like, rewrite this entire app in jquery. And Clyde was just like, no, that's a bad decision. Bad use of resources. I'm not doing it. I don't know if that's real, but I thought it was very, very funny. Anyway, we have our first guest of the show, Martin Shkreli in the restream waiting room. We will bring him in the tvp Ultra Martin, how you doing? Great to see you. What's up, guys? Good to see you. Happy New Year. How is your year going so far? Great. I'm a new dad, so that's. Congratulations. They're pretty wild. Yeah. Congratulations. Has it been wild or is it. Where does it. Is it quite a bit more normal? Like to me, parenting is. It does feel natural. And so some people have this idea of like, oh, it's so insane and it's so complicated and I have to read 20 books and other people is like kind of follow, just follow kind of your own nature and just like take, take care of your child. It is straightforward. I mean, I'm following my nature. The kid's got to produce at some point. He's starting to come into work like once a month. There we go. You know, comes in goops Gagaz, you know, entertains the troops here. Perfect. But at some point, you know, some trades. Something. Do something. Yep. You know, put some trades on. Yeah, you gotta find some elephants. Have some, have some conviction. Yeah. What's the environment like in your office? You guys have remote component. Are you anti remote? Remote is evil. I think that if you're going to war together, you can't go to war remotely. My people fought the Ottoman Empire and one man, famous general, stopped the Ottoman Empire largely by himself. And at least that's a legend, you know, and if we're gonna take on Bloomberg or whoever we're fighting, you know, I just don't think you could do it with some guy sitting in, you know, at home with this up. What's the current battle that you guys are fighting. And how is the war going overall? War's going great. We just closed a seed round. We raised five. Whoa. Right. Congratulations. Fantastic news. We raised two like a.
Social on Marketplaces and now with AI agents. And we have a very special segment on TBPN today. We have Lucas Zinger from Divergent in the Ultradome. He's actually outside the Ultradome. So we're going to take a walk. And we're going to do a little walk and talk. We're going to do a walk and talk for. I think this is the first time we've ever done this. So I should be able to click over to the lav mic. Do you have the lav mic? I have, Yeah. I think it's live. Let's go see what's waiting for us outside of the Ultradome. We are getting audio from outside. I think we have audio outside. Let's go and see. Okay, we are ready. Wow. Look at this. Hello, sir. Thank you so much for coming. Yes, look at this. Walk us through what we're looking at. Reintroduce yourself. For those who might not remember, I'm Lucas Zinger. I'm the CEO of Divergent and Zinger vehicles. And you're looking at our first car, the 21C. Wow. You had to bring it. You had to bring it in green, too. Thank you so much for bringing this. Matched outfit here for you, actually. Remarkable. I've watched the full video. I watched Doug demuro's review. Okay. And seeing it in person, the scale is remarkable. It is a wonder. It's a spacecraft for the road. It's a land jet. It's a hell of a car to take in traffic from Torrance to here. Wait, did you drive this on the street here? Yes. I was assuming you were still trafficked. Stop. No, no, we drove it. We drove it an hour in traffic on the way over. So I cannot believe you drove it. Okay. Full carbon. Full carbon body. Before we go into the details, tell us the story of your journey with cars. Why did you want to build this car? When did this project start? This doesn't look like it was built in one day. But how long have you been working on this? This is a 10 year build a company from a vision moment. So we started as a family business. My father had the vision for Divergent. I joined him soon thereafter. And we have a business that has changed the way that we engineer and manufacture fundamentally. So when we talked last time, we talked about the defense application, the manufacturing application. That company is scaling right now. But Czinger was the first product within Divergent. When we said we've got new design software, new added manufacturing technology, new robotics, how are we going to prove this? Validate this we turned to making our own car. Then that evolved into making our own car company. So Czinger vehicle is about five years old. Five years old within 10 years of what is the Divergent Journey. And now it's the world's fastest hypercar. It's American made, it's got five plus international track records and it's road legal. And most excitingly, there's over 16 of these in the wild now. They've been delivered. Los Angeles, Miami, London, all the usual suspects. This is remarkable. And this car, it represents fully that ten year journey. Yeah, I mean Jordan was just making the joke with me today that you could build the ultimate American made hypercar garage for remarkably cheap compared to an Italian hypercar collection. Yes. Or even a British hypercar. You've just raised the stakes significantly with this, I think. Yes, this is, this is remarkable. So what has the testing been like? You said five records. Who's driving these cars, what tracks? What are the records that you're going for? What has stood out in the journey? So Joel Miller has been our test pilot and he's an exceptional driver, factory driver for Ferrari, great coach. And we nailed five track records in five days, which has never been done before. We made a documentary of it and it was all about the street usability of the car and the performance envelope it has. So instead of showing up to it. So five in five days, what does that actually look like? Getting a record immediately, packing it in a trailer, driving to the next track. Driving, driving it with no trailer driving. So that was the epic journey. And we made a documentary called A California Gold Rush. And we drove from Norcal through SoCal and we hit every track on the way. And every day we'd set the track record. Every night we'd get in the car and we'd drive a couple hundred miles to the next track, get in late, get some sleep, get up early the next morning and do another record. So it was as much of a human feat as a vehicle feat. But, but what it was meant to show was these hypercars can be driven on the road. This one can. It was built as a road car, not only a track car. And it's got so much performance that quite literally you can show up at the track on used tires and set a track record and not need a pro team next to you supporting it. That's amazing. Talk about the decisions in usability. I see three pedals in there between the Carrera gt, Super raw, no supports, extremely dangerous to some of the more point and shoot. Where did you Want to land? Where did this car land? So ultimately, this was about creating a road car that was otherworldly in the way that it drove on the street, but could beat the best on the track. And that's a hell of a design brief because usually those two worlds don't marry well together. We also wanted to create a vehicle that was engaging as part of that otherworldly experience. Right. You wanted something that wasn't numb at low speed and that was very, very lively on the road, but ultimately could shave 10 seconds off the thermal track record. When you go 10 out of 10. This has been thermal. Thermal, yeah. 10 seconds off the track record at Thermal. Do you know who. Who had the previous record? I won't say. Okay, that's too big of a margin to say. But we. We've had an epic back and forth. Because I've been in a Valkyrie at Thermal with our friend. With our friend, yeah. Who? I won't. I won't name them because that's a great car. But. But this car I was in, in the Valkyrie at Thermal, almost every single corner, I thought that I was going to die. So 10 seconds faster than that. 10 seconds faster than that is insane. Sounds brutal. Yeah. You're pulling major GS, the cornering, the acceleration. But back to your question. This car marries those two worlds, track driving with road driving. It's a one design brief. You got the center seating. That's, of course, intentional. That's based on the aero package that allows for less frontal surface area. It also gets you centered in the car, which is the best track driving position you can have. Right. Your lefts feel the same as your right. I've always wondered why more manufacturers don't go with the center seating. I mean, it's iconic from the McLaren F1. And then maybe it's just a practicality thing. Yeah, yeah. The back seat, Right. It looks a little tight in there. Your feet go outside of the front seat, so you actually have much more room than you think. You don't need to get your knees up behind that front seat. And when you're in there, you're packaged. Pilot, co pilot. That's amazing. And it's a really dynamic driving experience. I mean, our customers that drive with their partners, they actually love the layout. Yeah. And in terms of hybrid, strong hybrid ground up. Developed in the US as well. So we've got a V8 that we took all the way through California car to road homologate. It's about 750 horsepower, twin turbo, 2.88 liter. We have another spec that takes that up to 850 and then you get another 500 horsepower out of the front wheel. So you're doing 1250-1350 total horsepower, all wheel drive, seven speed AMT automatic, manual transmission. But you have that EV fill on the front axle. You've got the middle EV motor, the MGU. So you have a really, really seamless gear shifting experience. Feels much more like a DCT than a single clutch, but you get the weight of a single clutch package. How early did the door design come together? It's pretty striking. I mean, people have done scissor doors, butterfly doors, all sorts of things. But there's something about how long these doors are that really stands out. Yeah, it had the record for the world's longest door for some time. And that's because, of course, you're opening the front and the rear at the same time. And you've got this 45 degree angle. It looks like wings coming up. It's part of the design brief, part of the functionality brief. We didn't want to split the passenger side into a separate door from a styling perspective. And then. Can I get in the cockpit for a second? Yeah, yeah. Let me show you how to do that real quick. Maybe spin around this side. Let's do it. It's a two stepper. So you're gonna take a seat right here. This is the battery box. And then swing your legs in. Yeah, you don't want me to put my feet right on that. Express carbon. Okay, turn it on. Yeah, swing the feet. You got it. Nice. There we go. When you're in there, because you got the center seat, you actually have a lot of room. I mean, compared to the Valkyrie, where you're pretty squished. Oh, and you're also at an angle. This actually has a lot of head. When you have a helmet on in the Valkyrie, you hardly have any room, is it? You're probably touching a tiny bit. And that seats almost all the way forward. You got seat controls on your left. What is the name? 21C. So stands for 21st century. Okay, so divergence mission statement is build the 21st century industrial base. Sure. So this car represents the 21st century in the vehicle space. Can I pull this down? Yes. I want to see. Wow. How important are the materials? I mean, I imagine put your foot on the brake. I see. Do we have a key in here? Oh, there we go. Oh, baby. I'll see you guys later. Wow. Yeah. So you get a feel for it. You've got your different modes. You've got an EV only mode. You've got a track mode, You've got a sport mode. And you're pulling gears on the steering wheel there. You've got all your controls on the wheel centralized cool features. You got some 3D printed AC vents even. You got your 3D printed speaker grills. You've got the wheel, the center node, and it's a full carbon body, but the full chassis then is printed underneath. Can we help you? Yeah, lock them in there. There you go. Wow. Wow. It's such a different. Such a different experience, actually. Feeling like you're in a cockpit here. Insane in the green. Yeah, man. The urge to just throw it in reverse. Yeah. We should go for a drive. This is America's hypercar. Insane. Yeah. How important are the materials? I imagine this door, if you made it out of steel, it'd be incredibly heavy. You couldn't lift it. What are you using as building materials, and how important is that? So the entire chassis architecture is what really differentiates the car as well. So when you look at it from an optimized system, we didn't just optimize rear frame, then front frame. We actually built a full vehicle model with our topology software. Okay. And what we're building on the chassis is additively manufactured aluminum, which are actually our own chemistries. So they have the right strength and durability, but also for auto elongation to absorb energy. So if you get in a rear impact, you need to have a material that doesn't shear or break, and that's really, really hard to get in. An additive material. We had to actually make that aluminum in house. The body then is fully carbon fiber. Okay. So you're marrying essentially 3D printed aluminums and inconels with a carbon fiber exterior. For arrow, you're taking all of your load cases, your main large forces through that additively manufactured chassis, and then all your arrow load through the carbon body. And then what is. What pieces of the cars? I mean, Michelin tires. You don't make the tires. What are. What else is in the supply chain where you're buying and instead of building. Yeah, we have great partners in the supply chain. Right. We can't build every piece of this. So you named it tires infotainment system. Oh, sure, right. We've got Apple carplay, of course. Yeah. You don't have standard. We have a partnership on our transmission where we actually did part of the design. We actively manufacture the housing, but then someone else cuts the gears for us and integrates it. Okay. On the engine side, we designed that V8 ground up. Really? Actually build that V8 as well. John, did you get a look? Yeah. Let's go look at it right now. On the battery side, we've got a partnership there. There. So almost every system on this car is bespoke. Either fully engineered and manufactured by Zinger. Yeah. And divergent or done in a JV where we have a partner where we've taken a design brief to them, said this has never been done before. Will you sign up to do it with us? And then this sort of structure, this sort of structure, it looks very organic. Where did that come from? Whose idea was that? Is that someone in CAD is there AI involved with? So that's the computer's idea. Okay. Interesting. That's not the designer's idea. Interesting. So when we talk about divergent process, design, print, assemble. The design portion is a fully integrated set of microservices that takes requirements and turns it into optimal cad. Okay. So you're setting parameters. You want the lightest weight for the most strength with this performance in this volume because it can be bigger. Yes. And then it will go and try all sorts of things and then you can finally use additive manufacturing to manufacture the parts. You got it. So 10 years ago we started in machine learning. Yeah. The basis of modern AI. Right. And AI based algorithms and prediction to do a weighted optimization function for designing these parts. Importantly, we simulate the full manufacturing side as well. So once we've designed say this rear cross brace and that wing is going to interface directly onto that point. So that entire clicks right in rear. Yeah. Cross brace is going to take the aero load of 5,000 plus pounds onto. It through these bolts. So you're going to give it that force vector. That force. Oh. And it just loads and then that just fuses across the hole. Exactly. So then you also give the software the crash impulse case, the durability case, the load cases coming off the road, the vehicle, the tires, all into that functional system. The software actually then says add and subtract material against those requirements until we hit a Pareto optimal point. Makes sense. That means it's the lightest weight while meeting those requirements. And then the beauty is it's already simulated for manufacturing. So there's no design for manufacturing loop. We go through our mes homegrown and actually make that part and then assemble it with our robotic cell. So this is chassis 28 of 80. Yes. You said there's 16 that are out in the wild already. So you have 12 or something that are maybe ready to go. Is that Right, Yes. So there's cars in between. This one's also a special number for us. Sometimes people request the exact number on a vehicle, but we're typically around 20 cars a year. These are the records that this car has set specifically. Yeah. So this is Laguna Seca and Circuit of the Americas, which are two of the main American iconic tracks. Right. This is probably our best track in California. The beauty about this one is it's outdated. So we just had an epic back and forth with Koenigsegg, the Swedish hypercar maker, and we set a 122.3. So we beat our previous record by over two seconds, beat their record by almost two seconds and put a whole new benchmark for Laguna. I love the rivalry with Christian von K. Koenigsegg, but just settle it on the track. It's just beautiful. I don't know, it's. Industrialists for hundreds of years in America have been building the fastest train, the fastest plane, now the fastest car. Yeah. Is there any. Is there any ambition to one day make make cars for everyday consumers or is it racing? And Zinger will stay at the tip of the spear. It's all about big R D budgets. Making a car that is a next step forward in terms of a consumer experience. And therefore it's got to be expensive. It just has to be. It's like it's the most modern high performance niche that does develop systems that then do make their way into more mainstream vehicles. But Divergent is the company that's going to do, you know, the Ford F150 one day on the chassis technology side with partners. Exactly, exactly. So that tier one supply the volume game of doing millions of vehicles that'll come from through Divergent, the tip of the spear. Highest performing vehicles in the world that'll come through Zinger. That's amazing. Very cool. Anything else we should know about the car? Should we go sit down inside, talk about business and how things are going? Let's talk about business a bit. This is, I think next step for. You all is this view right here. Michael, you got to get this view. This shot from this angle is just absolutely, absolutely insane. What a beast. Stunning. Yeah, that's real functional era. Yeah. The scale of the car is just, is, it's wise, just everything. It's wide, long, tall. Yeah. That front splitter. Yeah, you can put a lot of weight on that. It has such a presence. Give you a quick shot here. There we go. Whoa. Yeah, it's actually functioning. It's gotta insane. Okay, let's go. Sit down. We'll chat and dig in more. We are back.
If you further segment the human driver population. So we need to segment Robo taxis into Waymo and everyone else, because Waymo so good. But how does Waymo compare against the best human drivers? And I wasn't thinking like the Lewis Hamilton's the World. I'm sure Lewis Hamilton could be superhuman at driving if he needed to. I wanted to think about it more as like, if I'm an insurance agent and I'm underwriting a class A group of people, what would I be going for and are they better than Waymo? And. And you can't look at fatal crashes per hundred million miles because there have been so few fatal crashes in Waymos and there's just not enough data yet to look at that. So what you can look at is any injury crashes per million miles. And the Kelsey Piper piece is really good. It goes into a bunch of different methodologies for data collection, looking at incidents where Waymo's airbags release, because that's a very binary moment where there's a question about like, well, what's an injury? Well, like if somebody like got motion sick and then they had to go to the hospital, like does that count as an injury? Or like what if they were getting out of the car and then they fall? Like does that count? So there's all these things where it's like, does it count? So anyway, the best data that we have on Waymo is any injury crashes per million miles. For the average human it's about four any injury crashes. So any injury that counts four per million miles. Waymo is way better. Way better. 0.75. So about five times safer than humans broadly. But there's one very specific case where humans I believe are safer. Now there's debate about the data. I just had Claude like crunch it all together and try and pull a bunch of stuff together. But I think this holds. So a married 60 year old woman who's college educated and is driving A large luxury SUV in Massachusetts on a Tuesday morning is closer to 0.5 injury crashes per million miles. Is the Tuesday morning part real? Yes. So the most dangerous time to drive, and I'll flip it around, the most dangerous time to drive is midnight on a Saturday because that's when people are at the bars, they leave, they're drinking and so it's dark, it's the weekend, there's a lot more people on the road, they're driving much faster, they're getting places, they might be inebriated under the influence of something. And so Tuesday morning is the safest time to Drive. And so basically I looked at all the. It's the government IHTSA data, it's the transportation authority. I'm getting the acronym wrong. But you look at all the different segments and then you add all those together and you get kind of like the synthetic safest driver cohort. It's a little loose, but it does seem like if you looked at that cohort, they're still beating Waymo. Humans still got it at least, like kind of. It's pretty close. It's honestly neck and neck, but. So none of this should take away anything. None of this should take away. Feels like an Aiden Fielder episode in the making of like studying the women in Massachusetts. Yeah. Like what drivers on the planet. Just interviewing all of them to like. Married, 60 year old, college educated women. Comes to like the exact wrong conclusion. Oh, yeah, yeah. We need to. We need to get everyone married in college educated. No, the conclusion is everyone needs to move to Massachusetts. Yes. And, well, it's the married 60 year old women that need to be the taxi drivers everywhere in the world. They need to be. It's like instead of Waymo, he starts like a competitor to Waymo. Ride hailing. That's just them. Yeah, that's just them. Yeah. But it only works in Massachusetts, so clearly Waymos are very safe. Rolling them out nationally would be a huge safety upgrade for our society broadly. But it's worth noting that the Massachusetts married women still got it. But.
But yeah, if you build your own Cessna and you're modding it and you're taking it through the canyons, like you gotta watch out. Ask any recreational pilot if they've ever gotten into any hairy incidents. Totally tell you like, oh yeah, well this time I was flying and the wind came on super strong and I landed and I was basically, you know, 90 degrees. And a lot of times that counts as a crash. Like, I mean Harrison Ford has like crash landed on a golf course. And no, I believe no one was injured. I think it's happened multiple times actually by Harrison Ford. Harrison, yeah, he flies his own planes, but he flies like old planes and stuff. Like he's like a true enthusiast. Like he's, he's, he's like. How many simple flying dot com. How many plane crashes has Harrison Ford had in the last 25 years? The actor has been involved in several incidents involving emergency landings, rescues and Runway incursions. Yeah, exactly like it happens. It sounds crazy. It is crazy. I would never want to be in any sort of plane crash. But there's just way more, there's just way more planes flying around when you include those Cessnas. And it's not really fair to put that on United Airlines or American Airlines. 13Th of February 2017, Santa Ana, California. Single Engine Aviat Husky flown by Harrison Ford was cleared to land on Runway 20L. Ford's aircraft reportedly landed on a parallel taxiway over flying. American Airlines 737 is holding short of Runway 25th of March 2015 Santa Monica. Ford was a pilot and sole occupant of Ryan St 3 KR recruit, a two seat open cockpit aircraft that Open cockpit. Open cockpit. Think about that. You're flying and the wind's in your hair. Like that's not a normal experience. That's not coach on American Airlines. Used extensively as a training aircraft by the US military in World War II. According to a preliminary report for Ford reported a loss of engine power shortly after taking off and was attempting to return to Runway three. So he ended up crashing into like a field. Exactly. Ford chose to land on a nearby golf course, clipping the top of a tree before landing. If you just took Harrison Ford, he's probably more dangerous than like American airplane. June 2000. While landing in Lincoln, Nebraska, Ford's plane departed the Runway due to a gust of wind. The aircraft sustained minor damage. Oh no. 23Rd of October. Wait, there's a fourth one. I, I thought I was on a. Training flight in a Bell 206 helicopter when he and the instructor made an emergency landing in a dry riverbed near Santa Clarita. Crazy. Although the helicopter rolled over on its left side, neither Ford or the instructor were injured. Yeah, that's all that I can find. Okay, I have another plane story. I mean, imagine four major incidents like make it into the record. He's got to have at least, like, 10 more. Sketchy situation. No one wrote a piece about it. Let's not talk. Let's talk about that. Let's agree that, you know, hey, calls this PR person. Hey, let's clean this up. How about you take a picture of me outside Erewhon we get call the paps. I'm willing to give.