LIVE CLIPS
EpisodeĀ 1-16-2026
To websites with really aggressive offers. But right now in our ad account, if you guys go to the Facebook ad library and pull up Bridge, we are running full blown AI videos, right? And they're getting spend and they're winners in the ad account. So we're all probably underestimating how much it's going to affect the ad industry. It's like by the end of the year, video is going to be. If you want to make AI video, it'll look just like human video. And like the highest level productions are already being basically monopolized by AI. And something, something I've been thinking about that feels inevitable is, you know, two years from now we'll look back and laugh that people would like make an ad and then serve the same ad to like 100,000 people or a million people. Because it's like if you're going to spend a lot of money serving somebody an ad, you should serve them the most like hyper targeted like Sean Frank, I have an Athletic brewing company beer for here for you. I got an offer for you, Sean. Just click the link and check out like eventually it will just get so, so, so, so targeted that it's basically like ads are being generated on the fly for individual customers. Oh dude, that's for sure coming. Matt is working on it. And not only that, they'll put you in the ads. They'll be like, hey, look how cool you can look in this sweater. You should buy this sweater. And they want to do that because then the CP right now I get a $12 CPM on Meta. They would much prefer me get a $200 CPM and just show way less ads to everybody. Right? So I think that the personalization of ads is coming and we've already just seen it like in my ad account right now, today maybe a third of all my spenders will be AI ads. And that's crazy. That is crazy. Double click on the AI ads that you're running. Are you running stuff that you could shoot that's indistinguishable from human photography, human videograph? Is there unique value to saying, look, there's just no way that we could take a ridge wallet to the top of Mount Everest, shoot it into space, have it turn into cake, have it turn into a cat, like crazy stuff that's just impossible, maybe with like a massive CGI budget, but truly like breaking the laws of physics? Or are you just trying to do like, hey, it's just a ridge wallet on a beautiful background and you know, we were able to generate that. Yeah, so really what it is, is, you know, we have wallets with every college, and let's say there's 200 colleges in America right now. I could get 200 jerseys, I could get 200 fans, and I could have them talk about this particular wallet with this jersey, with this fan. They're very bespoke ad. And then serve it into a market like Ohio. I could do that, but that would cost, I don't know, $85,000 to run that campaign. Or I can have one guy do it in one day with Higgs Field or whatever. Right. So that's what we're doing right now. And are you guys using Hicksfield? We're having them on the show in just a couple minutes. Yeah. I love Hicksfield. So, yeah, I think normies are using ChatGPT now. Like, it fully broken through the mainstream, but, like, all of the tools around that. I mean, everyone knows lovable or built new. But, like, if you want to make videos at scale, Higgs feels like the best, easiest way to do that. Yeah. So the pipeline is you specifically want to multiply your creative. So you are filming one human video and then you're creating variations with AI. Is that the correct use case right now, as that example? No. So what we're doing is we have B roll of actual wallets being used that we've shot. Right. But we need an opening hook of a Buckeye fan in a jersey or whatever. So that is being done with AI and then intros to the wallet. Got it. And you can pull up our attic. Right now, there's a woman like Hunter, she's walking, talking about like, hey, like, I bought this for my husband. He's like, you know, whatever, that she doesn't exist. That is all AI. And it's because for us to find a woman, Hunter, who's out in a field or whatever, we could. We could do that. It would just take, you know, two days, and it probably cost $2,000. And we can test that concept right now in real time inside the Facebook ad library. So it's going to be interesting. I'm so curious.
Great direction. And to me, this kind of gets at the software as a service versus services as a software. You know, the nature of software is really changing as we go from an era of apps to an era of agents. In the era of apps, you want a lot of surface area with your customers. You want them to spend a lot of time in your product. You want to put workflows around them. They're going to be really sticky that they're going to get accustomed to. In an era of agents, to your point, things can just be running passively in the background. The actual amount of surface area you have with your customers might be de minimis. The amount of time they spend in your product might be de minimis. So the nature of the moat that you build is different. And the nature of the moat that you build, kind of what Sony was saying with the age of experience, it's all about context. It's all about, like the environmental context of the job that you are trying to achieve and the feedback that that agent gets as it runs off and does something and comes back and say, actually, you know, like, you did this part a little bit, a little bit wrong. You need to do this part a little bit different. And I think in a perfect world, you have something. You have something like what Harvey does, which, you know, Harvey kind of bridges that gap where there are workflows today for people who want to do the work kind of how they've done it in the past, just a lot better, faster, cheaper, with the benefit of the AI brain. And you can deploy agents to go out and do the work on your behalf and then come back to you when it is done. And I think that, I think that, I think we'll see a lot of that over the next handful of years where there are companies who can kind of bridge that gap, where they can live in the software world and have some of the workflows, better workflows because of the I. But some of the workflows people might be accustomed to, and then separately they can deploy in the background with these passive agents that kind of function as coworkers who just come back to you when things are done. But it's two very different, like design paradigms, it's two very different business paradigms. The fact that they're so different is one of the reasons why I think it's going to be tricky for a lot of the incumbent software companies to make the leap the same way it was tricky for a lot of on prem companies to make the leap to cloud. Can you help me understand where you sit on the level of software eating the world. We talked to Tyler.
And they're winners in the ad account. So we're all probably underestimating how much is going to affect the ad industry. It's like by the end of the year, video is going to be. If you want to make AI video, it'll look just like human video. And like the highest level productions are already being basically monopolized by AI. And something I've been thinking about that feels inevitable is, you know, two years from now we'll look back and laugh that people would like make an ad and then serve the same ad to like 100,000 people or a million people. Because it's like, if you're going to spend a lot of money serving somebody an ad, you should serve them the most, like hyper targeted, like, Sean Frank, I have an athletic brewing company beer for here for you. I got an offer for you, Sean. Just click the link and check out, like, eventually it will just get so, so, so, so targeted that it's basically like ads are being generated on the fly for individual customers. Oh, dude, that's for sure coming. Meta's working on it. And not only that, they'll put you in the ads. They'll be like, hey, look how cool you can look in this sweater. You should buy this sweater. And they want to do that because then the CPMs just go up. Right now I get a $12 cpm on Meta. They would much prefer me get a $200 cpm and just show way less ads to everybody. So I think that the personalization of ads is coming. And we've already just seen like in my ad account right now, today, maybe a third of all my spenders will be AI ads. And that's crazy. That is crazy. Double click on the AI ads that you're running. Are you running stuff that you could shoot that's indistinguishable from human photography, human videography? Or is there unique value to saying, look, there's just no way that we could take a ridge wallet to the top of Mount Everest, shoot it into space, have it turn into cake, have it turn into a cat, like crazy stuff that's just impossible. Maybe with a massive CGI budget, but truly breaking the laws of physics. Or are you just trying to do like, hey, it's just a ridge wallet on a beautiful background and we were able to generate that. Yeah. So really what it is is we have wallets with every college. And let's say there's 200 colleges in America right now. I could get 200 jerseys, I could get 200 fans, and I could have them talk about this particular wallet with this jersey, with this fan, like they have a very bespoke ad and then serve it into a market like Ohio. I could do that, but that would cost, I don't know, $85,000 to run that campaign. Or I can have one guy do it in one day with a Hicks Field or whatever. Right. So that's what we're doing right now. And are you guys using Hicksfield? We're having them at the show in just a couple of minutes. Yeah. I love Hicksfield. I think normies are using ChatGPT now. It fully broken through the mainstream, but all of the tools around that everyone knows lovable or built new. But if you want to make videos at scale, HIX feels like the best, easiest way to do that. Yeah. So the pipeline is you specifically want to multiply your creative. So you are filming one human video and then you're creating variations with AI. Is that the correct use case right now as that example? No. So what we're doing is we have B roll of actual wallets being used that we've shot. Right. But we need an opening hook of a Buckeye fan. Right. In a jersey or whatever. So that is being done with AI and then intros to the wallet. Got it. And you can pull up our attic. Right now. There's a woman like Hunter, she's walking, talking about, hey, I bought this for my husband. He's, whatever, that she doesn't exist. That is all AI. And it's because for us to find a woman, Hunter, who's out in a field or whatever, we could do that. It would just take, you know, two days and it'd probably cost $2,000. And we can test that concept right now in real time inside the Facebook ad library. So it's going to be interesting. I'm so curious to see what happens to the brands that, like, try to take some type of moral, aesthetic or ethical high ground and just say, like, we never use AI and like, what actually happens to those? It's one of those things. Yeah. It's like not using AI. It's like, it's like if somebody said, like, yeah, we don't use computers, I'm like, I don't even know what you mean. It's like everything's. Everything's going to be AI so look incredibly bullish on ads coming to any surface of the Internet. So if there's any surface of the Internet that doesn't have an ad, I would love an ad to be there. You know, You guys did the app Lovin ad read brand new to E Commerce, and I spend millions of dollars there, and I love it as an ad product. So more of that is just really good for me. So if it comes to Gemini or ChatGPT now, I just don't think they'll do big, beautiful display ads. I don't think there'll be any video ads. It's just gonna be, hey, you're looking for a gift? Ridge Wallet will give you the best price ever right now. And then they'll take a 30% commission. I really want to see more flashbacks.
This is a great question and I think we have seen that custom silicon can perform really well. Gemini 3 is the first multimodal LLM which has these immersion capabilities which is Nano Banana Pro model. This model essentially made Adobe obsolete. Yeah, because I mean, who needs to go to Photoshop? Yeah, yeah. Look, I mean I'm not saying like, especially for social media marketing, if we're being serious. So I mean going. And if, let's say Jordy, you assign me to go and make five ads for you a day and try completely different stuff, I don't have time to go to Photoshop and push every pixel to make it perfect. I better use model like Mana Banana Pro to really deliver against the vision. And it's semantic based editing, not just like pixel pushing. So I kind of miss, I kind. Of miss when you used to be able, used to see really high quality Photoshop on the timeline. And part of why you appreciated it is like somebody really needed to put the effort in or they needed, even if they're not great at Photoshop, they hired somebody and it's like. And nowadays it's, you know, they got the Lasso tool and they cut that character out and slapped that text over there, threw a drop shadow on it and now it's just a prompt. It's fascinating. Yeah, now it's just a prompt and it's done with custom silicon. So I think we're gonna see a renaissance of custom silicon for sure. I mean Gemini and nanobananapro are amazing model with these immersion capabilities and we really embrace those creators and social media marketers who create ads with AI end to end so they don't have to go to Adobe tooling at all. Mm. How, how are you tracking the, the problem of understanding what's, what's AI generated, what's real. This is now a daily.
Somebody. But yeah, long term, it's. I mean, I don't. I don't think it's a good trend. The thing we're most interested in is fiber. I think fiber is going to have a protein like moment. And protein's been like on a mega trend for 20 years or whatever and has billions of dollars in spend behind it. You know, creatine had like a little taste of that. But fiber will be like the next, you know, thing that even reaches something like a protein. So we think fiber is like the, the obvious big trend right now that's going mainstream. Will we see you guys enter the category this year? We're secretly in the fiber space already, so we're not talking about it, but we have a brand bubbling up. We have real customers that are paying. They don't know it's behind Ridge, but we'll talk about that. Maybe offline. Amazing. So you're going to post your revenue every single month.
Right now. Well, what about ad creative? There's this weird trend where D2C companies were effectively making TV commercials with TV production techniques, cinema cameras, high res photos, whatnot. But what wound up working on TikTok and Instagram Reels and YouTube shorts was a lot of UGC, a lot of stuff shot on iPhones, a lot of stuff that feels more natural. Is there a world where maybe you want to get good at creating Sora videos or AI generated images? Even if they don't look like a real photo, it looks more natural within that app. Within the chat app, you're expecting to see AI images and so you want to lean into AI image versions of your products. Even if the background's a little crazy hallucinogenic, it's what people will be used to. They'll be in that mode. Yeah, I think when ChatGPT launches their ad product, it's probably going to be thumbnails to websites with really aggressive offers. But right now in our ad account, if you guys go to the Facebook ad library and pull up Bridge, we are running full blown AI videos, right? And they're getting spend and they're winners in the ad account. So we're all probably underestimating how much is going to affect the ad industry. It's like by the end of the year the video is going to be. If you want to make AI video, it'll look just like human video. And the highest level productions are already being basically monopolized by AI. And something I've been thinking about that feels inevitable is two years from now we'll look back and laugh that people would make an ad and then serve the same ad to 100,000 people or a million people. Because it's like if you're going to spend a lot of money serving somebody an ad, you should serve them the most like hyper targeted like Sean Frank, I have an athletic brewing company beer for here for you. I got an offer for you, Sean. Just click the link and check out like eventually it will just get so, so, so, so targeted that it's basically like ads are being generated on the fly for individual customers. Oh dude, that's for sure coming. Meta's working on it. And not only that, they'll put you in the ads. They'll be like, hey, look how cool you can look in this SW should buy this sweater. And they want to do that because then the CPMs just go up. Right now I get a $12 CPM on Meta. They would much prefer me get a $200 CPM and just show way less ads to everybody. Right. So I think that the personalization of ads is coming. And we've already just seen, like, in my ad account right now, today, maybe a third of all my spenders will be AI ads. And that's crazy. That is crazy. Double click on the AI ads that you're running. Are you running stuff that you could shoot that's indistingu from human photography, human videography? Or is there unique value to saying, look, there's just no way that we could take a ridge wallet to the top of Mount Everest, shoot it into space, have it turn into cake, have it turn into a cat. Like, crazy stuff that's just impossible. Maybe with like a massive CGI budget, but truly, like, breaking the laws of physics. Or are you just trying to do like, hey, it's just a ridge wallet on a beautiful background. And, you know, we were able to generate that. Yeah. So really what it is is we have wallets with every college. And let's say there's 200 colleges in America right now. I could get 200 jerseys, I could get 200 fans, and I could have them talk about this particular wallet with this jersey, with this fan, like a very bespoke ad, and then serve it into a market like Ohio. I could do that, but that would cost, I don't know, $85,000 to run that campaign. Or I can have one guy do it in one day with Hicksfield or whatever. Right. So that's what we're doing right now. And are you guys using Hicksfield? We're having them at the show in just a couple minutes. Yeah, I love Hicksfield. So, Yeah, I don't think, like, I think normies are using ChatGPT now. Like, it fully broken through the mainstream, but, like, all of the tools around that. I mean, everyone knows lovable or built new. But, like, if you want to make videos at scale, Higs feels like the best, easiest way to do that. Yeah. So the pipeline is you specifically want to multiply your creative, so you are filming one human video and then you're creating variations with AI. Is that the correct use case right now as that example? No. So what we're doing is we have B roll of actual wallets being used that we've shot. Right. But we need an opening hook of a Buckeyes fan in a jersey or whatever. So that is being done with AI and then intros to the wallet. Got it. And you can pull up our attic. Right now, there's a woman like Hunter, she's walking, talking about, like, hey, like, I bought this for my husband. He's like, you know, whatever. That she doesn't exist. That is all AI. And it's because for us to find a woman hunter who's out in a field or whatever, we could. We could do that. It would just take, you know, two days, and it probably cost $2,000. And we can test that concept right now in real time inside the Facebook ad library. So it's going to be interesting. I'm sorry. So curious to see what happens to the brands that, like, try to take some type of moral, aesthetic, or ethical high ground and just say, we never use AI and what actually happens to those. It's one of those things. Yeah. It's like not using AI it's like if somebody said, yeah, we don't use computers, I'm like, I don't even know what you mean. It's like, everything's a. Everything's going to be AI So look incredibly bullish on ads coming to any surface of the Internet. So if there's any surface of the Internet that doesn't have an ad, I would love an ad to be there. You guys did the app lovin.
For you. Insane. Fantastic. Fantastic. Insane. Brought the, brought the RLP emergency podcast. We have why we wanted to have you on because OpenAI introduced ads. How quickly are you thinking about ramping up, testing it out? What have you learned? Is Connor waiting in line outside of OpenAI to try to be the first? Dude, no joke. We would be the first advertiser if they let us. We measure a lot of traffic sources over at Ridge and the most like revenue per user out of all traffic ever. I mean, Google, branded, meta, whatever is chatgpt. We get like $12 from every one of those sessions and it like, you know, for meta, you'd be lucky to get a dollar per user. Right. So the revenue per session from a AI user is just through the roof. And you know, we have some data. I don't know if you want to share it or not, but like North Beam put out their 2025 report and they track, you know, probably 2,000 merchants, billions of dollars in revenue. And AI search in January was like 0.01% of all traffic on all E commerce websites and now it's like 0.7. So it's just like shot through the roof and there's not ads yet. As soon as ads roll out, I am so excited. Okay, we would expect the dollar per year.
Maybe offline. Amazing. So you're going to post your revenue every single month to invite thousands of competitors into the category, right? Yeah. Seems to be the smartest thing to do. Right. The build in public movement brought to consumer is just an absolute nightmare. It's like if you brag to the world about how much revenue you're doing, there are going to be smart people that enter your category and they're going to do it fast and they might out execute you. I don't think they'd out execute you guys, but I've yet to see a consumer founder build in public that didn't ultimately regret it. Oh yeah, you know, we're pretty public with Rich just because I think you have to be stupid to try to sell wallets in 2026 or whatever. Yeah. But for you guys, it was never like you were just like, here's our investor update. I'm publishing it because it's so good. Like, like you guys don't have investors but like it was never like, I'm gonna flex monthly on the timeline. Which is the approach that I think a lot of people have had. Like on the consumer side. Yeah, I mean consumer's a knife fight, man. Like there's no moats at all. It's the digital equivalent of opening a restaurant, I think. So, you know, like you're fighting for every single transaction. Right. You guys are just having, you know, sequoia on talking about it's a great time to sell enterprise SaaS because you guys have hostages and not customers. And it's like, yeah, I would love to have. Yeah, there's truly no lock in once you buy one. It's not that you have to come back the next year. Whereas for a lot of Enterprise SaaS, if you stop paying, your entire business shuts down. Yeah. The moat is like scale operational excellence, but those things can erode. Very team based. Well, thank you so much for taking the time to hop on. Great to see you. Next time you come on, come in person, we'll hang out. You know, it's not that long of. A drive drive, dude, I would love to. And wait. Crushing it. Once you actually have the OpenAI ad platform live. Let's come here, let's put it on the big screen. We'll get a bunch of monitors and we'll just monitor the situation together. And we'll clap every time a sale comes in. Hell yeah, brothers. And thank you for hooking the team up with Ridge Wallet. Oh yeah, you guys are too kind. I was in the gym this morning with some of the folks, they had the suitcase. Look, the suitcase. There it is in the corner. Every single member of the team is rocking a Ridge suitcase. There are more Ridge wallets that you can possibly count in this ultra dome. It's amazing. We're huge fans. We love you. I carry a Ridge wallet every day. I love it. Talk soon. Thank you. Keep crushing. Goodbye. Goodbye. Goodbye. Restream 1 livestream 30 plus destinations. If you want to multi stream, go to restream.com I want to talk about ads more. I want to talk about Vibe Co's ads. They're a sponsor of us, but they've also been burning up the timeline with with a number of billboard ads in San Francisco. Shiel Monot, friend of the show, says these ads are very clever. What else is in the collection? And I got a preview of some other ones. So this is Jensen on Target. Jensen on tv. That's a brilliant billboard. It only works in San Francisco. But Jensen Wong, the CEO of Nvidia, his leather jacket is iconic. And so you see the shoulder of the leather jacket with Jensen, you know what they're talking about. If you want to get to him, you're going to go to Vibe Co. What else did they do? They did say target market on tv. They put just Marc Andreessen's head there. It's an iconic image and it lets you know immediately. How can you target someone like Marc Andreessen? It's hard. He's not going to be everywhere. Vibe Co has great targeting. So I got a little teaser of what else is available. We got Sam Altman, Target Sama on TV with the McLaren one. Yeah. Is that real? And then we'll go to the next one, Target Zuck on tv. And it's a wrist with a FP Journe on there or a Patek. No, you made these. And then the next one, they have a Target Esky on tv and it is a barbell. Yeah. So this is the type of marketing that you gotta be doing. You gotta be thinking, okay, how do I send a message? There's one more. We'll go to this target, Augustus on tv. Of course, everyone knows Augustus Dirico. You know, he's known for carrying a white monster. It's sort of like a human version of the white monster. If you put this billboard up, everyone's gonna get it immediately. They're gonna know that you're cool. They're gonna know that they should go to vi. They should start targeting folks like Augustus Dirico, the CEO and founder of Rainmaker, who's known for having a white monster every once in a while. Not every once in a while. Pretty much constantly. Every hour on the hour. He's powered by it. The way you drink Diet Cokes, I imagine. He drinks White monster. Yes, yes. Just like, oh, oh, it's two o'. Clock. No, no, the four of those that we just displayed I did generate in nano banana with Gemini 3 Pro, Google's most intelligent model yet. Leah says. Love trash day. Love hearing that truck. Humans getting stuff done. Cooperation, logistics, municipal services, civilization. Couldn't agree more. It's a reminder that we haven't collapsed yet. Dude, a four year old. The way their face lights up when the trash truck comes. And it's just pure wonder at the massive machinery moving up and down the street, the beeping when it backs up. That is childlike wonder that you should never lose. No matter what. You should always take, take a moment to show some respect for the trash truck. I completely agree. I love it. Joe Wiesenthal is crashing out. He says he never wants to use the web again. He said in today's Odd Lots newsletter he wrote about how depressing the Internet's become. We'll read his piece. And we need to catch up with Joe. I think he's coming on the show soon. He says, I swear, I swear this is not another piece about my personal forays into vibe coding. Okay, maybe it is a little bit, but not really. So last year we did an episode with the COO of Perplexity, whose name is Dimitri, he says, which is kind of a hybrid LLM search engine. You'll be familiar with it. It's very tethered to the real world. So if you asked it about, hey, maybe the latest developments in Venezuela, it will obviously produce text, but also links to the latest reporting from reputable news outlets and other sources. It generally works well if you want to get up to speed on something that's happening right now. Anyway, one of the questions that Joe tried to get across with Dimitri, but he doesn't think he phrased it all that particularly well, is what happens to the future of the web as we know it if more and more of our news is coming to us from chatbot form? Let's just imagine people start regularly making Perplexity their first destination each morning to capture up on the news. And let's just imagine, for sake of a thought experiment, that the traditional news publishers come out fine in this relationship. So the New York Times and the CNNs and the AL Jazeeras of this world are getting adequately compensated for their Reporting to be summarized and displayed in perplexity. It's hard for me to imagine the future, but whatever is beside the point. So he's just saying it's not an economic issue. Let's talk about the vibes that would result from this. So he says this is his question in the future. Why do websites still exist? If more and more people start consuming the New York Times content through a chatbot, why continue to invest in maintaining a well functioning website called nytimes.com I suppose that to some extent this is a question that precedes the existence of chatbots. There was almost certainly a time when a majority when a major priority for the New York Times was to have a well functioning, elegant website. And while there are people still paid to work on it, this is probably not the top priority right now. A tech budget that might have once gone to web development might now be going to figure out the best strategy for Instagram reels or whatever. Nonetheless. Do you have a comment, Jordan? Yeah, Maybe this is just because I turned 30 and I'm unknown, but I like going into the world of the content. Like I like going to the Wall Street Journal app. I like going to the New York Times app. I like going to these places because the physical paper, we like the physical paper. This isn't going anywhere for my cold, dead hands. Me and you, Joe Weisenthal, we are keeping the newspaper alive. I guess you'll be on the web like some hot new youngin and ultimately I will be reading the paper. Yeah, ultimately I still care about like it matters. I care a lot about who wrote it too. Totally. Like I don't want it just served. But that can be instantiated in perplexity or chatgpt. It can tell you who wrote it. You could, in theory, if the deals are structured properly. Now you can't get, I don't think you can get the New York times content in ChatGPT because they have a lawsuit. You can get Wall Street Journal content. So in theory, you could kick off your morning with a query to ChatGPT. Hey, tell me the most interesting pieces that are on the front page of the Wall Street Journal. And it would just do it for you and it would bring that in and it would pay News Corp accordingly. But there's something fun about holding a nice piece of paper in your hands. I think it will die, but a very, very slow death. We're still reading newspapers. I imagine I'll still be reading newspapers in a while, and I imagine that we'll still be going to the websites. But he is correct to highlight that there is a change afoot. So he says, nonetheless, the web browser is by and large still a dominant piece of software for accessing content and services that exist on the Internet. And in fact, if we step out of the news context and think about it, say, buying car insurance, then the website as we know it is still incredibly important. Anyway, I was thinking about this again because my vibe coding foray, easily the most annoying parts were when I had to leave the terminal interface and do something on the web. So it's still an unbelievably annoying process to do something simple like redirect a domain name. I found godaddies, where I've been registering various domain names for years. Interface to be borderline unusable. Shots fired. Fact check. True, it is difficult sometimes. Every time I'm just trying to make sure that a domain is renewed, they're like, how about you buy a thousand websites right now? Buy 1,000 websites. Buy 1,000 AI websites. I'm a name.com guy. We actually have experience. We have 1 billion in websites for you. Yeah, yeah, yeah. As I mentioned in the piece he wrote on Tuesday, one of the first things Joe did to make it so he could update his website directly from Claude Code rather than having to update the files via cloudflare backend. This is the first very small thing, but the point is that every time I had to operate in the browser, it felt deflating typing in URLs, clicking buttons, checking boxes, pulling down dropdowns, entering fields. No, thank you. He's genuinely curious what happens to visual the visual web that's designed for humans? I know there's plenty of work that's being done to allow agents such as Claude Code to go to a website, click around at what human does. Just in the same way the chatbots were trained on billions of Reddit posts and everything else on the Internet, these agents are being trained by ingesting numerous sessions of people, moving a mouse on the screen and so forth until they commit that process. So that's all well and good, but it still gets to this issue that we currently have much of the Internet presented in the form of web pages that are designed to be logical and pleasing to the human eye. We still do so much on the web, but now every time I have to use the web, it feels kind of like a personal failure. It feels inefficient. And if the web is increasingly going to be navigated by bots working on a human user's behalf, then why even bother? Optimizing it for visuality at all. I don't know where any of this is going, but my guess is that it's pretty big. Structural changes are in store for what people think of as the Internet. Yes, it's interesting. No, I feel like the Internet is already living in apps so much. Like, when I think about a world in the future where an LLM is just generating me an article that was in the New York Times that day, I could imagine it just generating it in the visual style the New York Times decides themselves. I mean, you can already do this with Nanobanana. You can say, write me a New York Times style article about this topic. It will write it, instantiate it. It will search the web to find the facts. So it'll probably not hallucinate that much. And then you could say, turn it into an image that looks like a New York Times screenshot and it'll do that too. So people will be met where their preferences are. I don't know. I think that, I mean, the flip side is like he's making this argument that as more and more traffic shifts away from the web, it will get fewer and fewer resources within those organizations. So the New York Times will say, hey, we're not getting that much traffic to our website, so let's not spend that much time effort making it better. But you also get 10 times as much leverage because the folks at the New York Times will be able to fire off an agent and say, hey, make it look better. And so you would imagine, I would hope that even as you go from, okay, maybe there's. There's 10 people working on a pro on a website and now five of them move over to Instagram and YouTube strategy and four of them move over to generative optimization, optimization strategies and LLM and AI stuff. Well, there's one person left, the person on the Japanese soldier on the island who hasn't gotten the memo that no one's going to the website. Well, some people are going there and they fire off a prompt, make it perfect, don't make mistakes. And boom, they're good, they're in business. So some cost for optimism. We'll see. What do you think, Tyler? I was just going to update on the same. Altman, please give us an update. What's up? So first, Jesse, if you want to look at prediction markets. So will Elon Musk win his case against OpenAI? Yes, earlier today, basically at the peak of like the. Oh my gosh, like, Sam is so cooked. Yes. He was at 74.5% chance whoa. It's now down at 54.1. This is fascinating. We're watching them like duke it out in real time. Prediction. You know, Elon, he doesn't have to worry too much because Nick. Oh, Nick, his strongest soldier from the. He's saying it reads as Elon's emails are. It reads as obviously fabricated. Elon doesn't talk like that. Oh, well, you know, case closed. Case closed. I wonder if Nick will be called to testify. I'd love to see him on the stand. That would be very entertaining. Anyway, Jensen Huang doesn't care about gamers. Allegedly. ASUS reportedly says the RTX 5070 Ti is no longer being produced. RTX 5060 Ti 16 gig to follow. The gamers have been having a rush. I don't want to play with. Jensen says I don't want to play with gamers anymore. It's AI all the time. Yes. Gamers are being squeezed left and right. We need to make everyone aware of the rights of gamers with our cod sounds and our flashbangs and our smoke grenades to let people know, let Jensen know. Maybe we'll have to bring Jensen on the show. Throw a smoke grenade, and when the smoke clears, he can tell us that he is still committed to. To gamers. Let's move on to World Labs. World Labs. What do we got? Launched a box. They shipped a box. It's a video of. They took World Labs. I think this is real. I have no idea how to process this, but it looks like they built a screen, put in a box that has. What is it? Imu. Inertial measurement unit that can measure how the box is being rotated and then it can re render the world. So you're looking into it in this box. This seems really, really cool. This seems like just a piece of hardware that people would actually buy and sell. We've seen this with the holographic display that you put next to your gaming rig made by Asus or Razer. I guess Razer is the one that makes it. This is really cool. I'm a big fan of World Labs and I like that they're. They're productizing this. I wonder if this is like a stunt, if this is just for fun. I really hope we can get our hands on one of these because this looks amazing. Well, there is more news in the AI talent war. What do we got? The total number of employees that are leaving thinking machines. Alex Heath is hearing that it's up to six now. True scoop God is on the trail of another scoop. He Posted this at 2:00am he's up burning the midnight oil, getting the scoops on Thinking Machines. Maybe up to six people leaving. Naval says California based unicorns because of ads. Do you think, do you think all the thinking machines folks were like, wait. A minute, we want to work on ads. They're going to do ads at OpenAI. I got to go back there. I got to go to OpenAI. I got to get out of here. It's been my dream. Mira hasn't said anything about. Or maybe it's. Maybe it's they wanted to work on adult mode. Maybe. Maybe there's lots of reasons. Or Sora, they could be trying to. Grind up the Disney ip. They want to get their hands on that ip. Yeah. They want to slop it up and they say we're not doing any of that at Thinking Machine. So we're going over to open. Talk about this. Naval says California based unicorns being routed to the glue factory. The horse metaphor, mincing words. We will protect the unicorns. Unicorns are horses. We will protect them. They are. Can we read through David Friedberg's piece? Yeah. Fantastic piece. California started with the gold rush and might end with the gold. Golden exit record has been underreported. How much wealth has left California because of the asset seizure tax being proposed? It's important that we continue to call it the Asset Seizure tax. A private poll was conducted amongst affected individuals a few days ago and 80 to 90% surveyed they had already left California in 2025 or will leave in 2026 if the ballot measure looks likely to pass. Of course, the ballot measure currently is retroactive so they would be subject to the 5% one time tax. And of course it would get litigated. Dave Friedberg continues. Two to two and a half trillion of assets gone, representing 20 billion of annual revenue for the state government and likely hundreds of thousands of jobs now at risk. Less reported is the bigger exodus underway from folks who are not directly affected but worry, as they should, that this law will quickly transition from billionaires to to everyone else. The initiative actually gives California legislators the right to take anyone's post tax assets anytime in the future, based on a majority vote. This isn't about billionaires. It's a new tax system that simply destroys private property rights. In America, all private property is now public property. Even after paying your taxes, it's not legally your property anymore. It's the government's. You're just borrowing it. Legislators will decide what you get to keep and temporarily use each year. Countless founders, CEOs and other business leaders are actively looking to move their companies out of state. Not just tech, not just AI, not just billionaires. But the core engine of California's prosperity since 1847 is unraveling. And here is how this initiative risks unraveling America. Ten states have explicit or implicit prohibitions against asset seizure. Tax individuals affected in California and other states trying to do the same. We'll move to these states that endow private property rights. California already has a 20 to 30 billion dollars budget deficit, an unfunded 1 trillion pension liability for public employees unions and 500 billion of debt outstanding. The state cannot afford to borrow more, much more, and will launch more asset seizures to meet its obligations. Asset seizures will transition to millionaires and eventually to the entire middle class. As more asset seizures drive more people to leave the state, the debt, the deficit, debt and job loss will spiral. The golden exit. No US state has ever declared bankruptcy. In addition to California, dozens of other states face similar fiscal crises. Legislators promise future benefits that can't be paid. Where theft and waste have been allowed to run rampant and unabated for years. Struggling states will eventually request federal government assistance as they always have in times of fiscal crisis, effectively federalizing state debt. States not in crisis will declare enough is enough. Individuals in those states will refuse to pay their federal taxes. Why pay for other people's mistakes? Some states may try to secede from the union and a constitutional and civil crisis will erupt. I know this sounds crazy, but I think at some point states will just say like people, citizens will be like, why am I sending 30% of every dollar I make to bureaucrats in Washington that hate me? And so I think this sounds wild, but I don't think it's as far fetched. Yeah, it's very dark. It's nothing like a little Friday Black. The answer is clearly just AGI pilling all of the California regulators. Just say AGI will solve the deficit. We will just ask AGI to fix the debt, fix the fiscal crisis, fix the pension liabilities, fix the budget deficit. Don't make mistakes. And so much value will be created by AGI here. Just the income taxes will pay for that a thousand times over. A thousand times over. So you don't need to. You can respect private property. Don't worry, it's going to be fine. AGI is here to save that. That's the solution. Got to pitch them anyway. Back to the AI world. We have Alex from Higsfield AI in the restream waiting room. Let's bring him in to the TVPN Ultra now. Alex, how are you doing? He's back doing great. Great to be back. It's. We were just talking about the billionaire tax. You got something that fortunately your business is doing so well. Yeah. Focus on growth. Focus on the good things. Tell us the best news in your world this year. Give me that mallet. Oh, yeah. Give me that mallet. Yeah. What's the latest. What's the latest metric? Absolutely. So what's exciting about Hicksfield is that we see emergence of AI native social media agencies. So really teams from maybe 10 to 30 people making commercial ads end to end with AI. Yeah. We just talked to Sean Frank. He said he's a huge fan. He uses it for Ridge Wallet and has been able to generate custom ads for tons of different markets, local areas where it was just completely unfeasible to cast so many actors to play so many different parts for every single different college team that he sells products for. Yeah, it's a fascinating time. So this is. Is mostly driven by agents or brands going direct. What's the biggest driver of growth for you? Absolutely. We are excited to see Fortune 500 brands really hiring, primarily hiring, really hiring smaller. Really hiring smaller agents.
Brewing for Manhattan's. We did also take a very intentionally, like, long track with things too where so like that, like, yeah, talking to someone face to face is very unscalable. And like doing things digitally is so much more scalable in awareness. But like, if you do it enough and if you're doing it all the time, all of a sudden it is scalable on a long time horizon. And even up until this year, last year, we probably did 2,500 events as a company and handed out well over a million samples, probably in all 50 and three other countries. And so those things do scale over time. And then we've been really consistent with our marketing messages too. I knew my core skill set isn't like me being a social media Persona and just turning on the cameras all the time. We wanted to create a timeless brand that just compounds over time. We talk about the same things over and over again. I think of it somewhat as a Red Bull model of advertising consistency where most of CPG these days is like chasing that next hit. It's like you've got to be on the next trend. You've got to be like, the next video's got to be a home run or even shorter duration. Like celebrity trends. We've had upwards of 10 celebrities enter our category. We have a whole range of superheroes at this point. And it's so funny because you probably know all of them, but you could list them all off and I've never heard of any of them. And that's. That tells you everything about the level of focus. And actually it's probably harder to watch their movies now. I feel personally slighted. I can't do it. Yeah. Well, we've got one more, at least one more superhero coming into the category this year. This one's being launched at us from a French castle. You know, it's going to be draped in Americana imagery. So we're excited for that one. Interesting. But there's all different texts. There's like the short term celebrity spike and like, hope you can ride it where we've kind of just done the thing and been authentic. Like who we are inside the walls is who we are outside the walls over and over again. I think that really compounds over time and matches with our like, manufacturing strategy, our continuous investments in quality. Every one of our teammates is full time teammates. And like all. All this capital investment is. It looks really good right now. But in 2018, this was super out of vog.
Actually a bottleneck. Yes. I think this is a great question in a great direction. And to me, this kind of gets at the software as a service versus services as a software. You know, the nature of software is really changing as we go from an era of apps to an era of agents. In the era of apps, you want a lot of surface area with your customers. You want them to spend a lot of time in your product. You want to put workflows around them. They're going to be really sticky that they're going to get accustomed to. In an era of agents, to your point, things can just be running passively in the background. The actual amount of surface area you have with your customers might be de minimis. The amount of time they spend in your product might be de minimis. So the nature of the moat that you build is different. And the nature of the moat that you build, kind of what Sony was saying with the age of experience, it's all about context. It's all about, like, the environmental context of the job that you are trying to achieve and the feedback that that agent gets as, as it runs off and does something and comes back and say, actually, you know, like, you did this part a little bit, a little bit wrong. You need to do this part a little bit different. And I think in a perfect world, you have something. You have something like what Harvey does, which, you know, Harvey kind of bridges that gap where there are workflows today for people who, who want to do the work kind of how they've done it in the past, just a lot better, faster, cheaper, with the benefit of the AI brain. And you can deploy agents to go out and do the work on your behalf and then come back to you when it is done. And I think that, I think that. I think we'll see a lot of that over the next handful of years where there are companies who can kind of bridge that gap, where they can live in the software world and have some of the workflows, better workflows because of the I. But some of the workflows people might be accustomed to, and then separately they can deploy in the background with these passive agents that kind of function as coworkers who just come back to you when things are done. But it's two very different, like, design paradigms, it's two very different business paradigms. The fact that they're so different is one of the reasons why I think it's going to be tricky for a lot of the incumbent software companies to make the leap the same way. It was tricky for a lot of on prem companies to make the leap.
That's. Yeah, there's so much. There's such a. There's kind of this toxic idea that I feel like is ingrained in so many people's head, which is like AGI is just gonna do that. Yeah, like AGI is just gonna do. That and then we're done. AGI is gonna cure cancer. And it's like, at least in the near term, from everything we're seeing, it's gonna be a human properly, a group of talented people properly using the tools to solve all the most pressing problems that we have. And so it's. And for young people, I extremely paralyzed. To be like in 2027, I'm either dead or a billionaire retired on a space yacht. And so I could probably just chill for the next two years because it's going to be one or the other. No. And I worry abundance. I worry that we sort of like lost generation of people that have let be ingrained in their head that it's not worth trying. It's not worth. Now is the time to build enterprise SaaS even. Even I heard. It from Sequoia Capital. Get in the arena, folks. This is my call to action. I feel, seriously, I feel bad.
Books. One thought is like I think we're going from over the last decade we went from sales led growth to product led growth. Yeah, I think we're going from product led growth to agent led growth. Okay. And I think you see this most clearly actually if you're using for example cloud code actively like it says hey you should use for database, you should use Supabase for hosting use Vercel et cetera and like it's choosing for you the stuff you should be using. And I think increasingly like so it's most obvious to me with code like your agent is choosing your infrastructure. Yeah but I think it's going to happen across the entire economy like your chat chipsee is going to tell you like hey this is the, this place, this is the travel you should be booking. This is the, you know and so I think we are going to, it's. Like back to channel channel sales. Like old school. Yeah, old school. But I think that the difference is like you don't have competing incentives here and I think the open I guys tried to lays like principles that I think are it's a very principled take on you know, how do you want to tell users what to use And I think product led growth brought us closer to the vision of best product wins. But like ultimately people are still lazy. They can't read all these reviews, they kind of default to like what looks cool on the website. Whereas agent led growth like your agent has, remember your agent has infinite time to go and make these for you and so it can go and you know, read all the documentation, read all the user comments like figure out for. Your use case also has an experience like building on top of the infrastructure. It's like, like eventually it's like well you want. Yeah reputation, reputation management is going to be very. You show up in these LLMs is important both in the pre training and in all the research that they do. And then also this whole idea of like SaaS companies that don't have customers, they have hostages. Well if it's one click or one prompt to replatform from the database that was trying to keep you hostage to the database that's trying to keep you happy. Yeah but it's also dynamic. I think it's good alignment. Compare it to like if you're building a home and the person like you know like running like the construction firm that you choose like uses really bad cement and then you have like a terrible foundation. Like you're going to be mad. You're actually going to be mad at like the firm because you're like, why did you pick this? Yeah, should have known. This is like. And so I do think there's a good alignment where it's like the best, like you were saying, the best product should win because the agent is incentivized to make sure that you're on the best, like footing and using the best product. And cost is a factor. Quality, reliability, all these things. I do think there's that good alignment. That makes a lot of sense. Agents kind of accelerate this, you know, best product wins notion. And best product for the human is maybe different. Best product for the agent sometimes. Fantastic. Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come and chat with us today. Have a great weekend and we'll talk to you soon. Pat, we'll see you next week. Sonia. Two for two. Have a great to see you guys.
What they give you. Yeah, it's. It's what we've seen. The organic traffic from any AI search is already so valuable. Right. Any way to get more of that, we would. We would spend a lot of money for. But, you know, the beauty of the Facebook ad product is that they figured out a way to take half of everybody's revenue. Right. Like, affiliate is like, people, let's give it up for Mark Zuckerberg. Yeah, I'll take. You do the work. I'll take half. Yeah. TikTok Shop affiliate people don't want to give more than 15% of a sale. They're like, oh, that is too much. Right. But all performance marketing is. Is just a. Is affiliate in a different coat. Right. It's like they're able to, like, oh, you're going to generate your demand, and if you have a better offer, you'll get a better return. Right. But really, they just figured out exactly how much money they could take from everybody at the optimal level, and that's why they do $100 billion a year in revenue. So if the offer from ChatGPT and Sam Altman is, hey, give us 40% of your revenue and we'll give you new customers, you wouldn't get otherwise. I would take that deal because I'm already Giving Mark Zuckerberg 50%. Right. One thing that's.
Like, in my view, it's like a catalog and it's a CRM and it's a payment processor. Oh, for sure. It does all those things incredibly well. Bro, I'm so bullish on Shopify. I love. I love Shopify as a thing, but the challenge is the website will become less important in the future. Just like mobile apps had a moment, they're not important anymore. When was the last time you guys opened a shopping mobile app? And before that it was catalogs, right? So, like, the user experience has become easier and easier and easier and the way you interact with brands has changed. And I think the website will kind of be replaced just by asking Chat to buy you stuff. And maybe you'll still go to websites, but kind of like how you still kind of open catalogs. I don't open catalogs. Yeah, straight in the recycling. I'm like, I did not ask for this. Totally. Right. And that's just like the worry of the website. So Shopify is incredibly important for us, but they do have to plug into every single LLM, right? They have to be that product feed everywhere and. Yeah, but I think they're there. They've taken the approach of just like being more quick to partner with the alarms than an Amazon has because again, they don't have that same, like, they have, like, less to lose, right? They're not worried that because they don't have an ad business, they're not like, I feel like Amazon has to be a lot more. When you look at the catalog, when you look at the marketplaces that have partnered with ChatGPT, it's like Etsy, right? Etsy doesn't really have anything to lose, right? Like they're. They just want more traffic, more, more sales. Like, they'll take it however they can get it. Whereas, like, Amazon has something to lose, right? You know, and it was big news when Shopify partnered with ChatGPT, Intel, Amazon partnered with ChatGPT and Amazon comes in with an equity round and like that. Now all of those products are going to be feeding in ChatGPT, and that's one of the worries of Shopify. It's like, how do you stand out right now? It's like beautiful brands with beautiful websites with shopping experiences and that is different from what Amazon offers. But if all of those products are just going to be discoverable inside of ChatGPT and competing for the same space, I don't know the value of my website in three years. That's one thing that we're worried about at Ridge right now. Well, what about ad Creative? I. There's this weird trend where D2C companies were effectively making TV commercials with TV production techniques, cinema cameras, high res photos.
Right. Market clearing order in balance. Come on, get up. We are surrounded by journalists. Hold your position. Drink1, Strike 2, Activate. Go. Golden retriever mode. Market clearing order inbound. I see multiple journalists on the horizon. Founder. You're watching TV. Today is Friday, January 16, 2026. We are live from the TVP and Ultradome. The temple of technology, the fortress of. Finance, the capital of capital. Capital. El Capital. De Capital. Let's tell you about Ramp times. Money baby Save both Easy use, corporate cards, bill payments, accounting and a whole lot more all in one place. It is the goat of fintech. A fintech goat. A bunch of news today. Lots of people dropping stuff on Fridays. What's the meaning behind that? I don't know, but we'll take you through it. Lots of AI news, lots of OpenAI news because there's new details, new discovery in the OpenAI vs Elon Musk lawsuit that's heating up. There's a whole bunch of scoops Greg was waiting for. Yes, for sure. For sure. There's a lot of crazy quotes. We're going to go through it all. Yeah. Because it's part of our job. We're going to go through both sides. We're going to do the Steel man for Sam. The steel man for Elon. Yeah. I would just say I have a lot of sympathy for Greg. This is like a night, you know, having your personal diary. It is sort of crazy. I mean, do we know it's his diary? We'll see. Elon's calling, framing it as a diary. I think you had the best take of the day so far, which is that this is the super bowl for Nick on X. Nick on X. Nik is having the best OpenAI's number one hater for three years. He's having a great time. He's having a great time. Anyway, let's take you through the linear lineup, tell you who we're having on the show today. Linear, of course, is the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise workspaces on Linear are using agents now. And we will be having the co founder and CEO, the founder and CEO of Athletic Brewing. We got the Athletic Brewing beers here in the studio. We got a lot of them. Pat Grady and Sonia Wong from Sequoia Capital coming on their co authors of 2026. This is AGI. Then we have Sean Frank emergency podcast. They put ads in ChatGPT, so we're calling the God of ads himself, Sean Frank, the CEO of Ridge. And then Alex from Higgs Field's coming back on the show to give us an update. They just hit 200. Absolutely. The fastest growing. So we're very excited for our guests. But we have about 90 minutes here to lock in. Talk about the two sides of the Elon vs OpenAI lawsuit. So let's kick it off with the Elon should lose side of the argument. I'm going to be Steel Manning. Sam Steel Manning. Greg, they did nothing wrong. Elon's wrong. He needs to back. Do you want your helmet? I need the steel man helmet for the whole thing. It might be too much. Maybe let's put it on the turbo puffer. But we'll just let everyone know that we're Steel Manning like crazy. Put it on the puffer. I'll wear it. Okay, you can wear it. Before we do, let me Steel man some superintelligence cloud, specifically Lambda Lambda is the superintelligence cloud. Building AI supercomputers for training and inference that scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands. So, okay, Elon made a donation to a non profit organization. He got a tax write off on that donation. And that nonprofit, OpenAI, the nonprofit, it's now one of the best funded nonprofits in history and it's still focused on the original mission. OpenAI, the nonprofit, it still exists. It has just a tiny hundred plus billion dollar position in a for profit company. They're going to be able to do nonprofit stuff forever. Whatever they want to do. If they want to hire researchers, if they want to write white papers, if they want to train their own models, the OpenAI nonprofit can do that. It's funded. Elon donated roughly $38 million alongside other donors who put in 90 million. There's some debate how much Elon put in. I saw one report that was around 45. It's in the tens of millions of dollars. And he was a large. According to. According to OpenAI, they believe that. I think their sort of optimistic belief is that the damages would be $38 million if they lose the original donation. If they lose. But I'm arguing right now that they're going to win. They're going to win. The jury's going to say not guilty. OpenAI did nothing wrong and here's why. So Elon, yeah, he was a big donor. He put up tens of millions of dollars. But play out the counterfactual. It's entirely reasonable to assume that things would have played out exactly the same even if Elon was never in the picture, even if he never donated. Sure. I mean the office would have had to be a little bit smaller. You're working with 90 million instead of 120 million. But we've seen folks raise 90 million Series B's. We've seen folks raise $120 million Series C's roughly the same company. You know, you pay people a little bit less, you have a few, few less perks. The office snacks aren't as good. Maybe you skimp on the 45 pound plates. You just get the 10 pound plates. These things happen. So if Elon had never donated, maybe Sam would have just stepped up his donation. He put in 10, you know, maybe he goes and leverages something. He's a non profit club. Yeah, yeah, he put in 10. He could have potentially sold more stock that he owned, taken a loan, sold Property, put the McLaren F1 up for sale. That's another $20 million he could pour in. He could have filled that gap or he could have hit, he could have hit the road. He's a good fundraiser. He could have gone out and gotten money from a variety of people. Reid Hoffman, Peter Thiel, Dustin Moskovitz, all put in money. There are more tech billionaires in that crowd that could have written a $1 million check. So Sam could have gotten 34 $1 million checks and filled the gap. So it's not like if Elon didn't donate, he wouldn't have, like OpenAI wouldn't exist. Right. It's totally possible that everything would have been the same and that the Elon donations were not make or break for, for OpenAI. So Elon should lose this case because everyone around the table came to the same realization at roughly the same time about the goal of creating AI responsibly. Basically, scaling laws ensured that AI progress would require vastly more capital than could ever be raised through donations. At a certain point, if you need $100 million for a nonprofit, you can do it if you're aligned with some of the world's richest people in tech, like Elon, Peter Thiel, the other folks that I mentioned. On the flip side, if you need $100 billion or you need $50 billion like OpenAI has already raised in the venture markets, that's just not going to happen in the nonprofit sector. Except it could have. Because if Elon really believed in the nonprofit mission and really said nonprofit or bust, yes, I see the scaling laws. Yes, I agree. We an insane amount of capital to get to AGI. Well, guess who has an insane amount of capital? Elon. If he wanted to, he could have said yes, I'm staying with the nonprofit strategy and I'm going to put up the 50 billion. Every dollar that OpenAI has raised in the venture markets could have been a dollar donated by Elon Musk if he sold down all the positions now. It's crazy. Never going to happen. Doesn't make any sense. Obviously, we're pro. I think the nonprofit transition makes a ton of sense in the context of raising that amount of money. I think that's a reality. And truthfully, I think that everyone around the table agreed about that. One thing that seemed clear here is there were a variety of different paths, but clearly a lot of big personalities in the room, a lot of ego. And it makes sense that eventually that just kind of blew up. Yeah. And so even if you were going to keep funding the nonprofit, you're going up against Google. They have an economic flywheel that will provide the amount of capital required to advance AI, build massive. They're a hyperscaler. They're going to build massive data centers. They're not going to have a problem with this. Google was set up to make investments at this level. At 10 billion of capex. Google's not blinking. The shareholders are all thumbs up on that. Very different. Remember when Sam was texting Elon, I think this was in 2023, saying, like, it pains me to see you attack OpenAI publicly. I think we can both agree it's important that Google doesn't own AI. And that's been one of the only things that throughout this whole process, they've stayed in agreement on. Yes, yes. So they want to create a counterbalance to Google specifically. And Elon actually agreed with this as they were shifting from maybe the nonprofit's not the ultimate way to win this AI race, this AI battle this AI future. Because Elon agreed, according to Greg Brockman in emails that he said he being Elon, said nonprofit was def. The right one early on, the right structure at the beginning, but may not be the right one now. So according to these leaks, it seems like Elon wasn't always all in on a nonprofit. He was maybe open to the idea of a for profit. And of course, that was a fork in the road. Elon did actually have the money to continue supporting OpenAI's nonprofit. Would have been crazy, but technically could have sold down positions. But Elon clearly agreed that OpenAI should build a for profit, and that's why he wanted equity. He wanted to be CEO. He was interested in OpenAI joining Tesla. Tesla's a for profit. He wasn't saying, we're going to bring OpenAI over to Tesla and the whole thing's going to be a nonprofit. Clearly, Elon is no purist about nonprofit AI research. He runs XAI. It's a direct competitor to OpenAI. He started it as a benefit corporation, which meant it had an obligation to deliver environmental and social benefits. But after the merger with X, that benefit corporation status was dropped entirely. This whole lawsuit is clearly just corporate lawfare. And the battle should be fought out in the financial markets, in the App store, on the open Internet, not the courtroom. Let the best product win. Let the best AI model win. Let the best team win. And so let's wrap this court case up and let OpenAI go and compete it out. They're fighting a war on five different fronts. Let them. Let them build. Let them cook. Yeah, that's the. It's worth noting that this is what. This is the. This is what winning, like today is what winning looks like for Elon if he gets a. If he gets like the damages awarded and he gets 38 million. Yeah. He's like, nice. Yeah. I can fund Xai for a week or even 20 billion if he gets like some points in OpenAI. Right? Yeah. He's like, great. This didn't. This is not a material jump in my net worth. My influence or power. Yeah. Whatever he's looking for, this doesn't really get me one step closer to Mars. Right. It doesn't necessarily align. So the wind state right now is just being disruptive. Right. Basically buying. Buying XAI time, putting OpenAI in a position where they are trying to go public. Right. And they've got this massive high profile trial going on. The helmet is really adding a lot to this conversation. I love it. The chat loves it too. Jordan in a night helmet is what winning looks like. Anyways, thinking. Yeah. Let me tell you about Plaid. Plaid Powers, the apps you use to spend, save, borrow, invest in securely connecting bank accounts to move money, fight fraud and improve lending. Now with AI, we have fireworks today. Fireworks for Plaid. I love it. I love five. Gets me fired up. This. This kind of. This reminded me today of the deal rippling lawsuit. Like the actual win state for this, like, deal rippling lawsuit is just rippling, like, like being a somewhat of an annoyance. Right. Both companies are going to continue. Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's no amount of money that's going to make Parker, like, happy. Right. But what. What will like, probably make him happy is just like making it harder for deal to go public. Yep. Right. Yeah. Did you see that line that apparently they were talking to Elon in one of these, like leaked emails and Elon's like I don't really care about money, but I do need, I do need $80 billion just handy in my back pocket for a city on Mars. It's like, it's like the most extreme being like, yeah, like I'm, I'm basically post economic. But there's like one more thing that I'm reaching for and it just happens to $80 billion more liquidity than anyone has ever had in history. And I just need it ready to go for when I land on Mars and want to build. I just need about 80 billion liquid. Just liquid, liquid. It would fix me. He says 80 billion liquid would fix me. In fact, even then I moved back to California because even if they're doing a 1% a year right, I can probably. Good. Okay, now let's argue the flip side. Elon Musk will win the OpenAI lawsuit. And before we tell you how and why Elon will win the OpenAI lawsuit, I'll tell you about Console. Console builds AI agents that automate 70% of it. HR and finance support giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. So Elon will win the OpenAI lawsuit. And he should. And he should, he should win this. Judge Gonzalez Rogers already rejected OpenAI's motion to dismiss. OpenAI wanted to throw this thing out, and the judge said no. The judge said, I think there's plenty of evidence that something happened here. Yes, it's all circumstantial, but that's how these things work. OpenAI was trying to kill the case before the trial even started. They're trying to get rid of this thing, but it's clear that Elon is onto something here. Okay, just look at the emails. Just look at the emails. It's so obvious that the OpenAI squad was trying to fleece Elon and push him out without giving him a fair share. Elon said, guys, I've had enough. This is a direct quote from Elon, email. Guys, I've had enough. This is the final straw. Either go do something on your own or continue with OpenAI as a nonprofit. Otherwise, I'm out. I'm not donating anymore. You guys, if you're going to do the for profit, just go start a normal company and wind this thing down. And that makes a ton of sense. It was an open invitation by him to just go build a traditional. And this is part of, part of the trial. Part of the trial and in this proceeding that I'm interested in is like finding out why they didn't just do that. Yeah, it's not like Sam and Greg couldn't have been like, cool. We worked on a non profit for a while. How do we set up a C corp? How do we set up. How do we set up a Sam? Sam's like, oh, I own like a couple points of stripe. Yeah, I think they have something called Atlas. You can just make a C corp. Maybe he forgot a few clicks. Maybe he just forgot. Oh, if I only remembered about Atlas. If there was, if there was like a very, very specific reason, like the nonprofit had developed some IP at that point, that meant that starting over or having to rebuild a team or whatever factor meant that that was like going to set them back years. Yes, that's a big deal. Yeah. And realistically, even you can't. There's no indentured servitude. You can't keep nonprofit employees working there. Why is the horse with a workhorse at OpenAI? Ilya Sutton Horse butt Clea was the workhorse at OpenAI. And you needed him to keep the excitement. Keep working. He developed a ton of the foundational technologies at OpenAI. And if he wanted to work at a nonprofit and you say, hey, we're leaving to go do a for profit, come over here. Who knows if he's going to come? And that applies to tons of different researchers that were instrumental in the development of what ultimately became ChatGPT and GPT 3 and 4. And so. So Elon gave them an invitation. Just go out and build a traditional venture backed company. Maybe I'll invest, maybe I'll be involved, maybe I won't. But at least we'll have a clean slate to start from. It would have been trivial to set up a new entity. As we discussed, you could start building a team and then you run the classic venture playbook. But Sam told Elon that he remained, quote, enthusiastic about the nonprofit structure. That was enough to get Elon to donate more. But OpenAI wasn't all in on staying in nonprofit mode. They were on the cusp of restructuring OpenAI and taking the $10 billion investment from Microsoft. See the reality of modern philanthropy, it's not fire. And forget big donors like Elon in this case do have specific intentions and conditions attached to the gifts. It's not like he's just throwing 20 bucks in the Salvation army donation box around Christmas. This is 30 something million. If you give that to a university and you want a building, they need to build that building. They probably need to build it to your specifications, even if you want to. Put your name on it. Yeah, they might even put your name on it. And you can dictate these things in a nonprofit donation, and you can ask that the donation is contingent on those results. You can pursue specific directions. He has every right to demand results. Yeah. And meanwhile, during this whole period, Greg is writing to himself allegedly, that he cannot say, we are committed to the nonprofit. Don't want to say that we're committed. If three months later we're doing B Corp and it was a lie, and then later saying, can't see us turning this into a for profit without a very nasty fight, his story will correctly be that we weren't honest with him in the end about still wanting to do the for profit just without him. Yeah. Before we continue our defense of Elon Musk, let's tell you about Cognition. They're the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. So a big part of this, if and why Elon is going to win, why he should win, is that you can't just have corporate structure, remorse, OpenAI. You can't pull the plug on promises made OpenAI's own certificates of incorporation. Talk about creating a company quote exclusively for charitable purposes with the technology being intended to benefit the public. What's exclusively charitable about raising venture to build a subscription app with ads? That's not charity. Why? Why are you doing that? Elon's right. Not only should Elon win this case against OpenAI, he will win this case. It's simple. A bunch of people, bunch of San Francisco elite tech guys, their fancy cars promised to build AI for Humanity. They took $38 million from one of their co founders based on that promise, then turned around and built a $500 billion for profit empire with Microsoft. It's a straightforward bait and switch story that will play well to 12 regular jurors in Oakland. And so that's the case. I mean, this is going to be the big challenge, finding 12 regular people. In Oakland extremely offline. How illegal is it to try to be on a jury? Extremely. Stop trying to get on the jury. Stop trying to get on the jury. Look, I said this. I'm going to vot. Yes. I'm going to vote in favor of whoever has the higher ARC AGI score. Okay. I'm just pro AI progress. Yes. Yes. I don't care at all about who wins. I just want better models. You just want better AI? Yeah. Whoever will build, whoever's scaling faster. Well, then I think you go with OpenAI. They have 50 billion in the bank. Dan in the chat's ready to Be a juror. We got to get somebody in the chat. Somebody in the chat. Got to get. Yeah, just live tweeting, get on in the corner while you're in jury. Just like, hey, guys. Yeah, in the chat. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, this is incredibly dramatic. We're going to hear a bunch of crazy storylines, learn a lot about the internal mechanics of both the elon Empire and OpenAI's world. But at the end of the day, OpenAI is signaling to investors, hey, the max damage is going to be 38 million, something like that. They did say it could be more. It could be more. Of course, it could always be more. It does feel like it won't be existential and it feels like it's more of a vibe war than maybe a true economic war. I mean, you could go back and argue that Elon should get pro rata equity at what it was effectively like a pre seed round that was done as a nonprofit. And that's 38 out of 120 that was raised in the nonprofit, something like that. So you give him a. Is there any precedent for a company going for a blockbuster IPO while having this like, lawsuit that is really going at the, like, foundation of the entity itself? Right. You can imagine a company going public where they're in some process, legal process, with a former executive or a specific customer or even a lender on some. I can't think of any deal. I can't think of anything this big ever happening. But OpenAI is a unique company and if anything, it's going to draw a lot of attention to the company. And yeah, it's interesting from the retail investor crowd, I think they're still going to be happy to be in this company even if this is all not settled. But it's really a question of is Wall street going to be on board? I think Wall street will underwrite it as there's a potential settlement that could be in the tens of millions, it could be in the billions. But at the same time, you just calculate an expected value, take that off the valuation that you've built up. And if you're bullish on the long term value and cash flow of the business you buy anyway, I think that's sort of what happens. Tyler. Okay, so I've been reading through some of the documents and so I just want to add some other details, please. So one thing is, I think I'm reading through, you can actually see the arguments being made. One of them is from the defense of OpenAI and that Elon actually didn't directly donate to OpenAI. He was basically indirectly through a donor advised fund through OpenAI's fiscal sponsor, YC. And so because it's not direct, the idea of the specific charitable purpose doesn't actually hold up and that it actually just defaults to OpenAI's. Yeah, because you donate to one entity and then that entity would have to make that claim. So their direct communication doesn't necessarily pull as much weight. And then so there's like, there's a bunch of pages about the history of like how you actually define these things. So it seems like it's going to just come down to extremely esoteric legal definitions of trust. Well, I think we're out of steel man mode. Jordy, of course, dons the steel man helmet whenever he's trying to steel man an argument. We thank you for putting up with our shenanigans and our props. Let me tell you about Vibe Co, where D2C brands, B2B startups and AI companies advertise on streaming TV, pick channels, target audiences and measure sales, just like on Meta. And speaking of ads, there's ads in ChatGPT. I liked Raghav in the chat saying they're putting ads in ChatGPT to help fund the trial. Oh, sorry, that was actually Dave. But Raghav did say OpenAI is nothing without its lawsuits, which I think is very funny. Anyway, you want to know, let's go. Through some, let's go through some of the leaks, let's go through some of the ad details. We also have Sean Frank from Ridge joining to break down the ad landscape, whether he will be advertising ridge wallets in ChatGPT anytime soon. Yeah, part of the last thing I would say there is part of OpenAI's defense is that through their actions they've created one of the most well capitalized foundations in history. Right. And I think that they're going to continue to lean on that. Novo Nordisk has a foundation themselves focused on biomedical research. And it's like it has. The estimate is that they have $167 billion. Okay. So that's why we're using the term one of the best funded. Because it's possible that the OpenAI nonprofit might not be the best funded in history. Although if the stock continues to rip, they will probably become the best funded in history. Well, there's a whole bunch of leaks news in the timeline. There's so many documents that hit the timeline that it brought down all of X and X actually crashed because so many people were logging on to read The Brockman files. Yeah. And there's one more quote that's worth reading through, which is that from the Greg files from Greg Gates. Another realization from this meeting is that it'd be wrong to steal the nonprofit from him to convert to a B corp without him. That'd be pretty morally bankrupt. Yeah, he's really not an idiot. Yeah, I mean, but that sounds like, you know, they were, like, it would be wrong to do that and by their admission, like, they would argue that they didn't steal it from him. The funny thing here is, like, the. And again, I love Greg and I feel bad that this is all coming out, but his very millennial coded writing, Brockman further wrote under the heading, our plan quote, it would be nice to be making the billions. Okay, I didn't see that one. That's a funny one. I do think that there's a very odd wrinkle where Elon didn't invest in the for profit when any of those rounds were going. Like, the ships were so big, thoroughly burnt to a crisp, that even when the new for profit was doing the round, he was not. There's at least we haven't seen a lot of emails or evidence saying, like, whoa, don't go with Microsoft. Like, at least give me right of first refusal. Let's do this at Tesla, and I'll be the financier and I'll take the equity. Like, I'm bullish on this. And, you know, you don't have to. I don't know how much that plays into the actual court case, but it is interesting just seeing like. Like once the ships were burned and the bridges were burned and the paths started to diverge, they never really resolidified. And you would think that if you wanted to continue, you would try and build a position one way or another, get some cap table ownership. It is odd that we're in a situation where Elon has zero equity in the OpenAI for profit. There were clearly many opportunities to get exposure, but again, bad blood. So who knows? Maybe at least Greg didn't go in front of Congress and say, I'm just doing this because I love it, because that would make these other notes on. It would be nice to be making the billions. Yeah, but. Oh, yeah, for sure. But the other interesting thing is that. Do we know where Sam Altman sits in terms of equity? It's been going back and forth. There isn't a number, but in one of the documents, I lost it, but it said he had indirect exposure via yc. Yeah. Into the for profit as well. Yes. Okay, so look through exposure there. But then in terms of like an actual grant, is there a number that's been thrown around? To my knowledge, nothing has been shared publicly other than the sort of idea of him getting around 7%. Okay. Okay. But yeah, that still feels low for co. Founder of a. You know. No, but that was happening. That's like. That's like a lot of happened by that point sense. But, you know, it's just like the Mark Zuckerberg or the Bill Gates or the, you know, or the Jeff Bezos scenario. I mean. Yeah. If anything, these. Yeah, these files make a lot of Elon's kind of antics, like, more understandable. Like, he's been the one saying that they're morally bankrupt. And here they just straight up say pretty morally bankrupt to steal the nonprofit from him. Yeah. Like. Yeah. I don't think anyone ever expected that language came out that was this specific about their moment to moment thinking during that point in time. Yeah. What's the phrase that Elon uses? Scam. Defaultman. Scamule. Scamule. Defaultman. The timeline is really so stupid. The portmanteaus. But I mean, one thing that is real is that it's very clear that at some point the core OpenAI team was like, it's either like Elon as CEO, financial backer, like, complete control. Like Greg Brockman said, this is the only chance we have to get out from Elon. Is he the glorious leader that I would pick? We truly have a chance to make this happen financially. What will take me to 1B? Which is interesting because, like, there are definitely people that have been taking to 1B alongside Elon with Elon in the glorious leader seat. Like, there are people on the Tesla train, There are people on SpaceX train where truly, like, they are completely hands off. Elon is the glorious leader of those companies. They don't have any control over Elon, but Elon has given them effectively billions and billions through either their direct work with the company or their investment in the company. Like, there's a whole bunch of ways that those two things could actually be very compatible. Yeah. But it would be weird, especially if you want more of an egalitarian organization, more of an equal board, more of a. Well, you look and you look at the. You look at the run that Sam has gone on. Yeah. And you can imagine a situation where they're sitting at a table and saying, this boardroom ain't big enough for the two of us. Yep. Right? Yep. And it really feels that way. Big egos. Yeah. Sam notoriously is able to draw in capital using many of the same sort of methods that Elon has. Yeah, I do think the financially what will take me to 1B? That's just a good question to ask. Everybody needs to be asking themselves this. Yes. This is something that should be taught in grade school really. I see people on Instagram reels all the time asking this question. Alex Hormozi, you know, makes reels about this. He's asking himself this question. The only other question is why aren't you asking yourself that question? You should, you should also get on 11 labs, build intelligent real time conversational agents. Reimagine human technology interaction with 11 labs, baby. Continuing with the timeline, a Federal judge denied OpenAI's motion for summary judgment. The case is going to trial and Tyler's moving to Oakland. Oakland, East Bay. Should we read through some of Alex Heath's coverage in Sources News and talk. About a scoop athlete that really given Scoop. I call him Scoop God really given Kylie over at Core Memory. I mean these two are just going head to head, right? Yeah, yeah. It is a knockout drag out fight for scoop athlete of the year but they're both doing great stuff and Alex read through thousands of Pages in Musk vs Altman so you don't have to. We'll go through some of the summary here. There's some news about Ilya Sutskever. Ilya had early concerns about treating Open Source AI as a sideshow in 2022. OpenAI's leaders seemed quite concerned about the prominence of Open Source the Open Source lab Stability AI. We don't talk about stable diffusion that often anymore, but I believe Stability AI was the team behind that. Right. Imad Mustach, I believe runs it. Sutskever voiced his worry over text with Murati and others. Sutskever My trepidation around Open Source is that we're treating it as a sideshow, eg def not going far enough to really hurt stability. So they're not taking it seriously. And if Open Source takes off, everyone could standardize on that. Vergov says bro, scooping harder than a Ben and Jerry's employee. Let's go. This is good. This is good. Alex, he's scooping harder than a Ben and Jerry's employee. We're gonna use that for now on. This is fantastic. Fantastic Marathi. Mira said we're missing the options standard. Mira is the real winner here. Yeah, she's winning today simply because the attention has shifted away from a good number of people leaving their own co. Founder Exodus Drama firings who knows what's happening, but good to have the narrative shift and the vibes move on to OpenAI versus Elon Musk. So Miram Moradi said, we're missing the opportunity to set standards with this massive growing group of developers. People are hungry to build things and we should lean in and bring our tech to as many people as possible long term, maximize our chance of maintaining lead, reducing competition. But if we do everything to get this in a couple of weeks at any cost out, because we heard stability is open, sourcing a similar model, that's not in line at all with my motivation. So reducing competition, never something you want to see in discovery, always something you want to see in a pitch meeting with a vc, but you usually don't want to put it in writing. OpenAI leaders were divided over early investor Reid Hoffman's decision to start a rival AI lab, Inflection. And Reid Hoffman's interesting because he was one of the big early donors, I believe maybe 10 million, something like that, in the millions. And he has not joined the lawsuit. He has not jumped in and said, hey, I need, I need equity in OpenAI. I'm also wrong to like, like Elon now. In order to make the claim that Elon's making, you need a lot more correspondence, a lot more proof of, you know, misleading around the donation. And I don't think Reid necessarily has that. But also he doesn't seem to be saber rattling about it. So there were already. They were also. Already. They were, they were also already considering prohibiting investors from backing competing labs from an October 2022 exchange. Sutzkiver. I guess I just felt betrayed by him founding a direct competitor while simultaneously telling me, quote, I could not possibly imagine you'd find it objectionable. And this is Inflection AI. Of course he'd find it Objection. Inflection AI, which was ultimately sort of like acquired by Microsoft licensing deal. Was that Mustafa Suleiman's company? I think Inflection Altman. Here's how I'd summarize my thoughts on this. Pros. He supported us in a moment when no one else would. And it was pretty existential. Okay, so we're learning more about the existentialness of certain donations when they came in during the OpenAI nonprofit era. There are times when if somebody didn't come on, come in and write a check, it would have been very, very rough for them. And Sam says Reid helped out at a key moment. I think OpenAI would have been pretty effed if he hadn't stepped up. Also, he was instrumental in getting the first Microsoft deal done and has generally been quite helpful with Microsoft related stuff. And he's generally a good board member. Cons he's very motivated by collecting status although I personally think he cares much more about OpenAI than inflection. He was blinded enough by the startup of being able to call himself the co founder of a company. He made an uncareful decision. Also at this point I think, I think at this point OpenAI has the leverage to ask for a soft promise for new investors not to invest in competitors. But only a select few companies ever get to do that and we heard stories of this during one of the bigger fundraisers where even Glean was targeted as something that they didn't want their investors to also invest in. They wanted you to be open AI ride or die of course. Tons of fun said I'd like a basket of labs actually I'm going to invest. I would like broad based exposure. I would like exposure. And so I'm doing SSI and thinking machines that I'm doing anthropic too. And I'm also on the board of Meta and I'm also investing in OpenAI and XAI. You got to get a little taste of all of them. Brockman chimes in. He says oh also an aside after talking to Sam Altman, I'm planning to meet Patrick Collison tomorrow and Demo DV3 will ask if he's interested in participating in the tender under the condition of not investing in AGI big model competitors. So we talked about the Brockman diary. Well yeah, the funny thing is he must like I'd find it hard to believe that he's not didn't get to 1 billion just off of Stripe. Obviously Stripe was much smaller back then, but Greg was a CTO of stripe from 2010 to 2015. Stripe was founded in 2010. He was there for certainly longer than a four year vest. So who knows. But we don't know about his consumption habits. He might have been selling off Stripe Equity as fast as possible. He might have been using shares to pay for coffee. It's like saying hey, I'll give you a forward contract. I'm losing shares if you give me a free cup of joe. Yeah, yeah. Satya Nadella was worried about Microsoft's position in AI when he started looking at OpenAI. Stripe was in 2017, Stripe was valued at 9.2 billion. Bunch of wee lads Stripe. From Satya Nadella's deposition, the question to Satya Nadella, the CEO of Microsoft, did you feel that Your progress was moving more slowly than you had liked. And the answer Satya Nadella says, I mean always as a CEO of a company, I feel my job is to sort of be dissatisfied with the rate of progress at all times. And so yes would be the answer. Which is both in the absolute sense, which is can we build products that are more capable in any particular domain? And also, you know, vis a vis competition. There were others achieving things that we looked at and said, hey, that's great. And also how can we make sure we're competitive with with it? And so Satya Nadella was obviously motivated to invest and now he has a huge stack of OpenAI shares ready to rock. Also, Satya Nadella almost wrote a book about an AI about AI called An Inflection Point. I think he definitely should write that book. That sounds amazing. According to an exhibit filed in the case, it was co written with Marco Ion City and was in development in 2023 from the first chapter on Wednesday, August 24, 2022, with the Pacific Northwest summer showing all of its beauty, Bill Gates hosted a dinner at his home in Lake Washington, just a few miles from Microsoft's campus. No longer a Microsoft board member or even Microsoft's largest shareholder, Bill remained the iconic co founder and trusted advisor of the company's senior technical leaders. Satya suggested the gathering, which included Chief Technology Kevin's Chief Technology Officer Kevin Scott and a handful of top researchers. Food and drinks would be served, but the main entree was a hush hush demo by OpenAI co founder Sam Altman on a forthcoming release of ChatGPT, powered by GPT4, an AI built on large language models. Bill had long encouraged researchers to develop a truly accomplished AI assistant, but had voiced his skepticism criticism about this particular approach. This sounds like I'm listening to an. Audible thank you CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is securing. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches, baby. That's right, CrowdStrike. So that would be fun. I hope that book gets published. It'd be fun to have some of those little stories about. We don't, I don't feel like we don't have enough oral histories of AI who was in the room at what time. I feel like there's a whole series of books to be written about OpenAI. I know that they're writing, they've written a few, but most of them are sort of these like skeptical drama pieces. I'd be much more interested in two different books. One would be the technical histories, like exactly what researchers were doing what, at what times? And also, I want to know the first feeling that was going through Ilya's head and what was the vibe when he said, like, I'm hitting the button and I'm running the training run. What would you think? You're just describing Doorkech's book. Yeah, but the Scaling Era, an oral History of AI 2019-2025. So. Yes. And he interviews Ilya. Yeah, yeah. So I hear you on that. Being a great tour of AI progress across labs. Yeah, I think I'm talking about within a single lab. Within a single lab. You're in the room account of, you know, narrow it just to like the GPT models. And so imagine the Scaling Era, but. Just for the progress, basically acquired episode. Yeah, there's that. I mean, isn't there news that there's a book on demoscience Hassibas, that's coming out about DeepMind? That's going to be fantastic. It's written by Sebastian Malabi, one of the goats of business writing. He wrote the Power Law, all about the history of Silicon Valley. I know that book is going to be incredible, but. So I'd be very interested in the research side, how the research developed, who was doing what, and then I'd also be interested in the financial side. I want to know, okay, how did this SPV actually get done? What were the terms on this? Who was jumping in, in this round at what terms? Who are they talking to? Who are their LPs? Were their LPs skeptical? We've talked to and seen a little bit of the other side of that. And then layering in all of this information from the deposition. Totally, totally. And some of this evidence that's come out that we read. And so there are a few writers that will take different cracks at the OpenAI story. I think the definitive book probably has yet to be written, but it will come. And hopefully Satya Nadella can play a role in that because he's such a key figure in the full story. Vanta Automate Compliance and Security. Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform. I like a foghorn. Microsoft beat out Amazon when it initially started working with OpenAI. Elon Musk was opposed to working with Jeff Bezos and rose the following. In an early email to Sam Altman, he said, I think Jeff is a bit of a tool and Satya is not. So I slightly prefer Microsoft, but I hate the marketing department. Altman responded that Amazon had started, quote, really dicking us around. Yeah, such a crazy line. He's like, I don't like his taste in champagne. Have you seen what that guy drinks in St. Barts? It's unacceptable. He should be taking it up another notch. And the sparklers, it's all, it's just over the top. Very vulgar. He knew he was going to get mocked. Yeah, yeah, true, true. Yeah, I like it. I like a Tesla tequila over St. Bart's champagne bathtub. I don't know. Credit to Jeff. He of course, was a bit more locked in during that era. So the upside on Microsoft's initial 1 billion dollar investment in OpenAI was cap to 500 billion. Hopefully they hit that gap. From a filing written by Musk's lawyers in November 2018. After dinner with Sam Altman, Scott told Nadella that OpenAI's new corporate structure offered both, quote, a commercial vehicle for monetizing OpenAI IP and investment returns capped at 500 billion. That's not bad. A 500x bagger is going to move the needle for Microsoft for sure. Altman claimed the nonprofit would eventually benefit because though OpenAI has yet to make a single dollar in returns, if OpenAI ever does get to 500 billion in returns, the balance over that goes directly to the 501C3. That's exciting. Microsoft's board initially approved a capital investment of 2 billion, but ultimately decided to limit its initial investment to 1 billion in the hopes that a smaller Investment would press OpenAI to commercialize. Satya. Hey, we got it. We can't give them too much. Let's put bit a little fire under them. Let's make sure that they're, they're thinking, thinking about dollars, dollars and cents. Well, you see what you've seen. You've seen what happened with thinking machines. Give somebody 2 billion. Maybe less pressure to commercialize, maybe, maybe more money on weight. On weight. Weight racks. Yes. Yes. In exchange for its investment, Microsoft received a convertible limited partnership interest and rights to OpenAI's profits, with returns capped at 2,000 of its $1 billion investment. Microsoft CFO noted in an internal email that the cap is actually larger than 90% of public companies. And the limit on Microsoft's profits is not terribly constraining nor terribly altruistic. In fact, it was a good investment at Microsoft's request. True, OpenAI agreed to keep any mention of Microsoft's promise 2000% of return on its investment out of its public announcement. Imagine going to some someone and pitching them, oh, we'll give you a 2000% return and then actually delivering it. What a crazy, crazy story. Gusto. The United platform for payroll benefits and HR built to evolve with modern small and medium sized businesses. Get on it. Make. Stop making excuses. The second update to Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI in 2021 included another $2 billion investment that wasn't reported and came with a lower upside. This is also a filing from Musk's lawyers. In March of 2021, Microsoft quietly invested another $2 billion in OpenAI. Neither OpenAI nor Microsoft publicly announced the investment, which was subject to a lower 6x return multiple. In place of its 2019 license to a single OpenAI model, Microsoft secured rights to commercialize any OpenAI model developed during the term of the agreement except AGI, facilitating its commercial use of OpenAI's IP. Microsoft was permitted to embed up to 10 of its employees on site at OpenAI. That's interesting. Anticipating increased product commercialization, Microsoft and OpenAI agreed to share any resulting revenue. Just three months later, in June of 2021, Microsoft released GitHub Copilot, its first product incorporating OpenAI's technology. Well, there are many, many more scoops in this piece by Alex Heath over at Sources News. So I encourage you you to go subscribe, go sign up for his substack and read the full thing for yourself because there's a lot of interesting stuff going on. But we should move on to the timeline. There's so much more news. Let's find some post to run through. Everyone is having fun with financially. What will take me to 1B sitting on the edge of the bed. I love it. Feet up. You got it. You got to be asking yourself this. It's just so clear. This could have saved OpenAI from Elon. And it's a diary with a lock on it. I think the diary framing is like woefully wrong. That's probably the worst part of this whole thing is because most of the, most of the thoughts that Greg's putting out are completely reasonable. It's like, yeah, we shouldn't screw this guy over. Do we really want him to have complete authority? These are all reasonable things to, to be thinking out loud. It's just when you write them down, they get recontextualized in the courtroom. And then the fact that it's framed as a diary. Very questionable. Probably. I don't think it makes Greg look that bad because he wasn't ultimately. It's not like he was like secretly Sam's puppet master. No, no, no. And a lot of this went back and forth and there were lots of opportunities for both sides to yield. It was like a long ongoing Negotiation, but everyone's picking their sides. Owen Sparks says case closed. Elon has open AI dead to rights. Based on this quote here. He wrote, can't see us turning this into a for profit without a very nasty fight. I'm just thinking about the office and we're in the office. And his story will correctly be that we weren't honest with him in the end about still wanting to do the for profit just without him. So bad blood. That's a bad one. That's a bad one. We will see. Anyway, we should move on from all this. Are there any other things in the timeline that we should run through here? Elon says they stole a charity, plain and simple. They're really on the. For all the jurors. They're really going to have to. I imagine you get if it's Oakland, 12 people on the jury, I guess, like four of them are driving Teslas. They're really gonna have to go check all the cars, make sure they don't have the bought this before Elon went crazy. Yeah. Bumper sticker on. They're gonna have to throw those. Those candidates. Well, they should also throw out any jurors that show up in Koenigseggs because they're probably in the Koenigsegg owner meetup and there are cars and coffee and they're like. Well, yeah, I mean, like, I don't really like. I don't like electric cars. Okay. I do have a bias against electric cars. I need a V12 and anyone who drives a V12, I'm gonna give them some leeway. I'm gonna give them some leeway. The thing about a Koenigsegg owners meetup is that a lot of them are probably not driving the Koenigsegg because they don't work that well. They're not reliable. Frequently, it's been frequently reported that they're not quite reliable. The one day you get it to. Start cars and copies. There's paparazzi there taking pictures of you. Just one of the chances. Seriously, it's the worst luck. The one day. The worst luck. The worst luck. Anyway, Sentry, good luck for your systems. Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast. That's why 150,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working. Elon Holmar's catalog was asking ChatGPT. Yeah. What what ChatGPT thinks. And it says, if I were grading this purely as an analyst, not as an OpenAI model, the documents are legitimately bad. Brockman notes not ambiguous. I was asking, I was asking Claude about this and it was very funny because it does. You can't not read into it like you're talking to someone at Anthropic because it's taking shots at both of them being like, oh, well, like, you know, Elon has XAI and that's a for profit, so he's a hypocrite. And like, maybe that's just objectively true and the model's just, you know, accurate. But it's funny just reading it in Claude's voice being like, Claude's sitting there being like, I don't like either of these companies. Anyway. One more post. One more post. Elon said yesterday, we talked about this yesterday, he was quoting the Kalshee odds on his case against OpenAI and he's what are they? I've lost a few battles over the years, but I've never lost a war. I think that what this comes down to, though is like, what is the same thing as, like, what is winning the AI race actually look like with China? What is, what is Elon winning against OpenAI? So the odds now it's 68% chance will Elon win his case against OpenAI? That's up from 34% back in January, January 14th, just a few days ago. And so this new trove really did move the market, at least on Kalshi. So we will see where this goes. If the U.S. district Court in Northern California sides with Elon Musk in Musk vs Altman before January 1, 2027, then the market results to yes, of course, this doesn't take into account appeals, which will obviously happen. And there's always the chance that there's a settlement before this. Although I think it feels like we're just past all that and we are fully in. It's going to trial, there's going to be some drama, there's going to be some courtroom sketches. So get ready because it's going to be, it's going to be beautiful. And I wonder who they're going to call to testify. A whole bunch of people will be. Will be on the stand, presumably Joe Wiesenthal. What's he saying? He is highlighting Goldman raising 16 billion in record Wall street bank bond sale. Joe Wiesenthal says right here, right here, here. Toss to me, toss to me. Joe. Finally some good news. Huge congrats to Goldman Sachs. I've been following them a long time. The whole team and culture is so impressive. I can't wait to see where they're going and what they do Next. Yes, yes, yes. Goldman's really just getting started. They are. They're really just. Today's really just day one. It's day one. It's day one for Goldman. Willmanitis. He thinks of Goldman as kind of the ideal firm. Right? He has this idea of firm versus company. Yes, yes. Where the company is just the people. The firm is the core ethos. Sure, sure, sure. And Goldman is kind of the perfect firm. There are some absolute dogs over there. We talked about it a bunch, but one of the most legendary things going into the financial crisis, they know that real estate's going to sell off. They sell their corporate headquarters and lease it back for 10 years. They're not exposed to the financial risk of their building. You got to be careful if you're on the other side of a deal. If they're selling, why, why are you buying? Yeah, that's a good question. But fantastic firm, fantastic results from them. And congrats, Joe. And speaking of the financial market, you got to get in on them with public.com investing for those tickets. Seriously. Stocks, options, crypto bonds, Treasuries and more with incredible customer service. Joe has some more news. Yes. He's newsmaxing some news out of AP Beijing. Breaking with the United States. Canada. Canada has agreed to cut its 100% tariff on Chinese electric cars in return for lower. Lower tariffs on Canadian farm products, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Friday. Carney made the announcements after two days of meetings with Chinese leaders. He said there would be an initial annual cap of 49,000 vehicles on Chinese EV exports, growing to about 70,000 over five years. China will reduce its total tariffs on canola seeds a major. Okay, yeah. Canola oil. They're getting seed oil. They're like, we gotta have them. Okay. Okay. Maybe this is part of a grander strategy. Oh. He's like, yeah, this is our version of fentanyl. So he actually did. Carney said that Canada's partnership with China sets US Canada up well for the New World Order. So this is. The CEDAWS are the first step. Yeah. That was a crazy quote. That was a crazy quote. When I first saw that, I saw the video, I was like, okay. Like, yeah. Funny, deep. Fake. Yeah. Prime Minister saying, like, New World Order. We're excited for this New World Order, but it was real. Yeah. In other electric car news, Ford and BYD are in talks for car batteries. Let's give it up for some talks. US Car makers need Ford. The US Carmaker needs more batteries for hybrid vehicles because it's shifting away from the full EVs. You know, they canceled the Ford Lightning, but they are going to do a lot of hybrids and so they need a lot of batteries and they're calling up BYD to help with it. Ford and BYD are going to do a partnership or they're in discussions for it, in which the American carmaker would buy batteries from the Chinese auto company for some of Ford's hybrid vehicle models, according to people familiar with the matter. The two companies are still discussing how the arrangement would work. One idea is that Ford would import batteries from BYD to Ford's factories outside of the U.S. some of the people said talks continue and it's possible a deal won't materialize. The tie up, if completed, would pair forward with the largest Chinese car company that has struck fear in much of the auto industry over its ability to produce affordable models that carry sophisticated technology. For Ford, it solves a problem as the company pulls back from electric vehicles and ramps up its lineup of hybrids, it needs a battery supplier, and BYD is able to produce high quality car batteries. We talk to lots of companies about many things, a Ford spokesman said. A BYD spokesman declined to comment. That's a good comment. We talk to a lot of people about a lot of things. Why are you focusing on the Chinese batteries today? Stop calling me Ryan Felton from the Wall Street Journal. Move on. I talk to a lot of people. Before becoming one of the world's biggest carmakers in the world, BYD developed a robust battery manufacturing business, including batteries for hybrid models. It currently produces most batteries in China, but the company is building a up capacity in its overseas plants as it expands to markets such as Southeast Asia, Europe and Brazil. Bernstein research estimated that BYD's battery shipments rose 47% last year to 286 gigawatt hours. President Trump's trade adviser, Peter Navarro, criticized the idea on X. He said, so Ford wants to simultaneously prop up a Chinese competitor's supply chain and make it more vulnerable to the same supply chain extortion. What could go wrong here? That's Peter Navarro on X, the trade advisor. Last month, Ford said it would pivot away from making electric vehicles in the face of slumping demand and take an expected $19.5 billion in charges primarily tied to its EV business. So very interesting news. Anyway, let's move on to the next big story of the day. But first, let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is a platform commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social on marketplaces and now with AI agents. Agents so. And relevant because the day has finally come not to see ads in chat gbt. That's true. But they're coming. They're coming. We're no longer in talks. We're no longer in advanced talks. We're talking about. In the coming weeks, OpenAI plans to start testing ads in ChatGPT Free and Go tiers. It's go time. Go tiers. ChatGPT Go. They said we're sharing our principles early on how we'll approach ads, guided by putting user trust and transparency first as we work to make AI accessible to everyone. We gotta check in with Mark Cuban. With Mark Cuban. But they say what matters Most responses in ChatGPT will not be influenced by ads. That is, there's a firewall. There's a firewall. Editorials over here, ad sales is over here. They don't interface with each other at all. And so the models that generate the responses will not be aware of who's advertising on what. But this seems extremely easy to do technically. Extremely good for product reliability. It's what the consumer wants. They want. You want to know when you go to Google, if you scroll down far enough, you eventually get past the ads and you see the real results. And you're going to want that in your LLM. Even if there's an ad up at the top or in the middle, as long as it's clearly labeled, which they say they will be. So ads will always be separate and clearly labeled. Your conversations are private from advertisers. Plus, pro, business and enterprise tiers will not have ads. So I'm gonna have to downgrade. Yeah. Because I'm on the Pro $200 a month tier. But I want ads. I want to experience the ad products. So everybody's got to downgrade. But I think they're gonna be making way more than 200amonth off me on ads. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. They're gonna be advertising crazy stuff to me. They're going to be. Every other. Every other result is going to be Koenigsegg. Here's a McLaren F1 in your. In your area. You can go pick it up right now. It's going to be insane. Yeah, so. So people have been so concerned, specifically Mark Cuban. We obviously had him on the show to talk about this last year about this idea of like ads showing up in the results. And part of it, the reason I was never that concerned is like, if I just search best backpack for men, which is kind Of a joke in itself because it's gonna tell you Ridge, but. Well, a man shouldn't wear a backpack in the first place. So sorry to any backpack super fans out there. Oh, you're not a man yet. You're not 21. Oh, true. So you're good. You got. You got. Enjoy your backpack years. Yeah. You should switch to a stainless steel briefcase that you handcuff to your hand. That's the correct thing for someone of your stature, someone of your importance. You gotta. You got important stuff carrying around backpack. When I search best backpack for men, I can scroll down and find a Reddit result from. It's the second result after Nordstrom. Sure. But they also serve me a bunch of ads. I don't assume that the best backpack for men is the first ad. Right. It's not like when it's clearly labeled and separated. I just assume this is an ad for somebody that sells backpacks. Yeah, but now I'm aware of that particular backpack. Yeah, maybe. So I think it's fairly aligned, right? Yeah. That's why I don't search like best backpack for men. I search best. Highest margin. Highest margin backpack. Men's backpack. Because you appreciate from the business of the business. Yeah. You want to support business. Yeah. And then, and then. So I want to know what's the highest margin backpack for whoever I'm buying from. Then I go to shopping tab and then it tells me, okay, this is the highest margin one. If you want to support that corporation, make sure the most number of dollars flow to their shareholders. This is the backpack you should buy back in. The chat says he uses a Spiderman lunchbox. I can appreciate Spider man lunchbox. Soon you'll be able to generate Sora of Spiderman in ChatGPT. It'll serve you an ad for that Spiderman lunchbox and the virtuous cycle of Commerce will continue. MongoDB Choose a database built for flexibility and scale with best in class embedding models and re rankers. MongoDB has what you need to build what's next. Anyways, so plus pro, business and enterprise tiers will not have ads. Yes, super disappointing. They need to hammer, hammer, hammer the first bullet point here. Responses in ChatGPT will not be influenced by ads. We know that this is what they're going to do. Technically it makes sense. It's completely the industry standard. Everyone in tech knows that this is how it works. But consumers will have all sorts of conspiracy theories. I mean, remember how big the whole like. Like Facebook listens to your audio and then targets Ads off of that. And there's been so many, like viral conspiracy theories around how ads work, how monetization works on these platforms. There's gonna be a huge amount of just noise out there basically saying that ChatGPT is polluted by ads, overly influenced by ads. And so they need to beat that drum really, really hard. It's good that they're doing it on the main account. It's good that they're doing with Fiji CMOs post, but they're going to have to, they're gonna have to emphasize this in comms on every podcast that they do, every announcement. Yeah, people seem to be really riled up about this. I'm seeing a bunch of comments on the post. They're upset. I don't get it at all. The whole point is that ads, ads have made it so that wonderful services on the Internet have been free for decades. They're generally aligned. Even target people report they like targeted ads. It's annoying getting an ad that's not targeted. Yeah, like, why are you. Why are you wasting my time? I agree. This is funny. Somebody in here says some poor fifth grade teacher grading the worst World War II paper ever turned in when it suddenly starts talking about World of Tanks in North. Just copy pasting the ads. Honestly. Maybe that's a feature though, you know, because you get two impressions. Two impressions? Yeah, there's going to be some hilarious hallucinations where someone's reading from their press release and they accidentally have an ad in there. Oh, that's going to be amazing. I love it. I love it. Well, the Wall Street Journal had a little bit of an Overview on this OpenAI to begin testing ads in ChatGPT and push for fresh revenue. The company will be showing ads in the free version of the Chatbot as well as its. Let's give it up for fresh revenue. Fresh revenue ads will appear at the bottom of ChatGPT's answers and be labeled interesting. The bottom of the answer, I want it at the top and the middle and the bottom. And I also definitely want to show the ads while it's thinking, because you can run an ad auction and show an ad while you're waiting. I mean, Uber's done this while you're waiting for the car. There's no reason why that shouldn't be there, especially if you're doing a deep research report or anything. I do wonder how the ads will surface in the audio summary. So if you fire off a deep research report, it throws an ad at the end. If you're listening to that Audio, Will that play the ad at the end? Will that sound like a podcast ad or will it sound like something else? Like, will it be clunky? I'm assuming that they're not doing audio in these. Right. Imagine if you do a Google search and it pops up a video. It's like trying to play sound. It's annoying. It could be you'd be throwing your laptop. Yeah, yeah, but I mean, a lot of times people will go to ChatGPT, fire off a query, and then when the query comes back, they will just hit the play the audio button. And will it read the ad as well? I don't know. Maybe. But the company said ads wouldn't influence the chatbots answers, of course. And that user conversations wouldn't be sold to advertisers. That also makes a lot of sense. Also, advertisers don't really. Well, to be clear, like, they will. I'm my understanding is they will use what they know about you to offer better targeted ads to advertisers. They're just saying they won't explicitly be like, hey, we have. Here's this person's email and here's what they like and actually sell that specific. Or even. There's not even an option to go to OpenAI and say, hey, I'd like to buy 10,000 conversations about backpacks. That's not an option. What you can say is, you can say, I have a backpack. Find me some customers who want to buy backpacks. And they will say, sure, we'll do that. And we will go into the black box and sort and match you and give you the lowest cost per acquisition. You tell us that, that you're willing to pay five bucks per customer, $2 per customer. We'll get you $2 customers, we'll do our best. This is the auction model. Yeah. And the thing is, companies don't want. If you are a business owner, you should be incredibly excited about this. Yes. Every time a major new ad platform has come out, it is an opportunity to drive a tremendous amount of growth really, really quickly because they typically under. Under price. Under price the ads in the short room, in the short run, just to get volume, just to get a lot of customers in. And so when Sean Frank comes on later, we can talk with him about this. I remember, like, early days of like Snapchat advertising, like Connor over at the Ridge was like getting like, tremendous, tremendous results. Right. Yeah. Cisco. Cisco is critical infrastructure for the AI era. Thank you to Cisco for powering tdpn. Dean Ball is back on the timeline. We know Dean Ball. We know Dean Ball. He says flowers. No way. Reacting to the screenshot that flowers hint at math before numerals. Pottery made by people of the Halifian culture who inhabited northern Mesopotamia between 6200 and 5500 BC painted flowers with 4, 8, 16, 32 petals. Some of them have 64 petals. They were obsessed with exponential growth. They were obsessed with compounding. The power of compounding. It's the Claude logo. It is the Claude logo. That's hilarious. I love it. It's amazing. Anyway, graphite. Graphite.dev graphite code review for the age of AI graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. Where would you like to go next? Has a fantastic post. Says, had dinner with wife at a Mexican restaurant last night. Looked at the menu. They were trying to raise prices from $18 to $24 for her favorite entree. Wife was like, I think we can have Claude make this old waitress trying to gouge us. They done one week Sprint. Claude cloned and replaced cochinits carnitas. Restaurant manager freaks out. How do we solve this? This is gonna happen so much in 2026. Just telling the restaurant owner that you're gonna do it at home. We cloned your entree with Claude. We cloned you. We cloned it. We cloned it. I just cloned it. This is pretty funny. Jeff Huber sharing this post from R. Teacher. Every year these kids come back with a new annoying quirk. Quad boys are apparently the new thing. In my 10th year of teaching, mostly freshmen. Ever since.
You're surrounded by journalists. Hold your position. Strike 1. Strike 2, Activate. Go, go. The Retriever. Trust. Market clearing order inbound five. I see multiple journalists on the horizon. Founder, You're watching TVPN. Today is Friday, January 16, 2026. We are live from the TVP and Ultradome. The temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital, El capital de capital. Happy Tall. Let's tell you about Ramp times. Money baby Save Both Easy use, corporate cards, bill payments, accounting and a whole lot more all in one place. It is the goat of fintech. Fintech Goat. Bunch of news today. Lots of people dropping stuff on Fridays. What's the meaning behind that? I don't know, but we'll take you through it. Lots of AI news, lots of OpenAI news because there's new details, new discovery in the OpenAI versus Elon Musk, Musk lawsuit that's heating up. There's a whole bunch of scoops Greg was waiting for. Yes, for sure, for sure. There's a lot of crazy quotes. We're going to go through it all. Yeah. Because it's part of our job. We're going to go through both sides. The steel man for Sam. The steel man for Elon. Yeah. And I would just say I have a lot of sympathy for Greg. This is like a night, you know, having your personal diary. It is sort of crazy. I mean, do we know it's his diary? Elon's calling, framing it as a diary. I think you had the best take of the day so far, which is that this is the super bowl for Nick on X. Nick on X. Nik is having the best OpenAI's number one hater for three years. He's having a great time. Anyway, let's take you through the linear lineup, tell you who we're having on the show today. Linear, of course, is the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise workspaces on Linear are using agents now. And we will be having the co, founder and CEO, the founder and CEO of Athletic Brewing. We got the Athletic Brewing beers here in the studio. We got a lot of them. Pat Grady and Sonia Wong from Sequoia Capital coming on their co authors of 2026. This is AGI. Then we have Sean Frank emergency podcast. They put ads in ChatGPT, so we're call the God of ads himself, Sean Frank, the CEO of Ridge. And then Alex from Higgs Field's coming back on the show to get us hit. 200 million of arrast is growing. So we're very excited for our guests. But we have about 90 minutes here to lock in talk about the two sides of the Elon vs OpenAI lawsuit. So let's kick it off with the Elon should lose side of the argument. I'm going to be steel manning. Sam Steel Manning. Greg, they did nothing wrong. Elon's wrong. He needs to back up. Do you want your helmet? I need the steelman helmet for the whole thing. It might be too much. Maybe let's put it on the turbo puffer. But we'll just let everyone know that we're steel manning like crazy. Put it on the puffer. I'll wear it. Okay, you can wear it. Before we do, let me steel man some superintelligence cloud. Specifically Lambda Lambda is the superintelligence cloud, building AI supercomputers for training and inference that scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands. So, okay, Elon made a donation to a nonprofit organization. He got a tax write off on that donation. And that nonprofit, OpenAI, the nonprofit, it's now one of the best funded nonprofits in history. And it's still focused on the original mission. OpenAI, the nonprofit, it still exists. It has just a tiny hundred plus billion dollar position in a for profit company. They're going to be able to do nonprofit stuff forever. Whatever they want to do. If they want to hire researchers, if they want to write white papers, if they want to train their own models, the OpenAI nonprofit can do that. It's funded. Elon donated roughly $38 million alongside other donors who put in 90 million. There's some debate over how much Elon put in. I saw one report that was around 45. It's in the tens of millions of dollars. And he was a large donor. According to OpenAI. They believe that. I think their sort of optimistic belief is that the damages would be $38 million if they lose the original donation. If they lose. But I'm right now that they're going to win. They're going to win. The jury is going to say not guilty. OpenAI did nothing wrong. And here's why. So Elon, yeah, he was a big donor. He put up tens of millions of dollars. But play out the counterfactual. It's entirely reasonable to assume that things would have played out exactly the same. Even if Elon was never in the picture, even if he never donated. Sure. I mean, the office would have had to be a little bit smaller. You're working with 90 million instead of 120 million. But we've seen folks raise 90 million Series B's we've seen folks raise $120 million. Series C's roughly the same company. You know, you pay people a little bit less, you have a few less perks. The office snacks aren't as good. Maybe you skimp on the 45 pound plates. You just get the 10 pound plates. These things happen. So if Elon had never donated, maybe Sam would have just stepped up his donation. He put in 10. Maybe he goes and leverages something. Non profit club. Yeah, yeah, he put in 10. He could have potentially sold more stock that he owned, taken a loan, sold Property, put the McLaren F1 up for sale. That's another $20 million he could pour in. He could have filled that gap. Or he could have hit the. He could have hit the road. He's a good fundraiser. He could have gone out and gotten money from a variety of people. Reid Hoffman, Peter Thiel, Dustin Moskovitz, all put in money. There are more tech billionaires in that crowd that could have written a $1 million check. So Sam could have gotten 34 $1 million checks and filled the gap. So it's not like if Elon didn't donate, he wouldn't have, like OpenAI wouldn't exist. Right. It's totally possible that everything would have been the same and that the Elon donations were not make or break for OpenAI. So Elon should lose this case because everyone around the table came to the same realization at roughly the same time about the goal of creating AI responsibly. Basically, scaling laws ensured that AI progress would require vastly more capital than could ever be raised through donations. At a certain point, if you need $100 million for a nonprofit, you can do it if you're aligned with some of the world's richest people in tech like Elon, Peter Thiel, the other folks that I mentioned. On the flip side, if you need $100 billion or you need $50 billion like OpenAI has already raised in the venture markets, that's just not in the nonprofit sector. Except it could have, because if Elon really believed in the nonprofit mission and really said nonprofit or bust, yes, I see the scaling laws. Yes, I agree. We'll need an insane amount of capital to get to AGI. Well, guess who has an insane amount of capital. Elon. If he wanted to, he could have said yes, I'm staying with the nonprofit strategy and I'm going to put up the 50 billion. Every dollar that OpenAI has raised in the venture markets could have been a dollar donated by Elon Musk. If he sold down all the positions now. It's crazy. Never going to happen. Doesn't make any sense. Obviously, we're pro. Like, I think the nonprofit transition makes a ton of sense in the context of raising that amount of money. I think that's a reality. And truthfully, I think that everyone around the table agreed about that. And so one thing that seemed clear here is there. There were a variety of different paths, but clearly a lot of big personalities in the room, a lot of ego. And it makes sense that eventually that just kind of blew up, right? Yeah. And so even if you were going to keep funding the nonprofit, you're going up against Google. They have an economic flywheel that will provide the amount of capital required to advance AI, build massive. They're a hyperscaler. They're going to build massive data centers. They're not going to have a problem with this. Google was set up to make investments at this level. At 10 billion of capex, Google's not blinking. The shareholders are all thumbs up on that. Very different. Remember when Sam was texting Elon? I think this was in 2023, saying, like, it pains me to see you attack OpenAI publicly. I think we can both agree it's important that Google doesn't own AI. And that's been one of the only things that throughout this whole process, they've stayed in agreement on. Yes, yes. So they want to create a counterbalance to Google specifically. And. And Elon actually agreed with this as they were shifting from maybe the nonprofit's not the ultimate way to win this AI race, this AI battle, this AI future. Because Elon agreed, according to Greg Brockman in emails that he said he, being Elon, said nonprofit was deaf. The right one early on, the right structure at the beginning, but may not be the right one now. So according to these leaks, it seems like Elon wasn't always all in on a nonprofit. He was maybe open to the idea of a for profit. And of course, that was a fork in the road. Elon did actually have the money to continue supporting OpenAI as a nonprofit. Would have been crazy, but technically could have sold down positions. But Elon clearly agreed that OpenAI should build a for profit, and that's why he wanted equity. He wanted to be CEO. He was interested in OpenAI joining Tesla. Tesla's a for profit. He wasn't saying, we're going to bring OpenAI over to Tesla and the whole thing's going to be a nonprofit. Clearly, Elon is no purist about nonprofit AI research. He runs XAI. It's a direct competitor to OpenAI. He started it as a benefit corporation, which meant it had an obligation to deliver environmental and social benefits. But after the merger with X, that benefit corporation status was dropped entirely. This whole lawsuit is clearly just corporate lawfare. And the battle should be fought out in the financial markets, in the App Store, on the open Internet, not the courtroom. Let the best product win. Let the best AI model win. Let the. Let the best team win. And so let's wrap this. Let's wrap this court case up and let OpenAI go and compete it out. They're fighting a war on five different fronts. Let them build, let them cook. Yeah. It's worth noting that this is what, this is the. This is what winning like today is what winning looks like for Elon. If he gets a. If he gets like the damages awarded and he gets 38 million. Yeah, he's like, nice, yeah, I can fund XI for a week. Or even if he gets 20 billion. If he gets like some points in OpenAI. Yeah, right? Yeah. He's like, great. This didn't. This is not a material jump in my net worth, my influence or power, whatever he's looking for. This doesn't really get me one step closer to Mars. Right. It doesn't necessarily align. So the wind state right now is just being disruptive. Right. Basically buying. Buying XAI time, putting OpenAI in a position where they are trying to go public. Right. And they've got this massive high profile trial going on. The helmet is really adding a lot to this conversation. I love it. The chat loves it too. Jordan and Knight helmet is what winning looks like. Anyways, really thinking. Yeah. Let me tell you about Plaid. Plaid powers the apps you use to spend, save, borrow, invest in securely connecting bank accounts to move money, fight fraud and improve lending. Now with AI, we have fireworks today. Fireworks for Plaid. I love it. I love Plaid. Gets me fired up. This kind of. This reminded me today of the deal rippling lawsuit where like the actual win state for this deal rippling lawsuit is just rippling being somewhat of an annoyance. Right. Both companies are going to continue. There's no amount of money that's going to make Parker happy. Right. But what will probably make him happy is just making it harder for deal to go public. Did you see that line that apparently they were talking to Elon in one of these leaked emails and Elon's like, I don't really care about money, but I do need $80 billion just handy in my back pocket for a city on Mars. It's like the most extreme Being like, yeah, I'm basically post economic, but there's like one more thing that I'm reaching for and it just happens to be $80 billion more liquidity than anyone has ever had in history. And I just need it ready to go for when I land on Mars and want to build. I just need about 80 billion liquid, just liquid liquid. It would fix me. He says, 80 billion liquid would fix me. In fact, even then I moved back to California because even if they're doing a 1% a year right, I can probably get. Okay, now let's argue the flip side. Elon Musk will win the OpenAI lawsuit. And before we tell you how and why Elon will win the OpenAI lawsuit, I'll tell you about Console. Console builds AI agents that automate 70% of it. HR and finance support giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. So Elon will win the OpenAI lawsuit. And he should. And he should. He should win this. Judge Gonzalez Rogers already rejected OpenAI's motion to dismiss. OpenAI wanted to throw this thing out and the judge said no. The judge said, I think there's plenty of evidence that something happened here. Yes, it's all circumstantial, but that's how these things work. OpenAI was trying to kill the case before the trial even started. They're trying to get rid of this thing, but it's clear that Elon is onto something here. Okay, just look at the emails. Just look at the emails. It's so obvious that the OpenAI squad was trying to fleece Elon and push him out without giving him a fair share. Elon said, guys, I've had enough. This is a direct quote from Elon email. Guys, I've had enough. This is the final straw. Either go do something on your own or continue with OpenAI as a nonprofit. Otherwise I'm out. I'm not donating anymore. You guys, if you're going to do the for profit, just go start a normal company and wind this thing down. And that makes a ton of sense. It was an open invitation by him to just go build a traditional. And this is part of the trial, part of the trial. And this proceeding that I'm interested in is like finding out why they didn't just do that. Yeah, it's not like Sam and Greg couldn't have been like, cool, we worked on a non profit for a while. How do we set up a C corp? How do we set up a C corp? How do we set up a. Sam's like, oh, I Own like a couple points of stripe. Yeah. I think they have something called Atlas. You can make a C corp. Maybe he forgot a few clicks. Maybe he just forgot. Oh, if I only remembered about Atlas. If there was, if there was like a very, very specific reason, like the, the non profit had developed some IP at that point. Yeah. That meant that starting over or, you know, having to rebuild the team or whatever factor meant that that was like going to set them back years. Yes, that's, that's a big, that's a big deal. Yeah. And realistically, even like you can't. There's no indentured servitude. You can't keep nonprofit employees working there. Why is the horse the workhorse at OpenAI? Ilya Suts of horse button clean. Ilya was the workhorse at OpenAI. And you needed him to keep the excitement, keep working. He developed a ton of the foundational technologies at OpenAI. And if he wanted to work at a non and you say, hey, we're leaving to go do a for profit. Come over here. Who knows if he's going to come? And that applies to tons of different researchers that were instrumental in the development of what ultimately became ChatGPT and GPT 3 and 4. And so Elon gave them an invitation. Just go out and build a traditional venture backed company. Maybe I'll invest, maybe I'll be involved, maybe I won't. But at least we'll have a clean slate to start from. It would have been trivial to set up a new entity. As we discussed, you could start building a team and then you run the classic venture play. But Sam told Elon that he remained, quote, enthusiastic about the nonprofit structure. That was enough to get Elon to donate more. But OpenAI wasn't all in on staying in nonprofit mode. They were on the cusp of restructuring OpenAI and taking the $10 billion investment from Microsoft. The reality, see the reality of modern philanthropy. It's not fire and forget you don't. So big donors like Elon in this case do have specific intentions and conditions attached to the gifts. It's not like he's just throwing 20 bucks in the Salvation army donation box around Christmas. This is 30 something million. If you give that to a university and you want a building, they need to build that building. They probably need to build it to your specifications. Even if you want to put your name on it. Yeah, they might even put your name on it. And you can dictate these things in a nonprofit donation. And you can ask that they. That the donation is contingent on Those results, you can pursue specific directions. He has every right to demand results. Yeah. And meanwhile, during this whole period, Greg is writing to himself allegedly, that he cannot say, we are committed to the nonprofit. Don't want to say that we're committed if three months later we're doing B Corp and it was a lie, and then later saying, can't see us turning this into a for profit without a very nasty fight. His story will correctly be that we weren't honest with him in the end about still wanting to do the for profit just without him. Yeah. Before we continue our defense of Elon, let's tell you about Cognition. They're the makers of Devin the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. So a big part of this if and why Elon is going to win, why he should win, is that you can't just have corporate structure, remorse, OpenAI. You can't pull the plug on promises made OpenAI's own certificates of incorporation. Talk about creating a company quote exclusively for charitable purposes with the technology being intended to benefit the public. What's exclusively charitable about raising venture to build a subscription app with ads. That's not charity. Why are you doing that? Elon's right. Not only should Elon win this case against OpenAI, he will win this case. It's simple. A bunch of people, bunch of San Francisco elite tech guys, their fancy cars promise to build AI for Humanity. They took $38 million from one of their co founders based on that promise, then turned around and built a $500 billion for profit empire with Microsoft. It's a straightforward bait and switch story that will play well to 12 regular jurors in Oakland. And so that's the case. I mean, this is going to be the big challenge. Finding, finding 12 regular people in Oakland extremely offline. How illegal is it to try to be on a jury? Extremely. Stop trying to get on. Stop trying to get on the jury. Look, I said this. I'm going to vote. I'm going to vote in favor of whoever has the higher ARC AGI score. Okay? I'm just pro AI progress. Yes. Yes. I don't care at all about who wins. I just want better models. You just want better AI? Yeah. Whoever will build, whoever's scaling faster. Well, then I think you go with OpenAI. They have 50 billion in the bank. Dan in the chat. Dan in the chat. Ready to be a juror? We gotta get somebody in the chat. Somebody in the chat. Gotta get. Yeah, just get on in the corner while you're in Jury just like, hey guys. Yeah. In the chat. Yeah, I don't know. I mean this is incredibly dramatic. We're gonna hear a bunch of crazy storylines, learn a lot about the internal mechanics of both the elon Empire and OpenAI's world. But at the end of the day, OpenAI is signaling to investors, hey, the max damage is going to be 38 million, something like that. They did say it could be more. It could be more. Of course, it could always be more. It does feel like it won't be existential and it feels like it's more of a vibe war than maybe a true economic war. I mean, you could go back and argue that, that Elon should get pro rata equity at what it was effectively like a pre seed round that was done as a non profit. And that's 38 out of 120 that was raised in the nonprofit, something like that. So you give him. Is there any precedent for a company going for a blockbuster IPO while having this lawsuit that is really going at the foundation of the entity itself. You can imagine a company going public where they're in some process, legal process, with a former executive or a specific customer or even a lender on some. Individual deal. I can't think of anything this big ever happening. But OpenAI is a unique company and if anything, it's going to draw a lot of attention to the company. Yeah, it's interesting from the retail investor crowd. I think they're still going to be happy to be in this company even if this is all not settled. But it's really a question of is Wall street going to be on board? I think Wall street will underwrite it as there's a potential settlement that could be in the tens of millions, it could be in the billions. But at the same time you just calculate an expected value, take that off the valuation that you've built up. And if you're bullish on the long term value and cash flow of the business like you buy anyway, I think that's sort of what happens. Tyler. Okay, so I've been reading through some of the documents and so I just want to like add some other like details, please. So one thing is like, I think I'm reading through, like you can actually see the arguments being made. One of them is from the defense of OpenAI and that it's that Elon actually didn't directly donate to OpenAI. It was basically indirectly through a donor advised fund through OpenAI's fiscal sponsor, YC. And so because it's not direct, the idea of like, the specific charitable purpose doesn't actually, like, doesn't hold up. And that it actually just defaults to like OpenAI's. Yeah, because you donate to one entity and then that entity would have to make that claim so their direct communication doesn't necessarily pull as much weight. And then so there's like, there's a bunch of pages about the history of like how you actually define these things. So it seems like it's going to be just come down to like extremely like esoteric legal definitions of like, trust. Well, I think we're out of steel man mode. Geordi, of course, dons the Steelman helmet whenever he's trying to steel man. An argument. We thank you for putting up with our shenanigans and our props. Let me tell you about Vibe Co, where D2C brands, B2B startups and AI companies advertise on streaming TV, pick channels, target audiences and measure sales, just like on Meta. And speaking of ads, there's ads in ChatGPT. I like Raghav in the chat saying they're putting ads in ChatGPT to help fund the trial. Oh, sorry, that was actually Dave. But Raghav did say OpenAI is nothing without its lawsuits, which I think is very funny. Anyway, you want to know, let's go. Through some, let's go through some of the leaks, let's go through some of the ad details. We also have Sean Frank from Ridge joining to break down the ad landscape, whether he will be advertising ridge wallets in ChatGPT anytime soon. Yeah, part, part of, the last thing I would say there is part of OpenAI's defense is that through their actions they've created one of the most well capitalized foundations in history. Right. And I think that they're going to continue to lean on that. Novo Nordisk has a foundation themselves focused on biomedical research. And it's like it has. The estimate is that they have $167 billion. Okay. So that's why we're using the term one of the best funded. Because it's possible that the OpenAI nonprofit might not be the best funded in history. Although if the stock continues to rip, they will probably become the best funded in history. Well, there's a whole bunch of leaks and news in the timeline. There's so many documents that hit the timeline that it brought down all of X. And X actually crashed because so many people were logging on to read the Brockman files. Yeah, and there's one more quote that's worth reading through, which is that from the Greg Files from Greg Gate. Another realization from this meeting is that it'd be wrong to steal the nonprofit from him to convert to a B corp. Without him. That'd be pretty morally bankrupt. He's really not an idiot. Yeah. I mean, but that sounds like, you know, they. They were like, it would. It would be wrong to do that. And. And by their admission, like, they would argue that they didn't steal it from. The funny thing in here is like, the. And again, I love Greg and I feel bad that this is all coming out. Yeah. But his, like, very millennial coded writing. Yeah. Brockman further wrote under the heading, our plan quote, it would be nice to be making the billions. Okay, I didn't see that one. That's a funny one. I do think that there's a very odd wrinkle where Elon didn't invest in the for profit when any of those rounds were going. Like, the ships were so thoroughly burnt to a crisp that even when the new for profit was doing the round, he was not. There's at least we haven't seen a lot of emails or evidence saying, like, whoa, don't go with Microsoft. Like, at least give me right of first refusal. Let's do this at Tesla, and I'll be the financier and I'll take the equity. Like, I'm bullish on this. And, you know, you don't have to. I don't know how much that plays into the actual court case, but it is interesting just seeing like. Like, once the ships were burned and the. And the bridges were burned and the path started to diverge, like, they never really re. And you would think that, you know, if you wanted to continue, you would try and build a position one way or another, get some cap table ownership. It is odd that we're in a situation where Elon has zero equity in the OpenAI for profit. There were clearly many opportunities to get exposure, but again, bad blood. So who knows? Maybe at least Greg didn't go in front of Congress and say, I'm just doing this because I love it. Because that would make these other notes on. It would be nice to be making the billions. Yeah, for sure. But the other interesting thing is that. Do we know where Sam Altman sits in terms of equity? It's been going back and forth. There isn't a number. But in one of the documents, I lost it, but it said he had indirect exposure via yc. Okay, okay. Into the for profit as well. Yes. Okay, so look through exposure there. But then in terms of, like, an actual grant is There a number that's been thrown around. To my knowledge, nothing has been shared publicly other than the sort of idea of him getting around 7%. Okay. Okay. But yeah, that still feels low for. For co. Founder of a. You know. No, but that was happening. That, that's like po. That's like a lot of happened. Yeah. No, by that point makes sense. But you know, it, it. It's just like the Mark Zuckerberg or the Bill Gates or the, you know, or the Jeff Bezos scenario. I mean. Yeah. If anything, these files make a lot of Elon's kind of antics more understandable. He's been the one saying that they're morally bankrupt and here they just straight up say pretty morally bankrupt to steal the nonprofit from him. Yeah. I don't think anyone ever expected their. That language came out that was this specific about their moment to moment thinking during that point in time. Yeah. What's the phrase that Elon uses? Scam. Defaultman. Scamule. Scamule. Defaultman. The timeline is really so stupid. The Portmantez. But one thing that is real is that it's very clear that at some point the core OpenAI team was like, it's either like Elon as CEO, financial backer, like complete control. Like Greg Brockman said, this is the only chance we have to get out from Elon. Is he the glorious leader that I would pick? We truly have a chance to make this happen financially. What will take me to 1B? Which is interesting because there are definitely people that have been taken to 1B alongside Elon with Elon in the glorious leader seat. Like there are people on the Tesla train, there are people on SpaceX train where truly like they are completely hands off. Elon is the glorious leader of those companies. They don't have any control over Elon, but Elon has given them effectively billions and billions through either their direct work with the company or their investment in the company. There's a whole bunch of ways that those two things could actually be very compatible. Yeah. But it would be weird, especially if you want more of an egalitarian organization, more of an equal board, more of a. Well, you look at the. You look at the run that Sam has gone on and you could imagine a situation where they're sitting at the table and saying this boardroom ain't big enough for the two of us. Yep. Right. Yep. And it really feels that way. Big egos. Yeah. Yeah. Notoriously is able to. To draw in capital using many of the same sort of methods that Elon has. Yeah. I Do think the financially, what will take me to 1B? That's just a good question to ask. Everybody needs to be asking themselves this. Yes. This is something that should be taught in grade school. Really. I see people on Instagram reels all the time asking this question. Alex Hormozi makes reels about this. This. He's asking himself this question. The only other question is why aren't you asking yourself that question? You should. You should also get on 11 labs, build intelligent real time conversational agents. Reimagine human technology interaction with 11 labs, baby. Continuing with the timeline, a federal judge denied OpenAI's motion for summary judgment. The case is going to trial and Tyler's moving to Oakland. Oakland East Bay. Should we read through some of Alex Heath's coverage in Sources News and talk. About a scoop athlete that has really given Scoop God. I call him Scoop God. Really given Kylie over at Core Memory. I mean these two are just going head to head, right? Yeah, yeah. It is a knockout drag out fight for Scoop Scoob athlete of the year. But they're both doing great stuff. And Alex read through thousands of Pages in Musk vs Altman so you don't have to. We'll go through some of the summary here. There's some news about Ilya Sutskever. Ilya had early concerns about treating open source AI as a sideshow. In 2022, OpenAI's leaders seemed quite concerned about the prominence of Open Source. The Open Source lab Stability AI. We don't talk about stable diffusion that often anymore, but I believe Stability AI was the team behind that. Right. Imad Mustach, I believe runs it. Sutskever voiced his worry over text with Murati and others. Sutskever my trepidation around Open Source is that we're treating it as a sideshow. Eg def not going far enough to really hurt stability. So they're not taking it seriously. And if Open Source takes off, everyone could standardize on that. Vergov says bro, scooping harder than a Ben and Jerry's employee. Let's go. This is good. This is good. Alex, he's scooping harder than a Ben and Jerry's employee. We're gonna use that from now on. This is fantastic. Marati Mira said we're missing the opportunity. And let's just say Standard Mira is the real winner here. Yeah, she's winning today simply because the attention has shifted away from a good number of people leaving their own co. Founder Exodus drama firings. Who knows what's happening. But good to have the narrative Shift and the vibes move on to OpenAI versus Elon Musk. So Miramorati said, we're missing the opportunity to set standards with this massive growing group of developers. People are hungry to build things and we should lean in and bring our tech to as many people as possible long term, maximize our chance of maintaining lead, reducing competition. But if we do everything to get this in a couple of weeks at any cost out, because we heard stability is open, sourcing a similar model, that's not in line at all with my motivation. So reducing competition, never something you want to see in discovery, always something you want to see in a pitch meeting with a vc, but you usually don't want to put it in writing. OpenAI leaders were divided over early investor Reid Hoffman's decision to start a rival AI lab, Inflection and Reid Hoffman's interesting because he was one of the big early donors, I believe maybe 10 million, something like that, in the millions. And he has not joined the lawsuit. He has not jumped in and said, hey, I need equity in OpenAI. I'm also wrong to like Elon now. In order to make the claim that Elon's making, you need a lot more correspondence, a lot more proof of, you know, misleading around the donation. And I don't think Reid necessarily has that. But also he doesn't seem to be saber rattling about it. So there were already. They were also. Already. They were. They were also already considering prohibiting investors from backing competing labs from an October 2022 exchange. Sutskever. I guess I just felt betrayed by him founding a direct competitor while simultaneously telling me, quote, I could not possibly imagine you'd find it objectionable. And this is Inflection AI. Of course he'd find it objectionable. Inflection AI, which was ultimately sort of like acquired by Microsoft in that licensing. Deal, was that Mustafa Suleiman's company? I think Inflection Altman. Here's how I'd summarize my thoughts on this. Pros. He supported us in a moment when no one else would, and it was pretty existential. Okay, so we're learning more about the existentialness of certain donations when they came in. During the OpenAI nonprofit era, there are times when if somebody didn't come on, come in and write a check, it would have been very, very rough for them. And Sam says Reid helped out at a key moment. I think OpenAI would have been pretty effed if he hadn't stepped up. Also, he was instrumental in getting the first Microsoft deal done and has generally been quite helpful with Microsoft related stuff and he's generally a good board member. However cons he's very motivated by collecting status although I personally think he cares much more about OpenAI than inflection. He was blinded enough by the startup of being able to call himself the co founder of a company. He made an uncareful decision also at this point I think at this point OpenAI has the leverage to ask for a soft promise for new investors not to invest in in competitors. But only a select few companies ever get to do that and we heard stories of this during one of the bigger fundraises where even Glean was targeted as something that they didn't want their investors to also invest in. They wanted you to be open AI ride or die of course tons of funds said I'd like a basket of labs actually I'm going to invest. I would like broad based exposure exposure. And so I'm, I'm doing SSI and thinking machines that I'm doing anthropic too and I'm also, I'm also on the board of Meta and I'm also investing in OpenAI and XAI. You got to get a little taste of all of them. Brockman chimes in. He says oh also an aside after talking to Sam Altman I'm planning to meet Patrick Collison tomorrow in demo and demo dv3 will ask if he's interested in participating in the tender under the condition of not investing in AGI slash big model competitors. So we talked about the Brockman diary. Well yeah, the funny thing is he must like I'd find it hard to believe that he's not didn't get to 1 billion just off of Stripe. Obviously Stripe was much smaller back then but Greg was a CTO of stripe from 2010 to 2015. Stripe was founded in 2010. He was there for certainly longer than a four year vest so who knows. But we don't know about his consumption habits. He might have been selling off Stripe Equity as fast as possible. He might have been using shares to pay for coffee. It's like saying hey I'll give you a forward contract. I'm going to use shares if you give me a free cup of joe. Yeah. Santa Nadella was worried about Microsoft's position in AI when he started looking at open source. Stripe was in 2017 stripe was valued at 9.2 billion. Bunch of wee lads Stripe From Satya Nadella's deposition, the question to Satya Nadella, the CEO of Microsoft did you feel that your progress was moving more slowly than you had liked and the answer Satya Nadella says, I mean always as a CEO of a company, I feel my job is to sort of be dissatisfied with the rate of progress at all times. And so yes would be the answer. Which is both in the absolute sense, which is can we build products that are more capable in any particular domain? And also, you know, vis a vis competition. There were others achieving things that we looked at and said, hey, that's great. And also how can we make sure we're competitive with it? And so Satya Nadella was obviously motivated to invest and now he has a huge stack of OpenAI shop chairs ready to rock. Also, Satya Nadella almost wrote a book about an AI about AI called An Inflection Point. I think he definitely should write that book. That sounds amazing. According to an exhibit filed in the case, it was co written with Marco Ion City and was in development in 2023 from the first chapter on Wednesday, August 24, 2022, with the Pacific Northwest summer showing all of its beauty, Bill Gates hosted a dinner at his home in Lake Washington, just a few miles from Microsoft's campus. No longer a Microsoft board member or even Microsoft's largest shareholder, Bill remained the iconic co founder and trusted advisor of the company's senior technical leaders. Satya suggested the gathering, which included Chief Technology Officer Kevin Scott and a handful of top researchers. Food and drinks would be served, but the main entree was a hush hush demo by OpenAI co founder Sam Altman on a forthcoming release of ChatGPT, powered by GPT4, an AI built on large language models. Bill had long encouraged researchers to develop a truly accomplished AI assistant, but had voiced his skepticism about this particular approach. This sounds like I'm listening to an. Audible thank you CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches, baby. That's right, CrowdStrike. So that would be fun. I hope that book gets published. It'd be fun to have some of those little stories about. We don't. I don't feel like we don't have enough oral histories of AI, who is in the room at what time. I feel like there's a whole series of books to be written about OpenAI. I know that the writing they've written few, but most of them are sort of these like skeptical drama pieces. I'd be much more interested in two different books. One would be the technical histories, like exactly what researchers were doing what at what times. And also I want to know the feeling that was going through Ilya's head. And what was the vibe when he said, like, like, I'm hitting the button and I'm running the training run. What would you think? You're just describing Doorkech's book. Yeah, but the Scaling Era, an oral History of AI 2019-2025. So. Yes. And he interviews Ilya. Yeah, yeah. So I hear you on that. Being a great tour of AI progress across labs. Yes, I think I'm talking about within a single lab. Within a single lab. Your in the room account of, you know, narrow it just to like the GPT models. And so imagine the Scaling Era, but just for the product. Basically the acquired episode. Yeah, there's that. I mean, isn't there news that there's a book on Demis Hassibus that's coming out about DeepMind? That's going to be fantastic. It's written by Sebastian Malabi, one of the goats of business writing. He wrote the Power Law, all about the history of Silicon Valley. I know that book is going to be incredible, but. So I'd be very interested in the research side, how the research developed, who was doing what, and then I'd also be interested in the financial side. I want to know, okay, how did this SPV actually get done? What were the terms on this? Who was jumping in, in this round at what terms? Who were they talking to? Who were their LPs? Were their LPs skeptical? We've talked to and seen a little bit of the other side of that. And then layering in, layering in all of this information from the, like, dep. Like the deposition. Totally, totally. And some of these. Yeah, some of this evidence that's come out that we read. And so there are a few writers that will take different cracks at the OpenAI story. I think the definitive book probably has yet to be written, but. But it will come. And hopefully Satya Nadella can play a role in that because he's such a key figure in the full story. Vanta Automate Compliance and Security. Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform. I like a foghorn. Microsoft beat out Amazon when it initially started working with OpenAI. Elon Musk was opposed to working with Jeff Bezos and wrote the following in an early email to Sam Altman, he said, I think Jeff is a bit of a tool and Satya is not. So I slightly prefer Microsoft, but I hate the marketing department. Altman responded that Amazon had started, quote, really dicking us around. Yeah, such a crazy line. He's like, I don't like his Taste in champagne. Have you seen what that guy drinks in St. Barts? It's unacceptable. He should be taking that up another notch. And the. The sparklers. Sparklers. It's all. It's just over the. Very vulgar. You knew he was going to get mocked. Yeah, yeah. True, true. Yeah, I like it. I like a Tesla tequila over St. Bart's champagne bathtub. I don't know. Credit to Jeff. He, of course, was a bit more locked in during that era. So the upside on Microsoft's initial $1 billion investment in OpenAI was capped at 500 billion. Hopefully they hit that cap. From a filing written by Musk's lawyers in November 2018. After dinner with Sam Altman, Scott told Nadella that OpenAI's new corporate structure offered both, quote, a commercial vehicle for monetizing OpenAIP and investment returns capped at 500 billion. That's not bad. A 500x bagger is going to move the needle for Microsoft for sure. Altman claimed the nonprofit would eventually benefit because though OpenAI has yet to make a single dollar in returns, if OpenAI ever does get to 500 billion in returns, the balance over that, that goes directly to the 501C3. That's exciting. Microsoft's board initially approved a capital investment of 2 billion, but ultimately decided to limit its initial investment to 1 billion in the hopes that a smaller Investment would press OpenAI to commercialize. Satya. Hey, we got it. We can't give them too much. Let's put a little fire into them. Let's make sure that they're thinking about dollars, dollars and cents. Well, you see what you've seen. You've seen what happened with thinking machines. Give somebody 2 billion. Maybe less pressure to commercialize, maybe more money on weight. On weight. Weight Racks. Yes. Yes. In exchange for its investment, Microsoft received a convertible limited partnership, interest and rights to OpenAI's profits, with returns capped at 2,000% of its $1 billion investment. Microsoft CFO noted in an internal email that the cap is actually larger than 90% of public companies. And the limit on Microsoft's profits is not terribly constraining nor terribly altruistic. In fact, it was a good investment at Microsoft's request. True, OpenAI agreed to keep any mention of Microsoft's promise 2000% of return on its investment out of its public announcement. Imagine going to someone and pitching them, oh, we'll give you a 2000% return and then actually delivering it. What a crazy, crazy story. Gusto. The United platform for payroll, benefits and hr, built to evolve with modern small and medium sized businesses says get on it. Stop making excuses. The second update to Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI in 2021 included another $2 billion investment that wasn't reported and came with a lower upside. This is also a filing from Musk's lawyers. In March of 2021, Microsoft quietly invested another $2 billion in OpenAI. Neither OpenAI nor Microsoft publicly announced the investment, which was subject to a lower 6x return multiple. In place of its 2019 license to a single OpenAI model, Microsoft secured rights to commercialize any OpenAI model developed during the term of the agreement except AGI, facilitating its commercial use of OpenAI's IP. Microsoft was permitted to permitted to embed up to 10 of its employees on site at OpenAI. That's interesting. Anticipate Anticipating increased product commercialization, Microsoft and OpenAI agreed to share any results. Just three months later, in June of 2021, Microsoft released GitHub Copilot, its first product incorporating OpenAI's technology. Well, there are many, many more scoops in this piece by Alex Heath over at Sources News. So I encourage you to go subscribe, go sign up for his substack and read the full thing for yourself because there's a lot of interesting stuff going on. But we should move on to the timeline. There's so much more news. Let's find some post to run through. Everyone is having fun with financially. What will take me to 1B sitting on the edge of the bed. I love it. Feet up. You got to be asking yourself this. It's just so clear. This could have saved OpenAI from Elon. And it's a diary with a lock on it. I think the diary framing is like, like woefully wrong. That's probably the worst part of this whole thing is because most of the thoughts that Greg's putting out are completely reasonable. It's like, yeah, we shouldn't screw this guy over. Do we really want him to have complete authority? These are all reasonable things to be thinking out loud. It's just when you write them down, they get recontextualized in the courtroom. And then the fact that it's framed as a diary. Very questionable. Probably just I don't think it makes Greg look that bad because he wasn't. He wasn't. Ultimately, it's not like he was like secretly Sam's puppet master. No, no, no. And a lot of this went back and forth and there were lots of opportunities for both sides to yield. It was like a long, ongoing negotiation. But everyone's Picking their sides. Owen Sparks says case closed. Elon has open AI dead to rights. Based on this quote here. He wrote, can't see us turning this into a for profit without a very nasty fight. I'm just thinking about the office and we're in the office. And his story will correctly be that we weren't honest with him in the end about still wanting to do the for profit just without him. Bad luck. Absolutely. That's a bad one. That's a bad one. We will see. Anyway, we should move on from all this. Are there any other things in the timeline that we should run through here? Elon says they stole a charity, plain and simple. They're really on the. On the. For all the jurors. They're really going to have to. I imagine you get if it's Oakland, 12 people on the jury, I'd guess like four of them are driving Teslas. They're really going to have to go check all the cars, make sure they don't have the bought this before Elon went crazy bumper sticker on it. They're going to have to throw those. Those candidates. Well, they should also throw out any jurors that show up in Koenigsegg. Probably in the Koenigsegg owner meetup. And there are cars and coffee and they're like. Well, yeah, I mean, like, I don't know. The good thing, I don't really like. I don't like electric cars. Okay. I do have a bias against electric cars. I need a V12. And anyone who drives a V12, I'm gonna give them some leeway. I'm gonna give them some leeway. The thing about a Koenigsegg owners meetup is that a lot of them are probably not driving the Koenigsegg. Cause they don't work that well. They're not reliable. Frequently, it's been frequently reported that they're not quite reliable. The one day you get to start cars and cops. There's paparazzi there taking pictures of you. Just one of the chances. One of the chances. Seriously. It's the worst luck. The one day. The worst luck. The worst luck. Anyway, Sentry, good luck for your systems. Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast. That's why 150,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working. Elon holmarscatalog was asking ChatGPT what ChatGPT thinks and it says, if I were grading this purely as an analyst, not as an OpenAI model, the documents are legitimately bad. Brockman notes not ambiguous. I was asking Claude about this and it was very funny because it does. Because you can't not read into it like you're talking to someone at Anthropic because it's taking shots at both of them being like, oh, well, like, you know, Elon has XAI and that's a for profit, so he's a hypocrite. And like, maybe that's just objectively true and the model's just, you know, accurate. But it's funny just reading it in Claude's voice being like, Claude's sitting there being like, I don't like either of these companies. Yeah. Anyway, one more post. One more post. Elon said yesterday, we talked about this yesterday, he was quoting the Kalshi odds on his case against OpenAI. And he said, I've lost a few battles over the years, but I've never lost a war. I think that the. What this comes down to, though, is like, what is the same thing as, like, what is winning the AI race actually look like with China? What does Elon winning against OpenAI look like? So the odds now it's 68% chance will Elon win his case against OpenAI? That's up from 34% back in January 14th, just a few days ago. And so this new trove really did move the market, at least on Kalshi. So we will see where this goes. If the U.S. district Court in Northern California sides with Elon Musk in Musk vs Altman before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to yes, of course, this doesn't take into account appeals, which will obviously happen. And there's always the chance that there's a settlement before this. Although I think it feels like we're just past all that and we are fully in. It's going to trial. There's going to be some drama, there's going to be some courtroom sketches. So get ready because it's gonna be. It's gonna be beautiful. And I wonder who they're gonna call to testify. A whole bunch of people will be. Will be on. On the stand, presumably Joe Wiesenthal. What's he saying? He is highlighting Goldman raising 16 billion in record Wall street bank bond sale. Joe Wiesenthal says right here, right here, here. Toss to me, toss to me. Boom. Clean Joseph. Finally some good news. Huge congrats to Goldman Sachs. I've been following them a long time. The whole team and culture is so impressive. I can't wait to see where they're going and what they do. Next. Yes, yes, yes. Goldman's really just getting started. They are. They're really just. Today's really just day one. It's day one. Day one for Goldman. Willman, itis. He thinks of Goldman as kind of the ideal firm. Right. He has this idea of firm versus company. Yes, yes. Where the company is just the people. The firm is the core ethos. Sure, sure, sure. And Goldman is kind of the perfect firm. There are some absolute dogs over there. We talked about it a bunch, but one of the most legendary things going into the financial crisis, they know that real estate's going to sell off. They sell their corporate headquarters and lease it back for 10 years so they're not exposed to the financial risk of their building. You got to be careful if you're on the other side of a deal. If they're selling, why, why are you buying? Yeah, it's a good question. But fantastic firm, fantastic results from them and congrats, Joe. And speaking of the financial markets, you got to get in on them with public.com investing for those take it seriously. Stocks, options, crypto bonds, Treasuries and more with incredible customer service. Joe has some more news. Yes, he's newsmaxing some news out of AP Beijing. Breaking with the United States. Canada. Canada has agreed to cut its 100% tariff on Chinese electric cars in return for lower. Lower tariffs on Canadian farm products, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Friday. Carney made the announcements after two days of meetings with Chinese leaders. He said there would be an initial annual cap of 49,000 vehicles on Chinese EV exports, growing to about 70,000 over five years. China will reduce its total tariffs on canola seeds. A major Canadian. Okay, yeah. Canola oil. They're getting seed oils. They're like, we gotta have them. Okay, okay. Maybe this is part of a grander strategy. Oh. He's like, yeah, we need to. This is our version of fentanyl. So he actually did. Carney said that Canada's partnership with China sets US Canada up well for the New World Order. So this is the sea. Doors are the first steps. Yeah. That was a crazy quote. That was a crazy quote. When I first saw that, I saw the video, I was like, okay, like, funny, deep, fake. Yeah. Prime Minister saying, like, New World Order. We're excited for this New World Order, but it was real. Yeah. In other electric car news, Ford and BYD are in talk for car batteries. Let's give it up for some talks US Car makers need for. The US Car maker needs more batteries for hybrid vehicles because it's shifting away from the full EVs. You know, they cancel the Ford Lightning, but they are going to do a lot of hybrids and so they need a lot of batteries and they're calling up BYD to help with it. Ford and BYD are going to do a partnership or they're in discussions for it, in which the American carmaker would buy batteries from the Chinese auto company for some of Ford's hybrid vehicle models, according to people familiar with the matter. The two companies are still discussing how the arrangement would work. One idea is that Ford would import batteries from BYD to Ford's factories outside of the U.S. some of the people said talks continue and it's possible a deal won't materialize. The tie up, if completed, would pair forward with the largest Chinese car company that has struck fear in much of the auto industry over its ability to produce affordable models that carry sophisticated technology. For Ford, it solves a problem as the company pulls back from electric vehicles and ramps up its lineup of hybrids, it needs a battery supplier, and BYD is able to produce high quality car batteries. We talk to lots of companies about many things, a Ford spokesman says. A BYD spokesman declined to comment. That's a good comment. We talk to a lot of people about a lot of things. Why are you focusing on the Chinese batteries today? Stop calling me Ryan Felton from the Wall Street Journal. Move on. I talk to a lot of people. Before becoming one of the world's biggest carmakers in the world, BYD developed a robust battery manufacturing business, including batteries for hybrid models. It currently produces most batteries in China, but the company is building up capacity in its overseas plants as it expands to markets such as Southeast Asia, Europe and Brazil. Bernstein research estimated that BYD's battery shipments rose 47% last year to 286 gigawatt hours. President Trump's trade advisor, Peter Navarro, criticized the idea on X. He said, so Ford wants to simultaneously prop up a Chinese competitor's supply chain and make it more vulnerable to the same supply chain extortion. What could go wrong here? That's Peter Navarro on X. The trade advisor. Last month, Ford said it would pivot away from making electric vehicles in the face of slumping demand and take an expected $19.5 billion in charges primarily tied to its EV business. So very interesting news. Anyway, let's move on to the next big story of the day. But first let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is a platform commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on Mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents. Agents and relevant. Because the day has finally come not to see ads in chat gbt. That's true, but they're coming, they're coming, they're coming. We're talking. We're no longer in talks. We're no longer in advanced talks. We're talking about. In the coming weeks, OpenAI plans to start testing ads in ChatGPT free and go tiers. It's go time. Go tiers, Chat GPT, go. They said we're sharing our principles early on how we'll approach ads, guided by putting user trust and transparency first as we work to make AI accessible to everyone. We got a check in with Mark Cuban. With Mark Cuban. But they say what matters Most responses in ChatGPT will not be influenced by ads. That is, there's a firewall. There's a firewall. Editorial is over here. Ad sales is over here. They don't interface with each other at all. And so the models that generate the responses will not be aware of who's advertising on what. This seems extremely easy to do technically. Extremely good for product reliability. It's what the consumer wants. You want to know when you go to Google, if you scroll down far enough, you eventually get past the ads and you see the real results. And you're going to want that in your LLM. Even if there's an ad up at the top or in the middle, as long as it's clearly labeled, which they say they will be. So ads will always be separate and clearly labeled. Your conversations are private from advertisers. Plus, pro, business and enterprise tiers will not have ads. So I'm gonna have to downgrade. Yeah. Because I'm on the Pro $200 a month tier. But I want ads. I want to experience the ad products. So everybody's got a downgrade, but I. Think they're gonna be making way more than 200amonth off me on ads. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, oh yeah. Oh yeah. They're going to be advertising crazy stuff to me. They're going to be. Every other. Every other result is going to be Koenigsegg. Here's a McLaren F1 in your. In your area. You can go pick it up right now. It's going to be insane. Yeah. So people have been so concerned, specifically Mark Cuban. We obviously had him on the show to talk about this last year about this idea of, like, ads showing up in the results. And part of it, the reason I was never that concerned is like, if I Just search best backpack for men. Which is kind of a joke in itself because it's gonna tell you, Ridge, but, well, a man shouldn't wear a backpack in the first place. So sorry to any backpack super fans out there. Tyler. Oh, you're not a man yet. You're not 21. Oh, true. So you're good. You got enjoy your backpack years. Yeah, you should switch to a stainless steel briefcase that you handcuff to your hand. That's the correct thing for someone of your stature, someone of your importance. You got important stuff carrying around. But anyways, when I search best backpack for men, I can scroll down and find a Reddit result. It's the second result after Nordstrom. Sure, but they also serve me a bunch of ads. I don't assume that the best backpack for men is the first ad. Right. It's not like when it's clearly labeled and separated. I just assume this is an ad for somebody that sells backpacks. Yeah, but now I'm aware of that particular backpack. Yeah, maybe. So I think it's fairly aligned, right? Yeah. That's why I don't search like best backpack for men. I search best. Highest margin. Highest margin backpack, men's backpack. Cause you appreciate from the business of. The business of the business. You want to support business. Yeah. And then so I want to know what's the highest margin backpack for whoever I'm buying from. Then I go to shopping tab and then it tells me, okay, this is the highest margin one. If you want to support that corporation, make sure the most number of dollars flow to their shareholders. This is the backpack you should buy. Back in the chat says he uses a Spider man lunchbox. See, I can appreciate Spiderman lunchbox. And soon you'll be able to generate a sora of Spider man in ChatGPT. It'll serve you an ad for that Spider man lunchbox and the virtuous cycle of Commerce will continue. MongoDB Choose a database built for flexibility and scale. With best in class embedding models and re rankers. MongoDB has what you need to build. What's next? Anyways, so Plus Pro, Business and Enterprise tiers will not have ads. Yes, so super disappointing. They need to hammer, hammer, hammer. The first bullet point here. Responses in ChatGPT will not be influenced by ads. We know that. This is what they're going to do. Technically, it makes sense. It's completely the industry standard. Everyone knows that. Everyone in tech knows that this is how it works. But consumers will have all sorts of conspiracy theories. I mean, remember how Big the whole, like Facebook listens to your audio and then targets ads off of that. And there's been so many, so many, like viral conspiracy theories around how ads work, how monetization works on these platforms. There's going to be a huge amount of just noise out there basically saying that ChatGPT is polluted by ads, overly influenced by ads. And so they need to beat that drum really, really hard. It's good that they're doing it on the main account. It's good that they're doing with VGCMOs post, but they're going to have to, they're gonna have to emphasize this in comms on every podcast that they do, every announcement. Yeah, people seem to be really riled up about this. I'm seeing a bunch of comments on the post. They're upset. I don't get it at all. The whole point is that ads, ads have made it so that wonderful services on the Internet have been free for decades. They're generally aligned. Even target people report they like targeted ads. It's annoying getting an ad that's not targeted. Yeah, like, why are you, why are you wasting my time? I agree. This is funny. Somebody in here says some poor fifth grade teacher grading the worst World War II paper ever turned in when it suddenly starts talking about World of Tanks in North. Just copy pasting the ads, honestly. Maybe that's a feature though, you know, because you get two impressions. Two impressions? Yeah, there's going to be some hilarious hallucinations where someone's reading from their press release and they accidentally have an ad in there. Oh, that's going to be amazing. I love it. I love it. Well, the Wall Street Journal had a little bit of an Overview on this. OpenAI to begin testing ads and ChatGPT and push for fresh revenue. The company will be showing ads in the free version of the chatbot as well as its. Let's give it up for fresh revenue. Fresh revenue ads will appear at the bottom of ChatGPT's answers and be labeled interesting. The bottom of the answer, I want it at the top and the middle and the bottom. And I also definitely want to show the ads while it's thinking like, because you can run an ad auction and show an ad while you're waiting. I mean, Uber's done this while you're waiting for the car. There's no reason why that shouldn't be there, especially if you're doing a deep research report or anything. I do wonder how the ads will surface in the audio summary. So if you fire off a Deep research report. It throws an ad at the end. If you're listening to that audio, will that play the ad at the end? Will that sound like a podcast ad or will it sound like something else? Like, will it be clunky? I'm assuming that they're not doing audio in these. Right. Imagine if you do a Google search and it pops up a video. It's like trying to play sound. It's annoying. It could be you'd be throwing your laptop. Yeah, yeah. But I mean, a lot of times people will go to ChatGPT, fire off a query, and then when the query comes back, they will just hit the play the audio button. And will it read the ad as well? I don't know. Maybe. But the company said ads wouldn't influence the chatbots answers, of course. And that user conversations wouldn't be sold to advertisers. That also makes a lot of sense. Also, advertisers don't really. Well, to be clear, like, they will. My understanding is they will use what they know about you to offer better targeted ads to advertisers. They're just saying they won't explicitly be like, hey, we have. Here's this person's email and here's what they like and actually sell that specifically or even not. There's not even an option to go to OpenAI and say, hey, I'd like to buy 10,000 conversations about backpacks. That's not an option. What you can say is, you can say, I have a backpack. Find me some customers who want to buy backpacks. And they will say, sure, we'll do that. And we will go into the black box and, you know, sort and match you and give you the lowest cost per acquisition. You tell us that you're willing to pay five bucks per customer, $2 per customer. We'll get you $2 customers. We'll do our best. This is the auction model. Yeah. And the thing here is, don't want. If you are a business owner. Yes. You should be incredibly excited about this. Yes. Every time a major new ad platform has come out. Yes, it has. It. It is an opportunity to drive a tremendous amount of growth really, really quickly because they typically under. Under price. Under price the ads in the short room, in the short run, just to get volume, just to get a lot of customers in. And so when Sean Frank comes on later, we can talk with him about this. I remember, like, early days of like, Snapchat advertising, like Connor over at the Ridge was like, getting like, tremendous, tremendous results. Right. Yeah. Cisco. Cisco is critical infrastructure for the AI era. Thank you to Cisco for powering tdpn. Dean Ball is back on the timeline. We know Dean Ball. We know Dean Ball. He says flowers. No way. Reacting to the screenshot that flowers hint at math before numerous pottery made by people of the Halifian culture who inhabited northern Mesopotamia between 6200 and 5500 BC painted flowers with 4, 8, 16, 32 petals. Some of them have 64 petals. They were obsessed with exponential growth. They were obsessed with compounding. The power of compounding. It's the Claude look. It is the Claude logo. That's hilarious. I love it. It's amazing. Anyway, this is graphite. Graphite.dev graphite code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. Where would you like to go next? Has a fantastic post says had dinner with wife at a Mexican restaurant last night. Looked at the menu. They were trying to raise prices from $18 to $24 for her favorite entree. Wife was like, I think we can have Claude make this old waitress trying to Google to gouge us. They done one week Sprint. Claude cloned and replaced Cochinita Pabil and Carnitas. Restaurant manager freaks out. How do we solve this? This is going to happen so much in 2026. Just telling the restaurant owner that you're going to do it at home. We cloned your entree with with Claude. We cloned you. We cloned it. We cloned it. I just cloned it. This is pretty funny. Jeff Huber sharing this post from R. Teacher Every year these kids come back with a new annoying quirk. Claude boys are apparently the new thing in my 10th year of teaching, mostly freshmen. Ever since the pandemic, there's always a new thing students bring to school that they learned over the summer from the Internet or wherever. The newest thing here is a flawed of self proclaimed Claude boys who carry AI on hand at all times and constantly ask it what to do. They have their entire personality revolve around Claude prompting an AI. When we went around doing an icebreaker, four of the five kids some variation of I live by Claude and die by the clod as their fact. Just about an hour ago, when I assigned the first assignment of the school year, one of the Claude boys was bold enough to say, if Claude says I do it, otherwise I don't. I told him if he asked Claude, he would be getting a call home on the first week of high school. He asked it anyway and it said to do the homework. That's Amazing. This is a copy pasta from the Coin boys. Yeah, it's the same thing except instead of asking Claude, you flip a coin. You flip a coin boys. Coin Boys are apparently a new thing. This is very funny. I like the coffee pasta. This is amazing. Very, very funny. Well, you've been trying to make Jemmy Boys happen, which I think is underrated. We should get a copy of the whipped up of course, because we are sponsored by Gemini 3 Pro, Google's most intelligent model yet. They got state of the art reasoning, next level vibe coding, and deep multimodal understanding. I have some advice for Jeff Huber. He's the founder of Chroma and he's trying to change the world. And if he wants to change the world, he should raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. Jeff, it's that simple. Head over to the New York Stock Exchange. When you want to change the world, you raise capital. Call Lynn Martin. Call Lynn Martin. Let's get into the Mansion section. Let's get into the Mansion section. I've been waiting all day. The first big piece is about the great property transfer. Gen Xers and Millennials will inherit trillions of dollars of real estate over the next decade. And it's already reshaping how luxury homes are bought and sold. So over the next decade, roughly 1.2 million individuals with net worths of over $5 million are projected to pass down more than 3.38 trillion globally. That is a huge amount. Real estate is poised to play a significant role in the great wealth transfer. Gen Xers and Millennials are set to inherit 4.6 trillion in global real estate over the next 10 years. And this is why it's so important to win the genetic lottery when you're born. We didn't I won't be inheriting anything. But stop making excuses and maybe get a time machine and go back in time and be born to someone with a luxury estate that you can inherit. Yes, maybe even multiple. We are so M6. Let's kick it over to M6. What are some parents are buying earlier and bigger it isn't a new phenomenon for well off parents to give children a helping hand in securing a first home. But at the high end of the market, agents say more parents aren't waiting for kids to inherit their wealth, they are buying them luxury properties sooner. It's reshaping the definition of luxury real estate as more sellers cater to the tastes and preferences of a younger generation. The price points have gone wild, said Ian Slater, a COMPASS agent who works with ultra wealthy families In New York, I used to commonly see people buy 3 million to 5 million apartments for their 25 to 30 year old kids. Now I see them buying 15 million to $30 million apartments for their kids. That is absolutely crazy. When you're buying for children. Co ops are a real no. Now, since many co op boards want the occupants of the units to be financially independent, by contrast, condos offer flexibility, which especially, which is especially. What makes you, what makes you more financially independent than having a trust fund that just. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I guess if you're at a co op, you want to just be around other people who like, aren't Nepos or something. You want people who have like built their own businesses or something. Something. I don't know. Well, I won't, Yeah, I, I there. I won't stand for Nepo. Slander. Slander. Yes. Yeah. Seriously. I love, I love when a Nepo utilizes every available resource and just absolutely dominates. Yeah, it's beautiful. You got to appreciate it. Well, let's look at Gene Hackman's Santa Fe compound, which just lists what did. How did he, how did Gene Hackman make his money? Actor. You didn't know that? No, I don't. This guy was born in the, in 1930. He's amazing. He's a Hollywood icon. He's not a hack. No, he's not a hack. French Connection, Unforgiven, Superman, the movie. Enemy of the State. That's where I know him from. Enemy of the State's a great movie. He's in the Firm. Is this on the movie list? He's in the Firm. Are any Hackman movies in the TVPN chat movie list? Behind Enemy Lines. That's a great movie. About a downed fighter pilot or spy. U2 spy plane. I think it's Owen Wilson who goes down and crashes and needs to get back to his team to his side. It's a fun ride. I recommend it. So nearly a year after the shocking death of Hollywood icon Gene Hackman and his wife Betsy Arakawa, at their compound In Santa Fe, New Mexico, the couple's 53 acre estate is coming on the market for just $6.5 million. I had no idea that Santa Fe, New Mexico was so affordable. We were looking at a place in Nashville which I would put at the same level as Santa Fe. John, I gotta stop you there. Explain. I mean, saying that. Is this a bit saying at 6.5 million, it's so affordable? It is. I mean, we looked at a $3 billion bedroom apartment that was like $25 million in Nashville last year or last week. This is 13,000 square feet, 53 acre estate and it's one fifth of the price. I'm just saying like on a relative basis, do you go Santa Fe at 6 and you get 53 acres or you're living next to John Fio and you paid 25 mil, which one would you go for? Okay, pick it, pick it. Which one would you go for? I'm going Santa Fe all day personally. Hackman, the two time Oscar winner. Let's see, there will be some buyers who just adverse to purchasing property, blah blah blah. Let's move on to Washington D.C. where the prices are way up, way over 6. 6 is. 6 is low compared to this $28 million home. It's DC's most expensive home and it's now owned by the owner of the Washington Commanders, Joshua Harris. And this is one of those interesting things where you can build a massive private equity firm, a massive financial institution. Josh Harris of course built Apollo, the co founder of Apollo, but he's known as the owner of the Washington Commanders. Even though that's not like his life's work. It's an interesting thing, but when you buy a sports team, that's the thing that follows you around forever. And so the billionaire investor Josh Harris, the owner of Washington Commanders NFL team, and his wife Marjorie Harris have paid $28 million for a storied Washington D.C. landmark with plans to return it to its original use as a single family home. The sale is a record for the city. It's known as the Halcyon House. The federal style building in Georgetown dates to the late 1700s. The roughly 30,000 square foot house, which has a large garden with a pool in the back, wasn't publicly listed at the time of sale. And then the deal happened quietly off market. Would you live in a house like this, John? 100%. I knew it. Absolutely. Would you not? It's amazing. This style of architecture is extremely depressing to me. What do you mean? This is like the lindiest thing. You know who, you know who lived there, you know who lived here first. This was built for the first Secretary of the Navy. No, I understood. Benjamin Stoddard. You are inhabited. I understand the appeal for you, but. And what is depressing about this? This is a beautiful house. Is it not enough light or something? I don't know. Potentially. If they like did a pretty hardcore remodel to it. Really, really brought it. What's not to like? It looks beautiful. I don't understand it just looks a little too vintage. Ridiculous. It does have a crazy like there's. A roof inside and it looks like a frat house. Do you see this? It does kind of look like a frat house. It looks like. Why do you have a roof inside under your roof? Do you see what happened here? It looks like they just built another house. An addition on. On top. And so yeah, there is some chaos here. It's a little too fratty for me. It looks like the beer. It looks like the floor would be sticky. With the floor sticky. Somehow I don't think this $28 million property has a sticky floor. But you never know. They have three TVs up there. That's sort of fratty. You watch three different football games. Well, if you own an NFL team. You got to watch all the games. Yeah. The market. The previous record in D.C. was set in 2024 when Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick purchased Fox News anchor Brett Byers Foxhall Estate for 25 million mark. And Hunter McFadden of Compass represented Dr. Cuno in the Georgetown sale. Harris was represented by Sotheby's International. Figma. Figma make isn't your average vibe coding tool. It lives in Figma so outputs look good, feel real and stay connected to how teams build, create code backed prototypes. And I hate to interrupt the mansion section, but we have to pull up this video from the Houston Texans. They are. Their new video is Call of Duty themed. No way. And I just gotta wonder. Oh, we created COD. Yes, 100% created the. Well, let's switch over to reacting to. The latest video from the Houston in the timeline. And while we pull that up, here it is. What is this? Can we get. The match begins in 4. Eliminate the enemy team. The hit marker. The hit marker Sounds good. Long shot. It's so funny because we were just talking earlier this week we did the hit marker sound effect. Hit marker sound. Air raid. Air raid kick. What Sound effect. UAV online. Another hit marker. UAV online. That's us. That's not them. Right? That was you. We got to figure out if they did this if, if they did this before. Good. The graphics package. The I, I, I didn't realize how iconic the text was in in cod. Deep glow right there. The, the, the glowing letters. That's just COD to a T. They really nailed that. That's very fun. I wonder what inspired that. Anyway, let's move on to the last story in the mansion section. But first, let me tell you about Railway. Railway simplifies software deployment, web apps, servers and databases run in one place with scaling and monitoring and security built in. So this is a renovation. I want your take on this renovation. A Texas couple transformed a 945 square foot room into a space where they could watch sports and entertain friends. See, this looks fantastic. Thank you. This is what I want to see. This is what I want to see. On the last property. I want to see this more level of Renault to the last property. But I feel like this does capture some of the opulence, some of the details, some of the texture. This is not flat. White walls, there's lots of layers, there's trim. I like the blue, the way it goes, the brown, the gray couches, everything sort of like harmonizes, but it's not bland, it's not flat. There's a lot of detail and layering there. Even behind the tv you see a sort of like textured backsplash. I think they did a fantastic job on this. And they spent $465,000. So when financial consultants Damon Cronus and Julie Cronus decided last year that it was time to renovate their game room, they wanted to keep it fun for the two teenagers, but add a layer of sophistication. You always gotta do that. They're in their early 50s and they drew inspiration for their new entertainment lounge during a visit to Manhattan and a stop by the UBS Arena Preview Club, a temporary showroom for the arena's premium space under construction. Styled in vintage hues of rich gold and deep blue with dark brown wood, the space Dark had just the upscale feel they wanted for their home. They brought in pulp design studios and they transformed it. The owners wanted it to look like a lounge, like a private sports club. We took the inspiration and created our vision to suit their needs and lifestyle. The 945 foot square square foot space was designed for versatility, allowing guests to enjoy different activities at once. It was tailored to host movie nights, lively cocktail parties and Sunday football gatherings. The room had to have maximum flow for people to move about. And so you see they have a horseshoe couch, but there's a gap in the middle so you can flow around either way. So it's kind of like two L couches nestled next to each other. Very, very smart. Two Ls. The custom making a W. I like it. The custom two piece sectional sofa set them back $26,000 and it allows guests to move in and out of the. See, you can tell the floors are not sticky here. Yes, definitely. Which is key. The room is narrow and we didn't Want to have a sectional that you had to walk all the way around. And so for additional seating, ottomans pull out from under the coffee table. Swivel stools accompany console tables beside the sofas. Tall stools are tucked under the nearby bar top. And custom banquet hugs a curve of windows. Performance fabrics and durable materials were chosen to endure active crowds. They're not letting the beer soak the walls. They got performance fabrics and durable materials in there. They're not worried about a sticky floor. A sticky floor here, a sticky floor there. It's gonna be okay. They're gonna mop it up. Those performance fabrics are built to handle the stickiest beer, maybe even the athletic brew. Some athletic brews, you're chugging athletic brews, you're spraying them all over, you're cheersing, slamming them on your head. And they get on the form of fabrics. Now, honestly, Athletic Brewing, which we have a few here. Athletic Brewing really needs to do a hard sell to Cheeky Pint and be like, look, you guys are hardly drinking. We can tell. We'll have to ask him if he uses Stripe currently because maybe there's a man washed the other deal there. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We can tell you don't have it in you to get hammered on podcast, but we want you to be able to enjoy the taste of beer. Yeah, I like that. A little cheeky. Athletic brewing. I like that cheeky brew. Beyond watching sports across two TVs, the family enjoys competition of their own. Oversized Scrabble board hangs on the wall to set the tone. They spent $25,000 on a table. Who knew tables can get so expensive? We've been looking at tables. I mean, I feel like we did. We're just trying to get a new table. I know we want a bigger table. We want a slightly bigger table. Awesome features, but very quickly you get up into these big numbers. So the table, the round Cambria table was crafted from man made quartz with a metal base. We bolted the base to the floor because Damon and Julie wanted to be sure it wouldn't topple around the teens. If people are getting hammered down there standing on the table, they don't want it falling over. So they bolted it to the floor. The chandelier set them back $3,900. The Cavallino X large radial chandelier from Visual Comfort adds sculptural interest and focus lighting to the game. Table chairs, 2,400 bucks each, covered in Everly fabric. Having coasters, casters allowed them to move freely. Perfect for group activities. You can move them around the window shades, $12,000. Motorized Roman shades create a blackout environment that's ideal for TV watching. That's a cool feature. And the banquet cost $27,000. The bottom is covered in ultra suede green and ochre from Crovat and the back in Lulu velvet from S. Harris. We had to do a custom banquet so that it fit the curve of the window to maximize seating. They're all about maximizing seating over here. Well, congrats. And also Finn AI, the number one AI agent for customer service. If you want AI to handle your customer support, go to Fin AI. What other news do we have? Jordy, tell me Harmonic. Harmonic Idea is investing in math. How much? They're investing in Vlad's AI startup, Harmonic. They're investing 120 million. Emerson Collecting Collective is also joining as a new investor alongside existing backers Ribbit, Ribbit, ribbit. We need a frog sound effect. Mickey Malka's Dublin down. Or Mickey. He's a big Robin Hood Index and Kleiner. Yeah. We'll have to talk to the Sequoia folks about how Harmonic fits into the post AGI age because we have Pat Grady and Sonia. What if it comes out that Harmonic is just working on a ChatGPT style app to help kids do math problems? That's it. That's the play. Yes. It's a trillion dollar opportunity. Yes. I love it. Well, we have our next guest in the Restream waiting room. Let me tell you about Label Box while we bring him in. Get in the box. Real reinforcement, learning environments, Voice robotics, evals, and expert human data. Label Box is the data factory behind the world's leading AI teams. And we have. Ooh, nice and cold. Athletic brewing hazy IPAs. I will enjoy one of these while we bring in our guest, Bill Shufelt from the Restream radio room. Welcome to the TV Fit Ultram. How you doing, Bell? Incredible to be here. Love the show. Thank you so much. Even though I'm east coast and not in the AI world, I just sell things that hurt when you drop them on your feet over here. But it's a huge fan of the show and so excited to be here. Yeah. So great to have you. I was just trying to remember I listened to about 90 minutes of you on a podcast. It must have been like four or. Five years I listened to you on Logan Bartlett. That was a fun one. Yeah. You've done a number of. He's great. Yeah, yeah, yeah. He's awesome. What do you think about the pitch of getting. Are you familiar with the cheeky pint podcast from Stripe. Have you seen this? I love it. Yeah, I'm actually thinking about cold emailing them together. So the elephant in their pub is that they're not really crushing beers. They're not getting actually drunk. And so I think you should make a special edition for the team over there so they can really see athletic. Start indulging.
Described losing over the years. We're trying to bring those back, bring the social connection back, get people out multiple times a week. But I think that, like, the clearest way I think I could say this isn't like why I think it's such a big trend is, you know, the overall beer category, per the brewers association, is north of $100 billion in all retail sales. Craft beer itself is 28 billion, supposedly, per the Crappers Association. If you go back like 50 years, light beer was one of the biggest megatrends to ever hit beer. And that is an enormous part of the beer category today. But that was a huge trend up until about the turn of the millennia. And then we started to see people. Well, the light beer trend was driven by the nutritionals, where people wanted superior nutritionals to what existed previously. Then you had big trends in craft beer and flavored RTDs, which were light beer might not have that flavor. We want to have the nutritionals, but the flavor. And where non alcoholic beer comes in is all the experience, superior Nutritionals. It's about 20, 30% of the calories plus all the flavor of great craft beer. And it's emerging in this new big megatrend that I think has really good line of sight to be the next huge thing in beer. And I'm a very delusionally optimistic person, but I do think non alcoholic beer would be significantly bigger than craft beer and a huge part of the overall beer category. The future. Yeah. Where. Where else in beer is there, like, meaningful growth? Well, that's also the problem too, is every other, like most CPG overall, but especially Bev alk, all the innovation is like a one for one substitute for the same consumer in the same occasion. And. And even some of them are like, you're substituting one thing for many. Like a THC drink is a one for like six substitutes. And so what we're doing is we're bringing in like a lot of people drink our beers within the same night as alcohol. 80% of our consumers drink. So we're bringing a lot of people back into the category. Plus 25% of our drinkers are new to beer altogether. So, like, this is really additive to the beer world for the first time. Yeah. And then, yeah, as you think about those occasions, there's just a lot of occasions to layer in, I guess, on the broader beer category too. The last few years have been the worst beer years of our generation in alcohol for a number of reasons. I think part of it is the category is not connecting to the next wave of consumers. If you look across the spokespeople in the major brand TV ads, most of them in their 70s, one of them's in their 80s, one brand's about to bring back an 87 year old spokesperson from 10 years ago. So, like, this is a cohort. This, like this is not the cohort. We need to meet like, it is like, we are bringing beer for the modern, healthy, active adult. We have great aspirational athletes and chefs and people behind it. But more than anything, we're just trying to build, like a really timeless brand. And I could share more about our marketing and how we're thinking about that differently, too. I want to get to that. But first, I want to know about what how is your business different or similar to other beer companies that are higher alcohol? Do you need to be 21 to buy this? Are you subject to the.
By that point makes sense. But, you know, it's just like the Mark Zuckerberg or the Bill Gates or the, you know, or the Jeff Bezos scenario. I mean, yeah, if anything, these. Yeah, these files make a lot of Elon's kind of antics, like, more understandable. Like, he's been the one saying that they're morally bankrupt and here they just straight up say pretty morally bankrupt too. Steal the nonprofit from him. Yeah. Like, yeah. I don't think anyone ever expected that language came out that was this specific about their moment to moment thinking during that point in time. Yeah. What's the phrase that Elon uses? Scam. Defaultman. Scamule. Scamule. Defaultman. The timeline is really so stupid. The portmanteaus. But I mean, one thing that is real is that it's very clear that at some point the core OpenAI team was like, it's either like, Elon as CEO, financial backer, like, complete control. Like Greg Brockman said, this is the only chance we have to get out from Elon. Is he the glorious leader that I would pick? We truly have a chance to make this happen financially. What will take me to 1B? Which is interesting because, like, there are definitely people that have been taken to 1B alongside Elon, with Elon in the glorious leader seat. Like, there are people on the Tesla train. There are people. SpaceX train, where truly, like, they are completely hands off. Elon is the glorious leader of those companies. They don't have any control over Elon, but Elon has given them effectively billions and billions through either their direct work with the company or their investment in the company. Like, there's a whole bunch of. Of ways that those two things could actually be very compatible. Yeah. But it would be weird, especially if you want more of an egalitarian organization, more of an equal board, more of a dynamic. Well, you look at the run that Sam has gone on, and you could imagine a situation where they're sitting at the table and saying, this boardroom ain't big enough for the two of us. Right. Yep. And it really feels that way. Big egos. Yeah. Sam notoriously is able to draw in capital using many of the same sort of methods that Elon has. Yeah. I do think the financially, what will take me to 1B? That's just a good question to ask. Everybody needs to be asking themselves this. Yes. This is something that should be taught in grade school. Really. I see people on Instagram reels all the time asking this question. Alex Hormozi makes reels about this. He's asking himself this question. The only other question is, why aren't you asking yourself that question?
Five different fronts. Let them build, let them cook. Yeah. It's worth noting that this is the. This is what winning, like today is what winning looks like for Elon if he gets a. If he gets like the damages awarded and he gets $38 million. Yeah. He's like, nice. I can fund XAI for a week if he gets some points in OpenAI, right? Yeah. He's like, great. This is not a material jump in my net worth or even my influence or power, whatever he's looking for. This doesn't really get me one step closer to Mars. Right. It doesn't necessarily align. So the wind state right now is just being disruptive. Right. Basically buying XAI time, putting OpenAI in a position where they are trying to go public. Right. And they've got this massive high profile trial going on. The helmet is really adding a lot to this conversation. I love it. The chat loves it too. Jordan in a night helmet is what winning looks like. So anyways, really thinking. Yeah. Let me tell you about Plaid Plaid Powers, the apps you use to spend, save, borrow, invest in securely connecting bank accounts to move money, fight fraud and improve lending. Now we have fireworks today.